Airtable's 80% off value crash: VCs explain why it's still a win

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Today's show:

*Airtable just sold for $2.25 billion, an 81% drop from its peak of $11.7 billion. On this week's TWiST VC Roundtable, Aditya Agarwal (South Park Commons), Niko Bonatsos (Verdict Capital), and Rick Heitzmann (FirstMark Capital) break down why the venture world sees this as a good outcome, not a financial disaster.

By declining the deal, would Airtable's team have just been delaying the inevitable? Is the fact that they reached $400M+ ARR on its own a reason to celebrate? Find out why our investor panel prefers unwinding a stuck situation rather than chasing a growth rate that's no longer sustainable.

PLUS Robinhood's booming prediction market business, the secondary market flap over Anduril shares, why so many VCs shy away from "vice" categories, and a glimpse at how insiders are talking about the Apple-OpenAI lawsuit.

Guests

Aditya Agarwal on X: https://x.com/adityaag

South Park Commons: https://www.southparkcommons.com/apply

Niko Bonatsos on X: https://x.com/bonatsos

Verdict Capital: https://verdictcap.com/

Rick Heitzmann on X: https://x.com/rick

FirstMark Capital: https://firstmark.com/

Relevant Links

Airtable: https://www.airtable.com/

Bending Spoons announces Airtable acquisition: https://investors.bendingspoons.com/newsroom/bending-spoons-agrees-to-acquire-airtable

Constellation Software: The Anti-Conglomerate: https://www.eaglepointcap.com/blog/constellation-software-the-anti-conglomerate

Introducing Robinhood Ventures Fund II: https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/introducing-rvii/

Quartz: Robinhood posted record quarterly revenue: https://qz.com/robinhood-record-revenue-prediction-markets-earnings-073026

Riot Games: https://www.riotgames.com/en

AngelList's USVC Fund: https://usvc.com/

Baseten: https://www.baseten.co/

OpenEvidence: https://www.openevidence.com/

Hermes Agent: https://hermes-agent.org/

Granola: https://www.granola.ai/

Timestamps:

0:00 VC intros & Bending Spoons buys Airtable

9:19 Why growth is the only metric that matters

9:45 Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://www.vanta.com/twist

20:52 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to https://agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life!

26:25 When should VCs sell in secondary markets?

30:55 Odoo - The all-in-one business platform. Get started for free at https://Odoo.com/twist

35:38 Robinhood's prediction markets are exploding

43:13 The USVC-Anduril secondary controversy

46:18 How VC firms use open source models

58:43 Telling the real founders from the grifters

1:02:38 Why Apple is suing OpenAI

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