Erich Schaffer: “Water Vapor Feedback, Part Two” | Tom Nelson Pod #406

Erich Schaffer critiques the “super greenhouse effect” and argues that tropical outgoing longwave radiation stays flat mainly because tropospheric temperature is sluggish relative to surface temperature, not because water vapor amplifies greenhouse trapping. He says regional and seasonal proxies for water vapor feedback are invalid (citing admissions by Ramanathan/Inamdar and Dessler et al.) and claims interannual proxy results are distorted by aspect-ratio choices and improper OLS regression, advocating TLS or rotated-benchmark methods. Reanalyzing published plots (Spencer, Lindzen-Choi, Chung, Andy May), he concludes water vapor plus lapse rate implies strong negative feedback and low ECS (~1 K). He also alleges data “fudging” and broader scientific incompetence.

00:00 Super Greenhouse Effect

02:20 OLR Calculations Explained

03:28 Troposphere Sluggishness

05:32 Ramanathan Admission

10:23 Feedback Breakdown Math

12:37 Two Proxies Debunked

14:05 Revisiting Interannual Proxy

16:02 Bad Regression Plotting

17:16 Aspect Ratio Distortion

23:45 OLS vs TLS Regression

30:53 Negative Feedback Emerges

33:22 Spencer Regression Mystery

37:45 Lindzen Choi Critique

41:03 Fixing Lindzen Plot

51:17 Recent Andy May Example

53:21 Rotate Plot Method

55:19 Benchmark Slope Trick

57:38 Questionable Outliers

01:01:26 Proxies Fall Apart

01:02:22 Lapse Rate Physics

01:05:45 Tropical Hotspot Feedback

01:11:10 AR6 Codependency Critique

01:14:24 MODTRAN Water Vapor Test

01:19:44 Emission Altitudes Explained

01:25:22 Net Feedback and ECS

01:27:17 Blunders and Sociology

01:40:54 Q&A and Takeaway

01:44:44 Bonus Coal Math Error

01:47:42 Wrap Up

Erich Schaffer: “Water Vapor Feedback, Part One”: https://youtu.be/2O4mOf9gk-s

https://x.com/erich_schaffer

https://greenhousedefect.com/

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