Top Traders Unplugged
Discover the fascinating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his remarkable co-hosts. Each week, we bring you compelling conversations with legendary investors, leading economists, masterful traders, and forward-thinking thought leaders. From Trend Following and Global Macro to Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, and Volatility, we uncover the strategies, stories, and lessons behind their success. Gain actionable insights from industry veterans as we celebrate their achievements and learn from their challenges. Stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of investing – tune in weekly and elevate your financial knowledge. For the latest episodes and expert insights, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com
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OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG Capital connects with clients and prospective investors. In the second part of the conversation, Asam and Moritz speak about AG Capital’s style of trading, how they position size, why they take concentrated positions, how their methods differ from those of systematic trend following funds, and what their current long-term and short-term investment themes are, touching on gold, Bitcoin, copper, natural gas, and some other markets.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital
06:48 - What defines a great hedge fund?
12:13 - How do you find clients as a hedge fund?
18:32 - Creating world class in-house operations
25:32 - Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios
35:05 - How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower
39:16 - Why Ghaffar enforces a fixed number of positions
41:40 - What is so cool about stocks?
46:16 - Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure
51:36 - How Ghaffar approaches gold
54:05 - Why AG Capital stays away from Bitcoin
01:01:54 - Is China actually more democratic than the US?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver
With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught out attention recently?
01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable
02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules
05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy
07:33 - Industry performance update
16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?
27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following
37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment?
41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different?
52:26 - Why are bond investors contrarian while equity investors extrapolate?
01:01:59 - "What if you missed the best days of a market?"
01:11:53 - Rounding up
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor scarcity, and immigration limits are quietly rewiring the system. Inflation may not fall the way people expect. Profit margins may not hold. And capital may start flowing away from the US for the first time in a generation. This isn’t a cycle call. It’s a question of what kind of economy we are becoming—and whether portfolios built for the past can survive what’s coming.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Bob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:58 - Revisiting the Income Driven Expansion
12:30 - Inflation Dynamics and Economic Policy
15:31 - The Dynamics of Labor and Immigration
27:58 - Strategic Decoupling and Its Implications
32:04 - The Economic Implications of Manufacturing in China
42:13 - Economic Growth and Market Dynamics
48:28 - The Evolving Landscape of Investment Strategies
53:25 - Understanding Alpha Strategies and Portfolio Diversification
01:01:10 - The Dynamics of Hedge Fund Strategies and Correlation
01:09:34 - Global Macro Trends and Financial Decoupling
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git
Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlook strategies that offer the most structural value. Through a series of new research papers, they examine how negative correlation, volatility, and capital efficiency can outweigh standalone performance, and why trend following continues to challenge conventional assumptions. It’s a conversation about construction over conviction, contribution over headline returns, and the gap between what improves a portfolio and what investors are willing to own.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - Introduction and latest update
07:57 - Trend Following score card
12:38 - Latest paper from R.G. Niederhoffer
26:45 - Latest insights from Quantica Capital
36:55 - Review of Soc Gen's latest report on the state of the CTA Industry
44:52 - The Science and Practice of Trend-following Systems paper by Artur Sepp
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK SI353: From Tariffs to Trends
- LINK SI353: Keeping up with the Trend-Followers
- LINK SI353: The Science & Practice of Trend-Following Systems
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less by challengers abroad than by fractures at home. They explore how rising debt, political entropy, and institutional strain are converging in ways that markets are only beginning to price. From the quiet retreat of safe haven flows to the uneasy future of central bank independence, this is a conversation about slow shifts with fast consequences, and what happens when credibility, not currency, becomes the liability.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Barry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:09 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen
03:51 - The Future of the Dollar: Concerns and Predictions
14:29 - Fiscal Challenges and Policy Responses
33:04 - Analyzing Economic Policies and Their Impacts
49:18 - Global Economic Perspectives: Trade Wars and Currency Alternatives
56:46 - The Future of Global Currency Systems
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas
Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, the challenge isn’t just strategy design — it’s deciding what still counts as signal. They explore how systematic managers are rethinking volatility targets, why certain constraints persist in institutional portfolios, and what recent underperformance may actually be revealing. This episode is less about solutions than about orientation: how to stay aligned when the tools evolve faster than the terrain, and when conviction must coexist with doubt.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:01 - Introduction to Systematic Investing
02:11 - The Impact of AI and Machine Learning on Data Analysis
07:05 - The Impact of AI on Education and Examination Policies
12:06 - Transitioning Perspectives on Democracy and Markets
21:49 - Dynamic Volatility Targeting in Portfolio Management
24:24 - Exploring Volatility and Leverage
29:50 - Understanding Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics
36:29 - Exploring Investment Constraints and Strategies
45:04 - Rethinking Investment Constraints
49:36 - Strategic Allocations and Market Timing
56:11 - Market Dynamics and Trend Following
01:00:09 - The Evolution of Systematic Investing
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
UGO03: This Isn’t 2008. That’s the Problem ft. Benn Eifert
Back on the Cboe floor, Cem Karsan sits down with Benn Eifert to trace the fault lines shaping today’s volatility regime. They dig into why market structure, not just macro, is driving outcomes... from the reflexive cycles of implied vol to the growing influence of structured product flows and zero-day options. With correlations breaking down and dispersion rising, Benn makes the case that path matters more than magnitude. It’s a conversation about what happens when liquidity fragments, when the Fed can’t step in, and when legacy playbooks stop working. Quietly technical, deeply contextual, this one rewards a careful listen.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:11 - Introduction... setting the stage
03:01 - Understanding Options and Market Dynamics
09:47 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Administration
11:41 - Market Volatility and Structural Changes in Trading
19:00 - The Impact of Structural Changes on Market Volume
26:13 - Understanding Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation
30:23 - The Impact of Interest Rates on Investment Strategies
34:21 - Understanding Zero DTE Options and Their Market Impact
39:50 - Economic Outlook: Tariffs and Interest Rates
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan
As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who focus on standalone market behavior and those who manage trend as a portfolio-level phenomenon, and explain why that distinction now matters more than ever. From the ripple effects of tariff policy to the quiet fragility in institutional positioning, this episode traces how structural shifts are colliding with legacy assumptions. Also on the table: AI’s growing role in model development, the hidden costs of bad data, and what it really takes to build a resilient, scalable process in a world where noise is cheap and conviction is rare.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing
03:55 - The Shift Towards AI in Trading
11:25 - The Rise of Idiosyncratic Trend Following Post-2020
21:42 - The Impact of Recent Market Dynamics
25:39 - The Rise of Retail Trading in Futures
34:09 - The Panama Method of Historical Adjustments
42:32 - Understanding Backtesting and Data Integrity in Trading Models
47:36 - Navigating Capital Constraints in Trend Following
55:14 - Understanding AI in Trading Strategies
01:00:14 - The Challenges of AI in Trading and Strategy Development
01:04:44 - The Impact of AI on Humanity
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI16: Return Stacking: Form, Function & Friction ft. Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler
Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler joins to unpack the mechanics of stacking returns inside an ETF — not as a branding exercise, but as a way to navigate the hard constraints of scale, structure, and investor behavior. They break down how Return Stacked blends top-down replication with a bottom-up trend engine, why most investors misunderstand what replication actually captures, and where the fault lines lie between mutual funds and ETFs. From margin management and bid-offer spreads to the limits of liquidity in a product built for growth, this conversation surfaces what it really means to package active strategies for a public wrapper — and what gets lost, or found, in the process.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - Introduction to Corey Hoffstein & Adam Butler
09:06 - How Hoffstein and Butler see the trend following industry going forward
12:24 - The possibilities and constraints of trading ETFs
20:52 - The philosophy behind their trading strategy
27:26 - How they calibrate their model to accommodate markets changes
32:03 - How they incorporate replication in their strategy
35:50 - Their process behind capturing beta
46:42 - The benefits of adding a longer tail for markets
49:25 - How much volatility can trend followers tolerate?
54:23 - How they maintain balance in their trend following portfolio
57:37 - Implementing different types of return streams
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI350: Why All Roads Lead to Higher Yields ft. Alan Dunne
Why are markets still priced as if the old world is coming back? Alan Dunne and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine the case for structurally higher yields — not as a risk, but as the regime. Drawing from Alan’s recent writing, they trace how debt levels, policy incentives, and investor complacency have converged into a feedback loop that central banks may no longer control. From Japan’s bond signals to the quiet retreat of fiscal discipline in the U.S., this episode maps a shift that’s already underway. For investors still relying on yesterday’s models, the risk isn’t missing the turn...it’s not seeing that we’ve already made it.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing
10:52 - Global Macro Picture: All Roads Lead to Higher Yields
17:26 - The Evolution of Economic Policy and Debt Dynamics
29:55 - The Influence of Economic Policies on Inflation and Growth
40:13 - Market Trends and Investor Sentiment Survey
45:08 - Navigating Market Expectations and Historical Trends
59:34 - The Importance of Diversification in Investment Strategies
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL39: Is Trump Making Europe Great Again? ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
We're diving deep into some serious discussions about the shifting dynamics in Europe, particularly how the political landscape, especially with Trump's influence, is shaking things up. Economists Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels who authored a compelling book on the New World Economy, argue that Trump's policies might actually be a wake-up call for Europe, pushing it to innovate and stand on its own. We explore the concept of multi-globalization, where emerging markets are stepping into the spotlight as global trade partners, and how the geopolitical climate is driving this change. We also touch on the implications of these shifts for global markets and the economy, especially in terms of energy and raw materials. It's a thought-provoking chat that challenges our views on dependency and the future of Europe in a rapidly changing world.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Koen on LinkedIn.
Follow Philippe on LinkedIn.
Learn more about their book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Welcoming back Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
04:05 - What is multi globalization and how does it apply to today's global economy?
11:57 - Is it safe for European companies to rely on U.S tech?
19:01 - The future of Europe
24:52 - The forces driving gold
29:04 - Investing in the physical metals vs investing in the miners
31:08 - How climate changes impacts raw materials like copper
37:36 - How the energy transition impacts investor sentiment
42:32 - When will AI make an impact on productivity?
48:44 - Start investing in yourself
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI349: Navigating the Age of Uncertainty with Trend Following ft. Mark Rzepczynski
In this episode, Niels and Mark Rzepczynski examine a market where the usual relationships have broken down. Bonds offer no shelter, volatility moves without conviction, and political intervention keeps distorting the signals investors rely on. What once served as protection now feels unreliable. Behind the headlines on tariffs, inflation, and eroding trust in institutions lies a deeper question about how to navigate when the frameworks built for one regime are carried into another. With a balance of macro insights, behavioral nuance, and hard-earned skepticism, this conversation looks at what really drives returns when narratives shift faster than the data.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - What Caught our Attention
04:16 - The Impact of Supply Chains on Global Trade
08:51 - The Complexities of Trust in Economics
17:45 - Understanding Trend Following in Financial Markets
27:18 - The Age of Uncertainty
32:51 - Understanding Market Uncertainty
36:52 - More than One Type of Uncertainty
49:53 - The Fallout of Trend Following
01:01:22 - The Dynamics of Safe Assets
01:02:41 - Transitioning from Concepts to Practical Insights in Trend Following
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM82: The Surprising Success of the U.S. Economy ft. Elroy Dimson & Kiran Ganesh
America's recent economic performance has been a surprise, as it's managed to outperform many other markets over the last quarter century. We review the insights from the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, discussing how the US has thrived and what that means for future investment strategies. Our guests, Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh, share their expertise on market trends, the importance of diversification, and the implications of recent economic shifts. We also explore the complexities of factors like equity risk premium and the evolving role of bonds in an investment portfolio. Join us as we explore these themes and consider what’s next for investors in a changing global landscape. You can read the Global Investment Returns Yearbook here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Elroy on LinkedIn.
Follow Kiran on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 - Introduction to Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh
09:21 - What kind of feedback do they get from clients?
13:04 - Stocks for the long run?
17:41 - Is the US losing its grip on its economy?
24:08 - Are indicies becoming more crucial for portfolios?
25:39 - Ranking equity markets according to risk
27:22 - How often should we expect economic collapses?
29:13 - The surprising outcomes of bonds
34:00 - Bonds - are we returning to 1999?
38:31 - Which asset classes are the optimal inflation hedges?
40:47 - Where do most of their returns come from?
41:56 - How they approach the evolving interest rate landscape
43:49 - The state of Bitcoin and alternative assets
49:59 - Key insights to factor investing
54:38 - Is value investing becoming structurally more challenged?
55:48 - Performance expectations in the major asset classes
57:36 - Advice for constructing a solid long term portfolio
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evolved in ways that undermine its edge? From the seduction of short-term models to the unintended consequences of complexity, this conversation traces how well-meaning enhancements may be compounding the very problems they aim to solve. Layer in political volatility, crowded positioning, and allocator fatigue, and the path forward looks less like innovation and more like rediscovery. This episode isn’t a defense of recent results... it’s a clear-eyed look at what happens when a strategy built on discipline gets pulled off course, and what it takes to steer it back.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:20 - Reflecting on Apple and China's Tech Revolution
17:28 - Shifts in the Market Landscape: The Influence of Trump and AI
20:03 - The Dynamics of Negotiation in Real Estate
30:15 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Central Banks
39:26 - The Changing Dynamics of Market Trends
48:00 - Evaluating Investment Strategies and Performance
53:19 - Navigating Market Challenges and Expectations
01:08:34 - The Future of Investment Strategies
01:11:10 - Navigating Market Changes
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
UGO02: Inequality, Inflation, and the End of Consensus ft. Jim Bianco
What if the volatility we’re seeing is not a pause in the cycle, but the start of something lasting? In this episode, Cem Karsan sits down with Jim Bianco to unpack the forces reshaping the market and the political landscape around it. From the roots of labor unrest in 1880s Chicago to rising tariffs and inflation today, they trace how decades of policy widened inequality and fractured the middle. This is a conversation about debt, power, and the limits of the old playbook. The Fed may no longer be able to step in. Passive investing may no longer offer safety. If you are still positioned for the past, this episode is a clear signal to rethink what comes next.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Jim on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:01 - Introduction to Jim Bianco and Bianco Research
06:36 - The big macro picture view
16:02 - The financial inequality is at an all time high
22:51 - The power of generational wealth
24:07 - The imbalance of politics - something has to change
27:47 - Why we will see a major shift in how we invest soon
30:19 - How the economy is changing
36:10 - What defines a strong economy?
40:58 - What is Trump talking about?
45:36 - The outlook of the economy
53:33 - The core of the political problems in the US
55:16 - How to benefit from the current market volatility
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI347: Stagflation, Storytelling, and the Search for a New Hero ft. Cem Karsan
Today Cem and Niels dissect a world quietly shifting beneath our feet.
As markets hum along, Cem explains why the real story lies beneath the surface: a structural liquidity drain, a creeping stagflation that defies familiar playbooks, and a political regime shift few are pricing in. From Buffett’s exit to dollar fragility, elite endowments tapping the bond market, and oil diplomacy with geopolitical undertones—this is a conversation about change in motion.
But this episode doesn’t stop at markets. It’s about the narrative arc of societies under stress—about whether the West can summon the unity and courage to face its next great test.
Insightful, urgent, and layered - this is the episode you will look back on and say: the clues were all there.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:17 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:54 - Industry performance update
08:44 - Inflation is coming - what now?
16:43 - The Fed is stuck and the Trump administration is changing
26:07 - If US debt defaults, what is left?
29:32 - Are we experiencing the decline of the dollar?
40:19 - The OPEC game
43:21 - Reflecting on the conversation with Demetri Kofinas
48:33 - What is courage as a society?
50:49 - The West is being disunified...on purpose
53:22 - Do we actually know who or what the real enemy is?
58:58 - Cem's latest market forecast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM81: What If Everything You Believe About Markets Is Wrong? ft. Demetri Kofinas
What if the biggest risk in markets today isn’t volatility, inflation, or geopolitics - but the stories we believe to be true? In this unfiltered and thought-provoking episode, Demetri Kofinas joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a piercing conversation that challenges how we process information, construct narratives, and make decisions in uncertain environments. This isn’t about market forecasts - it’s about how easily our thinking can be hijacked. From the corrosive incentives of financial media to the quiet ways conviction becomes cognitive quicksand, Demetri argues that investors today are drowning not in data, but distortion - misled by institutions built to entertain, not enlighten. Yet this episode is more than critique. It offers a path forward - one grounded in introspection, discomfort, and the discipline of intellectual honesty. For anyone managing capital - or simply trying to see clearly in a noisy world—this is a conversation that may shift not just your positions, but your perspective. Because the greatest edge in markets isn’t a model. It’s clarity when others are lost in the fog.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Demetri on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:21 - Introduction to Demetri Kofinas
04:39 - The era of financial nihilism
11:44 - The birth of a radical optimism?
20:10 - The risk of not heeding the call
26:16 - The dark side of smoothing the business cycle
29:14 - What have we lost in the vacuum of consequence?
33:39 - The collapse of the social contract
38:25 - The importance of a unified narrative
47:16 - Technology - a driver of unity or disunity?
50:05 - The role of government in libertarianism
53:12 - How far are we from a fourth turning?
56:25 - Crisis is a perception relative to where you are
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI346: Is the Trend Still Your Friend ft. Rob Carver
This episode is all about understanding the nuances of trend-following and how current market dynamics are shaking things up. Together with Rob Carver, we discuss the turbulence that hit financial markets in April and how that affected Trend Followers, as well as how Rob navigated the last 12 months as a trend follower. Plus, we explore the intriguing topic of safe haven assets, questioning if traditional choices like U.S. treasury bonds still hold up under pressure. We also explore a paper that the discuss the pros and cons of simplicity over complexity in strategy design.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:59 - Society is going crazy
09:47 - Industry performance update
16:22 - How to capture the bounce in trailing stops
23:20 - Industry performance numbers
25:18 - Q1, Niall: What books would you recommend for a young quant entering the CTA space today?
29:05 - Reviewing Rob's annual trend following performance
36:26 - Should we start to rethink our approach to drawdowns?
40:45 - How do we stop investors from projecting market expectations to trend following performance
44:16 - How Rob defines slippage
50:12 - What if we base our trend system on one indicator?
54:18 - Does this trend following thing still work?
58:56 - Getting to know the founders of trend following
01:01:09 - Rob's approach to leveraged ETFs
01:07:27 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL38: Our Dollar, Your Problem ft. Kenneth Rogoff
What if the most dangerous thing in the global economy isn’t a shock — but the quiet collapse of the frameworks we still rely on?
In this rare, unfiltered conversation, Kenneth Rogoff — Harvard professor and former IMF Chief Economist — joins Kevin Coldiron to confront the reality that’s too uncomfortable for most policymakers to admit:
The world has changed. The models haven’t.
Rogoff explores what happens when inflation refuses to respond, debt compounds beneath the surface, AI reshapes productivity, and geopolitics redraws the map — while central banks keep playing by yesterday’s rules.
This isn’t a call for panic. It’s a call for intellectual honesty.
Because in a world where the past no longer explains the present, clarity is the only edge that matters.
If you manage capital — or ideas — in a world built on assumptions, this episode is for you.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Kenneth on X and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:01 - Introduction to Kenneth Rogoff
03:04 - What is at stake if the dollar loses its dominance?
09:13 - How Trump tariffs are destroying the dollar
13:27 - What are the alternatives to the dollar dominance?
19:18 - How increased military spending could strengthen the European currencies
27:19 - The Chinese Yuan is evolving
36:01 - The potential for alternative stable coins
43:25 - The perks of currency dominance
44:26 - Why dollar dominance gives us lower rates
52:05 - Are we entering a new era of currencies?
54:55 - What form will the financial repression take?
59:24 - How Rogoff would deal with the U.S debt
01:03:21 - We are gambling on rates
01:06:31 - Its time for the profession to wake up
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI345: From Chaos to Clarity: The Power of Systematic Investing ft. Nick Baltas
This episode is all about exploring the intricacies of market behavior, how trends shift, and what that means for our investment strategies. We’re having a serious chat about the impact of recent market fluctuations and how they influence our approaches to trend following. Together with Nick Baltas, we’ll touch on the dynamics of crowding in trades and how that shapes investor sentiment. So, grab your headphones and get ready for a straightforward, no-nonsense journey through the latest trends and insights in the investing world.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:59 - What has caught our attention recently?
09:44 - We are entering an era of new market drivers
15:31 - Why gold might be overrated
17:34 - The challenges that investors are facing at the moment
21:26 - Pension funds - reasons for concern?
25:05 - Industry performance update
27:08 - How Baltas' models react to the current markets
30:46 - Industry performance numbers
32:57 - Q1, Tim: Should an allocator into trend following strategies keep holding on to the winners or switch between trend following strategies?
43:35 - Q1.1, Tim: Based on his models, where does Nick currently see crowded trades, and what is his assessment on crowdedness / positioning in equities where things have been particularly choppy?
47:15 - Q2, Dimitri: I’m curious whether Nick sees banks allocating more resources to systematic strategies in credit over the next few years?
51:12 - Deep dive into economic trend
58:29 - Discussing Katy Kaminski's & MAN Groups latest paper on crisis and corrections
01:06:31 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI15: Navigating the Commodity Markets with Calculo Capital ft. Ole Hansen & Philip Carlsson
Today, we're diving deep into the world of commodities with Calculo Capital, a short-term quantitative hedge fund based in Denmark. Our guests, Philip Engel Carlsson and Ole Hansen, share their insights on how they navigate the fast-paced commodity markets using machine learning techniques. We explore how their focus on liquid markets and short holding periods allows them to capitalize on price movements driven by supply and demand imbalances. The conversation also touches on the current trends in commodities, like the rising demand for precious metals and the impact of geopolitical events. Join us as we uncover the strategies behind Calculo's approach and what sets them apart in the investment landscape.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Ole on LinkedIn.
Follow Philip on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - Introduction to Calculo Capital
03:53 - The state of today's commodity markets
10:35 - Commodity performance numbers
11:34 - What is driving the increased performance in the precious metal markets?
15:35 - How the commodity performance impacts the way Calculo Capital is trading
16:48 - Why do Calculo Capital only focus on commodity markets?
18:12 - What kind of commodities do they trade and why?
19:50 - What is a supply/demand imbalance and how do you spot it?
21:23 - It's all about price
24:49 - How they find the optimal trading position
28:57 - How they apply machine learning in their trading
32:16 - How they execute trades
33:48 - What has attracted Ole Hansen into investing in Calculo Capital?
39:51 - Why is Calculo Capital based in Denmark?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI344: Trend Following during Trump Tariff Turmoil ft. Katy Kaminski
In this episode, we explore the current market dynamics and discuss Katy Kaminski's latest research paper on crisis and correction alpha, which provides insights into how CTA strategies are navigating turbulent times. We also touch on the importance of understanding how trends shift and the implications for various asset classes. From examining the impact of correlation and volatility in risk management to discussing the nuances of different trading speeds, we aim to equip you with a clearer perspective on what to expect from these time tested strategies, which forms part of the latest wave of Portable Alpha offerings. Join us, as we find out how you can uncover opportunities in these challenging market conditions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:58 - Industry performance update
08:33 - What are the most interesting markets according to Kaminski?
14:06 - Industry performance numbers
15:31 - Crisis or correction?
22:04 - A historical perspective - we have been here before..
28:50 - Crisis alpha or Chaos alpha?
33:01 - Why are managers' performance so different this time?
39:20 - It's all about the long game
41:42 - The trend following trading speed is shifting
50:18 - Should markets be treated differently in terms of speed?
52:18 - Advice for building strong trend following portfolios
57:37 - The role of correlation and volatility in trend following
01:07:45 - The search for crisis alpha continues
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL37: Hate the Game? How to Navigate Life's Economic Challenges ft. Daryl Fairweather
Discover how to navigate the complexities of personal and professional decisions through the lens of behavioral economics. Kevin Coldiron speaks with Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the book "Hate the Game," who shares insights on using economic principles to tackle everyday challenges, from negotiating salaries to understanding workplace dynamics. They explore the importance of empathy and perspective-taking in decision-making, emphasizing that understanding the rules of the economic game can empower individuals to succeed despite systemic inequalities. Fairweather discusses her own journey in economics and the lessons learned from her experiences, including the value of strategic thinking in competitive environments. This conversation is not only enlightening but also serves as a practical guide for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills and career trajectory.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Daryl on X and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Daryl Fairweather
07:30 - Choosing games and assessing probabilities
13:14 - How do you know if your boss is a jerk?
14:03 - Why it is important to be aware of how you present your resumé
16:23 - What happens when algorithms take over the hiring process
17:19 - Should you de-emphasize your resume if you are overqualified for a job?
19:22 - A real life example of recency bias
22:34 - How to minimize recency bias when designing systems
24:42 - How to master the promotion process through backward induction
28:26 - The key steps to get promoted and get higher salaries
29:40 - Fairweather's approach to negotiating salaries
36:46 - Why men and women should handle workplace conflicts differently
39:27 - How Fairweather would solve the challenges of the housing market
43:21 - Reflecting on the new Californian housing laws
47:10 - What was Fairweather's favorite chapter in her book?
47:50 - What did she exclude from the book and why?
48:23 - What is the target audience for the book?
49:28 - Why is the book called "Hate the Game"?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI343: CTAs: The Unexpected Heroes of Market Crises ft. Yoav Git
Together with Yoav Git, we’ll explore how market conditions are shifting and what that means for investors, especially in light of recent bond market movements. It’s been a wild ride lately, with unexpected changes in correlations between stocks and bonds, and we’re here to break it all down. We’ll also touch on the implications for trend-following strategies and how they can adapt in these turbulent times. So, whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious, hang tight as we unravel these complex topics together!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:39 - Are there more to the Trump Tariffs than meets the eyes?
09:53 - What is actually a safe haven asset today?
11:50 - Industry performance update
15:15 - Git's trend following perspective on fixed income
17:25 - Trend following performance numbers
21:39 - What you can expect from trend following during a crisis period
30:31 - What we can learn from the current economic events
34:27 - Key insights to achieving diversification
40:40 - Achieving better performance through trend predictors
45:01 - How CTAs interpret diversification in a unique way
50:03 - Are we experiencing more dispersion today than previously?
57:57 - The symbiotic relation between time and price in a trend following strategy
01:09:43 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU149: Risk, Return, Repeat: The Portable Alpha Revival ft. Razvan Remsing & Alan Dunne
Today, we’re diving into the world of portable alpha and how it can really shake up your investment game. Alan Dunne and I are chatting with Razvan Remsing from Aspect Capital, who shares that this concept isn’t new but is gaining traction again as allocators look for ways to make their portfolios work harder. With everything going on in the markets, it’s essential to think about how different strategies can fit together, especially in a world where traditional asset allocations might not cut it anymore. We’ll explore the benefits of a multi-asset approach and how CTAs can play a crucial role in managing risk while seeking out returns.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Razvan on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
01:28 - Introduction to Razvan Remsing and Aspect Capital
06:50 - A critical time for portable alpha products
18:25 - The evolution of the sophistication of investors
25:44 - Why trend following is the magic sauce to your portfolio
33:07 - Are investors sleeping on portable alpha strategies?
37:07 - The state of the CTA space from a global macro perspective
45:14 - The total portfolio approach
52:48 - Razvan's perspective on replication strategies
58:14 - Key advice for working with clients
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI342: From Trend Following to Super Determinism ft. Richard Brennan
Together with Richard Brennan, we’ll explore how current market uncertainties are shaping investor sentiment and prompting a massive shift in how we think about financial systems. As we navigate through some heavy topics, we also touch on the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach in a world where noise can easily drown out the signals. Expect insights on the evolving landscape of trading, where we emphasize the necessity of aligning with processes rather than predictions. Join us as we unpack these ideas and their implications for both our trading philosophy and our understanding of the market dynamics at play.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:24 - What has caught our attention recently?
12:58 - The damage of leveraged ETF products
15:38 - Reflecting on the trend following performance of Q1
25:18 - Industry performance numbers
26:42 - Super determinism - how it impacts our trading
41:59 - The relationship between science, trend following and the universe
55:36 - Understanding complex adaptive systems as a trend follower
01:13:36 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
UGO01: Reflexive Markets, Real-Time Risk: The Dawn of the 0DTE Era ft. Mike Green
In the premiere of U Got Options, Cem Karsan is joined by Mike Green for an unfiltered, high-conviction conversation straight from the floor of the CBOE. Together, they dive deep into the explosive growth of 0DTE options - now driving over 60% of S&P volume - and unpack how this shift is quietly rewiring market reflexivity, volatility dynamics, and the path of dispersion. With stories from the pits and sharp macro takeaways, this episode sets the tone for a series that goes beyond the headlines to decode the real forces shaping today’s markets. Raw. Insightful. Essential.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - Introduction to Mike Green
07:39 - How and why 0DTE options have changed the investing landscape
17:23 - Implied volatility is changing - what does it mean for investors?
25:18 - How periods of relative stability impact investor behaviour
31:03 - The unwind of passives - is the system under pressure?
39:51 - What are prices actually telling us?
43:31 - Why this cycle might be different
48:52 - What makes a long lasting investor?
54:17 - A deep dive into passive flows
57:18 - Individualism in investing - are we becoming too separated?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI341: Nothing Good Happens Below the 200-Day Moving Average ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Alan Dunne and Mark Rzepczynski tackle the current market vibes, focusing on how factors like the 200-day moving average can shift market sentiment and affect portfolio strategies. As they navigate through the choppy waters of market performance, they discuss the importance of understanding uncertainty versus risk and how it impacts decision-making for both individual investors and managers alike. There’s also an exploration of how curiosity plays a crucial role for fund managers in adapting to ever-changing market dynamics. Join us for an insightful discussion on making sense of today's investment landscape.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:09 - Industry performance update
06:22 - How markets and managers respond to tariffs
09:39 - Are we talking ourselves into a recession?
12:55 - Why the distinction between risk and uncertainty is important
16:26 - What is price telling us about market noise?
24:06 - How quant traders should approach uncertainty
28:59 - How the current economic landscape shapes systematic trading
31:52 - Feedback loops, reaction functions and monetary policy
36:05 - Advice for dealing with uncertainty as an investor
41:36 - Curiosity as a characteristic in fund managers
50:30 - Are quants more curious than discretionary traders?
53:55 - Mark's perspective on portable alpha
58:33 - All you need is equity exposure?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL36: Democracy, Money, and the Central Bank - A Risky Balance ft. Leah Rose Downey
Our guest on this episode is Leah Downey, Junior Research Fellow at St. John’s College Cambridge and author of the new book Our Money: Monetary Policy as If Democracy Matters. Independent central banks are thought to be necessary to prevent politicians using monetary policy to influence elections and to avoid dangerously high levels of inflation. Is this really correct? Is it really healthy for a democracy to allocate so much power to a very small group of unelected people? Why is monetary policy considered ‘too complicated’ for politicians when equally complex areas like energy and defence are not? Is more uncertainty in monetary policy actually better for long-run economic stability? We tackle all these questions as we explore Dr. Downey’s view that the way we govern central banks needs to change.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Learn more about Leah on her website and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Leah Rose Downey
08:36 - A comic flimsy ground
10:34 - Examples of the tension between legislators and Fed
15:21 - Legislators have become a weak economic muscle
19:32 - The complexity of tax policy
25:19 - A better way to manage a central bank
32:08 - The monetary system is like a set of pipes
34:00 - Why efficiency is not always the top value
37:42 - The core philosophy behind Downey's project
40:42 - Why there is a need for a rechartering discussion
44:34 - Should the US economic system be more democratic?
50:20 - "To sustain a democracy over time, the future must be uncertain"
53:55 - Investors should take democratic politics more seriously
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan Dunne
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?
But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:41 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:14 - A new era for Germany?
10:02 - The ETF space is on fire
11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll
12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective
21:39 - Industry performance update
27:07 - An analysis of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook
34:29 - Why are expected returns so far off real returns in the Pension Fund space?
41:07 - The cycle of returns
46:07 - When trend following hits capacity
53:56 - Why Niels is concerned about new replication products
58:52 - Can trading few markets actually provide more diversification than trading many markets?
01:03:40 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU148: CTAs - The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood ft. Rob Carver, Graham Robertson and Yoav Git
Today, we’re diving deep into the world of CTAs and their role in investment portfolios. We discuss the balance between focusing on a single asset class versus a multi-asset approach, emphasizing that different asset classes offer unique utilities to investors. Our guests share insights from their experiences, highlighting the importance of tailored execution strategies and how technology can enhance trading performance. We also explore the growing interest from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock in trend-following strategies, raising questions about the future of CTAs in institutional portfolios. Join us as we unpack these themes and share our thoughts on the evolving landscape of systematic trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
04:02 - Introduction to Yoav Git
06:16 - The background behind Graham, Rob and Yoav's relationship
12:15 - What is common about people working at Man AHL?
15:47 - Should you focus on single or multi asset classes?
24:58 - The state and outlook for fixed income and
29:47 - Liquidity and how it plays a role in alternative markets
36:09 - Are investors misunderstanding liquidity?
37:28 - How do you actually measure and think about liquidity?
39:50 - Why are CTAs not widely represented in portfolio?
49:14 - How to understand and master execution
58:01 - Research and technology in systematic trading
01:02:36 - "My love for you is like a magnitude 6 earthquake, your sharpe ratio makes me tremble in size"
01:05:00 - Are we at a turning point for trend following?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI339: CTAs vs ETFs: The Showdown That Could Change Everything ft. Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel
Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel joins us to talk about the current state of global markets and the pivotal changes affecting our industry. We’re all feeling the shift in dynamics, and we’re here to unpack how that impacts our investing approaches. From the rise of new ETFs to the ongoing debate about the future of managed futures, we’ll cover it all. So grab your headphones and get ready for some straight talk on trends, volatility, and what it means for all of us as investors.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:11 - Industry performance update
14:30 - Wild moves in markets
16:55 - Trump dumps on Trump trade
26:23 - A wealth of products - is it just a phase?
35:16 - The developments in the CTA space
36:21 - Are we trying to engineer the impossible?
41:45 - The pros and cons of inflection points vs short term models
50:28 - Why do CTAs replicate the way they do?
57:36 - Are the new ETFs threatening the CTA franchise?
01:01:56 - Discussing performance in the CTA space
01:09:22 - The use of QIS strategies in trend following
01:13:52 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO29: What Every Investor Should Know About Valuations ft. David Giroux
Leveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these ideas and explore what they mean for the future of investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Read more about David here.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to David Giroux and T. Rowe Price
09:00 - Are mostly sectors overvalued?
11:43 - What has driven the change in valuations?
13:48 - How Giroux determines how much risk to allocate in markets
18:19 - The outlook for equity returns and Giroux stance on AI
21:42 - The relationship between market meltdowns and interest rates
23:29 - Giroux's outlook for inflation
28:32 - How Giroux uses his past experience to predict markets
31:37 - How Giroux constructs stock portfolios
35:35 - Giroux's view on today's capital allocation
37:26 - Key advice for how to think about valuations
40:47 - What kind of investors are T. Rowe Price
44:50 - How the microstructure of the markets has changed over time and how it has impacted their investment strategy
50:03 - The cyclicality of markets the implications of it
53:34 - Do geographical funds even make sense?
54:40 - How AI impacts the investing world
57:56 - How would Giroux run a longer term portfolio?
58:56 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI338: Politics, Markets & Power Plays: An Unfiltered Look ft. Cem Karsan
Together with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex landscape.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:40 - We are at a populism crossroads
07:09 - Industry performance update
09:02 - The current state and outlook for the global economy
21:03 - The absurdity of lowering yields to maintain a strong dollar
28:47 - The Mar-a-Lago accord - realistic or pure speculation?
35:42 - Are we seeing a new new world order?
42:20 - How the TSMC deal with the US will impact the conflict between Taiwan and China
50:28 - A perfect storm for the Turkish economy
57:20 - The importance of Turkey's position and military power
58:49 - Oil is in a weird spot at the moment
01:03:00 - Could extreme market drops cause policy changes?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM80: Doomsday Clock Ticks: Are We Close to a Monetary Shift? ft. Adam Rozencwajg
Today Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it's right around the corner. We're talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It's all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting these markets, especially regarding energy security. So grab a seat, because we're about to unpack why you should be paying attention to these developing trends and what they could mean for the future of commodities.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:32 - A big picture framework - what has changed since our last conversation?
09:32 - Why are commodities so cheap today?
17:03 - Why is now the moment to go long?
31:04 - We are in a huge carry trade
47:04 - Commodities are taking over another role
51:15 - Where are the greatest opportunities in rare metals?
58:40 - It will end badly for millennials
01:04:09 - Conspiracy theories in the gold industry
01:06:55 - The outlook for the U.S energy market
01:14:02 - Europe is in a difficult energy spot
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI337: How Best to "Replicate" Managed Futures Returns ft. Katy Kaminski
In this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" label. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:50 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:09 - Industry performance update
13:06 - Q1, Rick: Has Katy done any work on Co-Movement Factor and "offsides" systems?
18:12 - Q1.2, Rick: Katy's work shows us the dispersion between "slow" and "fast" systems w/ an optimal window of 10mo: How does this "optimal window" differ by year?
25:54 - Q2, Brian: Are there more individual investors than institutional investors?
28:43 - Q2.2: Are investors holding the ETF “long term”, or do they “chase performance”?
32:25 - Q3, Niels: How should we think about future returns in trend following?
36:24 - The beta of trend following and how to access it
44:05 - Combing index- and mechanical replication
50:58 - The pitfalls of replication strategies
52:32 - What does managed futures/CTAs mean to Katy?
59:14 - Why is mechanical replication often simplified versions of a full trend following system?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL35: The New Age of Economic Warfare: Are We Ready? ft. Edward Fishman
Our guest on this episode is Edward Fishman, a world expert on the modern art of economic warfare. Edward is author of the new book Chokepoints: American Power In The Age of Economic Warfare. He currently teaches at Columbia University and prior to that advised the US Secretary of State, Joints Chiefs of Staff and Treasury Department on the deployment of economic sanctions. We discuss the details of how the US uses its dominant position in the world’s financial markets and technology software to pressure countries like Iran, Russia and China. Most importantly this episode explains why these tools used to influence these chokepoints are permanent and are starting to form the contours of the new global economy that will persist for the coming decades.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Edward on X and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Introduction to Edward Fishman
08:24 - The failures of economic warfare
14:04 - What Stuart Levy can teach us about economic
19:26 - Who even want to work at banks nowadays?
22:10 - The most successful sanction in modern times
27:02 - The dangers of sanctions, export controls and tarifs
32:56 - What is a denial order and why is it such a powerful tool?
37:52 - What is the entity list and what is it used for?
38:55 - Technology chokepoints and the challenges they pose
46:08 - The secret to the American success
48:29 - Is the price cap on Russian oil actually working as intended?
53:31 - The oil market is changing
55:17 - Where is the global economy heading?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI336: How to Invest in Turbulent Times? ft. Graham Robertson
With global market dynamics shifting rapidly and geopolitical noise reaching new heights, how can investors adapt and thrive? In this episode, we explore why an adaptive approach is crucial for navigating today’s turbulent financial landscape. Our conversation delves into the challenges investors face when competing against dominant market players and how trend-following strategies can shine in times of crisis. We also examine the often-overlooked disconnect between price and value - and how this mismatch might actually present fresh opportunities. Join us for an insightful discussion with Graham Robertson from Man AHL, as we unpack these critical insights and explore why trend following remains a powerful tool for generating "crisis alpha." Buckle up for a fascinating conversation!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:11 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:27 - Are kids too worried about the state of the world?
05:58 - Our current observations on trend
10:54 - How to capture the moves in the European energy markets
13:05 - Valuable insights on alternative markets
17:11 - Are alternative markets trending better?
23:02 - The state of liquidity in the industry
25:52 - How Man AHL approaches crypto
29:47 - Industry performance update
31:42 - Q1, Rick: Is a cross-over system typically the primary tool for Trend?
37:14 - The origins of breakout systems
41:36 - The taxi driver problem
46:15 - Using trend as a alternative defensive strategy
50:27 - Are investors expecting more from trend following?
53:35 - Defensive equities and the impact of Deepseek
57:59 - The disconnect between price and value
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI14: Behind the Scenes of a Crypto Hedge Fund ft. Michael Hall & Anatoly Crachlilov
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Anatoly Crachilov and Michaell Hall from Nickel Digital, a prominent London-based crypto hedge fund. Anatoly (CEO) and Michael (CIO) founded the company in 2019 with an initial focus on in-house arbitrage and basis trading strategies. Over the years, their business model has evolved and adapted to the fast-changing world of digital assets. Today, Nickel Digital operates as a multi-strategy, multi-manager setup with more than $250 million in AUM, making it one of the largest and longest-standing crypto hedge funds globally.
Anatoly, Michael and Moritz speak about the opportunities and challenges of operating a multi-PM digital asset hedge fund, how they differ from traditional asset hedge fund pod shops, and how the attract and find new PMs to work with them.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Michael on LinkedIn.
Follow Anatoly on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Introduction to Nickel Digital and how they found their way to crypto
08:10 - A trip down memory crypto lane
12:25 - Why is the basis still so wide on crypto?
15:07 - The state of alpha in the crypto space
18:23 - What kind of portfolio does Nickel Digital run?
19:56 - How they take advantage of automation to carry out a 24/7 365 trading strategy
22:24 - How they manage the managers
25:22 - How they approach netting cost
27:40 - Their process for paying managers
30:59 - Their manager onboarding process
38:41 - Why traders make more money at Nickel Digital than anywhere else
40:52 - What is the average sharpe ratio in the crypto space?
43:19 - The tech backbone - how Nickel Digital is connected to exchanges
46:08 - FTX collapse - The most stressful period for their business
49:46 - How they manage price and risk in 24 hours/day markets
54:06 - How crypto differ from regular markets
57:09 - The pitfalls of trading crypto
01:02:35 - What is their long term vision for Nickel Digital?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI335: Trend Following or Mean Reversion: What Works Best When? ft. Rob Carver
Join us for a fascinating and in-depth conversation with Rob Carver, where we’ll discuss the current state of gold, the impact of rising borrowing costs on futures pricing, and how these elements intertwine with market trends. Along the way, we’ll tackle listener questions that challenge the status quo, digging into everything from fees in the hedge fund world to the implications of recent political shifts. It's a jam-packed session for anyone looking to get a clearer picture of the investment landscape today.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What on earth is going on with gold?
04:58 - The hidden fees of the hedge fund world
11:25 - Industry performance update
15:00 - Q1, David: Since Rob's book was published, several multi-asset leveraged ETFs have become available. Do you think these products have a place in a long-term portfolio? If so, what kind of allocation would you consider reasonable?
21:17 - Q2, Carlos: Imagine a systematically traded trend following account starting with $100k across 10 markets. Over time, the account grows to $200k. Would it generally be “better” to split the capital into two separate and different trading strategies (each trading 10 instruments), or to add more instruments/markets to the existing strategy for greater market diversification?
24:49 - Q3, Chris: Does the use of ETFs to backtest Rob’s trend following strategies provide an accurate representation of performance?
29:41 - Q4, Steve: Any pointers on how to use predictive modelling techniques (linear regression, etc) and how would we combine it with your forecast scaling framework. Also can you comment on potential objective functions to use?
32:54 - Q5, Vik: Once you’ve included established risk premia rules like trend, carry, and fundamental valuations, do most research efforts by experienced teams in big and small firms amount to just fancy branding exercises? In a competitive environment where everyone is working with more or less the same data, is it possible to meaningfully move the needle?
38:19 - Q6, Andrew: Approximately about a year and a half ago or more you published on X that you were making a discretionary trade increasing your bond position. I am Just curious how that trade worked out and if you think, in retrospect, that discretionary call was correct? And are there any learnings for the rest of us about when to know if a discretionary call makes sense?
40:33 - Q7, Paul: What is the benefits/drawbacks of having an absolute strategy, that just looked at if the post returns were positive or negative (rather than relative to the performance of the asset class)?
43:12 - Q8, Samuel: What does the research say (if any) of trend following strategies that don't rely on lagging indicators? To your knowledge has anyone done any studies using the current state of monthly/quarterly/yearly candles for a trend following system?
48:41 - Q9, CryptoCaptain: How to handle missing data when contracts get delisted and then re-listed. Chatgpt suggested that I use Co-integration and Error Correction Models to fill the missing data because the larger contract data is available. What are other things I can try out?
52:01 - Key insights from Quantica on position sizing
55:14 - What should we be paying for risk?
59:10 - Should you still optimize for sharpe?
01:02:10 - Trends and Reversions in Financial Markets
01:09:43 - The economic consequences of Donald Trump
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO28: Why Hedge Funds Still Matter ft. Alexander de Bruin
In this episode, Alexander de Bruin, Head of Fund Research at Edmond de Rothschild, joins Alan Dunne to discuss the art and science of selecting managers and building portfolios of alternatives. Alexander shares insights from his background in convertible bond trading and how it has shaped his approach to allocating capital. The conversation explores the rapid growth of private markets, with a focus on the current opportunities in private credit. They also delve into Alexander's framework for constructing hedge fund portfolios, examining the role of multi-manager, multi-strategy funds compared to other diversifying strategies. Alexander provides a behind-the-scenes look at his manager due diligence process, including his unique approach of sitting on the trading floor with hedge fund managers to gain a deeper understanding of their strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Alexander de Bruin
09:08 - The clients and portfolios that Edmond de Rothschild
13:24 - Should the 60/40 portfolio be revamped?
15:45 - de Bruin's approach to implementing new strategies
19:46 - How de Bruin deal with the paranoia of something going wrong
22:33 - Is there a place for multi-strat approaches?
25:14 - The challenges of managing risk as a multi-strat manager
26:59 - How hedge funds deal with portfolio constraints
29:25 - Opportunities and risks in private markets
35:37 - How high yield portfolios are allocated
37:31 - Which managers do they prefer?
39:49 - How to assess hedge funds as a manager and vice versa
44:51 - How de Bruin uses his backgammon experience when selecting managers
47:54 - Move the managers to where there is more edge
50:05 - Where does the disappointment in hedge fund allocation stem from?
53:36 - Are hedge funds becoming more open to high volatility strategies?
54:49 - What are Edmond de Rothschild looking for in managers?
56:41 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI334: Why Quants Might Be Your Best Bet ft. Nick Baltas
Together with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-political landscape. We touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:26 - A mini crash in the crypto space
11:24 - Breath vs Size of Crypto Investors
14:24 - The US Fixed Income policy is changing
16:07 - Industry performance update
19:21 - Reviewing current trends in 2025
23:46 - How people react to trend following as a defensive strategy
28:51 - What are the most popular risk mitigation strategies?
30:53 - An alternative way of allocating away from bonds and into "safe" equities
38:13 - The trust in the system is fading...rapidly
46:53 - Why price might be more accurate when using trend following
49:42 - The unintended impact of rebalancing
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO27: Unlocking Wealth: Insights from UBS's CIO Mark Haefele
Mark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in a world where macroeconomic factors increasingly influence outcomes.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Mark on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:30 - Introduction to Mark Haefele
05:13 - Behind the scenes of Haefele's job
06:46 - The key takeaways from Haefele's book
09:01 - The difference between managing your wealth and managing your investment
11:16 - How has the investing world changed over the years?
14:50 - Is now a culmination of previous crises?
16:58 - The 5 structural trends of the global economy and how it relates to government spending
19:58 - How they apply the 5 structural trends in a broad sense
22:19 - The most important thing you can do for your portfolio
24:09 - Big problems are big money
25:08 - A historical perspective of the economy
27:43 - Are we moving into an era of greater economic intervention?
30:11 - Was Covid19 the beginning of a new era for inflation?
34:07 - Why private markets are crucial for your portfolio
37:39 - Tips to avoid investing on trends that are peaking
42:41 - Overcoming the behavioural challenges as an investor
47:04 - Half of the battle is mental
49:55 - Advice to become a great investor
52:16 - Understanding your relationship to money
54:31 - Practical ideas for investing with ESG
57:25 - Haefele's perspective on US international relationships
01:00:15 - Key advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI333: Convexity - The Trend Following Game Changer! ft. Richard Brennan
Most investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence.
If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of risk, reward, and the powerful edge convexity can give your portfolio!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:49 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:20 - Industry performance update
11:10 - Why does convexity matter for trend following?
36:13 - What do we actually mean by convexity?
42:04 - Sharpe world - the pitfalls of today's economy
52:30 - Why risk and volatility can feel like the same thing
56:08 - The core of trend following
58:22 - Why open trade equity makes no sense for managers
01:00:03 - The business of trend following
01:01:37 - The exponential potential of trend following
01:08:05 - The times have changed - why is trend following more important than ever?
01:11:22 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM79: How Global Economic Dynamics Shape Our Future ft. Matthew Klein
Today, we explore the intricate dynamics of global trade and economics, highlighting the central thesis of Matt Klein's book, "Trade Wars or Class Wars." Klein argues that the common perception of trade as a zero-sum game is fundamentally flawed; instead, he emphasizes that positive-sum solutions exist, benefiting all parties involved. The conversation explores the impact of internal dynamics within countries, particularly focusing on how these dynamics affect international relations and economic outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the current state of the global economy, rising bond yields, and the potential consequences of immigration policies on labor markets and housing. We invite listeners to rethink traditional economic narratives and consider how collective actions can lead to improved outcomes for everyone.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Matthew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - Introduction to Matthew Klein
05:32 - Expanding the definition of trade
13:45 - The dynamic between growth and productivity
17:04 - The state of the German economy and how it could be improved
22:42 - Klein's perspective on the development of the bond markets
28:49 - Klein's outlook for inflation and interest rates
34:36 - Are we approaching a consumer credit crisis?
38:49 - Is there a productivity boom in sight?
42:25 - Will the deportation become a growth choker?
44:45 - Are we seeing a slow down in housing and rent?
50:10 - What could be done to save the dollar?
59:36 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI332: Market Turbulence: How to Adapt to Regime Changes in Investing ft. Alan Dunne & Mark Rzepczynski
Today, we explore the complexities of current market dynamics, emphasizing the heightened levels of uncertainty stemming from recent regime changes. Mark Rzepczynski shares insights on how this uncertainty can influence investment behavior and market trends, highlighting the importance for investors to adapt their strategies in response to these shifts. The discussion touches on the implications of fluctuating correlations and volatility, particularly for systematic and trend-following strategies. We also explore how the intricate nature of financial markets as complex systems can lead to nonlinear reactions to shocks, making it crucial for traders to consider both measurable risks and the non-measurable uncertainties that can affect their models. The episode wraps up with reflections on the role of institutional arrangements and how they can impact market outcomes in a rapidly changing environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - A flurry of activities
04:05 - The state of VIX and how newspapers and media measure uncertainty
09:11 - How do trend followers take advantage of the uncertainty in markets?
12:50 - What are the components of the regime shift?
16:04 - The implications of the regime shift
17:57 - Industry performance update
19:21 - The state of bond markets from an uncertainty perspective
21:16 - Do indices differentiate between different kinds of uncertainty?
24:45 - How the Trump administration contributes to increased economic uncertainty
28:58 - Are we entering a new, golden age?
33:31 - Do other strategies need adjustment to adapt to the uncertainty?
37:31 - Anything is possible
44:01 - Mastering the balance between convergent and divergent strategies
51:51 - How the banking sector could become less stable the coming years
56:05 - Analyzing economic shocks using a complex systems framework
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM 78: The Market Risk Nobody’s Watching ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
Today, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin to what was seen in the late '90s, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic economic policies. You will gain valuable insights into how to recognize and adapt to these evolving risks, to become well prepared for the challenges ahead.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow David on LinkedIn.
Read David's report here.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:34 - A quick catch up since last conversation
02:13 - Dredge's key takeaways from 2024
08:58 - When did things really start to move for Dredge?
15:41 - Cem's analysis of the recent global macro environment
22:51 - What has driven the S&P volatility?
24:44 - Positioning is all that matters
29:31 - "Correlation is a bitch"
33:31 - Portfolio Manager in legal trouble for following an ESG strategy
37:57 - The difference between credit and vol investors
42:07 - The good outcome is a recession
45:36 - All the things that you are not worried about is driving your performance
48:49 - The state of interest rates and FX trading
57:24 - Is the Fed losing its grip on the economy?
01:03:46 - The outlook of markets - where are we heading?
01:09:18 - Risk is on your balance sheet, not in the future
01:16:14 - Dredge's perspective on structural products issuance
01:27:22 - The recession might come sooner than we think
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI331: Crafting the Perfect Investment Portfolio in 2025 ft. Alan Dunne
Today, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of investment strategies, emphasizing the critical need for diversification in portfolios. With a particular focus on the German economy's challenges, we highlight how geopolitical factors and shifting market dynamics are reshaping investment approaches. We explore the potential implications of rising bond yields and the importance of incorporating trend-following strategies to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes. We also touch on the necessity for investors to rethink their allocations to adapt to an uncertain future, moving beyond outdated correlations and assumptions. As we examine the perspectives of notable figures in finance, the episode serves as a timely reminder of the importance of strategic asset allocation in navigating today's complex market environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:55 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:41 - Why has the German economy changed so much?
10:20 - A world of unexpected political events
13:57 - How can there be a beta if managers are so different?
16:06 - The state of the global macro environment
25:10 - Industry performance update
28:10 - Are investors relying too much on past performance?
35:01 - Are we seeing signs of a catastrophic bubble?
40:14 - 2025 - a deja vu to 1995?
42:24 - Advice for constructing a robust trend following portfolio
54:49 - What do trend following portfolios have in common with race cars?
01:00:34 - Is ESG ruining portfolio performance?
01:03:01 - The fashion has changed
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI13: The Art of Continuous Trading: Mastering Market Dynamics ft. Bill Gebhardt
Bill Gebhardt from 10Dynamics discusses the intriguing intersection of market efficiency and systematic trading strategies. He emphasizes the idea that while traditional views suggest markets are efficient, many hedge funds continue to find success using price-based strategies that should theoretically not work. This paradox leads to a fascinating exploration of the psychological aspects of trading, particularly how human behavior can create opportunities for systematic traders. Gebhardt shares insights on the operational complexities of running a nearly continuous trading process, utilizing intraday data, and employing a diverse range of signals. The conversation explores the risks of underfitting versus overfitting in trading models, ultimately advocating for a strategy that embraces empirical success without excessive optimization.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Bill on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:17 - Introduction to Bill Gebhardt
06:35 - No pain, no gain
08:40 - Why are they called 10Dynamics?
10:08 - What is their philosophy behind how markets work?
12:24 - Are the signals that they run based on trend following?
13:47 - How they handle the operational complexity of their system
18:15 - How they assess the validity of their data
20:39 - Exploring the technical details behind the execution of their system
22:39 - How they approach trading times
25:07 - Combining short and long term trading
26:52 - How they avoid overfitting and underfitting
30:58 - How Gebhardt implements his experience from the energy space
33:54 - How many markets do they trade?
35:50 - Accessing the domestic futures markets
36:56 - Why are single name equities so special to 10Dynamics?
41:08 - How they approach VIX futures
43:39 - Their perspective on replication strategies
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI330: Yield Storm Ahead: Preparing for a New Era ft. Cem Karsan
Together with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and potential counter-trend rallies, this episode provides a thought-provoking look at the complexities facing investors right now.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:19 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:39 - Industry performance update
08:34 - Long term skew in vol markets is causing trouble
13:41 - Approaching OPEX - what is in sight?
21:28 - Does a strong S&P500 performance indicate an incoming crisis?
24:08 - Are we approaching a counter trend rally?
26:33 - It's getting hard to hedge
35:16 - Investors are long without realizing it
38:34 - We need a shadow Fed President
43:23 - We are in a leadership vacuum
47:58 - Early signs of improvement in China?
55:31 - Will Elon Musk change the narrative around China?
59:02 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU147: How to Craft a Rich Life Beyond Money ft. William Green
William Green, author of the book "Richer, Wiser, Happier", returns to the podcast for an eye opening conversation centered around the complexities of investing and the importance of building a rich life beyond mere financial success. We explore the idea that true wealth encompasses autonomy, meaningful relationships, and personal growth, rather than just monetary accumulation. Throughout the discussion, William shares lessons learned from interviewing some of the greatest investors, emphasizing the significance of self-awareness and understanding one’s biases in decision-making. We also touch on the current landscape of investing, including the dominance of U.S. equities and the implications of artificial intelligence in the financial world. By weaving in personal anecdotes and stories, William illustrate how to navigate uncertainty and position oneself for long-term success while maintaining a focus on what truly matters in life.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow William on X and read his book.
Episode Timestamps:
01:42 - Catching up since our last conversation
07:22 - The importance of having connection and belonging along the path
13:51 - The power of friendships
20:21 - A key component to achieve success
22:20 - The pitfalls of becoming successful
26:47 - How psychology influences investment decisions and how to overcome biases
34:23 - Common biases among successful investors
41:10 - How we can broaden our perspective to include happiness in our perception of wealth
51:45 - Advice to become a healthy successful investor
56:58 - How to set yourself up to survive economic downturns
01:05:00 - How successful investors avoid being taken out of the game
01:11:15 - How successful investors use AI in their investment strategies
01:15:31 - How we can use storytelling to demystify complex financial topics
01:25:25 - Green's advice for other investors
01:31:53 - How different will the future actually be from the past?
01:38:57 - How do you identify ideas and lessons that really matters
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI329: CTAs: Innovation Meets Legacy & the BlackRock Effect ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
Together with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of managed futures and CTAs, highlighting the critical need for a narrative shift to better communicate their value to investors. Andrew and Tom discuss the challenges faced by allocators in understanding the unique benefits of trend-following strategies, especially amidst a backdrop of changing market dynamics. They explore the implications of BlackRock's recent move to launch an actively managed manager ETF, which could significantly impact how managed futures are perceived and allocated within investment portfolios. The conversation also touches on the potential for new ESG-compliant products that could attract investors reluctant to engage with traditional commodity exposure. With insights into the current market environment and the importance of adaptability, this episode provides valuable perspectives for anyone interested in systematic investing and the future of CTAs.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:20 - Our expectations going into 2025
07:00 - What to do when bonds are collapsing
10:21 - Industry performance update
11:49 - A deep dive into indices
17:36 - The mechanisms behind creating an index
23:13 - What returns can you expect from a CTA replication index?
27:21 - What are the average fees in today's indices?
30:31 - The benefits of replication
34:04 - The drivers of replication strategies
40:50 - How CTA replicators handle inflection points
43:11 - What happens to an index if its underlying model changes
50:21 - Do trend followers in general make big changes to their models?
52:30 - How the AUM landscape has evolved
57:06 - Can you replicate a pod shop?
01:03:02 - Why many allocators are missing out on trend following
01:11:57 - What is going on with Blackrock?
01:15:29 - Big news from Andrew
01:21:05 - The challenges of complying with ESG metrics
01:23:58 - It's all about the narrative
01:26:48 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL34: Democratizing Data: A New Approach for Trustworthy Information ft. Julia Lane
Our guest on this episode is Dr. Julia Lane, Professor at New York University and author of the book Democratizing Our Data: A Manifesto. Dr. Lane is a member of the National AI Research Resource Task Force and has advised the White House on promoting the use of Federal data for evidence building. She believes that the US system collecting data is outdated, inaccurate and unable to reform itself. This includes the data that goes into measures like GDP and unemployment. The current system is also unable to track the impact of AI on the economy. We discuss her proposals including her work to establish a new non-partisan institute to provide accurate and secure data available to everyone.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Julia on LinkedIn and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - Introduction to Julia Lane
03:42 - We need to rethink how we generate trustworthy data
12:49 - How does data collection look like in the U.S?
18:14 - How do we find out what firms are working in artificial intelligence?
24:53 - How Lane believes we can solve the challenges of collecting trustworthy data
30:38 - How you maintain trust from an operational point of view
32:38 - What we can learn from the New Zealand data collection system
35:57 - How confident can we be in the economic data
38:26 - We need a standardised approach to data collection
40:10 - Lane's future plans for solving the challenges of data collection
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI328: Year-End Roundtable: The Future of Trend Following and Market Dynamics (Part 2)
Join us for Part 2 of our Year-End discussion between all of the hosts on the Systematic Investor Series where we debate the trends and themes shaping the investment landscape heading into 2025. The episode highlights the significance of social media and podcasts in increasing awareness of systematic investment strategies, as well as the challenges posed by evolving market dynamics. Key topics include the role of the U.S. dollar under the new Trump administration, the impact of trend-following strategies, and the ongoing debate about replication in managed futures. We will also share our outrageous predictions for 2025, including insights into the potential resurgence of alternative investments and shifts in global economic relations. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - How social media, podcasts etc. helped us to raise awareness of our products
07:26 - How we decompose risk and uncertainty and how we incorporate it in our thinking
13:20 - The world has gone completely mad
19:30 - The outlook for replication strategies
28:22 - How will the trend following industry look in 5 years?
42:02 - Has the appetite for alternatives destroyed alternatives?
50:16 - Where will the dollar go the coming year?
59:14 - Our outrageous predictions for 2025
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI12: Breaking Rules: Going Beyond Traditional Trend Following ft. Tillmann Sachs & Vishal Sharma
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Tillmann Sachs and Vishal Sharma from J8 Capital Management, a systematic London-based CTA. The main focus of their discussion is J8’s Global Absolute Return Strategy, which trades several different systems across markets and styles, including carry, arbitrage, and trend following. We also speak about their latest addition to this portfolio, namely the Redwood strategy, which is a short-term model trading some of the world’s most liquid futures markets and works with intraday data that’s sampled every 3 minutes. It’s an interesting conversation with a CTA “plus” – a term Tillmann uses as they employ many strategies away from rules-based trend following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Tillmann on LinkedIn.
Learn more about J8 Capital.
Episode TimeStamps:
16:16 - Introduction to Tillmann Sachs, Vishal Sharma and J8 Capital Management
04:06 - Why did they start J8 Capital?
05:09 - What got them interested in a systematic approach?
09:12 - The story behind the J8 Global Absolute Return Strategy
13:53 - Multiple different systems or one big system?
16:25 - Why don't they incorporate equities in their strategy?
21:36 - Managing risk in arbitrage strategies
24:44 - Their perspective on going long term VIX
26:34 - How you valuate risk when putting multiple systems together
29:59 - Is the best benchmark for them a multistrat hedge fund?
33:04 - How does Sharma's short term systematic system work?
37:58 - What is Redwood's correlation to the short term traders index?
38:17 - How Sharma is trading the markets
41:17 - How is Sharma's strategy performing?
44:28 - How Sharma runs and maintains a 24 hours a day process
46:36 - The future direction of J8 Capital
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI327: 2024's Biggest Investment & Trend Following Insights (Part 1)
This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal reflections on our investment strategies and predictions for 2025.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:22 - Introduction to the group conversations
02:33 - A trend following recap of 2024
13:07 - A new president - how does it impact geopolitics?
17:21 - What role crowding has played in 2024
24:00 - Do less liquid markets trend more?
32:32 - Have markets become less efficient over time?
40:28 - Are we actually using AI in our work?
46:00 - What was the biggest mistake we learned in 2024?
49:21 - Why have we experienced such a high dispersion in 2024?
57:05 - Wrapping up
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM77: Unlocking the Roaring 2020s: Is Bitcoin the New Gold? ft. Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.”
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Ed on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni
04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy
07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?
10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?
13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed
16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?
17:57 - Will inflation become sticky?
19:29 - Yardeni's perspective on the neutral rate
22:27 - The roaring 20's scenario
25:46 - What is fuelling the productivity?
30:12 - The data behind productivity
31:58 - Is the U.S industrial advantage part of the productivity story?
33:20 - What can we learn from 80s and 90's productivity boom?
36:42 - How is international policy playing out in the U.S?
40:40 - Yardeni's outlook for the stock market
43:43 - Is a recession unavoidable?
45:40 - What happens to the economy when we enter a recession?
48:27 - Yardeni's perspective on bitcoin
52:19 - Why play with gold when you have crypto?
54:10 - Don't mess with the bond vigilantes
57:42 - Where can you following Yardeni's work?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI326: Volatility and Trends: What 2024 Held for Trend Followers ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable perspectives for investors seeking to understand the evolving landscape of systematic investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:13 - Industry performance update
03:48 - Our takeaways from 2024
09:20 - How different speed has performed in different markets
13:25 - Has market correlation been lower than usual this year?
14:15 - Concluding on 2024
15:55 - Interesting news in the ETF space
18:29 - Key takeaways from the Hedge Nordic Roundtable 2024
20:18 - Optimism for the managed futures space?
23:10 - A historical perspective on volatility sizing
30:50 - How different styles of trend following work and perform
35:51 - When is long vol a good strategy to use?
37:41 - The challenges of trend following as a strategy
41:36 - Our perspective on running portable alpha
49:15 - Where does portable alpha sit in a portfolio?
51:59 - Tweaking your trend following portfolio to accommodate equities
54:06 - Thoughts on going into 2025
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan
Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Paul on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan
06:02 - The state of the European economy
09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing
13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?
18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?
22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?
29:04 - An economic plague in the UK
34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people
38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?
44:32 - The potential for supply side economics
49:48 - Why tariffs are inflationary
52:21 - How bad can the tariffs war get?
56:18 - How tariffs could impact interest rates
59:00 - How will the rest of the decade look in terms of growth and inflation?
01:01:30 - Advice for other economists
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI325: Why Adaptive Strategies Matter Now More Than Ever ft. Graham Robertson
Today, together with Graham Robertson of MAN AHL, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following and its relationship with current market conditions, particularly influenced by central bank actions. We examine how trend followers have navigated recent volatility and the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rate expectations. We highlight the significance of understanding correlation trends among different asset classes and the importance of diversifying strategies in enhancing portfolio resilience. The discussion also touches on the complexities of trend following strategies and the necessity for clearer communication to investors about their benefits. As we explore the evolving landscape of systematic investing, the episode underscores the need for adaptive strategies in an unpredictable economic environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:04 - Are single stocks signaling trouble?
05:00 - Major divergence in market performance globally
08:06 - Industry performance update
09:06 - Our key observations from 2024
11:24 - Advice for getting your market capacity right
15:33 - Our thoughts on trading speed
17:14 - Don't get too caught up on specific narratives
18:38 - Industry performance numbers
20:02 - How Idiosyncratic risk works
26:55 - Setting up the optimal defense
28:31 - Don't be scared of "days like that"
32:21 - Troublemakers in the class room
38:58 - TINA is back in global markets - but with a makeover
40:45 - Our thoughts on the upcoming U.S administration
43:37 - How do we get trend following into our portfolios?
48:33 - The challenges of propagating trend following
51:53 - How to approach market capacity the right way
55:34 - Different times call for different markets
58:47 - Accents are causing trouble for AI
01:00:03 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL33: The Soul of Wealth: Behavioral Secrets to a Purposeful Life ft. Daniel Crosby
Our guest on this episode is Dr. Daniel Crosby, New York Times bestselling author and Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. Daniel joins us to discuss his new book - The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning. We discuss simple actions everyone can take to apply the lessons of behavioral finance to their own investing - actions that have a shockingly large impact on wealth accumulation. Daniel talks about why even the most experienced professional investors might benefit from having a financial advisor and how new research on willpower can help us be more effective investors. We end with an overview of Daniel’s new research on the three principles that seem to drive the most purposeful lives.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Daniel on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Daniel Crosby
07:55 - What caused Crosby to write his book?
11:28 - How would Crosby like people to read his book?
13:40 - Does there exist a perfect moment to invest?
17:19 - Crosby's perspective on valuations
21:08 - Does it makes sense to use financial advisors?
25:33 - Taking the worst case off the table
30:00 - How to achieve psychological, financial safety with a low budget
32:25 - The relationship between fees and performance
34:47 - Giving your accounts a purpose
38:04 - The name of your accounts matters
41:23 - We have been wrong about will power
45:01 - Off-loading your mental bandwidth
46:42 - The cheat meal of your financial life
48:03 - Are we thinking too much about happiness?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI324: Embracing Uncertainty using Adaptive Models ft. Richard Brennan
Today, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode you will gain valuable insights into how both personal and economic landscapes can evolve and respond to changing conditions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:37 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:20 - Is now the best time to allocate to alternatives?
12:14 - Industry performance update
17:58 - How we manage uncertainty in "chaotic systems"
25:55 - How to translate ensemble models to trend following
28:25 - The benefits of adding more trend following models
34:10 - It takes guts to be a greedy pig
37:04 - The hidden risks of financial markets
48:47 - Why Value at Risk (VaR) models makes more sense than having stops
56:35 - The inevitable outcome of cycles
01:06:40 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM75: Macro Mastery: The Hedgeye Approach ft. Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Keith on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Keith McCullough
05:01 - From hedge fund to research
07:29 - Being a retail investor is an insult
09:56 - How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options
13:48 - Have stocks become more macro driven?
15:54 - Where are we currently in the 4 quads?
19:22 - The challenge of lag in macro signals
21:26 - McCullough's framework for monitoring signals
24:25 - When can herding be a distraction?
26:54 - The current market from a quad perspective
31:09 - Reassessing the narrative of the deficits
35:50 - The outlook of the dollar
38:16 - The (un?)importance of valuations
41:07 - How the state of China influences McCulloughs model and framework
43:15 - Getting on the right side of the K
45:12 - The market from the 3 pots perspective
48:33 - Developing a respect for the markets
52:07 - McCullough's advice for preserving your wealth
56:01 - McCullough's philosophy to investing
58:33 - McCullough's perspective on systematic trend following
59:50 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan
Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment.
Add to Show Notes
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:50 - Industry performance update
07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?
09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 2025
17:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression
26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 2025
39:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began?
48:22 - How inflation and interest rates have impacted the rise of populism
55:31 - How the gold market has evolved over the recent years
59:12 - Cem's outlook for Bitcoin and crypto currencies
01:03:59 - Is Donald Trump a threat to populism?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut
In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut
03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models
08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?
09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system
11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders
15:35 - An example of how they handle flow
18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?
21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the markets
23:53 - Category 2: Relative value and spread trading
29:37 - Collecting the roll down yield
31:12 - Is Callut also engaging in a short VIX positioning?
36:59 - Proactive and reactive management
38:33 - What could happen after Volmageddon?
40:42 - How they implement reactive management
41:37 - Category 3: Macro trades
46:37 - What role does automation play at DCM Systematic?
48:36 - How they implement AI and machine learning
53:38 - A work in progress
54:46 - Working with a moving target
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski
In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:43 - Industry performance update
10:17 - New times for bonds
14:37 - The issue is always in the details
19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?
22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing
26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto
29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?
30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?
34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage
38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?
43:27 - A kind and a wicked environment
45:56 - Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics
48:50 - Get your position size right or go bankrupt
50:31 - Trailing PE - the secret sauce of successful analysts?
55:18 - How narrative impacts the stock market
58:37 - Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens
01:01:26 - Trend following - an unpredictable alpha?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder
Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Carola on LinkedIn and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Introduction to Carola Binder
03:20 - How did she approach her research?
07:55 - What does inflation historically mean?
11:19 - How the view on paper money has changed over time
16:25 - How the role of the Fed has evolved historically
22:35 - How gold has impacted the
24:17 - Controlling paper money - advancing democracy or centralizing power?
29:16 - Is 2% inflation the wrong target?
35:27 - Incorporating asset prices into central bank decision making
40:29 - How does Binder measure inflation expectations?
47:10 - Has inflation expectations risen since the Covid19 period?
49:57 - Does the high governmental debt imply a high inflation period ahead?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne
Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?
06:26 - An analysis of the election
11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome
14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome
18:11 - A global macro perspective
28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?
31:39 - Industry performance update
37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?
37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?
41:56 - Is Goldman Sachs changing their strategy?
48:38 - The role of trend following in an unpredictable market
53:45 - How systematic investing has become integral in portfolio construction
57:54 - Systematic - an overlooked word
59:21 - The mystery paper - a teaser
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran
Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Stephen on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran
05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?
10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work
15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer
17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon
21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?
24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations
27:26 - The state of the labour market
32:48 - How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?
34:21 - What is plausible range for the neutral rate?
37:07 - Is there a better way to run policy?
40:42 - The economic impact of the election outcome
45:54 - The challenges of regulatory policy
48:57 - Who will be the Treasury Secretary?
50:14 - Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?
53:49 - The outlook for fixed income
56:07 - Geopolitical concerns
57:37 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer
In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:30 - Industry performance update
04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months
11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event
16:49 - Picking the right managers
19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality
26:53 - Different products for different market segments
33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?
43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds
46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?
53:49 - Tell me what you love
57:24 - Bonds are like the Voldemort of asset allocation
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman
Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman
04:28 - The state of the economy
04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
09:40 - The outlook for inflation
12:34 - A move in the right direction?
14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful concept?
17:35 - The risk of being too sensitive to current data
21:05 - Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?
22:28 - Is the economy too complicated to forecast?
23:44 - Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?
26:46 - Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits
28:29 - Has the Treasury managed the situation right?
31:34 - Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?
34:46 - Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?
36:32 - A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?
37:57 - Is the Fed in danger?
39:24 - Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?
40:54 - Productivity - reasons to be optimistic?
43:57 - Is AI a threat to employment?
45:25 - Furman's perspective on the industrial policy
49:33 - Are we going too far in the wrong direction?
51:06 - China's influence on the global economy
54:05 - The outlook of economical growth
55:38 - Is Europe in trouble?
57:12 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver
Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?
09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked
10:37 - An economic Kayfabe
13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?
18:44 - Industry performance update
20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?
25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?
26:13 - Q1.2 CryptoCaptainX3: Can you trade directional strategies but instead of using futures, use options. What are the pros and cons of this?
30:55 - Q2, Taylor: How do you think about position rebalancing, and the tradeoff between maintaining your desired risk allocation versus minimizing transaction cost?
34:22 - Q3, Richard: "Position Inertia", a method of avoiding frequent small trades by widening the target to 10% above and below the desired position. Have you considered varying this parameter depending on the estimated trading costs of the instrument?
36:01 - Q3.1 Richard: I currently use a rolling 10 year window of weekly returns to forecast correlations between futures instruments as you suggest in a blog post in 2020. Do you think there would be any value in applying an exponential smoothing to the correlation forecasts?
41:13 - Q4 Michael: How do you monitor that your systems are runnings normally intra-day, without checking the performance?
43:48 - Q5 Richard: How to dynamically allocate capital between different strategies in a live systematic system, given dozens of strategies, all with changing performance over time.
45:33 - Q6: Cloud: Are there any ways or optimizations to pick the right strategies and right instruments (profitable)?
47:38 - Is "less is more" applicable when it comes to market selection?
59:26 - The promises and pitfalls of replication strategies
01:13:30 - A mixed up narrative - do they truly replicate performance?
01:20:00 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino
In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:30 - Introduction
03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis
06:34 - Can trading be taught?
08:50 - The story behind the trading rules
12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?
13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?
22:01 - Why they focus on short term trading
27:25 - How they use volatility in their trading
32:49 - Do they utilize other methods than trend following?
34:05 - Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?
40:26 - How they control overfitting and underfitting
45:37 - How they use "the gauntlet" to test systems
49:12 - How many markets do they trade and why?
53:57 - Why they don't trade single stocks
56:28 - Their view on replication strategies
01:05:23 - Evaluating the success of systems
01:08:02 - What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?
01:08:47 - The future of trend following
01:11:11 - Criticise ideas, not people
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski
Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?
06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes
07:47 - Industry performance update
09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?
13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions
18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?
24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?
29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the correlation between stocks and bonds?
33:27 - Katy's thoughts on the large dispersion between managers this year
36:44 - Can you use carry trading with the SG Trend Index?
39:48 - Timing trends is a fool's game
42:31 - Bill Eckhardt is coming on the podcast next week!
43:35 - The outlook for trend following
46:42 - How do trend following strategies perform in different interest rate environments
52:15 - Do investors agree with the findings of the Quantica paper?
55:31 - Are investors disappointed about the trend following performance?
01:00:40 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Louis on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?
28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?
36:48 - A fiscal crisis in the U.S?
40:32 - The economic challenges that France faces
43:09 - The state of the European economy
47:20 - Welfare states are falling apart
49:48 - The U.S. election - how will it impact investors?
54:00 - How Trump would handle the current global conflicts
56:59 - Trump interfering with the Fed
59:26 - A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?
01:00:05 - Still bullish on emerging markets?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan
This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida
03:39 - A rough time for trend following
08:39 - Industry performance update
12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs
23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following
32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy
40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following
01:06:22 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL31: What Your Cashless Future Will Look Like ft. Richard Holden
Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden
06:06 - A whole year without cash
08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?
12:40 - The implications of a cashless society
23:53 - A big hurdle
26:04 - Building a better mouse trap
28:08 - Dealing with the U.S. banking regulation
31:13 - The Fed Coin - How could it work?
38:11 - The dark side of the Fed Coin
41:36 - How the borrowing process works in banks
44:55 - How would the Fed control credits?
51:56 - Is Holden working with the Australian government?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick Baltas
Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:37 - Industry performance update
09:02 - Reflecting on August and September
12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade
17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?
21:32 - Finding the right trading speed
24:15 - Out-performing is a long game
27:47 - Its time to move direction
29:53 - Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?
33:45 - Evaluating models over a long time
39:24 - Baltas' thoughts on correlation forecasting
42:26 - Pairing risk parity and trend following
48:25 - A dangerous game
51:35 - How much should you allocate to trend following?
01:01:06 - Is the benchmark changing?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO26: Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy Flikerski
Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Amy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski
08:02 - How they think about manager selection
09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?
11:40 - How they assess their investment objective
13:07 - How they manage risk
14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them
15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio
17:11 - How the hedge fund industry have evolved
19:13 - Is there a place for multi-manager pods?
20:47 - A war for talent
22:34 - How they approach internal vs external management
26:34 - How is their team set up?
28:48 - What are they looking for when assessing managers?
30:54 - Making allocation to emerging managers
33:10 - What characterize their managers?
34:48 - Assessing the scalability of a strategy
37:29 - What makes a good allocator
39:23 - Advice for independant hedge funds
41:40 - What types of early stage managers do they look out for?
42:55 - How they approach their portfolio construction
45:25 - How they manage fund constraints
46:48 - What is their typical ticket size?
47:31 - Reaching the right level of transparency
49:46 - Characteristics of a succesful discretionary manager
51:14 - Managing drawdowns
52:56 - Their decision-making process
55:58 - How they approach commodities
57:33 - Advice for other managers
01:00:18 - Advice for people coming into the industry
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan
In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:17 - Industry performance update
05:36 - Seasonality in markets
17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?
21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets
25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?
35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?
39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?
46:19 - A global conflict perspective
50:40 - How the election might impact commodities
52:06 - Migration policy and its effect on inflation
53:57 - How markets might trade right after the election is over
57:13 - Dangerous periods ahead?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM71: The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin Coldiron
In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Kevin on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published
06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis
09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?
17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?
23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?
30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated
32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes
34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?
37:58 - A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?
45:09 - How could you make money from a carry unwind?
49:13 - Will we ever get away from the Fed Put?
53:47 - A new way of treating the S&P 500
56:33 - How the carry regime impacts the economy
59:15 - The impact of geopolitics on carry
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI314: Algo Anxiety... Can AI Resolve This? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:18 - Industry performance update
09:58 - Who is responsible for the rise of carry?
16:30 - The markets are the real voting machine
18:34 - Reviewing Powell's speech
23:39 - The KuU framework
29:13 - The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts
38:15 - The flaws of systematic managers
47:05 - Working with the 3 C's
57:13 - "What was it like to be in a bear market?"
01:01:42 - The pros and cons of buying an index
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg
This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Catching up
05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke?
12:58 - The state of the metal sector
22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading
28:41 - Getting the timing right
42:51 - It's all about volatility
44:38 - Playing the long game
47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong?
52:40 - A carry trade bubble
54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper?
01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down?
01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast
01:08:40 - An over-demand of assets in China?
01:12:54 - Thoughts on the recent decline in oil
01:15:44 - What is the current level of the U.S strategic reserve?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne
In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:42 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe
08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation
14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds
19:58 - The big macro picture
27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose?
29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!)
34:11 - The carry unwind
41:20 - Are people underestimating trend following?
44:51 - Are markets becoming less efficient?
48:30 - Why higher volatility funds may be good for your portfolio
56:52 - A historical perspective on volatility
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson
03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?
05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk
09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?
11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm
15:15 - The new area of tightness
18:27 - It is all about labour cost
23:46 - The deflationary power of technology
26:46 - The outlook of the labour market
32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of tightness
39:38 - What happens in a world with an upward bias to inflation?
43:26 - The difference between existential and tactical crises
46:56 - Carlsson's framework for assessing the risk of debt
52:04 - Carlsson's outlook for the economy going forward
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:18 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:59 - How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays?
10:45 - Industry performance update
14:30 - Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders?
21:00 - Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility
24:24 - Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital
31:22 - Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve be a good idea?
39:05 - A deep dive into ETFs
48:52 - An example of a worst case scenario ETF
53:13 - Can't we just buy a CTA index?
59:29 - The best way to think about indices
01:07:41 - Turning a backtest into an index
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell
Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Michael on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell
03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets
06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities
09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects?
12:17 - The last 15 years from a liquidity perspective
18:19 - Is liquidity the driver of the bond yield moves?
23:08 - Why has the quantitative tightening not been more disruptive?
32:44 - Is a debt crisis in sight?
39:48 - Howell's advice for allocating assets
42:45 - What has caused the reversal of the Yen?
48:02 - How to distinguish between capital flows and hedging activity
49:44 - Why are the G10 currencies so stable?
51:18 - A risk point on the radar
52:23 - The implications of the shift towards private credit financing
55:02 - A favorable environment for risk assets?
59:15 - Is Howell skeptical about the Chinese currency?
01:00:11 - The outlook of the liquidity cycle
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer
As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:49 - What has been on our radar recently?
04:17 - Industry performance update
08:07 - Just another August?
12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?
14:54 - Has replication become obsolete?
25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation
31:56 - Staying in sync
35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies
43:42 - A world premiere!
51:05 - An index madness
53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things
56:02 - How the new index works
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Peter on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?
07:29 - Signs of weakness?
09:31 - The key indicators of weakness
12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?
15:26 - Assessing the savings rate
17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy
20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?
22:00 - Challenges in the banking system
24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal support?
27:11 - Why Berezin thinks the stock market is 50% overvalued
29:26 - Are AI companies in trouble?
35:51 - The long term economic impacts of AI
37:46 - Boosts in inventories: A tipping point to the economy?
40:17 - Berezin's outlook for Fed policy
42:47 - Rate cuts = recession?
45:42 - The state and outlook of the U.S housing market
47:25 - An unsustainable budget outlook
50:44 - Will we see a strengthening of the dollar?
52:19 - An upside for the yen
53:53 - A collective cutting of rates
55:06 - Has globalization run its course?
56:40 - The structural outlook for commodities
58:51 - What should you focus on?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan
Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?
04:43 - What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?
11:48 - Industry performance update
18:24 - The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting
33:42 - Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data
36:31 - How collective trader behaviour influences price movement
48:03 - How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement
52:47 - Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolio
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL29: Technology: The Economic Dynamite ft. Mark Mills
In this episode we welcome back Mark Mills, author of The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark was a guest on the show one year ago and many of the predictions he made then have come true. We revisit his view that simultaneous improvements in information, materials and machine technologies are about to unleash an economic boom. He explains the surge in power consumption related to AI and why this should not serve as a brake on its adoption if we employ sensible energy policies. He also discusses why mining will continue to expand and how manufacturing across all industries is evolving to be more like a service.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Mark on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Introduction to Mark Mills
09:05 - What causes revolutions?
12:27 - How Artificial Intelligence will impact the energy sector
22:02 - Should we be worried about the energy consumption of AI?
29:10 - Are renewables and recycling a viable solution?
37:37 - Putting Mills in the shoes of a mining director
44:13 - The future of battery technology
48:48 - Manufacturing as a service - the new ecommerce?
52:39 - How choke points in manufacturing will challenge the economy
56:16 - Is the economy stronger than we think?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI309: Bonds Behaving Badly ft. Katy Kaminski
Along with Katy Kaminski, we discuss how the current disruptions in the economy and markets cause a change in investors’ behaviour. We dive deep into the interconnection between inflation, bonds and volatility and we discuss how to build a portfolio that performs well in economic downturns. We also discuss the difference between a crisis versus a correction and the evolution when it comes to "model speed" within the CTA industry, the importance of sticking to the process in times of uncertainty and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:15 - Have investors internalized the new Divergent economies and policies?
05:37 - Are investors mistaking convergence for divergence and vice versa?
08:57 - Industry performance update
17:19 - Connecting the dots
23:35 - Bonds - Why are they Behaving Badly?
27:59 - Conditional return distribution - what and why?
30:04 - Alternative markets and the 60/40 struggle
35:29 - The role of crisis alpha and a discussion on speed
42:42 - Thoughts on carry in the CTA industry
47:29 - Did the VIX really hit 65?
55:34 - Sticking to the process
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO25: Master Your Hedge Fund Allocation ft. John Jackson
Join John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, and Alan Dunne in this enlightening episode as they dive into the world of hedge fund selection! Discover how a leading institutional consultant selects hedge funds and builds robust portfolios. John shares his insights on why starting with manager selection is key to the portfolio construction process and how he integrates top-down considerations into the mix. The conversation delves into the roles different strategies play in a portfolio, how return expectations are set, and which strategies might thrive in a high-rate, volatile macro environment. John also takes us through Mercer’s rigorous process for researching and selecting new managers, what they look for in a manager, and potential red flags to watch out for. Plus, he sheds light on the importance of emerging managers, the AUM needed for a successful launch, and why he’s passionate about discovering these managers early on.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow John on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - Introduction to John Jackson
05:40 - A changed environment for hedge funds?
08:42 - Best strategies for a high rates environment
11:50 - Are clients stuck in the past?
13:40 - A framework for building hedge fund allocations
18:13 - More art than science
19:15 - Define your objectives clearly
20:51 - A multi-strat dominance - pros and cons
25:14 - Getting comfort in your hedge fund strategies
28:32 - How to incorporate diversifying strategies in your portfolio
30:48 - How Jackson approaches return expectations
33:13 - Typical number of managers
34:00 - The role of hedge funds
35:44 - Their process of selecting managers
38:56 - What makes an opportunity compelling to them?
43:28 - How they trade in the systematic space
45:10 - Quant managers - are they any different?
47:08 - AI and machine learning in the quant space
49:25 - How important is transparency?
50:54 - Their process of deselecting and changing their manager roster
54:07 - Identifying talents in the manager space
56:18 - How much capital is needed to launch a macro fund?
57:52 - The pros and cons of committees
01:00:21 - Getting through the committee
01:02:12 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI308: Major Market Moves - What Now, Trend Followers? ft. Nick Baltas
Following an eventful week with major market rotations, I'm joined by Nick Baltas to discuss the impact of this weeks turbulence on trend followers. We discuss how trend following strategies had already started to adapt to the market rotations in July and what the consequence of leaving the short fixed income trade behind meant for overall performance in August. We also discuss how the market rotations has changed investors’ perception of trend following speed and why there is no “one size fits all” when investing. Lastly, we discuss how risk management has evolved, how it impacts the trend following industry and if we can draw any parallels to previous market "events".
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:45 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:49 - Industry performance update
05:37 - An eventful week
11:22 - Putting the market rotations into context
18:58 - How have trend following strategies started to change recently?
26:40 - How trend following performs according to data
29:03 - How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing?
34:07 - Has the perception of speed shifted after this week?
45:07 - How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks?
50:17 - Zero day options - part of the problem?
54:58 - The evolution of risk management
01:02:10 - A recap of this week's headlines
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM67: Successful Investing in a Disrupted World ft. Aswath Damodaran
Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and a leading expert on valuation and corporate finance joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on current markets and investing in general. They explore why Aswath believes we have witnessed the death of old-school value investing and how structural shifts in the economy have fundamentally altered the investing landscape. The discussion delves into the valuation of Nvidia and the Mag 7, questioning whether the hype around AI is justified. Aswath outlines his approach for long-term valuation, explains how he estimates the equity risk premium, and discusses what the current equity risk premium suggests for long-term equity market returns. They also cover the importance of bond yields for valuation, the shortcomings of P/E as a valuation measure, and whether assets without cash flows, like gold and crypto, can be valued. The episode wraps up with Aswath’s advice for becoming a better investor and preparing for an AI-driven future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Aswath on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Aswath Damodaran
03:30 - Nvidia - bullish or bearish?
04:47 - How AI will impact the economy
10:48 - How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks
14:36 - How to distinguish AI stocks from each other
17:58 - A sticky market
22:40 - How should you act to the AI boom as an investor?
31:07 - Are value investor becoming obsolete?
35:49 - What is the equity risk premium?
40:28 - How much equity risk premium is enough?
45:08 - Dealing with macro shocks and timing the markets
50:01 - Inflation and its impact on stocks
51:51 - Don't rely on the P/E ratio alone
53:08 - The link between GDP and earnings
54:31 - The importance of investing globally
57:35 - Can assets with no cash flows be valued?
58:27 - Managing the risk
01:01:56 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI307: The Unpinning of Volatility & How to Prepare for What is Coming ft. Cem Karsan
Together with Cem Karsan, we discuss how the volatility space is experiencing major dispersion at the moment and how you can prepare your portfolio for the unpinning of volatility which we are experiencing. We also address how the groundbreaking events that have happened in the U.S. election recently might change the outcome of the election and what impact this will have on the economy. We discuss the core principles and mechanisms behind market moves and how Fed plays a pivotal role in this. And lastly, Cem explains how flows in financial systems and markets work and what you can do as an investor to stay well prepared.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:44 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:38 - A surprise question for Cem
06:26 - Industry performance update
08:59 - How are volatility strategies doing in general in 2024?
14:59 - Suggestions for which volatility indices to use
16:35 - Q1, Zach: How would someone use a systematic trading system to purchase and sell put options?
20:12 - Q2, Rick: With all the talk about USD and rates, does anyone have a view on how a possible unwind of the USD/Yen carry trade could impact markets? DO we know the size of this?
24:19 - Trump 2.0 - better, faster, stronger?
34:30 - An unfathomable situation
38:38 - The mechanisms behind market moves
47:14 - More conflict incoming?
50:37 - What causes stress in the financial systems?
01:01:50 - The wobble is happening
01:05:51 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL28: The Transformation of the 21st Century Economy ft. Ernest Scheyder
In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Ernest Scheyder
03:11 - Why are lithium and copper so important?
05:44 - The outlook of the U.S lithium production
09:12 - Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production
17:26 - What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?
23:17 - Supply and demand in lithium
25:02 - The challenges of recycling batteries
31:07 - Is a fully circular economy even possible?
34:14 - The negative consequences of copper mining
39:19 - A part of the people
41:53 - The complexities of tribal relations in the U.S.
43:46 - Is outsourcing copper mining morally irresponsible?
47:25 - The challenges of attracting labour in the mining industry
52:00 - How did Scheyder approach the writing of his book?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI306: If Trend Following was an Olympic Sport... ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?
03:17 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:20 - Bills = money?
09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?
13:38 - Industry performance update
16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??
26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest"
31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity
35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer?
40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio
48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk
53:33 - Machine learning and AI in systematic trading
01:00:22 - The hot hand fallacy
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan
Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alfonso on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy
10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade
18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?
27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation
34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right
46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election
51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?
55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?
01:02:31 - A "Golden" idea
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI305: Building A Hedge Fund Allocation ft. Alan Dunne
Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:02 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - How we utilize AI in our own work
09:14 - Price on fossil hit an all time high
09:54 - The FOMO narrative in investing
11:52 - Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election
19:50 - An unsustainable path
24:37 - Industry performance update
27:58 - Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund?
34:25 - Fees - the big differentiator
38:46 - Key takeaway from the paper "Skew Spectrum"
48:20 - Paper on building a hedge fund allocation
01:00:34 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen
In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen
05:45 - Was it all about luck?
07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?
12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?
13:56 - The political pressure on central banks
16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting
23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?
29:50 - What are the most important factors for policy makers?
35:16 - The lags of monetary policy
39:47 - How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism
48:15 - Posen's view on the economy
51:07 - Are central banks inflating the debt away?
53:49 - A Fiscal crisis incoming?
01:00:10 - Artificial Intelligence - a game changer?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI304: Taking the Trend Following Temperature with Man AHL ft. Graham Robertson
Today, we are joined by our special guest, Graham Robertson who is Partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL, for a wide-ranging conversation about trend following. We discuss how trend following has stood out in recent years and why April 2024 was especially noteworthy, and how Graham views the current interest from investors around the world. We also address to what extent trend following should play a role in your portfolio and what type of environment tends to influence overall performance for the industry based on Principal Component Analysis. Lastly, we discuss how AI might impact the trend following industry, and whether Trend Followers have started saying goodbye to the short fixed income traded, that lasted for more than 2 years.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:56 - Introduction to Graham Robertson
03:40 - How Graham came across trend following
04:56 - Graham's observations in 2024 so far
08:03 - Is China becoming an easier market to trade?
09:01 - How to deal with uncomfortable markets
11:17 - Why April was an interesting month for trend followers
14:54 - A discussion on trend following performance
20:45 - Industry performance update
22:03 - How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA strategies
26:37 - Rating the climate for interest in trend following
31:46 - Which regions or countries are most interested in trend following?
34:16 - Why ESG means different things to different strategies
38:05 - How much should investors allocate to trend following?
41:05 - How to change people's minds about trend following
43:59 - Changing the narrative in the trend following industry
47:28 - Man AHL's general approach to research
55:15 - Graham's perspective on AI in the trend following industry
01:00:20 - A new approach to 60/40
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI09: The Key to Trend Following Success ft. Cole Wilcox
In this episode, Moritz Seibert and Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management speak about systematic trend following strategies applied to single stocks, including the many advantages compared to long only buy and hold, but also some of the challenges and technical details related to portfolio construction. Cole is the founder and CEO of Longboard Asset Management, an Arizona-based alternatives fund management firm. He explains why participating in some of the big outlier price moves in mid and small cap stocks is as important as cutting out the many stock which don’t perform, in other words, avoiding the failures while having a systematic process that allows for taking part in the upside are both important.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Cole on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management
08:27 - Diving deep into the strategy
10:45 - What drives the alpha of their strategy?
15:41 - Understanding your investor base
18:07 - Understanding their correlation
19:31 - Thoughts on including international stocks
24:15 - Do they fully fund their portfolio?
27:52 - How they approach dividends
29:14 - Do they loan out stocks?
30:34 - Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?
32:36 - How many names do they have in their portfolio on the long side
33:12 - Dilution vs. concentration
37:15 - The impact of volatility drag
39:43 - Improving the experience of investing
42:01 - A compliment or full portfolio strategy?
45:57 - What are the most important lessons they have learned?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne
Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:59 - Industry performance update
06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply
09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade
11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?
13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?
19:57 - When does it all end?
24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?
27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?
33:09 - What will drive the increasing volatility?
35:10 - The election from a volatility perspective
42:46 - Volatility from a market pricing perspective
45:36 - How will a win for Trump impact the economy?
47:56 - Looking outside of the U.S.
53:06 - Similar volatility supply dynamics in Europe?
54:52 - Good times ahead for gold?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm
Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Claudia on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm
04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule
08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?
12:37 - Putting the data together
18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?
29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate
40:42 - The state of physical policy
45:32 - The growth picture from a long term perspective
50:32 - The positive sides of inflation
53:17 - Book recommendations and advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI302: The Negative Crisis Beta and CTA's Hidden Market Timing Skills ft. Nick Baltas
This week, Alan Dunne chats with Nick Baltas about CTAs' negative crisis beta and their hidden market timing skills. Nick and Alan tackle the question of how to build an effective trend-following program as part of a larger multi-asset portfolio, in relation to the markets traded and speed of system and tie in insights from a recent Quantica paper. They weigh the benefits of unconstrained trend-following programs versus those with capped equity beta. Plus, they discuss the ideal level of volatility for running an investment program and take a closer look at a Resolve Asset Management paper on the best ways to construct carry strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:23 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:00 - Industry performance update
05:32 - Reversions incoming?
07:06 - Q1: Regarding how to choose instruments in your trend following algorithm
14:20 - Getting the speed right
17:37 - Q2: At what point does volatility put an investor in a danger zone?
24:32 - Discussing the paper "Negative Crisis Beta" from Quantica
38:16 - Capping the beta
45:17 - The hidden market timing of CTAs
50:23 - The benefits of adding carry to your portfolio
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM63: War Without Rules ft. General Robert Spalding
Join us as Cem Karsan and I explore China's plan for global dominance with retired General Robert Spalding, author of "War Without Rules." General Spalding discusses the rising tensions between China and the West, pointing out warning signs from the past two decades and mistakes made by the West. We delve into China's long-term strategy for world domination and its impact on investment strategies. We also question if TikTok is being used by China as a weapon against the West. Additionally, we examine the decline of democracy, the rise of autocracy, and the challenges democracies face in competing with autocracies. Finally, General Spalding highlights the importance of protecting digital infrastructure from cyber threats and decentralizing it for resilient communication, a mission he passionately pursues with his company, SEMPRE.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Robert on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:49 - Introduction to General Robert Spalding
03:38 - What did Spalding learn from flying B-2 airplanes?
08:44 - Who is Spalding's criticism aimed towards?
10:33 - A visionary perspective
15:37 - TikTok - The ultimate weapon?
21:37 - Is the West as "bad" as China?
30:49 - How do the West compete on a level playing field against autocracy?
42:28 - Spalding's view on the conflict between China and Taiwan
54:29 - How hot can a cold war get?
58:31 - Is there no way back?
01:00:51 - The vulnerability of infrastructure and data
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI301: The AI Hype within Investing...a Step Too Far? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver shares his insights on buying put options as a tail risk strategy and how trend following can also play a part in tail risk protection...but perhaps not they way some investors may think. Rob also shares his advice for using carry in your strategies when trading rolling futures contracts. We then pivot to hear Rob's thoughts on why the U.S. election appears to be the perfect storm, and we discuss what the outcome of the election will mean for the economy. Rob also explain why he is sceptical about the AI hype and the liability issues that AI poses. Lastly, we discuss the challenges of setting the right level of fees as a manager and how investors may complain about the higher level of fees the multi-billion $ managers charge...yet still chose to invest with them.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:26 - A quick talk on football (soccer)
02:09 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:26 - An update on Rob's portfolio.?
09:37 - Industry performance update
12:07 - Q1, Steve: What are Rob's advice for systematic buying of put options as a tail risk strategy?
26:51 - Q2, Luis: Regarding how to use carry in your strategies when you roll from a contract to the next one
33:39 - A discussion on elections
38:36 - The U.S election - a perfect storm?
44:41 - Should you be cautious about the AI hype?
57:04 - Finding the right level of fees that investors should pay?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI08: Trend Following...Austrian Style ft. Michael Neubauer & Joseph Waldstein from SMN
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein from SMN Investment Services, a Vienna, Austria-based systematic trend following manager with a 28-year track record. Michael and Joseph explain how they initially got interested in trend following and how their systems have evolved over the years. Moreover, the discuss why trading many different markets – as many as possible – is important for their approach, and that the inclusion of synthetic markets such as spreads and baskets as well as less liquid exotic/alternative markets improves SMN’s risk-adjusted returns. Last but not least, Michael and Joseph explain why they trade VIX futures and why this is a market they trade with a different methodology given the mean-reversion pattern of variance, and how they are monitoring this market – and potentially exiting open positions - on an hourly basis.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Joseph on LinkedIn.
Follow Michael on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein
05:52 - How did they learn about trend following?
14:18 - The perfect match?
15:12 - What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?
16:52 - What is causing dispersion in the trend following space?
19:32 - The dangers of overoptimization
23:00 - What are their definition of risk?
27:20 - Are more markets better?
33:21 - Their research process
37:18 - What is their smallest and least liquid market they trade?
39:01 - How they use synthetic markets in their trading
41:20 - Their considerations about cash equities
43:30 - Why are they trading the VIX index?
46:36 - What is the outlook for trend following?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI300: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Rules ft. Richard Brennan
Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the optimal way of doing trend following and how to find the optimal set of rules to use in different market regimes, how to examine market states through Markov models and how artificial intelligence will impact trend following and make short-term trading incredibly competitive. Lastly, we ask ChatGPT what the optimal way of doing trend following is.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?
04:03 - Industry performance update
07:50 - Q1, Dennis: Given the nature of lengthy hold periods, do you recommend trading cash CFD's accounting for the overnight costs?
11:40 - Q2, Ramki: Using ATR for position sizing when backtesting a trend following system
14:47 - Optimal rules to use in different kinds of market regimes
18:46 - How to use Markov models and mathematical algorithms to optimize trend following strategies
41:17 - Is trend following threatened by AI?
51:39 - "ChatGPT, what is the optimal way of doing trend following?"
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL27: Unlocking the Secrets of Great Communication ft. Charles Duhigg
In this episode, we speak with Charles Duhigg, a renowned author and writer for The New Yorker, who won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for exploratory journalism. His book, "The Power of Habit," spent three years on the New York Times bestseller list. Charles joins us to discuss his new book, "Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection." Our conversation centers around the importance of effective communication in personal and professional relationships, including in the investment industry. Charles explains how to become a "supercommunicator" and outlines the four rules for meaningful conversations. He highlights the types of questions top communicators ask and what we can say or do to make our conversations more meaningful and productive. Finally, we explore the unique rules of communication in the digital age and the distinction between communication and manipulation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Charles on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:05 - Introduction to Charles Duhigg
06:30 - Every conversation is a negotiation
09:21 - It takes two to tango?
11:09 - The importance of listening
13:42 - The magic of understanding each other
15:05 - What is stopping us from having deep connections?
18:40 - How to ask the right questions
23:18 - Advice for having meaningful conversations
28:02 - The business value of deep connections
31:27 - The importance of non-verbal communication
36:28 - How to match the mood of other people
38:48 - The role of identities in communication
42:23 - What does Duhigg means with "identity threat"?
47:48 - How does it apply online?
51:11 - Communication vs. manipulation
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI299: Sharing the Trend Following Pie ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer where we discuss the outlook for inflation and why Andrew believes there is an existential crisis in macro economic modelling. We then touch on the question "if trend followers might be the only true short sellers left" as well as how to deal with the lag effect when using replication models. We round off our conversation discussing why Andrew believes we should all “share the trend following pie” and why the managed futures space is stalling when it comes to AuM, why he believes that money is “packed anxiety” for most people, why the ETF space needs an injection of positivity and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:44 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:04 - Is what we thought was "normal" Real Yields actually not normal?
09:30 - Are the trend followers the only true short sellers left?
19:09 - How do CTAs react to the lower prices?
21:35 - Industry performance update
23:00 - Q1, Joe: How do you deal with the lag effect in replication models?
32:36 - Let's share the trend following pie
40:38 - The disadvantages of the institutional world
43:56 - Why is the managed futures space not growing?
49:49 - A crazy story from Andrew
56:26 - Are low-cost offers killing the industry?
01:02:39 - The ETF costs dont add up?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM62: How to Build a Future-Proof Portfolio ft. Bob Elliott
Today, Cem and I welcome Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds and former right-hand man to Ray Dalio at Bridgewater. Bob shares what he learned from his decade at Bridgewater and discusses the unique income-led economic expansion currently happening in the US, contrasting it with typical credit-driven expansions. He also explains why most investors are wrongly positioned in today's macro landscape and how they can create a balanced and diversified portfolio. Bob emphasizes the importance of optimizing portfolio allocation to protect against market volatility and unpredictability, and he discusses how to gain access to alternative investments, along with the challenges these assets present. Finally, Cem provides an update on his outlook for 2024.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Bob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:42 - What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?
04:24 - The secret to Bridgewaters success
07:17 - Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework
10:46 - The outlook for interest rates
15:31 - Is inflation here to stay?
20:48 - The outlook for asset allocation
25:48 - The role of demographics
30:04 - A collective memory
32:53 - Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio
36:37 - Elliott's approach to diversification
42:22 - How to get access to alternative markets
46:24 - What drove Elliott intro replication?
51:45 - Why the majority of investors are invested in the wrong way
57:15 - The state of the global exchange rate markets
01:00:44 - Are US stocks trading as Cem exptected into the June Opex?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI298: The Trend Following ETF Revolution ft. Katy Kaminski
Together with Katy Kaminski, we dive deep into the ETF space to better understand how you can utilize a new wave of ETFs as an investor. Katy describes the transition many Trend Following managers have gone through to get into the ETF space and how you can integrate the Trend Following ETFs in your own portfolio. We discuss if or how due diligence in the ETF space may be different from traditional due diligence and the different paths into the ETF space managers have chosen. We also discuss fee considerations when building ETF models and how to choose the right replicator, and if we are likely to have too many firms replicating the same few CTA indices. We end our conversation with some thoughts on how AI will impact the trend following industry and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:56 - Industry performance update
07:41 - Our thoughts on CTA offerings in the ETF space
13:40 - Is giving people more liquidity a good thing?
17:32 - Why include ETFs in your portfolio?
21:43 - Use cases for ETFs
25:00 - How does the due diligence process work in the ETF space?
28:58 - Are we becoming a Relative Return industry?
32:01 - Is the increasing trader anonymity a problem?
34:33 - The different paths into the ETF space
40:57 - How ETFs compare to classic managed futures products
43:30 - Should you consider fees when building ETF models?
47:32 - How to choose the right replicator
51:06 - How AI might affect the trend following industry
56:55 - A red card to AI?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM61: The New Politics: Neoliberal Decline and Authoritarian Rise ft. Gary Gerstle
Join Alan Dunne in conversation with Gary Gerstle, Professor of American History at the University of Cambridge and author of "The Rise and Fall of The Neoliberal Order", as they delve into the shifting landscape of the global political order. From the decline of the New Deal Order to the ramifications of the Global Financial Crisis, Gary traces the trajectory of the Neoliberal Order and its impact on contemporary society. Exploring the nuances of Bidenomics, they analyse the sustainability of current fiscal and industrial policies amidst rising inequality and geopolitical tensions. Gary shares insights on the potential rise of authoritarianism worldwide, the implications of protectionism, and the prospect of increased antitrust activism in the US. Finally, they turn their attention to the upcoming US presidential elections, examining the contenders and the pivotal factors that could shape the outcome.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on X
Follow Gary on X
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Garry Gerstle
05:50 - Understanding political order and neoliberalism
12:04 - How important are the economic principles in dismantling the neoliberal order?
20:06 - What will drive the new political order?
29:01 - How the West's approach to China has changed
36:19 - Do banks have too much power?
43:34 - Is the U.S deficit a constraint going forward?
47:24 - The 4 freedoms of neoliberalism
53:34 - The challenges of the technological evolution
01:02:16 - Thoughts on how the election might end up
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Si297: Trend Following as a Return Enhancement Overlay ft. Alan Dunne
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne helps us uncover the latest news and data within the global macro landscape. We also discuss the state of the quant macro space, how it compares to trend following and what allocators should consider when comparing the two. Then we break down how family offices are looking to allocate assets at the moment before we turn our attention to a potential new narrative within the trend following world - namely, how trend following can be used as an return enhancement overlay, instead of "crisis alpha". We also dive deep into fees and returns in the multi-strategy space and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:58 - Is OpenAI falling apart?
09:19 - U.K. and European Parliament elections - should investors care?
11:52 - What is neoliberalism?
12:54 - Unpacking the current global macro landscape
19:07 - Are central banks defeating their own purpose?
22:42 - Industry performance update
25:39 - What is going on with quant macro?
32:00 - Trend follower or quant macro fund - what is hardest to analyze?
34:39 - How are family offices looking to allocate assets currently?
37:43 - Any allocation to whiskey?
39:31 - Trend following: Return Enhancement Overlay or Crisis Alpha?
47:13 - Advice for using trend following as an enhancement overlay
49:46 - How multi-strategy funds achieve smooth return streams
01:00:09 - Multi-strat managers - contact us!
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL26: How New Technologies Will Shape the Economy ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
In this episode we speak to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels. Koen is Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis and Philippe is Chief Strategist. They are co-authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends: Investing in Times of Superinflation, Hyperinnovation and Climate Transition. We talk about how technologies like AI, 3D printing will drive economic growth and why they are likely to create more jobs than they destroy. Another important trend from a market perspective is the potential for a doubling of the gold price and possibility of a new ‘super cycle’ for industrial metals.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Koen on LinkedIn and read his book.
Follow Philippe on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:16 - Introduction to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels
06:22 - Why haven't we seen higher productivity?
12:11 - What is the chance that productivity could increase?
17:36 - When can we expect productivity to increase?
19:51 - Will AI "steal" our jobs?
24:43 - How you can navigate in the AI trends as an investor
32:17 - Is it even possible for "normal" investors to benefit from AI?
35:26 - Is the energy transition a good investment?
40:51 - A new commodity or metal super cycle?
45:10 - Exploiting the commodity trends
48:12 - Is natural gas a good transition fuel?
52:01 - Why is Philippe so positive on gold?
56:48 - What are their inflation expectations?
01:02:19 - Challenging years ahead?
01:08:00 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski is back to discuss the latest investor sentiment survey from Societe Generale’s Capital Consulting team, to find out what strategies investors are losing interest in and which are seeing more demand right now. We also dig into how the performance of economies greatly depends on the type of government policies and how going from multilateralism to bilateralism impacts trend following, the complexity of being a systematic manager and the phalacy of consensus. Mark also explains why we need to look beyond price and consider the drivers of price, what the VUCA framework is and how/why to use it, whether trend following is becoming too complicated and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:59 - Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want...latest survey?
12:17 - Discussing the data
18:30 - Industry performance update
21:26 - Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit?
25:08 - From multilateralism to bilateralism
29:42 - The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager
36:31 - The fallacy of consensus
40:23 - Using economic data as a trend follower
43:14 - Is price truth?
47:38 - VUCA - what, why and how?
54:50 - Applying VUCA to trend following
57:46 - Is trend following becoming too complicated?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin
Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Richard on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin
06:31 - A noticeable shift?
08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?
13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator
18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?
24:24 - Balancing competing forces
30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios
33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in their portfolios?
40:00 - The dangers of pessimism
44:27 - Their approach to alternative assets and strategies
48:38 - Their perspective on high-risk managers
51:15 - Their manager selection process
55:06 - How does the current environment dictate investing?
58:13 - About Urwin's PhD on option pricing
01:02:40 - Advice for other allocators
01:05:16 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas
Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - What has been on our radar recently?
12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far?
15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy!
16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?
27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?
35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?
39:22 - Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?
46:54 - Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times
57:48 - What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?
59:09 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows
In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors, joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Tad on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows
12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors
15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community?
19:52 - Why not the traditional route?
23:14 - How are they allocated?
27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio
35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?
40:18 - Micro or macro?
45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in markets
47:04 - Why are they staying away from hedge funds?
49:32 - Why are they using trend following?
52:24 - Their thoughts on crypto
56:29 - Generating ideas and finding priorities
01:01:29 - Advice for other investors
01:07:05 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan
Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?
06:53 - A recap of April
10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following
14:30 - The interesting commodities
18:10 - A commodity super cycle inbound?
20:36 - BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022
22:51 - How commodity storage functions
29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence
32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works
35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation
42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?
47:06 - Manual or systematized?
48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities
53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?
54:16 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework
07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation
12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?
21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?
27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?
32:16 - How election periods affect the economy
40:22 - A wall of worry
43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility
48:03 - A push-pull effect
51:41 - Is trend following the solution?
54:39 - The optimal portfolio in 2024
01:01:04 - A time of opportunity?
01:03:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan
Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?
03:11 - Industry performance update
05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?
12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro
18:09 - Important market development recently?
31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios
35:48 - The structure of markets
42:23 - Are rate cuts coming?
48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative
53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump
56:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic
Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marko on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Marko's current macro framework
07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world
14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?
23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane
31:48 - The election - a macro black hole
36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective
44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?
49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global conflicts?
56:15 - Creating strong relationships
01:02:50 - Will China invade Taiwan in the next 5 years?
01:05:30 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:15 - Industry performance update
09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?
13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?
20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?
26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?
27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy
32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation
41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation
46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa
57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence
59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer
In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer
04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?
07:19 - What drives the cycles?
09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles
12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?
14:39 - Interpreting the signals
17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?
21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?
26:54 - Are companies losing their margins?
29:17 - The potential of AI
31:54 - Can high energy consumption ruin the development of AI?
35:48 - Where will the investment in AI come from?
40:00 - Going full cycle
41:37 - The engines of growth
43:43 - Did the central bank response stop markets from becoming volatile?
48:13 - The role of central banks
51:22 - Getting out of a period of high debt
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan
In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - What has been on our radar recently?
08:33 - Industry performance update
16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following?
24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?
27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?
31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?
37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?
42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach
46:44 - What about the fees?
50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve?
58:45 - The impact of crises
01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter
01:08:26 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU146: The value of Unpredictable Alpha ft. Anthony Todd
Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Todd on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital
05:43 - A global macro perspective
09:45 - How has the industry evolved?
13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend?
17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer?
20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds
25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies
29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors
33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies?
39:11 - How are allocations funded now?
42:28 - CTAs - competitors or a different allocation?
44:44 - Does capping the beta make sense?
49:21 - Are investors becoming too difficult?
52:49 - Todd's view on the use of artificial intelligence
58:13 - Has trend following changed because of AI?
01:02:53 - Excitement and concerns for 2024
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - Industry performance update
06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?
11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?
13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following
16:58 - Industry performance update continued
18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?
22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?
30:51 - A period of normalcy
34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative
42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?
46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?
52:35 - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)
57:08 - Finding the optimal allocation
01:04:27 - Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation
01:07:11 - Different allocations for different situations?
01:11:10 - Too old for unrealistic expectations
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO22: Finding an Absolute Return Solution for a C$11BN Pension Plan ft. Christophe L'Ahelec
Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:50 - Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec
07:06 - A new initiative
10:01 - What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?
12:40 - What goes into which bucket?
14:45 - What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?
16:31 - Constructing an absolute return portfolio
18:38 - How they approach trend following
21:58 - Why do they use leverage?
23:32 - What do they expect from their portfolio?
25:12 - Managing liabilities
27:58 - Public equities - where do they stand?
30:59 - Investing in niche strategies
34:11 - How they evaluate managers
36:21 - Open to early stage manager risk?
41:42 - What makes a manager stand out?
44:56 - When should you remove a manager?
46:47 - What is their governance process?
50:36 - How they make decisions as a team
52:20 - Advice for new investors
55:34 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman
03:54 - Things are changing
09:54 - Industry performance update
13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing
16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa
21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect
24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?
28:31 - Less markets = better performance?
30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market
39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index
45:09 - A euphoric environment
49:47 - What makes trend following unique?
54:50 - Global macro vs. trend following
59:01 - A rotation in the alternative markets
01:03:15 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK SI289: Global Macro and Managed Futures Hedge Fund Strategies: Portfolio Differentiators?
- LINK SI289: A Century of Macro Factor Investing
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI07: The Evolution of Short-Term Trading ft. Tony Kaiser
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia.
Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Tony on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:16 - Introduction to Tony Kaiser
04:07 - An interesting journey
16:50 - A difficult space for alpha
20:55 - Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?
28:17 - How has trading frequency and systems evolved?
33:15 - Do Kaiser's original models still work today?
45:28 - A shock to the system
49:43 - Where does the low correlation come from?
57:00 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne
Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?
05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?
14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?
20:41 - Industry performance update
24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook
32:29 - Equities are here for the long term
37:57 - All in on equities?
44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong
46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?
50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?
53:28 - Choosing the right strategy
58:00 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK SI288: Why Not 100% Equities
- LINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?
- LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based Investing
- LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut
- LINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View Mirror
- LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?
- LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift Framework
- LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No
- LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Ricardo on LinkedIn
Follow Pedro on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro
06:18 - What is their edge?
07:57 - What commodities are they trading?
08:46 - Why they don't trade cocoa
11:09 - Acquiring information through networking
13:40 - Why and how do they trade commodity equities
17:15 - What do they consider long-term?
19:38 - Why isn't copper sky rocketing?
22:01 - Their approach to options
22:50 - How they incorporate trend following in their trading
25:24 - Global macro perspectives
27:28 - No hard landing?
28:35 - Is the coal market dying?
31:14 - The outlook of EUAs
35:03 - Do they formulate a price target in their models?
37:08 - A disconnect in the green transition
38:58 - Natural gas market integrating with LNG
40:55 - Their view on the grain markets
43:34 - A quick touch on other markets
44:20 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?
06:24 - Industry performance update
07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?
11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?
12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator
15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction
20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?
21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio
24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?
25:25 - The importance of skewness
31:06 - Mind the timeframe
34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)
38:15 - No pain, no gain...
43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)
47:33 - Dealing with a world in disruption
50:48 - Excitement and worries about 2024
57:05 - What is up for next episode?
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut
- LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland
Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Tor on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland
06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?
09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?
11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm
14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets
17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?
20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?
22:55 - Translating trends into trades
24:47 - Which markets will benefit from the energy transition?
26:55 - A slow transition
31:14 - The temperature of the global economy
35:21 - Where will we see signs of recession?
39:13 - Is disinflation a major trend?
41:14 - How extreme can it get?
42:42 - How will Europe meet its energy demands going forward??
45:13 - How the defense spending will impact markets
47:07 - Taking advantage of the spikes in markets
51:06 - How volatility sellers affect markets
52:56 - Additional observations in the commodity markets
55:18 - Putting it all together
56:52 - Why has gold miners been so slow?
58:27 - Private capital taking over?
59:20 - Advice for other investors
01:00:30 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver
This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:31 - Industry performance update
13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?
23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?
26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?
32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?
43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based investing
50:37 - A win for trend following
59:32 - Does it matter if the Fed is tightening?
01:01:53 - The Impact of Contango vs. Backwardation
01:09:57 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK SI288: Why Not 100% Equities
- LINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?
- LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based Investing
- LINK SI286: Regime-Based Investing
- LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut
- LINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View Mirror
- LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?
- LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift Framework
- LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No
- LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie
In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Hannah on LinkedIn and Read her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie
09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?
10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?
16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?
19:10 - How does nuclear play a role for our future?
21:53 - Natural gas - a perfect bridge?
23:35 - Are EVs a viable solution for transportation?
26:55 - Addressing the criticism of EVs
30:31 - Why does a plant based diet have such a big environmental impact?
34:05 - Why organic farming methods and local meat isn't really sustainable
37:59 - Why is Ritchie skeptical about vertical farming?
40:50 - Can plastic be positive for the environment?
43:16 - Managing the plastic waste
47:27 - Importing and export plastic waste
49:38 - How to be an optimal data scientist
56:11 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:13 - Industry performance update
08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?
11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets
18:08 - Is the VIX broken?
24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections
30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?
32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's
39:15 - What is going on with flows?
47:55 - The rise of meme stocks
52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar
59:59 - A wild ride for Japan
01:05:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen
Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Peter on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm
06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?
09:16 - Their investment philosophy
14:33 - A skepticism about equities?
17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?
21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?
25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets
28:20 - Where lies the most risk?
30:25 - Opportunities in the private credit space
33:21 - Building a strong defense
38:29 - Why don't more people invest?
40:41 - Madsen's view on CTAs and Global Macro
45:51 - The pitfalls of manager selection
49:29 - How important is performance?
51:39 - Constructing an efficient decision-making process
56:24 - Guiding and assessing a team of managers
59:55 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas
Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?
03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown
05:35 - Industry performance update
07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?
14:24 - The state of the industry
18:17 - Is trend following flopping?
27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios
36:15 - Pick your battles
49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?
53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?
01:04:44 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Richard on LinkedIn
Follow Bowmoor Capital.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot
05:19 - How did they get into investing?
09:43 - Why trend following?
13:55 - Solving the market puzzle
15:36 - How they designed their strategy?
18:46 - The reason for their market selection
24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?
31:13 - How did they design their system?
39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets
42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work with?
50:13 - Controlling the heat
55:31 - What is "heat" in a portfolio?
57:26 - How do they manage the heat?
01:00:06 - How they use dynamic position sizing
01:05:00 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan
Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?
07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy
08:33 - Industry performance update
11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?
17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks
36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance
44:42 - Is bigger always better?
52:43 - The importance of system diversification
01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters
01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market
01:09:41 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff
Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Kiril's work on 13D.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff
05:21 - Are we heading back to "normal"?
11:17 - Will China become an inflationary force?
14:30 - Is China still investable?
17:05 - A Chinese confidence crisis
18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective
23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?
25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?
27:57 - The move towards nuclear energy
29:55 - U.S vs. Europe vs. China
33:12 - How to position for the next 20 years
35:12 - Why is Sokoloff a fan of gold?
39:13 - A move away from the dollar
44:50 - Understanding the gold market
49:05 - How will AI impact the economy?
51:30 - India - the next China?
53:34 - How will the decarbonization evolve?
55:38 - Sokoloff's favorite contrarian calls
57:50 - Sokoloff's process for generation ideas
59:24 - Advice for other investors
02:02:03 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:53 - A dark time
04:24 - Industry performance update
10:57 - Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)
21:59 - What does it take to change investors minds?
33:26 - No one can erase 2022, and that is important
35:01 - A misleading narrative in the managed futures space
38:30 - Long or short term - who performed the best?
43:39 - Are stocks becoming less relevant?
53:22 - An update on the ETF space
56:25 - An existential crisis within equity hedge funds
58:55 - Capitalism and the political discourse
01:03:58 - Is democracy on its last legs?
01:06:32 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald
Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Frances on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald
06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?
13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?
20:43 - Where are the weak spots?
23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?
27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy
39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?
51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?
53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?
59:35 - Advice for the other investors
01:01:15 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?
02:27 - Industry performance update
06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat
12:14 - The drivers of price
17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period
22:48 - Managers have different personalities
29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?
32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis
39:32 - More markets = better returns?
44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms
49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?
54:34 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut
- LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson
In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well. Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Read her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Amy Edmondson
10:27 - The importance of psychological safety
15:04 - The different types of failure
18:25 - Why do we fear to fail?
22:54 - The idea of reframing
25:04 - Practicing reframing
27:06 - Has the way students work changed?
30:25 - The dark side of the performance mindset
32:40 - Integrating feedback the right way
36:16 - The Stop. Challenge. Choose Method
41:02 - The key aspect of failing well
44:48 - How can we cultivate intelligent failure?
50:35 - Conceptualizing excellence in a new way
53:33 - Encouraging openness while maintaining intellectual property
56:33 - A philosophical perspective
01:00:36 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne
As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:26 - The importance of liquidity
06:39 - The global macro picture
11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?
16:10 - What about China?
21:24 - Industry performance update
24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?
32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds
37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns
43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?
55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?
57:28 - The outlook of the next decade
01:02:32 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut
- LINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View Mirror
- LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?
- LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift Framework
- LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No
- LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark
Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Casey on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark
07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?
10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?
12:04 - Who are their clients?
12:45 - How do they build their strategies?
14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI
16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?
17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers
21:49 - Having the right benchmark
24:34 - What makes a good investment process?
26:08 - How do they come up with new ideas?
30:13 - Investing with ESG in mind
34:30 - A constraint or opportunity?
36:56 - Are we approaching a changing investment environment?
41:55 - How mega trends will shape the macro landscape
50:36 - A shift in the 60/40 portfolio?
54:17 - Is there a place for alternatives?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski
In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - A funny story from Katy
02:34 - An important shout-out
03:42 - A rare event in Denmark
06:55 - Industry performance update
08:10 - Thoughts on 2024 so far
09:42 - The difference between momentum and trend following
13:53 - Convergent vs. divergent strategies
24:08 - What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?
28:03 - What makes you a pure trend follower?
32:53 - Looking back at 2023
37:48 - An unusual year
43:22 - Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income
47:43 - How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?
51:11 - What does your position mean?
54:40 - Next big bull market in commodities?
56:10 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Dave on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation
07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?
14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity
24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?
31:35 - A system under pressure
38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?
42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?
53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?
01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin
01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?
10:14 - Industry performance update
11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?
19:46 - Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system
29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program
37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?
41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies
45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!
52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin
01:04:31 - Looking into 2024
01:08:38 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Scott on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson
08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?
13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?
20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?
22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?
24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?
26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading
30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach
31:26 - A need for long-term?
33:09 - What is the capacity of the markets?
34:28 - What is the total AUM of alternative market CTAs today?
35:30 - Their core research philosophy
37:53 - The key barriers to entry
39:52 - How have they gone through 2023?
41:07 - Is there any market that stand out from the others?
43:16 - The outlook of the alternative markets CTA space
45:36 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:02 - Industry performance update
06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?
11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?
16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?
24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation
27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?
32:19 - Under the hood of inflation
34:23 - What is normal?
39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world
46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?
49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective
53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball
59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge
01:03:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast
In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Joe on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:46 - Introduction to Joe Prendergast
04:50 - Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse
07:00 - What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?
09:49 - Prendergast's investment philosophy
13:59 - How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?
16:32 - Could we have another 2022?
18:56 - Having metrics for success
26:50 - Managing cash flow
31:43 - Shooting for a higher return
39:33 - Dealing with bumps on the road
43:48 - Prendergast's experience with the hedge fund industry
46:29 - Working as a Europe based FX investor
51:10 - Balancing attractive earnings capabilities vs a higher valuation starting point
55:13 - How Prendergast incorporates ESGs in his allocation
59:46 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2
In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - Trend following in an unpredictable world
09:50 - What is a considered as a good backtest?
21:09 - How much change is too much change?
28:50 - Our most important lesson in 2023
36:11 - What is the next phase of the fixed income trade?
46:01 - Geopolitics and looking into 2024
55:42 - Should we go all out diversification?
01:05:14 - Outrageous predictions for 2024
01:10:32 - Happy New Year!
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters
05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?
06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro
11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve
15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?
19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot
22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias
24:11 - The yield is destiny
27:28 - What range are we operating in?
28:43 - Will inflation be stickier than we expect?
33:03 - The impact of a changing globalization
35:42 - Analyzing the poor productivity numbers
38:05 - The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy
42:54 - China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio
44:27 - Opportunities in emerging markets
46:47 - Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function
49:13 - How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?
51:29 - The possibilities of recession
56:19 - Advice for other investors
57:59 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI275: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 1
Join us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we discuss what you are looking for in a good backtest, how to approach making changes to your model and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - Introduction to this special edition of Systematic Investor
03:07 - Looking back on 2023 and into 2024
13:06 - Let's talk about volatility
19:42 - Volatility from a banker's perspective
25:13 - The value of non-trend strategies and smooth returns
40:40 - What is going with the SG Trend Index?
50:20 - How trend followers classify themselves
01:02:00 - End of part 1
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL22: The Fund - The Other Side of Dalio & Bridgewater ft. Rob Copeland
In this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for years as a Wall Street Journal reporter paints a radically different picture. Instead of encouraging truth, Copeland’s book documents a rigged feedback system that keeps Dalio permanently at the top and a culture where fear of upsetting Dalio suppresses the truth rather than encourages it. Copeland also claims that Bridgewater’s investment process is far less systematic than it claims, with Dalio ‘calling the shots’. Bridgewater strongly disputes all of these conclusions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Rob Copeland and his book
04:37 - Copelands's relation to Ray Dalio and how the book started
09:14 - How Copeland reacted to lawsuit threats
11:03 - The logic behind the "baseball cards" concept
13:03 - How Dalio interpreted and rigged the outcome of the baseball cards
14:52 - How well known was Dalio's "rigged" rankings?
16:06 - How did Dalio's "trial" methods work?
21:03 - What can we learn from Ray Dalio's principles?
23:12 - How the MC Cycle functioned
27:55 - What is Dalio's core skill?
29:46 - Did Dalio believe in his own principles?
33:03 - Why Copeland is comfortable with his narrative about Dalio?
38:00 - Why don't we see a bigger footprint from Bridgewater in the markets?
40:57 - Did Bridgewater investors not notice?
44:30 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI274: Can You Time Trend Following? ft. Nick Baltas
Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “good enough” performance, the future of the 60/40 portfolio and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:10 - What's been on our radar recently?
05:09 - Industry performance update
06:51 - Q1, Nicolas: Can you replace price with sharpe and trend follow that input instead?
17:52 - Q2, Andrew: Is there any validity in having additional accelerators in a system and how would it be used?
25:03 - Article: Are trend following CTAs truly long volatility?
33:26 - Article: Breaking bad trends
42:19 - Know when to be long and short
45:15 - Article: Managed futures rotation
52:40 - Sometimes good enough is good enough
57:02 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio
01:03:57 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK 274: Are TF CTAs truly long vol?
- LINK 274: Breaking Bad Trends
- LINK 274: Managed Futures Rotation
- LINK 274: What Is the Future of the 60/40 Portfolio?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GAL07: Avoiding Apocalypse Through Quantum Physics & AI ft. Klee Irwin
AI is stealing the headlines with what seems like wave after wave of breakthroughs, but running parallel to this are equally rapid advancements in quantum physics and our understanding of reality. Listen in on this complex yet nuanced conversation with Klee Irwin, Founder of Quantum Gravity Research as he shares his views on physics, AI, and the accelerating course humanity finds itself on, and how it ties in to us as investors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Klee on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:31 - Introduction to Klee Irwin
07:43 - Quantum technology and the double-slit experiment
23:53 - The retro causality experiment
26:49 - Understanding the self-simulation hypothesis
50:16 - What is going on with AI?
59:48 - Where can you follow Klee Irwin?
01:02:10 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI273: Unraveling the Mystery of Complex Adaptive Systems ft. Richard Brennan
How do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:08 - Industry performance update
08:21 - Q1, Adam: In terms of loose pants, how loose is too loose?
13:36 - Trading with different models
15:42 - Adam Q2: What is a reasonable sample size in real trade observations, to compare against backtest statistics?
18:23 - A deep dive into complex adaptive systems (CAS)
20:29 - The 5 properties of CAS
25:24 - Examples of non-linearty in financial markets
30:50 - Emerging properties in financial markets
33:59 - Self organization
36:33 - Adaption and evolution
40:10 - Feedback loops
43:11 - What does CAS and trend following have in common?
49:38 - The limitations of traditional statistics
01:01:14 - Summing it all up
01:04:48 - What's next?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow David on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly
05:44 - What has become of the recession?
08:38 - Are we missing an accident?
11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?
13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?
14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?
17:15 - What happened to the bond market?
19:31 - High debt and high deficit - a new normal?
21:48 - Kelly's outlook for the next decade
23:42 - Inflation in the U.S.
27:29 - A new equilibrium
30:14 - Discussing inflation on a global scale
33:35 - The state of the asset allocation environment
35:37 - Should you look beyond the 60/40 portfolio?
39:04 - The magnificent seven
40:50 - A political mess
44:51 - How will Artificial Intelligence impact the economy?
47:55 - Managing the labour shortage
50:13 - An all-time high misery
51:36 - A discontent with the economy
53:50 - An outlook of the political landscape
56:14 - How does the shifting demographics impact the economy?
57:57 - Is an aging population disinflationary?
59:07 - Advice for investors
01:01:34 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI272: Disrupting the Asset Management Industry ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, who helps us uncover why managed futures have been struggling in 2023 and and what makes this year so different from 2022. We discuss the history of replication strategies all the way back to its origins and the intricacies of Andrew’s own replication strategy, and how disruptions have change the asset management industry and if the replicators are now facing their own competition from more pure CTA ETF offerings. We debate if Managed Futures have been "commoditized" and how the 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback this year and if 2022 was just a "fluke".
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:35 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:04 - Industry performance update
08:08 - How bad 2023 is for managed futures?
13:19 - A turn away from trend?
18:29 - Timeframe and lookback in CTA replication
27:02 - The details of Andrew's trading approach
33:01 - How increased competition impacts Andrew's trading
41:31 - How low can you go, when it comes to fees?
48:17 - The great underestimated risk
51:30 - What drives asset flows?
01:00:04 - Is 60/40 back on track?
01:07:13 - Just look at the AUM
01:11:15 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI03: The inner workings of a High-Frequency Strategy ft. Anant Jatia
Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Anant on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Anant Jatia
06:39 - Anant's experience from working at AQR
08:46 - How did Anant's firm evolve over time?
10:44 - How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?
14:33 - What is their current trading strategy?
17:07 - An example of one of their trades
21:17 - Staying away from the physical side
23:33 - Tracking the market and executing trades
27:18 - Managing the cost of trades
29:58 - How did they get through the Covid19 period?
34:37 - How many markets are they trading?
36:49 - The process of trading copper
38:43 - How do you obtain transportation costs?
40:47 - Achieving the optimal trading efficiency
43:37 - A multi-legged trading strategy
47:34 - Anant's perspective on the Natural Gas markets
50:50 - Putting it all together
54:39 - Building for negative tail events
57:26 - What kind of exposure do they have?
59:17 - Key takeaways
59:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI271: Can Slippage be a Source of Alpha? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up debating how much slippage a trend follower should expect and if slippage can be turned into a new source of alpha.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?
02:20 - Industry performance update
04:51 - What is going on in the markets?
09:01 - Reverse engineering the CTAs
11:45 - Confusion in the markets
14:38 - Are we being lied to about inflation?
20:24 - Mixed signals
22:14 - What are investors asking in meetings at the moment?
25:33 - Modeling with personality
32:25 - Losers create diversification
36:13 - Things that are often being forgotten
38:15 - Narratives and explanatory depth
47:04 - Are short-term models better than longer-term models?
50:34 - Does new = better?
56:42 - Getting the backtest and transactions costs right
59:31 - Don't overstep your capacity
01:01:29 - Minimizing slippage
01:04:23 - What is a reasonable level of slippage
01:06:48 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Dario on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins
07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?
12:27 - Where are we now?
17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?
23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?
26:37 - A sticky inflation
28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?
32:52 - A concern for real-estate?
38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?
46:21 - Are central bankers bluffing?
51:15 - Will there be limits to physical policy?
59:11 - The outlook for asset allocation and currencies
01:03:42 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI270: CPI, Trend Reversals & Dalio on US-China War ft. Alan Dunne
Today, we are joined by Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation, covering pressing global macro issues, the latest trend following research, JP Morgan's outlook for the 60/40 portfolio, following a week dominated by the release of the CPI numbers. We discuss how and why Ray Dalio believes the hot war between the US and China is changing and why the US is seeing an unusually low savings rate at the moment and why Alan believes there are plenty of possibilities in the non-trend space. We also discuss the benefits that trend following can add to your portfolio, how Blackstone is boosting the leverage in one of its Credit Funds...and if this seems like a good idea and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:08 - What has been on our radar recently?
09:44 - Industry performance update
15:33 - A new war in sight?
21:17 - News about the US savings rate
23:54 - A positive outlook for productivity?
30:13 - CFM paper on the benefit of non-trend strategies
41:57 - J.P. Morgan paper on the outlook of the 60/40 portfolio
50:28 - Quantica paper on trend vs global tactical asset allocation
58:12 - FT article on Blackstone borrowing to boost lending power
01:03:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI02: Are QI Strategies Sustainable? ft. Maia Mathieson & Faheem Osman
Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman, both Managing Directors at Macquarie Bank in London speak with Moritz Seibert about the bank’s growing Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) business and how their rules-based indices can help investors to efficiently access various risk premium strategies across asset classes. Maia and Faheem explain the key return drivers behind their commodity-focused strategies, for example curve carry and congestion, and explain why they believe these to be structurally sustainable. We also discuss their client base and how the Macquarie QIS team focuses on designing robust indices that are not curve-fit to historical data.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Maia on LinkedIn
Follow Faheem on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Maia & Faheem
08:48 - What are the most popular return drivers?
11:35 - What is driving carry trading?
15:10 - When does carry trading stop working?
17:23 - Combing strategies for more diversification
20:26 - Why does the volatility carry factor exist in the commodity space?
22:52 - How do they have an advantage over their competitors?
24:40 - What is their core client base?
28:38 - How are they giving their clients an edge?
30:25 - Concerns about the commodity space
32:30 - How they analyze and validate their work
36:23 - A long term strategy
40:01 - How have they evolved over time?
43:20 - A changing landscape?
46:54 - A move towards machine learning and AI
48:59 - Learning from other asset classes
51:36 - An increased interest in non-standard commodity markets
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski
Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?
04:24 - A precursor for the conversation
05:21 - Industry performance update
07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective
11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"
16:06 - The results of the paper
21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference
24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted
26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?
33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?
35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?
37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change
42:52 - Different people, different perspectives
46:39 - Doing what happens next
48:12 - Best practices when analyzing the data
54:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini
07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?
11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?
14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?
19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?
25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis
29:08 - Will AI save us?
32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth
36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?
41:40 - The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?
44:06 - China and Japan being deflationary?
45:23 - Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?
47:50 - The outlook for equities
52:14 - The U.S vs the rest
53:32 - Advice for new investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI268: Are Investors Wrongly Positioned for the New World Order? ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan returns to help us uncover the art of tail hedging and whether he views the January 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point and start of a new bear market. We discuss the latest events in the macro space, especially regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and how it impacts markets, why Niels believes we are probably heading towards a world where investors are completely wrongly positioned and why it is important to think differently when it comes to asset allocation. Lastly, Cem explains how the incoming holiday season acts as a volatility compression mechanism, what he took away from the recent CBOE RMC Conference and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:08 - What has been on Cem's radar recently?
03:15 - Industry performance update
05:25 - Q1, Tim: What systematic strategies would Cem suggest for hedging risk from a risk premia strategy with a trend following bias?
12:20 - Q2, Rick: Does Cem view the Jan 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point (to the downside)?
15:52 - What is new in the macro space?
23:16 - Is the MOVE index behaving as it should?
27:43 - Is Japan a joker when it comes to interest rates?
32:17 - Hidden dangers?
36:12 - Wars - a driver of spending, deficits and inflation
40:28 - What current Flows are telling us
45:48 - Cem's takeaways from the CBOE RMC Conference
01:02:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI1: Cracking the Code of Commodity Spread Trading ft. Mauritz van den Worm
You are invited to an eye-opening conversation with Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by Moritz Seibert. In this inaugural episode of the Open Interest series, Mauritz takes us on a journey through the fascinating world of commodity spreads. We explore not only calendar spreads but also delve into cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads.
Discover how PolarStar navigates the intricate South African commodity markets and the critical role they play in their portfolio. Additionally, Mauritz shares an intriguing firsthand account of PolarStar's position in the US versus European grain spreads at the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Learn how a simultaneous limit-up in the US and limit-down in Europe led to what Mauritz humorously refers to as "a few gray hairs." This is a must-listen for anyone intrigued by the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Mauritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to the new series
03:28 - Introduction to Mauritz van den Worm and PolarStar Management
09:53 - A deep dive into the South African market
16:26 - What kind of trader is Polar Star Management?
19:55 - Entering and exiting trades
23:37 - How PolarStar Management establishes and analyzes trades
30:53 - How PolarStar uses data
33:39 - Different kinds of maize (corn)
35:07 - How you size a spread within a portfolio
39:39 - The role and importance of storage
45:14 - Adjusting for seasonality
47:06 - Looking back on the last 2 years
49:47 - Why did traders not want European wheat?
55:46 - What happened to the wheat market?
56:58 - How tough is the commodity space?
59:16 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI267: A Masterclass in Absolute vs Cross Sectional Momentum ft. Richard Brennan
In today’s episode, Richard Brennan takes us on a tour around the Australian economy and how the investment landscape is changing. We also discuss how different investment philosophies demand different interpretations and why the “one size fits all” approach does not exist, how cross-sectional momentum differs from absolute momentum. Lastly, we discuss why Richard uses an ensemble of trend following systems and why he always strives for maximum diversification, and why I feel we should not introduce divisiveness in the trend following industry and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What is happening in Australia at the moment?
07:53 - The investment landscape is changing
09:57 - Best UCITS Managed Futures Fund revealed
13:17 - Industry performance update
16:25 - Why does OJ keep rising?
19:54 - There is no "one size fits all" approaches
26:44 - How does cross-sectional momentum work?
31:12 - The importance of correlation
40:26 - Nuancing "treating all markets equally"
48:00 - The use of continuous signals
53:03 - How does absolute momentum works?
59:13 - Discussing sample size
01:01:30 - The principle of no selection bias
01:04:16 - Why Rich uses traditional risk measures
01:06:56 - Letting profits run to their conclusion
01:08:03 - Single asset level risk vs portfolio level risk
01:08:59 - Releasing the risk steam
01:10:37 - Using simple models
01:13:46 - Trend following - not so black and white?
01:22:45 - Thanks for hanging in there
01:24:11 - What's up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO17: Inflation, Volatility, and AI: Ruffer's Bold Market Insights ft. Matt Smith
Today we are joined by Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer for a fascinating discussion on global markets, asset allocation and how history can guide us in the current global macro landscape. Matt explains why Ruffer is defensively positioned at the moment, why he is sceptical of the AI rally in stocks in recent months and where is he sees opportunity in markets at the moment. We discuss the secular outlook for inflation and why Matt believes we sill see greater volatility and a trend higher in inflation over time and what that means for asset allocation. We also delve into the parallels between the current investing and global macro environment versus the past particularly the period between 1940 and 1970 and hear about some of the key books that have influenced Matt as an investor.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Matt on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:54 - Introduction to Matt Smith
07:51 - The resilience of the economy
11:50 - Matt's portfolio construction process
16:23 - Skepticism about the goldilocks
21:57 - The outlook for inflation
30:56 - The risk and fear of structural inflation
40:27 - What we can learn from history
46:19 - The process of finding insights from history
51:09 - Matt's perspective on financial repression
54:57 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI266: Constructing and Assessing Trading Strategies ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is back this week speaking with Alan Dunne about constructing and assessing trend following and non-trend following trading strategies. We delve into mean reversion strategies and over what time frames they might be effective and what are the pitfalls in trying to combine trend following with mean reversion. We also discuss the theory and reality of the benefits of faster trend following, Rob’s experience of this and his approach avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. We wrap up with some thoughts on AHL’s Trend ETF and how a strategy trading 20 markets might perform versus a more diversified program.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:00 - Update on recent events?
09:13 - Industry performance update
09:38 - Why is it going so well for Rob?
12:15 - The ongoing debate on term premia
17:40 - Returns in bonds versus equities
21:13 - Q1, Andrej: What's your take on systematic strategies complimenting trend?
35:22 - Q2, Harry: Can you speak about the lure of high frequency strategies for traders with modest capital?
40:46 - The challenges of fast trend following
42:15 - Trading with different account sizes
45:07 - Q3, Ravi: Techniques to prevent overfitting of a strategy
51:45 - Using boot strapping
52:42 - Q4.1, Tommy: What's your take on the AHL trend ETF?
59:20 - Q4.2, Tommy: Which scenarios do you expect equities and trend to be highly correlated?
01:01:12 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GAL6: UAPs - What Are We Really Dealing With? ft. Larry Hancock
There is no secret more carefully guarded than that of how to make atomic weapons. Nuclear technology can power us with clean energy or destroy all of human civilization. It has been alleged for decades that there is a correlation between UAP encounters and nukes, a suggestion that seems intuitive because if an advanced civilization was monitoring us, any breakthroughs in nuclear physics would certainly represent a key developmental milestone. In this episode join our Galactic Macro series host David Dorr as he interviews Larry Hancock, one of the preeminent scientific investigators into UAPs and the co-author of UAP Pattern Recognition Study 1945-1975 US Military Warfare Complex and UAP Indications Analysis, 1945-1975 United States Atomic Warfare Complex. Larry gives us a sobering analysis of the data and the facts which make it clear that we are not alone.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Buy Larry's books here.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:27 - Introduction to Larry Hancock
05:34 - How classified programs work in the U.S
13:23 - Has the Air Force lied about UAP observations?
17:09 - UAP activity around nuclear technology
22:33 - What are "they" interested in?
24:03 - The physics of UAPs
29:35 - Are UAP crashes real?
34:19 - The unusualness of the UAP Disclosure Act
38:50 - Are UAP encounters increasing?
46:53 - What are we dealing with?
52:09 - Are we getting closer or further from disclosure?
57:19 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI265: Deep Dive Into Non-Trend Complementary Strategies ft. Nick Baltas
Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:48 - What has caught our attention in markets?
04:08 - Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies
09:59 - What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?
17:28 - Adding carry to trend
22:52 - How to use utility functions
25:08 - Defining the variables
28:09 - Advice for implementing a carry strategy
36:22 - Nick's perspective on reversion strategies
40:21 - Moving beyond single stocks
47:48 - Skewness in commodities
54:30 - How climate change impacts investment strategies
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO16: Beyond 60-40... A Bold Approach to Asset Allocation ft. Troy Gayeski
Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Troy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski
11:36 - A top-down macro perspective
19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio
26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?
30:47 - Analyzing the alt space
35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate
40:00 - An overweight of privates?
44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?
46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space
52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio
55:09 - Is old school global macro still viable?
57:15 - Troy's perspective on AI tools
01:00:25 - Advice for other investors
01:02:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI264: The Evolution of the Trend Following Industry ft. Andrew Beer & Alan Dunne
Andrew Beer joins us to discuss a recent research report from Morningstar (called Market Wizards Wave Their Wands but Investors Miss the Magic) which highlights the challenges investors have in timing managed futures allocations. We get Andrew’s perspective on the evolution of the managed futures industry, particularly the evolving ETF and UCITS markets and discuss whether the CTA industry is on the road to commoditisation. We wrap up discussing a recent FT article which suggests more attractive hedge fund manager may underperform…but may be more successful in raising assets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What's been on our radar recently?
06:02 - A growing appetite for trend following?
10:45 - Who is to blame?
15:03 - Commoditization in managed futures
20:16 - Is commoditization the "right" word?
21:38 - The best way to express an equity value strategy
25:05 - How the SG Trend Index has evolved over time
30:10 - The evolution of the trend following industry
37:01 - A case of market segmentation?
40:00 - Are ETFs the future?
46:27 - Managed futures and trend following in Europe
52:24 - A discussion on fees
54:54 - Capacity - a reason for concern?
58:59 - The Alpha of Ugliness
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM51: Allocating Assets when Goldilocks Inverse ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:33 - Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann
04:05 - The global macro perspective
08:13 - The changing relationship between stocks and bonds
12:25 - Structural and cyclical issues
21:35 - Is this inflation different?
28:15 - The lag of structural effects
32:04 - The age of abundance
36:45 - Time to shift back to active management
43:10 - The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy
52:21 - A move away from bonds and how it will affect us
01:00:06 - Does the interest cycle exist?
01:00:52 - The Dynamic Balanced Bear
01:03:21 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI263: Changes aren't permanent, but change is ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:09 - What's on Mark's radar righ now?
07:25 - Multi-strategies and passthrough fees
19:13 - Industry performance update
22:28 - How is the industry holding up?
25:47 - Big moves in the commodity space
28:55 - Performance numbers
30:02 - The more things change, the more they stay the same
41:04 - Imagine the unimaginable
46:42 - How psychology impacts markets
53:45 - When and when not to be a trend follower
59:49 - A chronological snobbery?
01:04:03 - Important announcement
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson
06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?
10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency
17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?
21:21 - A rebirth of the industrial policy
25:39 - Deglobalization - how real is it?
29:31 - What has caused the roll-back of globalization?
34:13 - When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies?
37:49 - Is the secular stagnation behind us?
42:06 - Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?
44:25 - The shifting Saudi-US relationship - a potential risk?
48:35 - A challenged dollar?
53:16 - Is this time different?
57:38 - The civil discontent in the U.S.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI262: Opportunities in FX fueled by the FED ft. Alan Dunne
Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently?
04:55 - Industry performance update
08:16 - Living with high public debt
20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt
24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved
32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets?
37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions?
40:36 - Where returns may go from here?
48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?
51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event
59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes
01:00:29 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL21: How China Manages Their FX Reserves ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu
In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry
07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about
19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment
24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets
33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation
37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis
58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds
01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams
01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’
01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI261: The Biggest Story in Asset Allocation ft. Nick Baltas
Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?
03:02 - Industry performance update
04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes
10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following
19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)
23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation
27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers
35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space
38:14 - Is cash better than bonds?
41:40 - Paper from Transtrend
47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend following portfolio
52:23 - Network Momentum across Asset Classes (Oxford-Man Institute paper)
57:08 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM49: Unveiling the Power of Confidence ft. Peter Atwater
Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?
04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability
06:19 - Being in the present
07:57 - Understanding the confidence map
12:08 - How to become confident
13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience
17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant
17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience
21:23 - Map it out
22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?
28:05 - The generational shift
30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?
36:15 - Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?
42:57 - When does panic occur?
44:28 - Does it apply to markets as well?
48:34 - Thoughts on the current political situation
56:51 - Addressing major societal problems
02:03:56 - The challenges of fake news and media
02:06:14 - Process - an underrated advantage?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI260: The Voldemort of the Asset Management Business ft. Andrew Beer
Is the economy actually doing better than we expected? This week we are joined by Andrew Beer, where we discuss the use of replication strategies in the current economic environment and how many markets/factors you should include, how managers can differentiate themselves from each other and the outlook for growth in the CTA industry. We also discuss the challenges of the Lemming effect in investing and today’s obsession with multi-strategy hedge funds, the capacity of the trend following industry and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:20 - What has happened recently?
05:51 - Industry performance update?
07:13 - Are managed futures funds are right for replication?
13:55 - How did they test it?
17:23 - Are economies becoming less synchronised?
25:02 - How many markets are enough for replication?
29:01 - Why are people going into alternative markets?
32:58 - Have managers become more different or similar?
41:02 - Industry disruptions - how is Andrew different?
47:22 - Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years
54:44 - How Andrew resist making changes to his replication strategy
56:54 - Train wreck in hedge fund land
01:04:02 - How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses?
01:08:25 - The challenges of the industry
01:14:21 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GAL05: Pumping the BRICS Agenda & Hidden Risks ft. Nelson Rangel
In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Nelson on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:32 - Introduction to Nelson Rangel
08:09 - Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory
12:29 - A look around the globe
17:37 - Reflecting on the U.S debt
21:17 - How is the next decade unfolding for China?
25:29 - The BRICs taking over the monetary system
30:38 - Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?
34:58 - Being adaptable to new scenarios
39:26 - Advice for investing in South America
48:14 - News about UAPs (UFOs)
56:24 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI259: Trend Following & the New Normal ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:43 - Industry performance update
06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems
13:54 - Taking the bonds out?
16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters
19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?
23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy
26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?
32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?
36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?
37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?
40:32 - Are there different types of crises?
45:55 - A global macro perspective
51:38 - Are bonds mispriced?
55:37 - From predictable to unpredictable inflation
59:11 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao
Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Chen on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?
06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?
11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?
16:44 - The outlook for inflation
19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?
26:07 - Rates going back to zero?
28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth
31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production
32:57 - China - a deflationary force
38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?
39:29 - Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?
42:07 - Have yields reached their peak?
42:54 - The situation in Europe
45:20 - Back to the 2010s?
46:36 - A global increase in spending?
47:37 - Concerns from a global risk perspective
51:00 - The Japanese economy
52:35 - The outlook for emerging markets
54:45 - Advice for other traders
55:59 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI258: Absolute Momentum in a Chaotic Environment ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan is back to discuss the lurking uncertainty in the economy and take a deep dive into absolute momentum. What is it, how is it used and how does it relate to trend following? How does complex systems really function and evolve over time and what role does correlation play in system design? And financial markets is in fact chaotic systems, then how do predictive modellers trade them? Is there an edge from price following techniques in their ability to trade in highly complex and sometimes chaotic environment? Why noise is not as random as it might occur, how risk should be calculated in complex systems and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - What has happened since last conversation?
08:04 - Industry perfomance update
14:08 - Q1, Correy: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, as most are, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes?
20:06 - A deep dive into absolute momentum
30:30 - Different implementations, same results
45:47 - The role of correlation
50:56 - Calculating risk in complicated systems
01:14:10 - The weakness of the Sharpe Ratio
01:21:04 - Know your manager well
01:24:19 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL20: How to Survive the Current Fourth Turning ft. Neil Howe
Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe
03:43 - What characterise each turning?
17:53 - A generation cliff
25:18 - The importance of the financial crisis in 2008
27:55 - Cycles are non linear
30:08 - Every crisis has a catalyst
35:56 - A polarised and divided world
41:29 - Can conflict bring us together?
48:30 - The outlook for war and conflict
52:12 - A millennial revolution
58:18 - Will boomers give up?
01:07:48 - How will society change?
01:19:57 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:56 - What has caught Cem's attention recently?
03:14 - Volatility and seasonal patterns
08:27 - Industry performance update
09:34 - Is vol trading predictable?
17:15 - Why are vol spikes becoming shorter?
20:19 - Cem's take on the fourth turning
33:12 - Why is demographics so critical today?
39:04 - A tug of war between flows and macro
50:28 - A new all time high for stocks?
52:07 - Major moves in markets
01:00:58 - Too bullish too soon?
01:03:03 - Be flexible, be water
01:06:07 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin
05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy
10:14 - Where is inflation heading?
16:24 - A wrong prediction?
20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?
24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?
27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?
31:32 - Challenges in the credit space
33:33 - The implications of high valuations
36:08 - Potential weaknesses in the system
40:45 - Looking outside of the U.S.
44:43 - The outlook for currencies
47:03 - Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China
49:43 - How is Asia holding up?
52:08 - Are we going to see changes in the inflation target?
56:21 - The big picture view over the next decade
58:23 - Advice for new investors
59:37 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI256: Investor Behaviour & the How to Deal with Transaction Costs ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski is back to tackle some important topics relating to systematic trading. We discuss whether there is a best time of the year to trade and what has been driving the markets recently, how high interest rates and uncertainty affect investor behaviour, dispersion within markets and how it influences your trend following return. We also discuss quant research, the motivated reasoning bias and the importance of being open minded as a researcher to find better ways of being a trend follower, ways of dealing with transaction costs when building models, optimal ways of performing backtests and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:38 - Is there a best time to trade?
05:07 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?
08:36 - Industry performance update
10:01 - Will we see a change in investor behaviour?
17:04 - The benefit of cash
21:11 - Are guaranteed products making a comeback?
26:18 - The dispersion within markets
32:05 - The Ex ante and Ex post problem for quant research
39:23 - Stay open minded
43:46 - Dealing with transaction costs
56:53 - The road to robust models
01:00:37 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL19: Revolutionary Technology & the Coming Economic Boom ft. Mark P. Mills
Mark Mills joins us to discuss his new book The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern’s engineering school and a strategic partner in energy-tech venture fund Montrose Lane. In our conversation Mark explains how advances on three fronts - information, machines and materials - are converging in a way that is going to propel a surge in economic growth and productivity.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Mark on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:12 - Introduction to Mark Mills and his book
10:00 - What is meant by "the cloud"?
15:46 - The Cloud Revolution
21:44 - Collecting data with AI
28:10 - What is computational material and how is it used?
36:05 - Designing material with AI
40:08 - Getting more out of technology
48:43 - Working with robots
52:21 - Increasing productivity in health care
57:55 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne
Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?
03:54 - The big macro picture
12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming
17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?
21:13 - A fear of Japanification
26:28 - Industry performance update
28:39 - A period of dispersion
33:36 - Calculating the return expectations
41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following
47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments
55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook
01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification
01:08:34 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GAL04: Expanding Your Consciousness and Reality ft. Mark Gober
Do you ever have that feeling someone is staring at you? You turn around and find someone looking at you. What causes that? We get the answer in this episode of our Galactic Macro series as we sit down with Mark Gober, author, and board director at Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell’s Institute of Noetic Sciences. Mark explains to us the science behind extra sensory perception, near death experiences, UAP and then shows the one thing they all have in common - consciousness, the ultimate technology. You won’t want to miss this fascinating conversation where we explore these new frontiers.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:36 - Introduction to Mark Gober
07:13 - Constructing a new reality
11:18 - Mark's journey with libertarianism
17:55 - Understanding consciousness
23:33 - Near death experiences and the science behind
27:14 - The shared death experiences
28:51 - What is terminal lucidity?
31:50 - The role of psychic abilities
38:42 - The road to studying UFOs
44:05 - UAP encounters are nothing new
49:23 - The Rendlesham Forest case
52:33 - Where is this all going?
56:55 - Who is Robert Bigelow?
01:00:45 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital
Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.
Episode Timestamps:
02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital
07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings
12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy
17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering
22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program
26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters
32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe?
39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process
44:41 - The challenges of working with clients
48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower?
54:21 - Can you be a good manager without using stops?
57:05 - Why are the other firms "wrong"?
01:04:33 - Trend following disagreements
01:06:42 - Excitements for the future
01:08:23 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas
Nick Baltas returns to discuss single stock trend momentum dynamics and more. With his usual academic elegance, Nick dives into Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Static vs. Dynamic positioning, how to apply each type in your trading, and why one is not “better” than the other, the key factors of portfolio construction and why the difference between cross-sectional and time-series momentum is important to understand. We also discuss trend following in single stocks and why it is a complicated matter, single stock factors trend as well CTA strategies inside ETF wrappers...the pros and cons and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:36 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?
06:28 - Industry performance update
07:28 - Dynamic vs. Static positioning
17:54 - Is one better than the other?
22:35 - The objective of Dynamic positioning
29:35 - Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum: What Is the Difference?
43:57 - AQR paper on single stock factor trend
50:17 - CTA strategies inside and ETF wrapper...a good idea?
01:00:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO15: Exploring Today's Investment Opportunities ft. Christopher Zook
Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Christopher on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook
05:11 - Zook's current view on the markets and economy
09:06 - The outlook for real estate
12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI
16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble?
18:45 - Options trading - a key driver of short term
21:35 - Building portfolios for the current environment
25:44 - Inflation, stocks and pricing power
28:14 - Opportunities in markets
30:50 - Investing in sports teams
38:54 - GP stakes and the asset management industry
45:40 - Bad actors in the industry
49:44 - 50 shades of risk
54:25 - Finding the right people to work with
57:40 - Lessons learned
59:17 - Finding the next big thing
01:02:49 - Working with Tony Robbins
01:04:30 - Advice for new investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately?
04:38 - Industry performance update
05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing
10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be?
13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from?
16:35 - The best approach to trading markets
23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks
27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading
30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase?
33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities?
40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets?
44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble?
46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees
52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees
54:26 - Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things?
01:08:52 - Tax efficiency in ETFs
01:12:24 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan
When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Paul on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan
13:58 - The current state of Syria
18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts
24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable?
27:13 - The challenges that China is facing
29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy?
32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing?
35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference
44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics
50:57 - The risk of complex technology
56:05 - How do we prepare our children to become great leaders?
01:03:07 - Expanding our intuition
01:07:58 - Hopes for the future and book recommendations
01:16:32 - Thanks for listening
01:17:01 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Update of the week
07:50 - Industry performance update
10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system?
18:52 - Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea?
28:16 - Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4?
34:13 - Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems
40:46 - Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what!
45:12 - Trading safely
52:22 - Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space
57:37 - Paper: A different point of skew
01:05:04 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL18: We Need to Talk About Inflation ft. Stephen King
HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book
09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money
13:21 - Can it be deflationary?
17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect
30:29 - The unfairness of inflation
37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?
46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation bias
51:04 - Is the radar still switched off?
52:49 - A collapse in money supply?
55:50 - Are central banks acting too slow?
58:31 - The current state of supply conditions
01:02:26 - The relationsship between demographics and inflation
01:05:57 - Building the ideal Fed
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI251: A Deep Dive Into Models and Systems ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan returns for a true trend following conversation where we dive deep into the construction of models and systems. We discuss why long-term trading are often preferred by many trend followers and what we can learn from acoustics and physics in terms of noise and signals, how to get the most diversification from highly correlated markets through system design and why you should trade with an ensemble of markets. We also discuss how complex adaptive systems evolve over time, how to understand transitions events and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - An update on the Australian economy
02:50 - A global macro perspective
05:38 - Industry performance update
08:39 - A bias towards long term models?
20:28 - Emergent structures and the butterfly effect
25:08 - Something is happening at the South Pole
26:01 - Getting diversification out of highly correlated markets
39:23 - Understanding complex adaptive systems
54:05 - The stability of markets
57:17 - Applying different rules to different markets
01:00:32 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave
05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?
10:40 - When is the recession coming?
13:13 - The outlook for inflation
18:36 - The problem with designification
21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy
27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?
31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China
36:12 - An epic boom in emerging markets
40:20 - The structural growth in China
43:28 - Middle East joining forces
46:53 - Dealing with the debt
50:43 - Inverted yield curve and the bond market
54:09 - How will AI affect the economy?
59:22 - Good advice and book recommendations
01:02:00 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI250: Tour de Volatility ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins me for a tour of the current volatility and macro environment, where we take a deep dive into where markets and economy are heading. We discuss the potential of the economy going into stagflation and why many investors might not be prepared for what is to come, the unpredictable volatility environment and how technology like AI is affecting markets. We also discuss the potential dangers of zero day options and how to position yourself appropriately for the markets, how to prepare for the upcoming summer holidays and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:45 - The global macro perspective
03:07 - Industry performance update
04:48 - Reviewing the first half of the year
09:14 - A deep dive into markets
24:37 - Preparing for a major blowup
39:24 - Zero day options - a loaded gun?
45:36 - Best Ever 1st half for NASDAQ
48:27 - Preparing for summer holidays
53:35 - Are CTAs and trend followers are pushing the markets higher?
56:43 - Advice when heading into holidays
58:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GAL02: The Blind Spot of AI & UAPs ft. Izabella Kaminska & Dario Garcia Garner
There are few instincts sharper than those of a talented journalist. Izabella Kaminska, founder and editor of The Blind Spot, and her colleague Dario Garcia Giner have those instincts in spades. While still at the Financial Times, on December 10, 2021, Izabella penned a thought provoking article titled Do portfolios have a UAP risk?. Long before anyone was talking about UAP in the financial sector Izabella recognized that this taboo subject could impact markets and was worth paying attention to. That article led to research analyst Dario Garcia Giner reaching out and joining Izabella at The Blind Spot where they continue their work uncovering interesting and important corners of markets that remain overlooked. Listen in as we discuss with Izabella and Dario their perspectives on UAP, geopolitics, and the complexity of understanding and managing risk in a sci-fi like world.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Izabella on Twitter.
Follow The Blind Spot.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:33 - What have UAPs even to do with finance?
09:26 - When will UAPs become a common risk disclosure?
15:59 - Who is Ryan Graves and why is he important?
19:15 - Their reaction to Politico article by Chris Mellon
26:20 - Classified information, lacking coverage and the Havana Syndrome
32:03 - A potential for geopolitical conflict
39:13 - The biggest underpriced risk in global markets
44:43 - Conspiracy theories and the weird factor
51:55 - Mass fragmentation and loss of trust in media
01:00:32 - What is happening at the South Pole?
01:06:56 - Inspiration and book recommendations
01:12:00 - Thanks for listening
01:12:39 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI249: Unfulfilled Expectations in 1st Half of 2023 ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins me to discuss momentum gap and why momentum is a core component of all markets, the concept of "stretch" and when to enter and exit trades at the right time, dislocations in markets and how AI may or may not affect the trend following space. We then review all the things we were "promised" would happen in the first half of 2023...but did not! And to round things off, we dive into what causes models to fail and why there are many ways to interpret the success of a model, the challenge of predicting markets and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What happened this week?
03:48 - Industry performance update
05:21 - Article on momentum gap
16:46 - Getting the entry and exit right
23:25 - What did not happen this year?
32:02 - AI and trend following
35:48 - Advice on using AI and machine learning
42:59 - Failure of models
52:19 - The challenge of evaluating models
56:28 - Being macro aware
01:00:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GAL01: Galactic Macro...The New Investment Frontier ft. Jay Anderson
2023 is a year for the record books as world changing technologies such as AI once believed to be science fiction become science fact. The most exotic technologies, however, are thought to be related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon and may also have an AI connection. At the vanguard of the new generation of UAP researchers is Jay Anderson. He kicks off our Galactic Macro series with David Dorr as they discuss the breathtaking disclosures coming out of the U.S. Pentagon and connect the dots to unraveling a mystery that may be as old as humanity itself. What will be revealed in the new physics displayed by UAP and documented by the world's best military signal intelligence systems? Has the U.S., Russia, China or anyone else made breakthroughs in physics that are not yet publicly known? Are we alone? The implications of what we discuss not only could impact every aspect of financial markets, they could impact every aspect of how we view our place in the universe.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Jay and Project Unity on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:08 - Introduction to Jay Andersen and Project Unity
08:50 - The tipping point
20:51 - An ever-changing phenomenon
29:29 - Increasing encounters - why now?
37:41 - The importance of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
42:25 - Evolving into a new human species
50:12 - Staying well prepared for new technology
55:30 - The Global Event Rating Algorithm
58:33 - An acclimation process
01:08:56 - How did Jay get into the UFO subject?
01:14:17 - Final thoughts?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI248: Trend Following, AI & Mastering Risk Management ft. Alan Dunne
Alan Dunne returns to the show following a busy week of Fed action and economic activity. We discuss how technology like artificial intelligence impacts the economy and investors, both currently and in the future, the use of machine learning trend following and why it is important to be aware of your own biases. We also discuss what constitutes good risk management and why risk management is key to any successful investor, the evolution of risk management and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:58 - The big macro picture
13:25 - Industry performance update
16:33 - Artificial Intelligence - friend or foe?
28:00 - Using AI in trend following
32:40 - Katy Kaminski paper on bonds
39:36 - Being aware of your own biases
44:49 - Quantica paper on protection and returns
48:35 - Transtrend paper - volatility vs. drawdowns
53:24 - Risk management - the secret sauce?
57:28 - The evolution of risk management
01:03:24 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM45: A Geopolitical Mosh Pit ft. Michael Kao
As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Michael on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - The big macro picture
14:09 - The debt problem in China
20:39 - The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict
24:57 - Kao's view on supply and demand
31:17 - How does Fed power affect oil?
38:41 - A complicated dynamic
41:54 - Can we actually trust anyone?
45:29 - The shadow banking system and refinancing risk
48:53 - A structural problem
51:59 - Reimagining safe assets
58:27 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI247: What is Smart Diversification? ft. Nick Baltas
Today, Nick Baltas return to the show for a look at some recent published research papers by our friends over at Quantica and AQR. Despite our technical difficulties with my audio and notes...we discuss the timing and speed of executing trades and the pros and cons of trend following compared to stocks and bonds, how to achieve the best protection whilst maximizing returns during times of trouble in equities or higher interest rates and why short term strategies does not necessarily give you better protection, nor better returns. We also discuss the similarities and differences between trend following and economic trend and the importance of luck, why you get what you pay for in terms of manager performance and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:10 - What happened this week?
03:24 - Industry performance update
05:07 - Q1, David: About the speed of execution
10:43 - Q2, Oliver: Trend following vs. stocks and bonds
16:08 - A discussion on smart diversification
22:21 - Shorter term strategies = more protection?
25:22 - The role of lookback
29:07 - Paper on economic trend
36:16 - Trend following vs. economic trend
45:18 - Withstanding the pain of long term trend following
54:16 - Capping equity exposure
56:08 - Is fee reduction alpha?
01:02:01 - Does CTA replication models = single manager risk?
01:04:04 - The problems with managed futures indexes
01:07:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz
Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Mika on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz
09:25 - Working with econophysics
10:52 - Finding the perfect size
12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing
13:19 - The macro perspective
16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve
18:46 - A changing environment
21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations
23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures
29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage
31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past?
33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased?
35:31 - How does cross margining work today?
36:51 - What happens with a large client trade?
38:59 - Dealing with regulations
42:51 - Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management?
45:48 - What if every bank had the same risk limits?
48:15 - Are the banks aware of network effects?
50:13 - Is the complex systems push overstated?
54:09 - An anomaly that could be exploited?
57:06 - A confused market
59:19 - The outlook for the term premia
01:01:10 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI246: The BIG CTA ETF Debate ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Tim Pickering for a heated debate on some of the most important changes that we are seeing in the CTA industry. We discuss how ETFs can be used in the CTA industry and the pros and cons of using indices to represent manager performance, why Tim and Andrew are fundamentally different in how they approach the way retail investors can access CTA strategies and how they disagree on the definition of "pure alpha", the use of replication strategies and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:50 - The macro perspective
03:56 - Industry performance update
06:17 - First CTA to launch a ETF
09:57 - The managed futures index - what and why?
17:40 - Tim's experience with indices
20:15 - Building an asset allocation bucket
22:36 - A discussion on alpha
30:58 - Getting exposure to CTA return streams
37:10 - Why Tim would avoid replication strategies
44:18 - The biggest positions drive performance?
51:45 - Are ETFs reliable?
55:47 - Getting the timing right
01:00:49 - A terrible product?
01:04:26 - Why did Tim's US ETF fail?
01:08:07 - What is alpha?
01:11:00 - Are lower fees better for investors?
01:12:14 - Getting the correlation right
01:13:21 - Question from Oliver
01:15:59 - Teasing the next debate
01:22:38 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO14: Investing for a Decade of Dispersion ft. Clint Stone
Today we are joined by Clint Stone SVP of Investments at the Larry H Miller Company to hear about running an endowment style investment approach at a family office. We discuss Clint’s approach to asset allocation which is focused on long term capital appreciation. A key pillar of the portfolio is a large allocation to private markets and we discuss the rationals for this. We delve into the foundation’s approach to portfolio construction, how to estimate the volatility of private markets exposures and discuss Clint’s belief that the volatility of a private market portfolio may even be lower than a corresponding public market portfolio. We also talk about the challenge of manager selection, what Clint looks for in managers and why he likes both market neutral long/short equity strategies and directional strategies like global macro and trend following in his absolute return portfolio.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Clint on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:48 - Introduction to Clint Stone
07:07 - Their approach to investment
12:12 - A challenging decade for equities?
15:06 - Stone's perspective on equity valuations
18:32 - Building a model and strategy
23:04 - Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio
30:52 - Getting the correlation right
34:14 - Correlation in economic downturns
39:04 - Building a multi-asset strategy
41:11 - Getting the speed right
44:39 - Stone's approach to trend following
46:34 - Evaluating managers vs. security analysis
49:05 - The search for capacity constraints
52:02 - The challenge of picking managers
53:41 - Working with real businesses
57:52 - What is a good investment process?
01:03:01 - Generalists vs. specialists
01:06:50 - Advice for new allocators
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI245: Which CTA Should You Buy ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is back to discuss the economic unpredictability that has defined this year so far and how Rob approaches backtesting his system, how to make a signal continuous in a discrete system and if there are ways to figuring out when is the right time to trend follow. We also unpack what Rob means by “you can’t eat sharpe ratio” and what he would change in his strategy if he had more resources available. We then turn to discuss the CTA industry and how to find out which CTA you should buy, why Niels is skeptical about predicting the performance of a strategy and why you need to know what you don’t know, the absurdity of the debt ceiling and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - Update from Rob
07:13 - Calculating slippage and "midprice"
12:41 - Industry performance update
15:26 - Q1, David: About continuous trading signal construction
20:49 - Hidden Markov models - What and why?
27:34 - Q2.1, Elie: Is there value in relative vol targeting for traders who can't take on leverage?
32:37 - Q2.2, Elie: About alternative ways of rebalancing signals
37:49 - Q3, QuantLurk: What would more resources do to your strategies?
42:41 - Which CTA should you buy?
49:12 - Can you really predict the performance of a strategy?
56:08 - You need to know what you don't know
58:36 - The U.S debt ceiling
01:03:09 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM43: On the Verge of Recession ft. David Rosenberg
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg
08:00 - Rosenberg's research process
11:56 - The importance of historical awareness
25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve
31:16 - Getting the timing right
43:54 - The longer term trajectory
52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels
57:12 - A shift in the political landscape
01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro
01:05:02 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU144: Turtle Trading 2.0? ft. Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors
Join us as we sit down with Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors, for an insightful conversation on the evolution of their trading methodology since the early days of the Turtle Program. Discover what sets them apart from competitors and the key factors they believe contribute to a successful CTA. Explore their use of algorithms to balance risk in a volatile market and how trading systems can adapt while staying true to their origins. Gain insights into their approach to managing current market volatility, distinguishing between trend following and momentum, building reliable systems, expanding their market portfolio, and much more. Don't miss this engaging discussion!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.
Episode Timestamps:
02:19 - Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors
07:30 - Their investment philosophy
10:30 - What differentiates them from their peers?
12:33 - The key to succes
14:06 - Their approach to open equity
17:22 - Staying true to trend following
20:13 - Improving the risk adjusted profile
23:15 - An evolving system
28:19 - Slow or fast?
30:44 - Being aware of volatility
32:44 - Trend following vs. momentum
37:19 - "The technical logic of the system"
40:05 - An adaptive process
43:58 - How they reach their goals
45:46 - Pros and cons of adding more markets
50:11 - How they manage risk
57:23 - How have markets changed over time?
01:00:03 - Trend following disagreements
01:03:53 - What is he excited for this year?
01:06:30 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI244: Trend Following - How to Hunt them & Select a Manager ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan returns to discuss the idea of applying trend following on a shorter term time frame and why this might not make sense, the most optimal solutions for selecting managers, how to best avoid selection bias in the process and why the validated track record of a fund manager is so important. We also discuss how the analogy of hunting on the savana can be applied to trend following and what a cheetah and a spider can teach us about hunting trends and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - Changes in the podcast format
01:30 - Review of the week
05:03 - Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems
12:48 - A deep dive into manager selection
28:37 - The optimal process and results
30:58 - Diversification in manager selection
33:51 - Hunting the trends
46:29 - The Knowledge Project
55:44 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM42: What's Coming for Oil, Gas, Gold & Metals ft. Adam Rozencwajg
If you're curious about the state of natural resources in today's market, this episode is for you. Our guest Adam Rozencwajg shares his insights on a wide range of topics when it comes to the global commodity markets. Discover why oil is struggling to surpass $80 despite the OIL Put, OPEC's surprise production cuts, and China's reopening. We also explore why US and European Nat Gas prices have yet to converge, and the outlook for Gold as it sits close to all-time highs. Finally, we discuss the future of base metals and what we can expect in the coming months. Don't miss out on this engaging episode!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - What has happened since our previous conversation?
06:03 - Making sense of the oil market
10:44 - Signs of a put on the oil market
16:38 - The situation with natural gas
25:13 - Has the gas situation been improved?
32:42 - Nuclear energy - is it a viable solution?
46:51 - The outlook for gold
52:51 - The mechanisms of the capital cycles
01:00:45 - The state of metals
01:04:18 - A metal crisis?
01:06:24 - Centralised commodities and rare earths
01:09:53 - Investing in rare earths
01:12:52 - Considerations for owning gold
01:16:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI243: Sell in May and Go Away...Really ft. Cem Karsan
Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:33 - What happened this week?
06:56 - Industry performance update
08:38 - An interesting inflection point
16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms
21:25 - Why are people short today?
25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?
30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?
36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings
39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing
44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May
49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?
52:22 - The debt problem
01:01:09 - A society in decline
01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold
01:05:42 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL17: The Dangers to Democracy ft. Martin Wolf
This episode features a discussion with Martin Wolf, the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator and “the world’s preeminent financial journalist”. Wolf’s new book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism explains why the marriage between democracy and capitalism is breaking down, not from external threats but from within. He expands on these internal threats during our conversation, which he believes have the potential to end US democracy in the coming years and in his book he outlines a range of critical reforms we can undertake to avoid this fate. You won't want to miss this thought-provoking conversation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Martin on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Martin Wolf
07:45 - Why do capitalism and democracy go so well together?
14:46 - The conflicts between capitalism and democracy
18:43 - Is the risk to democracy global?
23:15 - A changed view after the election?
27:29 - Making process in a divided country
35:00 - A sign of desperation
36:58 - Success takes small steps?
44:35 - The importance of local democracies
50:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?
10:59 - Industry performance update
14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?
19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour
25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness
30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets
34:31 - It takes two to crisis
39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?
41:56 - Is price all we need?
50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?
56:39 - Words of estimative probability
01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is
01:02:58 - Skew in trend following
01:05:38 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM41: Global Macro Face Off ft. Cem Karsan & Alfonso Peccatiello
If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alfonso on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - The big macro picture
04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective
14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?
18:23 - A sticky situation
21:53 - A wealth of trades?
26:58 - A secular reality
29:17 - The banking situation
35:16 - A build-up effect
38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?
41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects
46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan
54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage
01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities
01:13:41 - Where is the world heading?
01:17:57 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI241: Trend Following...The Perfect Risk Mitigation Strategy ft. Alan Dunne
Alan Dunne returns to the show for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current global macro environment and the challenges that markets are facing at the moment. We discuss how to approach the percentage allocation to Trend Following when reaching retirement age and the current drawdowns that we see in the trend space, how to use risk mitigation strategies to create a more robust portfolio and how pension funds might end up filling the entire trend following space. We also discuss how Alan would go about constructing an alternative investment portfolio, the outlook for trend following and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:32 - Broad macro observations
10:21 - Consumer confidence and political obstacles
14:44 - Looking towards China
18:53 - Trend following update
24:38 - Q1, Lawrence: What to do when approaching retirement drawdown?
29:53 - Q2, Lawrence: How can smaller investors benefit from allocating to CTAs
31:31 - A trend following rollercoaster
36:33 - Using risk mitigation strategies
45:52 - Risk mitigation in pension funds
50:57 - How to build an Alternative Portfolio?
01:00:06 - What does the future holds for trend following?
01:04:51 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM40: The Risk of Volatility Exploding...Soon ft. Cem Karsan
Join us for an enlightening conversation with Cem Karsan, where we dive deep into the state of the volatility markets and the risks that come with the current low volatility environment. We explore the lagging effects of FED actions and their impact on the markets, as well as the potential impact of inflation, the upcoming US election season, and the current US debt ceiling situation. Get ready for a thought-provoking discussion on the current state of the markets and the challenges facing investors today.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:08 - The big picture macro view
08:27 - Fed selling Puts and Calls
12:54 - The lag effect
20:31 - The impact of change in demographics
29:49 - The state of the markets - Recession inbound?
38:47 - Sticky CPI - What is causing it?
46:12 - Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?
49:41 - Are we looking at the right Asset Class?
52:26 - Is the equity rally about to end?
54:24 - The Unpinning of Volatility
57:40 - The coming Explosion of Volatility
01:01:44 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas
Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Looking back on the week
13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series
19:23 - The impact of the SVB event
23:02 - Industry performance update
24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends
35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following
40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?
43:28 - Defending trend following
54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts
57:06 - The trend following narrative
01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital
01:09:34 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK: Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics
- LINK: Time-Series Momentum: Is it there?
- LINK: Time Series Momentum & Volatility Scaling.pdf
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL16: False Narratives - A Path to a World of Conflict ft. Stephen Roach
Get ready for a thought-provoking conversation with Stephen Roach, former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley and current Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, as he delves into the deteriorating relationship between China and the US. With his new book "Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives", Stephen unravels the narratives that led to this new Cold War and provides a clear path towards interdependency and healthier economies. With his unique perspective and ability to reach policy makers on both sides, Stephen gives us an insight into the complexity of this relationship and how it can be mended. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:38 - Introduction to Stephen Roach
07:37 - Why are false narratives so prevalent?
12:52 - Stephen's favorite false narrative
17:07 - A dangerous narrative
22:02 - A political backstep?
28:00 - A lack of telecom infrastructure
29:58 - The false narratives of China
40:47 - The fear of containment
45:27 - Potential ways forward
49:15 - The bilateral investment treaty
55:54 - How has Stephen's ideas been received?
57:56 - Thanks for listening
59:13 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU143: How to stay Sharpe ft. Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management
Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Metori Capital Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management
04:08 - Their investment philosophy
09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe
18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program
21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations
24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe
27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters
30:18 - Their view on replication
32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers
35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets
39:30 - The risk of alternative markets
41:29 - Looking beyond China
42:18 - Incorporating ESGs with alternative markets
45:20 - Overcoming investors' trend following barriers
49:39 - The role of trend in a multi-asset portfolio
53:47 - Are risk mitigation strategies going out of fashion?
55:49 - Too much money in trend following?
58:57 - Trend following disagreements
01:00:56 - Expectations for 2023
01:02:55 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI239: CTAs Profits from Food Crisis...True or False? ft. Andrew Beer
Join us for a riveting conversation with Andrew Beer, where we dive deep into the world of systematic trend following, CTA Replication, and much more. As we explore the current state of central banks, we uncover the challenges that come with investing during periods when yields rise. Andrew shares his insights on why the language used in portfolio management can be misleading and what happens when we can't rely on banks being safe. Then we get into what has been going on in the world of CTA Replication and why Andrew is surprised by the DrawDowns that his fund has experienced in recent months. Finally, we debunk false narratives surrounding hedge funds profiting from the food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and discuss the demonization of capitalism. Don't miss out on this captivating episode!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:41 - What happened this week?
11:46 - Industry performance update
13:57 - Replication - reasons for concern?
16:58 - Why the current drawdown exceeds that of the benchmark?
23:51 - The challenge of making money when yields rise
32:27 - Do Replication funds really out-perform over time?
40:56 - The challenges of picking a single manager
47:51 - Should you make changes to your model?
53:29 - Gaurdian article on CTAs role in food crisis
01:03:12 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM39: The Secrets of a Natural Resource Speculator ft. Rick Rule
Join us for an insightful and personal conversation with Rick Rule, a renowned investor and speculator with decades of experience in sub $1,000,000,000 market capitalisation public and private issuers in natural resource industries. With a track record of structuring and leading numerous debt and equity issuances for resource companies worldwide, Mr. Rule shares his expertise on navigating the complexities of this unique market. As a sought-after speaker at investment conferences, he offers valuable insights into the natural resource industry's future and how to make informed investment decisions. In this episode, Mr. Rule discusses his personal investment philosophy as well as some of the wildest speculations that he has done in his career. Tune in for an engaging conversation with one of the industry's top experts.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Rick on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:41 - Introduction to Rick Rule
04:16 - Financial experimentation and taking bets
16:35 - Commodities and the state of the economy
28:37 - Themes in resourcable markets
30:47 - Inflation - a political phenomenon?
38:57 - Are we seeing a change in ESGs?
44:26 - The pushback by the lower class
49:48 - Is owning gold becoming pointless?
56:14 - Central banks buying - a sign of demand?
01:00:40 - Finding convex ways to invest in gold
01:06:49 - Too much hype in the narrative?
01:11:57 - Being a contrarian
01:14:15 - Learn more about Rick and his work
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU142: The Contrarian ft. Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management
Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management
03:46 - Their investment philosophy
10:00 - A period of challenges
13:26 - Believing in change
15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?
23:02 - Looking back in time
30:42 - The role of short-term trading
38:56 - What drives short-term trading?
42:47 - Being smart with execution
46:09 - Dealing with the downsides
53:53 - Studying the markets
55:49 - The dangers of machine learning
58:41 - Capacity and liquidity in short-term strategies
01:05:33 - Short-term trading disagreements
01:08:00 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver
Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:40 - What happened since last time?
09:42 - Industry performance update
10:38 - Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?
13:28 - Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?
20:49 - Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend?
25:41 - Libor Futures being replaced
30:41 - Blogpost about estimating standard deviation
38:01 - Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction
43:37 - Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging
56:22 - Reasons Not to trend follow
01:09:50 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM38: Debt, Stagnation and Policy Responses ft. Barry Eichengreen
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Barry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen
08:17 - A potential misuse of history
11:26 - A lesson forgotten?
14:25 - Are things starting to break?
16:49 - A lesson learned
18:44 - Should we be concerned?
22:19 - Are crises inevitable?
24:32 - Is the dollar under threat?
30:10 - The need for safe assets
36:02 - The state of the Euro
39:39 - Making alliances
43:17 - A change in approach
45:18 - The "right" amount of debt
49:21 - A systemic problem
51:25 - Dealing with the debt burden
54:09 - Secular stagnation
55:48 - UK guilt yield levels
57:10 - Concerns for private sector debt
58:24 - Debt in the emerging world
01:00:45 - How and where to learn more?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU141: The Alternative Trendfollower ft. Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court
Join us for an in-depth conversation with Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court, as we explore their unique approach to managing $2 billion in assets using a systematic trend following program focused on alternative markets. Discover how they navigate the current macro environment by prioritizing skew over the traditional Sharpe ratio, their process for uncovering new markets, and their strategies for managing risk and uncertainty during times of crisis. We dive deep into their trend following implementation and why it's essential not to become a "backtest junkie." Plus, learn why they steer clear of having money inside of China, despite trading Chinese markets and how the location of their office has impacted their work. Don't miss this enlightening discussion with another industry leader in the CTA space.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Florin Court.
Episode Timestamps:
02:46 - Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach
03:54 - The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture
07:13 - Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?
15:55 - Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk
18:31 - Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times
22:27 - Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alpha
29:20 - Navigating Risks in Alternative Markets
33:39 - The Role of Macro Factors in Alternative Markets
36:41 - From Niche to Mainstream: The Rise of Alternative Markets
40:10 - Working with Trend Following: Tips and Best Practices
47:33 - Managing Risk: An Inside Look at Florin Court's Process
52:06 - The Importance of Macro Awareness in Trend Following
56:02 - ESGs and Investing: A New Frontier?
58:12 - Living the Abu Dhabi Lifestyle
01:01:26 - Factors Impacting Performance: A Closer Look
01:04:54 - The Art of Navigating Different Opinions
01:08:15 - Concerns & Opportunities in 2023: What to Watch Out For
01:11:13 - Thank You for Listening: Closing Remarks
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI237: Trend Following During March Madness ft. Richard Brennan
Join us for an eye-opening conversation with Richard Brennan, as we explore the world of trend following and delve deep into the unusual moves in fixed income markets and its impact on trend following performance during a month of March Madness. Discover how the design of trend following strategies allow it to be “prepared” for unforeseen events without overcomplicating the investment approach, and find out why choosing the right strategy and manager is all about personal preference. Rich reveals the secrets behind "the lifting power" of trend following and shares insights on how to determine the right amount of trend following allocation. Plus, gain valuable knowledge on the protective properties of trend following, the best ways to evaluate strategies, and the risks of being a replicator versus being a manager. Don't miss out on this enlightening episode!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:16 - What happened this week?
08:34 - Unusual moves
15:16 - Reviewing the March Madness
20:44 - Industry performance update
22:05 - Being prepared for unexpected events
27:17 - Keeping things simple
30:29 - Correlation in your portfolio
34:27 - Finding the right strategy and manager
38:11 - The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio
49:27 - Tail hedge vs trend following allocation
55:19 - Who's Sharpe should we be improving?
01:02:39 - The Pros and Cons of being a Replicator
01:12:15 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL15: Preparing for a De-Globalized World ft. Rana Foroohar
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book
11:42 - What will the new world bring?
17:01 - The problems with Big Food
21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn?
28:08 - A realistic solution?
31:14 - A passion for manufacturing
37:22 - The pendulum is swinging
38:47 - An era of Hyper Localization
42:05 - The power of Additive Manufacturing
45:20 - The role of Data & the Story of Audrey Tang
55:15 - The 100 homes project
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU140: Why Trend Following is Smart Diversification ft. Bruno Gmür, Founder of Quantica
Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Quantica Capital.
Episode Timestamps:
02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital
05:04 - Their investment philosophy
12:31 - What makes them unique?
17:09 - Reacting to trends
19:43 - Why not do it the easy way?
23:33 - Looking Sharpe
30:34 - When Correlations go to "1"
35:12 - Dealing with shocks
39:02 - The measurement methodologies
43:14 - The role of correlation
46:38 - Good research and potential pitfalls
53:09 - Important discoveries
55:26 - Making adjustments in a larger portfolio
59:11 - The time scale perspective
01:05:07 - The pros and cons of CTA replication
01:10:42 - Setting return expectations
01:14:14 - Trend following disagreements
01:15:45 - Expectations for 2023
01:19:22 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI236: New Opportunities in Volatility Trading ft. Cem Karsan
Join us for an insightful conversation with Cem Karsan as he sheds light on the current financial landscape, from the recent banking crashes to Central Bank Rate Hikes and Geo-Political developments. Discover the reasons behind the unprecedented moves in the volatility space and how they're impacting different strategies, including trend following. Cem shares his thoughts on the critical importance of positioning and why volatility strategies are currently facing tough times. We'll also delve into the potential consequences of a loss of confidence in central banks and their policies, including much higher bond yields. And don't miss our discussion on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election will impact economic policies in the months to come. Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the sharpest minds in finance.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:03 - Reflecting on the current bank crashes
06:03 - The difficult situation for Powell
09:38 - The geopolitical perspective
12:38 - Surprises in the OpEx
18:03 - Weekly update
20:24 - The volatility winter
27:05 - Vol strategies in the equity space
30:38 - How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment?
36:11 - Are vol strategies on a downfall?
44:15 - A loss of confidence in Central Banks
48:09 - What are the signs to look for?
50:55 - The U.S election...and how it will affect economic policies
54:11 - The U.S debt ceiling
58:36 - Gamma vs Vega
01:03:01 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL14: Is India Broken? - The Dangerous Equilibrium of Indian Society ft. Ashoka Mody
This is an episode for those who want to hear an alternative view of the world's largest country. McKinsey has said we are living in the “Indian Century”. Morgan Stanley believes 20 percent of global growth in the next decade will come from India. Our guest today, Princeton economist Ashoka Mody, has a different view, which he details in his new book: “India Is Broken”. He argues that there are two Indias, a successful, highly skilled and educated elite and a billion-plus population that remains very poor. Mody believes that this dangerous equilibrium is maintained by a close link between the government, big business and, in some cases, organized crime. This association produces projects that attract capital and headlines but leaves an employment deficit of over 100 million jobs.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Ashoka on Twitter & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
04:14 - Introduction to Ashoka Mody
10:19 - The development path of East Asia
14:41 - The path that India did not take
19:32 - The path they did take
23:37 - Different versions of India
30:37 - What is Hindutva?
34:09 - The Guljurat model of development
39:34 - A corrupted government
46:17 - Finding the accurate data
51:45 - Press freedom in India
54:37 - India - the new China?
56:53 - Building a better India
01:02:23 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU139: The Benefits of Alternative Markets ft. Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton
Today, we are joined by Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton for a conversation on how they use quantitative investment strategies and statistical research to generate alpha. We discuss how the characterization of Crisis Alpha has the potential to be misleading and why the speed of your trading should be determined by your objective, their process of discovering new ideas through research and the pitfalls of relying too heavily on automation. We also discuss how they stay diversified through alternative market selection, why it is important to look beyond volatility when assessing risk and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Winton Group.
Episode Timestamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Winton
05:05 - Their investment philosophy
09:25 - Where does opportunities arise?
10:18 - What caused them to reduce emphasis on Trend a few years ago?
13:48 - Too concerned about Sharpe?
16:39 - The value of Crisis Alpha
20:09 - Changing the trend following narrative
22:41 - What about the non-trend?
25:22 - Need for speed?
27:49 - Their research process
31:19 - Accessing big events in markets
35:00 - The pros and cons of machine learning
38:16 - Trading and selecting parameters
42:23 - The risks of CTA replication
44:57 - More markets = better?
50:09 - Staying balanced
52:23 - The strategies in a broader perspective
54:18 - Working with clients
55:22 - Their approach to risk manangement
01:00:18 - The worst possible scenario
01:01:24 - Preparing for the worst?
01:02:37 - Question about capping the ability to go long stocks
01:03:59 - How many trend followers do you need?
01:05:14 - Setting return expectations
01:07:33 - Trend following disagreements
01:11:05 - Expectations for 2023
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI235: Trend Following's Reaction to SVB Collapse ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky is back with us, following a tense week with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other bank emergencies. We discuss how we are in a period that Mark calls “the great bond reprising” and what this means for the economy, why the collapse of SVB was somehow "expected", if only regulators had been looking at the right data and how you build models that are well prepared for unexpected events. We also discuss why the core concept of CTA replication in itself may be problematic and why the collapse of SVB might indicate that some people possess too much power, how the wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, how change and uncertainty in the world affects investors and the economy and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:00 - What really happened this week?
19:19 - Industry performance update
25:21 - A tough week for trend
36:13 - Looking through the rear view mirror
46:25 - SVB and trend following
52:47 - The dynamics of the financial world
59:20 - A changing world
01:09:27 - Reflecting on the CTA series
01:13:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM37: SPR - The Federal Reserve of Oil ft. Rory Johnston
Today we are re-joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We cover the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) that has been actively deployed by the Biden administration over the past year, its implementation and potential impact on related economies. To what extent can the SPR influence spot and futures prices, and what are the knock on effects on refined products? What is the interaction between the SPR, commercial inventories and prices? Rory also discusses the analogy between SPR sales and Fed policy, as it influences the yield curve. We also discuss the relationship between oil volatility and the crack spread, and how volatility is generally damaging but can boost profits in proprietary oil trading books. Finally, Rory challenges the assertion that speculators are the "smart money" in energy, and how positioning can act as a counter trend indicator.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Rory on Twitter
Episode TimeStamps:
03:19 - SPR - What and why?
06:27 - Why crude and not refined products?
09:34 - How is the SPR used?
13:54 - Trading oil
19:54 - The goal of the SPR market
23:04 - How inventory drives oil price
28:29 - The effect of inventory restocking
29:43 - Theory vs. practice
33:28 - The mega energy companies
36:00 - Distortion in oil markets
41:20 - Can volatility be profitable?
47:35 - No specs = steeper or flatter?
50:11 - Advice on using the data
52:37 - Understanding signals in the oil market
59:17 - Dollar Wrecking Barrell
01:01:44 - Oil vs. gold and gas
01:09:07 - What makes money in high vol regimes?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU138: Need for Speed in Trendfollowing ft. Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager at PIMCO
Today, we are joined by Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager within the Quantitative Strategies group at PIMCO, for a conversation how they manage 60 billion dollars through different quant strategies, of which app. $5bn is in Trend Following. We discuss their process of constructing portfolios using a defensive approach and how they manage to simultaneously maintain a high Sharpe, keep a balance between long and short trades and how they use tail "hedging" in their design of the strategy. We also discuss why they believe having a broad universe of markets is key and why they see a big potential in exotic markets, why they believe it is better to trade faster as a trend follower when markets are liquid enough, their process of measuring the expected returns and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about PIMCO
Episode Timestamps:
02:28 - Introduction to PIMCO
05:11 - Their investment philosophy
11:11 - Too concerned about the Sharpe?
14:53 - A different Speed of trend following
18:13 - Building a defence against equity drawdowns
22:32 - Balancing the opposing forces
25:45 - A different approach to volatility correlation?
27:06 - Using machine learning
28:04 - The role of bonds
31:34 - The larger portfolio perspective
33:07 - Their research process
36:53 - Number of markets
39:01 - Their view on CTA replication
42:10 - Need for speed?
44:28 - Different models for different markets?
45:50 - Hitting the gas?
48:02 - Cap the equities?
49:14 - Adding non-priced based signals
50:31 - How many strategies do you actually need?
51:17 - What is second best Tail Hedge?
52:15 - Framing the expected outcomes
54:04 - Their sense on liquidity
55:38 - Trend following disagreements
57:05 - Expectations for 2023
59:49 - Running trend following in a bond shop
01:01:29 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI234: Trend Followers are minnows, not whales ft. Rob Carver
Today, I'm joined by Rob Carver for the weekly trend following conversation, where we reflect on the takeaways from the CTA series and the performance of the year so far. We discuss parameter and markets selection through research and testing and why Rob dislikes stops in moving average systems, what happens if a brokerage firm fails. We also discuss why you have to be cautious when using dynamic position sizing and Rob’s advice for using backtesting, how articles from big financial media often creates a false or skewed narrative in the way they present data and information, why adding a lot of instruments to your portfolio is not as good an idea as it might seem. And finally we discuss Rob's latest article in the Financial Times and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA series
04:57 - Performance update
09:59 - Q1, Gene: Question about underfitting and overfitting
16:47 - Q2, James: What types of stops are commonly used in moving average systems?
18:49 - Q3, Chris: How far back do you go in backtesting?
22:20 - Q4.1, Kyle: What happens if an FCM goes belly up?
26:37 - Q4.2, Kyle: Questions regarding "Following the Trend" by Andreas Clenow
39:22 - Applying a commission rate for your backtest
44:22 - Q5.1, Matthijs: The optimal moment to roll a contract?
46:14 - Q5.2, Matthijs: View on adding a defensive strategy to a multi-strat CTA?
47:52 - Q5.3, Matthijs: Why limit trend following to a small part of your portfolio
49:35 - Rob's article in FT
58:27 - Investor survey from BNP with predictions for 2023
01:00:49 - Diversification across instruments
01:06:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM36: Galactic Macro, UFOs & Balloon Encounters ft. David Dorr
What are some of the key takeaways when you marry global financial markets with potentially extraterrestrial influences? Global Macro investor David Dorr, has taken on that conversation. As government and national security services have begun to declassify information around UFOs, David is exploring the edge of what people are starting to talk about but financial markets haven’t yet embraced. Energy, defense, travel, technology, are points of influence in this conversation. Then there’s what Lockheed Martin may be sitting on that could be a real game changer. David has been following this line of research for quite awhile and feels that things are just now starting to break loose. David Dorr is the Managing Principal at Dorr Asset Management SEZC and has more than 25 years experience in trading, global macroeconomics, risk management and trading technology.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:36 - Introduction to David
05:43 - A touchy subject
12:48 - The Tic Tac incident
19:37 - The Navy ships incident
24:17 - What is Area 51?
27:03 - What happened in Mosul, Iraq?
28:29 - The New York Times article
30:41 - Who is Bob Lazar and why is he important?
34:40 - Connections in the UFO network
38:40 - Alfred O'Donnell & EE&G
41:50 - Are they saving us from ourselves?
43:20 - From rockstar to UFO researcher
48:47 - The importance of Jay Stratton
51:58 - Whistleblower protection laws
55:04 - The Wilson Davis memo
57:18 - What about other parts of the world?
01:02:11 - What's up with the balloons
01:04:25 - Why is this happening now?
01:09:35 - The best piece of evidence?
01:11:57 - What are being impacted?
01:16:58 - What keeps David up at night?
01:19:03 - Why not?
01:21:10 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU137: A new approach to Entering Trends ft. David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners
Today, we are joined by David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners, for a conversation on how they use trend following to achieve a multi-billion dollar portfolio. We discuss how to become a better trend follower by understanding the weaknesses of the strategy and their approach to produce positive alpha, the challenge of timing trend following and how they focus on the conceptual trend without giving up the skew and how the "dark" 10-year period has affected their approach to volatility. We also discuss how they manage risk in an uncertain environment and the state of liquidity, whether trend following has a limit in terms of capacity and much more.
DG Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the FCA and only provides services to professional clients as defined under the FCA rules.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about DG Partners.
Episode Timestamps:
02:08 - Introduction to DG Partners
03:38 - Their road to trend following
12:13 - The weaknesses of trend following
16:00 - Too concerned about Sharpe?
19:10 - The dual mandate
22:51 - The trend following narrative
27:19 - Capturing the meat of trend following
30:24 - Need for speed?
38:13 - How many markets do they trade?
40:16 - Rethinking volatility?
43:01 - Their execution process
44:00 - Their view on CTA replication
47:39 - Risk management
51:36 - The state of liquidity
59:36 - The absence of pain
01:00:40 - Trend following in a broader portfolio
01:02:58 - Capacity in trend following
01:05:26 - Trend following disagreements
01:06:50 - Expectations for 2023
01:08:17 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI233: The Market Impact of CTAs & Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne
Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the broader perspective of the markets and the economy. We discuss how the unpredictablity of inflation and interest rates affect all parts of the economy and the transition from globalization to deglobalization, the size of the CTA and trend following industry and how articles on media like Bloomberg often creates a unrealistic narrative about CTAs through colorful headlines. We also discuss Why you should add trend following to your portfolio and How trend following is done, what we have learned from our recent conversations with the best CTA managers in the world and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:59 - Broad Macro observations
12:41 - How the economy responds to interest rates
17:03 - Moving in a new direction
20:54 - Reflecting on the month of February 2023
22:44 - Industry performance update
24:29 - Bloomberg article on CTAs impact on equity markets
31:41 - Colorful headlines
34:07 - Findings from Quantica paper on CTAs market footprint
43:45 - Why trend following & How to do it?
50:47 - Takeaways from the CTA series
01:02:51 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU136: Trend Following... C'est la vie ft. Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management
Today, we are joined by Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management (CFM), for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their investment strategy. We discuss their research on how trend following has performed historically and how they use the data in their trading and the role trend following play in their portfolio construction. We also discuss the right way of doing research when it comes to quant based strategies and how they differentiate themselves from other trend followers, how they keep risk stable and forecast gaps in markets, how you should use trend following in a multi-asset portfolio and how they estimate capacity, the risk of investing in a replicator strategy and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Capital Fund Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:05 - Introduction to Capital Fund Management
05:32 - Their investment philosophy
12:27 - Periods of under-performance
19:13 - Trend following - a small piece?
24:58 - Do Trend Followers have a dual mandate?
31:32 - Their research process
36:22 - Enhancing a trend program
37:46 - Using machine learning
40:47 - Different types of trend followers
46:56 - Controlling the risk
51:20 - Dealing with drawdowns
54:44 - Achieving convexity
57:03 - Looking in hindsight
00:58:26 - Addressing rebalancing, capacity and fees
01:05:38 - Trend following disagreements
01:08:29 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM35: The Drivers of the Commodity Markets ft. Nicky Ferguson
Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Nicky on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science
09:42 - The major players in the energy markets
12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial
18:43 - Forecasting the flow
25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas?
27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets
30:22 - Risk considerations
32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action
34:28 - Measuring demand
36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research
39:46 - Oil on water supply vs land supply
41:33 - The impact of the dollar changes
45:33 - Measuring expectations
48:00 - The state and future of Ferguson's business
53:49 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU135: Moving Beyond Pure Price Trends ft. Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management
Today, we are joined by Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management, for a conversation on how they use systematic tools like trend following, to take advantage of inefficiencies in markets. We discuss the pros and cons of risk premia strategies and how they manage to improve the Sharpe ratio while making sure the "dual" mandate is fulfilled, how they have moved beyond pure price trends as part of the evolution of their trend programs. We also discuss the process of building a trend following strategy and why they prefer to build models rather than mimic a strategy through linear regression, their approach to adding alternative markets to their portfolio, why they are always concerned about capacity and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about AQR Capital Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:50 - Introduction to AQR
04:12 - Their investment philosophy
08:47 - Risk premia strategies
11:55 - A historical perspective
13:55 - Too focused on Sharpe?
22:24 - Changing the narrative
30:41 - Being unconventional
35:13 - Getting comfortable with the data
39:22 - The future for economical trend following
42:55 - Their research process
47:05 - The managed futures space
48:39 - Pricing trend following
55:00 - The need for daily liquidity
57:32 - The portfolio construction process
01:00:12 - The pros and cons of replication
01:04:25 - Applying risk management
01:05:40 - Adding new markets
01:09:19 - The role of trend following
01:13:08 - Reaching the limit
01:16:05 - Trend following disagreements
01:17:52 - Expectations for 2023
01:19:47 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI232: Trend Following the Trend Followers ft. Nick Baltas
Today, Nick Baltas return to the show following a head scratching period for inflation and interest rates the past few weeks. We discuss the state of the environment for trend following and the best way to select a portfolio of markets to trade, the pros and cons of "trend following the trend followers". We also reflect on Katy Kaminski’s take on Crisis Alpha and discuss the evolution of trend following and how it changes the way strategies are designed, why being too concerned about the Sharpe may impact your performance in unexpected ways and why it is important to be aware of your own biases and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - Market recap
04:21 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA Series
09:10 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?
13:17 - Industry performance update
15:53 - Q1, Adam: Regarding applying systems to markets
23:41 - Q2, Tim: Thought on trend following the trend followers?
30:39 - Q3, Tim: Nick's thoughts on tracking the AUM?
37:19 - Crisis alpha - lost in translation?
49:43 - How trend following has evolved
53:44 - Are we too concerned about the Sharpe?
58:55 - Changing the narrative
01:05:02 - Trend following disagreements
01:07:29 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU134: Crisis Alpha Revisited ft. Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group
Today, we are joined by Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, for a conversation on how they approach managed futures and trend following in their programs. We discuss how they work together with their clients to find the right solution for them and why it is important to understand the true meaning of Crisis Alpha, why commodities play a crucial role in times of crises and the key components of managing major disrupting events like COVID19. We also discuss why you might want an equity aware strategy, how they use machine learning to be more precise and prepared for moves in markets, how macro uncertainty impacts managed futures and trend following and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about AlphaSimplex Group.
Episode Timestamps:
02:01 - Introduction to AlphaSimplex Group
03:03 - Their Investment Philosophy
08:02 - Too concerned about Sharpe?
13:42 - How do you customize pure trend?
16:10 - Crisis Alpha - the true meaning explained
22:24 - The role of commodities in crises
26:22 - A need for speed?
32:20 - Capping the equity beta
39:36 - Their approach to CTA replication
44:59 - Machine learning as a research tool
48:30 - Simple vs. sophisticated
50:02 - CTA style factors
56:16 - All about bonds?
59:00 - An uncertain world
01:02:38 - The signs of change
01:06:23 - Trend following disagreements
01:09:03 - Expectations for 2023
01:10:52 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU133: How to deliver Convexity ft. Nigol Koulajian & Mike Harris of Quest Partners
Today, we are joined by Nigol Koulajian and Mike Harris from Quest Partners, for a conversation on how they use a research driven, quantitative and systematic trading approach to generate alpha. We discuss how they generate convexity and why they have chosen to focus on short-term time frames, why they believe some investors have become too focused on Sharpe and how they use trend following and crowding in their process. We also discuss how they use an adaptive learning technique to understand markets whilst being aware of the dangers of machine learning, the power and importance of data and the potential risks of replicating managers, why liquidity is dynamic and very unpredictable and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Quest Partners.
Episode Timestamps:
02:08 - Introduction to Quest Partners
03:34 - Their investment philosophy
07:35 - A structural change in markets
15:04 - Too focused on Sharpe?
20:55 - Creating momentum
24:18 - A move toward multi-strat?
37:35 - Managing the crowd
39:13 - The persistency of market environments
41:45 - A type of machine learning?
44:12 - The source of opportunities
48:34 - The "D" word
53:30 - Thoughts on CTA replication
01:00:12 - Being a short term manager
01:02:30 - Liquidity issues and changes in markets
01:09:15 - Trend following disagreements
01:12:46 - Expectations for 2023
01:14:15 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI231: The Perfect Fit for Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us to reflect on the learnings so far from the new CTA series. We also discuss how to set your stop loss when entering a new position and why you should not allow your trend models to go "backwards", how to fit your model to price data and why it is important to understand the signal to noise ratio in your trading to avoid overfitting. Additionally, we discuss how random entries can work for your models, but why they are not truely random and the challenge of separating luck from real signal, why it is preferable to have an under-fit model as opposed to an over-fit model when developing a trend following system and how to reduce your chances of having an overfit solution. We round off our conversation discussing why trend following is not as easy as it might seem and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:17 - Reflecting on the CTA Series
09:55 - What happened this week?
12:42 - Q1, Jordan: Regarding setting stop loss when entering a position
15:39 - Q2, Mark: Entry lookback vs exit lookback?
19:23 - Signal to noise masterclass
36:03 - The Tom Basso experiment
46:34 - The challenges of creating models
52:40 - Avoiding overfit - Don't pick the "best" parameters
57:23 - Avoiding overfit - Apply the Golden Rules
01:00:19 - Using visual mapping
01:03:50 - Avoiding overfit - trade multiple markets
01:07:34 - Trend Following is not easy
01:14:04 - The January trend report
01:15:46 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU132: Trend Following Evolution ft. Ed Tricker, CIO of Quant Strategies at Graham Capital Management
Today, we are joined by Dr. Edward Tricker, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Strategies at Graham Capital Management, joined Top Traders Unplugged for a discussion on Graham's approach to quantitative macro investing. The discussion touches on a variety of interesting topics including the evolution of trend-following, diversification, portfolio optimization, and "crisis alpha." Dr. Tricker also discusses how Graham partners with investors to help them solve for their specific portfolio needs, as well as why collaboration is critical in his team’s research process and the firm's risk management philosophy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Graham Capital Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:16 - Introduction to Graham Capital Management
04:00 - Their investment philosophy
09:35 - The art of modelling
12:33 - Too concerned about Sharpe?
17:14 - Working together with clients
20:17 - The "real" objective
23:22 - Commodities - A saver in crises?
27:32 - What strategies to add in a 60/40?
32:54 - Their research process
37:28 - Evaluating managers and strategies
40:20 - Regime shifts and changes in markets
44:11 - Recalibrating parameter selection
48:34 - Their approach to look-back and signal generation
54:01 - Static vs. dynamic position sizing
59:03 - Liquidity in markets
01:02:17 - Reacting to changes in markets
01:06:34 - Discretionary interventions in markets
01:10:14 - Trend following disagreements
01:11:35 - Expectations for 2023
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK: Can You Trend-Follow Trend-Following_July 2022.pdf
- LINK: Trend-Following - What's Luck Got to do with it June 2020.pdf
- LINK: Market Diversification_Graham Research_August 2017.pdf
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM34: When Geopolitics meets Global Macro ft. Jacob Shapiro & Roger Hirst
Today we are joined by Jacob Shapiro and Roger Hirst. Jacob is the Geopolitics Editor at financial media company Lykeion, co-author of a monthly research publication focused on the converging worlds of Geopolitics and Macro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, and Founder and Chief Strategist of the business and political risk consulting firm Perch Perspectives. Roger is the Macro Editor at financial media company Lykeion and the Managing Editor of Real Vision Creative Studios. Together they provide a powerhouse of insights into the machinations of geopolitics and macroeconomics. Key in this conversation are Jacob’s and Roger’s insights into China and whether China has the capacity to influence global growth going forward. In our conversation we explore the possibility and probability of deglobalization and what that might mean. In addition Roger and Jacob turn the spotlight on Latin America and the potential it holds given the current geopolitical and macroeconomic constraints the world is facing. Join us in this deep dive into what lies behind and beneath these pressing issues.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Roger on Twitter.
Follow Jacob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to Shapiro & Hirst
09:22 - Where lies the uncertainty?
11:01 - The ultimate impact on markets
15:32 - Reflecting on Peter Zeihan's work
25:17 - Can we rely on Chinese data?
34:34 - The problems with Chinese real-estate
36:56 - Xi Jinpings geopolitical ambitions
40:35 - Can China still influence global growth?
46:51 - The relationship between Russia and China
48:50 - Are we heading towards deglobalization?
54:19 - A disruption in global commodities
01:04:49 - A bad outlook for equities?
01:07:57 - Are we forgetting Latin America?
01:10:08 - A shift in equities?
01:12:18 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU131: How CTAs manage their Cash ft. Mike Kastner, Principle & Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management
Today, we are joined by Mike Kastner, Principle and Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management, for a conversation on how they use fixed income instruments to manage the cash of many CTA portfolios. We discuss how managers have evolved in terms of the way they manage cash, how Halyard Asset Management construct a portfolio from a liquidity point of view and the current state of liquidity, how they approach credit rating and why they avoid buying paper from certain banks. We also unpack what they think the sweet spot for foreign exchange hedging is and how they approach risk management, why Kastner does not believe we are approaching a recession and that there is a likely chance of a significant fall in the long bond price, as well as what Kastner believes will happen in the housing market and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Read more about Halyard Asset Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:40 - Introduction to Halyard Asset Management
04:12 - History of Cash Management
07:16 - What happened with money market funds?
09:34 - Has the Cash Management space changed?
11:02 - Cash Management philosophy
12:23 - A liquid portfolio
17:39 - Drawing the safety line
19:25 - Considering ESGs
21:11 - Managing cash in different currencies
22:41 - Balancing the mandates
23:52 - Managing risk
25:44 - Thinking about expected returns
27:05 - The evolution of fees
29:40 - Lessons learned
31:27 - How does Kastner see the world?
33:22 - Where are we heading?
37:00 - The global perspective
39:05 - The debt issue
41:30 - Why Cash Management is not Easy
43:00 - Expectations for 2023
45:59 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI130: Trend Following in the Age of Disconnect ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us at the end of another Fed driven week. We discuss the pros and cons of being a long term trend follower compared to a short term trend follower in terms of performance and Sharpe Ratio, and why you would want to apply the same rules to long and short sided trades, how to understand long and short term volatility, the advantages of being a systematic manager and the limits to how much AUM a manager can handle, how Rzepczynski will be focusing on change point detection in his next endevour and why it is important as a trend follower to think in terms of radical uncertainty or disequilibriums and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:20 - What happened this week?
11:01 - Individual Sharpe vs. portfolio Sharpe
18:59 - Industry performance update
19:56 - Q1, Pete: Same rules for longs and shorts - why?
32:25 - Q1 Follow-up: Change position right away or wait for first new trade entry?
36:09 - Q2, Callum: Question regarding TTU series with Ryan O'Grady
40:57 - Q3, Tim: Questions regarding link between Performance and AUM
50:21 - The problem with flat fees
55:06 - The idea of change point detection
01:00:18 - The age of disconnect
01:11:01 - The impact of disruptors
01:17:04 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU130: Trend Following Solutions ft. Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital
Today, we are joined by Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital, for a conversation on their systematic investment process, with a primary focus on research. We discuss why bias is a core element of Aspect Capitals investment philosophy, the essence of trend and why trend strategies work, as well as how they work together with their investors to create the most optimal portfolio for them. We also explore Lueck's analogy of trend as "medicine" and why it is important to give the medicine time to do its work. We continue with topics such as how trend following as a strategy has evolved over time and how they feel about the newest CTA replication products, their reasoning for being cautious about using machine learning and, why they chose not to dwell too much on fees, how they guide their clients when it comes to return expectations and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Aspect Capital
Episode Timestamps:
02:57 - Introduction to Aspect Capital
06:54 - Their Investment Philosophy
09:56 - Why does trend strategies work?
13:12 - A less uncertain period
15:44 - Too concerned about the sharpe?
20:38 - Which trends are most popular?
23:01 - Costumization - is there a limit?
28:58 - Staying diversified and improving models
34:33 - The research process
37:29 - A change in models?
40:15 - CTA Replication - good or bad idea?
46:01 - Their perspective on machine learning
49:33 - The risks of trend following
51:45 - Manipulated markets
53:04 - Their perspective on capacity and fees
56:26 - Setting expectations
59:05 - Simple vs. sophisticated
01:00:03 - Trend following disagreements
01:01:34 - Last words
01:04:01 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM33: Drilling into the Oil Market ft. Rory Johnston
Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Rory on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context
07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data?
09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless?
16:43 - Making assumptions
19:38 - The challenges with data
28:36 - Indicators of volatility
32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value
37:02 - Having an edge in oil
45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report
49:17 - Oil price - a play on the dollar?
52:27 - An indicator for the state of the world
57:06 - How are oil and natural gas related?
01:00:58 - Fertilizer's impact on natural gas
01:02:43 - The research perspective
01:04:32 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU129: Trend Following Nordic Style ft. Svante Bergström, CEO & Founding Partner of LYNX Asset Management
Today, we are joined by Svante Bergström, Founding Partner and CEO of Lynx Asset Management, for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their trading strategy, through the use of a multi-strat approach. We discuss why they believe trend following will continue to work for the next hundred years and how they ensure a good balance between achieving a high Sharpe while maintaining the trend following profile, what they have learned from 2022 and how they used diversifying models and machine learning to profit in 2022, their process of finding new models and replacing the ones that do not work and why they are sceptical about the returns from CTA replication. We also discuss the number of markets they prefer to trade, how they manage risk and what you should pay attention to when evaluating managers, their approach to capacity and fees and their process of finding new talent in the industry, how they implement ESGs in their work and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about LYNX
Episode Timestamps:
02:18 - Introduction to LYNX
04:11 - How did they settle on trend following?
09:08 - A painful ride?
11:09 - Too focused on sharpe?
14:04 - What stood out in 2022?
16:17 - The dual mandate
18:10 - The benefits of diversifying strategies
20:08 - Why machine learning?
24:31 - The flipside of diversifying strategies
28:32 - The process of replacing models
31:36 - Their view on CTA replication
35:54 - Execution within LYNX
38:15 - The right number of markets
41:10 - How they manage risk
46:02 - What makes a good manager?
51:11 - The issue with capacity
54:29 - Finding and hiring new talent
59:41 - Is Liquidity on a downfall?
01:01:51 - Managing cash
01:02:48 - Trend following disagreements
01:04:04 - Expectations for 2023
01:05:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI229: Managed Futures - The Ultimate Diversification Tool? ft. Andrew Beer
Today, Andrew Beer returns to the podcast for a conversation on Trend Following & Managed Futures more broadly, where we reflect on what happened in the first month of 2023 and the outlook for rest of the year. We also discuss why many investors started to panic in the last half of 2022 and why Managed Futures is such a powerful "companion" strategy, the recent change of sentiment to stocks and bonds and why we should sometimes just trust the evidence. We round things off with a deep dive into various ways to achieve optimal diversification and the value of trend following, why it is important to be tactical and put aside the idea of buying the dip, how narrative plays such a big role in the trend following space and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:11 - Reflecting on the month of January
06:36 - Performance of trend following this year so far
14:43 - Industry performance update
15:43 - Managed futures - the ultimate diversifier?
21:24 - Will stocks and bonds continue to move in tandem?
25:46 - Predictable diversification benefits
29:28 - The advantages of managers
41:40 - Why should managed futures work?
48:18 - Buy the dip?
54:31 - Sticking to the data
01:01:13 - Gunslingers in the ETF space
01:05:59 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU128: Trend Following for Life ft. Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management
Today, we are joined by Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management, for a conversation on how and why they have continued to focus on Trend Following as their core investment strategy. We discuss the challenges of improving upon trend following and if it's possible to deliver it with a high Sharpe Ratio, what differentiates DUNN Capital from other trend followers and how they use research to stay well prepared. We also dig into their approach to trading futures and determining trends and where they see the weaknesses of trend following strategies, why they choose to look at the overall portfolio when managing the risk and why they think portfolio replication can be problematic. We also discuss how they manage risk and why they prefer to reside in the medium to long term when it comes to trend following, how they approach capacity and fees and why they choose to trade using a human touch rather than automated execution, what returns are achievable from trend following and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about DUNN Capital Management
Episode Timestamps:
02:31 - Introduction to DUNN Capital Management
05:02 - Why Trend Following?
07:35 - What differentiates DUNN Capital Management?
12:06 - Hitting the right balance
14:34 - Reflecting on the performance in 2022
18:43 - The speed of systems
22:28 - Their research process
25:36 - Trading futures and determining trends
28:08 - Weaknesses of trend following
29:12 - From individual markets to portfolios
31:23 - What is the right number of markets?
34:24 - The risk of CTA replication
35:57 - Dynamic vs. static position sizing
39:38 - Primary focus when managing risk
41:29 - What is the right lookback period?
43:10 - Their approach to capacity and fees
47:15 - Is the HQ Location an issue?
48:53 - Monitoring trades
53:09 - The role of trend in larger portfolios
59:02 - The cash management process
01:03:44 - Questions to ask a manager as an allocator
01:05:55 - Expectations for 2023
01:07:46 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL13: A Biography of the Dollar ft. Perry Mehrling
Today, Perry Mehrling, Economist and internationally recognized expert on our monetary system, joins us to talk about his new book: “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System”. Perry’s book is a “biography of the dollar” told through the life “Charlie” Kindleberger, an economist who helped craft the Marshall Plan and spent his life studying and writing about the best way to organize international money. We discuss why Charlie thought the world needs a “key currency” and how the Fed - reluctantly and slowly - grew to support the dollar as it took on that role. Perry explains why the dollar system has proved so resilient. We finish the talk with an examination of two of the Fed’s most important tools - QE and swap lines and discuss why one supports the system while the other might undermine it.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Perry on Twitter & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:27 - Introduction to Perry Mehrling and Charles Kindleberger
10:03 - What is the Sterling System?
15:01 - Establishing a central bank
23:35 - The impact of World War 2
31:32 - What does it take to be a key currency country?
48:53 - Fed - From lender to dealer
54:49 - Are swap lines structured the right way?
01:01:14 - War in Ukraine - what would Charlie have thought?
01:04:25 - Book recommendations
01:07:43 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU127: Trend Following L.A. Style ft. Ryan O' Grady, Co-Founder & CEO at ROW Asset Management
Today, we are joined by Ryan O’ Grady, CEO and Co-Founder of ROW Asset Management, for a conversation on their all-weather, multi-strat approach to investing. We discuss the philosophy behind their trading strategy and why they choose to think holistically, why limiting yourself to trend following is a disadvantage and how they balance between simplicity and complexity in their research process, what they believe is the right number of markets to trade and how they diversify their portfolio. We also discuss what the pros and cons of replication are and how their work sets them apart from other trend followers, how they manage risk and mitigate drawdowns, how they succeed to run a multi asset portfolio and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Row Asset Management
Episode Timestamps:
02:23 - Introduction to ROW Asset Management
05:18 - Their investment philosophy and objective
11:43 - Should we worry about our sharpe?
16:31 - What to expect from pure trend
20:04 - Their research process
24:00 - Making changes to the system
26:40 - Their thoughts on machine learning
28:53 - New areas for research
30:52 - How many markets should you trade?
35:18 - Their thoughts on replication
38:49 - The risk of replication
42:02 - Managing drawdowns
45:16 - How they use trend following
46:46 - Managing risk in their portfolio
50:21 - Talking fees and capacity
01:00:17 - Running a multi asset portfolio
01:05:24 - Disagreements in trend following
01:07:54 - Expectations for 2023
01:11:53 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI228: Are Markets Priced for Perfection? ft. Alan Dunne
Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current macro environment and how it impact markets. We discuss how the apparent positivity in the markets might get derailed by the lack of cooperation from policy makers and how a lurking uncertainty is threatening the calmness of the markets, the performance of the CTA industry, which markets are the best to trade and how the speed of your trend system affects the outcome, how CTAs capitalize on people’s behavioural biases and what the conversations in the new TTU mini series have taught us so far. We also discuss the advantages of being a multi manager and whether managers should give the investors multiple choices or do the choosing themselves and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:16 - The current macro picture
15:56 - Trend following update
18:04 - Current markets and asset allocation
28:07 - Papers on the CTA industry
38:15 - Fast vs. slow trend systems
42:32 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA mini series
49:12 - The multi-manager perspective
56:42 - Feedback on the TTU CTA Mini series
59:07 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU126: Trend Following + Something ft. Kevin Cole, CEO & CIO at Campbell & Co.
Today, we are joined by Kevin Cole, CEO and CIO at Campbell & Co, for a conversation on their approach to using trend following in their trading, with a focus on absolute return. We discuss their investment philosophy and the evolution of their expanded trading strategy, how they moved beyond pure trend using equities and how they use a multi-strat approach to stay diversified. We also discuss how they feel about being replicated and how they use their research process to keep an edge over their competitors, how they capture the underlying momentum factors of trend and how they implement ESG in their trading strategy. Lastly, we discuss how they approach risk management and position sizing, their view on capacity and fees in the industry and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Campbell
Episode Timestamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Campbell & Co
03:53 - Their investment philosophy
06:07 - The objectives of their work
08:37 - Moving beyond trend following
12:27 - Their approach to trading equities
15:11 - Staying diversified
19:59 - Using constraints
21:54 - Thoughts on replication
26:45 - What is a good research process?
31:46 - Balancing the adaptability
36:23 - Trading more markets = better?
41:47 - Dealing with ESGs
47:02 - Their risk management process
51:46 - Being discrete
56:19 - Static or dynamic position size?
59:35 - Capacity in the industry
01:04:27 - Advice on return expectations
01:07:11 - Vanilla vs. sophisticated trend follower
01:09:29 - Managing cash
01:11:07 - What do you disagree with the most?
01:12:07 - Expectations for 2023
01:12:57 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL12: How to Invest ft. David Rubenstein
Today, Kevin Coldiron is joined by the legendary David Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group, philanthropist, historian and more, for a conversation on what we can learn from his journey to become a billion dollar investor, based on his book, “How To Invest”. We discuss what Rubenstein learned from his work as a lawyer and what young, aspiring investors can learn from his book, why it is important to work with something you love to do and why investors are an important part of society. We also discuss how great results require great risk and how becoming a successful investor requires a balance between luck, skill and risk, how to evaluate successful firms like Carlyle Group and the role philanthropists play in society, the economic inequality in America and why taxing the wealth is not a way to solve it, why Rubenstein believes ESGs are here to stay and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow David on Twitter & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Introduction to David Rubinstein
07:02 - From lawyer to investor
11:48 - What inspired the book?
16:32 - Is capitalism going out of fashion?
18:43 - The path to becoming an investor
25:11 - Diversification vs concentration
30:07 - The bigger the better?
35:38 - Reasons to be cautious?
37:25 - Can you rely on philanthropists?
44:58 - Charity - a problem solver?
51:44 - Rubensteins approach to reading
54:49 - Baseball jargon
55:43 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU125: Trend Following vs Short Term ft. Michael Pomada, President & CEO at Crabel Capital Management
Today, we are joined by President and CEO of Crabel Capital Management, Michael Pomada, for a talk on their approach to trend following as well as short-term strategies. We discuss the trading philosophy behind Crabel Capital Management and why they choose to primarily be long vol, what role the Sharpe Ratio plays in their trading strategy and how they use data in their research process to understand markets, how being de-siloed helped them to make 2022 their best year in terms of research and how they create the most optimal work environment and culture for their team. How they utilize machine learning in their work and why they spend tens of millions of dollars on execution infra-structure, why they believe replication is like drugs and medication and why ESGs are important for them as a firm, how they manage drawdown control and mitigate risk. Lastly, we discuss why Pomada has found peace with fees going down and why being innovative is key in maintaining a solid income, why they are not concern about competition in the industry and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Crabel Capital Management
Episode Timestamps:
02:20 - Introduction to Crabel Capital Management
03:41 - The philosophy behind their work
08:46 - Their trading objectives
11:21 - Too concerned about the sharpe?
14:28 - Better alternatives to sharpe?
16:43 - Unearthing the anomalies
22:49 - Creating the perfect environment
26:34 - Machine Learning - a magical unicorn?
31:17 - Getting the execution right
35:01 - The feeling of being replicated
39:28 - Their approach to trading markets
42:55 - The ESGs?
47:43 - Managing risk
58:42 - Are fees on the rise?
01:03:44 - Getting the execution right
01:07:22 - The role of their product
01:10:51 - Which bucket do they belong to?
01:12:18 - Crazy times for liquidity
01:16:24 - Being controversial
01:20:14 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI227: Trend Following in an Uncertain World ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the new TopTradersUnplugged mini series and how the beginning of 2023 has been so far. We also take questions from listeners regarding backtesting methods and how Richard uses backtesting to manage risk, rather than predict expected returns. Additionally, we discuss why trend followers should be more aware of uncertainty and outliers, why Richard is a tail hunter and why he compares it to surfing, how Richard deals with change and the importance of understanding the natural cycle of transitions and stable regimes, complex adaptive systems, why everything ultimately moves towards an equilibrium condition where everything stops and how it can be corrected through math, the importance of understanding how a system operates before applying math and that everything is process driven, how Richard thinks of risk in an uncertain world and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:34 - Thoughts on new mini series
09:46 - Battleship still floating?
11:56 - Q1, Markus: Richard's biggest takeaways in his backtesting
18:12 - Q2, Tim: About inconsistencies in the selection process
31:27 - Uncertainty rather than certainty
49:38 - Why not focus on other trends?
56:44 - Outliers - features of liquid markets?
01:03:28 - Everything is a process
01:12:21 - Managing risk in an uncertain world
01:21:24 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU124: Trend Following with a Twist ft. Harold de Boer, Managing Director at Transtrend
Today, we are joined by Harold de Boer, Head of R&D and Managing Director at Transtrend, for a conversation on their unique approach to trend following. We discuss the investment philosophy at Transtrend and what makes them stand out against other investors, why markets trend and what history can teach us about trend following, how the war in Ukraine impacts markets and how Transtrend stays diversified. We also discuss why Transtrend has not deviated from trend and the importance of differentiating yourself, why de Boer believes computers have been become a disadvantage and why de Boer does not think trading more markets is always better. Lastly, we discuss Transtrend’s approach to pricing their work and why they think ESG’s have become a “strange thing”, what de Boer is most excited for in 2023 and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Transtrend
Episode Timestamps:
02:27 - Introduction to Transtrend
03:47 - The investment philosophy
17:55 - Being unconventional
21:27 - Pure trend following vs. Trend following plus
29:25 - What is the investment objective?
32:53 - Developing and evaluating systems
37:34 - Human + computer = better than computer?
40:34 - Weaknesses of CTA replication strategies
47:17 - Is trading more markets better?
51:54 - Managing risk and liquidity concerns
56:06 - Diversification strategies and fees
01:00:37 - The challenges of ESGs
01:05:43 - Taking the asset allocator perspective
01:08:49 - Is equity exposure better?
01:10:31 - What do you disagree with the most?
01:11:08 - Expectations for 2023
01:12:12 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM32: Commodity Super Cycle in Full Force ft. Jeff Currie
In this episode, Cem and Niels are joined by Jeff Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on the shifts in global natural resources that we are witnessing right now. We discuss how the focus on de-carbonization has impacted the economy and why the low income group is actually the key driver of inflation, why Currie believes markets are set up for a recession in 2023 and how the war in Ukraine causes disruptions in energy infrastructure. We also discuss why OPEC has risen to power again and what drives the oil prices, why we might run out of metals in the near future, why boycotting Russian oil is a climate paradox and what might be the solution to the energy crisis, how the underinvestment in carbon creates a ripple effect in multiple other sectors, why Currie believes renewable energy might not be the right solution to the energy crisis, how to profit from the commodity super cycle and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:35 - Introduction to Jeff Currie
04:18 - A new kind of inflation?
08:41 - Policy and what drives inflation
15:41 - The outlook for the demand side
22:45 - Short term position and the commodity space
28:11: - Disruptions in infrastructure
31:17 - The rise of OPEC
33:32 - Status on the strategic oil reserve
34:20 - Volatility in oil
39:45 - Are we running out of metal?
44:12 - The situation with gas
48:15 - What is the solution?
50:12 - Problems with agriculture
53:54 - Dealing with global warming
59:44 - Profiting from the commodity super cycle
01:01:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU123: Trend Following Master Class ft. Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL
In this first episode of the new mini series with the largest and most successful trend followers in the world, we are joined by Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL, for a conversation on how Man AHL uses trend following in their trading strategy. We discuss the philosophy behind their work and why they believe trend following is a great strategy, as well as what makes Man AHL stand out to investors and how they make trend following more digestible while maintaining "crisis alpha". We also discuss Korgaonkar’s view on CTA replication and their process of improving their trend following system and models, why having a good execution system is important for enabling different sources of alpha and why they use dynamic position sizing to maximize their returns, how they overcome periods of drawdowns and how you price your work as a CTA, how much you should allocate to trend and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Man AHL
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:22 - Introduction to Man AHL
03:45 - Their trading strategy
06:18 - Why does trend following work?
10:11 - A unique type of trend following?
15:46 - A trade-off in the objectives
19:14 - The effect of adding carry
21:13 - Picking from the strategy menu?
22:46 - Too much focus on Sharpe?
24:33 - Replication - yay or nay?
29:54 - Have the models become outdated?
35:55 - The importance of execution
39:06 - Dynamic vs static position sizing
44:24 - Overcoming drawdowns
48:42 - Discussion on capacity and fees
52:18 - How to think about expected returns
57:09 - Can you trend follow trend following?
58:50 - Managing the cash
01:00:21 - Disagreements in trend following
01:02:03 - Questions to ask as an allocator
01:03:49 - Expectations for 2023
01:05:51 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI226: Trend Following - the Do's & the Dont's ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver returns to the show for the first weekly trend following conversation in 2023, where we discuss the unusual situation with the vol market and how to use stops and moving average crossovers when entering and exiting trades, what it takes to run a trend following portfolio in 2023 and why it is not for everyone, how Kurtosis and skew is used in managed futures, Rob's process of picking parameters and why using a mixture parameter speed is the most optimal approach. We also discuss the U.S. debt ceiling and why it can become a potential problem, speed in trend following and why you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket, how much math you need to work in the financial markets and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - What happened since we last spoke?
09:58 - Industry performance update
12:49 - A1, Andrew: Use stop or wait for crossover?
18:41 - Q2, Joseph: Is running your own trend following portfolio reasonable in 2023?
22:58 - Q3, Bart: The importance of Kurtosis
26:53 - Q4, Ross: How to pick parameters?
41:22 - Defending optimization
43:32 - The U.S Debt ceiling
48:05 - The need for speed in trend following
56:16 - Optimal trend following with transaction cost
59:05 - How much Math is needed to be a Trend Follower?
01:04:12 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL11: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise ft. Susan Shirk
Today, Susan Shirk, Professor and expert in the US/China relationship and Chinese politics, joins us for a conversation on China’s rise to power, based on her new book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise”. We discuss Susan’s research process and what laid the foundation for the book, the evolution of the control regime in China and how China has been taking things too far, how corruption affects Chinese politics and how Xi Jinping’s attempt to purge the corruption has led to an over compliance and bandwagoning. We also discuss how China’s strict Covid19 policies has led to nationwide protests and major frustration in the population, how China derailed from its peaceful rise, how they may be able to get back on track and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Susan on Twitter & read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:31 - Introduction to Susan and her work
08:07 - What is the 21st Century China Center?
10:37 - Why did Susan write the book?
16:27 - How did the overreach begin?
24:58 - Purging a corrupt system
31:36 - Examples of derailed politics
37:25 - Dealing with Covid19 protests
45:02 - From peaceful to totalitarian
48:18 - Getting back to a peaceful rise
55:34 - Fear of going to back to China?
01:00:14 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU122: New Amazing CTA & Managed Futures Series
Today, Niels and Alan introduces the new, upcoming mini series that will focus on trend following and managed futures on a broad scale and provide access to the brightest minds within our industry. We set the stage by discussing what kind of year 2022 turned out to be for CTAs and how the idea for the mini series emerged, what we expect and hope to achieve from our conversations with these top-tier managers and some of the exciting topics that we will bring up in the new mini series. We will also take a look into 2023 and discuss our expectations for the year and what we are most excited for in the mini series.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:52 - Setting the stage
03:53 - The idea behind the miniseries
07:48 - What we hope to achieve
11:13 - What are our expectations?
14:43 - The topics that we will discuss
29:25 - When will they be published?
30:34 - What are we most excited for?
35:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO13: Building Resilient Portfolios with Alternatives ft. Dylan Grice
Today, we are joined by Dylan Grice, Co-Founder at Calderwood Capital, for a conversation on how he thinks about portfolio construction through focusing on alternative and niche investments. We discuss how Dylan and his team work and why they shy away from trying to predict the future, how they analyse the current economic situation and why he thinks what happens to inflation and interest rates the next few years is insignificant. We also discuss how they manage the risk of the strategies they are working with and how they build a solid return profile, approach manager selection, how you can avoid being seduced by managers through narratives and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Dylan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:17 - Introduction to Dylan Grice
08:37 - How does Calderwood Capital work?
20:47 - Macro, micro or mixing both?
25:54 - Signs of stress in the markets?
32:37 - Grice’s perspective on inflation and interest rates
36:19 - How do they construct their portfolios?
43:32 - The art of managing risk
48:45 - Building an all weather return profile
54:28 - Assessing the managers
01:01:26 - When things go wrong
01:03:16 - Advice for people working in similar fields
01:05:52 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI225: 2023...Another Great Year for Trend Following? (TTU Group Part 2)
Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for the second part of the year-end group conversation on trend following, leading up to the beginning of 2023. We discuss whether trading more markets is actually better for diversifying your portfolio and how to approach outliers, how fluctuations in interest rates affects volatility strategies and trend followers, both currently and historically. We also discuss whether artificial intelligence can be a viable tool for trading and whether liquidity is about to break, the outlook for 2023 and what the year might hold for trend followers and the economy, why you should expect the unexpected and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:19 - Diversification in trend following
17:48 - The impact of fluctuating interest rates
30:58 - Using AI in trading
41:46 - A discussion on liquidity
53:54 - A glimpse into 2023
01:05:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI224: 2022 the Perfect Year for Trend Followers? (TTU Group Part 1)
Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for a group conversation on trend following and Volatility, leading up to the end of 2022. We discuss the possibility that the carry regime has ended and why 2022 was such a great year for trend following, why “the grind” has been so influential this year and why volatility strategies has been performing different than expected, and how CTAs performance compares to bonds. We also discuss how the volatility market is changing in the coming years and why you need to be active with your hedges, what the TTU team has learned from 2022 and why you have to be open to imagine the unimaginable, what the future might hold for the Crypto space and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:14 - Q1, Zach: Have we seen the end of the carry regime? And what are the indicators?
14:16 - The perfect year for trend following?
25:52 - The wrong kind of volatility?
31:04 - Trend vs. Tail Hedge
43:04 - What is happening with volatility?
50:38 - What did we learn from the year 2022?
01:00:40 - The future of Crypto
01:11:37 - Coming up next week
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM31: The Art of Volatility Investing ft. Dave Dredge
Today, Dave Dredge, CIO at Convex Strategies, returns for a conversation on volatility investing and why he believes the 60/40 portfolio is wrong. We discuss why big pension funds have been suffering major losses and what Dave means by living in a “Sharpe World”, self-organized criticality and how Central Banks have been handling inflation, the relationship between volatility and liquidity and importance of understanding the timeframe that you are trading within. We also discuss how Dave uses asymmetry to stay prepared for the future and the pointlessness of forecasting, how constructing an investment portfolio is like a football match and how Dave’s racing car analogy can help you become a better investor, cheap vs. expensive volatility and the importance of convexity, what the future might hold for volatility and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Dave on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:00 - About Dave and his work
06:04 - Are big pension funds failing?
11:21 - A fragile world
19:54 - How Dave thinks about liquidity
25:20 - What does cheap actually mean?
34:23 - What might be next for volatility
41:43 - The next Korean ship builder?
46:19 - Is forecasting pointless?
51:00 - Improve your convexity = improve your life
59:37 - What is cheap today?
01:13:14 - Time for some outrageous predictions
01:18:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI223: 2022 an unusual year for Volatility ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us to reflect on a week with heavy Fed action and some of the myths surrounding the Fed. We discuss how the behaviour of the Fed impacts inflation and the importance of understanding seasonality, why the discussion between recession and no recession makes little sense and the what direction the markets are heading. We also discuss Cem’s approach to trading the current volatility compression and why 44% of the S&P options volume is in 0 DTE, the key takeaways from the year that has passed and the most surprising events of the year, how the world has changed over the years and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:57 - What happened this week?
11:34 - An interesting period for equities
22:33 - Industry performance update
24:39 - Does recession or no-recession even matter?
33:44 - How and when to short the S&P
39:10 - The Oil Put...
45:08 - Why has Gold disappointed?
47:47 - The rise of the 0DTE options
53:00 - Takeaways from 2022
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL10: Chip War (FT's Best Business Book 2022) ft. Chris Miller
Today, Chris Miller, Author and Associate Professor of International History, joins us for a fascinating conversation on microchip technology and its impact on modern day society, based on his book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology” - which just received the Financial Times Best Business Book of 2022 Award. We discuss why semiconductor chips are so important today and the complex manufactoring process behind them, the history and role of the very few companies that dominate the industry, the problems that the monopolistic situation causes but also the opportunities that it has created for technology. We also discuss the concerns that the technology has created in terms of espionage and digital warfare, why a deep integration between telecom systems might be a solution to the potential conflicts that the technology can cause, what might be able to disrupt the industry and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Chris on Twitter & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:37 - Introduction to Chris and his work
06:17 - About his research process
09:50 - Why are semiconductor chips so important?
14:39 - How did we end here?
18:24 - About ASML and their role
26:02 - How and why was TSMC founded?
37:44 - The battle between China and U.S.
47:47 - A potential for conflict
51:20 - Disruption ahead?
54:16 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI222: Trend Following vs Tail Hedging to Protect Your Portfolio ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins us for conversation on Trend Following with something for the both the individual everyday investor and the trend following nerds. We also catch up on this week's events which included news of the biggest one-week outflow of US Equity Mutual & ETF funds since April 2021 and the news that Blackstone will be limiting investor redemption's in one of their Real Estate funds. We discuss how Rob uses dynamic market selection to diversify his portfolio and how he plans out his trading year when it comes to deep dive analysis, how he implements and tests his continuous trend systems and if he believes in using tail protection strategies to manage risk. We also discuss how Rob implement his carry strategy, portfolio optimization and momentum factor investing, what the special Year-End Group episodes will bring and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:39 - What happened this week?
20:22 - Industry performance update
22:25 - Q1, Elie: Can you run a continous system without daily vol targeting? Can you calculate signal scaling with in-sample data? More info on the mean reversion system with a high sharpe?
34:42 - Q2, Matthijs: How does Rob think about protecting/diversifying his portfolio with tail protection strategies?
42:54 - Q3, Richard: Has Rob considered conditioning his carry forecasts based on asset class? Should I account for using the spread of nearest contract to nearest plus when calculating the raw carry forecast?
49:44 - AQR Paper on Portfolio Optimization
54:26 - Article from Alpha Architect on momentum...30 years after Jegadeesh and Titman’s seminal paper
01:00:56 - What is coming up in the special Year-End Group Episodes?
01:05:43 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM30: The Era of Weather Volatility ft. Shawn Hackett
Today, we are joined by Shawn Hackett, Founder of Hackett Financial Advisors, for a conversation on how changes in weather and weather volatility affects the economy and you as an investor. We discuss the role and state of agriculture and the impact of climate change, the mechanisms of the climate and why understanding the big picture of weather cycles is so important, how we are transitioning into a new weather cycle, what it means for the crop production and important indicators for predicting crop yields. We also discuss why Hackett view the value of commodities the same way he view the value of stocks and why being aware of where we are in the climate and economic cycles is critical, why long term planning is a key factor in managing risk, how to approach agriculture and commodities in general in your investment strategy and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Shawn on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:07 - The state of agriculture
10:10 - How Sunspots are affecting the earth?
15:22 - What drives the climate?
19:00 - Why are the winds over the Pacific so significant?
21:18 - The World is moving into a new phase
27:39 - Predicting the weather?
36:10 - Positioning risk and classification
44:56 - The impact of currencies
49:08 - Weather Volatility - good or bad?
50:41 - Assisting the farmers
55:15 - Investing in agriculture
01:01:36 - Great summary from Hackett
01:08:33 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI221: Will 2023 be another Trend Following Year? ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins me to reflect on the month of November and take a peek into 2023. We discuss the equity rally and what it means for the economy, both currently and historically, the cycle of bear markets and why the current period has been unusual. We also discuss the role of diversified managed futures, why short term traders are interesting in that context and how it compares to trend following, the expectations for 2023 and what environment we are heading into, the issues with public and private pension funds and what the future might hold, why having an active and adaptive strategy is becoming ever so more crucial and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:53 - Highlights from the week
10:30 - Industry performance update
17:41 - The equity (bear market) rally
31:25 - The impact of the inflation target
38:49 - Why are short term traders interesting?
49:24 - Looking into the crystal ball
01:00:53 - The end of an era
01:04:53 - How often do you need to rebalance?
01:07:55 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO12: How to Invest like a Private Bank ft. Shannon Saccocia
Today, we are joined by Shannon Saccocia, CIO at SVB Private, for a conversation on how portfolio management and manager selection is carried out at a private bank. We discuss how the current unstable environment has caused a change in investor behaviour and how technology has impacted the economy, what the next phase of investments looks like and how the economic landscape has changed as well as how SVB Private has adapted their asset allocation to the current crisis and the implications of going back to a low growth environment. We also discuss why managed futures is now worth considering, what defines a good team of managers and how to deal with behavioural bias in manager selection, where the IRA industry is heading and how it affects clients, advice to aspiring CIOs and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Shannon on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:15 - Introduction to Shannon and her work
10:37 - A change in behaviour?
19:12 - Moving beyond the three buckets
26:20 - A rough year
33:01 - Staying diversified
40:03 - Are Managed Futures becoming viable for Private Banks...again?
44:05 - Manager selection vs. asset allocation
50:26 - Dealing with behavioural bias
57:06 - Discussing the IRA industry
01:03:33 - Advice to aspiring CIOs
01:06:56 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI220: Is It Too Late for Trend Following? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, following the release of the minutes from the FED’s Open Market Committee in a week of thin liquidity. We discuss whether trend followers can make money going forward after a great year and if it is "too late" to allocate to trend following, the historical perspective of trend following and what we can expect going forward based on the latest analysis from AQR, and how the fast flow of information impacts trend following. We also discuss the importance of knowing when to quit and embezzlement in the crypto space, why trust is a key factor of trend following and why you should find out where liquidity is coming from. We finish discussing why it is important to be aware of how markets move through cycles, what it means if we are heading into a more deglobalized world and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:21 - What happened this week?
06:24 - Industry performance update
09:19 - Is it too late for trend following?
24:47 - The impact of fast information
30:59 - The human element of policy
38:36 - Quit vs. Grit
42:16 - Diving into the crypto world
50:50 - Mind your liquidity
56:17 - Periods, ages and regimes
59:40 - The end of Globalization & what this means?
01:03:12 - Being a data detective
01:06:01 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM29: What if the World isn't Ending? ft. Marko Papic
Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marko on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic
10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?
14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?
21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?
25:42 - What actually causes recessions?
32:33 - Using constraints based analysis
37:15 - What is the median voter theory?
40:33 - Are median voters controlled by media?
45:24 - The role of Bayesian analysis
53:02 - Papic’s take on spread trades
59:13 - Is the dollar overvalued?
01:03:46 - Predicting an invasion
01:09:20 - A strengthening of the Baltic states
01:17:08 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:52 - What happened this week?
07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve?
11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?
14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?
16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity
18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?
18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?
22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers
30:11 - Asset classes in secular inflation
38:15 - Change in volatility = change in trading strategy?
46:51 - The impact of low skew
57:30 - When are we coming back to normal?
01:02:05 - Liquidity and volatility in relation to bonds
01:08:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM28: Draught, Deflation, Default & Global Depression ft. Simon Hunt
Today, we are joined by Simon Hunt, who has decades of experience in the copper industry, for a conversation on the state of the global macro environment, both currently and in the years to come. We discuss climate change and the extreme implications it will have on our lives, how the current state of war will impact the economy and how we are on a path to very high inflation and interest rates. We also discuss why Hunt do not believe we are in a commodity super cycle and how he predicts the commodity market will perform the coming years, what keeps Hunt up at night and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Simon.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:58 - Introduction to Simon Hunt
06:30 - The process of Hunt’s work
13:12 - Hunt’s global macro view
20:52 - Are we approaching a 3rd World War?
27:56 - What will happen to interest rates?
29:43 - What about equities?
33:22 - Is it all about to crash?
34:33 - A commodity super cycle?
41:13 - The relationship between the different currencies
43:21 - How Hunt currently invest
45:12 - What keeps Hunt up at night?
46:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI218: Trend Following to the Rescue ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us for a very important conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the FTX crypto collapse and CPI melt-up. We discuss how the outlook of inflation is changing and how it impacts trends, how the concept of "pants size" relates to different lookback periods as well as stops and the importance of position sizing, the difference between different position sizing schemes and how to best utilize them. We also discuss the trading opportunities that the uncertainty of the current environment brings and how trend following is part of it, what drive trends and why trend following is an essential tool in diversifying your portfolio, how uncertainty in the markets causes a shift in trader behaviour and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:26 - What happened this week?
11:32 - Industry performance update
15:41 - Q1, Daniel: Tight or loose pants for different lookback periods
22:52 - Q2, Henrik: Trade-offs between different position sizing schemes
34:51 - Trading opportunities that uncertainty brings
48:02 - Why is trend following so great in times of uncertainty?
01:17:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU121: Trend Following... from Optional to Essential ft. Nick Baltas
Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment space, the capacity constraints for CTAs and the impact of costs. We also discuss how big an impact the trend following community has on the markets and the strength and weaknesses of different alternative markets, selective hedging and how skew can be used as a predictor of future returns. Lastly, we discuss the challenging environment of 2022 and why Trend is performing so well this year, why Trend Following is becoming an essential part of every portfolio and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:16 - Introduction to Nick Baltas
05:59 - Baltas’ findings from comparing different systematic trading strategies
12:10 - Is the CTA industry too small to have an impact?
16:44 - Blame it on the trend following people
21:42 - Baltas’ research on capacity
30:03 - The impact of trend
37:54 - Pros and cons between different alternative markets
46:10 - Using skew in your strategy
52:57 - Nick's article in Financial Times
01:05:47 - Is Trend Following becoming Essential for all investors?
01:11:55 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI217: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Allocation ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we also address this week's press conference held by Chairman Powell. We discuss the most optimal time period for trend following and how trend following differ from short-term trading. Then we explain the challenges in the UCITS space and how regulation affects these products, and why it is important to correctly distinguish asset classes and trading strategies from each other. We also discuss Rob’s approach to building mean reversion systems, the importance of analyzing trading costs and if it is worth learning how to trade futures, if you have a small account. Lastly, we discuss hedge fund replication and how Rob approaches it, and how to decide, how much you should allocate to Trend Following and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:58 - The biggest takeaways from the week?
11:36 - Industry performance update
13:27 - Status on Rob’s book
14:38 - Q1, Simon: What is the shortest term that Rob has looked at in trend following / momentum?
25:26 - Q2, Matthew: Relationship between UCITS funds's lower vol and Trend Following allocation? & Advice for small investors
32:20 - Comment, Mark: Confusing asset classes and trading strategies
39:22 - Q3, Toby: About building mean reversing systems
40:58 - Q4, Zach: How to approach holding periods and rolling costs?
43:22 - Q5, Anis: Cash equities vs. futures for trend following?
46.29 - Rob’s take on hedge fund replication
01:00:18 - Trend Following - How much is enough?
01:06:42 - Announcement
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM27: Central Banks were Warned about their Failed Policies ft. William White
Today, we are joined by William White, Economist, Policy Advisor and Policy Maker who worked at the OECD, BIS & Bank of Canada, for a conversation on monetary policy and how it can negatively impact the economy. We discuss the unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policies, what has caused the current rebound in inflation and why we have gone from price stability to specific inflation rate targeting. We also discuss how Central Banks have handled inflation and supply shocks, both historically and recently, through monetary policies, how the current debt problem poses a threat to the economy and how it might be solved, the psychological perspective behind economical theory and why the financial conditions might have been too easy, financial and physical dominance and why they are not good for a non inflationary future. Lastly, we discuss the crisis from a European perspective, why the Dollar might not be stable in a future crisis and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow William White.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:12 - Introduction to William White
04:38 - Discussing White’s paper about monetary policies
10:32 - What has driven the inflation to this point?
23:05 - Inflation targeting - a great succes?
33:18 - Are we seeing the right policy?
40:33 - The debt problem
52:24 - Has central bank credibility been undermined?
58:18 - Seduced by their own billions
01:03:33 - A weaponization of the dollar
01:10:12 - What about Europe?
01:19:03 - White’s recommendations for aspiring economists
01:24:39 - Key takeaways from Niels
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI216: A New Era for Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful week, with Elon Musk taking over Twitter, the META stock taking a big hit and much more. We discuss how to approach asset allocation when adding trend following to your portfolio, how to find the optimal allocation and why Trend Following is often the most consistent part of the portfolio. We also discuss why it is important to think about forward looking risks and the idea that we are moving into a new era and regime, the unpredictability of the current inflation and why the rule-based strategies will have the upper hand as well as reflecting on next week’s episode with William White and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:58 - Summary of the week
07:51 - Industry performance update
15:38 - The optimal allocation
24:42 - Trend Following is the most consistent part of the Portfolio?
37:22 - Are we moving into a new era?
47:37 - Reflecting on the upcoming conversation with William White
52:29 - Unforeseen consequences of QE
55:40 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK: GIC-ThinkSpace-Building-Balanced-Portfolios-for-the-Long-Run.pdf
- LINK: On the cusp of a new era? | McKinsey
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM26: Out with the FED Put & In with the OIL Put ft. Adam Rozencwajg
Today, we have the pleasure of having Adam Rozencwajg back for another conversation on the global energy crisis, this time primarily focusing on the demand side of the crisis. We discuss oil reserves, OPEC and how disruptions in supplies impact the energy sector, why we are seeing a spike in demand for oil and how investors are changing their trading behaviour to adapt to the crisis, the impact of the rise of the emerging market middle class and the challenges of structural inflation. We also address how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the energy crisis and how some conspiracy theorists believe that all this conflict is tied together, how the energy crisis affects the American Mid-Term Election and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:06 - The highlights of the previous conversation on energy supply
13:02 - Adam’s perspective on the demand side
21:57 - Blame it on the inflation?
29:11 - The opportunities of a divided world
36:50 - Has demand actually decreased?
42:40 - What can go wrong in regards to the election?
51:00 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI215: Trend Following vs Volatility to Protect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following as well as Volatility, following yet another fast paced and eventful week. We discuss the challenges of being long volatility in the current environment and how under-performing equity stock market volatility is the new normal, the increased popularity of volatility strategies post 2018 and 2020 and different ways of knowing how the strategies may behave in an inflationary environment. We also discuss concerning liquidity conditions and what has caused the current situation, what investors should prioritize, in terms of allocation, to protect their portfolio, how the increase in strength of the U.S. Dollar affects the markets, how investors and pension funds act when inflation is sky rocketing and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:28 - What happened this week?
08:37 - Industry performance update
10:30 - Discussing an article from EQD
18:49 - Going into unknown territory
23:55 - Is liquidity becoming a problem?
35:26 - Volatility strategies vs. Trend Following
43:15 - The strength of the U.S. Dollar
51:26 - Alternative markets... could liquidity be drying out?
56:35 - What happens when inflation is so high?
01:01:48 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL09: The Money Revolution...Rethinking Economic Growth ft. Richard Duncan
Richard Duncan, Economist and best-selling Author, joins us for a conversation on new ways of thinking about economic growth and prosperity. We discuss the historical aspects of growth and how credit creation and consumption generate economic growth, how foreign central banks create credit and how it has created an economic bubble in the American economy, how the U.S. economy has become addicted to credit growth and how the combination of a negative wealth effect and credit contraction poses a threat to the economy. We also the discuss the importance of the CHIPS and Science Act, how China could become the new superpower of the world and what the U.S. can do to prevent it, what a multi trillion dollar investment could mean for the American economy and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Richard on Twitter & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
04:29 - Introduction to Richard Duncan and his book
15:35 - Credit creation and consumption - a long term growth strategy?
22:54 - The problems with foreign central bank credit
31:45 - Reflecting on Alan Greenspan’s response
34:02 - Addicted to credit growth?
36:23 - How will the next 6-12 months look?
46:16 - Why is the CHIPS and Science Act so important?
56:21 - Should the FED stop pay interest on reserves?
01:03:22 - Is Duncan’s model of the economy being acknowledged?
01:07:14 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI214: Trend Following & CTA Replication ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, Managing Member at Dynamic Beta Investments LLC, for a conversation on managed futures replication, ETFs and how they have found a way to get these essential strategies into more investor portfolios. We discuss how they do they have constructed the replication strategies and how Andrew have been able to gain enormous traction among advisers. We also touch on why Andrew does not include crypto and how the price of ETF is established. We take lots of questions and round our conversation off by discussing why managed futures have become an essential part of a portfolio and why Andrew believe that the demand for the strategy will continue to be strong for years to come and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:57 - This week in Trend Following?
06:38 - Industry performance update
08:34 - A bit of background to Andrew and his work
15:12 - The mechanics of their replication strategy
20:20 - Getting correlation right...is that enough?
34:25 - What about flat periods?
41:19 - What is the hardest part of what you do?
44:29 - Q1, Brian: Is there any tax advantages to your product?
46:01 - Q2, Jerry: What does your investor base look like?
53:19 - Are cryptocurrencies part of your universe?
57:16 - Q3, Jerry: How is the price of the ETF made up?
59:24 - Q4, Mike: Will capacity become an issue at a certain level of AUM like it does for traditional CTA strategies?
01:04:17 - Q5: Thoughts on CTAs being an essential part of a portfolio?
01:20:39 - Crisis Alpha
01:30:00 - Bringing value to investors
01:32:09 - Can you replicate a single manager?
01:44:14 - Will the current inflows mean that the CTA industry will reach capacity?
01:48:22 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL08: Why The Best Quitters Win ft. Annie Duke
Today, Annie Duke, Author and former professional poker player, joins us for a conversation on learning under certainty and making better decisions in an uncertain world, based on her book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When To Walk Away”. We discuss when is the right time to quit and what an expedition at Mount Everest can teach us about quitting, why there are no benefits of “learning the lesson the hard way” and why we tend to quit when it is too late, the importance of having kill criteria and splitting the decision. We also discuss why Duke recommends to keep your approach systematic and why setting goals is not always beneficial, the importance of finding a quitting coach and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Annie on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:24 - Introduction to Annie Duke and her book
07:14 - Key takeaways from her book
10:03 - Quitting at the right time
18:08 - Work smarter, not harder
23:04 - Are we overestimating ourselves?
29:57 - Setting rules and making decisions
35:27 - The benefits of splitting the decision
42:04 - Keep it systematic
49:10 - Pros and cons of setting goals
54:32 - What role does age play?
01:03:38 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI213: Trend Following Records are being set in 2022? ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we reflect on what might be the strongest year for Trend Following on record. We discuss the robustness of Trend Following and how it allows investors to survive in times of uncertainty, how to handle stop-loss when calculating ATR and advice for entering and exiting trades. We also discuss trend identification and why you should avoid prescriptive visual methods, what we can learn from the human hearing when identifying trends and the importance of systematizing your decisions. We finish talking about how to extract and capture trends from your data and why it is important to make your system adaptable to change, why short term look-back periods might not be profitable, why nearly all traders and investors are trend followers and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:15 - What happened this week?
07:22 - Strongest year for Trend Following on record
14:37 - Industry performance update
18:12 - Q1, Josh: Tips for using ATR-based stop loss
29:18 - Methods for identifying trends
47:39 - Fishing for trends
53:37 - Short term vs. long term look-back periods
57:47 - Are all investors trend followers?
01:09:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM25: A realtime account of going through "hell" in the markets ft. Michael Gayed
Today, we are joined by Michael Gayed, award winning Author and Portfolio Manager, for a real time account of what it's like to go through a challenging time in the markets. We discuss how Michael reinvented himself in 2009 and what he learned from the Great Recession, why Michael believes that Trend Following is not a long-vol strategy and how Gayed uses Lumber vs Gold as a market, Risk-on Risk-off indicator and how he uses treasuries as a tool to look forward in time. We also dig into why Gayed believe that higher rates is indicative of an increasing economic activity, why your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself, how buying used items can be a way to fight inflation and why the best investment opportunities happens on dislocations, the reason working harder does not necessarily generate better results and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Michael on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:58 - Introduction to Michael Gayed
06:05 - What Michael learned from the Great Recession?
13:37 - Using the S&P instead of realized volatility
17:21 - Treasuries - A safe asset?
23:22 - A mixed picture in terms of risk
26:39 - Why Lumber instead of Copper?
30:13 - Is the (inversion of the) yield curve still valid?
31:53 - What about the asset class cycle?
34:34 - Higher rates = increased economic activity?
37:27 - Being persistent is key
39:34 - Will yields come in very sharply?
42:02 - The problem of the inflation narrative
45:31 - Allocating to ETFs and funds
48:48 - The sad side to the business
58:26 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI212: Trend Following in a Soft, Hard or No Landing ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us for our weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful month of September and a good year for trend, so far. We discuss what causes trends and why we are starting to see bigger moves in markets in recent years, whether the economy will have a Soft, Hard or No landing and what impact it will have on market performance, why we might still be in a commodity super cycle and why commodities are linked to volume unlike financial assets. We also discuss what Alan has learned from his recent road trip, the unintended consequences of a Liability Driven Investment Strategy in the pension fund system, why what we saw this week in the UK may be the start of a "death" cycle according to one pension fund consultant and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:52 - Summary of the week
08:34 - Industry performance update
09:54 - Reflecting on the month of September
14:38 - Why do we see trends in markets?
24:12 - Soft, Hard or No landing?
31:45 - Are we still in a commodity super cycle?
40:39 - Key takeaways from Alan’s road trip
48:46 - Article from Wall Street Journal on the UK Pension Fund debacle
56:27 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM24: The Real Cause of the Global Energy Crisis (Part 1) ft. Adam Rozencwajg
Today, we welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, to help us understand the global energy crisis and how we ended up in this situation. We discuss the outlook of the coming months and why we are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle, how the supply and demand side of the economy functions and what role the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plays in a global energy crisis. We also discuss the different types of energy commodities, how convergence will affect the energy market and how to take advantage of it, the history of energy and the importance of ensuring a continuous abundance of efficient energy, how nuclear power can be a viable solution to the energy crisis and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:01 - Heading into the winter
10:42 - Flood the market with oil...a good idea?
14:50 - Understanding the supply side
29:30 - Venezuela - A hot spot?
33:21 - Is the SPR in trouble?
40:12 - The role of the different energy commodities
42:51 - Why convergence and how to take advantage of it
51:56 - The end of energy abundance
59:57 - Is nuclear the future?
01:05:18 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI211: A Trend Following Renaissance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins after an intense week for central banks and global markets. We discuss how the current situation affects us as Trend Followers and the potential systemic risks in the futures exchange community in case of a global financial reset event and how we can use what we learned during the pandemic to tackle the issues of liquidity. We also discuss the difference between CTAs and Trend Followers and why the big investment banks should support their trend following clients...instead of trying to front-run our signals. We debate the global fixed income markets and how central banks create the foundation of a global recession, how what we are experiencing now in terms for trendiness in the markets may just be the beginning, why people who have a need for closure don’t do well with uncertainty and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:23 - Key events from this week?
11:15 - Industry performance update
16:25 - Q1, Matthew: The potential risks for trend funds in a global reset event?
25:18 - Research paper from UBS about CTAs and quant strategies
39:55 - Digging into the global fixed income markets
44:44 - Strong US Dollar and intervention in the Yen market
49:29 - Is the panic yet to come?
55:02 - Closure and dealing with uncertainty
01:03:15 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM23: The Wars of Capital ft. Michael Howell
Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the dominant players over the last decade and the capital war between China and the U.S. We also discuss what might happen if the global economy becomes divided into two worlds, where one is financed by the U.S. dollar and the other financed by the Chinese Yuan and the increasing networking risk and risk of crises within the financial system, the different types of liquidity and the recipe for creating a strong dollar and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Michael on Linkedin and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:51 - Introduction to Michael Howell and his work
07:38 - How much debt is there globally?
14:08 - Why is longer-term treasuries desirable?
16:08 - The off-shore market
19:56 - The capital war between China and the U.S.
41:37 - Is the financial system more fragile than we think?
50:10 - What if the 10-year bond yield blows out rapidly?
53:59 - What has happened with the offshore short-term market?
59:55 - The currency space and relative liquidity
01:02:31 - Comments on the current regime
01:08:18 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI210: Trend Following Q & A ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns after his extended holiday and kicks off by taking a nostalgic look back to 1985 as the British Pounds this week hit the lowest level since that year, to reflect on how markets tend to go in cycles. We also address dynamic optimisation, whether it contributes to make more markets "tradable" and the use of "non-tradable" markets, how Rob uses correlation and clustering for his classification approach and his strategy allocating to Trend Following. Additionally, we discuss techniques for Trend Following on single stocks and determining distances in a continuous MA crossover system, strategies to increase the capacity of a Trend Following program and running multiple different systems together, and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:52 - Key takeaways from the week?
15:35 - What does the future hold for interest rates and inflation?
22:52 - Industry performance update
25:52 - Q1, Joakim: Does dynamic optimisation in itself make more markets tradable?
32:21 - Q1, Follow-up: About adding "non-tradable" markets
35:39 - Q2, Kristen: Futures markets and Rob’s classification approach
43:15 - Q3, Kristoffer: How to treat CTAs? And deciding between allocating to investment-grade corporate bonds or high yield bonds
49:46 - Q4, Elie: Book recommendations for relevant statistical concepts + why not build a trend following portfolio of single stocks which are optimized for low correlation?
57:15 - Q4, Follow-up: About determining distance in a continuous MA crossover system
01:02:11: - Q5, Douggie: What is the capacity of a strategy?
01:09:04 - Q6, Adam: About running multiple different systems together and splitting risk
01:13:17 - Q7, Michael: What’s behind Rob’s low trailing vol?
01:14:16 - Q8, “Toby” (Rob): Can you (Rob) explain your new book?
01:21:39 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL07: Equality Across the Globe can be Achieved ft. Oded Galor
Today, we are joined by Oded Galor, Professor of Economics at Brown University, for a conversation on how we can explore and uncover new ways of thinking about the economy, based on his book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality”. We discuss inequality from a historical aspect and the roots of human behaviour, the Malthusian trap and how the industrial evolution has impacted humanity and how geography, culture and diversity is a key factor in achieving equality. We also address the costs and benefits of diversity within a society and how we need diversity to generate more growth and complex solutions, why China will be left behind due to a lack of cultural fluidity, the process of measuring diversity, how we can improve going forward and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Oded on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
04:00 - Introduction to Oded Galor
07:29 - Fundamental insights from Galor’s book
09:49 - From Stagnation to Growth
21:22 - Education and the labour force
30:24 - The impact of longer-term structural forces
40:38 - Can new cultures emerge?
43:31 - How does diversity impact a society?
50:08 - Is China falling behind?
52:09 - How diversity should be measured?
59:11 - Galor’s advice for moving forward
01:06:00 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI209: Trend Following...The Best Way to Surf the Markets ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we discuss why the crisis we experience at the moment might be worse than previous crises, such as what was experienced in the 1970’s. We also discuss the turtle trading method and how ATR can be used for entering and exiting trades, how Richard adjusts his trailing stop according to the price and level of volatility and why simplicity is the most robust solution to deal with complex markets. Additionally, we address how Trend Following can be used as a diversification tool for your portfolio, the principle of return stacking and how it is used in Trend Following, why more people are turning away from the 60/40 portfolio and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:26 - The stark warning from Niall Ferguson
07:01 - What happened this week?
10:35 - Industry performance update
12:47 - Q1, Irwin: Turtle trading and the use of ATR for position sizing
23:19 - The relationship between trailing stop and volatility
32:45 - Simplicity and sticking to your model
39:32 - Is the 60/40 portfolio outdated?
53:31 - The principle of return stacking
01:04:52 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO11: From Ballet Dancer to CIO ft. Cameron Dawson
Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, who has a really unique background. We address how she allocate and construct her portfolios in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why she prefesr to play on the smaller side of funds. We also discuss the importance of valuations and how it can help forecast long term returns and how she analyzes earnings and liquidity to understand and navigate an uncertain macro environment, the outlook for inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability as well as their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, as well as some sound advice for aspiring CIOs and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Cameron on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:10 - Introduction to Cameron and her work at NewEdge Wealth
08:01 - Navigating in a tough environment
14:31 - Their approach to asset allocation
21:31 - The historical perspective
29:56 - Getting comfort in an uncertain macro environment
41:20 - Is high inflation here to stay?
48:33 - What it will take for the Fed to call victory?
53:18 - Bottom-Up or Top-Down?
01:00:39 - Dealing with individual investors
01:06:36 - Advice for aspiring CIOs
01:12:53 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI208: Trend Following in Today's Economy ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following where we reflect on the ongoing instability in the markets and look back on the month of August. We also discuss behavioural biases and why we may need to distinguish between managed futures and trend following, an article by Quantica on the benefits of trend following and how it can without a doubt improve your portfolio. Lastly, we reflect on the annual event at Jackson Hole and the BIS talking about the challenges ahead, the 2% inflation target and how it can impact the economy if changed, the Volcker tightening cycle and the importance of narratives as well as an update on Jeremy Grantham’s super bubble hypothesis and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:01 - Summary of the week
09:44 - Industry performance update
11:46 - Reflecting on the month of August
16:13 - Alan’s perspective on the Cliff Asness article
28:01 - The undisputed benefits of Trend Following
38:00 - Key takeaways from Jackson Hole
46:00 - Comment from BIS
49:45 - Are we leaving the 2% inflation target?
53:54 - Lessons from the Volcker tightening cycle
01:00:20 - Latest piece from Jeremy Grantham
01:04:23 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO10: How to Manage $50bn ft. Jason Morrow
Today, we are joined by Jason Morrow, Deputy CIO at Utah Retirement Systems, for a conversation on how portfolio management is carried out at a large pension fund. We discuss how Morrow approaches the objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio and the realized volatility over time, how they manage the challenges of an inflationary environment and balance their portfolio to mitigate risk, how they find the right mix of public and private equities and their approach to absolute return strategies. We also address the process of assembling a team of managers and evaluating quant strategies, how to mitigate behavioural biases when selecting manager, cultivating talent as a CIO and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Jason on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:35 - Introduction to Jason Morrow
08:02 - Investment objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio
13:21 - How does inflation affect URS's portfolio?
20:27 - Building and balancing the portfolio
24:29 - Public vs. private equities
31:22 - Using multiple asset allocating strategies
38:06 - Their approach to selecting managers
41:15 - Evaluating quant strategies
45:51 - Behavioural biases in manager selection
50:27 - Return expectations setting for alts
55:42 - Mastering the role as a CIO
01:01:13 - Book recommendations and key advice for listeners
01:05:53 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI207: Trend Following: The Perfect Portfolio? ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins me for a raw conversation on Trend Following, the day after Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole on fighting inflation and achieving economic stability. We also discuss the pros and cons of CTA/Managed futures replication strategies and the importance of investing in your own fund as a manager, the evolution of Trend Following and why Trend Following might be the Perfect Portfolio. We touch on different ways of diversifying your portfolio and why correlation is not always reliable friend. Lastly, we discuss an article by Morgan Housel on why it is important to identify the core principles (in our case of Trend Following) and how incentives are the strongest force in the world, the importance of having confidence whilst being humble and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:51 - Summary of the week
08:35 - Industry performance update
12:21 - Discussion about CTA/Managed futures replication strategies
26:19 - Aligning incentives as a manager
33:28 - Aspect article in Hedge Fund Journal
46:47 - Article by Cliff Asness on Pure Trend Following
51:33 - Crisis alpha vs the Perfect Portfolio
01:03:40 - Article by Morgan Housel on following Core Principles
01:11:15 - Confidence vs. Ability
01:14:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM22: Investing through a Fourth Turning ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen & Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan and I reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:54 - Looking back on previous GM guests and how they impacted our thinking
09:17 - Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective
21:11 - How much power and control does the Fed actually have?
31:02 - Low interest rates... a bubble maker?
40:03 - The inverted yield curve...a sign?
49:26 - Using volatility as a guide for equity markets
59:14 - What happens to the dollar?
01:04:13 - What should investors be considering at this point?
01:12:24 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI206: Trend Following is a Lazy Man's Strategy ft. Mark Rzepczynski
This week, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for our weekly update on Trend Following, at the end of yet another busy week for inflation watchers. Based on an article by Cliff Asness at AQR, we discuss why you want to own managed futures and why you want to avoid getting "carried away" as a Trend Follower, the dual mandate and the difference between strategy and running a business, innovation in Trend Following and why macro trends do not always translate to price trends. We also discuss how high inflation affects Trend Following and the importance of divergence, why turning points kill the real issue beyond inflation and using the 70 percent rule to make trading decisions, the difference between trend following and momentum and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:22 - What happened this week?
13:36 - Industry performance update
16:07 - AQR latest article on managed futures
27:56 - The dual mandate and volatility "targeting"
37:55 - The private equity issue and innovation in Trend Following
43:48 - FT Article from Goldman Sachs about inflation and divergence
49:25 - How turning points impact your overall TF returns
53:17 - The 70 percent rule...and why it works for Trend Followers
56:03 - Hedgehogs vs. Foxes and drought in market liquidity
01:02:30 - Trend following vs. Momentum...can you tell the difference
01:03:55 - “Entrepreneurs of errors”
01:06:01 - Supply, Command and End-user of commodities
01:09:02 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM21: The Inflation Regime and the Big Macro Picture ft. Darius Dale
Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Darius on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
0:00 - Intro
03:15 - Who is Darius Dale?
06:48 - Darius's strategic perspective
10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward?
20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months
26:18 - What about the longer term?
31:39 - The historical perspective
39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now
48:22 - Dealing with external factors
58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering
01:02:07 - Are portfolio construction models outdated?
01:10:30 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI205: Trend Following...What Really Matters ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss what really matters within Trend Following, as well as an update on the reaction to the latest CPI data. We also address questions from listeners regarding how to achieve a robust portfolio by avoiding recency bias and using a slow adaptive process, how sample size is most optimally used in Trend Following and the advantages of using a simplistic approach in your trading system. Lastly, we discuss the concept of warehousing risk and how it should be taking into account as part of the risk management. We analyse an article by Morgan Housel about long tails and how it drives every system with exceptional performance, and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:36 - Review of the market action post CPI data?
07:27 - Industry performance update
11:35 - Q1, Gareth: Emphasising recent performance vs. over optimisation
21:13 - Q2, Antonio: Why not use a smaller sample size?
41:45 - What does warehousing risk mean?
50:52 - Tails, you win - Analysis of Morgan Housel article
56:50 - Top 3 things that matter the most in Trend Following
01:05:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL06: The History of Interest & the Next Devastating Crisis ft. Edward Chancellor
Edward Chancellor, Author, Journalist and unrivaled Financial Historian, joins us today to discuss the history of Interest, based on his new book, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest". We address why it is crucial to pay attention to the historical perspectives of the economy, the allocation of capital and interest and why low interest rates have a feedback effect on the economy, the zombie corporate phenomenon and the impact it has on the economy. We also discuss the longer term consequences of low interest rates and whether bubbles can be beneficial, globalization and how interest rates impacts the fragility of global supply chains, the role of Central Banks and how they affect price stabilization by preventing creative destruction. Lastly, we discuss how the Fed policy of “cleaning up afterwards” creates unintended problems, how a zero interest policy can pose a threat to capitalism and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Edward on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:19 - Introduction to Edward
04:19 - The process of writing his latest book
14:15 - Are we forgetting the economic history?
19:34 - How Edward approaches his study of Interest
25:43 - The impact of interest rates
35:22 - The notion of zombie companies
46:04 - Can bubbles be beneficial?
52:01 - How interest rate affects global supply chains
57:27 - Central banks and price stabilization
01:04:54 - Should Central Banks prevent bubbles?
01:08:39 - Is a zero-interest policy a threat to capitalism?
01:14:14 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI204: Trend Following & A Cocktail of Macro Factors ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss the ongoing instability in the markets and rising inflation, and why we, as investors, should keep an open mind for what is to come. We address the pros and cons of replication strategies, the performance of the past months and why we are beginning to see a shift in the markets. We review some recent articles, including an interview with Edward Chancellor, who is current with a new book, The Price of Time. Topics we cover include the impact of low interest rates, how we are in a war economy and how we are seeing a shift in the aggregate supply curve, expectations and predictions for inflation in the coming time and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:02 - What happened this week?
14:20 - Trend Following update of the week
16:55 - Replicating vs. hiring managers
22:30 - Reflecting on the past months market reversals
40:36 - Why is Trend Following performing well at the moment?
48:06 - Discussing Edward Chancellor’s interview
53:06 - Zoltan Pozsar’s article on war and interest rates
58:56 - Bridgewater article on inflation and conversation with Bilal Hafeez
01:06:45 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
AL09: FED Funds may hit 8% ft. Bilal Hafeez
Bilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how the future for asset allocation looks and how the sanctions against Russia impacts the economy around the world. Lastly, Bilal explains his process and approach to making research and recommends books that have been influential to him.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Bilal on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:03 - Introduction to Bilal Hafeez
07:51 - How does the community respond to the current environment?
10:43 - FED Funds & the economic outlook of the next 6-12 months
23:17 - An inflation story
29:39 - Demographics - is it inflationary or dis-inflationary?
35:20 - What is next for asset allocation
44:03 - Should we worry about the sanctions against Russia?
51:58 - Lessons learned from previous crises
55:16 - Bilal’s research process and approach
01:02:36 - Book recommendations
01:06:01 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI203: A new way of doing Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker where we dive into some of the highlights from the challenging month of July and how the industry has handled the current high level of volatility and trend reversals, why Trend Following continues to work but how narratives can create vicious reversals in the markets. We also discuss questions from listeners regarding Jerry’s strategies for entering and exiting trades, advice for backtesting using continuous futures contracts, how to handle stop losses and including equities in your allocation strategy. Lastly, Jerry describes why he is in favour of accidental diversification and why he is always on the hunt for outliers, why adding more markets has no impact on the robustness of a system and why he prefers to be a “slow tractor”. We finish off discussing how some firms claim that they can replicate the returns of Hedge Funds and CTAs without charging much for it and Jerry reveals a profound change to how he wants to extract trends from markets...even if it means that he will more correlated to Equities.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:02 - Market overview
03:52 - Major events of the month
16:00 - The importance of narratives
19:16 - How Jerry handles equities
22:39 - Q1, Michael: How does Jerry enter a new trade after he exited his first?
25:55 - Q2, Caleb: Backtesting using continuous futures contracts
30:02 - Q3, Adam: How to use stop losses and equities inclusion
36:09 - Jerry's big reveal: "CTAs focus too much on diversification and correlation..."
45:42 - Tweet 1: Improving equity risk concentration
50:53 - Tweet 2: Diversification - a free lunch
53:01 - Tweet 3: Predictable vs. unpredictable inflation
56:55 - Tweet 4: Tractors picking out sports cars from ditches
58:57 - Tweet 5: Doing what you want is what people actually want
01:02:09 - Tweet 6: Non normal world is uncapped
01:05:01 - Replicating CTA performance at little cost...Andrew Beer style
01:21:05 - Industry performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL05: The Road to Economic Stability ft. Andrew Smithers
Today, we are joined by Andrew Smithers, Author, Economist and Founder of Smithers & Co, to discuss how we can achieve economic stability, based on his book, “The Economics of the Stock Market”. We address the Q Ratio and why it is important for economic stability, how to use the idea of hindsight value to predict markets and how monetary policy has contributed to economic instability, the incentives for a company’s management and how to balance the level of leverage. Lastly, we discuss reasons why policy makers should be focusing on Q, what Andrew has planned for the future and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Andrew on Smithers & Co & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:15 - Introduction to Andrew
03:28 - Key messages from his book
06:42 - How is the Q Ratio constructed?
14:34 - The idea of hindsight value
23:31 - How Quantitative Easing caused instability?
26:49 - How remuneration policies have led to an increased Q value
31:14 - The incentives for management
42:30 - Should policy makers focus more on Q?
53:10 - The economic consequences of Alan Greenspan
56:21 - Andrew’s plans going forward
01:04:42 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI202: Trend Following in a Binary World ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynsky joins us today for a weekly talk on Trend Following, where we discuss how we are beginning to see stagflation and recession around the world, how to manage systemic risk as a trend follower, how to construct your portfolio using Trend Following funds and why it’s preferred to let Trend Following funds replace bonds and commodities, whilst leaving equities in your portfolio. Additionally, we discuss how a global macro binary world allows for Trend Following to work and why Mark believe in “let prices speak for themselves”. We round things off discussing how the Fed uses the “Powell Call” rather than the "Greenspan Put" to determine how they should react to the markets and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:43 - Recap of the major events from this week?
09:43 - Industry performance update
12:40 - Q1, Alp: How to manage Systemic Risks
32:40 - Q2, Algernond: Portfolio construction using Trend Following funds
41:05 - A global macro binary world and its impact on trend following
53:13 - Revival of accepting price action when it comes to investment process
01:01:18 - Moving beyond the Greenspan Put
01:04:39 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL04: Inflation & The Great Demographic Reversal ft. Manoj Pradhan
Manoj Pradhan, Author and Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the structural forces that will drive markets in the future, based on his book, “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. We cover demographics and how it has impacted inflation and interest rates, the idea of using robots and automation to make society more efficient and productive, how ageing is a major contributor to a country’s debt and how inflation can be used as a tool to deal with rising debt, monetization of debt through bonds and how it can be deflationary in some cases. Lastly, we discuss why Manoj believes inequality is going to decrease, due to an imbalance in the labour force, how this shift in equality impacts the economy and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Manoj on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:13 - Introduction to Manoj and his book
07:59 - How demography has impacted inflation and interest rates?
15:05 - Can the global labour force be increased?
22:31 - Using automation to increase efficiency
33:49 - Did we interpret the yield curve wrong?
43:34 - The monetization of debt
50:13 - Is equality going to wane?
57:56 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI201: Trend Followers Positioned for Recession ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Richard Brennan tackle lots of great questions from listeners as to why Trend Following works, why trends occur in markets and why it is best to exploit them using a systematic approach, the idea of doing Trend Following on Trend Following using the TTU trend barometer. We also discuss different ways of looking at leverage in your portfolio, pros and cons of using stops and different approaches to applying volatility targeting. Lastly, we discuss why it can be beneficial to trade more than one Trend Following system, the issues that can occur when using the same system for a diversified composite, how to avoid the anxiety associated with building drawdowns and finally we address recent statements made that CTAs may be not be well positioned should we enter into a recession.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:03 - Update on recent market and economic news?
08:36 - Industry Performance update
10:28 - Q1, Bruno: Why does Trend Following work?
22:57 - Q2, Elie: Doing Trend Following on Trend Following
29:50 - Q3, Adam: How to calculate leverage for a CTA?
35:43 - Q4, Mark: Complicating your system with stops & views on volatility targeting
54:51 - Trading an ensemble of systems vs. a single system
58:44 - Using the same systems for a diversified portfolio
01:06:12 - Dealing with the psychological challenges of drawdowns
01:13:22 - Comments on whether Vol or TF strategies may be best for a comming Recession
01:22:01 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL03: Finding Optimism in Times of Crises ft. Larry Siegel
Today, Larry Siegel, Author and Director of Research at CFA Research Foundation, joins us to discuss his book, “Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance” and how demographic trends impact inflation. Additionally, we discuss the benefits of population growth, the importance of having a free society and how authoritarianism and fascism impairs a population, the history of economic growth and how it has enabled better and cheaper sources of energy, nuclear power and how it can be a solution to the global energy crisis. Lastly, we discuss why global warming is not as severe and urgent of a problem as many believe, due to technological advancements and great progress in recent years.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Larry on Twitter & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:12 - An introduction to Larry and his book
11:46 - Key takeaways from Larry’s study of demographic trends
18:48 - Population and economic growth around the world
27:49 - The importance of freedom
31:53 - Economic growth = better and cheaper sources of energy?
38:30 - Nuclear power - a tail risk?
48:31 - The potential of genetic engineering in agriculture and medicine
54:07 - Is the climate emergency not an emergency?
01:01:40 - Takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI200: Stacking Returns into a Tightning Cycle ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne and I discuss the use of return stacking in asset management when building a diversified portfolio and the risk implications, adding CPPI on top of Trend Following and using options to achieve a constant cash flow. We also discuss the increasing inflation and rising uncertainty in the economy, the relationship between inflation and unemployment and how we are in the middle of a different Fed tightening cycle, as well as ways to build a portfolio in a difficult asset environment and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:58 - Summary of the week
07:49 - Industry performance update
10:50 - Q1, Matthijs: Using return stacking in portfolio construction
26:38 - Q2, Adding CPPI on top of Trend Following & using options
38:12 - Increasing uncertainty in the economy
56:13 - Building portfolios for different regimes
01:05:46 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL02: Cold War & US Relations with China ft. James A. Fok
James A. Fok, Financial Markets Professional and author of the book, “Financial Cold War”, joins us today for a discussion on how the Great Leap Forward has had an impact on China as a society and why they start to experience a virtual societal collapse, the financial relationship between China and the U.S and how financial warfare between the two countries can create a global crisis. We also discuss the idea of financial mutually assured destruction and how the Western society can become more financially independent from China and vice versa, the notion of having a neutral reserve currency to create a more balanced financial relationship and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow James on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:58 - Who is James A. Fok & why did he write his book
07:30 - A virtual societal collapse in China
19:02 - An emerging scepticism?
25:03 - The balance payment deficit of the U.S
40:10 - Deepening the interdependencies between China and the U.S
50:14 - A fragmented financial relationship
56:59 - The possibility of a neutral reserve currency
01:02:50 - Takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI199: Achieving Highest CAGR through Optimal Leverage ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins us to discuss the eventful month of June and take questions from listeners regarding moving average crossover systems including what the best exit rules are for these systems, and why it might not be a good idea to enter all existing positions for new accounts. We also debate the sustainability of short-term Trend Following and intraday trading, and how much of the profit from TF Systems can be expected to come from Long sided trades as well as ways of investing into UCITS funds with pension money without paying too high fees. Finally, Rob shares some very important aspects on the relationship between optimal leverage and CAGR and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
05:53 - Performance update from Rob and Niels
15:23 - Q1, Andrew: How best to use Moving Average Crossover Systems
20:40 - Q2, Greg: The downside of entering all existing positions for new accounts
24:13 - Q3, Algernond: Getting into UCITS funds at a reasonable price
28:04 - Q4, Michael: Has Rob considered refocussing on short-term trading?
44:20 - Q5, Anders: How much profit comes from long-sided trades & why?
55:08 - Understanding the relationship between CAGR & Leverage
01:17:58 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL01: Turning Water Into Wine with Diversification ft. Antti Ilmanen
In today’s episode, Antti Ilmanen, author and Global co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management, joins us to discuss key learnings from his new book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”. We break down why commodities are crucial for generating returns in periods of high inflation and how to manage risk through diversification. We also discuss portfolio construction and whether bonds are still valuable in a diversified portfolio, market timing and how to balance emerging markets and developed markets in your investment strategy, why a diversified blend of risk premia is advantageous and finish off highlighting potential pitfalls of using long-term data and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Antti on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:36 - About Antti’s book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”
15:22 - The importance of commodities, especially during inflationary times
21:36 - What’s up with bonds?
30:06 - Emerging markets vs. high beta
38:40 - Alternative risk premia...both Alpha & Beta like
47:00 - The idea of valuation spreads and crowding concerns
52:04 - The defensive bucket...getting rid of the junk
01:02:16 - Summary by Kevin and Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI198: Trend Following wearing Loose Pants ft. Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how recessions affect current trends and returns for Trend Followers, how to use ATR to determine the initial stop and when to switch to using a trailing stop for your position. We also discuss if it's possible to achieve comparable performance when investing through a public or private fund. Finally we turn to a few imporant topics like how “alts” or "alternatives" mean different things to different people, the Commodity Super Cycle and how it can create a false narrative, how Trend Following adapts to market regimes and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:57 - Market overview
09:42 - Q1, Andre: What to expect after a good run in Trend Following returns
13:51 - Q2, Ryan: How to use Average True Range (ATR)
27:05 - Q3, David: Performance in public mutual funds vs. offshore funds
32:07 - Q4, Paul: When to switch from Initial to Trailing stop and sizing your position
39:56 - Q5, Victor: How did Jerry manage to give back 200 ATRs in TESLA?
47:17 - Q6, Victor: How to Allocate your Risk Budget to avoid running out of cash?
53:41 - The different meatnings of “Alts” when it comes to investing
01:02:04 - Commodity Super Cycles - a false narrative?
01:09:51 - How Trend Following adapts to ever chaning market regimes
01:13:02 - What to expect from Trend Following in the long run
01:18:37 - Industry performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM20: Bitcoin & The Great Power Shift ft. Nathaniel Whittemore
Nathaniel Whittemore, aka NLW, creator and host on The Breakdown podcast, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the big power shifts and social changes that are taking place in the world right now, the limits of Central Banks to handle inflation, the future of Crypto and how it impacts the social dynamics of society. We also discuss the dark sides of Bitcoin, regulation of the Crypto space and its potential pitfalls and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Nathaniel on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:05 - How Nathaniel ended up creating The Breakdown
05:30 - Big power shifts taking place right now
08:22 - Is the FED losing control?
18:38 - The future of Crypto
38:19 - The dark sides of Bitcoin
01:02:23 - A Bitcoin liquidation...could it happen?
01:07:13 - Regulating crypto...the pros and the cons
01:25:04 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI197: Why Trend Following Works...Especially Now ft. Mark Rzepczynski
In today’s episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss a listener question regarding different ways of adding capital and adjusting position size. We also take a deep dive into the latest research paper from Aspect Capital, which discuss the Great Repricing of Risk and why Trend Following strategies are advantageous in times of crises, dislocation of markets and how shocks in markets affect behaviour and performance. We also talk about the difference between unpredictable and predicable inflation and what this mean for investors, how people may start to lose confidence in the Central Banks and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:33 - Weekly overview
13:24 - Q1, Kyle: How to adjust position size, when adding capital
25:12 - The Great Repricing of Risk...and what this mean for you as an investor
35:25 - The different effects of large market shocks vs. many mini shocks
44:33 - What the future holds and if it will resemble the 1940s or the 1970s
51:44 - Losing confidence in Central Banks...the Micro and Macro impact
01:02:32 - Long term vs short term strategies...which will perform best in a volatile world?
01:11:50 - Industry performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM19: Brace Yourself for Dramatic Market Moves ft. Peter Atwater
In today’s episode, Peter Atwater, author and adjunct professor of Economics at William & Mary, joins us to discuss socionomics and why media is a great mirror of mood, how confidence in Central Banks relates to the level of interest rates, “stacked vulnerability” and how it runs the potential of creating exhaustion, inequality and the battle between the top and the bottom of society. We also discuss how the current inflation creates false expectations and why we might see a violent move in market prices, how deglobalization is a consequence of a change in social mood, ways to implement a more confidence driven decision making investment strategy and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Peter on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:05 - Peter’s background
05:36 - Why socionomics is important to understand and follow
14:27 - How to determine the Confidence in Central Banks
17:26 - Accumulated exhaustion, what this means
25:35 - Crypto - a betrayal?
37:55 - Expected and Un-Expected Inflation - a sign of Scarcity
46:01 - A potential massive market Cycle Top?
51:33 - Heading towards deglobalization
01:02:54 - Global Fragmentation
01:12:24 - Confident decision making
01:16:21 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI196: Where Next for Trend Following? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins us to discuss recent events in the world of Trend Following and takes questions from listeners regarding what it takes to do Trend Following full-time and how much capital is needed to do so. We also discuss potential benefits of adding a mean reversion system on a short term time frame and exploring trend following in spreads, what Rob thinks of trading alternative markets, how to mitigate the pain from false breakouts and how to select a universe of stocks to apply your existing rules. Finally, we break down the latest research paper from AHL dealing with the outlook of Trend Following, how Trend Following perform in crisis periods, in periods of rising interest rates and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:14 - Market recap
05:51 - What has caught Rob’s attention recently?
13:35 - Q1, Ben: Going Full-Time a a Trend Follow - How much capital do I need?
22:16 - Q2, Gambit: Should I add a Mean Reversion & Spread Trading model?
31:47 - Q3, Younggotti: Alternative assets and markets - do they help?
36:44 - Q4, FluffyDunny: How to best avoid False Breakouts
39:36 - Q5, Mendel: How to select your universe of stocks to trade
44:37 - AHL Paper: Gaining Momentum - Where Next for Trend Following?
01:07:22 - Bloomberg article
01:10:00 - Industry performance update
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM18: Boomers, Tax & Deflation ft. Alfonso Peccatiello & Andreas Steno Larsen
In today’s episode, the dynamic duo Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf and Andreas Steno Larsen, join us to discuss all things Macro...from Central Banks and the reasons for the rising inflation, populism and how monetary policy has created inequality. We also get around demographics and how the shrinking labour force poses a threat to the economy, ESG and the impact it has on inflation, how a generational shift in politics can cause a taxation of the boomers, the 4th Turning and key mistakes to avoid as an investor and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Andreas on Twitter.
Follow Alfonso on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:15 - Setting the stage for our conversation
07:26 - Current Macro outlook...and how its evolved in recent months
13:47 - Populism & potential for Deflation
28:51 - Demographics & Labour force
53:05 - Central Bank policies
01:03:58 - Key mistakes to avoid
01:10:09 - Wrapping up
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI195: Trend Following 101 ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us in today’s episode, to discuss all things Trend Following and we take lots of questions from listeners regarding methods for calculating initial stops and trailing stops, how to define and classify Trend Following, programming languages and how CTAs follow their system rules during drawdowns. We also talk about how big the Trend Following industry really is, back testing, risk management and allocating funds to a professional manager and how the TTU Trend Following Index compares to other indices plus much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:24 - Weekly highlights
09:24 - Q1, John: Risk Management & Calculating stops
13:31 - Q2, Abe: Outliers, esoteric products - do we need them?
20:53 - Q3, Zach: How to keep following your rules in difficult times?
31:41 - Q4, Troy: How big is the Funds Management industry?
35:54 - Q5, Adam: Allocating to external TF funds, using Filters & much more
01:05:47 - The Unique side of the TTU Trend Following Index
01:19:03 - Industry Performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM17: Elon Musk...From Showman to Charlatan ft. Grant Williams
Today, Grant Williams, creator of The Grant Williams Podcast, joins us to discuss the direction that the world is heading from a global macro perspective, the role of the Federal Reserve and how it has corrupted the price of money. We also touch on how the loss of faith in institutions is a key feature of the Fourth Turning, how inflation impacts inequality and how confidence in the Federal Reserve correlates with the level of interest rates, crypto currencies and the underlying problems of the technology, Central Banking 2.0 and what happens if a Central Bank buys all the bonds in a market, real estate and the potential dangers of the housing sector, the commodity super cycle and how it causes rising interest rates, and the fate and fortune of Elon Musk plus much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Grant on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
04:19 - Grant’s background
05:54 - The big global macro picture
16:08 - The role of the Federal Reserve today
25:16 - Inflation...the great equalizer or not
36:09 - Crypto and not so stable coins
44:06 - Central Banking 2.0
58:43 - The danger signs in Real Estate
01:06:58 - The commodity super cycle
01:13:41 - Elon Musk...from Showman to Charlatan
01:19:04 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI194: Trend Following & Manager Selection ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss manager selection and how to overcome behavioural biases, based on his paper, “Solving the Manager Selection Puzzle”, narratives and dealing with randomness in Trend Following, the end of the 60/40 portfolio and moving from public to private equity, trend following performance and quantitative investment strategies, trend following in an ever changing world and the expectation of going back to “normal”, the challenges of globalization and demographics and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:14 - Summary of the week
11:47 - The Challenges of Manager selection
18:22 - The Influeence of Randomness
25:57 - Alan's own Vulnerability
28:16 - The 5 Step Solution
30:03 - When the honest answer is what investors want to hear
46:42 - The evolution of the 60/40 portfolio - Barrons article
55:51 - Trend following in the Press
01:02:53 - Will we ever go back to "normal"
01:06:11 - The Great Demographic Twist
01:09:00 - Performance Update
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM16: Central Banking in a De-Globalized World ft. Joseph Wang
Joseph Wang, former senior FED trader & known as the “Fed Guy”, joins us to discuss the credibility of the FOMC and what drives the neutral rate, Central Bank policies and the consequences of increased divergence, monetary policies and reducing liquidity to address the problems of inflation, de-globalization and how labour is no longer connected to corporate wellness, how the FED and other Central Banks have focused on the wrong things for the last few decades, exorbitant privilege and whether the FED is starting to lose control, safe assets and ways to preserve capital, cryptocurrencies, strength of the Dollar and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Joseph on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:13 - Joseph’s background
06:34 - Shocking FED Announcement
10:52 - Central Bank policies
14:11 - Monetary policies and liquidity
30:40 - Fed paper suggesting they don't know where Inflation comes from
40:03 - The wider consequences
45:45 - FED losing control?
53:55 - Safe assets and crypto
01:05:01 - What keeps Joseph up at night?
01:09:52 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI193: Nothing But Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
Trend Following legend Jerry Parker joins me today, where we answer questions regarding the effectiveness and risks of Richard Dennis’ “Pyramiding” methodology, how single stocks have performed differently than the indices recently, how to most optimally apply breakout systems, how to react to a drastic fall in a market like we saw in LUNA and the difference between performance of short and long trades in non-volatility targeted systems, how to avoid harmful research pursuits and popular ideas that just don’t work, different ways that ownership of a CTA passes on to a new owner, designing systems that gives you a high degree of consistency and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
06:32 - What has caught Jerry’s attention?
13:34 - Q1, Sascha: The Richard Dennis “Pyramiding” methodology
18:35 - Q2, Jeff: Jerry’s current positioning in single stocks
23:10 - Q3, Louis: Parameter selection for different breakout systems
32:16 - Q4, Adam & Scott: How to deal with a drastic fall in a market like LUNA
41:49 - Q5, Carl: What doesn’t work in Trend Following?
48:34 - Q6, Brian: How to pass on ownership of a CTA Business
53:34 - Designing consistent Trend Following systems
01:09:17 - Trend, trends and no diversification
01:22:36 - Performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM15: The New World Order & Space Race ft. Pippa Malmgren
Pippa Malmgren, former White House Adviser, technology entrepreneur and economist, joins us in today’s episode to discuss warfare in space and the space race between the super powers and the push to declassify UFO related information, how Pippa stays optimistic in a world of conflict and how the instability threatens Western democracy. We also discuss what we now know about COVID & the Vaccines and how this relates to the FED, how money printing has created a situation of both artificial calm and social unrest, whether China plans to invade Taiwan and what China has learned from the invasion of Ukraine, how the demographics of China and Russia can inhibit their power of action, how the lack of nuance contaminates the public debate and divides the population, the future of democracy and decline of autocracy, innovation and the jobs of tomorrow and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Pippa on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
05:26 - Out-sourcing & Off balance sheet government activities
08:05 - Space warfare
15:00 - Optimism in an unstable world
20:00 - The Future of Western democracy
25:10 - Money printing and its consequences
27:55 - The Baltics and separating Germany from the Alliance
33:52 - The prospects of China invading Taiwan
46:40 - What we now know about COVID & the Risk of the FED making a huge mistake
57:16 - Democracy in decline?
01:11:14 - The jobs of tomorrow
01:19:10 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI192: Knowing What You Don't Know ft. Mark Rzepczinsky
Mark Rzepczynski joins us in today’s episode to discuss inflation and how it threatens the economy, the power and paranoia of Trend Following and how you make the most money as a Trend Follower, what history tells us about common risks and diversification, portfolio construction and whether having more markets gives you better returns, the timing of Trend Following and why you need to have it as a core allocation, how to build the optimal portfolio and why bonds currently may not warrent an allocation, Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi and how the FED being behind the curve affects Trend Following, why bond vigilantes are back and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
04:15 - Inflation
09:09 - Trend Following update
13:00 - Trends trends trends
28:49 - Portfolio construction
42:50 - Timing of Trend Following
49:12 - The Optimal Portfolio
55:12 - Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi
01:04:16 - China and future growth
01:06:07 - Overview of performance
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM14: The Dark Side of Renewable Energy ft. Adam Rozencwajg
Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins us in today’s episode to discuss ESG policies, the emerging energy crisis, and the new battle between the Climate-Green and the Nature-Green. We also dive into how the energy sector has evolved over time and the dark sides of renewable energy, why Moore’s Law does not apply to wind and solar energy, how cheap energy leads to distortion and malinvestment of energy, how the argument of human extinction skews the energy debate, nuclear energy and how it might be a solution to the climate crisis, how de-globalization has made the energy sector more vulnerable and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
05:12 - Adam’s background & the history of Energy
13:58 - The Dark side of Renewable energy
29:11 - Moore’s Law
36:54 - Malinvestment and creative destruction
44:33 - The renewable energy debate
52:34 - Nuclear energy
01:04:54 - De-globalization and its consequences
01:09:42 - Link between energy prices and GDP
01:13:00 - Rounding off
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI191: The Flash Crash & Central Banks Screwing Up ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss the fragility of the market and what happens if the Central Bank screws up, the current regime and how it benefits Trend Following, volatility targeting and how trending towards equilibrium differs from trending towards transition, how Trend Following has developed over the years, why he always invest in liquid markets, system diversification and how it allows you to expand your market diversification, the weak edge of Trend Following and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:32 - Weekly highlights
13:35 - Volatility targeting and continuous systems
38:30 - Researching structural reasons for success
43:30 - System Diversification vs Market Diversification
56:26 - The weak edge of Trend Following
01:07:30 - Performance overview
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM13: The Decline of the Dollar & Prepping for the Worst ft. Izabella Kaminska
Today, Cem and I are joined by Izabella Kaminska, former Editor of Financial Times Alphaville and Founder of The Blind Spot, to discuss the war of information and mis-information, the aftermath of Covid 19, how the media contributes to a segmentation of society, the group-think phenomenon, how shifts in culture has an impact on economics and how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the global economy. We also discuss the power balance between the Western and the Russian economy, the dollar standard and the factors that contribute to undermine the dollar, isolationism and what de-globalization will look like, the energy crisis and how ESG is becoming increasingly important and perhaps leading to the rise of nuclear technology and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Izabella on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:45 - About Izabella and her journey
06:27 - Autocracy vs. Democracy
15:50 - Covid19...the aftermath
22:00 - Media Segmentation Theory
31:34 - 2022 Economics
49:50 - Western vs. Russian economy
56:31 - Shift in commodities
01:07:25 - Deglobalization
01:18:55 - Nuclear technology
01:24:41 - Prepping for the worst
01:28:34 - Rounding off
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI190: Overthinking the Systematic Investment Game ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins us to discuss what happened in the Trend Following world the past few weeks and takes questions from listeners regarding long/short portfolios and how to choose the right criteria for stock selection, positive and negative skew strategies and why mixing them together can be beneficial, interest rates and what to do with uninvested cash in your trading account, the substance and value of big research teams and whether they are “overthinking” the systematic investment game, asset classes and allocating risk, important differences between a moving average crossover strategy and a breakout strategy and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:21 - Market recap
04:55 - Update from Rob
14:50 - Q1, Adrian: “Good” criterias for stock selection?
22:32 - Q2, Emre: Arguments for mixing positive/negative skew strategies?
28:12 - Q3, Blink18: What to do with uninvested cash?
33:45 - Q4, Harry Hindsight: What do big research teams really do?
42:38 - Q5, Richard: Should the class level of an instrument be a criteria for inclusion?
48:34 - Q6, Adam: Difference between moving average crossover and breakout strategy?
54:14 - Q7, James: Common methodologies for position size?
57:34 - The Financial plumbing
01:05:20 - Fixed income markets are not all the same
01:11:20 - War Stories
01:17:25 - Performance
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM12: WW3 is just the beginning ft. Peter Zeihan
In this episode, Niels and Cem are joined by Peter Zeihan, author and Geopolitical strategist, to discuss the New World Order and World War III, how the Globalization has become a new battleground rather than a barrier to conflict, the role of technology in modern warfare, how the US were able to read Putin's emails and the impact of war on a national and global scale, the military and political power of China, America and Russia and the relationship between them and the rest of the world, how democracy is affected by the “age of emergency”, the financial aspects of war and crises, crypto as a potential economic asset and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Peter on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
04:15 - How we got to the brink of WW3?
09:42 - The role of technology
18:32 - The relationship with China
28:25 - Submarines and the war in Ukraine
40:38 - Age of emergency and the threat to Democracy
47:58 - Autocracy and technology
54:34 - The financial perspective
59:39 - The role of Crypto
01:02:39 - Climate change
01:06:56 - What Investors should do
01:10:42 - The role and future of Governments
01:17:11 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI189: A New Era for Currencies ft. Alan Dunne
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss currency markets and how we might see a new era of volatility in these markets moving forward, de-dollarization and the future prospects of the U.S dollar, recent performance of Trend Following and how it compares historically, insights from Alfred Winslow Jones as featured in the book, “More Money Than God”, portfolio construction techniques for managing risk, the importance of having a plan, long-only commodities vs. a long/short approach and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:16 - Market recap
09:02 - New opportunities in Currency markets
23:57 - Putting Trend Following performance in perspective
33:13 - Insights from “More Money Than God”
40:04 - Fixed income vs. equities...where to hedge against inflation
50:52 - Insights from recent conversations with CIOs
58:49 - Commodities...Long Only or Long/Short
01:09:20 - Overview of performance
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM11: The Billionaires Protocol ft. Dr. Ben Hunt
Today, Niels and Cem are joined by Dr. Ben Hunt, Creator of Epsilon Theory, to discuss how he uses game theory, history and behavioral analysis to understand Narrative and how it is used as a weapon to influence human behaviour, how technology has made us more susceptible to "nudging", how Narrative is used to create more competition, division and inequality, how important it is to recognize “the water in which we swim”, the power of Narrative and control of the media, and how to fight back against autocracy in pursuit of happiness, the Billionaires Protocol and much more!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Ben on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:02 - Ben’s background
06:03 - When did Narrative start to become dominant?
16:43 - The nudging competetive state
40:43 - The power of Narrative and “control” of the media
49:24 - How do we fight back?
54:08 - Crypto - a liberation tool?
01:03:28 - Lack of imagination
01:08:28 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI188: Trading with Style ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us in today’s episode, to discuss pros and cons of adding different trading styles to your strategy and how to react when bad periods occur, using borrowed money as part of a systematic trading approach, expected returns of equities, finding the best investment strategy, achieving a high level of consistency in your Trend Following returns, using AI and Machine Learning to predict the future, Divergent Regimes and how they may last a lot longer this time, the geometry of classic Trend Following, what it takes to succeed and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- If it helps adding different styles to your trading strategy
- If you should use borrowed money as part of a systematic trading approach
- How to find the best investment strategy
- How to achieve a high level of consistency in your returns
- The use of AI and Machine Learning...does it improve your returns
- Divergent Regimes and the end of Carry
- The geometry of classic Trend Following
- What it takes to succeed
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
05:02 - What’s been on Jerry’s radar?
07:30 - Q1, Isaiah - Add trading styles or stick with the “Trend Following + nothing”?
19:31 - Q2, Nick - About leverage and using borrowed money
25:40 - Jerry's Tweets
38:30 - Consistency in returns & how to achieve this
43:15 - AI and Machine Learning
49:27 - Divergent Regimes
56:51 - Geometry of trend following
01:01:04 - Inertia of success
01:04:45 - Deep Roots article by Morgan Housel
01:06:27 - Performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO08: Investing like the Rothschild's ft. Hugo Capel Cure
Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Hugo Capel Cure, Managing Director of Rothschild & Co, to discuss how they build strong portfolios for their clients, how rising inflation can affect the markets in a surprising way, how they use CTAs and Trend Followers to mitigate risk, the challenges of staying invested, being a stock and fund picker at the same time, how manager selection is like a dating process and how they differentiate between process and outcome, how they make good decisions as a team, how to act in times of crises, the people who inspired Hugo to become a better investor and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How to build strong Multi-Asset portfolios for your clients
- How using CTAs and Trend Followers can help mitigate risk
- How manager selection is like a dating process
- How to make good decisions as a team
- How to be well prepared for the next crises
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Hugo on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:18 - Introduction to Hugo’s work and investing strategy
18:32 - From correlation focused to trading oriented strategies
24:50 - Being allocated to trend followers
28:35 - Challenges of staying invested
30:23 - Being a chef and a critic
39:41 - Making decisions and having a plan
53:09 - People who have inspired Hugo
59:31 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI187: Why Commodities & Why Now ft. Tim Pickering
In this week’s episode, Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital, joins me to discuss why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio, how to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes, why he created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index, the role and importance of ESG in commodities trading, how commodity futures can be used as a risk mitigation tool, why Ukraine is so important for commodities, how to effectively protect yourself against inflation and much more
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio
- How to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes
- How ESG and commodities trading is closely related
- Whether to embrace Chinese commodity markets
- Why the war in Ukraine is so important for commodities
- Strategies for protecting yourself against inflation
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Tim on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:40 - What has caught Tim and Niels’ attention recently?
06:33 - What has happened since last Niels and Tim spoke in 2014?
11:45 - Has Tim made any major research discoveries since last time?
19:31 - Why commodities and why now?
30:50 - How much room for liquidity is there in the markets?
37:32 - Tim’s thoughts on the LME
44:31 - Thoughts on commodity exposure and futures
51:51 - Why is Ukraine so important for commodities?
01:00:16 - Risk mitigation strategies at big pension plans
01:07:08 - Update on performance
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO07: CIOs on the Edge of Finance ft. Katherine Molnar & Andrew Spellar
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Katherine Molnar, CIO of Fairfax County Police Officers Retirement System, and Andrew Spellar, CIO of Fairfax County Employees Retirement System, to discuss how asset allocation is handled by one of the best performing public pension funds, how they manage risk and balance their portfolio through diversification, how the current instability in the markets has shaped their investment strategy, expectations of returns for different investment strategies, running portfolios using a risk parity framework, moving into digital assets, manager selection and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How asset allocation is handled in a successful public pension fund like Fairfax County Retirement System
- How they manage risk and create balance in their portfolios
- How instability in the markets has shaped their strategy
- How they look at return expectations
- The (brave) move into digital assets
- Manager selection
- Skills and challenges of being a CIO
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katherine on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:05 - Overview of Fairfax County’s asset allocation strategy
14:27 - How has the current market affected their strategy?
19:35 - The growth of risk mitigation strategies
28:42 - Setting return expectations
37:02 - What scenario keeps Molnar and Spellar awake at night?
39:38 - Digital assets in a public pension plan
51:05 - Manager selection...the insight scoop
58:00 - Skills and challenges of being a CIO
01:04:30 - Advice on becoming a better allocator
01:08:08 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI186: Crisis Alpha & My Trend Following Thesis ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Rich and I discuss the Q1 Trend Following performance and how it turned out to be one of the best calendar quarters for the SG Trend and SG CTA indices. We also dive into my own "thesis" about trend following in a De-Globalized world and why I believe that we may be returning to the golden era of trend following, like in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. As usual we debated a few great questions from our community, relating to Volatility Targeting and how to manage your Stop-Loss. A lively episode for sure!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Interest Rates and the current Bear Market in Bonds
- Our slighltly different definitions of the term "Crisis Alpha"
- The concern's Rich has for the World, and what that means for Trend Following
- The impact on Trend Following of a De-Globalization of the World
- The difference between initial and trailling stops, and when to use them
- What software to use to backtest your systems
- Whether dynamically adjusting your position size during a trade is better or worse than keeping it static
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:09 – Weekly recap from Niels
05:22 - Update on Rich's Battleship
15:35 - Crisis Alpha...yes but much more
21:40 - My Trend Following Thesis
37:24 - Q1, Andrew: Could you all define the use of a trailing vs initial stop in systems you use?
52:25 - Q2, Nicolas: Do you know any affordable back testing systems, other than Excel?
56:45 – Q3, Brian: If you Vol adjust your positions...when, if ever, do you re-establish your full position if volatility collapses?
01:21:26 – Industry Performance Update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO06: Betting against Buffett ft. Ted Seides
Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Ted Seides, host and creator of the Capital Allocators podcast, to discuss the investment approach and philosophy of David Swensen, the Yale Model and how Seides has used the model to develop his own approach, whether being a hedgefond allocator has become gradually more difficult over the years, the bet Seides made with Warren Buffett, asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome, what Seides has learned from doing his podcast, decision making processes and governance, crypto currencies and digital assets and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The philosophy of David Swensen and the Yale Model
- How the role of hedge funds has changed over the years
- The bet Seides made with Warren Buffett
- Asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome
- What Seides has learned from doing his podcast
- The importance of leadership and time management
- The difficulty of making a good decision in the heat of the moment
- The future of crypto currencies and digital assets
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Ted on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:23 - Ted’s background
07:35 - How Seides deviates from Swensen in his approach
10:36 - The Yale Model and the end of 60/40
15:55 - Is it more difficult to be a hedgefond allocator now?
23:03 - Asset allocation vs. manager selection
31:35 - What has Seides learned from doing his podcast?
39:58 - Learning by doing vs. learning from courses etc.
41:22 - What has Seides learned from interviewing CIOs and Allocators?
43:35 - What constitutes good and bad governance?
49:14 - Ted’s perspective on crypto currencies and digital assets
51:55 - Macro trends in the coming years
53:39 - Reflection on the success of Ted’s podcast
57:47 - How Ted’s role has evolved
01:01:21 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI185: Trend Following in a De-Globalised World
Mark Rzepczynski joins me in this week’s episode, to discuss strategies for rebalancing your portfolio, the coming de-globalisation and its impact on Trend Following, especially in light of events in Ukraine, the Hedger’s dilemma and how the LME may have lost the trust of its clients, divergence and how it might cause disruption in markets, what Mark learned from working with Ned Johnson III at Fidelity, and how the principle of Kaizen can be applied to trend following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Different strategies for rebalancing your portfolio
- How de-globalisation can impact Trend Following
- The recent events in Nickel trading at the LME
- How divergence might cause disruption in markets,
- How the Japanese philosophy, Kaizen, can be applied to trend following
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - Market recap
04:41 - What has caught Mark’s attention recently?
13:46 - Overview of the week
18:28 - Q1, Brett: Any thoughts on rebalancing based on trending performance?
30:45 - Trend Following, globalization and the Dark Ages
47:15 - What happened at LME?
59:18 - Fidelity, Edward Johnson and the Kaizen philosophy
01:14:29 - Update on performance
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU120: Carry - The Good, the Bad and the Ugly ft. Kevin Coldiron
In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, we discuss:
- The increasing popularity of carry trading and its role in the global economy
- The risk and volatility of carry trading, and how it can play a role in financial bubbles
- How carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies
- The role of liquidity within the carry world
- The future of carry
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on Twitter
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:25 - Introduction to Kevin
05:53 - Background on the co-authors of Kevin’s book
09:43 - Definition of carry trading with examples
13:56 - Volatility vs. risk
23:11 - The role of Volatility in investing
28:27 - Carry trade suppressing volatility
35:55 - Does carry trades play a role in financial bubbles?
41:01 - The current carry regime?
43:38 - Carry in macroeconomics
52:48 - What comes after the carry regime?
01:05:44 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI184: To Trend Follow or Not To Trend Follow ft. Alan Dunne
In today's episode Alan Dunne joins me to discuss many different aspects of trend following - its relevance, strengths, weaknesses and future, roll-harvesting strategies, what causes trends in markets, whether it is too late to invest in trend following, its role within risk mitigation, how investors perceive trend following and if you really need to trade strategies that fits your personality.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Trend following and its strengths, weaknesses, relevance and future
- Dealing with volatility as a trend follower
- Finding investment strategies that fits your personality
- What causes trends in markets
- Risk mitigation strategies
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:45 - Market recap
04:32 - Overview of the week
11:35 - Q1, ABE: What are your opinion on roll-harvesting strategies?
21:06 - What causes trends in markets?
43:05 - Is it too late to invest in trend following?
50:22 - Risk mitigation and investor perception of Trend Following
58:42 - Key insights from the Allocator series so far
01:06:51 - Update on performance
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL11: The Anatomy of a Trade ft. Alex Gurevich
In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How different types of bonds are valuated
- The pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they begin
- Why Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time)
- Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheet
- Alex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zero
- How your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful)
- The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for the global financial market
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Alex on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:42 - Introduction to Alex and his background
07:20 - How Alex think about bonds
16:37 - Have bonds become more important since 2008?
18:15 - Making decisions as a trader, and handling victories and defeats
28:01 - Why did Alex go into dividend futures during Covid crisis?
33:41 - What Alex would have done if the FED had not stepped in during the Covid crisis
35:40 - How manager can feel that their performance defines who they are
41:27 - The synchronization of central banks and the affect on rates
48:59 - What’s going to happen with the FED going forward?
54:05 - Rounding off and overview of Alex’s books
59:38 - Thank you for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI183: Nickel Short Squeeze & Trend Following in an Unstable World ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and rounding off our conversation with interesting and somewhat provocative tweets from Jerry.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in Ukraine
- The recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LME
- Tips and tricks to grow as a trend follower
- How to develop a good trend following system
- How to manage trailing stops
- How Jerry managed his short Russian stock position
- What Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:40 - Summary of the week
08:03 - What happened this week with nickel trading
14:53 - Q1, Josh: Any tips and tricks for Trend Following investing and ETFs?
31:57 - Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?
37:11 - Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the financial zeitgeist going forward?
45:36 - Q4, FunnyMoney: Are trading stops intra-day or managed at the next day open?
49:25 - What happens if you stop doing trend following research
57:00 - Tweets from Jerry
01:20:43 - Performance overview
01:21:49 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
- LINK: From VW to JPMorgan, the Unlikely Cast Behind Nickel’s Big Squeeze
- Link: Nickel Short Squeeze & Exchange safeguards explained
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO05: Better than Alpha ft. Chris Schelling
In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the risk of manager selection.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How are assets managed in the private space vs institutional space
- Biases in asset allocation and how to overcome them.
- Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategies
- Due diligence and things to avoid in the process
- The risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager.
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Chris Schelling on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:23 - About Chris’s background and his role at Venturi
12:45 - Disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard
17:54 - How the industry has evolved over the years
21:56 - Is private equity less risky?
23:43 - Is liquidity being more or less valued as it should be?
27:39 - Alpha, Beta and mapping strategies into categories
32:37 - Dispersion and persistence of returns
36:30 - How to set objectives and make decisions
40:14 - Overcoming biases
44:20 - Dealing with randomness
47:33 - Important skills managers need to have
54:29 - Timeframe for analysing a manager’s performance
57:46 - Things to avoid in the due diligence process
01:00:14 - Risks within manager selection
01:03:00 - How much experience do you need?
01:05:09 - Advice for working with asset allocation and manager selection
01:06:12 - Book recommendations
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI182: Trend Following in Times of Crises ft. Rob Carver
Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing assets and portfolios and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How the aweful situation in Ukraine affects trend following and volatility
- Rebalancing strategies within your portfolio
- The advantage of systematizing your trading
- When I sat down with the founds of AHL at Abbey Road Studios
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:15 - Update on markets
05:50 - What has caught attention and review on performance
27:08 - Status on Rob’s book
29:27 - Q1, Harry: What might next frontier be that seems silly today, but common sense later? Who's the next David Harding?
34:04 - Q2, Ravi: What are the implications to the markets and the wider global economy?
39:00 - Q3, Zoran: How do you navigate through such events (war in Ukraine) as a systematic investor?
46:00 - Q4, Richard: If trend following ever became overcrowded, could you identify it and would you take any action?
51:55 - Q5, Y: Should traders rely on the experience of past wars/conflicts or is this time different?
55:31 - Q6, Emre: Any advice on rebalancing my assets and portfolio?
01:02:35 - Q7, Gene: How do you and your guests reason about the timing of your trades?
01:08:03 - Q8, Akul: Why not dynamically change the allocations to different speeds of momentum?
01:14:32 - Q9, Zach: Is there a way to add trend following volatility instruments?
01:18:53 - Q10, Carl: How to rebalance between multiple strategies?
01:22:12 - Thank you for listening, and whats coming up next
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO04: Insights from the Queens Bank CIO ft. Alan Higgins
On today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Alan Higgins, the CIO and Chief Market Strategise of Coutts UK, also known as the Queens Bank, to discuss sound ways to invest in today’s environment, Alan’s interest at an early age in how to earn a risk premium, being a 60/40 investor and how the strategy will evolve, asset management vs. wealth management, distressed debt investing, behavioural biases, inflation, equity and interest rates, as well as the Yale Approach finishing off with some book recommendations on asset allocation and investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decade
- The surprise of markets ability to trend
- The value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enough
- Insights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel Lawson
- Why this time feels different
- Lessons from the 1987 Crash
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Alan Higgins on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:05 - Alan’s background and current role
04:44 - Risk premium and fixed income
24:33 - Setbacks and drawdowns
26:45 - Inflation
35:06 - Interest rates, bonds and dividends
43:22 - Asset allocation and portfolio construction
46:18 - Alan’s role at Eighteen48 Partners
48:33 - David Swensen and the Yale Approach
50:15 - Risks of private equity strategies
52:16 - Good vs. bad investment processes
55:00 - Managing investment teams
56:52 - Book recommendations
01:01:06 - Summary by Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI181: The Power of Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the power of Trend Following during periods of heightened uncertainty, Trend Following applied to the ESG space, how endogenous price shocks cause longer-term trends, the new Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report, shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term, and how ‘buy the dip’ investors are likely unprepared for sustained underperformance in stocks.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why now might be the best time to be invested in Trend Following strategies
- How systematic investing can be applied to the ESG space
- The cause of longer-term price trends
- The Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report
- The best lookback period for Trend Following models
- The need to diversify away from the ‘buy the dip’ mentality
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:49 – Macro recap from Niels
06:40 – Weekly review of performance
16:35 – Thoughts on Niels, Rich & Jerrys’ LinkedIn conversation with Harold De Boer of Transtrend
23:16 – Q1; Frank : How do you see Trend Following strategies fitting into the ESG space?
31:43 – Why we developed the Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report
51:55 – Q2; Steve : What else causes a long price trend if endogenous shocks are the initial cause?
01:09:39 – Shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term Trend Following
01:15:11 – The power of Trend Following during this period of heightened uncertainty
01:20:14 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO03: Lessons from a $25 billion CIO ft. Elizabeth Burton
Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulties in the manager selection process, and how to simplify complex ideas in order to communicate more efficiently.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The outlook for inflation
- Achieving high performance consistently
- How to re-allocate a portfolio accordingly
- Mean variance optimisation
- Whether this time is different
- Selecting the right manager
- Simplifying complexity for better understanding
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:30 - Elizabeth’s background and history in the investment world
04:55 - Elizabeth’s perspective on today’s markets
06:52 - Managing a public fund versus a private fund
08:14 - Performing above expectations
09:38 - The current outlook for inflation
11:31 - How to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation
13:57 - Fixed income versus real assets
14:51 - Categorising asset classes effectively
19:56 - The limits of mean variance optimisation
21:59 - Using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making
24:09 - Whether this time really is different
25:25 - Difficulties in the manager selection process
28:35 - Choosing between macro and systematic investors
30:08 - The pitfalls of investing with macro traders
32:40 - Investing in a manager who includes crypto in their portfolio
34:34 - Allocating between systematic and discretionary managers
36:45 - How to screen for a good money manager
40:44 - How to respond when a manager is underperforming
43:48 - Process over outcome
47:04 - Working with consultants
52:27 - Lessons from a leadership coach
57:00 - Simplifying complex ideas for better communication
01:00:28 -Advice for aspiring allocators
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI180: Data Versus Stories & The "Moscow Rules" ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How Trend Following differs to momentum
- Avoiding the need to make predictions
- The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies
- ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance
- The similarities between Trend Following and options
- How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’
- Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients
- The “Moscow Rules"
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:02 – Macro recap from Niels
04:39 – Weekly review of performance
23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?
28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk
42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?
47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum
01:00:58 – Molecules of prices
01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow Rules’
01:15:00 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:52 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO02: Properly Diversifying a $1.6Trillion Portfolio ft. Sebastien Page
Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of treasury bonds, lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams, achieving a state of ‘flow’, and how to simplify complex financial topics.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Ever-changing market correlations
- Strategic asset allocation
- Responding to interest rate changes
- Achieving utility maximisation
- Mean variance analysis
- Portfolio diversification
- Treasury bonds
- High performance teams
- Simplifying complexity
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn & read his book.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry
07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about
09:39 - Current view on the markets
13:37 - How to position portfolios for the year ahead and beyond
18:41 - The current outlook for equities and the sectors within
19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment
24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets
27:04 - Approaches to strategic asset allocation
33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation
37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis
41:49 - Using scenario analysis
47:41 - Distributions during different market regimes
55:12 - How to properly diversify a portfolio
58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds
01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams
01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’
01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
SI179: A New Golden Era for Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series, and why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How central bank signalling affects risk appetite around the world
- How Trend Following might perform in a rising interest rate environment
- Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio
- How managed futures can help investor throughout ever-changing markets
- The viability of the 60 /40 portfolio going forward
- Why a new golden era for Trend Following might be emerging
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:36 - Macro recap from Niels
05:29 - Weekly review of returns
09:55 - How the change of tone from central banks affects the markets
18:29 - Trend Following in rising interest rate environment
25:19 - Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio
36:12 - The future of the 60 / 40 portfolio
46:53 - Some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s Allocator Series
52:43 - Why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following
01:01:56 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO01: Adapting to Market Cycles ft. Phil Huber
Alan Dunne is joined today by Phil Huber, in the first of our new Allocator Series, to discuss the education gap that needs to be filled regarding efficient capital allocation, the typical clients and types of portfolios that Phil deals with, adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles, defining ‘alternative investments’, the extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed, traditional versus alternative investments, the challenges of manager selection, cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator, and how to manage difficult conversations with clients.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Better education around capital allocation
- Allocating capital throughout various market cycles
- How to define an ‘alternative investment’
- How actively we should manage a portfolio
- Traditional versus alternative investments
- The difficulties in the manager selection process
- Being a great behavioural investor as an allocator
- Difficult conversations with clients
- Advice for aspiring capital allocators
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Phil on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:44 - How 2022 has been for allocators so far
03:13 - Phil Huber’s journey into investing
05:46 - Why Phil wrote a book on capital allocation
09:00 - The typical clients, and types of portfolios that Phil deals with
12:07 - The 60 / 40 portfolio and how it became so popular
18:49 - Adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles
22:37 - Defining ‘alternative investments’
30:27 - Choosing which strategies to invest in, and when to choose these strategies
37:45 - The extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed
39:36 - Traditional versus alternative investments
40:04 - The challenges of manager selection
49:51 - Cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator
53:09 - The importance of courage
54:55 - Managing difficult conversations with clients
01:01:68 -Advice for aspiring asset allocators
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
SI178: Value Investing vs Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the importance of hanging on to your outlier winners, value investing versus trend following, the optimum number of entry & signals per trade, the need to redefine ‘safe assets’, Jerry & Richard Brennans’ thoughts on Howard Marks’ remarks about Trend Following, risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio, the unpredictability of endogenous outliers, and deconstructing the old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Letting winners run and cutting losses early
- Using 1 entry signal and 1 exit signal per trade versus multiple signals
- Redefining what are typically known as ‘safe assets’
- Howard Marks’ opinion on following price
- Achieving effective risk parity within a portfolio
- How endogenous outliers are hard to predict
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:44 – Macro recap from Niels
05:24 – Weekly review of performance
11:51 – Jerry & Rich’s thoughts on Howard Mark’s opinion of Trend Following
24:46 – Why exit rules might be harder to create than entry rules
43:45 – Risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio
51:03 – The unpredictability of endogenous outliers
01:10:08 – The old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’
01:13:54 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:01 A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL10: Why We All Need Volatility ft. Cem Karsan
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How market behaviour is often intertwined
- Why Cem chose to manage outside capital
- The thinking behind institutional market moves
- How the global pandemic affected markets
- Dealer flows
- Feedback loops
- Delta hedging
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:17 - Cem’s background, and current work
19:18 - The decision to manage outside money
24:06 - The trades that institutions like to make
30:22 - Feedback loops within markets
34:17 - The dynamic between futures and options
51:15 - Using Econophysics to find hedging methods
53:40 - Building various volatility models and research using toy models
57:05 - Approaches to Delta hedging
01:00:11 -Changes to qualitative features of overnight indices
01:03:12 -Investment products on the VIX and effects on the S&P 500
01:10:09 -The feedback loop between inflation, deflation and central bank rate policies
01:20:01 -Whether or not there is an asymmetry between deflation and inflation risk
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI177: The Value of Price ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Central bank policies and their effects on Trend Following performance
- The benefits of having multiple entries and exits across different timeframes
- Howard Marks’ recent thoughts on trading price action only
- The status of the commodity markets
- Hedges against inflation
- Creating the perfect portfolio using Trend Following
- Trend Following versus ‘trend chasing’
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:05 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:36 – Macro recap from Niels
06:22 – Weekly review of performance
15:10 – Q1; Zack : Has there been any research into how systematic investing improves ones performance over discretionary investing?
41:24 – Making predictions on commodities and inflation
50:27 – How Fed policy affects the Trend Following environment
01:04:18 – The re-emergence of longer-term terms
01:13:43 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL09: The Magical Properties of Money ft. David Orrell
Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How quantum physics relates to financial markets
- The mechanics behind price impacts
- David’s new book, coming out soon
- The magical characteristics of money
- The power and unpredictability of sentiment
- Weather and how it relates to financial markets
- Central bank money creation and how effective it can be
- Cognitive interference
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:54 - Can you give us some conclusions from the research you’ve done on weather forecasting?
04:33 - Is the notion of the economic system as being something that’s mechanistic and can be controlled flawed, and if so, how?
07:12 - Do you look at different economic models and aggregate the data?
12:46 - Is there a way to limit the momentum effects of passive investing on the markets?
17:41 - Can you explain how quantum physics relates to financial markets?
23:15 - Can you give a couple of examples of cognitive interference?
28:00 - Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?
42:28 - Can you talk about your new book, and what the title means?
45:24 -Does Modern Monetary Theory relate to the quantum physics analogy of something being created from nothing?
52:30 - Do you believe that money creation by central banks is unsustainable?
57:28 - Would you say that your work implies that minor tweaks to the framework are inadequate when it comes to the economy and investing?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI176: The Origin of Outliers ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Spotting patterns among previous outliers
- Simplicity over complexity
- How little the news really moves markets
- Professional Trend Following versus 'Trend Trading'
- The ability of Trend Following models to automatically reduce open risk during drawdowns
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:19 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:41 – Macro recap from Niels
04:13 – Weekly review of performance
11:14 – Q1; Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier trade?
17:22 – Q2; James: Do you treat correlated markets as individual markets or group them together?
21:24 – Q3; Adam: One system has a better average performance when looking at the backtest, and another system has a worse average performance in its backtest while having a large outlier, making its overall returns higher. Which system is better?
24:14 – Q4; Irving: How can I trade a 100 markets as an individual investor with capital limitations?
29:07 – Q5; James: How do you approach correlation risk management?
32:39 – The differences between Trend Following and the more common term ‘Trend Trading’
38:24 – Expanding on the theme of hunting for outliers, and how Jean Phillipe Bouchard’s research was useful in understanding the nature of outliers
01:01:53 – Efficient market hypothesis versus adaptive market hypothesis
01:22:03 – What importance does it have that we’re changing the narrative around Trend Following?
01:25:32 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL08: Adaptation To Change ft. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Co-Founder & Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, to discuss how news drive price action, and some of the science behind the large price movements, how we should think about adapting to changing dynamics such as correlations, Jean-Philippe’s background in physics and journey into finance, the effectiveness of the Bloomberg terminal, using dimensional analysis for research purposes, the inelastic market hypothesis, differentiating yourself as a Trend Follower, and the connection between volatility strategies and high frequency data.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The extent to which news drives price action
- How to look at ever-changing market dynamics, such as correlations
- Jean-Philippe's journey into finance
- The reliability of the Bloomberg terminal
- Dimensional analysis
- The inelastic market hypothesis
- Standing out in the Systematic Investor space
- Volatility strategies and if they have any connection to high-frequency data
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Jean-Philippe on LinkedIn.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:38 - What area of physics did you work in, and how did you come into finance?
05:04 - Can you elaborate the paper you worked on, where you where you investigated the endogeneity of large price moves?
15:24 - How timely do you consider the Bloomberg feed to be? Is it quick enough?
19:18 - How do we stitch together the two ideas of micro market data
28:20 - Do you the believe in the research that is carried out using dimensional analysis?
32:58 - Do you think that the inelastic market hypothesis was driven by flows into passive vehicles?
37:13 - Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?
40:13 - Can you tell us about your journey so far with CFM?
50:21 - Do you still do Trend Following, and if so, how do you do it different from a standard Trend Follower?
52:08 - If you kill the beta in a Trend Following program, do you lose the convexity?
52:38 - What’s the relation between volatility and higher-frequency momentum systems, in your view?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI175: A Winning Approach to Risk ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the different ways that Trend Following is perceived by investors, the optimum amount of positions to trade at once, rating the riskiness of various investment strategies, Trend Following on the VIX, suitable risk amounts per market, what to do with the free cash in your futures account, if Trend Followers pyramid positions, trading CFDs and dealing with transaction costs, and the best lookback period when measuring correlations.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The perception of Trend Following among various types of investors
- How many positions to trade at once
- The ‘riskiness’ of various investment strategies
- Combining Trend Following and Volatility strategies
- Risk-per-futures contract
- How much cash to keep on the sidelines and what to do with it
- Pyramiding positions
- CFD trading and navigating commissions
- Measuring correlations effectively
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:24 - A huge thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
04:47 - Macro recap from Niels
08:17 - Weekly review of returns
11:01 - How has your new approach been working out, Rob?
19:33 - Q1; John: How should I approach risk-per-contract?
27:41 - Q2; Patrick: What is your opinion on using a fixed percentage of free-cash balance?
34:30 - Q3; Frederick: How do professional Trend Followers pyramid into a position?
46:24 - Q4; Michael: Which full-size contract would you say is a ‘must-have’?
01:01:19 - Q5; Rene: When it comes to trading CFDs, how can I deal with changing transaction fee percentages?
01:09:55 - Q6; Michael: Do you have any advice for a 34-year old who wants to enter the managed futures industry? Has Rob ever considered starting his own fund?
01:15:52 - Q7; James: How far back should we look when measuring correlations?
01:23:27 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL07: Participate & Protect ft. Dave Dredge
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Dave Dredge, to discuss how long-volatility strategies can improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the concept of ‘participate and protect’, the importance of understanding why compounding is the ultimate goal, the ‘always good weather’ portfolio, trading Bitcoin volatility, being a ‘value buyer’ of volatility, mechanisms for taking profits, and how to size portfolio allocations properly.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio
- Dave’s concept of ‘participate and protect’
- The importance of compounding
- Dave’s ‘always good weather’ portfolio
- Long-volatility Bitcoin strategies
- Value investing in the volatility space
- Methods for taking profits
- Sizing portfolio allocations
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Dave on LinkedIn.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:01 - How did you end up in the long-volatility sector?
04:55 - How options used to be considered as a redundant trading method
07:53 - Do you have any idea why the Bitcoin skew is so high and flat?
08:56 - What does it mean when you say you consider yourself a value-buyer of volatility?
10:15 - Do you have any notion how to mix the various positions you warehouse?
15:46 - How do you source good ideas, and has living in Singapore given you an edge for this?
27:12 - Can you talk about the Taliban’s use of the ‘Sandpile Theory’?
33:13 - Are there more opportunities for you globally now, then there used to be?
40:51 - What are your mechanisms for taking profits?
47:19 - What’s your view on paying for convexity in your positions?
51:13 - Do you engage in skew trades?
52:41 - How do you think about low-vol?
55:49 - How do you size allocations to your long-vol strategy?
01:01:49 - Closing thoughts from Dave?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI174: The Future of Trend Following ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss what the future could look like without central bank liquidity being pumped into the markets, macro versus quantitative trading approaches, how to avoid crowded strategies, some post analysis of a trend following research paper, whether CTAs are being gamed by other participants, analysing the various methods of price trend measurements, what may have caused a more difficult trading environment for Trend Following strategies in the 2010s, and the economic factors that lead to great periods for Trend Following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- What markets could look like without Federal Reserve liquidity injections
- Macro versus quantitative approaches
- Avoiding crowded strategies
- What it was like to trade through 2018
- How market participants may try to game Trend Followers
- Measuring the strength of price trends
- Reviewing the performance of Trend Following during the 2010s
- Which economic factors could drive strong Trend Following performance
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:58 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes02:34 - Macro recap from Niels
05:02 - Weekly review of returns
12:22 - Q1: Brett; How do you define a drawdown?
13:48 - Alan, what is your background and path to the CTA industry?
19:32 - Announcement of new Top Traders Unplugged ‘Allocator’ series
20:49 - What inspired you to write your highly-regarded paper on Trend Following?
01:04:08 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL06: Finding True Value in the World of Volatility ft. Benn Eifert
On today’s episode, Hari Krishnan is joined today by Benn Eifert, to discuss running a volatility fund, the benefits that Benn gets from using Twitter, how to effectively serve clients as a volatility trader, the drawbacks of hedging via ETFs, monitoring market flows, the popularity of short-dated options, implied volatility versus realised volatility, how correlations change over time, balancing family-life with managing a fund, and the new normalisation of working from home.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- A behind the scenes look at running a volatility fund
- How to use Twitter as an investor
- Bringing value to clients as a volatility trader
- Hedging via ETFs
- Market flows
- Options
- Implied volatility
- Finding a good work & life balance
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Benn on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:20 - How did you end up running a Volatility fund?
06:39 - Why did you join a Vol fund instead of a Global Macro fund?
09:30 - What do you gain from being on Twitter?
11:50 - Explain some of the methods behind how you serve your clients
16:19 - What are some of the weaknesses of hedging via ETF products?
19:44 - Do you find a lot of value in monitoring the flows into various markets?
23:34 - Why is it people are so eager to sell shorter-dated options?
26:17 - How do you counter the argument that it’s a good idea to write calls against short positions?
30:05 - What are some of the issues with looking at implied volatility versus realised volatility?
33:13 - What challenges do you face as a Volatility pro, when it comes to the extreme moves up and down?
37:37 - What do you do when you expect large volatility but the direction is unknown?
40:30 - How would you react if you knew that there was a huge amount of open interest, 5% down in the S&P, with a few weeks to go?
42:52 - Do you have any thoughts on the recent dislocation between the VIX and the S&P 500?
46:04 - What are the changes in dispersion dynamics and implied correlations that you’ve noticed over the years?
55:03 - Is it fair to say that if you’re long enough Volatility, and there’s a large enough systemic shock, then you’re going to make money?
56:48 - Do you have anything to say about the 10-year note futures options surface? Are there persistent distortions there?
59:25 - If you see a distortion in the skew, how do you approach it?
01:02:56 - Balancing family life and managing a fund
01:05:12 - The recent legitimisation of working from home
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI173: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part Two ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich
Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The reasons for trading different markets
- Why Trend Following firms should trade single stocks
- The optimum amount of systems to run at the same time
- Diversification across markets versus across systems
- Skewness
- How to define outliers
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:20 - Would you rather trade 100 markets with 1 system, using 10 different timeframes? or would you rather trade 50 markets, using 3 different systems, using 5 different timeframes?
08:33 - How much ‘positive skew’ do we need?
27:04 - Diversification as a means of risk control, versus as a method of finding outliers
36:14 - Defining outliers and some thoughts on the number of expected outliers per year
45:03 - Can be momentum traders be placed in the same category as Trend Followers?
48:13 - Should we care that bubbles exist, or just enjoy the profitable trends? Have the markets gotten any smarter over the years?
52:52 - How Trend Following and Systematic Investing narratives & terms have changed over the years
01:12:55 - A review of our best and worst markets to trade during 2021
01:16:10 - The lessons we learned from 2021, the biggest surprises, and our most regrettable decision from the year
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU119: The Secret to becoming Richer, Wiser, Happier ft. William Green
What if there was one or two things that, above all, the best investors of all time have in common? Would you be interested to know what this is? Our special guest today, William Green, has written about this in his new book, called ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier’, where he draws upon his past interviews with over forty of the most successful investors of all time, to find out some of the ingredients that made them stand out. These elite group include Sir John Templeton, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Jack Bogle, Ed Thorp, and Joel Greenblatt. Join us as we uncover what it takes to be a truly successful investor, the benefits of deferred gratification, why being humble can lead to solid long-term returns, and the beauty of combining ‘man and machine’ to create a profitable, systematic approach to the markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The connection between philosophy and investing
- Richard’s new book, ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier’
- The secrets behind the successful business model of Costco and Amazon
- The benefits of deferred gratification
- Why Ray Dalio likes to combine ‘man & machine’ and use systematic approaches
- Why being humble can lead to great long-term returns
- How to invest for the long-term, in a short-term world
- The ingredients that made some of the most famous investors of all-time so reputable
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow William on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI172: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part One ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich
We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Some of the reasons for being a systematic investor
- The case for Trend Following as the only strategy in your portfolio
- Tips for effective diversification
- Why you should be Hunting Outliers
- How Trend Following performance might look like in the future
- If and when you should override your trading rules
- Staying ready for unexpected shocks in the markets
- Gauging the effectiveness of adjustments to a system
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:42 - ‘Has classical Trend Following returned to peak performance’?
05:16 - How do you see the longer-term performance of Trend Following heading?
08:02 - Why not Trend Following as the main, or perhaps only, component of a portfolio?
28:01 - When should you manually override your trading system?
46:56 - How to setup a system to deal with unexpected volatility
01:03:49 - How to know if your research changes are actually improvements
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU118: TRILLIONS...The Passive Revolution ft. Robin Wigglesworth
Passive & quantitative investing has grown exponentially over the years and is now responsible for trillions of dollars of investors’ capital. How has this affected the world of active money-management, and what does the rise of passive investing mean for the investment world overall? Well, it turns out that renown Financial Times Global Finance correspondent, Robin Wigglesworth, has a great new book out about passive investing called ‘Trillions’, and I couldn’t resist the temptation to invite him on to the show to talk about the book, and other subjects related to investing and trading. Enjoy this conversation as we cover how the financial crisis of 2008 affected investors' relationship to the markets, the innovators behind the rise of passive investing, Tesla’s entry into the S&P 500, and Robin’s thoughts on Trend Following strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How journalism and financial media has changed in the last 15 years
- Why the rise of passive investing plays such an important part of the history of finance
- The big players behind the rise of passive investing
- The first index fund
- The rise of BlackRock
- The merits of passive and active investing
- How investors might react to a prolonged bear market
- The benefits of quantitative investing strategies
- Why systematic investing is often criticised so heavily
- Some of Robins’ thoughts on Trend Following
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Robin on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI171: Machine Learning - Pros & Cons ft. Hari Krishnan
Today we’re joined by special guest, Hari Krishnan, to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of machine learning-based trading strategies, successful funds that utilizes machine learning investment techniques, defining machine learning and comparing it with artificial intelligence, how Trend Following can best integrated with machine learning, the history of machine learning in the investment world, and we also answer some of your questions, such as how to select signals for a smaller trading account.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The reasons for and against machine learning trading strategies
- If any funds have successfully implemented machine learning
- What defines machine learning
- The history behind machine learning-based trading styles
- How to manage smaller trading accounts, when it comes to signal selection
- How to time the entry into trend following funds
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:25 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes02:38 - Macro recap from Niels
04:52 - Weekly review of returns
09:58 - Q1; Daniel: How do I choose which signals to take when too many arise for a small account?
15:21 - Q2; Mervin: Do you have any advice for finding low-risk entry points into new TF funds?
25:31 - The history of machine learning and how to define it properly
44:24 - How can machine learning be profitable during rare market moves when the data sample size for these moves is so small?
48:41 - Which specific areas of Trend Following are more suited to Trend Following? How risky is it to blindly follow a machine learning strategy?
54:20 - Do you classify machine learning as a form of artificial intelligence?
55:55 - Have you come across any machine learning funds that have done well for a reasonably long period of time?
01:00:48 - Tell us about the recent experiment that Man Group carried out using Machine Learning to select a perfect (and sustainable) Christmas dinner?
01:04:44 - Announcement of future special Top Traders Unplugged episodes hosted by Hari Krishnan, as well as special episodes of the Systematic Investor featuring all the usual co-hosts over Christmas
01:06:18 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI170: 'Don’t Try This At Home' ft. Rob Carver
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how to approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade, mean reversion trading strategies, how to invest in globally diversified systematic Trend Following CTAs, ‘buying the dip’ in the S&P 500, static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts, and the inclusion of more obscure markets into a Trend Following system.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How to effectively approach position-sizing
- Some methods for investing in Trend Following CTAs
- If 'buying the dip' in the S&P 500 is a good strategy
- Portfolio optimisation
- Trading lesser-known markets
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:12 - A big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:23 - Macro recap from Niels
04:24 - Weekly review of returns
09:12 - How do you approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade?
18:42 - Check out my new blog post: How to Invest with the Best
20:01 - Q1 & Q2; Abbey: Should I switch to a mean-reversion strategy when my Trend Following strategy is in a downtrend? Is buying the dip in Trend Following funds an accepted investment strategy, and can I also do this with the S&P 500?
32:28 - Rob, what was it like meeting Campbell Harvey for the first time?
42:08 - Static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts
01:09:41 - How does your backtest look before and after using the methodologies just described?
01:13:06 - What are some of the more obscure markets you can now trade with this newer approach, Rob?
01:20:11 - Benchmark performance update
01:21:09 - This week, we record the first of our 2-part end of year special, featuring all of my regular co-hosts on the Systematic Investor Podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU117: Strategic Risk Management ft. Cam Harvey & Rob Carver
How should you protect your portfolio against large losses, but without giving up its upside potential? To answer this question, and many more, I invited back professor of finance at Duke University, Campbell Harvey to the show. I also thought it would be fitting if Rob Carver, could also join us, considering Rob and Cam used to work together at Man AHL. Enjoy the show as we discuss how to navigate a crisis in the markets, and what to expect in terms of the global outlook for investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How to manage a portfolio through a crisis
- The motivation behind writing his new book
- Various methods of portfolio protection
- Diversification within Trend Following systems
- Volatility targeting and why it can be a powerful tool
- The journey of volatility going from a measure to an input
- Drawdowns as an important metric to monitor
- Timing portfolio rebalances effectively
- The 60 / 40 portfolio, diversification, and inflation
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Cam on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI169: Buying the Dip ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why volatility might not always mean that a model is risky
- The best way to measure true risk
- How to 'buy the dip'
- What Richard thinks about risk
- The relationship between volatility and risk
- Convergent versus divergent trading
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:58 – Announcement of very special Systematic Investor episodes over Christmas featuring Niels, Jerry, Moritz, Rob & Rich together for the first time
02:23 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:57 – Macro recap from Niels
06:04 – Weekly review of performance
16:19 – Drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in the Trend Following strategies
23:10 – Check out our upcoming midweek-episode with guests Cam Harvey and Rob Carver
24:25 – How Richard thinks about ‘risk’
43:41 – The relationship between volatility and risk
59:20 – Convergence versus divergence
01:06:51 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU116: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio ft. Steve Foerster
If we could gather all of the famous investing pioneers from world history into one room and ask them to build the perfect portfolio, what would it look like? Well Steve Foerster and his co-author (and previous guest on the show) Andrew Lo, set out to do just that, with their new book called 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio'. I thought I'd invite Steve onto the show to discuss his new book, go through some of the 'golden threads' of investing that he came across, his journey in the world of finance, and of course, get his opinion on how close Trend Following is to 'the Perfect Portfolio'.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Steve's journey to becoming a Professor of Finance and how he ended up co-authoring a book with Professor Andrew Lo
- Some of the concepts from the legendary financial experts they interviewed for the book
- How closely linked the academic world of finance really is
- About some of the most important findings in investment research over the decades
- About the "untold" story of an early 20th-century mathematician, Louis Bachelier
- Harry Markowitz' story
- What Eugene Fama's Perfect Portfolio looks like
- About William Sharpe and his now famous 'Sharpe Ratio'
- How the phrase 'beta' came about
- How computers enabled researchers to access deeper insights into the world of investing
- About the debate between active and passive investing
- Whether volatility should still be considered as a measure of risk
- About the progression of volatility data into today's investment models
- About the story of Eugene Fama
- How Steve views the question of 'what is the perfect portfolio?'
- Whether Steve considers Trend Following investing as, essentially, a perfect portfolio
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI168: The Trading Secrets of Trend Followers ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest returns over time.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Overcoming the uncertainty in markets
- When to override your system, if ever
- Balancing between difference asset classes
- The need to trade non-correlated assets
- Why longer-term systems achieve higher win percentages
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:03 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:26 – Macro recap from Niels
03:50 – Weekly review of performance
09:12 – Q1; Glen: Can you give me some feedback on my equities Trend Following system?
18:00 – Discussion on Central bank tapering
42:15 – Clearing up some of the current discourse around inflation
55:19 – Discussion on overriding models
01:07:52 – Discussion on overriding models
01:11:46 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL05: Maintaining Liquidity & Cash Efficiency ft. Zed Francis
Jason Buck is joined today by Zed Francis to discuss the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, achieving a negative a correlation to equities during market downturns, what Zed calls the ‘3 trading levers’, profiting from institutional volatility players, problems with some long-volatility strategies, when a discretionary approach is needed, how to adjust a portfolio if volatility is persisting, some thoughts on the VIX ETF, helping clients to achieve capital efficient accounts, maintaining liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff, and the deeper insight into the global macro landscape that being a volatility expert gives you.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The benefits of volatility strategies to a portfolio
- How to profit from large stock market selloffs
- Some of Zed Francis’s unique approaches to volatility trading
- Profiting from institutional volatility traders
- When to apply a discretionary approach
- The VIX ETF
- Helping clients to be cash efficient in their portfolios
- The need for liquidity during large market moves
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:41 - Why should somebody add volatility or tail-risk strategies into their portfolio?
03:10 - Seeking a negative correlation to equities
06:16 - Can you explain what you call your ‘3 trading levers’?
08:11 - Can you breakdown your approach to combining ‘long gamma’ and ‘short Vega’?
13:40 - Do you aim to profit off institutional volatility sellers?
15:16 - Tell us about the short-vega side of your approach?
28:34 - The problems with some common long-volatility strategies?
36:24 - How do you think about the ratio between your long-gamma trades and your short-Vega trades?
38:02 - Do you want to explain your ‘Price is Right’ gameshow anology for long gamma strategies?
40:57 - Do you think that a discretionary approach is always needed at times?
50:27 - How do you adjust if volatility persists longer-term?
55:36 - What are your thoughts on the VIX?
57:50 - How to help clients to achieve capital efficient accounts?
59:37 - How do you maintain capital efficient overlays and also maintain liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff?
1:04:18 - Does being a volatility expert give you a deeper insight into the global macro landscape?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI167: The Road to Profits is Bumpy ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a broad universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns, but hidden risks, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- A systematic approach to trading single stocks
- Why you should trade a broad universe of assets
- Why the best thing to do is often the hardest thing to do as investors
- Why volatility is our friend, especially when it's directional
- How to manage dividends as a Trend Following trader
- The best methods of diversification
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:41 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes02:03 - Macro recap from Niels
03:10 - Weekly review of returns
06:44 - Q1; Robert: How does Jerry select his single stocks to trade?
16:27 - Q2; Brian: What does Jerry do with the dividends from the singles stocks he trades?
20:20 - Discussion on recent New York Times article, ‘The Risk-Return Trade-Off Is Phony’
31:34 - Trend Following and asset selection
37:40 - Why the right thing to do is often the hardest thing to do
45:36 - The need for asymmetry rather than low-volatility
48:48 - Diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying TF look-back periods
57:57 - How Trend Following thrives during inflationary environments
01:01:10 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL04: Profiting from Short-Term Volatility ft. Bastian Bolesta
Special guest, Bastian Bolesta, joins Jason Buck today to discuss why volatility strategies should be added to our portfolios, how to keep improving as a trader while not over-optimising your systems, how recent large equity selloffs have affected Bastian’s approach to the markets, the average duration of his long volatility trades, how to weight recent data versus long-term data, trading VIX contracts intra-day, shorter-term Trend Following, momentum trading, mean-reversion strategies, and the cash efficiency of intraday models.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why we should be invested in volatility strategies
- Improving over time but not over-tinkering
- How much markets may have changed in recent years
- The average duration of volatility trades
- Recent data versus long-term data
- Shorter-term Trend Following
- The benefits of cash-efficiency within intraday models
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:09 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?
04:09 - How do you overcome the problem of getting better but not wanting to tinker too much?
11:03 - How has recent market behaviour affected your approach to volatility trading?
22:05 - What is the average duration of your long volatility trades?
28:02 - How do you weight recent data versus long-term data?
31:07 - How do you look at trading intra-day VIX contracts?
37:39 - What gave you the confidence to be able to execute short-term Trend Following?
48:58 - How do you approach momentum trading?
56:16 - Why do you take some of the long-sided trades during equity selloffs?
01:01:38 - Tell us about the mean-reverting products you deal with?
01:07:52 - Talk to us about the cash efficiency of intraday strategies
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI166: Riding the Waves of Volatility ft. Hari Krishnan
We’re joined by Hari Krishnan today, to discuss the ways in which Volatility strategies can complement Trend Following as a source of portfolio protection, how to manage expectations of investors, some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020, how to best protect yourself from large market selloffs, how to allocate between Trend Following and Volatility across different timeframes, and the possible effects of sustained inflation may have on volatility strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Complementing Trend Following portfolios with Volatility strategies
- Maintaining composure during different market environments
- The sharp selloffs of 2018 and 2020
- Sound approaches for re-allocating money at appropriate times
- The resilience of Trend Following
- Volatility strategies during long periods of sustained inflation
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:28 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes02:38 - Macro recap from Niels
05:11 - Weekly review of returns
11:09 - The ways in which Volatility strategies complement a Trend Following portfolio
21:33 - Managing investors’ expectations
27:57 - Some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020
29:44 - Look out for Hari’s new book
30:34 - How to protect yourself from large market selloffs
42:17 - How to allocate between different strategies across different timeframes
44:35 - The relative strength of Trend Following during flash crashes
54:55 - How the landscape and returns dispersion for volatility strategies looks like in 2021
58:06 - The possible effects of sustained inflation on volatility strategies
01:05:28 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL03: The Evolution of the VIX ft. Stefan Wintner
In today’s episode, Jason Buck is joined by Stefan Wintner of DUNN Capital, to discuss volatility as an asset class, the evolution of the VIX from its inception until now, some of the mechanics behind the VIX, the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500, some thoughts on ‘volatility relative-value’ trading, the reliability of the VVIX, building and running models during different market environments, thoughts on kurtosis and skew, and volatility as a necessary component for a large Trend Following firm.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Volatility as an asset class of its own
- The journey of the VIX from its early days until now
- Analysing the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500
- What’s known as volatility relative-value trading
- The usefulness of the VVIX
- Operating models during different market and economic environments
- Kurtosis and skew
- The need for Volatility strategies as part of a diversified investment portfolio
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:05 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?
04:48 - Do you consider Volatility to be an asset class of its own?
05:58 - What was it like during the early days of the VIX market?
08:28 - What is the VIX, and what is the calculation that goes into the VIX?
14:07 - Tell us a little bit about the relationship between the VIX and S&P 500
19:37 - How does volatility risk premium relate to other datasets you use?
25:03 - What is ‘volatility relative-value’ trading?
27:37 - How do you think about the ratio that you combine between the S&P 500 & the VIX?
30:31 - Is it true that if you see a spike in the VIX, you’ll look to take advantage via the front-month volatility in that spike?
33:29 - Do you think VVIX is a good measure for the volatility of volatility?
35:09 - How do you use options in a creative way in your portfolio?
37:22 - How do you identify and think about possible mispricings in the market?
40:40 - Do you try to track both the normal price and OTC prices?
42:00 - How do you approach building & running volatility models during different market environments?
47:22 - Describe what volatility traders experienced during the ‘volmaggedon’ of February 2018
55:06 - How did you trade through the ‘known risks’ 2020 election?
59:15 - How much can you rely on market history as a predictor for the future?
01:02:49 - Is it true you’re likely to experience long periods of flat to negative performance while waiting for those huge, profitable moves in volatility?
01:06:09 - How do you think about kurtosis and skew, and how they relate to other strategies?
01:08:56 - Do you view what you do as a necessary component of a large Trend Following firm?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI165: Responsible Investing as a Trend Follower ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The new credibility of cryptocurrencies
- Scaling into positions using various methods
- ESG investing as a Trend Following investor
- How to select the optimum markets to trade
- Trading single stocks
- Embracing creativity as a systematic investor
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:14 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes03:12 - Macro recap from Niels
06:45 - Weekly review of returns
15:04 - Niels: Has your opinion of cryptocurrencies changed since the launch of the new Bitcoin futures ETF was announced?
20:04 - Q1; Adam: What is your advice for scaling into positions?
28:18 - Q2; Brendan: Do Bitcoin cash-settled futures create a synthetic Bitcoin supply?
36:08 - How should futures traders approach climate change?
49:03 - Choosing which markets to trade
01:04:05 - Q3 & Q4; Michael: What are the benefits and drawbacks to trading single stocks? How do you come up with new ideas?
01:16:45 - Factor investing and thoughts on longer-term momentum strategies
01:21:46 - Benchmark performance update
01:23:02 - Next week, special guest Hari Krishnan joins us on the show
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL02: Past, Present, & Future Volatility ft. Noel Smith
Today Jason Buck is joined by Noel Smith in the second of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of ensemble investing, the predictability of market volatility, how certain market environments fool investors into thinking they are better than they really are, allocating between different strategies during different market environments, why nothing beats having ‘skin in the game’, balancing judgement calls versus algorithmic calls, pairs-trading VIX & bonds, determining when an asset is cheap or overpriced, and some thoughts on what might happen if markets enter a ‘stagflationary’ environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Ensemble investing and its benefits
- Whether market volatility can be predicted ahead of time
- The ways in which the markets can catch investors off-guard
- ‘Dialling’ into and out of strategies
- How Noel’s experience in prop trading and pit trading has helped him today
- Finding the balance between judgement calls and algorithmic signals
- Noel’s VIX and bonds pairs trade
- Assessing the current real value of an asset
- How to approach investing during a ‘stagflationary’ environment
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
Follow Noel on Twitter, LinkedIn, and via his website.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:06 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?
03:20 - Do you think that volatility is quite predictable around benign market periods?
04:12 - How do you apply your prop trading background to volatility strategies in general?
05:13 - Did the days of pit trading leaving a big impression on you?
06:28 - Why use ensembles?
07:33 - How do you allocate between strategies during different macro environments?
09:37 - How do you balance judgement calls versus algorithmic calls?
11:38 - How do you think about the timing of adding and removing volatility protection?
15:01 - Where did you come with the idea to pairs trade VIX and bonds?
19:28 - Is there a volatility risk premium?
21:14 - Tell us a little more about your ‘vol-arb’ strategy?
26:28 - How are you determining if something is cheap or overpriced?
27:53 - Do you put more weight on liquidity flow data as opposed to other fundamental data?
30:32 - Can you describe your ‘dispersion’ strategy and elaborate on dispersion trades for those who haven’t heard them?
34:30 - Can you describe your ‘dispersion’ strategy and elaborate on dispersion trades for those who haven’t heard them?
39:33 - How do you think about past, present and future volatility?
41:46 - How do you approach correlations across different timeframes?
43:24 - Dispersion trades seem to go in and out of fashion, do you feel that your strategies run dispersion trades when they’re popular only?
46:38 - Do you dial into and out of strategies rather than switching allocations?
48:11 - Tell us more about the ‘bond vol-arb’ strategy
51:01 - Tell us more about the ‘macro-bats’ strategy
57:42 - What do you think will happen if markets enter a stagflationary environment?
01:03:39 - How would you combine your ensemble investments into a wider portfolio?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI164: Compounding - The 8th Wonder of the World ft. Richard Brennan
This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How to stay on the right side of the effects of compounding
- How many strategies can be limited by the make-up of their previous versions
- The profitable & negative correlation of Trend Following to equities when stocks are falling
- The need to zoom-out when judging performance
- The terms 'ergodicity' and 'path dependency'
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:37 – A Thank you to Shane, our website developer, for his great work in creating the new Top Traders Unplugged website. We hope you all enjoy the new user interface
02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
03:02 – Macro recap from Niels
04:34 – Weekly review of performance
12:04 – Making money to make money, and some insights on the compounding returns
40:50 – How to judge different strategies accurately
44:04 – Explaining the term ‘ergodicity’
52:17 – The diversifying features of Trend Following and their negative correlation to stocks during market downturns
01:01:24 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
VOL01: The New Nature of Stock Market Movements ft. Hari Krishnan
Today Jason Buck is joined by Hari Krishnan in the first of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, why it can pay to avoid hedging when the crowd is already doing so, explaining the 'Put slingshot', how markets are different today from decades ago, protection against tail-risk, the psychology behind large markets sell-offs, and some thoughts on the effects of leverage on the markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The benefits of tail-risk hedges / adding volatility hedges to your portfolio
- The importance of avoiding group think (in hedging)
- Some thoughts on what is known as the ‘Put slingshot’
- The new nature of stock market movements
- The repricing of risk during fast downturns
- Tail-risk protection versus Trend Following
- How tail-risk protection can complement an existing allocation to Trend Following
- Some of the psychology and mechanisms behind large and sharp market moves
- How positioning and leverage end up creating challenging markets to trade in
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:59 - Why should somebody include volatility or tail risk into their portfolio?
04:35 - Do you think rolling option puts is a good hedging strategy?
07:47 - The tradeoffs between near-term and long-term option pricing
09:03 - Can you explain the differences between ‘Gamma’ and ‘Vega’ options profiles?
10:15 - What are your thoughts on rolling options?
15:05 - How do you think about the timing of adding and removing volatility protection?
18:27 - In your book you mention the ‘Sombrero Trade’, can you describe what this is?
21:54 - How risk becomes repriced during sharp selloffs
25:04 - Does tail-risk protection help long-term Trend Followers?
25:04 - Are you looking out for inflection points such as in March 2020, where everybody ran for the exits at the same time?
43:15 - What are your thoughts on the huge amounts of passive inflows to the markets and the inelasticity it creates?
49:08 - What about the those who say the Federal Reserve (the ‘Fed put’) is the ultimate protection and therefore no other protection is needed?
54:10 - How do you think about those funds who use ‘vol targeting’?
01:01:12 - How do you think about ETFs when it comes to ‘whales’ positioning?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI163: The Importance of Investment Narratives ft. Mark Rzepczynski
This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The future of Bitcoin
- How money managers can explain their approaches simply to clients
- Long, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performers
- Trend Following's incredible success over 6 decades
- The private equity world compared with systematic investing
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:54 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:49 – Macro recap from Niels
04:52 – Weekly review of performance
12:33 – Why storylines and narratives matter
52:42 – How effectively communicating what we do can be a challenge in any industry
55:54 – The strategies that tend that lend themselves easier to good narratives
01:06:55 – Some thoughts on the likelihood of upcoming stagflation
01:13:01 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:28 – Announcement of new and updated version of the Top Traders Unplugged website which is on the way, as well as a new series on the topic of volatility, hosted by recent guest, Jason Buck
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI162: Discussing The New Bitcoin Futures ETF ft. Moritz Seibert
We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance exam
- The SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETF
- How the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chains
- Our best performing assets of the year so far
- How Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparison
- Which timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:25 - A huge thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts
02:59 - Macro recap from Niels
05:51 - Weekly review of returns
11:00 - Niels: What’s been the year-to-date standout winner for you?
12:40 - Niels: How much of your performance has come from crypto, compared to other non—classical Trend Following assets?
24:45 - Niels: It takes money to money, true or false?
29:45 - Niels: After a big profit, the next trend following trade is more likely to be a loss, true or false?
33:21 - Niels: Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities, true or false?
34:32 - Niels: Volume and open interest are as important as price action, true or false?
36:16 - Niels: A trader should be willing to let profits turn into losses, true or false?
37:14 - Niels: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate a trade, true or false?
38:48 - Niels: It’s better to be an expert in one market, rather than try to trade ten or more markets, true or false?
40:10 - Niels: It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life, true or false?
40:56 - Niels: A gap-up is a good place to initiate, if an uptrend has started, true or false?
42:07 - Niels: All speculators die broke, true or false?
43:05 - Thoughts on the new Pro Shares Bitcoin ETF launching soon
45:58 - Niels: How did your model react to the recent crypto fall in prices, and do you think crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term trend following strategies?
45:58 - Niels: How do you think the average crypto expert views the global macro landscape?
55:58 - The drive towards ESG investing and its knock-on effects to current supply chains
01:15:12 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI161: Retaking the Turtle Trader Entrance Exam ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Favouring long or short positions
- How you can go broke taking small profits
- Reasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’
- The importance of down-time and vacations
- Whether we can rely on opinions of the crowd
- System diversification
- Why you should trade small
- The questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test today
- Avoiding trades due to gaps in price
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving your 5-star reviews in iTunes, and please share this podcast with a like-minded friend:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:19 - I share a hugely important story to my family, as we mark the 10-year anniversary of my son's Sudden Cardiac Arrest and our KidsHeart charity welcomes your support. For further information, contact us via: info@kidsheart.ch
08:17 - Weekly review of returns
12:00 - Jerry retakes the Original Entrance Exam for the Turtle Program:
13:08 - Question 1: One should favour long or short positions. Is that true or false?
14:56 - Question 2: One should know precisely when to liquidate if a profit occurs. True or false?
14:56 - Question 3: One should trade the same number of contracts in all markets. True or false?
16:08 - Question 4: If one has £100,000 to trade, one ought to risk £25,000 on every trade. True or false?
16:26 - Question 5: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?
16:34 - Question 6: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?
17:02 - Question 7: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate. True or false?
17:26 - Question 8: A gap up is a good place to initiate if an uptrend has started. True or false?
17:52 - Question 9: If you anticipate buy stops in the market, wait until they are finished, and buy a little higher than that. True or false?
19:29 - Question 10: Out of our 3 types of orders, market orders, stop orders, and resting, market orders cause the least skid. True or false?
20:34 - Question 11: The more bullish news you hear, and the more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue after a substantial uptrend. True or false?
21:02 - Question 12: The majority of traders are always wrong. True or false?
21:29 - Question 13: Trading bigger is an overall handicap on one’s trading performance. True or false?
21:57 - Question 14: Larger traders can muscle markets to their advantage. True or false?
22:15 - Question 15: Vacations are important for traders to keep the proper perspective. True or false?
23:16 - Question 16: Under-trading is almost never a problem. True or false?
23:47 - Question 17: Ideally, average profits should be about 3 or 4 times average losers . True or false?
24:07 - Question 18: Traders should be willing to let winners turn into losses . True or false?
24:45 - Question 19: A very high percentage of trades should be profits. True or false?
25:02 - Question 20: A trader should like to take losses. True or false?
25:53 - Question 21: It is especially relevant when the market is higher than it’s been in 4 and 13 weeks. True or false?
26:19 - Question 22: Needing and wanting money are good motivators for good trading. True or false?
26:36 - Question 23: Ones natural inclinations are good guides to decision making in trading. True or false?
28:01 - Question 24: Luck is an ingredient for successful trading in the long run. True or false?
28:46 - Question 25: When you’re Long, limit up is a good place to take a profit. True or false?
29:16 - Question 26: It takes money to make money. True or false?
30:21 - Question 27: It’s good to follow hunches in trading. True or false?
30:32 - Question 28: There are players in each market one should not trade against. True or false?
30:49 - Question 29: All speculators die broke. True or false?
31:51 - Question 30: The market can be understood better through social psychology rather than economics. True or false?
32:36 - Question 31: Taking a loss should be a difficult decision for traders. True or false?
32:55 - Question 32: After a big profit the next Trend Following trade is likely to be a loss. True or false?
33:32 - Question 33: Trends are not likely to persist. True or false?
34:55 - Question 34: Almost all information about a commodity is at least a little useful in helping to make decisions. True or false?
35:39 - Question 35: It’s better to be an expert in one market rather than try to trade 10 or more markets. True or false?
36:20 - Question 36: In a winning streak, total risk should rise dramatically. True or false?
36:57 - Question 37: Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities. True or false?
38:04 - Question 38: It’s important to know how much you are ahead or behind during a trading session. True or false?
38:33 - Question 39: A losing month is an indication of doing something wrong. True or false?
38:47 - Question 40: A losing week is an indication of doing something wrong. True or false?
38:55 - Question 41: The big money in trading is made when one can get long at the lows after a big downtrend. True or false?
39:10 - Question 42: It’s good to average down when buying. True or false?
39:28 - Question 43: After a long trend, the market requires more consolidation before a new trend starts. True or false?
40:43 - Question 44: It’s important to know what to do if trading commodities doesn’t succeed. True or false?
41:44 - Question 45: It’s not helpful to watch every quote in the market one trades. True or false?
42:32 - Question 46: It’s a good idea to put on or take a position all at once. True or false?
42:49 - Question 47: Diversification in commodities is always better than being in one or two markets. True or false?
43:07 - Question 48: If today’s profit or loss makes a significant difference to your net worth you’re over-trading. True or false?
43:40 - Question 49: A trader learns more from his losses than from his profits. True or false?
44:32 - Question 50: Except for commission and brokerage fees, execution costs for entering orders are minimal over the course of a year. True or false?
45:03 - Question 51: It’s easier to trade well than to trade poorly. True or false?
45:25 - Question 52: It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life. True or false?
46:10 - Question 53: Uptrends end when everyone gets bearish. True or false?
46:25 - Question 54: The more bullish news you hear, the less likely a market is break out to the upside. True or false?
47:11 - Question 55: For an off-floor trader, a long-term trade ought to last 3 or 4 weeks or less. True or false?
47:40 - Question 56: Others opinions of the markets are good to follow. True or false?
47:49 - Question 57: Volume and open interest are as important as price action. True or false?
48:39 - Question 58: Daily strength and weakness is a good guide for liquidating long term positions with big profits. True or false?
49:28 - Question 59: Off-floor traders should spread different markets of different market groups. True or false?
49:48 - Question 60: The more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue in the beginning of a trend. True or false?
50:11 - Question 61: Off-floor traders should not spread the same delivery month across different commodities. True or false?
50:20 - Question 62: Buying dips and selling rallies is a good strategy. True or false?
51:24 - Question 63: It’s important to take a profit most of the time. True or false?
52:04 - Niels: What one or two questions would you add to this test today?
55:53 - Jerry’s score results
55:57 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently
- How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness
- Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures
- How to raise AUM when starting a new firm
- The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin
- Adding parameters to a system
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes03:03 - Macro recap from Niels
05:43 - Weekly review of returns
12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks
21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system
26:11 - Q1; Matt: Has Rob ever considered using SpreadBetting to build a diversified portfolio instead of futures?
34:24 - Q2; Joel: How much investor money would you need if you were to start a firm today, and where would you find these investors?
38:23 - Thoughts on the US debt ceiling and the ‘platinum coin’ (check out this funny video by YouTube creator Remy)
46:58 - Rob’s new system adjustment which places constraints on positions based on leverage
55:56 - Some information on Rob Carver’s new book which is due to be released late 2022
59:36 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns
- Compounding wealth as a systematic investor
- How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times
- Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on
- How investment terms can often create communication barriers
- Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:25 – Macro recap from Niels
04:10 – Weekly review of performance
11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment manager
19:58 – Discussion on the topic of ‘skew’
42:44 – How the term ‘skew’ relates to other terms such as ‘convexity’ & ‘kurtosis’ and which terms are the most important for investors to focus on
56:33 – Some thoughts on what is referred to as ‘path dependency’
01:01:03 – How Trend Following can positively influence an investment portfolio
01:02:57 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone
- How to spot future star performers in advance
- Unconventional approaches to market correlations
- The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients
- Why investors tend to copy their peers
- Whether fund size matters to capital allocators
- How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
04:28 – Macro recap from Niels
06:15 – Weekly review of performance
11:21 – Q1, Q2 & Q3; Brett: Do you group your futures contracts into ‘risk buckets’ (sectors/groups), and give a max exposure to each ‘risk bucket’? Do you apply ‘risk-to-stop’ measures on particular types of asset class or only on the whole portfolio? How do you avoid overweighting your system toward currencies, considering the fact there are so many currency pairs to trade?
27:25 – Discussion on the key drivers for manager selection, inspired by a paper co-authored with Mark, which will be released soon
57:02 – How important consultations are in the capital allocation process
01:26:59 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI157: How to Make Money & Survive in the Markets ft. Jerry Parker
Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The case for longer-term strategies
- Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition
- How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustness
- Why Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the future
- How to prevent cyber attacks
- Why you can't always rely on past correlations to continue
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:32 - A big thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes
02:26 - Macro recap from Niels
04:43 - Weekly review of returns
15:55 - An insight into Jerry Parker’s approach to backtesting
23:06 - Jerry Parker’s thoughts on the challenges of starting a CTA business today and how to overcome them
32:35 - Thoughts on effective succession planning for CTAs, as well as some thoughts on staying safe from cyber attacks
37:41 - Q1; Sebastien: How do you approach currency hedging?
41:17 - How one simple rule can be more powerful than a group of complex rules
44:48 - How shorter-term systems can be susceptible to noise
47:54 - Why past correlations can’t always be relied upon
49:32 - Discussion on a recent TransTrend article on how to respond to extreme volatility in the markets, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic
56:34 - Jerry’s thoughts on system diversification
01:01:59 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial
- Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable
- Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods
- Some good measures for monitoring risk
- Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing
- Suitable backtesting software for retail investors
- How to approach negative interest rates with your broker
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts
03:21 - Macro recap from Niels
05:38 - Weekly review of returns
18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests
26:42 - Q1 & Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same?
41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way out of a correction over stocks making new all time highs?
45:16 - Q4; James: Can you recommend a software with backtesting capabilities, suitable for retail investors?
47:10 - Q5; Sebastien: How do you deal with negative interest rates from your broker?
51:14 - Q6; Mikhail: Is it worth varying the lengths of time being backtested rather than just, for example, backtesting data over the last 50 years?
57:39 - Thoughts on Germany’s upcoming election and its possible effects on the markets
01:02:08 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI155: How to Create the Perfect Backtest ft. Richard Brennan
This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following
- Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live
- The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers
- Leverage, margin, & total portfolio risk-to-stop
- What information to look for in a backtest
- How to avoid 'curve-fitting' (and could some curve-fitting be beneficial?)
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:25 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
03:47 – Macro recap from Niels
05:57 – Weekly review of performance
10:59 – Trend Followers as hunters of outliers
13:34 – Q1; Louis: Do you recommend starting a new model with lower leverage, so that it has time to adjust to the markets?
20:02 – Q2; Aaron: If you had to choose a different strategy to complement your main Trend Following strategy, which one would you choose, and why?
25:03 – Q3; Graham: How much margin do you use on different instruments? What total portfolio risk-to-stop do you recommend?
35:23 – ‘The good, the bad, and the ugly’ of backtesting
52:50 – How to make a backtest as objective and robust as possible
01:25:49 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI154: Defining 'Outliers' from a Trend Follower's Perspective ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs
- How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers'
- The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system
- Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification'
- Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes
- Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions
- Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared'
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:31 – Macro recap from Niels
11:17 – Weekly review of performance
17:10 – Q1; Adam: At what point does diversification become dilution?
22:32 – Q2; Mathew: Have there ever been any years where currencies were your top performers?
32:09 – What the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s point of view, as well as some thoughts on the terms ’non-linearity squared' and ‘pyramiding’
01:02:36 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI153: Being Aware of Known & Unknown Risks ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of
- How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system
- The true definitions of liquidity
- Futures markets as the most liquid in the world
- Why a rules-based approach to the markets is so important
- The 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement
- Trend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:24 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:57 – Macro recap from Niels
04:37 – Weekly review of performance
09:16 – 'The black hole of Jackson Hole' and the 50th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement
18:11 – The different types of liquidity
29:50 – How to measure a market’s true liquidity
01:01:37 – Integrating ESG into Trend Following
01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI152: Love Your Rules, But Not Your Positions ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures
- Thoughts on autocorrelation
- The benefits of trading a wide range of markets
- How over-optimisation can result in underperformance
- Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmental
- Why your rules are more important than any one position
- How decreasing position size can increase a system's profits
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
04:11 - Macro recap from Niels
04:44 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes
05:25 - Discussion on Ethereum
08:34 - Weekly review of returns
10:21 - Where does the edge in Trend Following really come from?
17:13 - Market selection and utilising auto-correlation
26:40 - Q1; Mark: What are some of the things about Systematic Trading that you can only learn from experience?
34:48 - Q2; Stacius: When do you know that a strategy is robust, without doing a backtest?
38:19 - Jerry’s favourite measurement of risk-to-reward
51:21 - ‘Loose pants fit everyone’
53:51 - Deciding whether to trade in the Chinese futures markets
55:56 - CTAs utilising ETFs
01:02:05 - The benefits of being an amazing ‘quitter’
01:05:29 - Trend Following performance during different interest-rate periods
01:07:22 - Winton’s positive recent positive comments on Trend Following
01:08:57 - Transtrend’s recent article on volatility and how it should affect your models
01:12:59 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI151 Long-Term Profitability vs Short-Term Luck ft. Moritz Seibert
Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How effective Backtests can be
- Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets
- Ethereum futures
- Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded
- Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy
- Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system
- How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:44 - Macro recap from Niels
04:41 - Weekly review of returns
10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models
13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?
29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies?
36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do you use to measure whether strategy actually works and isn’t just in a lucky streak?
44:15 - Q5; Jeff: What alternatives to Microsoft Excel do you recommend, other than CSI?
49:46 - Ethereum futures and Bitcoin’s newer, smaller futures contracts
58:48 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI150: Extracting Edges from the Market ft. Richard Brennan
This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategy
- How to profit across multiple timeframes
- How momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methods
- Average win rate versus average loss rate
- Why inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investors
- Trailing stops and risk management
- How many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:31 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:18 – Macro recap from Niels
04:23 – Weekly review of performance
10:24 – Q1; Kushro: Is there a way for the novice rules-based investor to reliably backtest their rules?
12:40 – Q2 & Q3; Danny: Can you give an example of how to trade multiple timeframes? How do I manage risk from unrealised profits & losses?
23:35 – Extracting an edge from markets
42:22 – Analysing win/loss rates
52:00 – Stops and position sizing
56:42 – Benchmark performance update
57:45 – Some big announcements
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI149: Model Anxiety & Algorithm Aversion ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How behavioural finance leaves investors under-allocated to Trend Following strategies
- How to perceive momentum data
- Why the steady flow of market news often has little value for Trend Followers
- Embracing simplicity
- The need to avoid too many filters in your system
- How much should be risked per trade
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
03:02 – Macro recap from Niels
04:48 – Weekly review of performance
11:59 – Q1; James: What are your views on momentum indicators diverging against price action?
24:56 – Q2; Frank: What is your view on the relationship between the stop and the look-back period?
28:52 – Q3; John: Is the 2% rule still a popular and good risk-per-trade today?
35:56 – Q4; Mark: Would you ever not take a trade because it seems so absurd logically?
40:11 – Q5; Frederick: Do you think people are underinvested in CTAs because they want to feel in more ‘in control’ than a systematic approach would allow them to?
45:34 – The calculus of business cycles
48:51 – Narrative ambiguity versus model clarity
50:53 – How to handle depreciating cash
54:04 – The power of weather shocks
58:01 – Do we need inflation futures?
59:58 – Curve play in bonds
01:02:11 – Hayek co-ordination problem and recovery
01:04:57 – Benchmark performance update
01:05:57 – Next week we have Richard Brennan joining us on the show, so send in your questions
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI148: The Importance of Capturing A Few Large Trends ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes
02:02 - Macro recap from Niels
12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy?
31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’?
40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer?
47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns
50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance
58:11 - How newer money managers can differentiate themselves from their competitors
01:01:04 - Diversification versus concentration
01:05:07 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI147: The Perfect Exit Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possible
- Optimal exits from hugely profitable trades
- How to engage in related to your investment approach
- Over complicating a trading strategy
- Acceptable margin amounts
- Spread-trading using a Trend Following strategy
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:28 - Macro recap from Niels
03:53 - Weekly review of returns
11:01 - The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber
14:32 - Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure? What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it?
29:20 - Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods?
34:13 - Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the Commitment of Traders report?
41:14 - Q5; John: What is a normal amount of margin that CTAs use?
42:30 - Q6, Q7 & Q8; Babek: Should you trade all markets using the same approach? How do you deal with downside risks once a large profitable uptrend is established? Should position size be increased if the number of open trades is less than the maximum?
01:01:56 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI146: The Trend Following Mindset ft. Rob Carver
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes.
You can read some of Rob’s work here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Trend Following as a solution to rising inflation
- The major stock indices being of composed of mainly companies are losing money
- Trend Following on ETFs
- Predicting future returns using current risk exposure
- Retail traders versus professional money managers
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI145: The 3 D's of Inflation ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fears
- How price action incorporates all narratives
- Trend Following on options
- The extra costs of short-term trading
- Single stocks versus index futures
- If Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following system
- Mark's '3 D's' of inflation
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:37 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:32 – Macro recap from Niels
06:19 – Weekly review of performance
16:53 – Q1; Omar: Why is Trend Following associated mostly to futures?
31:32 – Q2; Mohammed: How do I overcome a lack of patience and discipline?
35:33 – Q3; Abishek: How does Technical Analysis relate to Trend Following?
39:43 – Predicting market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements
56:26 – How price moves change narratives and not the other way around
01:00:16 – The ‘Three D’s’ of inflation
01:05:33 – When is the best time to invest in Trend Following?
01:11:29 – Benchmark performance update
01:12:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: The Half Life of Facts by Samuel Arbesman and The Premonition by Michael Lewis
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI144: Why Single Stocks Should Matter to CTAs ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:29 - Macro recap from Niels
08:01 - Weekly review of returns and the narrative change around Bitcoin
19:01 - Q1; Omar: What books do you recommend for Trend Following educational material?
27:52 - Q2; Jacob & Sam: Can Bitcoin futures be traded safely even though you can’t trade them over the weekend?
35:40 - Q3; Mark: Could Chesapeake and Dunn Capital trade as an ETF to allow more people exposure to their strategies?
44:22 - Q4; Vinicius: What are your thoughts about Trend Following on single stocks?
50:08 - Q5; Antonio: Should we be less diversified and more concentrated with our trades?
01:03:39 - Why having rules isn’t enough to justify a robust trading system
01:15:24 - Thoughts on measuring skew
01:19:05 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI143: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin? ft. Eric Crittenden
Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolio
- The recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policy
- Eric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crash
- The varying speeds of Trend Following
- Why low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy isn't risky
- Overcoming behavioural biases
- Managed futures as a great benefit to investor's portfolios
- The flight out of fixed income
- Why crypto investors could benefit from Trend Following
- Changing the narrative around Trend Following
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:59 - Macro recap from Niels
03:22 - Weekly review of returns
10:41 - What could Trend Following bring to the crypto space?
16:36 - How can CTAs change the narrative around investing so that they are included in the picture at all times, instead of just when investors are panicking?
24:50 - Q1; Leonie: What goals can I set as an independent Trend Following trader?
30:13 - Q2, Q3 & Q4; James: How do you size positions across different speeds of systems? How much in percentage terms should a retail investor allocate to Trend Following strategies? Can you recommend a CTA comparison website?
33:16 - Q5; Jacob & Sam: Can Bitcoin futures be traded safely even though you can’t trade them over the weekend?
36:30 - Trend Following reframed for better understanding
48:04 - Trend Following misunderstood
59:48 - Why Trend Following on only a single asset class often leads to failure
01:04:17 - Economic and social similarities between today and the 1960s
01:07:37 - The fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio
01:16:54 - How managed futures can help portfolios
01:23:16 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU115: Building a Bulletproof Portfolio with Jason Buck of Mutiny Fund
What happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside? Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events. Jason has been a long-time listener of the show, so it was only right that I invited him on to discuss some of the methods and thinking behind Mutiny Fund, and how these approaches can provide protection and profits during all market environments.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Jason got to where he is today
- If the initial risks Jason set out to protect his clients against, have changed
- Why CTAs could be considered ‘long-volatility’ assets that provide protection during broad market selloffs such as 2020
- The benefits of ‘ensemble’ investing
- The opposite requirements of building wealth versus keeping wealth
- Why a sample size of 100 years is still just an anomaly
- Why the typical ‘diverse’ portfolio might be riskier than investors realise
- What a ‘long-volatility’ asset looks like
- The history of long-volatility assets
- The term ‘crisis alpha’ and what it means to him and his clients
- How to overcome the challenges of educating investors about volatility-event risks
- Whether the addition of long-volatility components to portfolios today has affected his initial approach
- Why the Sharpe Ratio is often misunderstood as a risk measurement tool
- How much, and why, returns vary among different long-volatility managers
- How to approach position sizing with black swan events in mind
- Some of the common investor mistakes
- How to choose between different Trend Following managers
- How to create a strategy for inflationary and deflationary environments
- If less-liquid assets can be safely incorporated into a portfolio
- How to analyse backtests properly
- If Jason uses Gold and Bitcoin in his long-volatility strategies
- What keeps Jason up at night in terms of risks
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on Twitter
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI142: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin Really? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- If Bitcoin is really as decentralised as it's reputed to be
- Adjusting your system on an individual trade basis
- What to do with your trading profits
- Defending against inflation
- Short-term Trend Following versus long-term Trend Following
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:33 - Macro recap from Niels
04:02 - Weekly review of returns
12:15 - Rob’s decision to trade Bitcoin futures
21:28 - Why Bitcoin may not be so decentralised
38:05 - Q1; Dan: Do you think fitting by instrument makes sense for intraday Trend Following?
48:43 - Q2; John: Why does Rob only allocate part of his profits back into his portfolio?
57:19 - Q3; Peewee: If Rob could only trade 5 or 6 futures markets, which ones would he pick?
01:02:54 - Q4; Saed: Do you prefer keeping position size constant across all trades, or adjusting according to volatility?
01:06:38 - Financial Times article: ‘How to Defend Against Inflation’
01:13:47 - Check out the new episode from the Top Traders Unplugged series, coming out soon
01:14:22 - Article from FactorResearch: ‘Short vs Long-Term Trend Following’
01:20:26 - Benchmark performance update
01:21:27 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Mark Rzepcynski's blog post on commodity prices during inflationary periods, Nikhil Shamapant on the Hidden Forces Podcast & Josh Rogin on the Joe Rogan Podcast
01:26:54 - Next week, special guest Eric Crittenden joins us on the show
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI141: Aligning 'Operation Tempo' with your Trading Personality ft. Mark Rzepcyznski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- China's recent banning of Bitcoin trading and mining
- The Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible new digital currency
- Inflation and its effects on trading
- The psychology around drawdowns
- Price signals and how they can be distorted by inflation
- Matching what Mark terms as 'Operation Tempo' with your personality
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:11 – Macro recap from Niels
05:49 – Weekly review of performance
11:00 – Further discussion on our recent talking point of discretionary versus systematic, including some comments from Top Traders Unplugged community member, Danny
13:38 – Q1; Fernando: Does it get easier with time and experience, to endure drawdowns?
22:40 – Some of the issues around inflation and how that might affect trading
44:30 – Momentum crashes and decision-clustering
57:35 – The importance of matching your personality to the timeframes you trade
01:04:10 – When is the best time to invest in Trend Following?
01:11:28 – Benchmark performance update
01:12:30 - Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring David Rosenberg
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI140: Down Markets Are Often a Treasure to Trend Followers ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why you should prioritise price over any other form of data
- How bad markets for the average investor is often lucrative for Trend Followers
- How mainstream attention to market trends usually means they're about to end
- Why money managers shouldn't always try to stand out too much
- The increasing rarity of classical Trend Following CTAs
- How to embrace the mentality of cutting losses
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:55 - Macro recap from Niels
06:07 - Weekly review of returns
13:34 - Stanley Druckenmiller’s recent interview criticising the Federal Reserve
16:17 - Q1 & Q2; Shibojet: What are your thoughts about a dynamic trading system that focuses more on what’s working over any given time-period, rather than a static trading system with rigid criteria? Why don’t Trend Followers trade cash equities?
39:32 - Q3; Aldo: Is it worth trading a small account using micro-futures? What are your thoughts on pyramiding into positions?
50:51 - Conquering the fear of losses
53:45 - How many markets should we trade?
01:06:58 - Benchmark performance update
01:07:56 - CBOE announce new Bond futures
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI139: How to Beat Unpredictable Markets ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Berkshire Hathaways's recent annual general meeting
- The likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates
- How to overcome the unpredictable nature of markets
- Thoughts on De-Fi
- Increasing sustainability requirements of the investment industry
- The newer, smaller futures contracts being listed on the CME
- Trend Following on cryptocurrencies
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:21 - Macro recap from Niels
02:49 - Weekly review of returns
11:02 - The Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting
26:24 - Why Lumber prices are on the rise
32:44 - New and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME
36:50 - Ethereum futures
45:46 - Continued outflows from Cathy Wood’s ARKK innovation ETF
46:42 - Q1; John: What is your methodology for selecting which contract month to trade, and when to roll?
52:46 - Q2; Brian: What topics, articles, blogs, podcasts or books do you recommend for somebody who wants to learn about cryptocurrencies as fast and easy as possible?
59:28 - Benchmark performance update
01:00:11 - Recommended listening or reading this week: 'Why the Price of Lumber Has Soared' on the Odd Lots Podcast and Michael Lewis on the Masters in Business Podcast and Tom Basso on Trend Following Radio
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI138: The 'Holy Trinity' of Security Selection ft. Rob Carver
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following system
- Rob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securities
- The ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky bets
- The most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems
- 'Caveman-style' Trend Following
- How to hedge against inflation
- Trend Following's success in rising interest-rate environments
- Tesla's recent earnings
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:36 - Macro recap from Niels
04:27 - Weekly review of returns
09:38 - Discussion on Tesla’s recent earnings
25:13 - Q1; Matt via the Top Traders Unplugged free voicemail service: How do you select single stocks as a Trend Follower?
35:02 - Q2; Alfred: Does backwardation lead to price rallies?
41:10 - The fund who are now nicknamed ‘Gamma Hammer’ for betting on tranquil markets
48:07 - Q3; Riccardo: What does Rob think about mean reversion strategies, and how they can be complimented with Trend Following? What are your thoughts on Systematic Macro strategies, and how do they compare with Trend Following?
57:16 - Q4; Michael: How long would it take to convert a system made in Microsoft Excel, to Python?
01:00:20 - Q5; James: What do you think about exiting winning trades in stages, rather than at once?
01:06:08 - Hedging against inflation
01:11:06 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI137: Can AI Trading Be Better Than Classical Methods? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How a Trend Following approach allows safer access to risky markets
- The differences between Systematic Trading based on macro data versus based on price-only
- How a top trader should efficiently process new data
- Modern AI-based Trend Following versus classical Trend Following
- Whether the biggest hedge funds in the world fall victim of being too greedy for AUM
- Why you should avoid 'timing the market'
- The possible secrets of success behind Dunn Capital's near 50-year track record
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:00 – Macro recap from Niels
08:46 – Weekly review of performance
13:28 – Swedish systematic macro-fund, IPM, closes after losing $4billion during the pandemic
28:37 – New style Trend Following with machine learning versus classical Trend Following
53:54 – Some of the reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record
01:05:03 – Q1 Raymond: What are some good methods for market selection, other than liquidity?
01:08:35 – Q2; Dirk: Have you found significant differences between volatility-based position-sizing and a one-size-fits-all approach?
01:17:10 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI136: When Investments Become A Religion ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investments
- Coinbase's recent stock market listing
- Position sizing using historical volatility
- Buy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periods
- Mean Reversion trading versus Trend-based trading
- The infamous Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:36 - Macro recap from Niels
04:37 - Weekly review of returns
09:37 - A question for Jerry, from Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?
24:44 - ‘Trend Strength’ signals, what they are, and if you should use them
26:52 - Whether Trend Followers do actually make market predictions
35:49 - A question for Jerry from Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?
40:27 - Meb Faber’s recent poll on how much should be allocated to Trend Following
48:31 - Q1; Danny: How do you find new positions to trade?
53:09 - Q2; Mathew: How do you define a longer-term timeframe?
01:00:44 - Performance recap
01:01:50 - Jerry asks Niels to discuss the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI135: WHY Trend Following is the Safest Investment Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for risk
- What stage of the bull market in stocks we might be in
- The rise in commodity prices
- Trading in the Chinese commodity markets
- The possible risks of trading in emerging markets
- Crypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures markets
- Trend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfolio
- call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:19 - Macro recap from Niels
05:22 - Weekly review of returns
12:48 - Quant trading firms being ready to pounce on a possible upcoming commodity boom, especially in China
31:05 - The departure of some CTAs away from major exchanges, and the fund Archegos blowing up costing billions for major global banks
49:25 - Arbitraging bitcoin futures
01:00:45 - Q1; Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?
01:04:40 - Q2; John: Do you have any advice on which futures contract to trade and when to roll?
01:09:14 - Q3; Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?
01:14:45 - Performance recap
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI134: Sticking with Short Positions ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The reasons for avoiding a long-only trading system
- Knowing when 'good enough' is good enough
- Why investors may be allocating to Trend Following in the wrong amounts
- When volatility equates to risk
- Approaches to multi-timeframe analysis
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Macro recap from Niels
04:34 - Weekly review of returns
46:37 - Q1; Marcus: What is Jerry’s approach to shorting stocks?
49:50 - Q2 & Q3; Nathaniel: Do you have any suggestions for reliable ‘predictors of return’? Do you recommend trading futures that are in backwardation?
57:16 - Q4; Nick: Are there advantages to trading markets that are unusually volatile?
01:00:07 - Performance recap
01:01:00 - Recommended listening or reading this week.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI133: Volatility Targeting ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The case for and against Volatility Targeting
- Whether Bitcoin can offset any risks from a high-inflationary environment
- Whether commodities can be suitable for long-term strategies
- The credibility of NFTs as an asset class
- Volume analysis as a trading signal
- Volatility as a measure of risk
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:24 – Macro recap from Niels
04:17 – Weekly review of performance
31:32 – Q1; Dennis: How can a retail trader with limited capital access the commodity markets?
41:47 - Q2; Dennis: How would you deal with big intraday volatility such as in 2020?
51:02 - Q3; Cat: Is volume analysis overrated?
56:16 - Q4; Gustavo: Why should we be worried about volatility if it is going our way?
01:05:52 - Q5; Emra: How often should you recalibrate your system? Why do you recommend not locking in profits early, after unusually sharp portfolio increases?
01:16:08 – Benchmark performance update
01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo
01:27:35 – Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette Declercq
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investing
- Interest rates and their effects on the trading markets
- How correlations can increase volatility
- The benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to policy-making
- The common perils of 'recency bias'
- Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returns
- The hidden costs behind supposed 'low cost' funds
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:14 – Macro recap from Niels
06:36 – Weekly review of performance
57:46 – Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance?
1:08:29 – Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a CTA or Trend Following ETF?
1:14:42 – Q3; Craig: Do you think CTAs are missing out by not trading small-cap crypto, and do you think they will eventually?
01:24:03 – Benchmark performance update
01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo
01:25:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette Declercq
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI131: Winning Big During An Inflationary Environment ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Smart ways to manage cash during periods of high inflation
- Staying humble during long winning periods
- The GameStop short-squeeze
- New volatility-based ETFs for Cryptocurrencies
- Why analysing the outcome instead of the process may prove costly in the long run
- Can we still call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:33 - Macro recap from Niels
04:45 - Weekly review of performance
32:56 - Q1; Daniel: How much do you risk per trade?
48:32 - Q2; Karl: When using moving average crossovers, how do you get back into a trade you were quickly stopped out of?
53:25 - Q3; Mark: Why should I place short trades if my backtest says long trades are more profitable? Have you looked at synthetic data, going back over 200 years?
01:02:58 - Benchmark performance update
01:03:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Diego Parilla
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI130: Volatility-Targeting: The Big Debate ft. Jerry Parker & Rob Carver
We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity risk
- The benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targeting
- Modern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend Following
- The 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investing
- How important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio?
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:45 – Macro recap from Niels
03:33 – Weekly review of performance
10:10 – Jerry Parker vs Rob Carver debate
53:13 – Q1; Michael: Why do you prefer breakouts & moving average cross-overs to other signals?
56:58 – Q2; Rene: Do have preferred methods for measuring trend strength?
01:05:14 – Q3, Q4, Q5 & Q6: Doogie; How can retail investors in the UK gain access to different CTA funds? Do you trade pair spreads? Why doesn’t Rob trade Bitcoin futures yet? Are Trend Following & Market Making returns correlated?
01:09:44 – Q7, Q8 & Q9: Gustavo; How do you manage to transition from an old system to a new system? With a non-binary system, how do you reduce multi-month futures contracts? Do you adjust moving average signals according to recent volatility?
01:15:39 – Benchmark performance update
01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Anatomy of Bond ETF Arbitrage by the Bank of International Settlements, Pfizer's Abusive Vaccine Deals & Michael Goldstein on ‘Controlling The Bitcoin Rhetoric’
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI129: Correlation & Volatility…and is holding bonds “Stupid”? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- If holding bonds "stupid"?
- The problem of being an economic policy engineer
- Why we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systems
- The value of intuition - coup d'oeil and Clausewitz
- Robot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot"
- Correlation and volatility
- The poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets
- Due diligence and quality of managers.
- Intraday trends – are they stable or unstable?
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:46 – Macro recap from Niels
05:18 – Weekly review of performance
01:04:48 – Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA industry? Can you speak about the research process you follow and how you generate trade ideas?
01:10:49 – Benchmark performance update
01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo
01:14:34 – Announcement: Special episode next week featuring both Jerry Parker & Rob Carver
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI128: Investing during Inflationary or Deflationary periods ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:28 – Macro recap from Niels
03:30 – Weekly review of performance
30:49 – Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program? What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s?
59:43 – Q1; Mohit: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends?
01:02:36 – Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’ experiment?
01:13:25 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:24 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Dr Andrew Huberman on the Lewis Howes Podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI127: Bitcoin's rise to $50,000 & new Ethereum futures ft. Moritz Seibert
Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:16 – Macro recap from Niels
04:57 – Weekly review of performance
41:32 – Q1; Kevin: In a continuous Trend Following strategy with no stops, is there anyway to minimise the whipsaw action during a trend change?
47:10 – Q2; Simon: How do you measure the business risks that aren’t related to market performance?
49:59 – Q3; Danny: What are your thoughts on using an overall portfolio-based stop-loss
55:14 – Q4; Tsatios: To what extent is hedge fund performance a result of skills in accounting & tax laws, on top of performance in the markets?
01:00:56 – Benchmark performance update
01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Jim Bianco & Jeremy Grantham on the Meb Faber show
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI126: GameStop & How to become a Systematic Investor ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:25 – Macro recap from Niels
04:27 – Weekly review of performance
42:32 – Q1; Michael: Should you use the US dollar to hedge against multiple long trades?
48:47 – Q2; Dennis: Can you discuss the pros & the cons of scaling in & out of positions?
59:22 – Q3 & Q4; Woody: Will continued central bank intervention prevent Trend Following profitability? Will the rise of passive over active investments pose a threat to medium to long-term Trend Followers, in terms of the increased volatility they might create?
01:15:39 – Q5; Daniel: When starting a new Trend Following system, should you enter all markets right away, or only enter the positions once new signals arrive?
01:21:14 – Q6; Red Eagle: How often do you see a trade that goes long in one pair, and short in another pair, and do you get excited at this? Alternatively, do you worry when both pairs are long or short?
01:25:50 – Q7; Cordura: Do you recommend Trend Following on indices only?
01:31:57 – Benchmark performance update
01:32:49 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Article in the Financial Times on Melvin Capital & the Gamestop frenzy, Hussman Funds recent market comments & Salem Abraham on the Meb Faber podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI125: Will the FED always prevent prolonged market crashes ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:23 – Macro recap from Niels
05:24 – Weekly review of performance
01:04:34 – Q1; Jonah: Do you recommend adding to a position as the trend develops?
01:12:46 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:27 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Resilience Engineering website & Danielle DiMartino Booth interviews Vikram Mansharamani on YouTube
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI124: Why smart people often struggle with systematic investing ft. Jerry Parker
Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:41 – Macro recap from Niels
03:54 – Weekly review of performance
52:18 – Q1; Zack: Are there any known Trend Following strategies that increase position sizes as volatility increases?
57:55 – Benchmark performance update
01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Paul Singer on the End Game Podcast with Grant Williams, Corey Hoffstein on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots Podcast & Jack Schwager on The Derivative Podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI123: The benefits of NOT taking profits too early ft. Moritz Seibert
In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out? What are your views on stop-losses?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:40 – Macro recap from Niels
05:06 – Weekly review of performance
53:15 – Q1; Carlos: Has March 2020 impacted how you view your Trend Following approach?
59:14 – Q2; James: Why did Moritz place a discretionary short-trade on Tesla last month? Why does Dunn Capital avoid using stop-losses? What are your most memorable trades?
01:12:09 – Q3; Peter: Do you recommend any particular brokers?
01:17:30 – Q4; Craig: What are your thoughts on managed futures ETFs?
01:20:22 – Benchmark performance update
01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Art Berman & Danielle Dimartino-Booth on The Felder Report Podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI122: Quant vs Discretionary Investing ft. Robert Carver
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:07 – Macro recap from Niels
03:59 – Weekly review of performance
47:20 – Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally?
54:42 – Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio?
01:02:30 – Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions?
01:08:46 – Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment?
01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update
01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine’s articles Bloomberg, The RInger Podcast: ‘Gamblers’ & Tim Harford’s Cautionary Tales Podcast on the COVID Vaccine
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI121: How to Design a Profitable Trend Following System
In this episode, I conclude my special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system. I also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI120: Deep dive into my own Trend Following Model
In today’s special episode, I go deep into how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program. I also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
0:00 – Intro
1:37 – A thank-you to our hosts, previous guests, production team, and all listeners of the show
3:35 – 2020 Macro recap from Niels
6:51 – How to think about trading and system development
31:59 – Performance recap
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI119: Trading TESLA & Commodity Breakout ft. Jerry & Moritz
Today we welcome back Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:28 – Macro recap from Niels
04:13 – Weekly review of performance
12:34 – What is risk management?
57:50 – Q1; Michael: When you trade foreign instruments, do you trade them in their native currencies?
01:00:54 – Q2; Jim: Does the need for diversification outweigh the benefits of concentrated gains?
01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update
01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Hidden Forces podcast, Kyle Bass on the Macro Voices Podcast & Jack Schwager on the Systematic Investor Podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI118: 2020 Trend Following Recap & safe-havens in 2021 ft. Mark & Moritz
Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:17 – Macro recap from Niels
02:40 – Weekly review of performance
13:15 – Moritz: What do you see the narrative for 2021 Trend Following strategies will be?
27:07 – Niels: How would your performance look this year if you took out the 2 biggest winners?
53:09 – Trend Following as a store of value
01:07:42 – Benchmark performance update
01:08:32 – Jerry Parker joins us on the show next week. Send in any questions you may have.
01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading: In Defense of Trouble Makers by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth & A Deflationary World with Jeff Boothe on the Investors Podcast Network
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI117: Why Stocks and Trend Following is a Perfect Match ft. Moritz Seibert
Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how to define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:15 – Macro recap from Niels
05:14 – Weekly review of performance
52:51 – Q1; Fernando: How have your views on position sizing evolved over the years? & What are your thoughts on managing drawdowns?
01:03:18 – Benchmark performance update
01:06:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rishi Narang on the Chat With Traders Podcast & Keith McCullough on The Felder Report podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU114: 2021 Market Predictions ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology
I first interviewed today’s guest back in 2015, where he predicted the Dow Jones Index would go to 32,000…a bold call back then. Mahendra Sharma is an astrological investor with an amazing track record of accurately predicting market fluctuations. He has spent his career studying astrological charts and conveying those findings, along with his understanding of human behavior, into a lucrative business giving advice on when to sell and when to hold various commodities, bonds, and currencies. His latest book on 2021 Financial Prophecies will be released in January.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Mahendra got into astrology
- Why he relocated to Kenya as a young man
- Why Mahendra pivoted to predicting the global markets
- Why Mahendra stopped predicting big world events after 9/11
- How he built his financial astrological charts and what he is looking for
- How astrological charts are in some ways similar to other statistical based investment approaches
- How human behavior fits into the astrological process
- Mahendra’s prediction of Tesla from 2018
- What are Mahendra’s predictions for 2021
- What trend the European equities markets will follow
- Why Mahendra sees an issue with the Euro as we approach 2024
- The interesting correlation between the year 2021 and the Fibonacci sequence
- Mahendra’s interesting prediction about Gold for the year 2052
- Where Mahendra sees the $Dollar bottoming out
- What commodities stand out to Mahendra
- Mahendra’s prediction for a potential Bitcoin CRASH in early 2021
- Why investors should be careful after 2024
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mahendra on LinkedIn
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI116: How to manage emotions regardless of your performance ft. Moritz Seibert
In today’s episode, we discuss how to effectively manage your emotional stability regardless of trading performance, the true value of Bitcoin and the various catalysts behind its price movements, the importance of being able to get back into a trade you may have recently been stopped out of, managing leverage and volatility in a portfolio, how to approach extreme anomalies in historical price data, and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
0:00 – Intro
1:33 – Macro recap from Niels
3:17 – Weekly review of performance
8:13 – Q1, via voicemail, from Gene in New Zealand: Is it ok to ignore perceived anomalies & outdated occurrences in historical data?
20:49 – Q2; Veyana: If I get whipsawed out of a trade and it sets up again immediately after, should I take the trade again?
25:26 – Q3; Terrance: How do I control the leverage of my portfolio when utilising volatility parity?
32:00 – Q4; Sebastien: How do you separate your self-worth from your net worth?
39:49 – Benchmark performance update
41:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: The Vinklevoss Twins on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & Robert Breedlove on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Podcast (Investors Podcast Network)
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI115: Open trade Equity vs Realized Profits and Value vs Growth ft. Rob and Moritz
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record. Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following? Do you recommend any hedging strategies?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:35 – Macro recap from Niels
04:59 – Weekly review of performance
27:16 – Q1; Mervin: What investment strategies would you recommending supplementing a Trend Following portfolio with?
37:36 – Q2 & Q3; Daniel: How do you think about open trade equity versus closed equity, in terms of drawdowns? Do you have any recommendations for hedging your Trend Following positions?
01:03:57 – Q4; Antonio: Which type of Moving Average (SMA, EMA, ALMA etc) is generally the most effective in Trend Following models?
01:22:48 – Benchmark performance update
01:23:48 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rauol Pal on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & blog post on the Robot Wealth website regarding Tesla’s inclusion in the S&P 500 & William White talking to Jim Grant on Real Vision
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI114: The importance of Short Sellers and Pfizer CEO selling stocks ft. Moritz Seibert
This week, we discuss the importance of short sellers for well-functioning markets, the benefits of trading index futures versus cash equities, diversification in a robust Trend Following system, Pfizer’s CEO selling a majority of his stock holdings around the vaccine announcement, the differences between top independent discretionary traders & professional money managers, and the increasing use of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Questions we answer this week include: Are shorter timeframes going to be more effective than longer timeframes in the future? What are your thoughts on trading less-liquid markets?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:02 – Macro recap from Niels
03:09 – Weekly review of performance
28:30 – Q1; James: Would your rules suit cash equities only?
38:54 – Q2; Anti: Shorter-term strategies seem to have done well in the last 5 years, should we be looking to trade these shorter timeframes, instead of the longer-term timeframes?
46:54 – Q3; Michael: What are your thoughts on trading in smaller markets such as butter, rough rice & oats?
01:00:18 – Benchmark performance update
01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Stephanie Kelton on the Macro Voices Podcast & Chris Cole on the Grant Williams Podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU113: Why Farmland Investments is getting traction ft. Artem Milinchuk of FarmTogether
Artem Milinchuk is the CEO and Founder of FarmTogether, a firm specializing in farmland investments. Artem was born in the waning days of the Soviet Union, and while growing up in Russia, saw the importance of access to fresh food for a society. Artem joins us today to talk about his investment journey and why he feels that having farmland as an asset class in your investment portfolio can be one of the smartest investment moves you can make.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the transition from the Soviet Union to Russia influenced Artem’s investment strategies
- What exactly constitutes farmland as an asset class
- How investing in farmland has changed over the past 40 years
- How farmland investments help multigenerational families keep their farms
- What is the main driver for investors to move into farmland
- Why investors include farmland in their portfolios as an inflation-proof asset
- How reliable is farmland investment data
- What effect will climate change have on farmland investments
- How secure are government farm subsidies
- The effect 5G will have on farming and farmland investing
- What are the risks to consider when investing in farmland
- What is FarmTogether’s farmland investment process
- How should an investor go about incorporating farmland into their portfolio
- How much does an investor need in order to purchase a farm
- What types of investors seek out farmland
- What are the key questions potential investors should be asking before investing in farmland
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Farmtogether on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI113: The Unknown Market Wizards ft. Jack Schwager
Today, we welcome legendary author Jack Schwager onto the show to discuss his new book ‘Unknown Market Wizards’ and a range of topics such as: what timeframe makes the most successful trader, how the best traders seem to have uncorrelated returns to the overall stock market, why elite traders can often have terrible starts to their careers, how embracing risk management can take returns to a much higher level, what investors should look for in a money manger, mean-reversion versus momentum trading, and a lot more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:27 – Macro recap from Niels
02:17 – Weekly review of performance
05:01 – Niels: Where do systematic traders tend to rank in your book, compared to discretionary traders? What is the minimum length of track record you looked at, to be considered for inclusion in your book?
10:50 – Moritz: To what extent did mean reversion traders feature in your book, versus momentum-orientated traders?
16:47 – Niels: How much do you think luck played a part in the results of the traders in your new book?
23:01 – Moritz: When you were interviewing the traders in your book, did you, at any time, get the feeling that there were tailwinds, outside of their control, that helped their strategies?
27:41 – Niels: Some of the traders in your book blew up their accounts a few times, so can they still be called ‘wizards’ of the market?
34:37 – Moritz: There seems to be opposing views on diversification in your book. What are your thoughts on this?
39:07 – Niels: How do you think about the slight contradiction of discretionary traders being unemotional and not falling in love with their opinions?
41:26 – Moritz: Do you think it’s possible to train random people to be great traders, as in the Turtle Traders, or do you need to be born with certain skills?
45:44 – Niels: Do you believe that earlier market wizards had a different set of skills today’s market wizards?
53:35 – Niels: How do we inform investors to avoid ‘straight-line’ equity returns and embrace inconsistency a little more?
59:10 – Moritz: To what extent can you separate long-term traders & short-term traders in the Unknown Market Wizards book ?
01:02:13 – Niels: Which statistics would you pay most attention to if you had to build a system?
01:06:13 – Niels: If you were an investor, and you had to find a manager, and you could only ask them one question, what would it be?
01:07:43 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI112: How and When to improve your trading system ft. Moritz Seibert
In today’s episode, we discuss the continual need for improvements to a system, the importance of good housekeeping when it comes to managing a portfolio, the varying amounts of leverage among CFD brokers, choosing whether to accept outside investment into your strategy or go it alone, using profit stops versus letting your winners run, and the importance of protecting your intellectual property. Questions we answer this week include: How do experienced CTAs trade through limit-down (or limit-up) situations? Can machine learning be useful in Trend Following for more than just risk parity strategies?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:12 – Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
02:30 – Macro recap from Niels
04:43 – Weekly review of performance
16:38 – Q1; Matt: How do I incorporate external money into my trading strategy, and, alternatively, should I avoid it?
34:17 – Q2; Brian: How do experienced CTAs trade limit-down or limit-up situations?
46:54 – Q3; Panagiotis: Do you see any other uses for machine learning in Trend Following strategies, other than Risk Parity?
01:00:05 – Q4; Craig: Should I stick with my profit targets, or let my winners run?
01:04:46 – Benchmark performance update
01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks – Coming Into Focus podcast & Annie Duke on the Capital Allocator’s Podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI111: Trend Following pros and cons ft. Michael Covel
Legendary Trend Following author & podcast host, Michael Covel, joins us today to discuss the far-reaching popularity of his books, the advantages of allocating to a Trend Following manager rather than DIY trading, managing money for clients vs being an unknown successful private trader, why Trend Following funds should worry about AUM growing to be too large, why Trend Following still deserves an important allocation to any investment portfolio after recent mediocre returns, and whether central bank Quantitive Easing programs have changed the landscape for systematic investors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:04 – Weekly review of performance
10:17 – Moritz: Do you have any new books in the making?
13:07 – Announcement of Jack Schwager joining us on the show in 2 week’s time
13:16 – Moritz: How is your personal trading going?
16:00 – Listener question; Saeed: Which market sectors have the longest trends?
28:50 – Moritz: Do you think Trend Following is over-crowded?
29:49 – Niels: Is Trend Following’s mediocre performance over the last 10 years a new normal or an anomaly?
30:38 – Niels: What are your thoughts on pure Trend Following versus multi-strategy?
33:27 – Niels: How have institutional investors’ attitudes to Trend Following changed over the past 20 years?
38:24 – Niels: What do you say to those who ask, ‘has quantitive easing killed Trend Following’?
41:32 – Niels: What about those who say, ‘fast moving markets have killed Trend Following’?
43:34 – Niels: What do you think about managers overriding their systems during high-volatility periods?
47:45 – Niels: What are your thoughts on AI strategies?
54:10 – Niels: How do you feel about the Trend Following being labelled as ‘crisis alpha’?
01:00:30 – Benchmark performance update
01:01:30 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Robert Rosenberg on Bloomberg’s Business Week podcast, Michael Green on The Investor’s Podcast & Naval Ravikant on the Tim Ferris podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU112: The Art of Investing ft. Scott Lynn of Masterworks
Scott Lynn is the Founder and CEO of Masterworks. He began his career as a serial entrepreneur, starting tech companies focused on casual gaming, online advertising and financial technology. All along the way he collected art, and after seeing the data available in the last twenty years thanks to the Internet, Scott decided to pursue art as an investment. Art as an asset class has been around for hundreds of years, but only recently has been seen as a viable investment opportunity – made possible by Masterworks. Listen in on today’s episode to find out why art is becoming more popular as an asset class among investors, what the key macro drivers are for art, and how Masterworks is making art an accessible investment opportunity.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the art market is different today than it was twenty five years ago
- How old art is as an asset class
- How analyzing art is different from analyzing other asset classes
- When did art as an asset class begin to be studied
- How art returns are related to the growth of the top 1%
- How art prices are driven by a decreasing supply of new works
- How should an art collector think about risk
- What is a bad environment for art investment
- How Masterworks invests in art
- What is a standard commission when buying a piece of art
- What are the trends among art investors
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Scott on Twitter
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI110: US Election and how to trade Cryptos with rules ft. Moritz Seibert
This week, we discuss how markets are handling current US presidential election uncertainty, why a healthy allocation to Trend Following strategies may be needed now more than ever, our thoughts on trading systematically in the cryptocurrency markets, and how to invest in Trend Following funds with relatively low capital. We also answer your questions, including: how do I share the details of my successful trading strategy with my employer, who is a money management firm?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:08 – Special thank you to our listeners
03:41 – Macro recap from Niels
07:50 – Weekly review of performance
25:53 – Q1; Adam: I’m running a crypto Trend Following strategy. How do I minimise the amount of profit lost at tops & bottoms of markets?
35:40 – Q2; Brendan: My employer is now interested in using my Trend Following system. Do I handover the code & backtests? If I decline, will they be able to sue me (I built the system using half of my own time, and half during my employer’s time)? Do you have any advice re: incentives?
43:38 – Q3; Dr. Doom: Do you have any thoughts on how an Actuary could turn into a Quant trader? What are your opinion on high frequency trading managers?
46:45 – Announcement of Michael Covel joining us on next week’s episode
51:37 – Q4; Thomas: Is Trend Following still suitable as an investment in a mutual fund format?
01:01:48 – Benchmark performance update
01:03:27 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Joel Greenblatt on Bloomberg’s Masters in Business podcast & Felix Zulauf on the Grant Williams podcast
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI109: Investing like a legend ft. Perry Kaufman
Systematic trading and Trend Following legend, Perry Kaufman, joins us on the show today to discuss the importance of being comfortable with risk, the benefits of continuously ranking & evaluating markets, the importance of ‘fat tails’ in Trend Following systems, why you might want to use equal risk with every trade, how to avoid being over-correlated, trading single stocks vs indices, opinions on profit targets, and why he generally prefers long trades vs short trades.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:25 – Weekly review of performance
06:08 – Niels: How does the content in your book, Trading Systems, inform your decisions when building a system, and what do they mean to you?
26:44 – Niels: How do you avoid overfitting your system to accommodate markets that may not perform well in the future?
29:28 – Niels: How do you avoid being over-correlated?
30:17 – Niels: How does your ranking system work when adding or removing markets from your trading universe?
44:19 – Niels: How do you feel about profit targets?
53:06 – Niels: Why do you believe Trend Following strategies will always be successful?
57:00 – Niels: Have you found in your research that long-sided trades tend work better than short trades, and if so, have any hypothesis as to why that is?
01:04:33 – Moritz: What are your thoughts on trading single stocks vs trading the indices?
01:09:54 – Niels question for Moritz: How have you incorporated yourself & Perry’s work on Volatility Targeting into your trading?
01:21:29 – Niels: Are there any new discoveries that you’ve found in recent years that enhance Trend Following strategies, or have we most likely found everything by now?
01:24:45 – Benchmark performance update
01:26:32 – Niels: Which book, that you didn’t write, would you recommend to our listeners?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI108: The case for and against the Kelly Criterion ft. Robert Carver
Robert Carver joins us today to discuss the case for and against the Kelly Criterion, short vs medium vs long-term Trend Following, how closely you should be following different markets, diversification across markets vs across timeframes, how mainstream financial media is driving investors to alternative information sources, the amount of screens you need to trade successfully, and the importance of viewing returns in terms of percentage rather than monetary terms.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:24 – Macro recap from Niels
04:40 – Weekly review of performance
31:11 – Q1 & Q2; Roberto: Can Rob & Moritz explain the framework behind building block ‘volatility-targeting in his book ‘Systematic Trading’? Why does Rob, in his book, disagree with trading leveraged ETFs?
01:03:50 – Q3; Chris: Am I correct in avoiding the mini-futures in Silver market due to low liquidity?
01:10:08 – Trend Following: short-term vs medium term vs long term
01:18:05 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI107: Best and Worst markets to trade and benefits of adding the S&P500 ft. Moritz Seibert
In this episode, we discuss the best & worst markets for Trend Following strategies in recent years, the benefits of trading & investing across multiple timeframes, how a combined portfolio of Trend Following & the S&P500 has been historically lucrative, the perils of a market that is stuck in a large trading range, and how 3 months can easily change your year-to-date performance. Questions we answer include: What are your thoughts on inflation & fixed income, as they relate to Trend Following? How do commission & other charges affect systematic trading strategies? What is the optimal allocation to Trend Following? Do you have any advice for trading CFDs?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:57 – Macro recap from Niels
04:32 – Weekly review of performance
32:46 – Q1; James: Why does Moritz seemingly switch his positioning in a market between long & short, some times, and not other times?
39:42 – Q2 & Q3; Eduardo: What are your thoughts on inflation, bonds & Trend Following on fixed income? How do commissions and charges affect a Trend Following strategy?
59:00 – Q4; Anti: Is Moritz’s system a ‘stop & reverse’ system?
01:01:02 – Q5 & Q6; Mikael K: Can you build a trend following trading system based on Options rather than Futures? Do you have any advice for trading CFD’s?
01:05:11 – Q7; Michael N: What is the optimal portfolio allocation to Trend Following?
01:09:57 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI106: Ray Dalio's underwhelming 2020 performance and the FED ft. Moritz Seibert
Today, we discuss the Federal Reserve’s current inflation targets, whether it is ok for systematic managers to turn off their systems during periods of high volatility & uncertainty, the looming questions around Ray Dalio & Bridgewater’s underwhelming performance in 2020, volatility control vs risk control, and why liquidity should be an important deciding factor for investors when choosing a money manager. Questions we answer this week include: How do you size your positions once maximum portfolio risk is reached? Do have you have any tips on how to perform volatility-control?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:30 – Macro recap from Niels
04:36 – Weekly review of performance
31:24 – Q1; Daniel: How do you size new positions once your intended maximum portfolio risk is reached?
39:17 – Q2; Dave: Do you have any pointers on how effectively perform volatility targeting?
55:30 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI105: TESLA & How paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading ft. Moritz Seibert
On today’s show, we discuss Tesla’s threat to the current giants of European car manufacturing, how paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading, the drawbacks of Systematic Investing through a broker’s platform rather than manually operating the system, the benefits of including commodities & currencies in a Trend Following system, and the case against long/flat-only Trend Following on stocks. Questions we answer this week include: Do you recommend any platforms that you allow you to test your trading system? Do you recommend any ‘off-the-shelf’ Trend Following trading systems?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:24 – The importance of investing psychology (with reference to Morgan Housel’s new book: The Psychology of Money)
07:20 – Weekly review of performance
23:32 – Discussion on the perceived safety of bonds
33:05 – Q1; Mike: Do you recommend any platforms that allow you test your system?
40:34 – Q2; Carmich: Can you recommend any off-the-shelf Trend Following strategies for retail traders?
49:32 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM10: MMT, Global Warming and the Uniqueness of the 2020 Crisis ft. Steve Keen
We are extremely honoured to welcome Steve Keen, the legendary Australian economist, to our podcast today. Steve is one of the leading critics of mainstream economics, and in our conversation provided a valuable alternative perspective to some of the critical issues facing us today. As you might expect, we did spend time discussing the COVID crisis and the potential policy options for addressing its economic effects, but we also touched on a range of other topics, from climate change to digital currencies, as well as giving Rob the opportunity to ask Steve about Brexit.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- COVID crisis as a demand and supply shock
- Deflation
- Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
- The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
- Fiat and Gesselian currencies
- Central bank digital currencies
- The Euro
- Climate Change
- Government Debt and Deficits
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Steve on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI104: Inconvenient truths about Trend Following ft. Roberto Osorio
Today, we’re delighted to welcome Roberto Osorio, Vice President, Trading Systems at DUNN Capital, onto the show. Niels pitches Roberto some of our most fiercely debated topics so far, such as the optimal amount of markets to trade, diversification in all of its forms, the pros & cons of Volatility Targeting, how to accurately recognise model decay, Black Swan strategies and why they maintain popularity regardless of performance, the best look-back period for Trend Following strategies, and if today’s speed of information flow has led to stock market crashes & fast recoveries being the new normal.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:07 – Macro recap from Niels
08:49 – Weekly review of performance
09:26 – Interview with Roberto Osorio
12:03 – Niels: Can you help settle the debate of how many markets are optimal to trade?
19:00 – Niels: What are your thoughts on Volatility-targeting?
30:41 – Niels: How do you recognise model decay?
36:23 – Niels: What do you think is the best look-back period for Trend Following models?
44:40 – Niels: What is your view on the most effective ‘type’ of Trend Following model?
50:43 – Niels: What makes DUNN Capital so unique?
55:52 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI103: FED's Powell, Dave Portnoy and the potential Bond market bubble ft. Robert Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show this week to discuss Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the potential Bond market bubble that very few are talking about, the sweet-spot for Trend Following fund AUMs, Dave Portnoy’s influence on Robinhood traders, Tom Basso’s recent interview with Meb Faber, and the continual need to improve your successful trading strategies. Questions we answer this week include: Do you know of any Trend Following funds who use the Black-Litterman model of asset allocation? Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:01 – Macro recap from Niels
22:22 – Weekly review of performance
42:34 – Q1; Mike: Do you know of any Trend Followers who use the Black-Litterman model in their work?
55:31 – Q2; Michael: Should you combine the weight of more than 1 entry signal, for added effectiveness?
01:02:30 – Q3; from Twitter, for Rob: Do you have any update on using forecast-strength in a trading system?
01:09:02 – Q4; from Twitter: Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?
01:22:28 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM09: Mistakes from the past to guide us forward ft. Lyn Alden
We are very pleased to welcome Lyn Alden to the studio today, the founder of Lyn Alden investment strategy. Lyn is from an engineering background, and hence, as you might expect, brings a logical and rigorous approach to thinking about economics and financial markets. In our fascinating conversation Lyn was able to draw on her considerable knowledge and understanding of history to inform us in thinking about today’s problems. Our discussion spanned high level thinking about multi decade trends, but also very granular recommendations for the portfolio of assets you should hold today.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- Long run debt cycles
- Deleveraging and inflation in the 1920’s and 1940’s
- The 2008 Great Financial Crisis
- The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
- Debt and demographics
- QE and inflation
- Geopolitics and the possibility of war
- Portfolio inflation hedging
- Bitcoin
- Debt jubilees
- Pension fund investing in a low yield world
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Lyn on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI102: TESLA and the famous Tech Bubble ft. Moritz Seibert
This week, we discuss Tesla’s meteoric stock price rise and its likely inclusion into the S&P 500, similarities between today’s parabolic moves in the stock market and the famous tech bubble, why the current outlook for markets necessitates a place for investing in Trend Following strategies, Germany’s move to tax investors on their gold ETF holdings, Volatility-focused trading strategies, and the differences in making adjustments to short term systems vs long term systems. Questions answered this week include: At what point do you decide that your system is no longer working? How do you adjust for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:12 – Macro recap from Niels
17:53 – Weekly review of performance
22:52 – Discussion on how to safely own gold, and the German government’s move to tax investors on their Gold ETF holdings
31:56 – Q1 & Q2; Zaro: At what point do you decide that your model isn’t working? How do you account for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?
51:05 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM08: Watch out for The Bond Market Vigilantes ft. Jim Bianco
In today’s episode we are joined by Jim Bianco, the president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets.
Jim is a true master when it comes to providing objective, data-driven research with a unique perspective and is very generous when it comes to sharing it, which I’m sure you will agree with after listening to today’s conversation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- The uniqueness of the 2020 financial crisis
- How the Federal Reserve has been aggressively manipulating the bond markets
- The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
- The current retail stock market ‘mania’
- The only group who can bring bond markets down: The Bond Market Vigilantes
- The scale and risk of the Federal Reserve’s borrowing and money printing
- Implications of the recent, wild price swings in Oil
- How the Corona Virus may have accelerated trends that were already beginning to occur
- How the future may be bright, but the journey to get there may prove to be difficult
- Jim’s thoughts on how to be positioned for the times ahead
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Jim on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM07: The father of the Yield-Curve indicator ft. Campbell Harvey
In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago.
Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S., he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- The ‘Great Compression’ rather than another Great Depression
- How the Yield Curve indicator was signalling a mild recession even before the Corona crisis
- Why politician’s would rather have inflation than raise taxes
- How 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 were completely unaware of the risk of pandemics
- Why Bitcoin failed as a hedge in its first ever recession
- Why the US Dollar’s days as a world reserve currency are numbered
- Why central banks may now feel incentivised to create their own digital currencies
- Technology and how it’s going to unleash opportunities to transact value & human capital on a scale never seen before
- Cam’s somewhat rare, positive outlook for the future
- Why peer to peer transactions and lending will be the way forward
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Campbell on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI101: Howard Mark’s comments on managing risk and market cycles ft. Moritz Seibert
In this episode, we discuss the danger of financial products such as the Daily 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN, the potential end of the 2020 bull market in stocks, Howard Mark’s recent quotes on managing risk & market cycles, how a Trend Following mentality can have a positive affect on your world-view, patience for your system vs patience for an individual position, and why needing to ‘agree’ with your trades can be a dangerous idea. Questions we answer this week include: How do you avoid losing large open profits during a parabolic move? Is CAGR a good measure of performance?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:15 – Macro recap from Niels
04:10 – Weekly review of performance
11:25 – Howard Marks quotes on risk management and market cycles
29:11 – Patience for your system vs for an individual position
34:36 – Q1; Rene: How do you avoid losing a big profit during a parabolic move?
40:10 – Q2 & Q3; Peregrin: Do you have any evidence of systems working better when its positions match our opinion of the macro ‘story’? Does Trend Following system alert its manager to crowd opinions they might otherwise be unaware of?
48:48 – Q4; Maurigus: Is CAGR a good measure of performance?
57:06 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI100: How to filter your trades and staying unemotional ft. Jerry Parker
In this special anniversary edition of the Systematic Investor podcast, Jerry Parker joins us on the show to discuss why removing as many filters as possible may be beneficial to your trading system, why we could actually be living in the most ‘certain’ times in history, the importance of laser-like focus and unemotional trading during the best & worst periods, Jerry’s incredible story of despair to eventual victory as a Trading Turtle under Richard Dennis, the fallacy of aiming for the ‘perfect’ system, Cliff Asness’s quotes on Corey Hoffstein’s Flirting With Models podcast, the deep history of Trend Following, and a lot more!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction
03:13 – Macro recap from Niels
08:16 – Weekly review of performance
13:54 – The benefits of keeping it simple
17:20 – Why you should take every trade & follow your rules
26:16 – Jerry’s incredible story from his journey with Richard Dennis’s ‘Trading Turtles’
27:30 – Some more thoughts on Volatility Targeting
48:19 – The best performing sectors historically among Trend Followers
50:24 – The deep history of Trend Following investors
51:31 – Cliff Asness quotes from the Flirting With Models podcast
01:00:41 – Performance recap
01:31:00 – Some personal highlights, on our 100th episode
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM06: The hidden danger of Passive Investing ft. Michael Green
In today’s episode, we are joined by Michael Green. Michael has over 20 years as a portfolio manager, mainly in the global macro space. Recently he has become well known because of his work on the shift to passive investing, and inevitably this was one of the topics we wanted to ask Mike about. Our conversation wasn’t limited to that however, and we also discussed comparisons between the present day and previous historical crisis (going back to the Roman Empire!), as well as many other interesting subjects.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- Passive investing
- ETFs and target date funds
- Intergenerational inequality
- Real interest rates over history
- Mean reversion and momentum
- Negative interest rates
- Leverage: recourse vs no recourse (limited liability)
- MMT
- Yield enhancement strategies
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Michael on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI99: Trend Following on ETFs and how to safely invest more aggressively in stocks ft. Moritz Seibert
In today’s show, we discuss why a great defence is necessary for great portfolios, Trend Following on ETFs, why liquidity is often an under-appreciated factor when choosing markets, why you need to include shorts, tips for testing system code, why futures are better for short positions than stocks, and why investing in alternative strategies can allow you to be more aggressive when chasing stock market returns. We also answer some of your questions, including: What is your chosen measure of liquidity? Do you place your trades at the open, close, or other times?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:44 – Macro recap from Niels
03:00 – Weekly review of returns
04:25 – The importance of non-correlated strategies such as Trend Following or Volatility-based
15:17 – Q’s 1, 2 & 3; Bruno: What is your chosen measure of liquidity, and how liquid does a market have to be, to be included in your portfolios? How do you size positions, with co-movements in mind? Are you always trading the front-month contract?
26:37 – Q4; Walter: How do you test your system’s code?
33:14 – Q’s 5 & 6; Zack: Does Trend Following on ETFs work? What are the optimal time periods when analysing market correlation data?
45:01 – Q7: Michael: Do you place your trades at the close, open, or other times?
50:23 – Performance recap
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM05: FEDs reaction to the Global Pandemic ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth
Our guest today is Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill intelligence. One of the major themes of our podcast series so far has been the reactions of central banks to the global pandemic, and it’s likely effects on inflation and asset prices. As a former Fed insider, with nine years of experience as an advisor to the president of the Dallas Fed, Danielle is uniquely positioned to give us her take on the action taken by central banks so far, and what their next move is likely to be. However, our conversation was not just about the Fed, as it covered many other interesting topics including the curious timing of the US-China trade talks and when we first learned about COVID in the autumn of 2019 (one for conspiracy theorists!).
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- COVID-19
- QE and the transmission mechanism
- China
- US bond market
- Monetary policy rules and the choice of inflation measure
- Democracy: Revolution or direct democracy?
- China-US trade
- Inequality
- Negative interest rates
- Bitcoin and ‘Fedcoin’
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Danielle on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI98: The secret to John. W. Henry's (owner of Liverpool FC and Boston Red Sox) success ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, we’re delighted to welcome Mark Rzepczynski onto the show to discuss his time working with John W. Henry and what J. W. Henry’s ‘secret weapon’ was, the most effective way to gain downside protection, how to overcome behavioural biases in investing, how diversification can reduce profitability during huge trends, how to effectively make the case for Trend Following to potential investors, where returns dispersion among CTAs is stemming from, and one of our favourite topics: how many markets in a portfolio is too many?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:14 – Macro recap from Niels
02:53 – Weekly review of performance
05:55 – Niels: Can you tell us about your journey to where you are today?
10:24 – Niels: Do you think John Henry’s success in sports can be partly down to his previous Trend Following methodologies?
12:18 – Niels: How do think we as humans overcome our behavioural biases in investing?
14:32 – Moritz: To what extent do systematic CTAs need laser-like focus, compared to others?
17:57 – Moritz: How did the day-to-day business of John W. Henry run?
21:00 – Niels: What led to John W. Henry eventually dissolving his firm, and what have leading CTAs today, who have been around since then, done right to still be successful?
29:02 – Moritz: How many markets in a trading system are too many?
42:06 – Niels to Moritz: How do you really benefit from correlation-based position sizing?
49:35 – Mark to hosts: How do you utilise momentum ranking in your portfolios?
55:45 – Niels: Where do you think returns dispersion among CTAs stems is stemming from?
57:21 – Moritz: What can be done better, in terms of selling a strategy to potential clients?
01:10:16 – Niels: How do you get so many ideas for content for your blog?1:12:32 – Niels: Do you have specific times of the day to do your writing?1:13:55 – Moritz: Why is the concept of convexity so popular nowadays?
01:18:06 – Niels: What is the best downside protection, in your opinion?
01:23:05 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM04: Global Macro from a High Level ft. Larry McDonald
Today we are very lucky to welcome Larry McDonald as our guest. Larry is the founder of the Bear Traps report, and has extensive experience in consulting and investment banking. His bestselling book “A colossal failure of common sense”, described his time as a Vice President at Lehman brothers where Larry had a ringside view of the last financial crisis. Needless to say this gives him an interesting perspective on the current state of the global markets. Our very enjoyable conversation covered a wide range of topics from high level macro, across Silver and Copper, and down to individual stocks like Tesla.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- Risk Indicators
- Unemployment
- Modern Monetary Theory
- US Dollar
- Inequality
- Inflation
- Gold and Silver
- 2020 Election
- Tesla
- Warren Buffet
- Fed balance sheet
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Larry on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM03: The Dollar losing its Reserve Currency Status ft. Erik Townsend
Todays’ guest is Erik Townsend, host of the Macro voices podcast. Erik has an unusual background, as he had a very successful career as a technology entrepreneur before turning his hand to commodity trading. His background gives him a different perspective to many in the financial world, as we discovered in our conversation. Our discussion explored the possible consequences of the action taken by central banks in the last and current crisis; including rampant inflation, social unrest, and the overthrow of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. As Erik said towards the end of our conversation “Put your seatbelt on, there could be some rough turbulence ahead”!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode
- MMT
- Inflation outlook & inflation hedging
- QE
- China & Russia
- Civil unrest & revolution
- Digital global reserve currency
- Coronavirus
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Erik on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI97: Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase ft. Robert Carver
Today, Robert Carver joins us to discuss JP Morgan’s comments on markets being fabricated by central bank liquidity, Tesla’s incredible swings in market cap, thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase, the point at which diversification in a portfolio becomes dilution, and the benefits of diversifying among different Trend Following managers.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:45 – Check out the first 2 recent episodes of our Global Macro series
01:58 – Macro recap from Niels
03:18 – Weekly review of performance
11:44 – Thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase of the Dominion Energy’s natural gas pipelines & current Apple position
14:59 – Discussion on Mark Zepczynski’s article on being over-diversified
31:05 – Thoughts on AQR article regarding Tail Risk hedging
34:48 – Benchmark performance update
35:41 – Check out Rob Carver’s recent article on his blog
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM02: The failure of the Dollar ft. Preston Pysh
Our guest for today’s episode is Preston Pysh, founder of BuffetsBooks.com and co-host at The Investors Podcast network. As a graduate of both West Point and John Hopkins, Preston is certainly the only person we have interviewed who has both an MBA but can also fly a helicopter. Mostly in the interview we were talking about economics rather than military strategy, but the topic of a US/China war did come up briefly. Preston has spent a lot of time thinking about value investing, and some of the most interesting parts of our discussion centred around the effects that money printing and technological change have had for the traditional value investor. But we also had a wide ranging chat about many other topics, including Moritz’s current favourite: Bitcoin.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode
- Value Investing
- The correct discounting of future cash flows
- Demographic changes
- The debt cycle
- QE
- Berkshire Hathaway
- The fundamental case for huge returns on Bitcoin
- Yield curve control
- The failure of the dollar
- The connection between Bonds & Bitcoin prices
- Why countries should be doing their best to accumulate Bitcoin
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Preston on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM01: The COVID-19 Fallout ft. Julian Brigden
Our guest in todays episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- The consistency of the US dollar cycle
- The COVID related March funding squeeze
- Why Risk Parity strategies might be a bad idea going forward
- The many visible signs of ‘the Fourth Turning’ and why global markets are at an inflection point
- Unemployment
- Why recent Federal Reserve liquidity injections into the market may not have been part of Quantitative Easing (QE), which could still be yet to come
- Yield curve control
- The independence of the Fed
- Why Bitcoin may be a dangerous long-term investment
- Financial repression
- Why government bond yields may struggle to rise again
- The history of global pandemics
- How market cycles tend to repeat themselves
- The importance of central bank policies when trying to gauge markets
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Julian on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI96: How RobinHood really makes its profits ft. Moritz Seibert
On today’s episode, we discuss the clear link between stock market prices & the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the widening gap between the best & worst CTA performances, the influx of retail money into the stock market, how RobinHood makes its profits despite offering free trading, bond prices and what they may be telling us about the future, how CTAs might now be swinging back to the long side, and how lofty expectations are driving many stock prices unexpectedly higher.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:21 – Global macro review
02:42 – Weekly review of performance
05:15 – How lofty expectations are driving stock market prices
08:25 – What bond markets are telling us about the long prospects for equities
13:13 – Why we may be heading for an inflationary environment
19:05 – How CTA positioning is beginning to swing to the long side of equities
21:20 – Article on downside protection by Mark Zepczynski
28:29 – Article on high CTA returns dispersion by Mark Zepczynski
30:23 – Unveiling of guests, & more info, about our upcoming mini-series
44:47 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO117: Judging A “Book” By Its Cover
How investors are easily swayed by misleading titles... costing them dearly.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO116: Are US Treasuries Still Safe?
Are US Treasuries as safe as many investor think?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO115: Trend or Value Investing...why not Both?
Meb Faber explains how to combine Trend Following with Buy & Hold.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO114: Why Too few Invest with CTAs
Meb Faber on why investors are underinvested in Trend Following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO113: Asset Allocation Using Correlations
How to allocate a portfolio, accounting for market correlations?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI95: Jim Simon’s quotes on overriding your system and how to size your positions ft. Moritz Seibert
This week, we give our thoughts on the inaccuracies of CTA replicator models, static risk versus dynamic risk, ways to approach variable position sizing, the power of a system being ‘good enough’, Jim Simon’s quotes on overriding your systems, and the recent accusation that CTAs are driving the stock market upward. Questions answered this week include: What elements of my trading system should I look to expand, if it’s going well? Can I diversify using stock sectors only? What are your thoughts on Volatility Targeting?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:16 – Global macro review
04:04 – Weekly review of performance
07:41 – The inaccuracies of typical CTA replicator models
22:28 – Jim Simons quotes on overriding trading models
24:34 – Question One; Will: So far, my trading system is successful, and I am looking to expand it. Should I expand it to include an additional look-back period, market(s), or trading strategy? Could you recommend any reliable data sources?
31:57 – Question Two; Abishek: Can I diversify using different stock sectors only?
35:28 – Question Three; Noah: What are your views on Volatility Targeting?
47:57 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO112: Combining Fundamental & Systematic Investing. Does it work?
Combining fundamental macro with price data. Does it work?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO111: Educating Financial Advisors About Systematic Investing
How to educate financial advisors about Trend Following strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO110: Change vs Inconsistency
The differences between changes leading to improvement & changes leading to inconsistency.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO109: Leverage & Volatility
What level of Leverage should you use?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO108: The Case For Being Longer-Term & Systematic
Jim O’Shaughnessy’s paper from 1987 confirms our thesis.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI94: Markets to avoid in Systematic Investing and David Harding interview ft. Moritz Seibert
In today’s episode, we discuss David Harding’s interview from 2013 with the SEC Historical Society, possible mistakes to avoid in Systematic Investing, if there are any differences between market confidence and the strength of a Trend, thoughts on Excel vs Python, and the importance of preserving capital during bad periods. We also answer your questions, including: Does the rise of Volatility trading have any effect on the effectiveness of Trend Following strategies? How is trend strength calculated?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:27 – Weekly review of performance
07:38 – David Harding interview with the SEC
14:44 – Richard Dennis quotes
15:57 – Hedge Nordic magazine article featuring Niels & Rob Carver
18:44 – Question One; Brian: Does the rise of Volatility Trading affect Trend Following strategies?
33:48 – Question Two; Brian: How is Trend Strength calculated?
41:37 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO107: Roughly Right or Precisely Wrong
Why Trend Following strategies aren’t perfect.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO106: The Perfect Portfolio
What would the ‘perfect portfolio’ look like?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO105: How to Trade Fixed Income
How & where to trade Interest Rates.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO104: What (really) Defines A Trend Following Trader?
What defines a Trend Following trader?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI93: Howard Mark’s latest memo, TESLA and Wirecard ft. Moritz Seibert
This week, we discuss the possible effects of recent bans on short selling, Howard Mark’s latest memo on the recent rally in asset prices, the Wirecard debacle of losing $1.9billion, Tesla’s ascension to having the largest market cap of all car manufacturers in the world, the benefits of Trend Following in a diversified portfolio, the power of non-correlated strategies combined, and the secret sauce of Trend Following. Questions we answer include: How do Central Bank policies affect Trend Following strategies? Are some markets more prone to trends than others?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:40 – Howard Marks memo on the recent rally in asset prices (The Anatomy of A Rally)
03:41 – Weekly review of performance
07:31 – The banning of short-selling
13:49 – Tesla trading above $1000 for the 1st time
19:43 – Question One; Thomas: How do central bank policies affect Trend Following?
36:45 – Question Two; Stratesdown: How many strategies should I run on each market?
47:21 – Question Three; Brian: Are some markets more prone to trends than others?
51:35 – Announcement of new Top Traders Unplugged mini-series
53:11 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO103: Trend Following Explained in Less Than 15 Words
Why the term ‘Managed Futures’ may be misleading for some.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO102: Treating Markets Differently...True or False?
Should you treat some markets differently?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO101: Ignoring Short-Term Performance...even if it's Hard to do
How much does luck play a part in short-term results?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO100: Embracing Both Longs & Shorts
Why aiming for a balance of longs & shorts in your portfolio may be beneficial.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO99: Which Month of Futures Contracts should You Trade?
Which month of futures contracts should you trade?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO98: The Cutoff Point For Equity Drawdowns...When Enough is Enough
At what point does a drawdown become too much, before action has to be taken?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI92: How to add robustness to your trading and choosing the right time horizon ft. Robert Carver
Robert Carver joins us back on the show to discuss why simulating ‘noisy’ data in your backtest can add to robustness, how similar strategies can still result in widely varying returns, how to choose the right look-back period, trading continuous vs binary systems, and how much automation should be used when running a system.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:06 – Global Macro Discussion
04:24 – Macro recap from Niels
06:02 – Weekly review of performance
13:57 – Choosing the right look-back period/time-frame
24:54 – Adding noise to your backtest
30:54 – Using capital more efficiently
42:06 – Binary vs continuous systems
57:32 – How automated should your system be?
01:06:36 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO97: The Most Influential Look-back Period and How to Find it
Which timeframe holds the most influence on markets?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO96: Correlations Among Sectors & Asset Classes
Dealing with correlations on different asset classes.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO95: Fully Systematic or Manual Overrides?
Discussion on Bill Eckhardt’s comments on adding discretion to Systematic Trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO94: Dollar Cost Averaging Strategies..do the (really) work?
Do losers really average losers?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI91: Disconnect between stock market prices and their expected returns ft. Moritz Seibert
Today we discuss the disconnect between stock market prices & their expected returns based on economic data, why current p&l may not reflect the quality of your positions, and the potential role of central banks in the future. Questions we answer include: How do you reduce futures rollover costs? How often should a Trend Follower look at their portfolio?
Documentaries mentioned: The Fourth Turning Explained and Prince of the Yen
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:08 – Macro recap from Niels
03:18 – Weekly review of performance
09:07 – Global macro discussion
29:11 – Abhishek: Question 1: How do you reduce the problem of futures rollover costs?
32:37 – Tim: Question 2: How often should you look at your portolio?
35:00 – Karl: Question 3: How many positions should I have open at 0.5% equity risk per trade?
40:38 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO93: Increasingly Short-Term Expectations
Can you really be hedged from 2-3pm?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO92: Volatility: The New Player In Town
Chris Cole on Volatility… from a statistic to a tradable asset.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO91: Is Trend Following Too Crowded?
Is Trend Following becoming too crowded?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO90: Can AI Trading Models Really Work?
Thoughts on AI trading systems, and how they handled the crash of 2020.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO89: How To Approach Risk Management
A dive into Volatility Scaling as part of your Risk Management framework.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI90: How to make 3000% in a month and why CTAs are the perfect portfolio ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker rejoins us today to discuss how single stocks behave differently to indexes, knowing when to ignore your backtests, multi-strategy CTAs vs trend following CTAs, how to make 3000% in a month, why CTAs should be considered the ‘perfect portfolio’ rather than ‘crisis alpha’, and how luck plays a part in past returns. Questions we answer include: What is the shortest timeframe you look at? What positions are you mainly in at the moment?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:51 – Macro recap from Niels
03:13 – Weekly review of performance
51:23 – Question 1; Brian: What are the main positions that you are in at the moment?
53:56 – Questions 2; Daniel: Does it matter how something has made a breakout?
57:50 – Questions 3, 4 & 5; James: What is the shortest timeframe you look at? Can Jerry share how his equity portfolio has faired during the Covid-19 crisis? How should you space apart chosen look-back periods?
01:18:30 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO88: When To Modify Your System...the $64,000 Question
How to know when you should modify your system or take discretionary decisions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO87: Incorporating Correlations Into Your Strategy
How should you think about market correlations when designing your investment strategy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO86: Should You Trade All Markets the Same Way?
An explanation of why you may trade some markets differently, rather than treat all signals the same.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO85: Investments that (really) Work During Market Turmoil
A look into strategies that worked during the recent market turmoil.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI89: Trend Following EFTs and Asness vs Taleb ft. Rufus Rankin
We’re joined by special guest, Rufus Rankin of Ampersand Investment Management, to discuss Trend Following ETFs, the definition of a truly diversified portfolio, flat-fees versus performance-based fees, how to choose between different managers, learning from Q1 2020, predicting CTA returns, and the recent public spat between Cliff Asness & Nassim Taleb. Questions we answer include: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in client interest after this year’s stock market crash? What non-USA or Europe markets are CTAs currently interested in?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:26 – Macro recap from Niels
04:06 – Weekly review of performance
07:20 – Niels: How what was your journey into this industry?
08:57 – Niels: How did you end up allocating capital to CTAs?
10:05 – Niels: Do you view Trend Following as a philosophy?
12:50 – Niels: What are your thoughts about truly diversified portfolios?
17:28 – Moritz; If we can’t forecast CTA returns, do you think we should allocate capital to as many CTAs as possible?
20:02 – Niels: What percent of a whole portfolio would you recommend to Trend Following, and what would investors be comfortable with?
19:02 – Moritz; Do you only allocate to Trend Following CTAs?
22:41 – Moritz; Do you consider yourselves to be a ‘fund of funds’?
23:11 – Moritz; How do you handle client pressure surrounding double-layering of fees?
24:17 – Niels: Who do you think drives the demand for flat-fees, rather than performance-based fees?
26:03 – Niels: What do you think of cheap Trend Following replication products versus full-cost, long-established, Trend Following funds?
30:16 – Moritz: Do you still think CTAs are worth their performance fees?
32:30 – Niels: How do you choose between different managers?
35:19 – Moritz: When do you stop adding CTAs to your portfolio, for diversification?
37:15 – Moritz: How do you gain exposure to your chosen CTAs?
38:44 – Niels: How has 2020 been for you so far?
40:09 – Niels: What are some of the things you learned from Q1 2020?
42:52 – Moritz: How has machine learning added value during Q1 2020?
44:41 – Question 1; Michael: Have you ever considered creating a Trend Following ETF?
48:49 – Niels: Would Trend Following ETFs be required to disclose the rules of the strategies?
44:41 – Questions 2&3; Brian: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in investor interest, post the 2020 market crash? What non-USA or EU markets are CTAs currently interested in?
53:31 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO84: How Many Markets Are Too Many?
Is there an optimal number of markets to trade? We give you our views.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO83: What Does Diversification Really Mean?
Rob Carver describes diversification, portfolio construction, & correlations.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO82: Trend Following & the 2020 COVID Crash
Trend Following during a Time of Crisis.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO81: Trend Following Terms Explained
Convexity, Crisis Alpha, Smart Beta, and Implied Volatility…what does it all mean?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO80: How Big Is the Trend Following Space...Really?
How much AUM is really in Trend Following & who are the players?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI88: The Holy Grail for eliminating risk completely ft. Robert Carver
Robert Carver joins us to discuss the huge outperformance year-to-date of systematic funds vs discretionary funds, negative prices & their effects on market participants, systematising volatility strategies, whether there is a Holy Grail for eliminating risk completely, Newfound Research’s article on Options Straddles & Trend Following, and where we currently see the strongest trends in our portfolios.
Article mentioned: Straddles & Trend Following by Newfound Research
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:32 – Macro recap from Niels
04:15 – Weekly review of performance
01:07:37 – Question 1; Brian: Where do you see the strongest trends in your portfolio?
01:08:34 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO79: When The Evidence Isn’t Enough
CTAs have found (the hard way) that conveying the facts may not be as enticing as telling a good story.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO78: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator & Markets Today vs the 1920s
The eery accuracy of the infamous 1920s book, which still holds true today. Maybe markets really haven’t changed that much?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO77: Expected Returns & Unexpected Drawdowns
Why CTA & S&P500 returns are often wrongly compared.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO76: The Biggest Behavioural Bias
Today we discuss the "mother of all biases".
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO75: Volatility vs Risk and why Investors keeps getting this mixed up!
Why Volatility differs from Risk, and how it may even be considered your friend.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI87: Dealing with stress when you bring down a bank ft. Nick Leeson
We’re joined today by special guest Nick Leeson, who is famous for the collapse of Barings Bank, one the oldest banks in the world at the time, to discuss liquidity risk in the markets, dealing with stress in extraordinary situations, the benefits of asking yourself the difficult questions, problems when interpreting vast amounts of data, what Nick looks for when investing today, the importance of communicating your feelings, and lots more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:43 – Macro recap from Niels
03:16 – Weekly review of performance
05:18 – Niels: What key decisions have shaped your life so far?
07:59 – Niels: Can you describe the period between 1992 & 1995?
12:44 – Niels: What do you remember about the supposed ‘complex’ products that your were trading?
16:19 – Moritz: What was it like trading in Indonesia?
20:06 – Moritz: How did you end up being sent abroad to run a business for a bank?
26:34 – Moritz: What type of products did you trade at the SIMEX?
29:32 – Niels: What are things you look for in a person or organisation you would want to invest with?
34:57 – Niels: You advise large businesses, so what are the discussions you are currently having with your clients?
49:39 – Moritz:What was your thinking & process while attempting to recover huge losses?
55:41 – Niels: Do you talk with your clients about a market’s liquidity risk?
58:53 – Niels: How has electronic trading made markets more liquid or less liquid?
01:02:16 – Niels: Do you see similarities between today’s scandals, and the behavious of past financial scandals?
01:05:49 – Moritz: How do you trade today, and what do you think is important is for good trading?
01:11:23 – Niels: Describe how you’ve dealt with stress throughout extraordinary situations?
01:17:01 – Niels: What are the key things you try to teach your kids, based on your experiences?
01:18:57 – Benchmark performance update
01:19:57 – Moritz: Tell us about Bull And Bear Cap?
01:21:51 – Moritz: Are you continually asked about your history with Barings Bank?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO74: Patience & Persistence
Why having patience and keeping yourself in the right environment is vital to good investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO73: Four C’s of Good Investing: Conviction
Having conviction is about having a justified belief in your strategy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO72: Four C’s of Good Investing: Courageousness
Being a good rules-based Investor can be a lonely road, and takes courage to follow.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO71: Four C’s of Good Investing: Clarity
How to get Clarity and remove the noise of the markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO70: Four C’s of Good Investing: Consistency
How a few simple rules were 97% more accurate than predictions from a variety of experts, in fields like stock picking.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI86: Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting ft. Moritz Seibert
Today, we discuss comments from Warren Buffett in the recent Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, AQR Capital’s recent research finding pure Trend Following strategies to be a better hedge in bear markets than Options strategies, the oil market & the USO ETF, how commodities are great diversifiers which often outperform equities, how to think about market inefficiencies, and why it’s never too late to invest into Trend Following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:53 – Macro recap from Niels
07:24 – Weekly review of returns
40:38 – Alastair: Questions 1/2/3: How do you pick which month futures contract to trade? Is there any possible alpha in how you roll a futures contract? What is your overall reason for doing what you do in the markets?
52:22 – Top Tweet
53:49 – Performance recap
56:35 – Announcement of next week’s special guest, Nick Leeson
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO69: Process over Outcome
Why a winning or losing bet may not mean that it was a good or bad decision.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO68: The Simple Secret to Overcome Emotions when Investing
How a tried & tested strategy can offset the emotional risk when Investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO67: Why Investors are Naturally Risk Averse
Daniel Crosby explains how our bodies shut our brains down & how this causes bad Investing behaviour.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO66: Why Investors (always) Fall for a Good Story
Why we desire a good story & the effect this has on our investments.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO65: The 4 Biases of Bad Investing Behaviour
Daniel Crosby on Ego, Overconfidence, Emotion & Attention biases.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI85: Similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020 ft. Nick Radge
Today, special guest Nick Radge joins us on the show to discuss similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020, the players behind the recent Oil volatility, the importance of avoiding trading paralysis, how to behave like a successful investor, developing different strategies for different market environments, how Nick fell in love with Trend Following from an early age, and more. Questions we answer include: How do you incorporate risk management into your strategies? What trading books do you recommend?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:05 – Macro recap from Niels
04:04 – Weekly review of performance
05:42 – Niels: For some context, tell us about little about your journey in trading so far.
17:58 – Niels: How have you made Trend Following strategies work on stocks?
22:48 – Niels: Why have you chosen to only trade equities on the long-side?
34:21 – Niels: How do you operate your different types of trading systems? Do you always run them at the same time?
38:37 – Moritz: How do you help your clients today?
48:29 – Moritz: Do your clients ever have enough impact on the market to cause you to adapt your systems?
53:07 – Niels: Do you operate your US stocks portfolio the same as on Australian stocks?
58:47 – Niels: Are the Australian equity markets liquid?
01:00:53 – Niels: Why do you think the recent crash is similar to 1987?
01:16:30 – Question 1: Michael; How do you incorporate Risk Management into your system?
01:24:19 – Questions 2&3: Michael; How should I size positions for trades based on Moving Averages? Can you recommend any Trading books, especially related to Risk Management?
01:30:40 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO64: The Most CounterIntuitive Human Behaviour in Investing
Why working harder doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll achieve better results.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO63: The Behavioural Gap
Why the rules of good Investing are often a 180 degrees opposite to Human nature.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO62: How Simple Rules Cure Sick Portfolios
How simple rules eradicated an incurable disease in Africa, and how this can be related to good Investing behaviour.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO61: Overrated Knowledge & the Neglect of Behavioural Finance
Daniel Crosby describes how knowledge can sometimes do very little to change Human behaviour, and so may not be as important as people think.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO60: Improving a Broken Model...can it be done?
Listener question on how to improve a strategy that seems to be broken. Should you take an overall approach, or discard any particular markets that haven’t trended for a while?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI84: Is pyramiding a bad strategy? and how many markets to trade? ft. Robert Carver
We’re joined today by Robert Carver to discuss why classical Trend Following strategies did well in the recent selloff, the risks in OTC trading, why it’s important to diversify across different managers, the varying recent returns of Renaissance Technologies and AHL, and how Robert Carver approaches volatility, scaling & portfolio construction during a crisis. Questions answered this week include: Are 20 markets enough for a diversified portfolio? Is pyramiding a bad strategy? Should I prioritise signals that agree on multiple timeframes?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Macro recap from Niels
03:14 – Weekly review of performance
59:25 – Questions 1, 2 & 3; Gary: Are 20 markets enough for a diversified portfolio? Should I prioritise signals that agree on multiple timeframes? Is pyramiding a bad strategy?
01:24:56 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO59: Howard Marks & the Definition of Buying Low
Howard Mark’s recent thoughts on the importance of ‘buying low’, and what really constitutes ‘buying low’.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO58: The Balance between Innovation, Evolution and Stickability
Why clients would benefit from lock-up periods, and the difference between evolving your strategies or sticking with it.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO57: A.I. Strategies With Human Biases
Are A.I. programmers unknowingly passing their human biases into the algorithms?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO56: Sticking with Your System through the Good & the Bad Times
The benefits of sticking with your system through good & bad times, even in the face of client pressure. Also why Investors benefit from not looking at their portfolios too frequently.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI83: Responsible Investing and how to cope with extreme volatility ft. Moritz Seibert
In this episode, we discuss how Trend Following strategies are able to cope with the extra volatility around huge world events, Transtrend’s recent article on responsible investing and why that includes the ability to short a market, the current oil situation, and recent interview appearances by Ray Dalio and Danielle DiMartino Booth. Questions answered this week include: Can Trend Following do well in a hyper inflationary environment? Have you discovered anything new from the 2020 Crash?
Interviews mentioned: Danielle DiMartino Booth on Valuetainment and Ray Dalio on TED
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:55 – Macro recap from Niels
07:06 – Weekly review of performance
08:09 – Top Tweets
36:58 – Craig: Question 1: Can Trend Following do well in a hyper-inflationary environment?
46:31 – George: Question 2: Have you discovered anything new from the 2020 crash?
53:49 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO55: What Does It Take To Be A Successful Trader?
Bill Dreiss shares his opinion on what it takes to be a successful Trader.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO54: Embracing Volatility
Bill Dreiss discusses embracing the uncontrollable nature of Volatility, and explains some of the dangers of what he calls ‘warehousing risk.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO53: Trend Trading vs Mean Reverting – What Should You Trade?
Discussion on some of the reasons why Trend Following works, but why paradoxically, investors are lured toward mean-reversion.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO52: Thoughts on Risk Management and Leverage
Bill Dreiss shares some of his thoughts on Risk Management and Leverage.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO51: Insights to a Unique System Design
Bill Dreiss takes us under the hood of his system, and explains why it’s so unique.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI82: Is Machine Learning and AI just a marketing ploy? ft. Harold de Boer
Special guest, Harold de Boer of Transtrend, joins us on the show today to discuss why the recent returns disparity among CTAs might be good for the industry, the benefits of investing in more than one Trend Following fund, if the term ‘machine learning’ should be considered as a marketing ploy, what makes a strategy robust, why unsupervised ‘black box’ strategies may be riskier than more traditional strategies, how much the markets have changed over time, some thoughts on volatility targeting, and how CTAs can differentiate themselves in the eyes of investors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:18 – Macro recap from Niels
03:14 – Weekly review of performance
06:56 – Niels: What do you make of the huge returns dispersion of CTAs during the recent market crash?
14:14 – Niels: What causes managers to have similar results?
16:42 – Moritz: Is the adoption of Machine Learning & AI more than just a marketing ploy?
25:58 – Niels: How CTAs differentiate themselves from each other, in the eyes of investors?
28:57 – Niels: Why are investors usually least invested in Trend Following strategies around the time when they need it most?
30:00 – Moritz: What is the Transtrend story?
33:14 – Moritz: How do you use synthetic markets?
35:08 – Niels; Why have you decided to lower the amount of markets you trade?
38:36 – Niels; How do you avoid taking on too much counter party risk?
45:49 – Moritz: How do you approach market correlations?
49:53 – Moritz: As a liquidity provider, what happens when orders aren’t filled?
52:55 – Moritz: Do you have any concerns, as a liquidity provider?
55:43 – Niels: Who do you think market regulators need to take a look at?
59:01 – Moritz: Would you like it if markets were only open for a short amount of time per day?
01:02:26 – Moritz: Do you believe that trading commodities hurt the producers in any way?
01:12:06 – Niels: Have markets changed?
01:13:36 – Niels: How do CTAs avoid client redemptions during a crisis, purely because they’re the only liquids funds left?
01:16:25 – Niels: What do you think is important when it comes to robustness?
01:18:56 – Moritz: What’s your view on volatility targeting?
01:22:18 – Niels: What are your thoughts on the belief that Trend Following is overcrowded?
01:24:56 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO50: Why Trend Following (Still) Works
We explain why Trend Following will continue to perform over time.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO49: Do markets drive Performance or is it Skill?
How markets drive performance more so than skill, and why you need to trade longer-term.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO48: Exploiting the Fractal Nature of Markets in a Systematic Way
Bill Dreiss talks about his interest in Elliot Wave analysis & the Fractal nature of markets, and how he successfully have used this approach since the 1970s.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO47: Our Worst Trade
We go down memory lane and discuss our worst trades, and what we learned from them.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO46: When should You stay Out of a Market?
We discuss when a Trend Follower would be neither Long nor Short.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI81: Why simple ideas can often be more robust than complex ideas ft. Moritz Seibert
Today, we discuss the benefits of focusing on highly liquid markets, why Trend Following strategies are usually less risky & volatile in any market environment, how simple ideas can often be more robust than complex ideas, whether there’s a place for discretion in trading systems, why a manager’s true aims may not be what you were are expecting, and how emotional intelligence disappears during times of stress. Questions we answer include: Should I have fewer positions, and risk more per trade? How do you deal with a market’s sudden loss of liquidity? How does open equity affect upcoming position sizes?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:21 – Macro recap from Niels
05:57 – Weekly review of performance
08:09 – Top Tweets
41:53 – Francois: Question 1: How did you handle the huge drop in Oil?
45:18 – Mike: Questions 2/3: How do you handle futures capacity constraints? A large trend will likely attract many Trend Followers, how does this affect your position sizing?
01:00:00 – James: Question 4: How do you deal with gap-downs in a market’s liquidity?
01:01:31 – Dave: Question 5: How does open trade equity affect future position sizing?
01:04:44 – Dante: Question 6: Should I use fewer positions & risk more per trade?
01:11:08 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO45: Should You Adjust Your Position Size During A Trade?
Is increasing or reducing an existing position during a trade, something you should do?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO44: How much should I Allocate to Trend Following?
What is the perfect allocation percentage to Trend Following, and other assets, in a diversified portfolio?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO43: Are CTAs Causing Market Sell-Offs?
JP Morgan blames CTA strategies for causing large market selloffs. We give our view!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO42: The value of Big Data & AI will be Tested during the Coronavirus Turmoil
Can you really figure out the markets by using ‘Big Data’ and ‘AI’?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO41: How to Deal with Clients During Drawdowns
How you deal with clients during drawdowns and how you manage expectations can make or break your business?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI80: Why uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable ft. Eric Crittenden
This week, special guest Eric Crittenden joins us on the show to discuss: the importance of being able to trade short positions, how the best Trend Following strategies have proven their worth in this current environment, why Trend Following can be regarded as a Contrarian Strategy, whether or not ETFs are safe investments, when being 1st place can be as detrimental as coming last, why the most uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable, why you can’t time entries into a Trend Following fund, how too much AUM can hinder returns, and why there is so much returns dispersion among CTAs today.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Macro recap from Niels
03:12 – Weekly review of performance
06:51 – Niels: How did you get to where you are today?
08:00 – Niels: What persuaded you to embrace Trend Following?
11:48 – Moritz: Do you believe Trend Following works because it’s difficult to do?
17:05 – Niels: What do you think it takes nowadays to be a successful investor?
21:38 – Niels: Do you think the speed of the current meltdown is surprising?
30:17 – Moritz: Is the Trend Following space overcrowded, and are its results decaying?
48:31 – Niels: What do you think of Trend Following on individual stocks?
52:42 – Niels: Are concerned about the stability of ETFs?
56:09 – Moritz: Do you have any concerns about the money passively allocated to ETFs?
58:30 – Moritz: Did you imply Trend Following on individual stocks isn’t worth it, after fees?
01:02:51 – Niels: Can you explain your ‘3 Narratives’, starting with ‘The Experiment’?
01:09:45 – Niels: Tell us about the next narrative, ‘The Crazy Gym’?
01:13:58 – Niels: What about the 3rd narrative, ‘Michelle & her 2 advisors’?
01:18:21 – Eric: Moritz, would you like to talk about recent trades in the energy sector?
01:29:50 – Benchmark performance update
01:31:56 – Niels: Eric is there anything else you would like to bring up in closing?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO40: Does Jerry Parker Trade Synthetic Instruments?
Discussion on whether or not to trade Synthetic Instruments.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO39: Can Market Timing using Technical Indicators be Profitable?
Discussion a recent Barron’s article which says that the 200-Day Moving Average no longer works – perhaps Barron’s have changed their mind after March 2020?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO38: Systematic vs Discretionary Investing
We discuss The Curious Investor podcast episode on Systematic vs Discretionary Investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO37: Does Trend Following still work? Comments from David Harding, Cliff Asness & Stanley Druckenmiller
“Experts” claim that the character of the markets has changed in recent years. We discuss comments from David Harding, Stanley Druckenmiller & Cliff Asness, relating to Trend Following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO36: The Time It Takes To Stick With Your Rules
Today we discuss a listener question, regarding the usual time it takes before being able to follow a Trading System religiously.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI79: A historical volatile week put into perspective ft. Robert Carver
We’re joined on the show today by special guest Robert Carver, to discuss another historically volatile week in the markets, the differences between today’s bear market and 2008, how Robert defines portfolio diversification, how many markets a profitable Trend Following system should trade, the different types of strategies that Robert currently uses, the amount of truly uncorrelated assets available, and volatility scaling as a part of risk management. Questions answered this week include: What causes you to modify your system over time, and how do you go about this? What have you learnt from trading through previous crisis periods? What are your thoughts on AI technology?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:09 – Macro recap from Niels
04:03 – Weekly review of performance
08:09 – Niels: How have you dealt with the recent volatility?
19:44 – Niels: What does diversification mean to you?
28:35 – Niels: How many markets can be considered too many for a diversified Trend Following system to trade?
41:10 – Moritz: What type of different strategies do you currently trade?
46:27 – Niels: What has helped you to do well during recently, especially during the recent market turmoil?
51:17 – Niels: Why have you chosen to trade different markets differently, rather than treating all markets the same?
01:03:18 – Seth; Question 1: How do you incorporate correlations into building a Trend Following program?
01:09:40 – Moritz; Question 2: What causes you modify your system over time, and how do you go about this?
01:14:37 – Niels: What, in your opinion, is a good risk management framework? What have you learnt from trading previous crisis periods?
01:22:09 – Niels: What are your thoughts on AI technology?
01:27:20 – Moritz: What are your thoughts on the possibility of Trend Following becoming too crowded?
01:36:12 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO35: A Month in the Life of a CTA
Today we discuss a question from the audience about what goes on in the life of a CTA.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO34: More Fiction in Excel than in Word
The likeliness to curve fit data from backtests, and get excited about numbers which may not materialise.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO33: Howard Marks & Limiting Downside Potential
When Howard Marks speaks, we should all pay attention. And today’s topic about focusing on the Risk rather than the Upside in your portfolio…is just up our street!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO32: Trend Following: The Perfect Hedge, or the Perfect Portfolio?
We discuss why we believe that Trend Following could rightly be viewed as the Perfect Portfolio, and sometimes the Perfect Hedge.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO31: Equity Indices – Who Wants To Be Average?
Why do equity investors aim to be average? And how to aim for more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI78: Tom Basso’s research on higher Trend Following returns as volatility increases
This week, we discuss the potential benefits of investing in more than one systematic fund, Tom Basso’s research finding that Trend Following returns increase as market volatility increases, the process behind Moritz’s discretionary trade last week, sizing positions according to volatility, the historic rally in government bonds, and the importance of good risk management. Questions we answer include: What software do you use to manage and monitor your portfolios? How much importance do you place on pyramiding into & out of positions? Have you found that some markets trend better than others?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:26 – Macro recap from Niels
03:00 – Weekly review of performance
29:11 – Top Tweets
50:16 – Dante; Question 1: What software do you use to monitor your portfolios?
52:15 – Andrew; Question 2: How much importance do you place on the effect of pyramiding into & out of positions?
59:28 – Mike; Question 3: Do you size positions based on volatility, and how does this affect correlations?
01:04:12 – James; Question 4: Do you believe particular markets ‘trend’ better than others?
01:11:44 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO30: Historical Data, Backtests, & Track Records
What is the optimal time frame when analysing a track record & why can seemingly correlated strategies have very different returns?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO29: Trend Following vs Buy & Hold
Want to know what the real benefit of Trend Following is, compared to the traditional Buy & Hold method? Find out in today’s episode…there may be more benefits than meets the eye at first glance.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO28: Long Trades Vs. Short Trades
You may be surprised of the difference between how well Short and Long trades perform…but why it’s still important to trade both.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO27: 2019 In Review – The Investor’s RetroSpective
End of 2019 wrap up, with thoughts on Bonds, Bitcoin, the decade just gone by, and the connection between Netflix & Dominos Pizza.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI77: Trading through the quickest 10% correction in stock market history
After the quickest 10% correction straight from an all-time-high in stock market history last week, we discuss how human emotions & behaviours played their part, the threat of the coronavirus and its effect on world economies, why a week is too short a time to judge if CTAs are providing ‘crisis alpha’, and why short-term systems should have performed really well during the selloff. Questions we cover include: How do you define ‘signal strength’? Do you use stop-losses, and if so, how? Can you apply Trend Following systems to micro futures contracts?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:20 – Macro recap from Niels
03:00 – Weekly review of performance
14:13 – Top Tweets
39:45 – Brian; Question 1: Have any of your guests mentioned the use of different rules for different markets?
44:25 – Jacob; Question 2: What are the criteria for deciding to change your rules?
51:29 – Adrian; Question 3: How do you define signal strength?
55:46 – Jonathan; Question 4: If you use stop-losses, how do you use them?
01:02:51 – Craig; Question 5: How regularly should you communicate with your clients?
01:08:20 – Russ; Question 6: Can I apply a trend following trading system to micro futures contracts?
01:11:22 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI76: Can trading too many markets prevent you from achieving above average returns?
In today’s episode, we discuss whether attempting to trade every market at the same time may hinder any conviction necessary for above-average returns, as well as debate the difference between a portfolio with plenty of trades across lots of different markets versus one with less positions among fewer markets. We also cover the Hedge Fund Journal’s recent interview with Harold De Boer of Transtrend, the amount of truly uncorrelated markets available to trade, how much discretion should be used during the design & implementation of a systematic trading strategy, and if the accusation is true that CTAs are the main catalyst behind price shocks.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:13 – Macro recap from Niels
02:33 – Weekly review of returns
06:52 – Top Tweets
47:36 – Michael; Question 1: Who inspired you into Trend Following trading?
59:16 – Performance recap
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future
On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:12 – Macro recap from Niels
02:59 – Weekly review of performance
05:23 – Top Tweets
34:12 – Michael; Question 1: Would avoiding all S&P500 stocks improve a Trend Following system?
36:57 – Chris; Question 2: Can you explain the term ‘Vol Targeting’?
43:40 – Adrian: Question 3: What recent client requests have you refused to accommodate, when it comes to altering either your strategies, or your business?
53:31 – Francois; Comment related to recent episodes where we discussed Trend Following on equities
57:24 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI74: Trading TESLA during its parabolic move
This week, we discuss how Jerry approached his Tesla trade during last week’s parabolic move up, the value of sleeping well at night in comparison to chasing maximum returns, whether Trend Following models can be successfully tilted toward ESG (Sustainable) Investments, thoughts on Negative & Positive Skew, the perceived drawbacks of CTA diversification when stocks are going up, and we also compare Trend Following on stocks, to a fully diversified, Trend Following system. Questions we answer this week include: What do you do next when you have a significant amount of new AUM? Do you have any tips or methods, whether psychologically or built into your models, for handling euphoric gains? How many markets, and how much allocation to each market, do you recommend when constructing a Trading Universe?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:08 – Macro recap from Niels
01:44 – Weekly review of performance
04:59 – Top Tweets
18:45 – Announcement of special guest Eric Crittenden, from Standpoint Asset Management, joining us on the show in a few weeks
26:21 – Jacob; Question 1: When you have a significant amount of new available equity, what do you do next?
32:57 – James; Question 2: How do you manage a position that makes a Parabolic move, such as Tesla?
41:18 – Matt: Question 3: What methods do you use to handle euphoric gains?
01:01:51 – Camron; Question 4: What is the best way to compile a Trading Universe? How many markets, and how much allocation to each market?
01:04:42 – Sam; Question 5: Are you aware of any Trend Following Traders who tilt towards ESG (Sustainable Investing)?
01:07:23 – Seth; In response to last week’s request to listeners, shares how he thinks TF should be best described as an important part of your portfolio
01:10:30 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI73: How too much experience can work against your investments
On today’s show, we discuss when having lots of experience can sometimes work against you, why hard and fast rules can be better than making discretionary decisions, the importance of trading in appropriate position sizes, the amount of drawdown that will likely cause you to deviate from your system, the unpopularity of Trend Following strategies, creating an adaptive portfolio that can respond to market conditions, and why Trend Following should play a considerable part in your portfolio. Questions we answer this week include: Should you use Trend Filters to confirm your entry signals? Is the 60/40 portfolio usually less volatile than a typical ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio? Do you recommend adding mean-reversion strategies to your Trend Following systems? How do you define short, medium and long-term?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:11 – Macro recap from Niels
02:41 – Weekly review of performance
14:14 – Top Tweets
55:44 – Mike; Questions 1: Is Trend Following a Dynamic Call Replication strategy?
01:00:39 – Seth; Question 2: Do you use Trend Filters to confirm the entry signal?
01:04:10 – Michael; Question 3: Is the daily volatility of a 60/40 portfolio less than that of the ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio?
01:08:12 – Brian; Listener comment regarding the best way to explain why Trend Following should play a considerable part in all portfolios.
01:14:33 – Dave; Question 4: When using multiple lookback periods, should risk per trade always stay the same?
01:16:02 – Yohan; Question 5: Do you scale into a trade throughout the day, depending on market liquidity, or just enter the full trade upon getting the signal?
01:18:27 – Drew; Question 6: What does your day-to-day look like?
01:20:43 – Yohan; Question 7: Why not combine mean-reversion strategies with your Trend Following strategies?
01:25:49 – Paul; Question 8: Would testing markets that you don’t plan to trade, give added clarity to your backtests?
01:29:22 – Singh; Question 9: How do you define short, medium and long-term timeframes?
01:34:01 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI72: Crisis and how CTAs provide protection during stock market declines
Today, we discuss how CTAs provide Investors with protection during stock market declines, how the term Crisis Alpha may be linked to reduced allocations to CTAs, the psychology behind managers chasing performance, worthwhile allocation percentages to Trend Following, short-term vs long-term CTA strategies, Trend Following as the perfect portfolio, and Diversification as a way to reduce risk. Questions answered this week include: What are some of the pros and cons of CFD trading, and do you have any tips for building a portfolio of CFDs? Should instruments that rarely make money be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:25 – Macro recap from Niels
02:41 – Weekly review of performance
18:39 – Top Tweets
54:51 – Andy (via TTU VoiceMail); Questions 1/2: What are some pros & cons of CFD trading? Do you have any tips for building a CFD portfolio?
01:02:56 – James; Question 3: Should instruments that rarely ever make money, be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data?
01:14:22 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI71: The "quant winter" and the reliability of fundamental analysis
This week, we discuss the reliability of Fundamental Analysis sell rules versus Trend Following sell rules, the so-called ‘Quant winter’ that systematic funds are supposedly in, whether there is a clear definition of Value Investing, the ability of CTAs to offer Investors exposure to less popular markets, the differences between Trend Following and Technical Analysis, and how much of past performance can be considered as a reliable indicator for the future. Questions we cover include: Do you have to be a coder, or hire one, to be a successful Trend Follower? What do you do when you have more signals than available capital? When adding new securities to your Trading Universe, do you resize current positions to accommodate? Is a stock in motion, more likely to stay in motion?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:47 – Macro recap from Niels
04:19 – Weekly review of performance
18:39 – Top Tweets
55:34 – Keith; Questions 1/2: What is the name of Jerry’s bird? What do you do when you have more signals than capital available? When adding new markets to a system, do you resize existing trades to accommodate?
01:03:10 – Neil; Question 3: If a stock is moving or flat, is it likely to continue in the same form?
01:09:11 – Mike; Question 4: What are the differences between Trend Followers & Technical Analysts?
01:13:02 – Andrew; Question 5: Is long-only Trading on Forex recommended?
01:16:46 – George; Question 6: Do you have to be a coder (or hire one), to be a successful Trend Follower?
01:27:37 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI70: How to design and backtest your system ft. Andreas Clenow (Part 2)
Today we continue our interview with Andreas Clenow, where we cover topics such as backtesting & system design, whether we see any growth in the CTA industry, long-term vs short-term Investing, and how to go about raising initial AUM. Questions include: How important are drawdowns when analysing performance? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label for CTAs today? How do you choose parameters for your Trading Models?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:54 – Niels; Question One: How does one go about choosing parameters for their Trading models? Question Two: Do you stick with your model, or do you look to recalibrate it over time?
07:37 – Jerry; Question Two: Have you noticed that longer-term systems have always produced better results than shorter-term, even though we may think otherwise? How important are drawdowns when analysing performance?
13:48 – Moritz; Question One: Would you still go out and start a Trend Following fund today? If so, how would you go out and raise the initial AUM?
16:25 – Niels; Question Two: How should CTAs & Trend Followers present themselves? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label?
22:32 – Niels; Question Three: If you could invite 4 people to dinner, from past or present, who would you choose?
24:00 – Niels; Question Four: Anything you would like to share regarding your latest book?
26:23 – Brian; Question One: Do you think Options strategies distort Trends and the performance of Trend Following strategies?
27:08 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI69: Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence and how to overcome it
In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that can work during all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk. Questions covered this week include: Are CTAs becoming too cautious? Is it really worth diversifying away from developed markets? What causes you to make adjustments to your models?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:09 – Macro recap from Niels
14:06 – Weekly review of performance
19:18 – Top tweets
49:01 – Question 1: Sam; Is it worth diversifying away from developed markets?
55:22 – Question 2: Edmund; Can you recommend any detailed backtesting software with the ability to test variable position sizes?
58:12 – Question 3: Drew; What causes you to make adjustments to your models?
01:06:14 – Question 4: Sebastian; Why is it so hard to be a successful Trend Follower, when it seems we as Humans innately like to follow trends anyway (ie. fashion, social media, tech)?
01:12:39 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:16 – Send your questions in for our upcoming special guest, Andreas Clenow
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI68: The surprising relationship between volatility and risk
In this week’s episode, we discuss the notion of correlation between volatility and risk, why it can be a bad idea to equate a manager’s performance with their skill-level, when a losing trade should still be considered a good trade, how much opportunity is in Low-Volatility Targeting strategies, and we also give our end-of-year reviews. Questions answered this week include: Is Trend Following another form of price prediction? Do you follow the weekly Commitments of Traders report? Can you can you make money in the markets without the need for predictions?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:55 – Macro recap from Niels
03:10 – Weekly review of performance
18:41 – Top tweets
43:29 – Question 1: Woody; Is Trend Following another form of predicting price moves?
01:00:18 – Question 2 William; Do you follow the weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report?
01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update
01:08:52 – End of year recap
01:19:32 – Top tweets (cont.)
01:20:59 – Thank you to our listeners in 2019
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI67: The psychology of predictions
This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness, why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns. Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently? Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator? How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:37 – Macro recap from Niels
03:10 – Weekly review of performance
11:55 – Top tweets (starting with tweet about recent Cliff Asness article from AQR)
50:48 – Announcement of future podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020
53:47 – Question 1: Mike; How would you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long-Volatility strategy?
57:50 – Question 2 Drew; Does the strategy of buying into a Trend Following fund during its drawdowns count as a form of Value Investing, and therefore, hypocritical to Trend Following philosophy?
01:03:37 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI66: Why price is a better guide to higher returns than expert opinion
In this week’s episode, find out why investing in a strategy during a drawdown can be profitable in the long-run, why risk-adjusted performance is more important than tracking against an index, why price is a better guide than expert opinion, if there is a time when you shouldn’t attempt to have uncorrelated securities in your portfolio, and the connections between Trading, statistics, & sports.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:21 – Macro recap from Niels
02:57 – Weekly review of performance
06:12 – Top tweets
50:48 – Announcement of podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020
51:23 – Question 1: Drew; Should you enter a breakout trade based on an intra-day signal or end of day signal?
56:26 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI65: How doing less can ensure bigger and better returns over time
This week, we discuss how doing less can ensure bigger & better results over time, average client holding periods versus the recommended amount of time, why short trades might be the essential part of a winning system, and why uniqueness is now a key requirement for today’s emerging managers. Questions we cover this week include: How far should your backtest go? Can emerging Hedge Fund managers still succeed in today’s environment? Should you adjust past data for volatility?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:21 – Macro recap from Niels
04:11 – Weekly review of performance
07:27 – Top tweets
51:16 – Questions 1: Dane; How far should your backtest go?
54:38 – Question 2: Neal; Do you have a minimum average daily volume when trading stocks?
56:24 – Questions 3/4: James; When using multiple entry signals, do you also use multiple exit signals? When setting up systems & doing testing, should you adjust past data for intended volatility-weighted position sizing? Can emerging managers within the hedge fund space still succeed, among pressure for low fees, the cost of running business, & the popularity of indexing?
01:05:18 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI64: The difference between Warehousing vs Recognising Risk
This week, we discuss the differences between recognising risk and ‘warehousing’ risk, why Fundamental Investors could benefit from implementing Trend Following rules, Diversification as the most important component of risk management, what Traders can learn from Weightlifters, and the delicate balancing act between simple, simplicity, & complexity. Questions we answer this week include: Is Systematic Investing a form of betting? How do you define a Trend? Should you scale into positions?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:11 – Origins of Black Friday
02:43 – Weekly review of performance
11:45 – Top tweets
40:52 – Questions 1/2: Michael; Can the number of trades a system signals, give insight as to how well optimized the system is? Is there a guideline for the number of trades a system should be signalling, for each chosen timeframe (such as Daily/Weekly)?
45:34 – Question 3: Richard; Comment- ‘No deterioration in the overall compound growth-rate of long-term Diversified Systematic Funds, post-2000.’
46:53 – Questions 4/5: Bing; Why don’t we risk more per trade? Is trader psychology the main reason for the importance placed on position sizing?
53:21 – Question 6: Jacob; Can you give examples of strategies that ‘warehouse’ risk?
56:41 – Question 7: Nathan; How do we define the parameters of a Trend?
01:01:37 – Question 8: Chad; Do you scale into a position, or go straight to the chosen max risk of equity per security?
01:05:51 – Questions 9/10: Chris; What should I do with surplus cash once my system reaches its maximum number of positions allowed to be traded simultaneously? Has the average margin requirements for Bitcoin changed?
01:11:00 – Benchmark performance update
01:24:44 – Final thoughts; Is it becoming harder to be a discretionary macro trader?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI63: Are stock pickers overrated?
Is the concept of being a great stock picker overrated? Are Trend Following returns mean-reverting over time? Will Sharpe Ratios of Trend Following strategies permanently stay lower from now on? Is it becoming harder to be a successful discretionary macro trader? Should you use the same stop-loss for every position? We also give our thoughts on the process of adding a new market to your Trading Universe, ATR and how to apply it to your strategies, when a visit from the SEC can be taken as a compliment, why pain and suffering can sometimes be a necessary component of profitable Trend Following, Louis Bacon deciding to close down his funds, and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:57 – Macro recap from Niels
01:55 – Weekly review of performance
08:22 – Top tweets
46:30 – Questions 1/2: Derek; How do you adapt Trend Following models for a constrained universe of markets? How do you educate fundamental Traders about quant investing?
53:31 – Questions 3/4/5: Jonathan; Does having a 5000 sample size backtest apply to each market in each system? Do you use out-of-sample testing? Do you optimize using multiple time-periods?
01:00:37 – Questions 6/7: Indrius; How do you use ATR? Do you take less risk per market as you trade more positions?
01:04:22 – Question 8/9: Brian; How many other Trend Following managers should you invest in? How would you seek out other managers to invest in?
01:12:13 – Question 10: Maurici; Do you use the same stop-loss for every position?
01:19:15 – Question 11: Michael; Why incur personnel costs if all you need is a computer to run your systems?
01:23:37 – Benchmark performance update
01:24:44 – Final thoughts; Is it becoming harder to be a discretionary macro trader?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI62: The benefits of running a multi-strategy portfolio
In this week’s edition, we discuss the possible benefits of running a multi-strategy portfolio, whether or not you need to have a ‘feel’ for the markets before constructing a model, the new all-time highs on the Dow, Trend Following as a viable solution to the end of the 60/40 portfolio, and the longer-term drawbacks of chasing performance from different fund managers. Questions we cover this week include: What really went wrong with LTCM? Should Trend Followers also employ Buy & Hold strategies? Is it ok to ‘leave money on the table’? How would you go about getting into the CTA industry?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:05 – Events review
04:00 – Weekly review of performance
17:10 – Top tweets
51:50 – Question 1: Carl; Is the stop price impacted by the cost of execution?
55:30 – Question 2: Saleh; Can you design a system that works in both trending markets and range bound markets?
01:01:55 – Question 3: Edrico; When adding new markets, do you consider correlations to existing markets in a system?
01:04:10 – Question 4: Glen; How would you break into the CTA industry?
01:13:35 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI61: Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies
In this week’s episode, we discuss the recently published book on Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies, why you shouldn’t be too focused on one position, why it can be difficult to avoid overriding your system based on recent fundamentals, what investors can learn from the world’s best Poker players, and why luck should only be the result of following your edge. Plenty of questions answered this week including: Should you add to winning positions? Do you only trade Breakouts or do you also use indicators? Does less volatility mean more robustness? Do you trade ETFs?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Live event review
02:45 – Weekly review of performance
10:40- Voicemail from Jim
13:20 – Top tweets
36:05 – Question 1: Matt; Do you use indicators beyond price action and new highs/lows?
42:00 – Questions 2/3: James; How do you calculate sample size? Does each lookback window need to be treated independently or should risk be managed in aggregate?
51:40 – Questions 4/5: Brian; Why are more volatile systems considered more robust? Does lower volatility lead to better compound returns?
01:06:40 – Question 6: Gaetano; Do you trade ETFs?
01:10:00 – Benchmark performance update
01:11:00- Ray Dalio discussion
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI60: The dangers of "Home" bias and the benefits of Diversification
This week, we cover some of the dangers of ‘Home Bias’, and the benefits of diversification mixed with good risk management. We also discuss the differences between common Trend Trading and Systematic Trend Following, why investors tend to hold on to losing positions longer than winning positions, why people being hopeful with losses and afraid with profits may be the reason for why Trend Following works, DUNN’s Capital’s recent milestone of 45 years in the business, why Trend Following strategies are more than just the ‘perfect hedge’, ways that Trend Following can be applied to life, and we touch Abbey Capital’s recent article regarding Trend Following performance over the current decade, compared to previous decades. Questions answered this week include: Should long and short entries be symmetrical? Should you limit position sizing in particular markets? What do you define as a small loss?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:05 – Macro recap from Niels
02:20- Weekly review of performance
09:00 – Top tweets
35:05 – Questions 1/2: David; Should a bearish strategy mirror a bullish strategy (i.e. 100 day hi/lo entry for both)? Should you expect bearish strategies to do as well as bullish strategies?
39:45 – Question 3: Walter; Do you have position size limits on individual contracts?
44:15 – Question 4: Neil; What is the definition of a “small loss”?
49:50 – Benchmark performance update
50:55 – Discussion of Abbey Capital white paper
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI59: The dangers of investing in "stories" but why we all do it
On the show today, we cover some of the dangers of investing in something based on its story alone, how market environments can change while the behaviour of participants stays the same, why Trend Followers rely on secret fundamental information being baked into price, the importance of avoiding Outcome Bias, how cockroaches behave in ways that should be the basis of any robust Trading System, and Niels explains how to use the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer. Questions we answer this week include: Do you prefer simple or exponential Moving Averages? Should you use the closing price or the settlement price? Do you measure ATR from the closing price or settlement price? How would you best illustrate trend strength over particular periods of time?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Live event recap
06:00 – Macro recap from Niels
09:55 – Weekly review of returns
12:45 Niels describes his trend indicator
16:40 – Top tweets
34:55 – Questions 1/2: Scott; Do you prefer a specific type of moving average? Do you use settlement or last trade in your models?
38:50 – Question 3: Carl; Do you calculate ATR using the closing price (versus entry price)?
40:30 – Question 4: Nathan; How do you articulate the current volatility environment versus history?
50:00 – Benchmark performance update
51:40 – More live event comments
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI58: The consequences of Bank of America declaring the END of the 60/40 portfolio
This week, we discuss Bank of America’s declaration of the end of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the different attitudes to having ‘insurance’ in the markets, the reasons why too many fund managers are aiming for average returns, and the importance of consistently being present to profit from the biggest price moves. Questions we cover this week include: what can be considered a large enough sample size when performing a backtest? What is the best investing advice you have ever received? Should Trend Following funds screen potential clients? How do you deal with positions that show no price movement for a period of time?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:05 – Macro recap from Niels
04:10 – Weekly review of performance
07:00 - Top tweets
38:00 – Question 1: Jacob; How do you do actual executions (order types, manual, etc.)?
40:50 – Question 2: Jacob; When you get a fill, how do you set your stop?
42:40 – Question 3: Jacob; What happens if a stop is hit on the day of entry?
45:40 - Question 4: Mannik; What sample size is sufficient for a backtest?
49:30 – Questions 5/6: Craig; Should TF investors be screened for patience? What personality traits are best for TF and the required patience?
57:40- Questions 7/8: Dimitri; How do you handle positions that haven’t moved in a long time? Does the potential for a large move increase the longer a price goes sideways?
01:03:20 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI57: Why investors confuse volatility & noise with risk & instability
On this week’s episode, we discuss the tendency for investors to confuse volatility & noise with risk and instability, the benefits of great mentorship, why the best investments are those that have survived calamitous periods, why risk from any single market shouldn’t be able to ruin your portfolio, and Larry Hite’s observation that there is very little magic in Trend Following. Questions we answer this week include: can a 10-year track record can be considered as anything more than noise? Is there a way to achieve exceptionally high returns with minimal risk & volatility? What really is a ‘fat tail’? Can Trend Followers make money in rising interest-rate environments? Can you apply Trend Following to the VIX index?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:15 - Macro recap from Niels
08:15 - Top tweets
45:45 - Question 1: Gaetano; Is it reasonable to TF volatility/VIX futures?
50:00 - Debate: Can TF make money in a rising rate environment?
01:01:20 - Benchmark performance update
01:03:30 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI56: The risk of smooth and steady returns for risk avers investors
This week, we discuss the potential risks of aiming for smooth & steady returns, the pitfalls of having to make predictions, the higher-than-expected appearances of tail events, why it’s dangerous to look at the ‘average performance’ of an industry, and why aiming to trade in a style that suits your personality can actually turn out to be a bad idea. Questions we cover this week include: Have you encountered any CTAs with unusually low-frequency trading strategies? Should the optimization of your strategy come from an ideas-based approach or a data-based approach? How do you feel about the integration of Value Investing into a Trend Following strategy? What does discipline mean to you, and how do you stay disciplined?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:05 - Request for podcast reviews
01:30 - Macro recap from Niels
04:00 - Weekly review of performance
11:10 - Top tweets
43:25 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull
44:20 - Question 1: Chris; What should an individual pay in fees (data, commissions, etc.)?
47:45 - Question 2: Chris; Do you follow front month or highest open interest contracts/continuous contracts or the month you are trading?
54:30 - Question 3: Jacob; Have you encountered extremely low frequency CTAs?
01:00:20 - Question 4: Jacob; What is your opinion on optimizing using ideas (vs data) first?
01:03:50 - Question 5: Jacob; How do you feel about TF meets value investing?
01:08:30 - Question 6: Adrian; What does discipline mean to you and how do you stay disciplined?
01:15:00 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU111: Alignment of Interest ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 2of2
Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I continue our conversation with Alan Sheen, talking about how and why he designed Dalton Street Capital’s investment strategy the way he did, and how it has performed compared to the market average over the past three years. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Alan’s strategies are different from traditional managed futures, his managerial approach that enables employees to innovate, and what an investor should ask a potential manager when doing their due diligence.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Alan developed a hedging strategy based on volatility and liquidity
- The connection between the Australian and US markets
- Why Alan does not trade in US markets in his intra-day strategy
- Why Dalton Street Capital focuses on Australiasian markets
- Where Dalton Street Capital’s return profile comes from
- Why Alan also trades in medium to long-term trend following
- How Dalton Street Capital’s equity portfolio performs against the market average
- Alan’s perspective on model decay
- Why alignment of interest is important in an investment strategy
- How Alan approaches market research
- What questions should investors be asking themselves
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI55: Aligning your investments with the best odds and why the Sharpe needs salt
In this week’s episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, DUNN Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers’, and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy. Questions answered this week include: Why are commodities seen as more risky than equities? Can you use Options in a Trend Following strategy? Should you keep your stop-loss proportionately the same across different time-frames? Are there any markets to be avoided by new managers?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:05 – Reading of various podcast reviews
03:00 – Macro recap from Niels
06:20 – Weekly review of performance
10:15 – Discussion of Mercer Trend Following paper
18:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull
20:35 – Top tweets
36:10 – Questions 1/2/3: Eric; Do you hedge with OTM options? Can you use options to trade trends? Will HFT algos negatively impact TF systems?
41:40 – Question 4: Sam; Should stop distance (ATR multiple) adjust with the trend speed?
47:50 – Question 5: Noobe; Are there any contracts a new manager should avoid?
54:20 – Question 6: Clay; With minimal trading activity, what do TF do all day?
01:00:50 – Question 7: Giangitano; Should you have real stop orders in the market (vs stop alerts)?
01:09:20 – Benchmark performance update
01:10:15 – Closing thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU110: The Opportunity of Volatility ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 1of2
Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I’m speaking with Alan Sheen, Founder and CIO of Dalton Street Capital. Alan has an interesting background in science and engineering, and also spent time in the military, which allowed him to later thrive in rules-based investing. He’s also the first Australian manager to be on the podcast. Listen in to today’s episode to learn about Alan’s journey from the Australian military to starting his own investment firm, why investors should look at volatility not as risk but as an opportunity, and what an investor’s own personal car says about their investment strategies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What Alan’s childhood was like in Australia
- Why Alan studied aeronautical engineering
- How Alan equates gas-turbine engines with robust investing
- How Alan’s experience in the military helps him as an investor
- How Alan was influenced by Darwin’s “The Origin of the Species”
- Quantitative investment’s prevalence in Australia in the early ’90s
- The influence the VIX Index had on Alan’s career
- How Alan’s hedging strategy turned into a managed futures strategy
- Why Alan use an equity portfolio as collateral instead of cash
- How volatility can be opportunity and a friend
- How Berkshire Hathaway has benefited from a volatile market
- The importance of an investment manager to personalize their hedge funds
-----
Links Mentioned:
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI54: Why NOT losing money is more important than missing opportunities
In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex a system gets. Questions answered this week include: How easy is Trend Following to carry out? Are funds today charging too much in fees? Is there a way to accurately predict future price moves? Daniel Crosby mentioned in a recent Top Traders Unplugged interview, that ‘the best investments were the ones that were left alone’, what do we think about that statement? How do we keep our cool around friends & family after a very bad week in the markets? Do clients have a wide & varied attitude toward portfolio volatility?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Weekly recap from Niels
04:10 – Weekly review of performance
09:00 – Top tweets
39:00 – Question 1: Francois; How do you stay cool after a bad week trading?
48:30 – Question 2: Adrian; What is the optimal level of trading activity in a robust system?
52:20 – Question 3: James; Should CTAs offer the same program with different vol targets?
01:02:00 – Question 4: James; Is Jerry trading individual stocks or a basket of stocks?
01:05:45 – Benchmark Performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT27: Why Emotion overrides cognition...dramatically ft. Daniel Crosby – 2of2
On today’s episode, Niels continues his conversation with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Niels and Daniel discuss how emotion affects investment decision-making, the problem with financial media, and what investors can do to correct their bad investment behavior.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The key points of dealing with emotion as an investor
- Why rules are better than goals
- Daniel’s Four “C”s of investing
- The importance of rule-following for investment managers
- What is the role of clarity in investing
- Why an overabundance of data can be detrimental to decision-making
- The role of courageousness in investments
- Why process over outcome is important
- Why volatility is not the same as risk
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Daniel on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI53: Why most successful Hedge Funds employ Systematic strategies
In today’s episode, we discuss if it’s possible to successfully blur the lines between Discretionary & Systematic Trading, why most of the largest Hedge Funds in the world are Systematic, results of the rolling 10-year returns of Trend Following versus the S&P 500, how diversification can prevent long drawdown periods, why forming an opinion on your stock position can negatively affect how you manage the trade, and we also explain some of the differences between Cash Contracts and Continuous Contracts. Questions answered this week include: Should you beware of high win percentages? Are large drawdowns a normal part of Trend Following? What are the largest up or down moves we’ve ever experienced?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:05 – Macro recap from Niels
05:50 – Weekly review of performance
14:55 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
15:20 – Top tweets
45:40 – Question 1: Sam; What are the biggest performance moves (up/down) in your career?
54:40 – Question 2: Sam; Why do some trade long-only (versus long-short)?
57:45- Questions 3/4: Bruno; What do you think about using cash versus futures to calculate trends/create systems? Is there a way to value a commodity?
01:04:40 – Benchmark performance update
01:05:50 – Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
MacroVoices: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen on Algorithmic Trading & Trend Following
The tables have turned! In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen becomes the first featured guest on Erik Townsend’s newest podcast – MacroVoices Spotlight! In this episode, Niels and Erik discuss Trend Following, the history of the Turtle Traders, Benefits of de-correlation and conditional correlation, how CTAs have been performing, and much more.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
RT26: Overcoming behavioural biases ft. Daniel Crosby – 1of2
On today’s episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Dr. Crosby came to investment management through clinical psychology and therefore has a unique perspective on behavioral economics. The discussion ranges from how human behavior is evolutionarily ill-equipped for investment management, the importance of having rules for investing during turbulent times, and what investors can do to modify their behavior for success.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What makes Daniel’s background rare in investment management
- How the eradication of Guinea Worm is relevant to investing behavior
- Why the evolution of human behavior is antithetical to investing
- How being a quantitative investor is beneficial to overcoming bad behavioral economics
- The correlation between activity and success in the markets
- What are the building blocks of behavioral finance
- Why “I don’t know” is the most under-appreciated phrase in investing
- The role of conservatism in behavioral economics
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Daniel on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI52: Working with legendary Paul Tudor Jones ft. Peter Borish
In our special Anniversary Edition of the Systematic Investor Podcast, we invite Peter Borish onto the show to discuss the differences between Discretionary and Systematic Investing, Peter’s journey from the New York Federal Reserve to his role at Quad Group, his experience working with Paul Tudor Jones, his opinion on the CTA industry and its current approach to attracting capital, the benefits of having solid business partners during the best and worst of times, the power of Market Cycles, how perception rather reality can affect a client’s judgement, the effectiveness of Trading coaches, and we also get Peter’s opinions on the current state of the markets. We asked Peter many questions this week, including: Where do you draw the line between normal drawdowns, and feeling compelled to change your models? How do you best explain the benefits of a Rules-Based Trading approach to potential clients? What does Quad Group do, and how difficult is it to find new talent? Can the collapse of Passive Index Funds be the main driver behind the next recession?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:20- Weekly review of performance
05:30 – Voicemail from Jim
07:20 – Peter Borish journey
11:10 – Moritz: What sparked your interest in trading?
12:50 – Jerry: What are your opinions on me/CTAs and the evolution/future of the industry?
18:00 – Niels: Can you comment on Tony Robbins coaching Paul Tudor Jones?
22:20 – Niels: Do systematic traders need coaches?
29:40 – Moritz: How do you balance sticking to a system vs changing/evolving?
41:25 – Niels: How would you pitch TF nowadays to attract more investors?
47:10 – Jerry: How should systematic and discretionary be combined?
51:25 – Jerry: Do famous macro traders use trend but not talk about it?
57:25 – Niels: Do you think famous traders deep down are systematic?
59:10 – Niels: Please explain Quad Group and your role.
01:02:05 – Niels: How many managers do you evaluate and how many make the cut?
01:03:50 – Jerry: What’s your view on the future of hedge funds and CTAs?
01:04:50 – Jerry: What is your current macro view?
01:08:25 – Moritz: Is Quad’s trading systematic or discretionary?
01:09:50 – Niels: How do you give people a specific loss limit at Quad but also want them to follow systems that may perform worse than backtests/history?
01:14:40 – Jerry: How do you help a trader grow his AUM/business
01:17:00 – Niels: What questions do you ask potential managers?
01:18:50 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI51: Improving Diversification through multiple trading approaches
In this week’s show, we discuss using multiple systems to further enhance diversification, the differences between a portfolio meeting expectations versus benchmarking it against an Index, Trend Following in-house versus using an experienced Systematic Investment manager, having the temperament to stay the course with your investments, and the effectiveness of trying to predict the next moves of CTAs. Questions answered this week include: Are interest rates lower than usual at the moment? Does the market ever display any meaningful sentiments from the crowds? Do we use any rules for liquidity? What questions would we consider before allocating to a Systematic Trading strategy? What’s the maximum loss of equity we would be willing to accept due to one return driver, such as the Swiss Franc in 2015, and do we ever have to ‘step-in’ and override our systems?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI50: Why great investing is counter-intuitive to Human Nature
Today we discuss the potential dangers of avoiding simplicity, how good Trading is counter-intuitive to Human Nature, the benefits of doing the same thing over and over, how to earn big profits through aggressive Trend Following strategies, the secrets to building wealth through investing, and how we like to approach correlations in our portfolios. Questions answered this week include: Why are complex strategies more attractive to investors? Is the phrase ‘this time it’s different’ actually true? How important is it to have access to vast amounts of data? How much capital is needed to operate a profitable & diversified Trend Following portfolio? What questions should Investors be asking Fund Managers? Do we use Volume as part of our strategies?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Macro recap from Niels
02:40 – Weekly review of performance
07:45 – Voicemail from Sam
10:15 – Top tweets
44:20 – Question 1: George; With small AUM, should traders/investors outsource TF?
01:04:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
01:05:00 – Questions 2/3: James; What are the most misunderstood parts of TF? What questions should investors be asking?
01:19:50 – Questions 4/5: James; Do you look at volume or just price? If correlations pick up, do you alter your system?
01:22:45 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI49: Morgan Housel's universal laws of investing and the importance of investor behaviour
Today, we discuss the potential dangers of taking time away from the markets, the importance of Investor behaviour over the ability to analyse data, Morgan Housel’s article on the universal Laws of Investing, the differences between Buy-and-Hold, periodically re-balancing your portfolio, versus a more active Trend Following approach, as well as the art of profiting from Tail Events. Questions we address this week include: is Inter-Market Analysis a useful tool or a dangerous approach? Should a Trading System be designed to be comfortable to execute? Would a reduced presence of Trend Followers in the market result in slower, more random price movements? What is the overall effect on markets of large participation from Trend Following strategies, and can the space become too overcrowded?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Macro recap from Niels
03:40 – Weekly review of performance
08:30 – Top tweets
59:30 – Question 1: Craig; If less TF market participants exist, shouldn’t trends be slower and more random on ST horizons?
01:12:45 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
01:13:30 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:00 – Challenge to Sam to record the first message
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI48: The state of the Bond market and do Institutions affect CTA performance
This week, we discuss the current state of the Bond market, how the larger, commercial institutions affect overall CTA Trend Following performance, how to deal with the fluctuations in currencies when performing backtests, and we also give our thoughts on various Trading exit strategies. Questions answered this week include: does the majority of CTAs get out of their equity positions when the S&P500 falls below its 200-day moving average? Should you avoid trading markets that perform badly in backtests? Can a system that is working too perfectly be a bad sign? What are the implications for trading every market in the same way? What is the benchmark Sharpe Ratio for Trend Following strategies? Is there a limit to portfolio diversification?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:45 – Macro recap from Niels
03:25 – Weekly review of performance
12:20 – Top tweets
34:40 – Question 1, Sam: What is the benchmark TF Sharpe ratio?
43:00 – Question 2, Sam: Can there be too much diversification?
53:15 – Question 3, Walter: Please discuss how you deal with foreign currency denominated futures.
58:10 – Question 4, Walter: Since most stocks don’t beat the index or T-bills, shouldn’t shorting be easy (versus the conventional wisdom shorting is hard)?
01:03:00 – Questions 5 & 6, Jeff: What are the risks of using larger (vs smaller) ATR multiples for exits? What kind of exits does DUNN use?
01:08:40 – Benchmark performance update
01:09:40 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI47: Don't fall in Love with your positions
This week, we discuss the importance of avoiding any emotional attachments to your positions, how correlated markets can affect your portfolio, how to decide which trades to execute when your signals outweigh the amount of equity available to trade, and we also give our thoughts on Margin-to-Equity related to Position Sizing. Questions answered this week include: does uncertainty in the markets have any negative effects on Trend Following strategies? Can the S&P 500 ever be a good comparison when gauging Trend Following performance? Are there any signals that can reliably measure trend strength? When Trend Following strategies aren’t working, should you apply any other strategies? Does Jerry trade Index Futures or single stocks?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Request for podcast reviews
02:45 – Macro recap from Niels
06:45 – Weekly review of performance
08:50 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
09:50 – Top tweets
44:30 – Question 1: Sandeep; Please discuss market correlations.
49:40 – Questions 2/3: James; When adding new markets to a system, what are you looking for? How do you calculate trend strength?
01:00:30 – Question 4: Dante; What strategy should one use in high volatility periods?
01:04:30 – Question 5: Ali; How do you pick the markets in your system?
01:09:20 – Question 6: Ali; Will Jerry please discuss how he trades single stocks
01:13:00 – Question 7: Ali; Can you recommend a broker?
01:14:15 – Question 8: Ali; Please discuss margin to equity and position sizing
01:18:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO26: Behavioral Finance, Crisis Alpha & the Adaptive Market Hypothesis
When it comes to Behavioural Finance, a few people stand out in terms of their contribution to helping us all understand why and how it works. The intersection between Human Behaviour and Quantitative Investing can be difficult to understand for even the most sophisticated investors. Today, I want to share some really important insights from one of my favorite professors, who is also a practitioner of this discipline, namely Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of MITs laboratory of Financial Engineering. Many people know Andrew as the father of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and our conversation was wide ranging, entertaining, and deeply insightful. So enjoy these truly unique take aways from Professor Andrew Lo.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI46: Are commodities more risky to trade than equities?
This week, we discuss whether commodities are more risky to trade than equities, if a stocks-only Trend Following strategy can be profitable in the long run, if a deep drawdown is worse than a long drawdown, and the importance of over-estimating any possible drawdowns implied by a backtest. Questions answered include: should all Trend Following funds be required to provide Crisis Alpha? Is there ever a good time to override your system and trade outside of the rules? Should you always execute trades from your signals immediately, or wait for an extra confirmation sometimes? Is there an edge to be gained from seeking the perfect entry into a long-term trade? How many positions should you have open at any one time? What can be considered a good amount of leverage?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Request for podcast reviews from listeners
02:15 – Intro/Macro recap from Niels
07:50 – Weekly review of performance
12:50 – Top tweets
58:50 – Questions 1/2/3: James; Why don’t you like the original Turtle system? What systems do you prefer? Regarding entries/exits, do you prefer executing intraday, on close, etc.?
01:06:20 – Question 4: James; What is the average leverage in your portfolio and how many positions do you hold at any one time?
01:12:30 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:00 – Discussion of Salem Abraham decision to revamp his business away from a classic CTA Trend Following shop
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO25: Un-Learning, Keeping an Open Mind & The Legacy of AHL
It has been said that: ‘The biggest room of all, is the room for improvement’, and one thing that is clear to see in the amazing careers of today’s guests, is the continued hunger for learning in the quest for an improved investment process. This has led to an unprecedented success for this trio. Today, I share the last key insights from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this post, we don’t just discuss the importance of learning… but also how you must un-learn certain things in order to move forward. Lastly, we discuss what the three of them wish the legacy of AHL will be. So, sit back and relax and enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI45: Ray Dailo's paradigm shift and Gold as a safe-haven
In this week’s episode, we discuss Ray Dalio’s recent article on Paradigm Shifts and his comments on the safety of Gold. We also touch on the perils of having too many filters that keep you from entering a trade, why you should avoid ‘sure thing’ trade recommendations from others, the importance of having a plan before entering a trade, the benefits of incorporating what you’ve learnt from others about Trading into your own strategies, and the reasons for buying at the 52-week high as opposed to the 52-week low. Questions this week include: is it better to have multiple exit strategies on a trade or just one single criteria? Should long positions have the same Trading rules as short positions? Is there such a thing as having a ‘healthy fear’ in the markets?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:30 – Macro recap from Niels
03:30 – Weekly review of performance
06:30 – Discussion of Ray Dalio article
10:00 – Jerry’s highlights for the week
12:15 – Discussion of paper on TF speeds
27:00 – Top tweets
58:30 – Questions 1/2: Harsh; Can you have different exits for longs and shorts? Can stop distance adjust dynamically based on profit?
01:06:00 – Question 3: Sebastian; Can you trade without pain/fear if you deeply believe in your approach?
01:14:15 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO24: The Importance of Asset Allocation & Patience
In 1987, 3 scientists, 1 from Cambridge and 2 from Oxford, were brought together by their shared passion for the markets and for computers. Little did they know, that over the next 3 decades, this passion would lead them to build 3 world-leading multi-billion dollar Systematic Investment businesses. Today, I would like to share another Golden Nugget with you, from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this post, we focus on how markets and the importance of Asset Allocation have evolved since the beginning; a crucial insight into what has made them so successful. So enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI44: Should you buy the new 98-year Austrian Bond? and Volatility vs Risk targeting
On this week’s episode, we discuss the resurgence of ‘boutique’ funds, the new Austrian bond which promises a yield of 1.2% over 98 years, why having new markets to Trade can be good thing, and the differences between Volatility Targeting, versus adjusting overall risk exposure according to market conditions. Questions answered this week include, should you really trade a strategy that suits you? What is the ideal sample size when backtesting data, and should you pay attention to valuation when entering a Trending market?
(**Due to a technical issue with Jerry’s audio this week, his sound quality is not as good as usual. Our apologies for this.)
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO23: Reminiscences of 3 Trend Followers...the AHL Trilogy
One of the great Investment books of all time is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, which is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous Financial Speculator of all time: Jesse Livermore. There is no doubt that even today, 100 years later, we can all learn from of the experiences of successful Investors.
In this Best of Top Traders Unplugged, which I have appropriately titled Reminiscences of 3 Trend Followers, Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL, finally shed light on one of the best kept secrets of modern finance. I sat down with them in Abbey Road Studios in London, on the 30-year anniversary of when they founded AHL. The conversation turned out to be witty, inspiring, and far more entertaining than it had any right to be. So, enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI43: Cliff Asness on the difficulty on sticking to a strategy through volatile periods
In this episode, we discuss the recent article from AQR Capital’s Cliff Asness on the difficulty of sticking to a strategy through volatile periods, why we may never know if a particular system is broken, the differences between different Trading timeframes, and we give an update on the upcoming live event in New York in October. We also answer some questions such as: Is there a ‘Holy Grail’ of Stop Losses? What is a good way to backtest a Trading system? Is there a point where too much Diversification begins to negatively affect the return profile in a portfolio? What are the possible causes that would move a person to Trade a longer timeframe?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro/Macro recap from Niels
02:45 – Weekly review of performance
11:30 – Top tweets
20:30 – Question 1: James; Where can one find more information on stop losses/risk mgmt?
28:00 – Question 2: Brian; What software do you recommend for backtesting?
31:50 – Question 3: Paul; Discussion of the multiple facets of diversification
38:00 – Question 4: James; Can there be too much diversification?
51:15 – Question 5: Sam; What made Jerry decide to shift to longer-term trading?
55:20 – Benchmark performance update
56:30 – Live event update
Other resources discussed:
AQR Paper Reference: Quant Cassandra
Article Reference: Wes Gray- Trend Following A Decade of Underperformance & The Epitome of No Pain, No Gain
Basso Research: How This Random Entry Method Beat The Market
Book 1: Van Tharp’s Definitive Guide to Position Sizing Strategies
Book 2: Van Tharp’s Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI42: Are Stanley Druckenmiller and David Harding right about Trend Following? ft. Salem Abraham
Today we’re joined on the show by Salem Abraham, a legendary Trend Follower, and President of Abraham Trading Company based in Canadian, Texas. We discuss if Bitcoin has any real value, how Jerry Parker influenced Salem early in his career (and how he was able to help Jerry), why we don’t need to understand the reasons for a price going up, how looking at your returns too often can affect your performance, if Stanley Druckenmiller and David Harding are right about the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, and how being exposed to a variety of markets can reduce risk in a portfolio. Questions answered include: what is Salem’s preferred timeframe to trade in? Why is there such an increase in Return Dispersion among Trend Following funds today, compared to a while ago? What are Salem’s thoughts on High-Frequency Trading, Electronic Trading, and Arbitrage? Will Trend Following ever become too over-crowded?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:45 – Weekly review of Performance including Salem’s thoughts
15:35 – Salem describes his background and discussion ensues
47:00 – Top tweets
01:09:30 – Question: What do you think about the markets being made up of more computers (vs humans)?
01:30:15 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI41: Bitcoin's recent rally and benefits of trading single stocks
On today’s episode, we give our thoughts on the recent Bitcoin rally, the possible benefits of trading single stocks rather than indices, how spending less time looking at the markets can benefit your Trading, and we also offer some other suggestions for better Trading Discipline. Questions answered this week include: what are the main characteristics of a successful Trader? How often should you change your parameter combinations? How short-term did The Turtles trade, and how does that compare to Jerry’s Trading style today? What is the definition of long-term Trading, and should CTAs be more longer-term in their strategies?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI40: Is past performance actually indicative of future returns? ft. Corey Hoffstein
This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast. We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns. Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk’, why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns. We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED
05:35 – Weekly review of performance
08:50 - Corey's journey
22:00 – Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When
35:10 – Question: How do you know when your model is broken?
42:15 – Question: Do you think TF will continue to work?
52:00 – Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it!
56:50 – Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed?
01:01:20 – Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio?
01:06:45 – Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc.
01:17:40 – Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else?
01:21:20 – Question: Why is it easier to predict markets & performance 10 years out…unlike most other things in life?
01:27:00 – Question: Do you think past performance is a guide?
01:29:15 – Question from Christian: Do you think more information in models adds value?
01:33:00 – Question from another Moritz: How do you invest personally?
01:36:50 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO22: You don’t need to be a Genius if you can Stick to a Plan
In the previous Best of Top Traders Unplugged, we went back in time to re-visit some of the key lessons that many investors learned during the Financial Crisis of 2008. It was my way of reminding myself, and you, of something that we as investors must never forget. Today, Robert Carver goes much deeper into the human psychology that makes us ill-equipped to deal with our emotions in a rational way when it comes to making good investment decisions, and also, how you can overcome this behaviour and make your own plan for financial success. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI39: How to trade the VIX and do Trend Followers have an edge?
Can the VIX index be traded as part of a successful Trend Following strategy? Do CTAs have the edge over traditional Hedge Funds by being invested in the less popular markets? Should some parameters be adjusted according to the market being traded, and can you expect returns from Long Positions & Short Positions to be equal? We also give our thoughts on MorningStar’s recent ‘Bubble Index’ experiment, as well as Real Vision’s recent interview on the subject of ‘selling volatility’.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:55 – Weekly review of performance
11:50 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
13:00 – Top tweets
45:00 – Discussion of Goldman Sachs paper on TF
52:20 – Discussion of Morningstar “bubble” portfolio article
56:10 – Discussion of Real Vision video on volatility
57:00 – Discussion of FT article on South Korea
01:00:00 – Question 1: Ryan; Can the VIX be traded as part of a TF strategy?
01:08:00 – Benchmark performance update
01:09:00 – Next week’s special guest is Corey Hoffstein
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO21: Trading for a Living
The financial crisis back in 2008 is slowly fading from the memories of investors. But for those of us who lived and traded through it, many important lessons were learned, and usually the hard way. For many investors, it was a period that can be best described as an Emotional Roller-Coaster, where billions of dollars were lost by investment decisions which were primarily driven by emotions. In my hope to make sure that these lessons are not forgotten and wasted, I wanted to share a story that I think many of us can relate to. So I looked through my list of guests to pull a few Golden Nuggets from on this topic, and I thought that Robert Carver, who spent many years at AHL before deciding to share his knowledge about Systematic Trading through his books and blog, would be ideal for this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI38: Process over outcome and how sports relates to trading
This week, we discuss the importance of process over outcome, how sports can be related to Trading, and whether mistakes are to be avoided completely or something we should look forward to learning from. Questions answered this week include: is Ray Dalio’s suggestion of 15 uncorrelated return streams the ultimate way to diversify your portfolio? Are some markets more tradable for Trend Followers than others? Is market ‘noise’ making it harder for Trend Followers, or is the volatility a good thing? How do you deal with strategic retirement decisions as a Trend Follower? Is it in a Hedge Fund’s best interests to stay relatively small and private?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:30 – Weekly review of performance
10:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
11:30 – Top tweets
40:30 – Question 1: Jack; When/how do you decide to change a losing TF system?
49:20 – Question 2: Werner; How do you decide not to add a specific market to a TF system?
57:15 – Question 3: Sam; Should investors decrease risk as they near retirement?, and if so…How?
01:24:30 – Discussion of noise vs volatility paper by Michele Cocchiglia & Stefan Martinek of Kelonia Capital Management: Deconstructing Noise – A closer look at the notion of noise, its definition and potential impact in today’s market environment.
01:29:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO20: How to start & grow a CTA business
I get a lot of questions about ideas to help build the best Trading Model, and I understand why many aspiring managers feel that this is critical to their future success. There is though, a lot of truth in the saying: “Most people overvalue ideas and underestimate execution”.
What I mean by that is, when you want to start and build a business such as a Hedge Fund or CTA, I’m not so sure that the real challenge lies within the design of your investment approach. Nowadays, I think that raising the initial funds from Seed or Early investors have actually become the biggest obstacle for new managers. This is something I have a long experience with, and this is why I wanted to focus on it, in today’s post. So I thought that Kim Bang, who spent many years at a big firm like Bloomberg before starting his own CTA firm, is the perfect person to talk about this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kim.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI37: Is "Buy and Hold" the perfect investment strategy? and should you "Equal Weight"?
Is ‘Buy & Hold’ the S&P500 index the perfect investment strategy? Should you apply Equal-Weighting across all of your Trading positions? Are long-term strategies the only way to avoid market noise? Also, we give our thoughts on why you should avoid ‘Fat-Tail Distributions’, Volatility versus Risk, how Trend Following strategies tend to ‘melt-up’ rather than crash down, and our upcoming Systematic Investor Series Live Event.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:55 – Weekly review of performance
06:30 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; 12 people
09:30 – Top tweets
52:20 – Question 1: Sam- Please discuss equal weighting positions.
01:00:30 – Benchmark performance update
01:01:50 – Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO19: The Evolution and Future of Trend Following
Regardless of the investment strategy that you apply to the markets, your strategy or approach needs to evolve over time. The way we did Trend Following back in the 1970s, 1980s & 1990s is not exactly the way we do it today, and I think this can be said about most, if not all strategies. Now with some strategies, the model decay is so rapid, that if you don’t adapt quickly you can lose your edge. I think short-term strategies are good examples of this. Trend Following, being a longer-term strategy is, in my opinion, a lot slower when it comes to Model Decay… so you need to have been around for a really long time in order to have witnessed this evolution.
So when I looked through my list of guests to pull a few golden nuggets from on this theme, I thought that Marty Lueck, the co-founder of AHL and Aspect Capital would be the perfect person for this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Marty.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI36: Can you measure the quality of your strategy on your stress-level?
In today’s episode, we discuss whether or not Trend Following is more effective with Volatility Targeting, how cautious you should be of outlier events, how to use stress-levels as an indicator of how good your trading strategy is, and we give our thoughts on the concept of ‘Risk of Ruin’, in relation to the plight of Long-Term Capital management in the late 1990s. Questions this week include: Should you trade in a style that suits your personality? Can 10 years of financial data still be classified as ‘noise’? Should the fundamental causes of market movements affect how you trade? Should you reduce your position in a trade if it goes in your direction far quicker than expected? We also touch on Howard Mark’s comments regarding the skill of catching a ‘falling knife’.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI35: The journey from managing personal money to external clients
Today, we discuss how to go from managing personal money to third-party money, in this current regulatory environment. We clear up some confusion surrounding the VIX market, touch on stocks vs commodities & how they affect on Trend Following strategies differently, as well as how to avoid a single driver from overly correlating your portfolio. We also answer the questions: how do you define long-term versus short-term? Did Richard Dennis’s Turtles ever add to winning positions? Are CTAs underrepresented at investing conferences, and are investors losing out by only choosing the most common names?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI34: Can Central Banks and policies prevent trends in the future?
In today’s episode, we discuss how much central banks or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future. We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if technology prevents Commodities from having bull runs like Equities have had in the last decade, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Weekly review of performance
08:45 – Top tweets
37:30 – Question 1: Todd; What are your thoughts on adjusting stops based on price changes/volatility?
45:50 – Question 2: Paul; Have you considered the strength of a trend in your models?
53:05 – Question 3: Brian; How do you scale position sizes up and down based on performance?
01:02:15 – Questions 4/5/6: Sanjay; Aside from central bank (CB) action are there other reasons for the lack of trends in the last decade? If CB action is to blame and continues, will a lack of trends persist? What are indicators to watch to measure overall market trendiness?
01:22:45 – Question 7: George; What are your thoughts on data (back adjusting, roll methods, cleaning, etc.)?
01:30:15 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT25: Alpha decay in Short-Term strategies ft. John Fidler, Jonathan Miles & Christopher Vogt – 2of2
On today’s episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri continues his conversation with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathan Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. Listen in as our guests talk about management fees and how they have changed over the past decade, the importance of constantly checking your assumptions, and what wisdom they would give to young up and coming investors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why John and Jonathan don’t spend much time looking at short-term CTAs
- How fee compression has changed management fees over the last decade
- When our guests choose discretionary over systematic managers
- The role of alternatives in a portfolio, and why Christopher doesn’t call them alternatives
- Why Christopher urges people interested in the investment space to be cynical
- Why in a world of complex models, John sees simplicity as a good thing
- The most important decisions in Jonathan’s work, and why they aren’t necessarily financial decisions
- Why many people’s view of model risk can hurt them and their investments
- Why macro strategies will always remain strong
-----
Links Mentioned:
- The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia Investing
- Hedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional Portfolios
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Connect with our guests:
Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust
Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Mgt of U.S. Bank
Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO18: How to test a model over decades of Data
I often see the press write that too much money is chasing the same trends, and this being the reason that Trend Following strategies have been performing a little under par in the last few years. So who better to ask if this really is true, than my friend Kathryn Kaminski, who of course co-wrote the bible on Trend Following with Alex Greyserman… as well as a book with me, that you can find on my website. We also discussed how they conducted their research for their book, where they went back a very long time to test if Trend Following models really do work over centuries of data… so I think you will find this part of particular interest. I hope you enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI33: The positive effect of embracing volatility ft. Wayne Himelsein
This week, we invite special guest Wayne Himelsein onto the show from Logica Capital Advisers, in Los Angeles. Wayne explains his journey into starting a Hedge Fund, some of the lessons he has learned over the years, and some of the rules that keep him from repeating past mistakes. He describes why he loves Trend Following, why embracing ‘uncertainty’ can have a positive effect on Trading, and how he typically constructs a portfolio. We also discuss why Wayne prefers long trades over short trades, how he uses Options, if stop-losses are a good idea, and if volatility has an effect on the size of his positions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT24: The Value of Liquidity ft. John Fidler, Christopher Vogt & Jonathan Miles – 1of2
On today’s episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri speaks with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathon Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. With these experts on managed futures, we will discuss how managed futures is being incorporated into institutional portfolios, illiquid versus liquid investments, and what role alternative investments play in today’s investment landscape.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What managed future strategies John sees the more successful managers gravitating towards
- Why diversification isn’t always the best idea, and what alternative strategies Jonathan recommends
- The advantages and disadvantages of having illiquid versus liquid investments
- The heuristic crutch of private equity
- Why Christopher is wary to always choose emerging managers over more established ones
- The importance of a strong operational due diligence in managing portfolios
- How trend following will need to evolve amid machine learning and changing markets
- How Jonathan’s risk premia strategies transformed how his firm looked at managed futures
-----
Links Mentioned:
- The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia Investing
- Hedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional Portfolios
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust
Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Mgt of U.S. Bank
Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI32: How accurately can we predict future returns? and can trading with systems keep you happy?
Are CTAs giving the wrong message by charging low performance fees? Is there a perfect amount of AUM to aim for? Can Systematic Trading keep you happy? How accurately can we predict future returns? We discuss whether Trend Following is easy enough to do at home, or if you should do it through a reputable fund instead. What sort of things can be found in a ‘Research Graveyard’? Should you use Stop Losses, and if so, how and where should you place them? We answer the question of what makes a strategy robust, as well as how to avoid over-complicating a Trading System.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:00 – Weekly review of performance
05:55 – Top tweets
50:00 – Announcement: Next week’s guest Wayne Himelsein
50:50 – Question 1: George; What are the operational realities of running a TF business?
56:55 – Question 2+: Craig; Please discuss the research that didn’t become part of the system.
01:02:20 – Question 3+: Carl; Series of questions about stop loss mechanics (initial, ATR, trailing, etc.)
01:10:15 – Question 4+: Michael; What are your thoughts on variable count in robust systems? Do you tailor models to specific markets/sectors?
01:24:40 – Question 5: Uncle Mike; What works best for stops?
01:28:25 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO17: Track records vs Simulations... what’s Best?
For those of us who have been on the manager side for a while, you’ll know that investors love to analyse decades of performance data before deciding which manager they are going to invest with, and that makes a lot of sense. But we also come across investors who subsequently redeem based on just a year or two after they invested, which is usually just down to bad luck and unfortunate timing. This does not seem logical, but it does relate to the short conversation I want to share with you today, where I discuss the role and importance of track-records & back-tests with Scot Billington. We also ended up discussing an interesting twist to their research, which led them to abandon taking any Short Trades in their model. So enjoy these unique insights from Scot.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI31: Should you be using a Stop-Loss? or Target a certain level of Volatility?
Does Systematic Trading completely eliminate all emotions from the process? Is it wise to use Stop-Losses? Should CTAs target low-volatility & average returns, or high returns with higher possible volatility? Can a finely-crafted Trading System be considered in the same way as a fine piece of art? Are all Trend Following systems essentially the same? We also discuss if intricate rules are better than ‘broader brush-strokes’, if it really is ‘difficult times’ for Trend Following or simply Recency Bias, as well as touching on the value of managing and owning your emotions throughout a trade. Also, we discuss how to deal with an upcoming Futures contract rollover, and answer the question: just how important is the ‘Execution Desk’ at a Trading Firm?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Weekly review of performance
05:30 – Top tweets
01:12:00 – Questions 1&2: John; If a trade signal comes just before a roll date, do you move the roll forward to avoid trading twice? Do you ever try to “game” a roll to make a profit?
01:17:30 – Question 3: Michael; When the system designer and the executive are not the same person, how does the executive have confidence in the system/work of the system designer?
01:23:30 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO16: Crisis Alpha explained
Kathryn Kaminski is one of my favorite people to discuss Trend Following with, because she has a great way of simplifying and explaining some of the key concepts of the strategy. Today, we talk about the phrase Crisis Alpha, and how it may be better to think about these strategies as Divergent strategies, because in reality we don’t need a crisis in order for Trend Following to do well. Years like 2014 and 2017 are great examples of this. Q1 of 2019 is perhaps a more recent example too. We also touch on Convergent strategies, which, in my mind, are ‘short volatility’ strategies- even if not all investors realize this. I think 2018 gave us a taste of what is to come when volatility starts to re-emerge in the markets. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI30: Should you adjust your position size based on recent volatility?
Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You will hear our thoughts on the idea of risking 1% per trade and how diversification affects this, the pros and cons of a crowded Trend Following market, and we touch on the topic of whether or not a trade can be held for too long.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:45 – Review of last week’s episode with Jesse Felder
06:45 – Weekly review of performance
11:00 – Top tweets
32:20 – Question 1: John; Are you always fully invested?
41:00 – Question 2: John; Across all trades, how much total risk is there in a TF system?
46:30 – Questions 3/4/5/6: Woody; What are the pros and cons of using managed futures in ETFs vs mutual funds vs other vehicles? Will liquid alts suffer from a big bank crisis? Do you need leverage and concentrated positions to get the benefits of managed futures? Is there a disadvantage of using ‘blue chip’ managed futures mutual funds?
01:07:30 – Question 7: Brian; Why do investors use Sharpe ratios?
01:15:50 – Question 8: Sam; What are your thoughts on price gaps?
01:19:30 – Questions 9/10: Andrew; Do you use Trend Following signals to manage your cash positions? How does DUNN use swaps in relation to fees?
01:26:50 – Question 11: Sam; Is there a time period that is too long-term for a trade?
01:31:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO15: Why Trend Following is Not a Black Box
Often, a Trend following strategy is described as being a ‘Black Box’, as if something bad was going on. So it was refreshing to hear Scott Foster talk about Trend Following as being in fact, a ‘White Box’, or a ‘Transparent Box’, in comparison to other algorithmic strategies, which are often embraced by investors to a much larger degree… so I’m delighted to share this blog post with you, from a conversation I had with Scott Foster, where he also touched on the essential question: Why are there trends, and why ought there be trends in the future?
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI29: Can Value Investing be applied to Gold? and Trend Following as a forecasting tool ft. Jesse Felder
In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast. Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold. We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him? Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Weekly review of performance
05:20 – Jesse reviews his background/influences
08:00 – Jesse describes his process
12:45 – Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market?
19:30 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing
25:40 – Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing
28:00 – Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing
30:10 – Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing
34:40 – Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes
36:50 – Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tails
Book reference: The Tao of Capital by Spitznagel
40:10 – Jerry asks Jesse’s thoughts on TF as a tool benefitting diversification
42:00 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on the market not broadly recognizing the evidence supporting Trend Following
47:20 – Jerry/Jesse/Niels discuss forecasting and TF
50:00 – Question from George: Why is knowing what’s happening fundamentally better than just responding to price (i.e. trend following)?
56:20 – Niels asks Jesse’s view on Tesla
01:00:20 – Moritz asks how Jesse spends a typical day
01:01:30 – Niels asks what Jesse is reading now
01:03:20 – Moritz asks about Jesse’s interests/hobbies
01:04:40 – Niels asks about following Buffett/Munger and shifts in markets today
01:08:45 – Niels asks if Jesse applies analog analysis to markets
01:11:50 – Niels asks Jesse’s recommendations on things to read/listen to to learn about investing
01:14:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT23: Populism and Market Risks ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 2of2
Today guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Chris Cole, the Founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. Our guests today go over the changing markets and why despite trend following’s recent underperformance, their clients still look to it as protection for their portfolio. They will also continue their discussion on the intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing, as well as the relationship between corporate debt and GDP and its long term trends.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the recent quantitative easing could be moving into quantitative tightening, and what that means for investors
- The intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing
- How opportunities in the markets are changing managers behavior
- Why Matthew is happy with the current market environment
- Which asset classes currently offer a cheap volatility
- What the recent huge spikes in VIX meant for long vol and short vol traders
- Who in the investing space is looking for the protection of hedging for their portfolio
- Why trend following is still successful despite it’s recent difficulties in the market
- The meaning of the recent change of Growth outperforming Value
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital Management
Learn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHL
Learn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI28: Investing based on the "Evidence" and what are the Trend Commandments?
On today’s show, we give our thoughts on ‘Evidence-Based Investing’, David Harding’s latest comments on Trend Following, how much is too much ‘Open Risk’, as well as answering: what are some of the ‘Trend Commandments’? Also, we discuss whether it’s safe or not to buy after a big upside price break or sell after a big gap down, whether Volatility should be ‘targeted’ in your portfolio, and if a system can be designed handle ‘parabolic moves’ better.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:00 – Weekly review of performance
06:30 – Top tweets
34:40 – Question 1: Michael; Have any of you backtested 2009 trades onward with one size fits all position sizing?
47:15 – Question 2: Dave; What represents too much open risk as a percentage of AUM?
56:55 – Question 3: Brian; How does a Trend Following system trade a parabolic market?
01:06:15 – Question 4: George; What are the commandments of Trend Following you reference in earlier episodes?
01:10:00 – Question 5: George; Could Moritz discuss why he dislikes a simple Trend Following system on just the S&P 500 when Meb Faber’s research shows it is effective.
01:12:40 – Question 6: George; Is Jerry’s infrequent overall risk reduction built into his system?
01:15:10 – Question 7: George; Most Trend Followers use stops, why doesn’t DUNN?
01:19:10 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT22: Volatility Master Class ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 1of2
On today’s episode guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. With these three world class volatility experts on the show, we’ll be going deep into the current state of volatility, the ramifications of United States quantitative easing, as well as the economic effects on the market of various social movements around the world.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How our guests got interested in the financial industry and data analytics
- The state of the market now and where it is headed in the future
- Why Dan sees the Quantitative Easing and its effect on market changes hurting long-term volatility
- The hidden risks to the markets from the rise of populism
- Dan’s “top five longball macro themes” and what we can learn from them
- Where Matthew sees opportunities in volatility today
- What it has been like as a long-vol trader for the last ten years, when you are up against the World’s Central Banks
- Why you don’t have to put your “end-of-the-world” hat on…just yet
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital Management
Learn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHL
Learn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI27: Volatility vs Risk...What's the difference? and are CTAs useless?
Discussion points this week include, Volatility vs Risk, the differences between Trading and Investing, Zero Hedge’s comment about CTAs & Trend Followers being useless, and the NY Times article on high market skepticism while prices continue to go up. Also, should CTAs be used as a tool just for ‘Crisis Alpha’, or something more? Can Trend Following be used as a timing tool? What is the best sample size and look-back period when testing a system?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:35 – Weekly review of performance
05:30 – Top tweets
24:30 – TF needs a better slogan than “crisis alpha” – listeners are welcome to write in.
39:20 – Question 1: Antonio; How should TF work with traditional 60/40 stock/bond investing (and more on the podcast)?
56:20 – Question 2: Kevin; When backtesting do you have a preferred definition of what was and was not a trend or do you apply discretion?
01:03:50 – Announcement: Guest Jesse Felder coming on the show in a few weeks
01:04:35 – Benchmark Performance update
Paper Reference 1 – https://www.ahl.com/strategic-rebalancing
Paper Reference 2 – https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Century-of-Evidence-on-Trend-Following-Investing
Paper Reference 3 – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3050736
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI26: Is it more profitable to invest longer-term? and Druckenmiller on being greedy
Is it more profitable to be longer-term? When is Trend Following the wrong strategy to use? Should you ‘ease’ into a trade, or go all in, and how should you adjust position size? Other talking points include where to trade Single Stock Futures, how to include Options into a Trend Following strategy, as well as recent quotes from Stanley Druckenmiller about being greedy in the markets, and the quotes from Howard Marks on the psychology of the markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:35 – Weekly review of performance
06:15 – Top tweets
29:35 – Question 1: Antonio; How do you determine if your Trend Following model is broken?
45:00 – Question 2: Seth; How does Jerry diversify his single stock portfolio?
47:20 – Question 3: Dave; Could you discuss specific details of your systems?
48:15 – Question 4/5/6: Carlos; How does Jerry trade single stock futures given liquidity? What is your opinion on using alternative data for position sizing/signal generation? What is your opinion on adjusting position sizes using momentum/pyramiding/etc.?
58:20 – Question 7: Walter; What exchange does Jerry use to trade single stock futures/where is the liquidity?
01:03:30 – Question 8: Brian; Do you use options strategies? If so would you discuss your strategies?
01:09:50 – Question 9: Glen; Please discuss your execution process once a system provides a signal.
01:15:00 – Question 10/11: Keith; If establishing a new system, do you put on all positions as of a specific date or sit in cash waiting for new entry signals? How do you adjust positions when new money comes in?
01:19:50 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO14: How ”slow” trading can be Profitable
Would you believe somebody if they told you they had been very successful in the investment world, by looking at the just markets once a week? Everything, and everyone, seems to be getting increasingly more short-term in their nature, so it seems counter-intuitive that you can run an actively managed trading strategy by only checking for new signals once a week. Nevertheless, this is exactly what Scot Billington and his partners have done.
When I spoke to Scot a while back, he shared some great stories and real-life experiences, that had led him and his partners to this realization, and ultimately, their unique way of implementing a Trend Following approach. I’m excited to share some of these key takeaways with you today.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI25: Where to start your Trend Following jouney?
Discussion points this week include: Where to start if you want to become a Trend Following Trader, whether or not to trade markets differently, Bloomberg’s article on the supposed Failing of Trend Following, how strategies can cope and adapt during drawdowns, how to know when you are truly diversified or not, and a lot more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:20 – Weekly review of performance
07:00 – Top tweets
32:30 – Question 1: Karl; Where would you start if you wanted to become a Trend Follower?
36:30 – Question 2/3: Paul; Considering return volatility and investor tolerance, how do you help investors determine their optimal allocation to Trend Following? Have your personal volatility preferences changed over time?
45:45 – Question 4: Antonio; If historical drawdowns have no bearing on the future (as the podcast has said), how do you know your system won’t blow up?
50:10 – Question 5: Antonio; How do you calculate future expected returns with a TF system?
55:20 – Question 6: Antonio; If you can’t estimate future returns, why bet TF will keep working in the future?
59:30 – Question 7: Antonio; Should recent performance of TF systems influence future return expectations?
01:03:10 – Question 8: Brian; How does a CTA choose a company to sell their products?
01:05:00 – Question 9/10: Samuel; Based on correlation, what level of diversification is enough? What will cause Jerry to adjust his risk?
01:09:00 – Question 11: Samuel; How often should positions be adjusted based on account equity?
01:15:15 – Question 12: Brian; Why do investors hold CTA returns to a higher standard (versus other hedge funds)?
01:18:50 – Question 13: Seth; What are the unique “sectors” that drive diversification in a TF system?
01:22:40 – Discussion of Bloomberg article on TF failing – suggested by Christian
01:35:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT21: What's next for Hedge Funds? ft. Jake Barton, Trent Webster & Steven Wilson – 2of2
Today Niels continues his conversation with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. Listen in to learn when our guests use investment theory versus data, new standards for management fees, and what our guests look for in maintaining a reliable team for their investors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- When to use investment theory versus data, and how you know when you have chosen correctly
- How the guests review their managers and analyze their results
- What organizations of different sizes can do to prepare for a crisis
- How Steven sees the new fee structure for hedge funds, that TRS helped develop, as more reasonable than the standard 2&20
- How a race to the bottom for management fees can remove much of the creative energy from the alternative manager space
- What excites Trent about the BBB section of the investment grade bond market
- What is new and upcoming in the hedge fund space
- The reading that our guests never miss inside and outside of the investment space
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus Holdings
Learn more about Trent Webster and State Board of Administration of Florida
Learn more about Steven Wilson and Teacher Retirement System of Texas
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI24: Why Trend Following has "failed" to attract a lot of Assets ft. Meb Faber
Meb Faber joins the show to discuss his journey into Trend Following, where Trend Following funds have gone wrong in terms of attracting assets & growing AUM, why he started his company Cambria Investments and the difficulties that this involved, the perceived safety of US Treasuries, Mutual Funds vs ETFs, and a lot more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:30 – Weekly review of performance
06:25 – Meb's backstory
10:15 – Jerry question: Why don’t CTAs have more AUM?
16:50 – Moritz question: When and why did you start your firm?
21:00 – Moritz question: Why do you think TF and value is a great blend?
28:00 – Niels question: Please talk about the perceived safety of US Treasuries (based on your research) and why you use a broader portfolio.
36:20 – Niels question: What needs to happen before Betterment (and others) embrace TF?
40:15 – Moritz question: Why did you set up an ETF vs a mutual fund or another vehicle?
50:00 – Jerry question: What needs to happen for mutual funds to be competitive with ETFs (tax wise)?
53:00 – Niels question: With ETFs do you have to disclose your trading methodology?
57:00 – Jerry question: What do you think of products designed for client desires/tolerances compared to optimally designed pure TF products?
01:02:30 – Jerry question: What is your opinion on active mgt = discretionary & index = systematic?
01:12:30 – Niels questions: What are your favorite factors? How is your competition going with Patrick O’Shaughnessy?
01:19:30 – Moritz question: Do you trade any vol products?
01:25:45 – Jerry question: Why isn’t there a distinction between the good (full trading systems) and bad (market timing indicators) parts of systems trading in articles?
01:30:45 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT20: The Looming Pension Crisis ft. Jake Barton, Trent Webster & Steven Wilson – 1of2
On today’s episode Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. As managers of the investment of pensions and alternative portfolios, our guests today get in depth on how they use trend following to improve their client’s capital, from interpersonal strategies in choosing a portfolio, how the funding status of a pension can affect a board’s strategy, and what guides them in making the choices they do for their holdings.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the guests got their start in investing
- Trent’s philosophy for choosing his investments
- What Jake looks for when working with managers
- The core beliefs and principles that drive each of the guest’s decisions
- How the funding level of the pension fund can change investment decisions
- The varying degrees of differentiation and how it changes with the markets
- Why our guests are firmly committed to trend following even after a few years of lower returns
- Why convincing boards to invest in a hedge fund can be so difficult
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus Holdings
Learn more about Trent Webster and State Board of Administration of Florida
Learn more about Steven Wilson and Teacher Retirement System of Texas
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI23: What is the value of the 200-Day Moving Average?
What is the value of the 200-day Moving Average, the benefit of tried and tested strategies vs new and trendy strategies? Are drawdowns a necessary component of a robust strategy, and what is the optimum startup capital? These, and a lot more we discuss this week.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:45 – Announcement: Meb Faber will be on the show next week please send questions
01:50 – Weekly review of performance
06:40 – Top tweets
19:00 – Question 1: Alfred; What are some filters to increase the accuracy of breakouts?
25:25 – Question 2/3: Walter; Do you use volume as a signal in your systems? I’ve heard you mention more volatile systems are more robust, please explain why.
41:00 – Question 4: Paul; Please discuss big data, market predictions, and the relationship to TF.
47:40 – Question 5: Robert; Are Chesapeake’s single stock positions being traded via futures or cash equities?
50:00 – Question 6/7/8: Chris; Why don’t more TF use single stocks? Do you put on positions the day of the signal or wait until end of week (or similar)? How do you think about stop losses in a portfolio?
01:02:20 – Question 9: Matt; What needs to happen for investors to embrace TF like you all have?
01:09:30 – Question 10/11: Peter-Francois; How do you handle existing positions and inflows/outflows of capital? Do you adjust stop loss levels when new investors come in to existing positions?
01:14:30 – Question 12: Francois; What is your take on factor investing such as value and momentum?
01:26:30 – Question 13: Alex; How would you trade $20k vs $20mm?
01:31:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO13: The History of Trend Following
The concept of Trend Following has been around for a long time, but it wasn’t until a few years back, that the Bible on Trend Following was written by Kathryn Kaminski and Alex Greyserman. Today, I am delighted to share some of the interesting lessons, insights, and key things that Kathryn Kaminski took away from the long road to publishing this book.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI22: Can intra-day trading be scaled to a big business?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:15 – Weekly review of performance
06:10 – Top tweets
28:45 – Book mention: The Systems Bible by John Gall
38:25 – Question 1: Craig; Should all markets be considered equal from a TF perspective?
44:00 – Question 2: Johannes; Can intraday trading be scaled into a big business?
51:00 – Question 3: Manuel; What are good rules for managing position sizes to keep risk at a reasonable level as winners inherently grow with Trend Following?
58:10 – Question 4/5: George; Why does TF seem to need so many return drivers for optimal diversification? How much could a TF strategy lose at once if all went wrong?
01:11:15 – Question 6: Francois; Are TF interested in the sine of the speed of the trend only and not the actual speed?
01:17:40 – Question 7/8: Samuel; How do you roll positions? What are your favorite resources to stay up to date on systematic investing (journals, podcasts, subscriptions, authors)?
01:30:20 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO12: Market Psychology & Universal Truths
A while back, I had a very enjoyable time speaking to Scott Foster from Dominion Capital Management, who is not your typical Trader. He draws from a wide range of influences such as Aristotle, Magic, and Austrian Economics. I am delighted to share some of these deep insights with you in this short blog post, and I hope you enjoy these unique views and observations from Scott.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI21: Why the biggest drawdown is always ahead of you or so they say
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:30 – Weekly review of performance
14:00 – Top tweets
26:55 – Question 1: Samuel; What is a good CTA trading cost hurdle rate?
34:10 Question 2: Samuel; Why do people say your biggest drawdown is always in front of you?
41:10 – Question 3: Michael; How much has your parameter set changed (and related questions)?
50:10 – Question 4: Francois; What do you know about Renaissance Technologies (Jim Simons)?
56:30 – Miami conference review+TF thoughts
01:10:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO11: Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication
A few years back, I had a great discussion with die-hard Trend Follower, Scot Billington. I would like to share some key moments with you, including how to perceive past track records, and also some of the differences between the long side and the short side.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI20: Crisis Alpha...To Love or Not To Love
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT19: Who actually learned from the last financial crisis? ft. Andrew Lo & Sol Waksman – 2of2
Today Niels Kaastrup-Larsen continues his conversation with Andrew Lo, the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Sol Waksman, the Founder and President of BarclayHedge, Ltd. Listen in to learn the effects of politics in the financial markets and how trend following fits in, the state of cryptocurrency in the current market, and the advice our guests have for investors and their future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why relatively so few investors have added managed futures and trend following to their portfolio, despite all the evidence
- The lessons different groups of people can still learn from the economic crisis of 2008
- How political uncertainty affects where investors put their money
- What Sol sees as the constant lesson we should be learning from these periodic economic events
- Why investors have a hard time grasping the advantages of the liquidity that trend following brings to investments
- The present and future impact of artificial intelligence on the finance industry
- Why Andrew believes the centralization to one cryptocurrency is inevitable
- The advice Andrew and Sol have for investors to prepare for the future
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT Sloan School of Management
Learn more about Sol Waksman and BarclayHedge, Ltd
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI19: Can you apply Trend Following to Life?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Weekly review of performance
23:00 – Top Tweets
43:40 – Question 1: Michael; Can we apply TF principles to things other than markets (real life)?
48:50 – Question 2: George; What is your competitive advantage?
57:55 – Announcement: Meb Faber will be joining the group in late February, send your questions
58:35 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT18: Are markets really Efficient? ft. Andrew Lo & Sol Waksman – 1of2
On today’s episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Andrew Lo, the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Sol Waksman, the Founder and President of BarclayHedge, Ltd. Our guests today have many years of experience in the world of investing and have watched the finance industry as it has gone through its many changes. Listen in to learn the historical importance of separating the alpha from the beta, the increase of the volatility of volatility since 2007, and common misconceptions about diversification in a portfolio.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How our guests got their starts in finance
- Why Andrew thinks that sometimes things need to be believed to be seen
- Why separating the alpha from the beta has been revolutionary for the entire financial industry
- How the narrative of finance and investing has changed over time in the futures industry
- The increase in the volatility of volatility over the last decade and what that means for managed futures
- How the abundance of passive investing tools has changed the investor’s experience during market changes
- What investors are looking for in their tools and strategies
- What alternative strategies are investors looking at now
- The experiment Andrew does with his audiences he speaks to on their investment preferences
- What investors need to understand about diversification and risk
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT Sloan School of Management
Learn more about Sol Waksman and BarclayHedge, Ltd
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI18: How to know if you are over-fitting your model parameters
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:25 – Weekly recap of performance
08:40 – Top tweets
24:05 – Question 1: CR Capital; Thoughts on Winton retreating from TF
30:55 – Question 2: Bill; Do you add to positions as the trend progresses
34:35 – Question 3: George; Why don’t you include short-term TF systems in a robust TF system
44:40 – Question 4: Nick; How would I know if I’m curve fitting my systems
53:10 – Question 5: Richard; Several questions about: historical data distributions; long-term trend following efficacy and related concerns
01:03:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI17: The philosophy of Trend Following
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:40 – Weekly review of performance
07:30 – Annual review
22:00 – Top Tweets/Related discussions (Good info on process/philosophy this week)
40:20 – Questions
41:00 – Question 1: George
45:00 – Question 2: George
50:00 – Question 3: Michael
01:08:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI16: What Returns and Drawdowns can you expect from Trend Following
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:55 – Weekly review of performance
13:00 – Top tweets
35:30 – Question 1: George; Is there a best system to trade trends?
49:20 – Question 2: George; Why have discretionary macro traders outperformed TF?
55:25 – Question 3/4: George; What is a safe expectation for systems in terms of CAGR to Drawdown? Do you think a “golden” period for TF like the 1970s will come back?
01:04:00 – Question 5: Liew: What price should my trailing stop reference (high, low, close, etc.)?
01:08:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI15: Has too much Diversification hurt performance in recent years?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Weekly review of performance
05:50 – Top tweets
19:30 – Question 1: Michael; Are trend followers relaxed (in terms of personality) in general?
23:00 – Question 2: Michael; Why does TF not work on stocks work?
28:30 – Question 3: Michael; How do you measure single stock correlation?
33:05 – Question 4: Nick; Do you ever front run your systems?
35:00 – Question 5: David; Have you ever been through a market similar to this year (2018) and how did it turn out/what did you learn?
38:45 – Question 6: Can you give us a proven TF strategy (ex. Donchian)?
43:05 – Question 7/8: Timothy; Has too much diversification hurt TF in the last decade? Should TF focus on markets that are trending?
52:10 – Question 9: Anish; How do you identify relative strength and accordingly allocate capital between different asset classes?
59:55 – Question 10: Does the intensity of trends change over time?
01:04:30 – Question 11/12: Have the markets changed during your time as a trader and if so how? If a market has been trending is it more likely to continue trending than to reverse?
01:16:10 – Question 13: Nitesh; Is Short-term TF impossible now or does it need to be done differently from medium to long-term?
01:18:00 – Question 14: Dave; How do you select a universe of single stocks for TF?
01:21:20 – Question 15/16: Ted; What are the parameters you use around Nat Gas? With high volatility swings, how do stay in a position?
01:25:50 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO10: Systematic Global Macro…an Experts view
A while back I had a very memorable time talking with Anders Lindell, discussing many trading related topics. There was one part in particular that I want to share where Anders shared his understanding on US institutions and how they deal with asset allocation and position sizing. If you would like to find out then read on!
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI14: How many markets should you include in your portfolio?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:30 – Weekly review of performance
11:50 – Top tweets and much more
45:50 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO09: From Discretionary Trading to a Systematic Approach
At the very beginning of my podcasting career, I had a great conversation with Mike Dever covering many trading related topics, one of which were the different approaches to trading. And there was One segment I really liked in particular, and which I would like to share with you today. It was a segment where Mike shared his own systematic approach to trading and as you listen to it, we need to keep in mind that Mike was not always a systematic trader.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI13: The market impact of too much money following trends
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT17: What makes Bitcoin "anti-fragile"? ft. James Koutolas, Tim McCourt & Roy Niederhoffer – 2of2
Today guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Tim McCourt, the Global Head of Equity Index and Alternative Investment Products at CME Group, James Koutolas, CEO of Typhon Capital Management, and Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management. Listen in to learn more about the future of cryptocurrency technologies, the unprecedented strength of the blockchain in Bitcoin, and how the SEC and world economies are looking into cryptocurrencies.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How pick-and-shovel plays are faring in the crypto market
- Why Roy is hesitant to make any judgments about the future of cryptocurrency technologies
- What people are calling the “inconsistent trinity of crypto”
- The future of scalability in crypto
- Why the cost of trading crypto is not an issue to worry about
- What makes the blockchain one of the most secure things ever created
- What makes Bitcoin “anti-fragile”
- Where the SEC stands now on regulation of Bitcoin
- Why James worries about ICO’s and the security behind them
- What makes Bitcoin such a unique trading commodity
- Why James sees new all-time highs in Bitcoin in 2019
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about James Koutolas and Typhon Capital Management
Learn more about Tim McCourt and CME Group
Learn more about Roy Niederhoffer and R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI12: What causes drawdowns and how to deal with them
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:45 – Weekly review of performance
14:55 – Top tweets
39:40 – Referenced paper: Stock market charts you never saw by McQuarrie
40:15 – Question 1: Patrick; Longer question on notional exposure relative to actual capital
47:05 – Question 2: Brian; What causes drawdowns in TF?
56:05 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT16: The birth of the first Futures on Crypto ft. James Koutolas, Tim McCourt & Roy Niederhoffer – 1of2
On today’s episode, guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Tim McCourt, the Global Head of Equity Index and Alternative Investment Products at CME Group, James Koutolas, CEO of Typhon Capital Management, and Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management. Our guests today are at the forefront of cryptocurrency investment and their views give insight on where it is headed, from public acceptance to their integration in managed futures. Listen in to today’s episode to learn what makes cryptocurrency unique in human history, the long-term effects of investment, and the new developments that change how we invest them.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What makes Bitcoin so unique among the history of currencies
- The differences between Ethereum and Bitcoin
- What challenges CME faced in creating a futures on something virtual
- How interest in cryptocurrency has changed over the last couple of years
- Why the guests disagree about the public long-term interest in cryptocurrency
- The historical precedent for the benefits of futures in the economy
- How the various kinds of traders make their financial system work so well
- The trading strategies around cryptocurrency and how it has evolved
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about James Koutolas and Typhon Capital Management
Learn more about Tim McCourt and CME Group
Learn more about Roy Niederhoffer and R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI11: Why hire a manager when you can DIY your Trend Following?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:30 – Weekly review of performance
26:50 – Top tweets
35:50 – Question 1: Brian; How do you onboard clients?
43:40 – Question 2: Mike; If you could only choose one word to describe the key benefit of TF what would it be/how would you describe TF in a minute or less?
50:10 – Question 3: George; Since TF rules are known, why hire a manager (vs build my own TF strategy)?
01:00:30 – Question 4: George; How should an investor select a specific TF manager?
01:05:20- Question 5: George; Why hire an active TF manager with higher fees vs hiring a lower fee TF “beta” manager?
01:09:30 – Question 6: Francois; Are there CTAs/HFs still using point and figure charts?
01:13:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU109: Risk Mitigation Whilst Trading Exotic Markets ft. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital – 2of2
Moritz Seibert and I continue our conversation with Doug Greenig, talking about the many different ways risk can manifest in your firm, how best to minimize it, and why building a strong team is one of the most important elements in staying ahead in the trend following space. Listen in to learn the many benefits of getting into exotic markets, how to best manage your risk, and what all investors should be asking themselves to better their portfolio.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What makes the exotic market space so good to trade in right now
- How Doug knows there is still a lot of room left for trading in the exotic market space
- The difficulties Doug has had in attracting investors to investing in exotic markets
- Why momentum should be your key signal when investing in exotic markets
- The role cash equities play in Doug’s portfolio
- Why Doug has reservations in trading VIX
- The different varieties of risk and how to minimize them
- The importance of focusing on model risk
- Benefits of building and maintaining a good team
- What questions investors should be asking themselves
-----
Follow Doug Greenig on LinkedIn
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI10: How to set your Stop-Loss and Size your Positions?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:45 – Weekly review of performance
09:15 – Top tweets
14:20 – Paper from Jim O’Shaughnessy from 1987
29:50 – Question 1: Andrew; How do you get the TF message across to advisors?
39:40 – Question 2: George; Please discuss position sizing.
39:40 – Question 3: George; Please discuss how far stops should be from entry (5%, etc.)
39:40 – Question 4: George; Do you think the future is a hybrid of TF and discretionary?
52:10 – Question 5; Francois; Long question about correlations
57:15 – Benchmark performance update
58:00 – Additional discussions of systems trading
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU108: Big Opportunities in Exotic Markets? ft. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital – 1of2
Today I’m joined by my co-host Moritz Seibert to speak with Doug Greenig, the Founder, CEO, and CIO at Florin Court Capital. Doug’s early experiences in economics at Princeton and UC Berkeley helped kick off his career in finance, and his work at BARRA in Berkeley started his eventual dive into the CTA space. Trading in exotic markets has helped Doug and his firm capitalize on unique opportunities and fully utilize the systematic trading model. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Doug got started in systematic trading and exotic markets, how he built his team at Florin Court, and how he has utilized exotic markets to their fullest potential.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Doug got started in finance
- Why Doug got into the CTA space
- How systematic trading intrigued Doug more than discretionary trading
- The inspiration behind the name Florin Court Capital
- Who influenced Doug in his financial career
- What Doug learned from working with Fischer Black (co-inventor of the Black-Scholes model)
- How Doug found such an experienced team in the early days of Florin Court Capital
- The exotic markets that Doug is trading
- What makes these exotic markets easier, or better to trade
- Where to find the right balance of exotic versus traditional markets
- What gives an asset more or less momentum, and why crypto is so special in this regard
- How Doug selects his markets, and his long-term strategy for maintaining that collection
- Why Florin Court Capital has stayed out of trading spot crypto
- How to adapt the different markets to the standard models
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Doug Greenig on LinkedIn
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI09: What really makes a Trend Follower a Trend Follower?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Weekly review of performance
08:50 – Top tweets
24:30 – Question 1: Brian; What makes a trend follower a trend follower (are there variations on TF)?
32:20 – Question 2: Seth; What is the best way to achieve diversification in the fixed income/rates sector?
38:45 – Discussion papers: Winton, Tim Price
49:30 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO08: How to really Define Risk
During a conversation I had with expert Bill Dreiss, we discussed many topics, all with great value. One part in particular I found really interesting, and which I would like to share with you, was when I asked Bill how he defines risk. If you would like to l know what Bill said then keep listening!
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI08: How to tell if you system has stopped working?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Weekly recap of performance
20:15 – Top tweets
38:50 – Question 1: Kyle; What’s the preferred method of dynamically adjusting/rebalancing a portfolio?
49:30 – Question 2: Dave; Please describe ways to reduce risk in drawdowns
52:50 – Question 3: Dimitry; What time frames do you consider too long to be effective (ex. quarterly)
57:45- Question 4: Dimitry; At what point in drawdown (%) do you say something is wrong with the system?
01:01:30 – Question 5: Robert; Do you typically trade the front month contract or use proprietary methods to select contracts?
01:04:30 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO07: Cold Turtle Takeaways
It’s not often you get to sit down with a Turtle, let alone the father of the Turtle Experiment, and when I do I find it fascinating learning about the different experiences and outcomes that emerged from what really can be boiled down to 2 to 3 weeks of training in how to use trading rules to make money in the markets. What was truly unique about the conversation I want to share a few key takeaways from today, is that Richard Dennis was joined by two of his Turtles, namely Jerry Parker and Brian Proctor, where they shared some of their personal impressions from their time together…things that has not really ever been discussed publicly. We even discussed their research in to “counter-trend” models…not something you would think the Turtles would spend time on…and of course just having Richard Dennis share his wisdom was huge.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI07: What is; alpha, smart beta, implied vol, crisis alpha and convexity?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:15 – Weekly recap of performance
08:30 – Discussion of recent articles
21:30 – Top tweets
36:10 – Question 1: Mohit; Discuss moving averages as a TF device; position sizing; correlations
43:20 – Question 2; Paul; How many investors are out there who use TF but their AUM doesn’t show up in the official industry AUM #s
47:10 – Question 3: John; Asked about industry jargon and definitions: alpha; smart beta, implied vol, crisis alpha, convexity
51:30 – Question 4: Mohit; Is looking at correlations in the rearview mirror fallible?
52:50 – Question 5: Dave; What is the average time in trade of winners in a medium-term system?
57:10 – Question 6: What software do you use for backtesting/system management?
01:01:40 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU107: The Bright Future of Trend Following ft. Jean Jacques Duhot of Arctic Blue Capital – 2of2
Moritz Seibert and I continue our conversation with Jean Jacques Duhot and further discuss his contrarian and multi-part model, how his management company has stayed lean, and how the due diligence of investors and managers has changed the trading space for the better. Listen in to learn the unique properties of Jean Jacques new equities program, what he sees in the future of trend following, and who has influenced him most.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Jean Jacques knows when to change his position in his “all-in” approach
- Why Arctic Blue’s acquisition by H2O has been such a positive experience
- How H2O is helping Arctic Blue stay lean and focused
- What is unique about Arctic Blue’s new equities program
- What Jean Jacques defines as risk in his model
- What excites and scares Jean Jacques about about the future
- The most useful information Jean Jacques has learned about trend following
- Why Jean Jacques believes the due diligence of managers by investors is the best it’s been
- What books Jean Jacques recommends for anybody in the trend following and investing space
- Who influenced Jean Jacques in his journey into trend following
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jean Jacques on LinkedIn.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO06: Identifying the best trading rules
In any systematic trading strategy choosing the right combination of parameters for your model or approach is critical. So today, I wanted to share a valuable takeaway from a conversation with Bill Dreiss, where we discuss his thoughts, experience and approach to identifying parameter sets which I think you will find to be rather different to most managers. Bill and I discussed this as well as many other super interesting aspects of trading from his 40+ year career and I think these lessons will benefit you immensely.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI06: How to optimize your trading system
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:15 – Weekly recap of performance
05:30 – Top tweets
34:30 – Question set 1: George; Please discuss system optimization/backtesting details
43:30 – Question set 2: George; How do you determine when a system is broken? Do you keep losing markets in a system?
49:50 – Question set 3: George; How do you avoid curve fitting? How do you choose best parameters?
55:55 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU106: The Value of Being a Contrarian Trader ft. Jean Jacques Duhot of Arctic Blue Capital – 1of2
Today I’m joined by my co-host Moritz Seibert to speak with Jean Jacques Duhot, the Chief Investment Officer at Arctic Blue Capital. Jean Jacques’s observations of different discretionary trading teams has given him valuable insight into a variety of trading methods and has allowed him to develop a unique multi-part model that utilizes the role of a contrarian mindset to great success. Listen in to today’s episode to learn about the beginnings of Arctic Blue Capital, how Jean Jacques developed his multi-part model, and how he tested it using a specifically “agnostic” outlook.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Arctic Blue Capital got it’s start
- What influenced Jean Jacques in how he developed his unique “contrarian” trend following system
- How Jean Jacques shaped his multi-part trend-following model
- Who the three different types of traders are in his model
- Why Jean Jacques took a more “agnostic” outlook when he tested his model
- The reason why using a relatively small portfolio of markets benefits Jean Jacques’s model
- Why Jean Jacques prefers ETF over the futures markets
- How VIX can act as a warning signal
- Why going in full on a new signal works for Jean Jacques
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jean Jacques Duhot on Linkedin
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO05: The Problems with Smart Beta & the Holy Grail of Investing?
Kathryn Kaminski and I had the opportunity to sit down with Nigol Koulajian, the founder of Quest Partners, in which he shared his deep insights in many areas of trading. During our conversation, there were a few short segments that I particularly enjoyed and I would love to share them with you here. Below you can learn about Nigols take on the problems with Smart Beta, and also his explanation of Filtering being the Holy Grail. This interview was packed with insight and wisdom.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI05: The Systematic Investor Series – October 15th, 2018
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Weekly recap of performance
09:10 – Top tweets
19:51 – Niels discusses his trend barometer: (http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/)
34:00 – Question 1: Raphael; What is the optimal portfolio allocation?
39:50 – Question 2: Dave; Please explain the trend barometer (link above)
40:50 – Question 3: Dave; Do you change position sizes as a trade progresses?
45:00 – Question 4: When would a TF system be flat (no position)?
47:00 – Question 5: Mohit; What is your worst trade ever?
53:40 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO04: Return Dispersion and how to successfully trade since 1974
In today’s post, I would like to share with you some really great moments and unique takeaways from a conversation I had with Marty Bergin, the president and owner of DUNN Capital Management, where Marty shares his views on Return Dispersion and how those experiences, together with extensive research, has enabled them to produce a more robust trend following process for their clients.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI04: Stanley Druckenmiller interview disected
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Weekly recap of performance
05:15 – Top tweets (lengthy discussion of Druckenmiller interview)
35:00 – Question 1: Barry; Do you use synthetic instruments in your trading?
38:20 – Benchmark performance update
39:15 – Jerry on Trend + Fundamentals
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO03: How the Turtles got their Name… and are the Rules Relevant Today?
Today I would like to share some really great and unique takeaways from a conversation I had with the one and only Richard Dennis, the father of the Turtle Project from back in the 1980’s as well as two of his turtles, namely Brian Proctor and Jerry Parker. In our conversation we put the record straight for the first time on a number of myths about the Turtle experiment including How the Turtles got their name, and if the original rules that were applied with great success 30+ years ago would still be relevant today, and also how long it took Jerry and Brian to make sense of them. So let’s get straight to it, starting off with the very beginning of The Turtle story.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI03: Should you trade Futures or ETFs?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Weekly recap of performance
27:50 – Top tweets
40:50 – Question 1: Craig; What are the greatest regulatory concerns at present?
49:00 – Question 2: Francois; How long did it take before you stopped modifying and religiously followed your system?
56:30 – Question 3: Francois; What are the pros and cons of futures vs ETFs?
59:30- Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO02: The secret to successfully using Machine Learning
Today I would like to share with you some life lessons and learnings from expert Robert Sinnott, where he shares his in depth knowledge of the modern evolution of systematic trading, in the form of Machine learning, and how machine learning has effected and impacted their short term and long term strategies. If you would like to hear the full episode then you can listen by clicking here. I’m pretty sure you are going to learn something valuable from what Robert shared with me.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI02: Is the popularity of Short Volatility investing hurting Trend Followers?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Weekly review of performance
07:30 – Interesting news
20:20 – Top tweets
28:20 – Question 1: Brian; Discuss the impact of shorting volatility on CTAs
32:20 – Question 2: Brian; Will there be more TF mutual funds and ETFs?
36:00 – Question 3: Bruno; How should one implement proper technology for a CTA?
40:30 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
BO01: The Impact of Volatility Trading ft. Nigol Koulajian
Kathryn Kaminski and I had the opportunity to sit down with Nigol Koulajian, the founder of Quest Partners, in which he shared his wealth of experience including life lessons and even his take on the modern scientific trading systems that are used today. One of topics which I particularly liked, and would like to share with you here, was his view on the VIX and Volatility trading within the managed futures industry and also outside of the industry.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI01: Who we are...and Why we are doing this series
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Who we are
04:10 – Why we are doing the podcast
09:00 – Topics people should expect and podcast structure
19:10 – Weekly review of performance
33:00 – Top tweets
39:45 – Benchmark performance update
40:30 – Question: Bruno; Why do some funds get to the billion mark and others don’t?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT15: Avoiding unrealistic expectations in Crypto ft. Jennifer Sunu, Arthur Bell & JP Bruynes – 2of2
Today Niels continues his conversation with Jennifer Sunu, who is the director of compliance at the NFA, Arthur Bell, CPA and managing member of Bell Tower LLC, and JP Bruynes, who is a partner at the law firm Akin Gump.
Listen in to today’s episode as we focus on how regulators are helping and sometimes hurting managers and clients, the importance of cyber security as a CTA, the way that cryptocurrencies have changed the way we trade, some of the best things that have happened to managed futures over the last twenty years, and how the market has been affected.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The dangers of over-regulation
- What we can learn from blow-ups at the manager level and how to avoid them in the future
- Why investors need to do their due diligence to avoid fraud
- What the NFA considers in reviewing educational and promotional materials
- How to ensure your promotional material is meeting NFA guidelines
- Why pundits on news shows are allowed to make predictions on markets that may be just an educated guess
- The importance of cyber security and how to you can protect yourself
- What impact cryptocurrencies may have on futures markets
- How regulators are working to help clients avoid unrealistic expectations in cryptocurrencies
- The best things that have happened to managed futures in the last twenty years
- What has changed regarding the Volcker rule in the past few years
- How flat fee products are changing the industry
- Why we need to worry about the “race to zero”
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Jennifer Sunu and the National Futures Association
Learn more about Arthur Bell and Bell Tower LLC
Learn more about JP Bruynes and Akin Gump
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT14: What it takes to set up a CTA business ft. Jennifer Sunu, Arthur Bell & JP Bruynes – 1of2
On today’s episode Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Jennifer Sunu, who is the director of compliance at the NFA, Arthur Bell, CPA and managing member of Bell Tower LLC, and JP Bruynes, who is a partner at the law firm Akin Gump.
Listen in to today’s episode as we focus on how the managed futures industry is organized, how it has changed since the industry started, who the key players are and what role do they play, and how regulators keep an eye on all these players to ensure they play fairly.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What got our guests into managed futures
- The basic structure of the managed futures industry
- What role each of the key players have in managed futures
- How the different regulatory bodies work together in the US
- The different ways that hedge fund management has changed over the last twenty years
- How the industry has evolved over the last forty years
- Why our guests believe that investing in managed futures is a good idea
- What it takes to set up a CTA today
- The importance of understanding your edge as a CTA
- What first steps a new CTA is going to take in working with regulators
- What Jennifer recommends for younger CTA’
- The questions new investors should be asking to find the best CTA for them
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Jennifer Sunu and the National Futures Association
Learn more about Arthur Bell and Bell Tower LLC
Learn more about JP Bruynes and Akin Gump
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU105: The Many Flavors of Trend Following ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen of DUNN Capital (Europe)
We’re changing things up on today’s episode of the podcast: we have with us Frank Conway from the Economic Rockstar Podcast interviewing Niels about trend following strategies, asset allocation, and more. Listen in to find out what changes need to be made in the trend following space, the importance and benefits of your asset allocation when it comes to your investments, and new publications that can take you farther in mastering trend following and managed futures.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Niels has worked hard to keep his explanation of trend following as simple as possible
- Why at the end of the day, all investors are trend followers
- What really sets one trend follower apart from another
- How trend following techniques have evolved over time
- What traits Niels sees in the company he works with as most important in their 40+ year success
- The challenges and difficulties of trend following
- Why trying to do it yourself in trend following can hurt rather than help
- Why successfully executing a trend following strategy is not something that Niels believes everybody can or should do
- Why despite their successes, many trend followers feel an embarrassment in showing their track records
- How the right asset allocation can build safer and better performing portfolios
- Why it’s important to have “skin in the game” as an investment manager
- The importance of COI versus ROI
- What Niels thinks of cryptocurrencies and how it relates to trend following
- Why DUNN Capital trades the VIX and its importance in their portfolio
- What inspired Niels to write his recent books on trend following and managed futures
- The purpose behind Niels outreach, whether it’s podcasts, books, newsletters, or anything else
- What Niels hopes people will get out of his books
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU104: The Passive & The Active Investor ft. Harold de Boer of Transtrend – 2of2
Katy Kaminski and I continue our conversation with Harold de Boer, and discuss his philosophy behind pure trend and divergent trading, as well as why Harold believes Transtrend is unique in the managed future space. In this episode, we talk about the benefits of synthetic trading, Harold’s advice to a new rising star, and what he is looking forward to going forward.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Harold views pure trend and divergent trading within Transtrend
- What pure trend means today in comparison to what it used to mean
- What it means to Harold to serve his clients best through his trading
- How trading synthetic markets helps to profit from trends
- What Harold thinks is unique about Transtrend’s trading model
- The research projects that inspire Harold right now
- Why Harold believes it’s unrealistic to expect returns without volatility
- The differences between the passive and active investor
- What excites Harold about 2018
- The things that scare Harold and keep him up at night
- Why risk management should be done by anticipation, not by response
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on Twitter
Follow Harold de Boer on Linkedin
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU103: Trading In The Medium-Term Space ft. Harold de Boer of Transtrend – 1of2
Harold De Boer is a Managing Director, Member of Management Committee and Member of Board of Directors at Transtrend B.V. Growing up, Harold’s interest in statistics grew out of his work at his family’s dairy farm, and expanded into the world of trading and managed futures. Listen in to learn about Harold’s unique perspective on the industry, his marketing philosophy, and some of the most important lessons he’s learned during his successful career.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Harold got started with statistics at a young age
- Why Harold’s first job as a mathematician was intended to be only temporary
- How that first job transformed into Harold’s work at Transtrend
- When the Turtles project was discovered by Transtrend in its early years
- How being bought by a larger organization did not affect Transtrend’s operation
- Some of Harold’s biggest lessons he has learned
- How his time on a dairy farm informs Harold’s approach to trend following
- What investors underestimate and don’t understand about managed futures
- The only thing that actually drives the markets
- How market dynamics changed as a result of the transition from floor trading to electronic trading
- Why Harold believes that Transtrends program should be called “medium-term”
- Why Harold believes positive alpha does not actually exist
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on Twitter
Follow Harold de Boer on Linkedin
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU102: What Institutions have Learnt about Investing ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 2of2
Katy Kaminski and I continue our conversation with Nigol Koulajian, and discuss if his strategies of working with, around, and doing the opposite of what many investors are doing, has given him any advantages? In this episode, we talk about the risk of research and data affecting the market, why he distrusts in many institutional teachings of finance, and what he is looking forward to this year.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How savvy investors stay ahead of the curve
- Why you need to isolate yourself from the hivemind of mainstream investors
- Why those using smart beta have not succeeded recently
- Nigol’s opinion on VIX’s impact in and outside the managed futures industry
- How Nigol adapts to the changing industry
- Why Nigol calls filtering the “holy grail” and how he uses it
- The state of institutional and scientific learning of investing
- How research into the markets affects their behavior
- What opportunities 2018 brings for Nigol and other investors
- Why Nigol believes CTA’s are still very useful for managed futures
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on Twitter
Follow Nigol Koulajian on LinkedIn
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU101: Should You Trust The Short-Term Over The Long-Term? ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 1of2
Nigol Koulajian is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Quest Partners LLC, and has been designing and trading short-term and long-term technical systems for over 22 years. Coming from Columbia business school, many of Nigol’s general practices seem counter-intuitive but have consistently yielded results. This interview will help get you deeper into the trading and management philosophy that has made Quest Partners such a successful firm.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Nigol got started with trading systems
- How Quest Partners grew to where it is today
- What Nigol has learned from his unique path into managed futures
- Why clearly defining your process is value added to your product
- Why Nigol is okay with always being in a state of failure
- How developing nuance in his intuitive process has become Nigol’s greatest asset
- What role meditation has played in Nigol’s career
- What factors played into Quest’s success
- Why Quest takes tail risk into account while normalizing returns
- Why Nigol puts more trust in short-term over the long-term
- Some of Nigol’s short-term trading strategies
- What Nigol is studying right now
- How writing white papers has helped Nigol’s relationships with his clients
- Why focusing on your investors can be hurting your long-term growth
- How Quest Partners has changed to fit the post-2010 financial climate
- The problem with smart beta
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on Twitter
Follow Nigol on LinkedIn
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU100: Being Transparent With Your Clients ft. Robert Sinnott of AlphaSimplex – 2of2
In our continued conversation with Robert Sinnott, Katy Kaminski and I dive into why AlphaSimplex has been so successful, why Robert values transparency in his firm so highly, and what he advises for new and rising-star investors. He goes deep into what he is excited about and afraid of with managed futures, and what he’s looking forward to accomplishing with AlphaSimplex in the future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why AlphaSimplex maintains a pure trend program
- What problems in the trend following space Robert hopes to solve
- The challenges that AlphaSimplex deals with on a regular basis
- What factors have given AlphaSimplex its success
- Why Robert holds transparency in such high regard
- How the models Robert uses employ smart long-term and short-term assessment and why
- When your size as a firm hurts your performance
- What about managed futures makes Robert the most excited
- The things about managed futures that keep Robert up at night
- Why the models you are reading about are wrong
- Robert’s advice for young and rising star investors
- Why Robert believes the right question can often more important than the answer
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about Joe Blitzstein’s “Introduction to Probability”
- Find out more about my co-host Katy Kaminski’s “Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha”
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU99: The Good and Bad of Machine Learning ft. Robert Sinnott of AlphaSimplex – 1of2
From the very beginning, Robert Sinnott has studied the movement of the markets and how to anticipate their changes. Robert earned both an A.B. and an A.M. in Statistics from Harvard University, where he focused on statistical machine learning, capital markets, and time series analysis.
In our conversation, my co-host Katy Kaminski and I talk with Robert about how he has used these skills to redesign AlphaSimplex’s performance analytics infrastructure and develop smarter machine learning processes, and how Robert employs this data with such success.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The history behind AlphaSimplex and how it began
- How Robert got involved with AlphaSimplex
- How the surrounding technology industry affects Robert’s work
- What lessons Robert has learned from his time at AlphaSimplex
- How Robert spends his time outside of his work
- How adaptive markets shape the way Robert works
- Why Robert utilizes machine learning and how it benefits AlphaSimplex
- The dangers of relying too much on machine learning
- What makes AlphaSimplex’s machine learning so easy to understand
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about Joe Blitzstein’s “Introduction to Probability”
- Find out more about my co-host Katy Kaminski’s “Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha”
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU98: Adapting to the Ever Changing Markets ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital – 2of2
Katy Kaminski and I continue our conversation with Marty Bergin, and discuss his philosophy behind DUNN Capital’s success, and why many investors don’t understand trend following strategies. In this episode, we will discuss what investors and trend followers should be focusing on, and what risks excessive regulation may lead to for the industry.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How DUNN views it’s expansion into more markets
- Why their NO management fee policy has helped DUNN throughout the years
- How DUNN will adapt to the ever changing market environment
- What investors have a hard time understanding about trend followers
- Marty’s goal over the next ten years
- What Marty fears most in his work at DUNN
- The most important question investors should be asking themselves right now
- Why Marty believes trend following strategies should be more widely available
- Marty’s advice to young investors and aspiring trend followers
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about DUNN: www.dunncapital.com
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU97: Putting Your Clients First...Always ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital – 1of2
Our guest today is the President and Owner of DUNN Capital. Having a deep background in finance and business management, Marty oversees all mission-critical operations of the firm, including the firm’s research and development efforts as well as the construction and management of the firm’s managed futures portfolios.
In our conversation, my co-host Katy Kaminski and I discuss with Marty DUNN Capital’s client-first business model, why he believes that their Adaptive Risk Profile has been a game-changer since its introduction in 2013, and how DUNN Capital has evolved since he joined more than 20 years ago.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Bill Dunn started DUNN Capital
- How Marty minimizes risk down to the base level
- What lessons Marty has learned from his time at DUNN Capital
- Why Marty believes being client-centric is key to DUNN Capital’s success
- How research plays a larger role within DUNN Capital than most people think
- How DUNN Capital has changed since Marty joined
- How Marty views return dispersion
- Why certain “diverse” stock choices are not very diverse
- What makes DUNN’s Adaptive Risk Profile unique
- The one thing that is missing from Marty’s trend following program
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT13: The legacy of AHL ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 3of3
On this special episode, my guests are the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.
We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about how they developed their investing strategies, some of the most surprising decisions they ever made, and what kind of legacy they would like to leave behind.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What Mike, David & Marty had to un-learn in order to improve their strategies
- Why David believes education can crush creativity
- How some “new” optimization methods hurts investors
- What David and Marty least like about their current strategies
- What they plan on doing when they no longer run their firms
- How David approaches succession planning
- The most important investment principles the guests would leave for their children
- Why only a small amount of investors still keep managed futures as a core allocation
- The most important decisions they ever made
- Which decisions had the most surprising results
- If the media will ever understand what managed futures actually are
- The legacy that AHL left in the world of investing
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs
Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group
Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT12: You don't have to be good...but you have to be useful ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 2of3
On this special episode, I continue my conversation with the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.
We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about what AHL’s founders did after they created the company, what they’ve learned along the way about business and life, and how they view the current market climates.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The future of a science-driven trading approach
- What David’s vision was when he started Winton Capital
- The beginnings of Aspect Capital
- Why Winton moved away from traditional trend following
- The challenges that equities and managed futures present for investors
- Why David chose to lower volatility of his strategy
- Michael’s experience with deep value investing
- When it’s time to ask “do you want to be happy or rich?”
- What caused Michael to leave the industry
- How they have evolve using different data sources and new markets
- The danger of “hindsight bias”
- What disadvantages machine learning have presented
- Why Marty views asset allocation as part of a trend following model
- How they see our current financial climate
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs
Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group
Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT11: AHL 30 Year Anniversary ft. Michael Adam, David Harding & Marty Lueck – 1of3
I was thrilled to be joined by the founders of AHL, to celebrate their 30 year anniversay of founding AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.
We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about AHL’s beginnings, the revolutionary discoveries that AHL made, how MAN Group became the owner of AHL, as well as all the great things that Michael, David and Marty went on to create.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How AHL got it’s start
- Why Michael’s father was instrumental in the beginning of AHL
- What struck David when testing their early algorithms
- Why their “empiricist” outlook gave them an early advantage
- How technology’s limits pushed their ideas
- The breakthroughs of AHL’s early research and how it still applies today
- Why being a consultant gave AHL deep insight into trading the markets
- The crucial role the early clients had in AHL’s development
- The power of finding the right people to work with
- Why Michael preferred working with “unformed” employees
- How the original deal between MAN and MINT influenced AHL
- What the larger financial community initially thought about AHL
- How AHL brought in investors in those early days
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs
Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group
Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT10: The challenge pension funds face with Risk Mitigation ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 2of2
On this episode I continue my conversation Ryan Abrams, Portfolio Manager at Wisconsin Alumni Research Association, Ela Karahasanoglu, VP at Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, and Carrie Lo, Director of Hedge Strategies at CalSTRS.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- When do you stop adding more managers?
- Ela’s magic range of managers
- Carrie’s approach to choosing managers
- How management fees should be structured
- What advice Carrie would give to other pensions planning to start allocating to risk mitigation strategies
- Why Ela recommends a thorough preparation and vision for risk mitigation strategies
- Ryan’s thoughts on trends during dislocation periods
- What challenges the guests had to overcome as part of their implementation process
- Why CalPERS are leaving hedge funds when CalSTRS are adding them, even when some of the board members are the same
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Ryan Abrams and Wisconsin Alumni Research Association
Learn more about Ela Karahasanoglu and Workplace Safety and Insurance Board
Learn more about Carrie Lo and CalSTRS
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT09: Why & How CalSTERS mitigate Risk ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 1of2
On this episode my very special guests are Ryan Abrams, Portfolio Manager at Wisconsin Alumni Research Association, Ela Karahasanoglu, VP at Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, and Carrie Lo, Director of Hedge Strategies at CalSTRS, for a fun and insightful conversation about how to mitigate the Risk in a Portfolio using Managed Futures.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Carrie diligently prepared her new Risk Mitigation Strategies (RMS)
- How much CalSTRS will initially allocate to the RMS part for their $200bn+ portolio
- How Ryan uses risk mitigation strategies in his organization
- How Ela is slowly restructuring her alternative portfolio
- The risks of risk parity strategies
- Is trend-following really an opportunity cost question?
- How Carrie has worked with the CalSTRS board on implementing this strategy
- Why Ela has focused more on tail-risk strategies
- Carrie’s manager selection process
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Ryan Abrams and Wisconsin Alumni Research Association
Learn more about Ela Karahasanoglu and Workplace Safety and Insurance Board
Learn more about Carrie Lo and CalSTRS
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT08: Two Turtles & their Mentor ft. Richard Dennis, Brian Proctor & Jerry Parker – 2of2
On this episode my guests are Richard Dennis, creator of the Turtle program, Brian Proctor, managing director of EMC Capital Advices, and Jerry Parker, founder and president of Chesapeake Capital, for a rare conversation about the inner workings of the Turtle program, told for the first time by Richard himself.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The good and bad of targeting volatility
- How Jerry and Brian used the rules they learned through the Turtle experience
- Why the Turtle program was just “another piece of risk” Rich took on his book
- Jerry’s experience during and after the program
- Brian’s two biggest takeaways from the Turtle program
- If proper trading can be a real business?
- What Rich would do differently in 2017
- The state of trend following today
- If being a good trader is enough to run a successful business?
- About other passions of the Turtles outside of trend following and trading
- Rich’s secret “career” in baseball
- If Rich has found any counter-trend strategies that work
- Jerry’s views on changing and adapting too much
- What academia thought of trend following 40 years ago
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Richard Dennis and the Turtle program
Learn more about Brian Proctor and EMC Capital Advisors
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT07: The Turtle Reunion ft. Richard Dennis, Brian Proctor & Jerry Parker – 1of2
Today I'm joined by Richard Dennis, creator of the Turtle program, Brian Proctor, managing director of EMC Capital Advices, and Jerry Parker, founder and president of Chesapeake Capital, for a rare conversation about the inner workings of the Turtle program, told for the first time by Richard himself.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Rich’s first introduction to trend following
- Jerry’s early days in the Turtle program
- How Brian ended up as a Turtle
- The TRUTH about where the Turtle name came from
- The surprising way Rich came up with the idea for the Turtle group…NOT what you expect!
- Why Jerry did not answer the first call from Rich when applying for the program
- The preferred qualities of the Turtle recruits
- Why it was hard to predict which of the Turtles would succeed
- Why persistence is important in trend following
- The relevance of the Turtle group in the past and today
- If diversification among markets is always the best practice?
- The right balance of financial futures markets and commodity futures markets
- Why more investors haven’t embraced trend following…yet?
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Richard Dennis and the Turtle program
Learn more about Brian Proctor and EMC Capital Advisors
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT06: The future of hedge funds ft. Chris Solarz, Adam Duncan & Freeman Wood – 2of2
We are back with another great conversation where my guests are Chris Solarz, Managing Director, Global Macro Hedge Fund Strategies at Cliffwater, Adam Duncan, Managing Director at Cambridge Associates as well as Freeman Wood, who is a Partner and Head of North America, at Mercer, for a deep dive into the world of Consultants in Alternative Investments.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- If there are there enough assets to go around
- What made 2015 such a weak year for hedge funds
- Why 2016 was such a strong year for hedge funds
- The future of hedge fund investing
- What Chris thinks hedge fund managers have done poorly
- How Adam looks at fees as a coin toss
- Why Freeman thinks that fees must add value to both parties
- The guest’s biggest takeaways from 2016
- How the rise of the voter is providing opportunities to hedge fund managers
- The coming possibility of an equity correction, and it’s effects
- The question everyone should be asking right now
- Why a client needs a goal and a timeline for their assets
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Chris Solarz and Cliffwater
Learn more about Adam Duncan and Cambridge Associates
Learn more about Freeman Wood and Mercer
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT05: What Consultants look for in a manager ft. Chris Solarz, Adam Duncan & Freeman Wood – 1of2
My guests today are Chris Solarz, Managing Director, Global Macro Hedge Fund Strategies at Cliffwater, Adam Duncan, Managing Director at Cambridge Associates as well as Freeman Wood, who is a Partner and Head of North America, at Mercer, for a fun and insightful conversation into the world of Consultants and their role in Alternative Investments.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How our guests got to where they are today
- What challenges Adam sees institutional investors facing
- The extra information Chris gives his clients
- How the role of the consultant has changed
- Two issues that frustrate consultants, and how our guests solve them
- Freeman’s view of the role of the financial decision makers
- How to bridge the gap between the managers and the investors
- What your theoretical models can’t account for
- Why past hedge fund managers were able to pursue a more “pure” strategy
- The practical implications of having a larger fund
- The pros and cons of smaller and larger managers
- How Chris developed his key business strategies
- What red flags new startups can avoid
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Chris Solarz and Cliffwater
Learn more about Adam Duncan and Cambridge Associates
Learn more about Freeman Wood and Mercer
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT04: What is the right fee structure? ft. Marty Bergin, Grant Jaffarian & Mike Boss – 2of2
On this episode I continue my conversation with Marty Bergin, the owner and President of DUNN Capital Management, Grant Jaffarian, Portfolio Manager of the Advanced Trend program at Crabel Capital Management, and Mike Boss, who is a Director within the Capital Introductions Team at Societe General, where we cover all things trend following and some of the differences to short-term trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How to use your management and incentive fees to compete
- Grants’s competitive strategy for his flat-fee product
- Why a robust risk management system is extremely important
- Who is winning the battle between the low-cost products and the traditional trend following offerings
- If the increased number of investors using trend following is impacting returns?
- How rising interest rates will affect long- and short-term trend followers
- The guest’s biggest takeaways from 2016
- If machine learning is already being used by trend following firms?
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Marty Bergin and DUNN Capital Management
Learn more about Grant Jaffarian and Crabel Capital Management
Learn more about Mike Boss and Societe General
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT03: The challenge with Experience ft. Marty Bergin, Grant Jaffarian & Mike Boss – 1of2
Today I'm joined by Marty Bergin, the owner and President of DUNN Capital Management, Grant Jaffarian, Portfolio Manager of the Advanced Trend program at Crabel Capital Management, and Mike Boss, who is a Director within the Capital Introductions Team at Societe General, for a fun and insightful journey into the world of Trend Following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Key Insights from arguably the best Trend Follower & the best Short-Term CTA
- How the challenges they overcame to get to where they are today
- How trend followers can evolve their strategies to stay ahead
- The reason why some trend followers haven’t changed in decades
- Key insights to how Marty has allowed DUNN to stay ahead
- How Mike & Societe Generale sees the industry changing and it’s new opportunities
- Why the UCITS Directive started benefitting smaller specialized managers
- The challenges with short-term trading
- Why Crabel is strict with its capacity
- The research that increased Crabel’s bottom line
- How to ensure that CTA flagship offerings retain value over low-cost alternatives
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Marty Bergin and DUNN Capital Management
Learn more about Grant Jaffarian and Crabel Capital Management
Learn more about Mike Boss and Societe General
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT02: The biggest challenge for institutions ft. Amy Elefante Bedi, Ernest Jaffarian & Phil Hatzopoulos – 2of2
Today I continue my conversation with Amy Elefante Bedi, Director of Hedged Strategies at Washington University Investment Management Company in St. Louis, Ernest Jaffarian, the CEO of Efficient Capital Management as well Phil Hatzopoulos , who is the Global Head of Buyside Sales at the CME Group.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What the response has been to lower performance of hedge funds in recent years
- How managers have dealt with the challenging performance environment
- What institutional investors are looking to get out of the Managed Futures space
- How Smart Beta is being used
- If its true that you get what you pay for
- The movement towards BIG data
- The concern of investors about the fixed income sector
- What would happen if interest rates starts going up
- What the biggest opportunities are for the Managed Futures industry in 2017
- How regulations could destroy the industry
- The biggest challenge that institutions face before they embrace CTAs
- How to overcome the fear of investing in the Managed Futures space
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Amy Elefante Bedi and
Washington University’s Investment Management Company
Learn more about Ernest Jaffarian and Efficient Capital Management
Learn more about Phillip Hatzopoulos and CME Group
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
RT01: How to find talented managers ft. Amy Elefante Bedi, Ernest Jaffarian & Phil Hatzopoulos – 1of2
On this episode I'm joined by Amy Elefante Bedi, Director of Hedged Strategies at Washington University Investment Management Company in St. Louis, Ernest Jaffarian, the CEO of Efficient Capital Management as well Phil Hatzopoulos , who is the Global Head of Buyside Sales at the CME Group - to explore the world of Alternative Investments and why they are so valuable to investors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Key Insights from industry leaders in Managed Futures
- How they got where they are today
- What Ernest did to change his career to Managed Futures
- The hesitations that endowments have had when investing in the CTA industry
- What is the state of the fund-to-fund model today
- The importance of diversifying your portfolio
- How to find and access talent in the Managed Futures space
- Questions to ask a manager when deciding on your allocations
- The issue of fees and the debate surrounding it
- The performance of CTAs in the last decade
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Amy Elefante Bedi and
Washington University’s Investment Management Company
Learn more about Ernest Jaffarian and Efficient Capital Management
Learn more about Phillip Hatzopoulos and CME Group
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU96: The Simplicity of Trend Following ft. Katy Kaminski, Alex Greyserman & Roberto Osorio – 2of2
Thanks for tuning in to the second part of our roundtable conversation with three of the leading voices in the trend following industry today. In this episode, we discuss how the industry has evolved, what the future looks like, and how to educate investors on the merits of trend following.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How has trend following evolved in the past decade
- The different kinds of diversification and how important they are
- The concept of divergent strategies
- Different ways of generating signals
- Why entries are the least important
- How to figure out what are the most robust parameters to use
- Why you should try to debunk any new trading ideas
- How trend following CTAs perform risk control
- How to educate investors on trend following firms and methods
- How many trend following managers should you invest in
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha
- Return Dispersion, Counterintuitive Correlation (PDF)
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy Kaminski on Linkedin
Follow Alex Greyserman on Linkedin
Follow Roberto Osorio on Linkedin
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU95: Redefining Trend Following ft. Katy Kaminski, Alex Greyserman & Roberto Osorio – 1of2
Thanks for tuning back into our show, we know it has been a while since we’ve published an episode. However, you are in for a real treat: this is the first episode where we have a roundtable of guests, representing some of the most prominent firms in the trend following space. Our guests have a combined 100 years of track record, and we’ll explore it all in this episode.
We discuss the history of trend following, what it takes to practice trend following, and the human biases that effect our trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The history of trend-following
- The phenomenon of momentum
- When the concept of trend following that we know today came about
- Why Katy & Alex gathered data from hundreds of years ago
- Katy talks about their book on Trend Following
- Why markets are not getting more efficient
- Why the edge in Trend Following is “knowing what you don’t know”
- How long it took for Alex to start believing in trend following
- Roberto’s first exposure to trend following
- Why humility is necessary to practice trend following
- The importance of taking the human emotion out of the decision process
- Katy’s voodoo finance and heuristics
- Are all CTA’s trend-followers?
- Alex’s Random Entry System that uses coin flips
- The three decisions that are involved in a trade
- The fact and fiction of how difficult it is to do trend-following
- Why humans suffer from representative bias
- The factor of simplicity when making a trend following system
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha
- Market Wizards
- Tulip mania
- David Ricardo
- Lake Wobegon syndrome
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy Kaminski on Linkedin
Follow Alex Greyserman on Linkedin
Follow Roberto Osorio on Linkedin
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU94: Acknowledging Risk on a Daily Basis ft. Bill Dreiss of Dreiss Research Corporation – 2of2
In our continued conversation with Bill Dreiss, we dive into why he built his model the way that he did, and how he deals with factors like risk, drawdowns, and investor relationships. You’ll discover what he has learned from the drawdowns he has gone through, how the market has changed since 2009, and what the future looks like for Dreiss Research.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How he thinks about succession planning
- What people should be aware of in his long track record as a firm
- What has changed in the markets since 2009
- How markets are more interrelated than they ever have been before
- How he describes what he is trying to achieve for his investors
- Why you shouldn’t be investing if you can’t live through a 50% drawdown
- What the choppiness index is
- Why it is so difficult for people to see the advantages of CTAs and trend following
- How many commodities he trades
- How diversified his trading program is
- What differentiates Dreiss Research from other trend following CTAs
- How he measures volatility
- How he defines risk and manages risk
- Why you can over-manage risk and how to weather the drawdowns
- What he has learned from the drawdowns he has gone through
- How to manage a relationship with clients so that they trust the firm during drawdowns
- The biggest challenges in his long career
- What it takes to be a good trader
- Why the world is too full of quants and people should use their talents in other fields
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- The Misbehavior of Markets
- The Secrets of Professional Turf Betting
- The Gambler
- Thinking, Fast and Slow
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU93: Location Independence with Systematic Trading ft. Bill Dreiss of Dreiss Research Corporation – 1of2
Bill Dreiss has been an early adopter from the very beginning. After going to MIT and Harvard, he wanted to form a business that would allow him to be location independent and allow him to surf, his life passion. Fortunately, systems trading found him.
He bought a computer before individuals owned them, started a systems trading firm before almost any of them existed, and has been in business trading his own model fro more than 25 years. You’ll gain a career’s worth of knowledge in this fantastic episode.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Bill’s firm is so unique
- How he went to Harvard business school and then went to work for a Think Tank in California
- How he developed his first trading system in the 1970s
- How he did systematic trading by hand in the early days, without computers
- The unique system that was the first system he built
- The first company that he started with a few partners in early 1975
- How he used to manage 180 clients before computers
- The first computer he bought before individuals owned computers
- Why he stopped managing outside money for a few years
- What made him setup his current company in 1991
- How he setup his first trading model with Dreiss Research Corporation
- Why he was heavily influenced by Boinot Mandelbrot
- Why trend following is declared dead every few years, but why it is only sleeping
- Why he trades longer term and only updates his system about once a week
- How he first managed to automate his system way before other people were able to do it
- How the environment has changed from very few system traders to almost completely system traders
- What differentiates Bill from a lot of other system traders
- How he deals with risk management
- What drives him in his career and how he has kept it up for so long
- Why he thinks in how much leisure time he can have rather than how much money he could make
- How marketing a firm is very important
- Why surfing is so important to him
- Why being location independent was very important to him in setting up his business
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU92: Clear & Explainable Trend Models ft. Andreas Clenow of ACIES Asset Management – 2of2
In our continued conversation with Andreas Clenow, we discuss the research and work that goes into making his trading model, how he deals with risk and drawdowns, and how he explains his models to potential investors. In this episode, we will dive into how clear and explainable a trading model should be, and what questions you should ask firms before investing in them.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Andreas does his research and what research he looks for in other firms
- Why a track record matters and how it matters
- How trend following has done over the last few years
- How he builds his own trading strategies
- What he does with position sizing and how important it is
- How he allocates risk on his different models
- What he does to measure the environment on trend following
- What he thinks about sector allocation and diversification
- The kinds of risk management that he uses in his model
- Where he uses stop losses and where he doesn’t
- How he talks to investors about drawdowns
- What questions investors should be asking him about his trading model
- How to detect if a manager’s strategy has stopped working
- Why people shouldn’t be scared of asking lots of questions
- What motivates him to work on his job
- About the biggest failures of Andreas’ career
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
- Trend Following with Managed Futures by Kathryn Kaminski
- Listen to my interview with Kathryn Kaminski here and here
- Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci
- Buy Andreas’ books.
- Check out his website FollowingTheTrend.com.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andreas Clenow on Linkedin
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU91: Keeping it Simple in Trend Following ft. Andreas Clenow of ACIES Asset Management
Our guest today is a successful trader, businessman, and author. He is known for his books Following The Trend and Stocks on the Move, and after an impressive career at Reuters finance he moved on to ACIES Asset Management in Switzerland.
In our conversation, we discuss trend following and the need to keep it simple, the mistakes that retail traders make, and how to start a new firm in this day and age.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The many skill sets that Andreas has
- How he wrote the books that he is known for
- Why he has a large degree of flexibility with his firm and the capital they manage
- How he grew up in a small town in Sweden…with lots of cows!
- About the computer company that he started
- How he left the corporate world
- How he started at ACIES
- What Andreas does when he is not working
- The books he has written about systematic trading strategies
- The value of simplicity
- What Andreas thinks about trend following
- The issues with doing trend following on stocks
- How he got the freedom to write a book
- What retail traders will get from his books
- Why managing your own money is a bad trade
- What he thinks about technical analysis and how to define it
- What it takes to start a firm or trading business
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Listen to our episode with Jerry Parker recapping 2014.
- A Definition of ATR (Average True Range).
- Buy Andreas’ books.
- Check out his website FollowingTheTrend.com.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andreas Clenow on Linkedin
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU90: Why Diversification is Key ft. Robert Carver, Author & Trader – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with Robert Carver, we dive into the specifics of his trading strategy, why he doesn’t trade full time, and what he thinks about the trend-following space in general.
You’ll hear his thoughts on drawdowns, research teams, risk, and more. You won’t want to miss his insight and clear explanations of some of finance’s most complicated topics.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The two components of risk, and all about unpredictable risk
- What sets one manager apart from the other
- His view on stop-losses
- How target volatility works for a lot of CTA managers
- How he would put together a research team for a fund manager
- The problem with hiring a lot of people with the same background
- How investors should read the track records of firms
- The concerns and misconceptions about systematized and trend-following strategies
- Why he is so keen on looking at sharp ratio
- The issues with skew but why he keeps an eye on it
- What his own trading system looks like today
- The style of trader that he ended up becoming
- How to find out what to expect when a drawdown happens
- What investors should ask but they never do
- How he got over the failures that he has had in business
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about AHL
- Learn about Sharpe Ratio
- Check out The Predictors book
- Learn more about Eugene Farma
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Linkedin
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU89: Creating a Simple System & Sticking To It ft. Robert Carver, Author & Trader – 1of2
Robert Carver spends most of his book telling you that he is not a good trader. So why did he devote his life and a whole book to the subject?
Because he believes in systematic trading; making a simple trading system and sticking to it.
In this episode, we dive into his new book and explore why simplicity is the key, people think they are better traders than they are, and so much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Robert decided to write his new book, Systematic Trading
- Robert reads the preface to his new book
- He explains one of the biggest investing mistakes of his career
- The book that got him interested in the financial industry
- How he got a job with AHL
- Why he wrote a book with very little math involved so that he spoke to a large audience
- The 3 types of investors that he defines in the book
- How cognitive biases in humans make them bad traders
- Why he spends a lot of his book explaining how bad he is at trading
- Whether trend following and other divergent strategies work or not
- Why sticking to a plan is so important
- How the markets and CTAs will change once the interest rate changes
- The differences between a subjective and an objective system
- Things that people should avoid when creating a trading system
- Why few people have a good handle on overtrading
- Machine learning approaches vs. idea approaches to creating trading programs
- How systematic trading adapts
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about AHL
- Learn about Sharpe Ratio
- Liar’s Poker by Michael Lewis
- Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU88: The Importance of Explaining the Why ft. Andrew Baxter of Cambridge Capital Management – 2of2
In this episode, we dive into the models and processes that Cambridge Capital and Andrew Baxter use to manage risk, research new ideas, and grow their business. We also talk about the importance for managers to explain why they do what they do, rather than just what they do.
Listen in to learn more about the future of the managed futures industry and how to be successful in it.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How his forecast method works
- How he develops his basic models
- How they come up with new ideas for models at Cambridge Capital
- The various short term and long term models that they employ and how they use them
- When they make interventions to the system
- The risk management they use and why they have a risk budget
- Why they are continuously adjusting their risk in the market
- The drawdowns that they expect to see in their program and the ones that they have been through
- Why he thinks CTA firms had significantly higher drawdowns in 2013 then they had ever had before
- How their research cycles work
- How to compare a life track record with a simulation of the current program
- Why we should look at why managers do things more than what they do
- Why raising assets is the biggest challenge his firm faces today
- What it takes to become a great fund manager
- The skill that he would pass onto his children
- The challenges he sees for the CTA space
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds
- The Winner’s Curse
- books by Reinhold Messner
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew Baxter on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU87: An Engineer Using Machine Learning to Trade ft. Andrew Baxter of Cambridge Capital Managment – 1of2
Andrew Baxter worked at British Aerospace as an engineer before joining the investment management world. He still considers himself an engineer.
Listen in to learn how he uses machine learning, why he keeps innovating, and how he started his own firm.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Andrew considers himself an engineer
- How he went from engineer to investment management
- How he started his firm
- His philosophy on the investment management process
- Why he harvests risk premiums
- What he likes to do when he is not working
- How he works with machine learning
- The things they learned from their career history that helped them build Cambridge Capital Management
- Why it is important to stay ahead of the pack and keep innovating
- What they do in-house versus outsourcing
- The culture that he tries to cultivate at his company
- How he talks about track record to his investors
- How he evolved as the managed futures industry changed over the years
- What he does to manage risk
- The objective of his program from a top-down view
- The different markets that his program trades
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds
- The Winner’s Curse
- books by Reinhold Messner
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew Baxter on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU86: Predictions on Crude Oil, Copper, War, Plus More on Cycles ft. David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research – 2of2
In this second part of our conversation, we dive into the specifics of how Charles Nenner and his team make their predictions, and what they predict in certain markets like Crude Oil, Copper, and Natural Gas. We also discuss the cycle of a major war at the beginning of each century, and David’s personal story of why he is just as curious today as the day he started.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How they predict the price, and how the price and cycles work together.
- The fifth category they predict on is economic indicators.
- What is happening when a market is not behaving as the cycle they show indicates.
- What are some of the indicators of a big event like 9/11.
- Where he thinks Natural Gas is going.
- What he thinks about Copper.
- The battle between inflation and deflation and where he stands on those terms.
- About the 100 year war cycle and what he predicts for the next war.
- The cycles of infectious disease.
- Why they don’t have a fund that trades off of their predictions.
- The different types of clients they have.
- Why he does the job that he does.
- Why it is important to listen well.
- Why he thinks that thinking and listening are a lost art.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.
- David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Visit the Website: www.CharlesNenner.com
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU85: The Cycles of Financial Markets ft. David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research – 1of2
This episode has a unique and interesting guest, the kind we rarely have on this show. David Gurwitz does not trade in the financial markets, but provides predictions and research to many firms, including some we have interviewed. He looks at the cycles in financial markets. Keep an open mind during this episode and see what you can learn about Charles Nenner’s research methods, the start of their research business, and what predictions they have been correct on and which ones they missed.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How David explains what he does, and how this interview is different.
- How he played semi-professional basketball in Spain before going into accounting.
- How he met Charles Nenner.
- How their business works and how cycles works.
- How Charles has predicted crude oil drop in 2014.
- What they look at when making their predictions.
- How they do media appearances and how media has changed.
- How they go about doing their research.
- Why sunspots might affect the stock market shifts.
- How different cultures are more open to the idea of cycles and their effect on the financial sector.
- The predictions they’ve made in recent years on the Yen, Gold, and the Euro.
- Why looking back at history can show interesting lessons.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.
- David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.
- Listen to past episodes with a predictions expert Mahendra Sharma here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Visit the Website: www.CharlesNenner.com
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU84: Being Authentic & Transparent with Your Investors ft. Natasha Reeve-Gray of Altis Partners – 2of2
In this second part of our conversation, Natasha dives into the details of the trading model and portfolio of Altis Partners, her firm. We discuss how they approach risk management, and how they’ve dealt with drawdowns over the years. She also gives her take on the future of the managed futures industry, what advice she would give to emerging firm managers, and other lessons she has learned along the way.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About how Natasha and her team constructs their portfolio.
- How their models are adaptive.
- What their integrated risk approach does and how it works.
- What she thinks the capacity is of the strategy that her firm has.
- How she defines risk.
- How correlations play a part in their portfolio.
- Which sectors of the market do well with their model.
- How she sets the expectations for what kinds of drawdowns they might have.
- How to help investors with the emotional rollercoaster of drawdowns.
- How the firm goes about doing research.
- How to detect if a certain model stops working.
- What lessons they have learned from all their years in business.
- How success changes your mindset.
- Why it’s good to have people to look up to.
- Her biggest challenge facing her firm today.
- What investors are not asking when at due diligence meetings with her firm.
- Why a long term relationship with a client is important.
- What advice she would give to emerging managers today.
- Where she thinks the managed futures industry is going as a whole.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Natasha recommends reading The Hard Thing About Hard Things, a book about building a business and entrepreneurship.
- She also recommends Fortune’s Formula, by William Poundstone.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Natasha Reeve-Gray on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU83: Starting a Quant Firm from Scratch ft. Natasha Reeve-Gray of Altis Partners – 1of2
Our next guest left a well known trading firm in London to start a quantitative trading firm with 3 other partners. There’s a lot to be learned from her insights on starting a business, building a culture, and making it through the obstacles along the way. Listen in for our discussions on the startup phase and the current trading model.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Natasha and her founding partners all worked at the same firm before breaking out on their own.
- About her childhood growing up as an only child and what got her interested in finance.
- How she got her first job in finance.
- When she got hired by QCM.
- How she met her founding partners.
- How and why Natasha and her founding partners broke off from QCM.
- How she set up her new firm with her partners.
- How they each had a different area of the business that they focused on.
- The big obstacles of the early days and knowing which people to talk to.
- What the biggest learning curve was in terms of hiring the right people.
- Why they built a 24-month buffer for their business that would let them stay in business if things went down.
- Why the’ve gone to the cloud for their business.
- The details of their core team.
- What would require them to expand the team.
- How Natasha explains their track record to investors and potential client.
- About how they reacted to the period of 2011-2013.
- The details of their trading program and what their philosophy is behind the program.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about the film Trading Places, that inspired Natasha to pursue futures trading.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Natasha Reeve-Gray on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU82: Simplicity vs. Complexity in Trading Models ft. Oliver Steinki of Evolutiqz – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with the cofounder of Evolutiq, we dive into the firm’s trading strategy, how they manage risk, and what kinds of investors they seek. He also discusses tips for budding entrepreneurs and firm managers, and how he deals with explaining the complexity of his trading models.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The details of Oliver’s portfolio.
- What types of markets have more success for their models.
- Their unique allocation process.
- How to explain these scientific terms to potential investors.
- The question of simplicity vs. complexity.
- How they managed intra-day forecasting.
- How he manages risk.
- The way that market correlations play into the portfolio.
- Oliver’s thoughts on drawdowns and the worst ones that he is expecting.
- How do you know when a model has stopped working.
- What Oliver’s experience has been as the world has become more divergent.
- What keeps him up at night.
- What he is looking at in his research for the firm right now.
- How models can start decaying.
- Who he is targeting for his firm.
- How he manages the cash portion of his accounts.
- How setting up a company outside the big financial center affects his business.
- What questions investors should be asking him during due diligence meetings.
- The advice he would give to aspiring managers.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Oliver recommends reading The Mathematics of Money Management.
- He also recommends Algorithmic Trading.
- Learn more about Harry Markowitz, mentioned in this episode.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Oliver Steinki on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU81: How A Serial Entrepreneur Built an Algorithmic Trading Firm ft. Oliver Steinki of Evolutiq – 1of2
Our next guest has started and invested in many companies, and is from an entrepreneurial background. First and foremost, he is concerned with running a business, but he also knew he wanted to be a portfolio manager from an early age. Hear the fascinating story of Oliver Steinki on this episode, as we dive into his new firm and the details behind his models and strategy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The entrepreneurial background that Oliver comes from.
- How he studied in Germany, Madrid, and Manchester.
- About his childhood and when he started to realize he was interested in mathematics and finance.
- What he likes doing when he is not managing his own firm.
- What algorithmic trading is all about.
- How the scientific trading model generates signals.
- What the trade implementation phase entails and how it works.
- What it is that Oliver is trying to deliver to his investors.
- About the other companies he started before his current firm, and all the different industries those companies are in.
- Why he is a business man first and a trader second.
- Who is on his team and the roles they fill.
- Why the early phase of his business is important and what you can learn from how Oliver tackles this phase.
- How he would scale his current business model.
- How he creates a culture and keeps a partnership with his cofounders.
- His track record so far.
- The details of how his strategy is created.
- What a levy-process model is.
- How many models he is testing and trading and how different they are.
- Why they need to be right 54% of the time with their models.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Read about the French mathematician that Oliver discusses, Paul Lévy.
- Niels mentions his earlier conversations with Dave Sanderson, which you can listen to here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Oliver Steinki on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU80: Managing Your Emotional Capital ft. Mike Coleman of RCMA Asset Managementz – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with Mike Coleman, we explore the different commodity markets and how RCMA trades them, and look back at the drawdowns that Mike has gone through and what he has learned from them. We discuss risk, idea generation, and what it takes to build a successful firm.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How correlation plays an important role in what Mike does.
- What he thinks of the current oil market and the outlook for oil.
- How they use relative value trading and what that is.
- What process they have for getting an idea into an actual position.
- How they have a different relationship between trader and analyst than other firms do.
- How he defines risk and how he looks at risk management.
- What he has learned from the drawdowns he has gone through.
- How to get the investor’s confidence in the manager to a place where they don’t drop out at the worst time.
- Why regulatory risk is something that keeps him up at night.
- How his strategy has changed over time.
- If it’s possible to backtest any part of his strategy.
- What the typical investor in his firm looks like.
- What location means for a business like Mike’s.
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Coleman on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU79: The Romance of Trading Commodities ft. Mike Coleman of RCMA Asset Management – 1of2
Our next guest lives in Singapore, where he founded a firm that trades in the commodity markets. In this episode, we trace his upbringing in the UK and his first job at Cargill to the start of his firm. We discuss the growth and downsizing periods he has gone through and how he builds a successful business.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Where Mike grew up and how his upbringing shaped his career.
- How he was interested in travel from an early age, and found out about commodity trading in his final year of university.
- How he started out as a commodity merchant with Cargill.
- How he fell into rubber trading which led him to Singapore in 1984.
- About the beginnings of RCMA.
- How the commodity markets have changed over the years, and what kinds of companies are still working with commodity trading.
- The most important things he learned at Cargill that helped in the management of his own firm.
- What he learned before computers become ubiquitous on trading desks.
- What Mike likes to do in his spare time.
- How to make sure you are set up for success when you start a business or firm.
- How you get through the hard times of your business as an entrepreneur.
- What he does to organize his firm to make it run in the best way possible.
- How they’ve dealt with a boom and bust phase in their business, including personnel.
- The way that he has built the culture in his business.
- How investors should read a track record from a discretionary trader.
- What patterns he looks for when trading for commodities.
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Coleman on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU78: If You Believe In Your Models, Never Deviate From Them ft. Kim Bang of Prolific Capital Markets – 2of2
In our second part of this conversation, we dive into the details of the program that Kim runs. We discuss why it’s important to stick with your models, even in times of severe drawdowns, and how Kim views risk. He also talks about the books and people that have inspired him in his career.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The details behind the program Kim runs.
- What he feels about larger drawdowns.
- What kind of indicators goes into the models that he uses.
- Why he uses a non-cyclical approach to creating trading models.
- How he looks at volatility.
- What kind of mean reversion strategies he uses.
- How he responded to the Swiss Franc move.
- How Kim quantifies risk.
- How do you prepare for a drawdown when you haven’t gone through a significant one?
- How his firm comes up with new ideas and goes about doing research.
- The positives and challenges with working as a father and son team in the same firm.
- How he knows when a model has stopped working.
- What he is doing to launch his first fund.
- What questions investors should be asking in due diligence conversations with him.
- What books have impacted Kim’s career.
- How he sees the firm in the future.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Books that have influenced Kim include Market Wizards, The Quants, and books by Ralph Vince.
Learn more about people who have inspired Kim, including Roy Niederhoffer, Welles Wilder, and John Henry.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kim Bang on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU77: Competing in the Long Tail of Managed Futures ft. Kim Bang of Prolific Capital Markets – 1of2
Kim Bang grew up with his father’s shipping industry in Denmark, and discovered a fascination of the managed futures industry. He went on to work for companies such as Bloomberg and AIG, before founding his current firm with his son. Listen to his story and find out what makes a firm that can compete in the managed futures industry.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Kim grew up in Denmark with his dad in the shipping business.
- How he got into futures markets through his dad’s business.
- Kim’s education in the U.S. and his first job on Wall Street.
- How he left AIG to start his own business.
- His time at Bloomberg building and running their TradeBook system.
- About Kim’s son’s research club at New York University.
- How he decided what to do next after his company was sold.
- How he launched Prolific Capital Markets in 2013.
- What he does when he’s not working.
- How he built his business.
- The funds needed to start his business and how institutional clients should be sought after.
- What he can do himself and what he has outsourced.
- How he builds a strong culture in his organization.
- What his track record means to his potential investors.
- What Kim is trying to achieve with the program itself.
- What kind of environments are good for his program.
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kim Bang on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU76: Why He Still Trades His Own Money ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with Barnaby Cardwell, we dive into the details of his program, how he built his company, and what he thinks it takes to be a good manager of a trading firm.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What indicators Barnaby considers more reliable.
- How he gets into a trade.
- How important is the position sizing?
- How much AUM his model can handle.
- Risk management: how he defines risk and what he does to mitigate it.
- What he has learned from drawdowns.
- What keeps Barnaby awake at night.
- Trading spread between markets and the research his firm is doing into that space.
- Why he focuses on the managed-account route.
- How he stands out from the crowd to attract investors.
- About “key-man” risk.
- What potential investors don’t ask in their due diligence questions.
- What it takes to be a great trader.
- What books have inspired him in trading and life.
- What his biggest failure is so far.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
People that have inspired Barnaby include James Harris Simons, QIM, and the book Trading in the Zone.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Barnaby Cardwell on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU75: Competing in the Short Term Space ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 1of2
Our next guest is a fund manager in the short-term space, and thus is distinct from many of the guests on this podcast. He discusses how he got into the financial markets from a young age, and why he decided to trade in the short term space in order to separate himself from the competition. Listen in for details into his program and how he started his hedge fund.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Barnaby grew up and what got him interested in the financial markets.
- Why he left being a broker and went in to a more systematic approach.
- How he met his future business partner.
- How they started his fund in late 2008.
- What it was about the Market Wizards books that captured his imagination.
- What he does to compete outside of trading.
- His first mentor and what he taught Barnaby.
- Why he decided to go short term.
- How automation has changed his industry.
- How he gets through the hard times in the market.
- An overview of the program that his company runs.
- How he set up his company and attracted investors.
- The challenges that let to auto-execution of trades.
- How he builds a strong culture in an organization.
- How he wants people to look at his track record.
- Why he uses time-based stops.
- The details of the short term models he uses.
- How he creates a strategy.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Learn more about Market Wizards and Jack Schwager.
Check out information on Toby Crabel and his book.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Barnaby Cardwell on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU74: 2015 Predictions for Currencies, Gold, Oil and More ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 2of2
In this second episode with Mahendra, he dives into his predictions for 2015 and the next few years, detailing his thoughts on markets from currencies, gold and silver to oil and real estate markets. He discusses how he sees key geo-political events resolving or worsening in the years to come. You may gain advice and insight that will change how you trade and what you trade in the financial markets!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The drastic rise in volatility Mahendra is expecting for this year and next.
- What he thinks about where Oil is going to go.
- What happens when his predictions come true very quickly.
- His predictions and success with the gold market and the 52-year era for gold.
- What he thinks about Copper and Silver.
- What he sees for the major currencies going forward.
- How Mahendra sees the future of the European Union and their currency.
- What he predicts that does not pertain to the financial markets.
- Why he stopped predicting events that were not in the financial market.
- What he thinks about the real estate markets for the coming years.
- The problems he sees coming from 2017 onwards.
- What he predicts for the banking stocks in 2015.
- How nature influences humans.
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mahendra Sharma on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU73: He sees Dow Jones going to 32,000 ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 1of2
Welcome to an episode of Top Trader’s Unplugged unlike any other. We take a break from interviews with hedge fund managers and invite you into the fascinating world of financial astrology. Mahendra Sharma dedicates his astrology and predictions work exclusively on the financial markets, and has had an astonishing accuracy of predicting market events. Learn about his story, including his upbringing without electricity in his home, on this episode.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Mahendra is completely different than any of the other guests that have been on the podcast.
- How he got into predicting the financial markets.
- The story of his astrologer grandfather who lost his eyesight.
- How he came out with his first predictions at the age of 20.
- How he made a fortune in technology stocks based on his own predictions.
- The way he wrote his first book that came out in South Africa.
- How he grew up in a home without electricity.
- Why he looks at planetary movement, and human behavior patterns.
- Why he predicts that the DOW will go to 32,000.
- Why he believe in a 30 year cycle.
- What he predicts for interest rates in the next few years.
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mahendra Sharma on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU72: Adding Value to Your System ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 2of2
In the second part of our talk with Mike Shell, we delve into the specifics of his program and why most of his clients have 100% of their investments with his firm. He discusses backtesting, risk management, and the differences between purely systematic systems and systems with a discretionary element. Listen in for an inside look at this fascinating firm.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How people should look at Mike’s 10 year track record and how his models have evolved over that time.
- How much of the strategy is machine run and how much is human run.
- What he does when he backtest a system.
- How he started out as a chartist in the 1990s.
- What is it that he can’t systematize.
- The difference between a trader that is purely systematic and one that has a discretionary element, however small.
- How his investors use his program.
- What his approach to risk management is and how it plays out with his program.
- Why he doesn’t take on much short exposure.
- What’s the biggest challenge with his business right now.
- How to expand the customer base to investment advisors.
- What books Mike would recommend.
- What he’d do differently if he had to start all over today.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode
- Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy
- Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
- Trend Following by Michael Covel
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Shell on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU71: Why You Don’t Want Symmetry in Investing ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 1of2
Most trend following firms have clients that invest somewhere between 2 and 20% of their portfolio with that firm, but Mike Shell’s firm is different. His strategy is tailored to a specific customer, and almost all of his clients have their entire investment portfolios with his firm. We dive into the specifics of Shell Capital Management in this episode, and how Mike grew up in the southern United States with a military background to become the owner of his own firm.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The ways that Mike’s firm is different from other firms.
- His upbringing in Tennessee.
- How he started Shell Capital in 2004.
- The books that influenced him in his trend following education.
- What his experience was in the brokerage world.
- Why he left the brokerage world and what gave him the courage to become an entrepreneur.
- His experience in the military and law enforcement.
- What he does when he’s not trading.
- Why symmetry is the last thing he wants when it comes to investing.
- How his asymmetry term came about.
- Why he relishes uncertainty.
- How he structures his firm to compete in his industry.
- How the firm plans to grow and what they outsource.
- The way that people should interpret his track record.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Shell on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU70: Market Intervention & The Effect on Trend Following ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group
In this year-end review, Marc Malek explains why intervention in the markets affects trend following, but also why trend following strategies are not long volatility strategies. He discusses 2014 from the point of view of his firm, how his program did, and why he is excited about 2015.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How 2014 treated Conquest Capital.
- How volatility shows itself in a market like oil.
- What strategies performed well and what markets contributed to their success.
- How he prepares himself for extreme volatility and how he dealt with the Swiss Franc move.
- What intervention does to the markets.
- How his firm would plan for our react to a big market change such as the break up of the Euro overnight.
- Why people use correlation in the wrong way.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Marc Malek on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Marc Malek on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU69: Staying Agnostic in Your Allocation ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital
This year in review covers how Aspect Capital came out of 2014 with their best year ever as a company, and what they learned from the year. Martin Lueck discusses the events that made 2014 a roller coaster ride, as well as the importance of always staying agnostic in your allocation to different sectors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why 2014 was a roller coaster ride for Aspect Capital.
- How 2014 was the best year ever on record for Martin’s firm.
- Why CTAs spend most of the time being in a certain level of drawdown and how they have to be psychologically prepared for that.
- What markets didn’t perform for his firm.
- How Martin reacted to the Swiss Franc move that happened recently.
- How conversations with investors changed over the year.
- Why educating investors is important.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Hear more of Martin Lueck in these 2 hour-long conversations with him on our podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Aspect Capital on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU68: Keep The Long Term View in Mind When Investing ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management
On our next year-in-review, Mike Dever talks about how 2014 evolved for his firm and what they learned from the year. He discusses the changes they made to their program as well as the recent Swiss Franc move and what they learned from that. He also talks about why investors need to keep the long term view in mind when investing, and not re-evaluate the program every time the profits take a dip.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What Mike’s firm does that blends together different strategies in order to diversify a portfolio.
- How 2014 was for his firm.
- Why they had a great first quarter to 2014 when most CTAs did not.
- How the Interest Rate sector and Agriculture sector did well for the program.
- Why he saw the Swiss Franc move coming.
- How they are in a continual process of learning and subsequently improving their program.
- Convergent vs. Divergent environments and what Mike is looking forward to.
- How to mitigate a big inflow of investment followed by immediate outflow.
- The book that Mike wrote and if the Myths still hold true today.
- Why people think about the long term view when they invest, and think about the day-to-day view when they take their money out.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Mike Dever on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Dever on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU67: Institutional Investors and CTAs: A Look Forward ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management
Aref Karim has been on the institutional investing side and the fund manager side for many years, so he has some great insights into how each group thinks and ways they can understand each other better. In this episode, Aref reviews 2014 from the perspective of QCM and discusses the research upgrades that the firm started to their program, and how they dealt with the events of the year, including the recent Swiss Franc move.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About the two programs that his firm trades.
- How 2014 went for Aref and his firm.
- About the upgrades that the firm started in late 2013.
- Where their largest gains came from in 2014.
- The opportunities that no one predicted in 2014.
- How they dealt with the Swiss Franc move in early 2015.
- How institutional investors are looking at the managed futures space as we enter 2015.
- What 2015 looks like for his firm.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Aref Karim on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Aref Karim on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU66: Trade Innovation for the future ft. Luc van Hof of Capital Hedge
In this year-end review, Luc van Hof discusses what he learned from 2014 and how his firm innovated to create better gains for customers in 2015. He also talks about the Swiss Franc and why he was not trading it when the major move happened in 2015.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The two programs that his firm trades.
- What kind of risk both of his programs take on.
- What 2014 taught Luc.
- What he learned from the Swiss Franc move.
- Why they didn’t trade the Swiss Franc…on the day of the big move.
- Why he wishes they could have taken a holiday for 6 months after the end of June.
- The advantage of trading frequently.
- The new innovation that his firm started this year.
- His thoughts on volatility.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
You can listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Luc van Hof on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Luc Van Hof on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU65: Trend Following Offers Diversification & Risk Mitigation ft. Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital
Jerry Parker takes us inside 2014 for his firm, and how his models reacted to the Swiss Franc move in January of 2015. He looks at the year and makes a case for trend following as an asset class, as well as highlights what we can learn from a year like 2014.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the year ended up for Jerry’s firm.
- The date when his system started getting short Crude Oil.
- What they could have done better in 2014.
- How he dealt with the Swiss Franc move in January 2015 and how many ATR he made and lost on 2 different CHF positions.
- The minor changes they’ve made to increase diversification of their trading systems.
- What he wishes for 2015.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Jerry on this podcast here and here.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU64: The Trader-less Hedge Fund ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management
In this year-end-review, we take a look at how 2014 might be seen many years into the future. Is this when “trader-less” systematic trading caught on? We take you into the workings of a 1-year-old trading technology company, how they succeeded, and where they are going in the future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- It was their first year of trading under the public eye.
- How consistent the statistics were the entire year.
- How the backtest matched up with live data in 2014.
- What led to their profits and where they lost money.
- Why it’s hard to draw conclusions that tie trades back to world events.
- How they made a lot of money in the first half of the year when other trend followers were having a difficult time.
- About their one-year birthday party.
- The improvements they made during the year.
- How 2015 will see a “refined” interest in trend following CTAs.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Dave on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU63: Every Assumption Should Be Questioned ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners
In this year-end-review, we discuss the year for CTAs and short term traders, as well as the recent collapse of the Euro/Swiss Franc peg and how that affected the models of Quest Partners. Nigol discusses his goals and thoughts for 2015 and reflects on a 2014 that saw his firm start two new strategies and take in new investment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Quest Partners did in 2014.
- Why fixed income was the highest contributor to his gains during the year.
- What models did well in 2014.
- What the Euro/Swiss Franc collapse can teach us about risk management.
- How do we prepare for the unthinkable?
- The details of how his models reacted to the Swiss Franc surge.
- What the highlights of 2014 were for Nigol.
- About the two hedge strategies that they started in 2014.
- How investors should insure they don’t repeat 2011 and 2012.
- How the “Black Box” of CTAs is not as mysterious as it used to be.
- What focus he is taking in 2015.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long conversations with Nigol on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nigol Koulajian on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU62: Why Huge Market Shifts Are Great Reminders ft. Scot Billington of Covenant Capital Management
In this Year End Review, we discuss the major events and unexpected market trends in 2014 as well as the major Swiss Franc move at the start of 2015. Scot Billington discusses his firm’s performance what they learned from their losses and gains, and how they evolved their models. He also talks about why they were able to keep losses low in 2014.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- An overview of what happened in 2014 and where they made money.
- Which factors contributed to profits in 2014 and which factors were the laggards.
- Dissecting the market effect of sliding oil prices in 2nd half of 2014 and the “un-pegging” of the Swiss Franc to the Euro.
- Evolving perspectives on risk management in response to events of 2014.
- Deconstructing the Optimal Program and how to mitigate risk in higher leverage environments.
- Actions taken to keep a typical program or an Optimal Program from going to zero.
- Changes in client perspectives of a CTA strategy no one predicted would do so well a year ago.
- What Scot Billington would wish for in 2015.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long episodes of Scot on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Scot Billington on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU61: CTAs as Portfolio Diversifiers ft Peter Kambolin of Systematic Alpha Management
Peter Kambolin comes from the short term CTA space, and thus has a different perspective than some of our previous guests for our Year in Review theme this month. He discusses how the events in Crimea and Russia shaped markets, how divergence played a role, and how his firm made small changes to models and even added a new product line in 2014.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the year went for Peter and his two different strategies that his firm trades.
- Why it was a challenging year for mean-reversion type strategies.
- What markets did well in his portfolio.
- What he learned from 2014 and what he would do differently.
- The minor adjustment they made to the model in October.
- How they adjusted or reacted to world events in 2014.
- Why they don’t trade certain markets because most trades are not made by humans.
- What would divergence do for his trading models.
- How they improved their backtesting in 2014.
- How to avoid an inflow of capital that will only leave a year or two later.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Peter on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Peter Kambolin on LinkedIn.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU60: Understanding The Investor’s Perspective ft. Anders Lindell of IPM
How do clients understand a trading strategy so that they stick by the firm in hard times? How do investors make sense of when things go well for the CTA industry. We dive into these questions and more on this next episode, a year-in-review from Anders Lindell of IPM.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why 2014 was a model-proving year for IPM.
- How relative bond trading worked so well for his firm.
- How the world events of 2014 affect how much risk people take on in general.
- Why his models got the Russian Ruble wrong.
- Anders’ new role within IPM that was a highlight for him during last year.
- How conversations with investors changed over the year.
- How Anders thinks about divergence in context with the market’s past history.
- How he makes sure that clients know what they are buying into.
- Why he wants a normalization from the central banks.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long conversations with Anders on this podcast here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Anders Lindell on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU59: The Return of Volatility ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital
Bastian Bolesta reviews 2014 and details the ups and downs of the year for his firm and the managed futures industry as a whole. In this episode, he discusses the start to the year that he wants to forget, the return of seemingly normal volatility, and the profitable 4th quarter.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the first half of 2014 was a continuation of 2013 for Deep Field Capital.
- How the “fellows” in their trading program evolved during the year.
- What markets contributed to their growth.
- What markets they lost in during 2014.
- The automated system they use to choose what markets they trade.
- How the markets started to behave in a more “normal” way in the second part of 2014.
- What his highlight was for the year.
- Why to be careful of accepting assets that are chasing past performance.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
For more of Bastian, listen to 2 hour-long episodes with him here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Bastian Bolesta on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU58: Having the Discipline to Stay The Course ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management
Our next Year-in-Review conversation comes from a manager who considers 2014 to have been a disappointing year for his firm. As a trend follower in the currency markets, Chris has unique insights into what shaped 2014 and how the next couple of years look for his industry. He also shares the importance of having discipline and sticking to your systematic models, which builds investor confidence.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why the year was a disappointment for Insch Capital.
- As a currency trader, how he differs from firms that trade different markets.
- How the carry trade has all but disappeared.
- How he reacted to world events in his business.
- Why he is very proud that Insch stayed the course over 2014.
- What he thinks of the emerging currencies.
- How his investors felt about 2014.
- Why he is hopeful for more divergence in the years to come.
- How Chris will try and avoid a repeat of the 2008-2009 inflow of capital to the industry.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long conversations with Chris Cruden on Top Traders Unplugged here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Chris Cruden on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU57: Why The Market Environment Looks Exciting For CTAs ft. Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors
Our next year-in-review is from a recent guest who discusses the roller coaster feel to 2014, and why it was a good year for the CTA industry. He talks about what his firm learned from 2014 and why he is very excited about this year.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The ups and downs of 2014 from Tim’s perspective.
- What markets contributed most for his firm during the year.
- What markets he wished he did better in for 2014 and what he learned from those market shifts.
- The kinds of strategies they trade and what stood out as working well.
- What big worlds events are visualized in the markets and how they affect the strategies.
- How Auspice grew in 2014 and what were the drivers of that growth.
- What changed in their research process in 2014.
- Why Tim is very excited about the market environment in 2015.
- Why he wants to make sure investors sign up with his firm for the right reasons, not just chasing returns.
- What caused 2014 to be the biggest client acquisition year ever for Auspice Capital.
- What Auspice has planned for 2015.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 other hour-long episodes with Tim Pickering here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Tim Pickering on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU56: How to Educate Your Clients on Managed Futures ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital
In this 2014 year-in-review, Karsten Shroeder looks at the CTA industry and give some advice on how to look at 2014 with a rational and objective eye. He also has insights into how 2015 will be for the CTA industry and how to educate more clients to the advantages of managed futures.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the year evolved for Amplitude and it’s strategies.
- How the CTA industry did in 2014 in Karsten’s opinion.
- What models did well last year.
- How hard it is to shape models and make guesses based on world events that affect the markets.
- What Karsten learned from 2014.
- How they have increased their research team.
- Why his firm welcomes divergence in the markets.
- Why educating clients is very important.
- What diversification can do for clients in their portfolios.
- Why not to use 2014 as a reference point and say that this markets new returns for CTAs.
- What Karsten wishes for 2015.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
You can listen to 2 hour-long podcasts with Karsten here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU55: Talking the Pulse on Long-Term Trend Following ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital
For January 2015, we will be revisiting with previous guests on the show to find out how their businesses grew and changed in 2014, and what the year was like overall for their industries.
In our first Year-In-Review episode, Jason Gerlach, the first-ever guest of Top Traders Unplugged, looks at 2014 from a long-term trend following perspective.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why 2014 was a great year for Sunrise Capital.
- What markets were responsible for much of their performance in 2014.
- The most challenging markets for Sunrise Capital last year.
- About their longer-term trend following strategies.
- How world events shaped market changes in 2014.
- About the oil collapse of 2014.
- How volatility returned to markets last year.
- How long-term trend following is getting more attention than before.
- How to avoid 2015 becoming like 2009 for this industry.
- If & When to turn down clients.
- How divergence is the one word that may summarize the next few years.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Jason and Niels here and here.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on LinkedIn.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU54: What it Takes to Be an Entrepreneur ft. Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors – 2of2
In the second part of our talk with Tim Pickering, we dive into the details of his firm and the challenges that he has to overcome as a business owner and entrepreneur. Tim has some valuable life lessons for managers who are just getting started. He also dives into the different ways investors should carry out their due diligence and why he wanted to become a manager in the first place.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The details of Auspice’s programs and what makes them different from other managers.
- What discretionary traders are good at and how Tim captures lessons from them in a systematic model.
- How he implements the system in practice.
- How Tim measures risk.
- How he copes with being in a drawdown.
- What he has learned from the drawdowns that Auspice has been through.
- What keeps him up at night.
- What questions he brainstorms with his research team currently.
- How to detect if a model is deteriorating.
- How meaningful are back tests?
- About the CTA value-added index that Auspice developed.
- The difference in investing through a fund, an EFT, or other options.
- What investors should be asking when they go through their due diligence with Auspice Capital.
- Why he became an entrepreneur.
- The books Tim would recommend for traders and managers.
- What skill he would pass on to his children if he could choose only one.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Barclay CTA Index
- Books by Jack Schwager.
- Simon Sinek’s Start with Why.
- How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie.
- The Prize by Daniel Yergin.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Tim Pickering on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU53: Trend Following vs. Trend Capturing ft. Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors – 1of2
What is the difference between simply following a trend and capturing it? Why is growth not consistent and gradual and why do we want it to be?
Learn answers to these questions and more in this week’s episodes. Niels chats with the founder of a seasoned trend-follower in Canada, who knew he wanted to go into the financial markets since his university days. His story of working for large investment banks to starting his own firm will inspire current managers and hopeful managers alike.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Tim tries to get away from being labelled as one thing or another.
- About growing up on a farm in Canada.
- How he knew he wanted to be a trader.
- How his experience in the energy markets affected the way he ran his business when he started it.
- Why discipline is so important for the kind of manager that Tim is.
- Why he has stuck with the theme of trading commodities.
- What Tim does when he is not running Auspice.
- The difference between following a trend and capturing a trend.
- How growth is not slow and steady.
- An overview of the products that Auspice runs.
- Why they launched a beta product after launching their flagship product.
- The history of how Tim grew Auspice with his business partner.
- How he chose to structure his business.
- How a small team can deliver the same value as a larger manager.
- What people should notice when looking at the track record of Auspice.
- What the Diversified Program does.
- How many markets he actually trades.
- Why position resizing is important.
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Tim Pickering on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU52: Do Amazing Things Just By Showing Up ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 2of2
Rob Hartman knows that showing up is half the battle when it comes to work in any industry. But his viewpoint as a solo fund manager give us deep insight into the inner-workings of a firm and how it deals with drawdowns, track record, and investors’ questions. In Part 2 of our conversation with Rob, we dive into his models and programs and how each of them works. We also learn about Rob’s background that helps round out this picture of a successful manager.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Hannah Montana has some life lessons to teach.
- Rob’s track record and how to read it.
- What happened when he changed his strategy.
- The details of the programs he runs.
- How Vanguard, his flagship product, works.
- How he manages his momentum trades, or trend following trades.
- Why his thoughts on position sizing have evolved over time.
- How he conducts his research and why he doesn’t do any discretionary trading on his models.
- The risk that he focuses on as a smaller manager and how he manages that risk.
- How he deals with questions about drawdowns from investors.
- How Rob copes emotionally when he experiences a drawdown.
- What his research process is without a research team.
- What is the optimal number of rules for Rob’s models to have.
- What questions investors are missing in their due diligence.
- Books he would recommend for would-be managers.
- The advice he gives to his kids and the lessons he wants to pass on.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Van Tharp – Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom
- Rishi Narang – Inside the Black Box: A Simple Guide to Quantitative and High Frequency Trading
Rob also mentions getting inspiration from Kathryn Kaminski, who was our guest on Episode 41 and Episode 42.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob Hartman on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU51: Planning for Failure, Not Planning to Fail ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 1of2
In starting any business, you run into unexpected roadblocks and challenges, and you learn something from each mistake. Our next guest is the founder of a trading firm who has grown his business twice and learned how to overcome the barriers in his way. We can learn a lot from someone who is ready for the unexpected whether it is good or bad.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About his childhood in Upstate New York and Pennsylvania.
- Rob’s interest in music and sports.
- How his early Rock and Roll career faired and how he went into the financial industry.
- How he got hired at IBM.
- His years at IBM and the lessons it taught him.
- How his fascination for trading started after he began a consulting business.
- The tipping point: when he went full-in to the trading business.
- How he learned about different strategies and tested them.
- When he came upon trend following and what made him stick with it.
- What kind of trend following he started with.
- How a drawdown taught him he needed to differentiate himself from other managers.
- The lessons that his first expansion stage taught him.
- The big event that happened after 2010 that changed everything.
- About MF Global and the meltdown of that firm.
- An overview of the programs that his firm runs.
- How he manages investor expectations with a small team.
- How he outsources operational roles in order to cut costs and remain a one-man shop.
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob Hartman on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU50: Why Optimism is Important ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 2of2
Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Dave Sanderson. In this episode we explore his trading program in detail, from the markets the firm trades to how they describe their program to investors. We also explore the challenges that he goes through as a business leader, dealing with drawdowns, and why optimism is so important to Dave.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Dave believes that QIM is a unique firm in a reasonably similar category as KFL Capital Management.
- How to describe Krystal to investors and why it can be a challenge.
- About the length of time it takes for Krystal to compute the data and make a decision.Why the breakthroughs in computational power are supporting KFL Capital Management to make their systems faster each year.
- The markets KFL trades.
- Expected drawdown and volatility Krystal expects.
- How Dave expects to deal with drawdown environments.
- Research cycles within KFL Capital Management and the potential for a second Krystal.
- About the 99.3% match rate between their live trading and back testing results.
- The biggest challenge for KFL Capital Management in today’s market.
- About the challenge of attracting AUM in the modern financial landscape.
- Asymmetry of agency and understanding how to focus on who you’re talking to.
- Regarding the difficulties of explaining machine learning and big data ideas.
- Commonalities in the highest level due diligence explorers.
- Entrepreneurial perspective, great books and an open minded perspective on failures.
- Why optimism is such a powerful force in today’s world.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- The Medallion Fund – Jim Simon’s Fund.
- The Innovators by Water Isaacson.
- Zero to One by Peter Thiel.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU49: Will Big Data Enable KFL to Predict the Future? ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged is the CEO and Co-Founder of KFL. In this episode we explore their trading strategy and uncover the fundamental differences between what they are doing that makes them so different from traditional alternative investment organizations.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Transitioning from commercial litigation to wholesale mutual fund vending
- How Dave Sanderson was exposed to alternative investments in the first place
- The convincing required to get top big data scientists to work on financial challenges
- The comical story of how carefully big data scientist come to conclusions
- What Dave Sanderson loves to do when he isn’t working directly on KFL Capital Management
- How Dave Sanderson sees the deviation between machine learning and systematic trading
- What it means to exist in a deluge of big data
- How Dave Sanderson and KFL perceive themselves and the usefulness of labeling
- Is machine learning a superior method than conventional approaches to trading?
- About the choice of Krystal as a name for their fund
- The structuring challenges behind KFL Capital Management and why they are more like a tech firm
- The focus for expanding KFL Capital Management
- About evolutionary computing and how KFL Capital Management grows with the markets
- Is there an environment which would be optimal for Krystal?
- Is there an environment which would be severely challenging for Krystal?
- The use of non-parametric modeling and why this type of prediction takes KFL out of most conventional finance sector buckets
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Man AHL – Dave Sanderson’s initial exposure to alternative investment.
- Thomas K. Hunter – “He’s probably done more tech deals than anybody in Canada.”
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU48: How to Understand a New Manager’s Track Record ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 2of2
In the second part of our interview with Bastian, we talk about the ins and outs of his trading program and how they came to create the current trading system that they run now. Niels talks with Bastian about drawdowns, risk management, and how investors should read and understand a manager’s track record. Listen in to find out more about Deep Field Capital and learn what it takes to be an successful emerging manager today.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About the 23 potential markets that Bastian trades, and which ones are actually traded.
- How he uses a “bus stop” metaphor to explain which markets get picked for trading.
- How he views risk and how he deals with risk management.
- If there are certain markets that are better performing for his strategies than others.
- What kinds of drawdowns he expects his strategy to go through.
- The three different types of investors that come in to his fund.
- What he learns from drawdowns when they happen.
- About the research and futures development that his firm conducts.
- What the biggest challenges are today for his business.
- What reason investors give for not investing in his fund.
- What question investors are not asking in their due diligence.
- If he was starting out today, the things he would have done differently.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Bastian Bolesta on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU47: How to Start Managing Client Capital ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 1of2
The story of Deep Field Capital’s Founder and CEO is an interesting one. Bastian Bolesta met his future partners whilst spending a semester abroad in China before returning to Germany and then moving to Switzerland to join them. The team also moved from the discretionary trading space to a unique way of systematic trading. Deep Field is a relative newcomer to the industry as they don’t have a 20+ year track record, so our conversation has timely insights for those looking to start a firm and begin managing external client capital.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Bastian’s background and how he got interested in finance.
- How he grew up in Frankfurt and went to university there.
- What he learned from a semester abroad in China and why he returned there after graduating.
- How he met his future business parters and started their first business.
- How they went from the discretionary trading mindset to a systematic trading firm.
- How they came up with their initial trading ideas.
- The difference between discretionary and systematic traders.
- What he does when he’s not running his business.
- Pros and cons of trading external capital and how they started trading other people’s money.
- How Bastian looks at the industry as a young and vibrant firm (started after 2008) and offers a different perspective then those who have 20+ years in the industry.
- How he built the business from the ground up and how to grow a business smartly.
- How to convince investors that you can compete with larger managers.
- How regulation affects the business.
- The track record of their strategy and how investors should look at it.
- The details of their trading program, and why they work in “themes”.
- The allocation process for his program.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Bastian mentions this “Pick Me” moment from the movie Shrek.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Bastian Bolesta on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU46: The Benefits of Negative Correlation ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 2of2
In our continued conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, we discuss risk management, drawdowns, why negative correlation is so important to Roy, and what gets him out of bed every morning (and what keeps him awake at night). Learn more about how to create a balanced and diversified portfolio or what it takes to be a manager.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What has changed by the fact that more and more trading decisions are made by computers instead of humans.
- The issue of model decay in Roy’s field.
- Why he has constructed his trading program the way that he has.
- His ten-step process from idea generation to putting it into the system. The research process laid out.
- How his firm does research.
- How position sizing plays a role in the short term space.
- How he keeps model slippage to a minimum.
- Risk management and how Roy deals with it.
- When to use discretion to reduce risk.
- What he learns from going through a drawdown.
- How he keeps investors in the firm during a tough time.
- How he personally deals with drawdowns.
- How he measures the effectiveness of his research.
- If his risk tolerance went down once he had more money under management.
- What the biggest challenge is for Roy in the short term management space.
- What investors are not asking him during due diligence.
- What makes him go into work everyday.
- Books that Roy recommends reading for managers and investors.
- How the office environment affects how investors perceive a firm.
- About downside protection and negative correlation.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Roy mentions the Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
- He recommends Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
- Roy highly recommends Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Roy Niederhoffer on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU45: How To Overcome Cognitive Bias in Investing & Trading ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 1of2
Roy Niederhoffer has a fascinating live story that starts with Harvard and neuroscience and continues into his starting a hedge fund in the short-term trading space in 1993. Roy discusses the exciting and bootstrapping beginnings of his firm, the cognitive biases that keep most humans from making good investment decisions, and how his firm stands out from other CTAs. Investors and managers alike will learn a wealth of information from this episode.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Roy got interested in the financial markets from an interest in computers at a young age.
- How he started a company that had 30 employees by the end of his high school.
- How his brother was an early adopter in the Hedge Fund space.
- How he spent his undergraduate years studying neuroscience.
- Roy graduated from Harvard and was set to go to Cambridge for neuroscience until he worked for his brother for a summer.
- The story of how he started his firm and when he began trading in July 1993.
- How the human brain influences behavior and how that translates to trading.
- Cognitive biases and how to avoid them in the financial market.
- What Roy thinks of trend following and how to explain it to the public.
- The other investors he worked at in his first job out of college, that later became famous investors in their own right.
- Why Roy’s firm was “employing” a cook and a maid when they started the business in 1993.
- How he plays in a symphony and keeps up his pursuit of being a musician while running his firm at the same time.
- What he thinks about the future of the CTA industry.
- How his model works in an ecosystem of other portfolio management options.
- How they distinguish themselves from other CTAs.
- An overview of the strategies that his firm does today.
- How the infrastructure of the business is setup today and the unique opportunities of the short term space.
- What he looks for when adding people to his research team.
- The culture that he has created at the firm.
- What matters to him when investors look at the track record of his firm.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about Roy from his wikipedia article.
- Niels mentions that listeners should also check out the Top Traders Unplugged episodes with Kathryn Kaminsky.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Roy Niederhoffer on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with the founder of Whitmore Capital Management, we learn the daily challenges, and lessons learned right from the founder and owner of a fledgling firm. We dive into discussions on risk management, drawdown, attracting outside capital, and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How many currencies Mark trades and if he thinks he will trade more in the future.
- About how he diversifies his system.
- A case study of the Russian Ruble.
- His use of charts when looking at currencies.
- A discussion of cognitive biases.
- How he compares his system to trend following and how the two models can work in harmony.
- How he enters and exists a trade using his system.
- Why he is an “every end of two weeks” trader.
- How much capital he would like his strategy to manage and how much it can feasibly manage.
- How he defines risk and manages risk.
- How he deals with drawdowns as a fund manager.
- What he learns from going through drawdowns.
- How he goes about doing research for his strategy without a research team.
- How he sees red flags in his strategy and when he has changed his model.
- How Mark goes about marketing and getting interest from investors in his strategy and fund.
- How he plans to avoid becoming more risk averse as the firm grows.
- What he thinks about the “key man” issue and what he is doing to plan for the eventuality of leaving his business to someone else.
- How he decided the location of his business.
- What the hardest thing will be for him as he tries to grow the business.
- What investors should be asking him that they are not.
- What it takes to become a great trader in Mark’s view.
- What he learned from the baseball card market in the US during his university years.
- What he has learned from past failures.
- His favorite books and why he recommends them.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Mark has authored many white papers on currencies, including:
- Currency Investing: An Alpha-Rich Environment
- How to Invest When Both Stocks and Bonds are Overpriced
- The Case for Currencies as an Asset Class Becomes Stronger
- Books that Mark mentions and recommends:
- Winning The Loser’s Game
- The Obstacle is The Way
- Economics in One Lesson
- The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark Whitmore on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU43: The Case For Currencies As An Asset Class ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest started his firm back in 2012, and we’re talking to him at a special moment in the company’s evolution as it starts to gain outside capital and make its mark in the industry. Listen in to gain insights into how a manager started his firm in the current environment, the inside view on currencies as an asset class, and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Mark was interested in finance from a very early age and learned from his adoptive parents.
- About his time studying macroeconomics in college.
- The story of his career and how it took a windy series of turns before heading into the financial market.
- His time studying currencies when he was in law school and his time as lawyer.
- How he started getting into the financial markets by investing in stocks in the late 90s.
- How he quit his job as a lawyer and planned to go into the financial services sector.
- His ventures into the currency markets and why he considered them in the first place.
- How he started by managing his own money.
- What he sees in currencies as an asset class and how he describes that to investors.
- How the currency market has changed throughout the years.
- How he decided to launch his business in 2012 and how he got organized to take outside capital.
- How he built the organization and his business.
- What kind of organization he would like to grow into in the future.
- Why culture in a small company is a very important issue.
- How he looks at track record, being such a young company.
- How he created the models he uses for his strategy.
- The example of the Euro and what Mark predicts for the currency in 5 years.
- His thoughts on the Swiss Franc and the historical context of its value.
- The Singapore Dollar and how it is likened to the Swiss Franc.
- How many currencies he trades.
- How he thinks about diversification.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Mark mentions the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street in this episode.
- Mark has authored many white papers on currencies, including:
- Currency Investing: An Alpha-Rich Environment
- How to Invest When Both Stocks and Bonds are Overpriced
- The Case for Currencies as an Asset Class Becomes Stronger
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark Whitmore on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU42: Why You Need this Trading Strategy TODAY ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 2of2
Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with researcher and co-author of one of the definitive books on trend following. In this conversation, we dive into the the models that she used in writing the book, as well as her thoughts regarding risk management, what you should be asking a manager during due diligence, and what the future holds for the managed futures industry.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What Kathryn looks at when evaluating the track records of managers.
- Her thoughts on the recent performance of trend followers.
- About price range compression.
- If she has a favorite statistic to look at when analyzing a manager.
- How she and her co-author came up with the trading strategy that they use in their book.
- Why the exit from a position is just as important as the entrance.
- What trend leakage is.
- Her views on how inflation and other environmental changes affects trend following strategies.
- About diversification.
- About risk management; how Kathryn defines risk and what is important to look at in risk management.
- Kathryn explains the topics of hidden and unhidden risk.
- What kind of drawdowns should be expected from a trend following model.
- A discussion of the drawdowns that trend followers have experience in the last few years.
- Seeing drawdowns as a buying opportunity.
- How to detect if a manager’s models and system has stopped working.
- The biggest challenge for the CTA industry right now.
- What she would ask of David Harding.
- What questions investors should be asking of managers when doing their due diligence.
- What personalities traits a good trend following manager should have.
- Her thoughts on regulation, especially for smaller managers.
- What her plans are for the future and how she sees the managed futures industry going forward.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Kathryn’s book is: Trend Following with Managed Futures.
- Is this Time Different? Trend Following and Financial Crisis.
- Following the Trend
- Outlier
- David and Goliath
- Lean In
- Kathryn’s TED talk on Convergence and Divergence.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kathryn Kaminski on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2
Our next guest is different than any guest we’ve had before, as she is not a fund manager but has spent much of her life’s work researching and writing about the topic of trend following. She is a true thought leader in the managed futures industry and you’ll learn a lot from the animated discussion we have regarding the history of trend following and how she co-authored her latest book on the subject.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About Kathryn’s upbringing in Nashville, Tennessee.
- About her time at MIT where she went for electrical engineering.
- How her internship at a bank in France got her on the path to work in the financial industry.
- About her teaching financial engineering with Andrew Lo.
- Through her teaching and research, she became interested in technical analysis and trend following.
- How Kathryn went to the Stockholm School of Economics.
- When she left academia and joined RPM in Sweden.
- How she met Alex Greyserman and how she came to write a book with him.
- The history of trend following as she lays it out in her book.
- How trend following at its core is quite simple.
- What Kathryn likes to do outside of work.
- Her work life balance and her life in Sweden.
- Her view on the building blocks of trend following.
- Her quest for acceptance of trend following in the academic community.
- Where the term Crisis Alpha came from and what it is.
- About Convergent and Divergent strategies.
- About the Adaptive Market Hypothesis that she writes about in the book.
- What the CTA Smile is and what it really means.
- What she would look for when building or critiquing a research team.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Kathryn’s book is: Trend Following with Managed Futures.
- Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kathryn Kaminski on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2
Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Managed Futures expert and President Mike Harris of Campbell & Company. In this episode we delve into the specifics of Campbell & Company’s trading programs, how models are added or removed, and the importance of risk management. This episode also explores the managed futures industry as a whole and is a must-hear for anyone looking to gain knowledge about this strategy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About Campbell & Company’s trading program.
- How they create a trading strategy.
- Why they use a hypothesis driven system to add new models to their programs.
- About the peer review process they use before adding or subtracting models.
- When do you remove a model? How do you know when it isn’t working anymore?
- About position sizing and why its important.
- How they look at risk through something called Vertical Risk and Horizontal risk.
- Campbell’s systematic approach to risk management.
- How he deals with drawdowns.
- Why he worries about systemic risk and natural disasters.
- Why Mike thinks redundancies are so important.
- The risk of regulation.
- How these strategies tend to perform when interest rates go up.
- The trend of the managed futures industry and why it has been dominated by European firms in the past 10 years.
- What people need to become a successful manager: humility is “at the top of the list.”
- Books that Mike recommends.
- What he would do differently if he could talk to his younger self.
- The importance of managing work and life balance.
- What the future looks like for Campbell & Company.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about Baltimore and Johns Hopkins University.
- Hedge Fund Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
- Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John Murphy
- Trend Following with Managed Futures
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Harris on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2
This episode goes in-depth into the history of one of the most well-known managed futures firms in the world, Campbell & Company. We explore the beginnings of the company, how they have dealt with challenges a long the way and how they have succeeded to overcome them, as well as the current state of the company and the systematic models their products are built on. Our guest is current President of the company, Mike Harris, and you’ll hear about how he entered the industry as well as his path to becoming Campbell’s President.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Mike explains what he does.
- How his grandfather gave him money to invest in his first stock as a child.
- How his interest in the financial markets started young and how he structured his whole education around working in this industry.
- About his first job out of college.
- About his time as a Futures Broker.
- How he joined Campbell & Company in 2000, starting at the European Trading desk.
- How he came to be President.
- The story of how Keith Campbell started the firm in 1972.
- The history of Campbell & Company.
- How they dealt with drawdowns in 1994 and ’95.
- Why Mike has always been an avid reader.
- How Campbell’s 2nd President, Bruce Cleland ran the business for 20 years and how I met him back in 1993.
- What the company’s product offering looks like today.
- How the company’s 130+ employees are organised.
- How they outsource things on the technology side of the business.
- What he looks for when adding staff to his research team.
- How Mike builds a strong company culture.
- How investors should make sense of the track record of Campbell & Co since they have such a long history.
- Changes they have made to the trading models after 2007 and 2008.
- The ways the company uses long term, medium term, and shorter term systems.
- Where the company wants to grow and how big it wants to get.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about a Carry Trades.
- Learn more about short-term mean reversion.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Harris on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with AHL founder and Aspect Capital Director, we dive into the details of his firm’s strategies and models. We explore how the models evolve, how he deals with risk management, and his advice for would-be fund managers. Investors and managers alike will gain deep knowledge from this episode.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How their model changes are very small and gradual.
- What the Diversified Program of Aspect looks like today.
- How Martin weights the portfolio between financial markets and commodity markets.
- How his model allows them to grow the company.
- About foreign exchange markets and liquidity.
- The 2008 crisis and how it affected their models.
- The real secret behind trend following and how it works.
- How they are making the transition to a “box-to-box” execution approach.
- How Martin defines risk and risk management.
- About model risk.
- How their risk team operates.
- Why correlations are a crucial to look at.
- How drawdowns are different than open-ended risk and how to explain that to investors.
- Why succession planning is not an issue for the company right now.
- What his biggest challenge is.
- The evolution that is going on in the managed futures industry in general.
- How small firms are struggling but may see opportunities in the future.
- What Martin would ask David Harding if he were interviewing him.
- What investors forget or don’t know to ask.
- Martin’s advice for managers or would-be managers.
- A vacation the Martin took his family on, that turned traumatic for a moment and that British Airways learned a lot from.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Martin suggests books by Antti Ilmanen.
- Learn more about David Harding and Winton Capital Management.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Aspect Capital on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2
In this episode, we get an exciting behind-the-scenes story of one of the most famous systematic trading firms of its time, AHL. Our guest is one of the firms founders and takes us from the company’s birth to its acquisition by Man Group. We also discuss how he started his next company, Aspect Capital, how he creates his trading models, and how to build and run a successful multi-billion trend-following firm. This episode is full of insights and stories that you won’t hear elsewhere.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About Quantitative Investment research.
- About Martin’s background in physics.
- Martin’s time at his first company, AHL and how it had a profound effect on the whole managed futures industry.
- How Martin met his future AHL co-founders at university.
- Why AHL was a happy accident.
- How he met his friend Michael Adam and went to work for his dad after studying in Oxford.
- Martin started working for Michael’s dad as well, investigate many trading models and distilling them into key concepts.
- In 1987 they founded AHL with David Harding after leaving Michael’s father’s business.
- They started with $100k of investor money that bridged their split from the family business.
- About MINT, a pioneering systematic CTA in the early 80s.
- How they tried to articulate their trading patterns in the form of a computer trading model.
- What the initial AHL model looked like back then.
- How they over optimized in the beginning and had to learn things as they went along.
- How AHL got involved with Man Group.
- The skills that each of the 3 Founders brought to the table.
- In 1989 Man Group took a stake in AHL.
- How the Man buy changed their business.
- What happened after Man’s IPO.
- How Michael, David, and Martin went their own ways after they left AHL.
- How Martin started Aspect Capital with Anthony Todd, Eugine Lambert and Michael Adam.
- Why he parted ways with his other AHL founders initially and did not start AHL 2.0.
- What he does when he is not working.
- Aspect was founded on bringing managed futures to the institutional side of things.
- What it looks like running 100-person+ organization.
- What he looks for when adding new researchers and staff to his team.
- The lessons he has learned and the mistakes he’s made in building a culture of an organization.
- About their track record and how it should be viewed.
- Martin’s persistence in using trend following models.
- How his models have changed and how he has dealt with risk management over the years.
- What it means to change his models from a binary implementation to an analog implementation.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about AHL.
- Find out more about the MAN group.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Aspect Capital on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU36: A Look inside a Currency Trading Firm ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 2of2
In Part 2 of our conversation with the CEO of Insch Capital Management, we talk about how the firm’s trading models work and how they were built. We discuss how Insch deals with drawdowns, increased regulation, and marketing. This is a truly in-depth episode into the mind of a hedge fund Founder and the inner workings of an Alternative investment firm.
Welcome to the second part of our conversation with Chris Cruden.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Indicators that are more robust than others.
- Chris’ views on stop losses.
- How his firm deals with risk and how he uses Index Risk.
- How correlations play a part in his models.
- About risk equivalency.
- how he deals with drawdowns.
- Why a sense of humor is important in this business, especially during drawdowns.
- How investors don’t share the same confidence in the model as managers and how managers can better share that confidence.
- How simple his system really is.
- Why you must have discipline. Many trend followers are making all-time highs but many people have announced the death of trend following time and time again.
- What the “black swan” event and the “gray swan” event would be for Chris’ business.
- The two kinds of research that his firm does.
- Why his team looks at emerging currencies in their research even though they do not trade them.
- What he is looking for in terms of red flags during his research that suggest models need to be tweaked.
- How he tries to stand out from the crowd in order to attract investors.
- Why he is based in Lugano, Switzerland.
- What Chris would ask David Harding if he was doing the interviewing instead of being interviewed.
- What investors forget to ask him.
- Why it’s a good idea to ask if you can try a dummy account with a new investment manager to see how it works.
- How he deals with the difficulties of regulation.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
- Trend Following: How to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Chris Cruden on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU35: The Advantages of Being a Systematic Trader ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest was a British Army Officer and moved to South Africa before finding a career in the financial markets. He is now the CEO of his Managed Futures firm and has worked with some of the industry’s most influential companies and people, including Dean Witter and AHL. The story of his career’s beginnings and the lessons he used to become a systematic trend follower are unique and insightful. You’re sure to learn a lot from this episode.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Chris came to work with Dean Witter, one of the leading players in the industry back in the 1980’s & 90’s.
- About his days working for AHL in the early 90’s.
- How his career started off as a British Army officer.
- His time in Africa after leaving the army – finding himself in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe).
- About his first job at Syfrets Trust bank in South Africa as a Gold analyst.
- How he came to do business with Dean Witter Reynolds and after a few years why they hired him.
- After the 1988 crash he found himself back in London and joined AHL.
- In 1993 he went back to New York joined with Robert M Tamiso, a mentor to him.
- Why he looked for a market that was not overcrowded and easily spooked, which was the inter-bank foreign exchange market.
- What AHL was doing in the beginning of the company.
- Why he started trading currencies early on.
- How Bob Tamiso was successful and the way he carried himself that made him successful.
- Why Bob Tamiso’s best advice was to always “show up”.
- About Chris’ golf playing and his ties to Scotland.
- His routine at work and why being a systematic trader makes him boring and bad at marketing, but helps him sleep at night knowing they are going to “show up” the next day.
- About Chris’ goal with his work and why he is happy with the size of his firm and why growth is not the prime focus.
- How he has such low staff turnover and why he likes to work with young people who have never worked anywhere else in the financial world.
- What matters when discussing a firm’s track record and how his programs are setup.
- The building blocks of their trading program and how the money they’ve made has historically come mainly from interest rate differentials.
- What the environment has been like for a currency program in the last 5 years.
- Why he believes the current intervention by The Fed is not so substantially different that his model won’t be able to see good returns in the future
- How he designed his program and what its objective is.
- What currencies he trades and how he trades them.
- Why volatility has been so low but why he sees that it is coming back and why it’s a good thing for his models.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about Dean Witter.
- Get more information on AHL.
- For historical background, see this article on Rhodesia.
- Learn more about Lugano, the city where Insch is located.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Chris Cruden on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2
In the second part of our interview with hedge fund founder Luc Van Hof, we dive into the philosophy and creation behind his trading models. We also discuss why he is a risk averse person, what hobbies help him stay focused at work, and what investors and fund managers can do to grow their business and trade smarter.
Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Luc Van Hof.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How to avoid model decay and how to avoid the risk when the model may stop working in the future.
- How to diversify your types of models – dynamic filtering that takes place. Automatic de-leveraging when a certain market goes down.
- How Luc chooses his models and why he does:
- Short term trend following
- Short term mean reversion
- What concepts for his models repeat themselves over and over again, pattern recognition.
- About volatility risk premium strategies.
- How he tests his models that have so many moving parts in short timeframes.
- His views on position sizing.
- What investors should look at in terms of risk management
- Maximum Exposure for a trade – determines the maximum risk that a trade can generate for the total of the portfolio.
- How Luc deals with drawdowns.
- Why he is a risk averse person.
- Why he is still researching other trading ideas when he thinks he’s found a way that mitigates risk effectively.
- How he gets his ideas from math puzzles, reading about geometry and logic.
- Why investors should look at the predictability of returns and how to convince investors what and how you are going to trade is something that is going to work.
- Why discipline is the main characteristic that people need to be a successful fund manager.
- The books that he recommends for managers starting out wanting to be successful.
- How his hobbies such as nature, reading, and music help to keep him balanced in a busy financial world.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Luc Van Hof on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU33: Options Trading: A Dangerous Animal? ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 1of2
Our next guest worked for the European Commission before starting his own firm. In an unusual career twist, he sold his company to a larger firm only to buy it back from them a few years later and had to start from scratch. Learn about his aversion to risk, his short term trading strategies, and his interesting past as one of the fastest readers in the world.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About Luc’s time working for the treasuring of the European Commission starting in 1985.
- How he learned about Options trading before many people were doing.
- About his years working for Bankers Trust in London and Morgan Stanley as a trader and how those experiences influenced his career later.
- How he started Analytic Investment Management (AIM), doing options trading.
- How he acquired his first clients.
- Why he got started trading currencies.
- About the early days of trading and the physically demanding work before computers took over.
- How his attendance at conferences, getting invited to speak on panels, and other speaking engagement led to the sale of his company.
- About the selling of AIM to Trobico in 2006 and why trobico bought his firm.
- How he ended up buying his company back from Trobico in 2010 after management changes caused them to shut down everything in the alternative investment space.
- About the different products that Capital Hedge provides.
- How he had to start from scratch, getting all new investments after buying his firm back.
- Where he is now – advising $200 Million US dollars, mainly in his DPI program.
- How he is one of the fasted readers in the world, and how he learned to speed-read from a class he took in the Netherlands.
- How he convinces institutional investors that a 2-3 person company is enough to manage the investments they have, and how technology has changed the game from needing a staff of 25 to needing just 2.
- How small managers need to describe what they do, and why they might not want a multibillion-under-management hedge fund.
- How investors should look at a track record of a firm and why that doesn’t necessarily mean good returns in the future.
- Why investors should see the latest test of what the firm is currently running rather than worry too much about the historic model results.
- How Luc trades and develops his systems, and how he looks for patters in the market.
- How to avoid model decay and avoid the risk when the model will stop working in the future.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about the European Commission.
- More about Bankers Trust.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Luc Van Hof on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU32: The Most Misunderstood Stats That You Can Use ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with Marc Malek, we explore the strategies that he uses to build his models and how he explains them in simple terms. We go in depth about drawdowns and what investors should know about them. We also discuss what keeps Marc inspired, what he does for fun, and how he couldn’t imagine having any other job.
Welcome back to Part 2 of our conversation with Marc Malek.
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About the four strategies inside Conquest Capital’s Macro program.
- How the technological revolution has changed the market and trend following, now that everyone gets the same information at the same time.
- Marc’s approach to building trading models.
- Defining risk in terms of upside deviation vs. downside deviation in the portfolio.
- Why correlation is one of the most misunderstood stats that you can use.
How Marc deals with drawdowns and why he thinks nothing new is happening now that did not happen before.
His view on backtesting.
The challenges hedge fund owners face in the current business climate and why Marc is lucky to have investors that have stuck by him.
Why Marc is motivated to keep pushing through this period and why he loves what he does.
The story of how Conquest Capital got its first investor, and how in the early days investors cared more about managers and interacting with them personally.
Marc’s biggest failures, and how he overcame them.
The hobbies Marc has and why he likes seemingly dangerous sports.
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Learn more about Backtesting.
Learn about Downside Deviation.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Marc Malek on Linkedin.
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
TTU31: Why Investors Should Not be Worried ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 1of2
This guest had a different path that eventually led to owning a hedgefund in New York. Marc Malek got a grant from NASA to study how different armored tank positions would lead to winning results on the battlefield. Traveling to Wisconsin to begin his research, his advisor steered him to do a similar project on stocks, bonds, and equities instead. He went on to work for UBS and finally founded his own firm, Conquest Capital Group. His story will fascinate and inspire you.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The story of how Marc became interested in the financial markets after a university project, a bit unexpectedly.
- About Marc’s upbringing in Beirut, Lebanon.
- How his studies at Caltech in neural networks and decision support systems eventually led him to the stock market.
- About his grant from NASA to research the position of tanks.
- His job offer from Oracle that he turned down.
- About his first job out of university at Salomon Brothers and why he left after one year.
- How Marc got hired at UBS and moved to Europe and then Asia during his time with the company.
- Marc’s departure from UBS and how he started Conquest Capital Group.
- How trader’s thought processes are turned into trading models.
- Why models are not black boxes and why investors should not be worried.
- The history of trend following and the old systematic approach.
- How markets move for alpha and beta reasons.
- About “turtle strategies” vs “trend following 2.0”.
- How Marc’s strategies and models have evolved over time.
- About his product Conquest Macro and the two mandates that the product has.
- How his product makes the bulk of its return during periods of risk aversion and high volatility.
- How his firm developed a risk index in a time before anyone was doing them.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- See Episodes 13 and 14 for more discussion on “Turtle Strategies”.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Marc Malek on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU30: Don’t Tweak Your Models! ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 2of2
Welcome back to the second part of our discussion with Aref Karim. In this episode, Aref discusses his firm’s strategies and the broader philosophies that drives what he does. He also talks about market volatility, the need to innovate while keeping models intact, his perspective on drawdowns, and what investors should be asking their managers. You’ll learn something about the art galleries and music that fuels his inspiration, and what he thinks it takes to become a successful hedge fund manager.
You will be amazed by the candid truthfulness of Aref at the end of the episode as he speaks about his personal life and the current state of his business. Thanks for listening to Part 2 of the conversation, I hope you enjoy it.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- What strategies his firm uses regarding commodities and currencies.
- How Aref explains his investment strategy in a concise and understandable way.
- Why volatility is an important source of information when making investment decisions.
- How to make the best of the current market environment and innovate.
- Why his firm evolves their model on a macro level and does not change the model every time the markets change.
- How QCM manages risk.
- Aref’s perspective on drawdowns and how to make investors comfortable with drawdowns and see them as an opportunity.
- How investors should be evaluating the track records of managers given that some firms’ models have changed over time.
- How growth and technology have effected the relationship managers have with potential investors and why it is still best to meet the manager in person.
- When investors ask questions of potential managers, the economic alignment question often gets left out.
- What it takes to be a successful fund manager: treating it like a business even if you are investing for yourself.
- Aref’s personal appreciation for the arts, art galleries, opera, and jazz. How it inspires him.
- How Aref sees the current state of QCM and why he believes in its future.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about Long Volatility vs Short Volatility, mentioned as “Long Vol” by Aref in the episode.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow QCM on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU29: How the largest investor in Hedge Funds got Started ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 1of2
How do you transition from working alongside the capital management industry to starting your own hedge fund? Our next guest grew up in Bangladesh but fled to London during the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971. He worked as an accountant and then went on to join the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) where he pioneered the organization’s futures investment department. Learn about his personal setbacks and successes, his innovative investment strategies, and how he founded Quality Capital Management in the UK.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About Aref’s childhood in Bangladesh.
- How his father wanted all 10 of his children to attend university and instilled in them the belief system that made them successful.
- Why Aref decided to study English and Literature even though his background was in the sciences.
- The story of Aref’s escape to the United Kingdom because of war and social upheaval in Bangladesh.
- How he went from being an accountant in England to working for the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, ADIA.
- Aref’s perspective on the history of the hedge fund industry and the alternative investment industry.
- About the beginnings of ADIA’s futures department that Aref helped to start.
- The early days of the futures industry and Aref’s perspective on trend-following.
- How he overcame personal setbacks when his wife unexpectedly passed away, leaving him with three young children.
- About Aref’s return to the UK and his decision to start his own CTA and start trading in futures.
- About the genesis of Quality Capital Management.
- How Aref’s investment strategy evolved and the specifics of his current trading strategy.
- How he measures the “Flow” of the market.
- Why his strategy looks at changes in volatility and doesn’t care whether it is a bond or an equity.
- How QCM went from using a few indicators to no indicators at all.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about Aref Karim on his Wikipedia page.
- Learn about the Bangladesh Liberation War that displaced Aref from his country of birth to the UK.
- Learn more about the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA).
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow QCM on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU28: How to Bridge the Gap Between Philosophy & Rules ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 2of2
Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scott Foster, President and Founder of Dominion Capital Management.
In this episode, we learn the philosophical rules that drive his firm, and how he bridges the gap between the philosophy behind his decisions and the models he creates. We discuss the increased governmental involvement in the markets and the adjustments that Scott has had to make to adapt to new signals. Finally, we learn the personal habits that help Scott succeed. Thank you for listening to Part 2 of our conversation with Scott Foster.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why Scott does not worry about model decay due to the principals with which he runs his firm.
- How to bridge the gap between philosophy and rules.
- How he created the Sapphire program, his firm’s signature service, and what it took to create it.
- How increased government involvement in the markets has changed his system and made him adapt to new signals in the markets.
- Why and how political feedback and involvement are affecting the markets and short term trading.
- How his firm is able to so expertly predict to potential customers their drawdowns and how they contain them.
- That investors spend too much time dissecting the drawdowns and not enough time looking at why and how they made money.
- The principals of behavior finance and the underlying philosophical principals such as self attribution bias and loss aversion.
- How alone time and contemplation have led to 80% of Scott’s best trading ideas.
- The hardest part of being the President of a fund and why it is not the trading.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn more about illusory superiority, the bias that the Lake Wobegon effect is name after, or Lake Wobegon itself, a fictional town in Minnesota.
- Learn more about Mean Reversion, which Scott’s firm looks at closely in the models they use.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Scott Foster on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU27: Magician-turned Trader: “Reality Doesn’t Matter” ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest was a philosophy major and a magician before he ever considered trading in the stock market. In Part 1 of our talk, he describes how philosophy and psychology determine his firm’s decisions and the story of how he started trading in a small town in Pennsylvania.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- On the 20th Anniversary of Scott’s firm, he looks back on how it all started.
- Scott’s life as a magician and how the principals of magic influences his perspective on trading and the market.
- How he became a philosophy major and how he applies philosophy to trading and everything his firm does.
- How he started trading in the market, getting a group of his college friends to take out cash advances on their credit cards and investing it.
- The Austrian perspective on economics that his college was well known for.
- How he educated himself in futures trading and invested long before he ever met another trader.
- Scott’s initial lessons learned from trading in the stock market; how he lost almost all of his capital in one day and had the first sleepless night of his life.
- How he made the mistake of investing in coffee and cocoa in the late 1980s and what he learned from that experience.
- How he started his first firm in 1989.
- How Scott traded while living in rural Western Pennsylvania.
- How a philosophy major with no connections to the financial world used his network to find a mentor.
- The story of Scott becoming a principal at one of the biggest short-term CTAs in the world.
- The story of Dominion Capital Management, which he started in 1994 by moving to Chicago.
- Why he is based in Traverse City, Michigan.
- How his firm is a bit different and why they don’t have any mathematicians or scientists on their team.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about the Square of Opposition that Scott explains in the episode.
- In Scott’s first job at a firm, the company hired people belonging to Mensa.
- Learn about how trading was conducted and firms operated before the use of personal computers and the Internet. Scott’s firm had a VAX computer.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Scott Foster on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU26: The Most Repeatable Trading Method Ever Invented ft. Scot Billington – 2of2
Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scot Billington of Covenant Capital Management.
In this episode, Scot delves into the practice of trend following and why it is a great model to follow. He also discusses tips for beginning traders and investors, and advice for those who wants to start a firm. Thank you for listening to Part 2 of our conversation with Scot Billington.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The story of Scot’s childhood obsession with mathematically based, but unknown future outcomes.
- The discipline required to follow a mathematical model.
- The advantages of trend-following and why the media reports that “Trend Following is Dead” every few years.
- Scot’s philosophy on position sizing.
- How every sector in the market is highly correlated.
- Getting comfortable with taking risks: they exist and it is impossible to avoid them.
- The Barbell strategy: have very little money at risk, but the money that is at risk is in the most aggressive things that it can be.
- The biggest mistake that allocators make.
- How Scot conducts research for Covenant Capital.
- Why he is based in Nashville and how he overcomes the challenge of asking investors to buy into the long time-frame.
- Finding your niche as a boutique firm.
- Advice for managers wanting to start firms today.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Scot mentions how the media often announces the death of trend following. Here’s an article on the subject from Futures Magazine.
- Learn about the Barbell Trading Strategy.
- See 10 Fallacies when Selecting CTAs.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU25: Why a Mechanical, Long-Term Trend Approach is Best ft. Scot Billington – 1of2
Our next guest takes a mechanical, long-term trend approach to trading to a new level, and you’ll find out why he thinks it is the better option in this episode. He started Covenant Capital with his business partner in 1999 and has grown it into a profitable boutique firm. But in early 2002 after they ended the previous year down 20%, they really had to grind it out and stick to their guns which ultimately paid off in a big way.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Scot started his firm, doing the testing by hand.
- The difference between a discretionary model and a mechanical model and why Scot chose a mechanical one.
- How he met his business partner Brince Wilford and started with 3 accounts in 1999.
- How narrative bias can affect a trader’s decisions.
- How the firm got through a year that ended with them down 20%.
- What made Scot believe in his model and stick to his guns.
- The offerings that the firm currently has, including the differences in the trading models.
- The pitfalls of investing in shorter term models and not allowing managers to see a full cycles with markets.
- Why most allocators and investors are chasing 24-month returns on stocks and why that may not be the right approach.
- About different types of CTA firms, including boutiques, battleships, emerging, and experimental.
- What to look for in a CTA.
- How to get investors to share the long-term horizon with his firm when certain markets do very well in the short term.
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- An article on Covenant and Scot Billington in Futures Magazine.
- Check out Discretionary vs System Trading.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU24: What it Takes to be a Great Hedge Fund Manager ft. Anders Lindell of IPM – 2of2
Welcome back to the second part of our interview.
In this episode we dive into the negative effect of greed on the market. Anders Lindell again shows his depth of knowledge as he elaborates on the nature of irrationality though the ages and how our markets today, really are rather stretched. This is a powerful episode, I really do hope you will enjoy it.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the IPM model profited by choosing to position against the carry frenzy in Japanese Yen during late 2008
- Risk factor analysis when selecting model attributes
- What the more reliable indicator in the global economy is
- How their trading model works on overall, daily basis
- “Stop-Loss” Positioning in the IPM strategy
- Where IPM identifies value traps and optimizes their exposure to it
- The average length of trades at IPM
- What drives the relationships that Anders explores to build models around
- If Correlations structure matters when IPM decides on risk overlay to make market decisions
- Why timing can be the largest challenge for their strategy
- How Anders defines risk and how IPM controls the model and expected risk
- The biggest fear Anders have in regards to unexpected market effects
- What is expected in regards to drawdowns in the IPM Global Macro Strategy
- How to convey the needed confidence to investors during drawdowns
- Risk Management/Risk Control model rebuilding
- How Anders Lindell identifies research processes which will over engineer and cause return issues
- Succession planning as Anders sees it for IPM – Perception and Vision
- The challenges for IPM and how overcoming them has helped to make them stronger
- What Anders would suggest for investors to focus on
- What it takes to be a great hedge fund manager in today’s economy
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Anders Lindell on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU23: Former CEO Reveals How to Thrive in a Challenging Market ft. Anders Lindell of IPM – 1of2
Our next guest turned a challenging market into an opportunity to transform his strategy and build something substantial.
Welcome back to another episode of Top Traders Unplugged. Today we have the former CEO, now Chairman of Informed Portfolio Management on to discuss the road to formation of his firm, their Systematic Global Macro strategy, their unique approach to investor interaction and much much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The relevance of controlling production at paper and pulp mills while Anders was a developing man
- His history during his early days at JP bank as an analyst
- The impact of the shifts in the fixed income markets of the early 1990’s which inspired a new strategy
- The strategic focus that was the starting point for the formation of IPM
- Who Anders learned from early on and who helped him cultivate a career in the hedge fund industry
- How to find and retain talent and the entrepreneurial spirit drives in house management decisions
- How IPM as an organizations manages the in house operations
- How Anders hopes to see their potential realized in terms of double or tripling their AUM for future markets
- What Anders looks for when spotting talent for new team members
- Ideas for incentivizing team members to appreciate their careers
- The long term view of IPM’s track record and how to evaluate it
- More on the objective of the strategy of IPM and the environment in which it’s been designed to work well
- Why the opportunities and volatility in emerging market equity trades is decompressing globally
- The meaning of global macro and how they structured all the information into a systematic trading approach
- How the IPM model differentiates it’s self from discretionary trading models and how they run them
- The role of fundamental information in identifying market strategies
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Anders Lindell on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU22: The Most Important Question Investors Should be Asking ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 2of2
Did you know that a meditation practice can help you be a better investor?
In this episode we discuss our common lessons that we ask all Top Traders, but we dive deep into why Nigol thinks differently about CTA issues. Growing up in war-torn Lebanon shifts the filters he uses to see the markets. We all have filters but in this episode you will learn what perspective he takes on the markets that may, or may not, support his market philosophy.
Welcome back to the second half of our interview with Nigol Koulajian.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How growing up in war torn Lebanon influences the way Nigol filters market decisions
- The challenging nature of a market injected with federal liquidity
- Nigol’s strategies for selecting position sizing
- Drawdown expectations of Quest Partners
- How Quest works to maintain a balance in the working environment and how busy the team stays
- How Nigol manages emotional turmoil of drawdowns and how he projects this calmness upon his investors
- The few things that Nigol predicts would shake their strategy
- How to listen to clients and use their advice in a way that serves them, even if you don’t implement exactly what they’re saying
- Why mathematician optimization can adversely effect the strength of your CTA strategy
- How Nigol expects to know if a model is working or not
- The importance of using math as little as possible despite the systematic approach to trading
- A fascinating perspective on why the CTA industry AUM has shifted to Europe
- The most important question investors should be asking: “How to price tail risk.”
- What it takes to build a firm and become the next Quest
- Learn all about Nigol’s daily meditation practice which he credits as his top personal attribute to becoming a great trader
- The most challenging thing about being a CTA for Nigol (A: Fishing in a very small pond)
- Nigol’s biggest failure which occurred in 2009
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nigol Koulajian on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU21: Building a Computer That Makes Money? ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 1of2
Want to build a computer that makes money?
Quest Partners LLC has a long, robust track record with their systematic trading approach.
They utilize a different strategies from many of their peers and have diversified their product range to include equity programs both hedge and long only.
At the core of it all is their philosophy on focusing on what investors need. They provide solutions for investors rather than a purist strategy.
Leading the way is our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged, Nigol Koulajian.
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How growing up Armenian provides a filter for the way Nigol perceives the markets
- His experience at Anderson Consulting and how he ended up working with Solomon Brothers by chance
- Why Nigol spend time at Colombia Business School programming and building models
- What Nigol thinks of Value at Risk
- How Nigol found himself as a risk arbitrage manager despite his passion for CTA strategies
- How Nigol navigated beneficial detours before finally partnering to co-found Enterprise Asset Management in 1994
- About the founding and growth of Quest Partners from inceptions in 2001 to +760$ million in 2014
- The dangers of an increased correlation between alternative strategies designed to protect against trouble in traditional investment and the traditional asset classes themselves
- Learn about self reinforcing feedback loop and how managers of growing AUM are forced to allocate to factors that are doing well (but perhaps doing well by chance)
- About the tight, automated business infrastructure of Quest Financial Partners
- About the shift in volatility expansion and how to measure it
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Investors Business Daily – The finance newspaper which inspired Nigol in the early days
- 3 Research Pieces from Quest that specifically examine factor drifts that could effect the returns of CTAs
- Learn about Sharpe Ratio
- A specific trading model that trades the S&P and 30Y Bonds if it’s down 3 days in a row, with a stop-loss and profit target (Full testing and code in the link).
- BTOP50 – the index that seeks to replicate the overall composition of the managed futures industry with regard to trading style and overall market exposure
- Learn about David Harding, one of the largest alternative investment managers in the world
- Read this interesting article about transcendental meditation and Nigol
- Nigol’s Foundation to promote studies on eastern religious philosophies and Yoga
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Nigol Koulajian on Linkedin.
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
TTU20: How to Identify Trades No One Else is Looking For ft. Roman Lutz of Future Value Capital – 2of2
How would it feel to identify trades no one else you know is looking for?
Our guest is back and this interview is all about carry trades, mean reverting environments, merger arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, tail hedges and how to become the best trader possible. It’s quite likely there is something in this interview which will help propel you forward as a hedge fund manager or in your research of managers.
Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Chief Excutive Officer of Future Value Capital, Roman Lutz.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Simple Models used by Future Value Capital to implement trend following
- How they utilize carry trades
- The third area of models: Tail Hedges
- Learn about how to carry potentially large value variance swaps while keeping the premium for holding them down
- Where the variance exchange swaps derive from whether from OTC with counterparts or constructed using exchange listed products
- Learn about Credit Support Annex (CSA)
- Risk management procedures at Future Value Capital
- The purpose for tactical asset allocation meetings and the decisions that are made
- The common performance drivers and if there is a dominant part of the portfolio that is responsible for the performance
- How Roman translates the complex trading strategy of Future Value Capital to investors
- How Future Value Capital implements trades and why they consider it a key strength of their program
- How much AUM would be optimal running the program or if the potential is unlimited
- How to create certainty around the risk Future Value Capital holds and how they define that risk
- What Roman Lutz considers to be one of the riskiest thing that could happen in the financial system
- What to expect in terms of returns and drawdown when investing in Future Value Capital
- How to realize when a model is no longer working
- Personal habits that contribute to Roman’s success in managing a hedge fund
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Roman Lutz on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU19: How to Take the Emotions out of Investment Decisions ft. Roman Lutz of Future Value Capital – 1of2
Can you implement well established hedge fund strategies in a systematic way?
Future Value Capital has been researching this for years, before they started trading. They are unique because of how they simplify and automate complex Risk Premia.
But we aren’t the best at explaining their systems. Roman Lutz, the Chief Financial Officer of Future Value Capital will explain it all in this interview.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About Merger Arbitrage and How investors can Profit
- What criteria they look for in mergers, such as Market Cap, Deal Size, Liquidity etc.
- What currency markets Future Value Capital enters
- The app. 15 strategies they use and how many sub strategies they may have
- The origin stories of where the Future Value Capital strategy derived from.
- Understanding the typical way to build a derivative business
- Why the average correlation of a hedge fund with equities has shifted from 0.6 to 0.9 from the 1990’s to today.
- How Scottish Whiskey tasting can kickstart long term business relationships
- Addressing the “Black Box” label that many systematic programs has
- What environment Future Value Capital’s systems are best suited to operate within
- The business structure of Future Venture Capital and the alliance with Trium Capital
- About the post Madoff and additional regulatory environment investors are operating in
- How Roman Lutz developed the shared business management and split the overhead cost with other emerging fund managers
- The negative side effects of sharing hedge fund management business practices with other firms
- A ballpark figure for the cost of being part of the Trium Manager Alliance and get the services required to be able to operate as a regulated and well run firm
- How Roman and partners develop new plans in regards to where the economy is going and how to develop plans to manage funds going forward
- How merger arbitrage and volatility arbitrage connect implied and realized volatility
- How to buy realized volatility
- When to deploy and when not to deploy the realized volatility trades (when volatility starts to trend)
- Main categories from a strategy point of view – Trend Following for example
- How Future Value Capital uses trend following
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Listen to the past episode with Marty Bergen from Dunn Capital mentioned in regards to the higher correlation between traditional alternative investment space and the traditional assets.
Lars Jaeger owner of Alternative Beta Partners – Wrote extensively about the lack of alpha to people hunting it. 4x more assets are looking for alpha than alpha is available in the market.
Listen to our previous guest Karsten Schroeder from Amplitude Capital on the value of systematic trading vs. discretionary
Learn more about the determining implied market volatility with VIX
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Roman Lutz on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU18: Estimating & Predicting Black Swans ft. Peter Kambolin of Systematic Alpha Management – 2of2
Imagine if your assets under management went from $721 million to $50 million….
Would you have the courage to stick with your system?
Our next guest was able to weather that storm and come out even stronger. In fact, he gives credit to the fall in assets because it was an important component to improving their processes and efficiency today.
We’re excite to share with you, the second part of my interview with CEO of Systematic Alpha Management, Peter Kambolin.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How many markets Peter trades and the number of different spreads
- The three points during a day in which volatility is elevated
- What triggers an exit from a trade when profit levels haven’t been reached
- How Systematic Alpha Management makes decisions relating to sizing market positions
- The number of daily trades Systematic Alpha implements
- How much of the P/L comes from the hedge component of spread decisions
- What kind of Risk Budgets that Systematic Alpha Management runs
- How to drawdown profile has changed over the last few years
- Estimating and predicting Black Swan events
- How Peter personally balances the challenging feelings of managing a portfolio in drawdown
- Exploring mean reversion and how the hedge ratios change daily
- On the value of being located in the heart of New York
- The biggest challenge for Peter in running Systematic Alpha Management
- Peter’s opinion on why success in the CTA industry has shifted from the United States of America to Europe
- Why individuality is critical in success in the CTA industry
- Peter Kambilin’s biggest failure and what he learned from it
- Some fun facts about Peter that you probably would never have guessed
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Peter Kambolin on LinkedIn.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU17: Start Your Own Firm at 21 Years of Age? Russian CEO Tells All ft. Peter Kambolin of Systematic Alpha Management – 1of2
Peter Kambolin is the common sense CEO behind Systematic Alpha Management, an Award Winning CTA Firm which has come through the tremendous market forces of the past 10 years. Their staying power is a testament to their success as conscious, ruled based traders.
This episode is about his hero’s journey from immigrant origins in Moscow to founding a lasting, top financial service company headquartered in New York City.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About the effect of the 2004 internet bubble and how Systematic Alpha created a “market neutral” CTA strategy in response
- What it’s like to win global CTA awards yet still have to hunt new business due to capital flows towards large investment firms
- Peter’s story of moving from Moscow to New York and how he entered the finance industry
- The surprising story of how Peter was inspired to start his own firm at 21 years of age
- How Peter and Alexi work together to maximize each others strengths, and control for each-other’s weaknesses
- About the transition from long term to short term CTA strategies
- Why living in New York yet playing in Miami helps stoke Peter’s creativity
- The story of the dramatic period of March-August 2011 in which they experienced a drawdown that let to a drop in AuM from 721 million to 50 million due to investor redemptions.
- The effects of the coordination of global economic decisions by government on volatility and it’s effect on the overall environment for Systematic Alpha Management’s CTA programs.
- Why Peter considers Systematic Alpha to be a stronger firm after the steep drop in AUM they experienced in 2011.
- Where Systematic Alpha’s value proposition is and the importance of a CTA position in diversification
- How to get out of losing trades when liquidity is a problem
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Peter Kambolin on LinkedIn.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU16: You Can’t Learn This In A Book! ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 2of2
Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged. On this episode Karsten and I discuss the systems and implementation that has led Amplitude to such remarkable success. As the interview comes to a close, we learn about Karsten’s philosophy of success and entrepreneurship. Despite being based outside the global financial hubs (i.e. New York, Chicago, London) Amplitude has experienced world class results. He provides a deep philosophy on achieving success in the CTA industry.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Allocation of capital from a stop-loss point of view when doing short term trading
- Amplitude Capital’s systems for trade implementation
- Why high frequency trading is a very different strategy from that of Amplitude Capital’s
- Risk management strategies and the framework for embedding these principles into the Amplitude Capital operations
- Exploring the meaning of market correlation in short term CTA strategies
- Karsten Schroeder’s philosophy on drawdowns
- How managers can do a better job of explaining drawdowns
- The role of teamwork and processes in the research cycle
- The internal processes for validating implementation of strategies at Amplitude Captial
- Karsten Schroeder’s explanation for why Amplitude has experienced such success
- Do financial leaders need to live in financial hubs? How living outside of the financial hubs has impacted Amplitude Capital
- The difference between European CTA managers and US counterparts. Why has the market dominance shifted?
- The philosophy of failure that empowers Karsten Schroeder’s entrepreneurial journey
- What continues to inspire Karsten to keep running the business
- The question investors are not asking that they should be:
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2
Through courage and vision, Karsten Schroeder co-founded Amplitude Capital as a pioneer in the CTA industry.
Why pioneers? Because they focused on short term trading.
In this episode of Top Traders Unplugged, Karsten and I discuss Amplitude Capital’s scientific approach to Amplitude Dynamic and Amplitude Klassik. These are the two short-term rule based trading programs that Karsten and his team run to invest billions of dollars on behalf on a small group of institutional investors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The founding story of Amplitude Capital
- About the motivation source for choosing short term trading
- The scientific processes guiding Amplitude’s perception of the markets
- How Amplitude manages their in-house and outsourced business processes
- Where the point of optimal capital under management is for Amplitude Capital
- A bird’s eye view of their historical track record and their reaction to the market shift in 2009
- On the effects of quantitative easing and other government interventions in market health
- Model decay and how to best deal with it
- The design structure of Amplitude Capital’s Programs
- Market dynamics and where the Amplitude programs trade
- Differing philosophies: market specific models vs. models for all markets
- Comparing mean reversion models (counter trend models) vs. trend following models
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU14: “You’re going to make a lot of money doing this…” ft. Jerry Parker – 2of2
Today we will continue our conversation with Jerry Parker the founder of Chesapeake Capital and widely known as the most successful Turtle ever.
After wrapping up his position with Richard J. Dennis as a famous “Turtle,” he went on to start his own asset management firm, Chesapeake Capital Corporation.
In this episode we discuss the evolving CTA industry and the story of Chesapeake. It’s a powerful story from one of the most successful people in the industry. We really hope you enjoy it.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How the research and complexity of systems has a backwards effect to making money
- Challenges with entering stock markets with CTA strategies
- Why counting the trades and analyzing sample size is what most investors forget to ask when seeking fund managers
- Where the CTA managers have failed investors
- How Jerry Parker handles emotions during drawdowns
- Why markets have changed so that longer term focus has proven more successful
- Learn about the philosophy of “The Markets are the Heroes”
- Important lessons from a long, successful career in the CTA industry
- What is it that keeps investors from Turtle CTAs and choose larger financial organizations
- Why we see a skewed distribution towards profitability of long side trades and short side trades
- The key legacy traits left behind by the Turtles and if the experiment could be replicated now
- Why Jerry Parker’s contribution to the CTA space will be that he sticks with the plan and be the last one going down with the trend following ship
- Lessons for upcoming CTA managers from Jerry Parker
- Debunking trading cliches like, “you never go broke taking a profit” and “exits are more important than entries”
- Personal habits that have contributed to Jerry Parker’s success
- How Jerry Parker would start if he were to start all over again
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Ray Dalio – Bridgewater Capital
- Learn about Jerry Parker’s Acting “Career” on his IMDB page
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry Parker on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU13: Lessons From the Most Successful Turtle of All-Time ft. Jerry Parker – 1of2
Imagine you found an advertisement in the newspaper offering a position with a one sentence application process.
Would you take it?
What if it was for a position where you would learn a proprietary trading system in which you would trade solely for owner of the firm?
What if that man was Richard Dennis?
Our next guest took that position in 1983 and it changed his life forever, for the better. He found himself with what was to become a famous title, a Turtle. He was given the opportunity to manage a million dollar account with specific rules to follow. Rules that he would learn to love and perfect.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About the Turtles and how the unique experiment grew into the Managed Futures/CTA Industry
- How Wall Street Leaks inspired Jerry into understanding the industry
- How Jerry encountered trend following for the first time
- The One Sentence culture in Richard J. Dennis’s office
- How to excel at unprecedented tests from leading traders
- What it was like moving to Chicago to train as a Turtle
- What the Turtle training was like and the mindset provided in the training
- The most challenging thing about Trend Following when Jerry started with Richard Dennis
- About the transition from Turtle Trading to starting his own organization, Chesapeake Capital in 1998
- The evolution of Chesapeake’s strategy from day one after leaving Richard Dennis’s program
- The early focus on diversification and adding new markets
- Issues with trying to improve the original Richard Dennis
- The shift in investor expectations with the growth of institutional investment organizations while operating on of the largest CTA firms in the industry
- Why it’s best to take an optimal loss rather than a small loss
- On the meaningfulness of track records and what else investors should be encouraged to explore when choosing an investment management decision
-----
The advertisement Jerry responded to in 1983:
Richard J. Dennis and CD commodities is accepting applications for the position of Commodity Future Trader to expand his established group of traders. Mr. Dennis and his associate will train a small group of applicants in his proprietary trading concepts. Successful candidates will then trade solely for Mr. Dennis. They will not be allowed to trade futures for themselves or others. Traders will be paid a percentage of their trading profits and will be allowed a small draw. Prior experience will be considered, but is not necessary. Applicants should send a brief resume with one sentence giving their reason for applying.
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- The Barefoot Trader (Article about Richard Dennis in Wall Street Journal)
- Learn more about Richard J. Dennis the founder of the Turtle program
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry Parker on Twitter.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU12: The Philosophy, Habits and Personal Traits Required to Excel in the Hedge Fund Industry ft. Mathias Bucher of AllMountainCapital – 2of2
Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged. In this episode we continue our conversation with Dr. Mathias Bucher the Co-Founder of AllMountainCapital.
In this episode we go deep in the philosophy, habits and personal traits required to excel in the hedge fund industry.
It’s a pleasure to have you here and we hope you enjoy the episode.
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- About Stop Loss, Risk Management and overall Exit Strategies
- How the current drawdown is effecting current testing and research at AllMountainCapital
- How Mathias takes the stress of drawdowns and turns it into creative power
- The research cycles in the program and the company as a whole at AllMountain
- An example of a research idea developed and how it was implemented
- Current research interests in business development and market positioning as a CTA
- Why Dr. Mathias Bucher and Dr. Tilman Keese base their business in Wollerau rather than a major financial hub
- The threats and challenges involved in growing a young CTA firm
- Dr. Mathias Bucher’s perception on why the CTA industry excellence seems to be shifting to Europe
- Learn about the concept of the Industrialization of the Global Financial System
- The human traits needed to strive in the CTA industry
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Larry Hite and ISAM
- Watch another interview with Dr. Mathias Bucher on Opalesque TV
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
TTU11: Lessons From a Highly Educated Founder & Fund Manager ft. Mathias Bucher of AllMountainCapital – 1of2
Our next show provides you with the opportunity to learn from a highly educated founder and fund manager.
He Studied Economics at the Luzon Universidad de Carlos III de Madrid. He went on to earn a PhD in Quantitative Finance in Evolutionary Finance at University of Zurich. Upon graduating he agreed to a research position with Zurich Capital Bank.
Horizon21 made an offer to have Mathias and his business partner Dr. Tilman Keese build a systematic trading program. In 2010 they left Horizon21 to go out as entrepreneurs with AllMountainCapital.
Please give a warm welcome to, Dr. Mathias Bucher.
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The story of founding AllMountainCapital and how much AUM they currently manage
- How they outsource all non-core aspects of the business so they can focus on Research, Trading & Client services
- On the changes in the CTA industry from 2007 to the presentWhy central bank actions are correlated with a drop in volatility since 2009
- The nature of the AllMountain trading model and how it has coped during challenging times
- About the Modules that make up the AllMountain trading program
- Sectors and markets that AllMountain trade
- How their different system works and why they use it the way they do
- How they quantify trend strength in a market
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Larry Hite and ISAM
- Watch another interview with Dr. Mathias Bucher on Opalesque TV
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
TTU10: The Fairest Fee Structure in the Industry ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital Management – 2of2
What are you going to do to differentiate yourself from everyone else in the industry?
That’s the question Marty Bergin would ask the next guest on Top Traders Unplugged.
Welcome back for the second part of our interview with, Marty Bergin.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How trade decisions are generated and executed at DUNN Capital Management
- The way Marty and DUNN manage the emotional challenges of trend following
- Why many CTA firms are giving allocations to long equities and the results of that decision
- How significant drawdowns help to make firms stronger
- DUNN Capital Management’s approach to research
- How DUNN Capital identifies and reacts to issues with external/strategic alliance situations
- Portfolio development and decision-making at DUNN Capital
- On the importance for personal ownership in a CTA firm
- Learn about Michael Covel’s interview with Harry Markowitz
- The importance (or lack of) of being located in a large financial hub
- DUNN Capital’s investor focused fee structure
- Why European CTA’s seem to be out growing the American firms
- What does it take to become a great CTA in today’s environment
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about DUNN Capital
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU09: 40+ Years of Trading & Still Making NEW Highs ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest is a partner in a firm that has enjoyed 40+ years of trading success with a 35+ year continues track record of their WMA program.
The track record of the organization, DUNN Capital Management, is world-class. The legendary Bill Dunn offered partnership to our next guest and he replied, “I’m happy with where I am.” Bill’s response will make you laugh.
Please enjoy my conversation with, Marty Bergin.
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The Story of DUNN Capital and the Evolution of the firm
- How Marty began working with the firm and how he became a partner
- The company culture of DUNN Capital and why it’s so important to their success
- An overview of the DUNN WMA program
- How the Value At Risk (VAR) approach separates DUNN Capital from other CTAs
- Why DUNN Capital manages all tasks in-house
- About the 40 year+ track record of DUNN Capital
- The big research upgrades taking place in 2006
- About the change to using two separate "Trend Following Models"
- About the adaptive risk profile (ARP)
- DUNN’s approach to diversification across sectors (for example; 23% in agriculture and 13% currency allocation)
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about DUNN Capital’s methodologies and awards.
- Q&A with Bill Dunn
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Learn more about DUNN Capital
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
TTU08: Key Traits to Success in the CTA Industry ft. Martin Estlander of Estlander & Partners – 2of2
Today we rejoin the conversation with Martin Estlander the Founder and CEO of Estlander & Partners. If you missed the first part, feel free to listen to it here.
In this episode we explore the evolution of the CTA industry, the skills required to run a successful business and finally the fun, less known facts of Martin’s life outside of trading.
Welcome to the second part of our conversations with Martin Estlander.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The best rule of thumb to visualize risk in a traditional CTA portfolio
- What Martin has learned from being in drawdowns and the difference between drawdowns before and after 2009
- The effect of volatility in the markets and how this impact CTA performance
- How Martin Estlander manages the emotional roller coaster
- Research processes and research cycles at Estlander & Partners
- How to identify and address systems that were working but now aren’t
- The biggest challenge for Estlander & Partners going forward
- What are investors not asking that they should be asking when choosing a CTA
- Where the misunderstandings can happen for investors when trying to understand the CTA industry
- How to become better at communicating with investors
- Martin’s key traits to success in the CTA industry
- Personal habits that have contributed to the success of Martin Estlander
- How Martin manages failures and improves from them
- The things Martin would do differently if he started over today
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about Commodities Corporation, the company behind some of the all-time great traders
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Estlander & Partners Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU07: Inside Scandinavia’s Longest Running CTA Firm ft. Martin Estlander of Estlander & Partners – 1of2
Estlander & Partners – The Oldest CTA firm in Scandinavia and one of the Longest Running CTA firms in the World.
Thank you for listening to my conversation with its founder Martin Estlander.
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Martin got involved in the CTA Industry
- The Evolution of Estlander & Partners and Where They are Today
- Founding of an options trading business in Frankfurt in 1991
- About the inspiring time in which he was part of the Commodities Corp. team until 1998 when Goldman Sachs came in and bought CC
- About Jan Haraldsson’s Alpha Trend Program and how they recently opened the Program for external investors
- The recreational activities that support Martin’s trading philosophy. Skiing, Tennis, Sailing and Meditation
- An overview of the Main Programs Estlander & Partners run today – Alpha Trend, Freedom, Global Markets & Presto
- The business organization of a modern day CTA firm – What is “in-house” and what is outsourced
- How volatility is perceived in the Estlander & Partners portfolio
- The structure of the Alpha Trend Program and why it is designed to trade 74 different instruments and how they mix together
- How Alpha Trend’s pattern recognition differs from the traditional moving average crossover or price breakout
- Whether Alpha Trend is Intra-day, End-of-Day… or both
- What Alpha Trends’ models are designed to capture
- How Alpha Trend manages stop loss and stop profits when entering a new market
- Particularly important key performance drivers of Alpha Trend
- The human intervention required to run the Alpha Trend model
- How Martin Estlander defines risk
- Achilles Risk and how Alpha Trend manages for it
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Learn about Commodities Corporation, the company behind some of the all-time great traders
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Estlander & Partners Linkedin.
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
TTU06: Why Trend Following Systems Make Money Over Time ft. Tushar Chande – 2of2
We’re back with the second part of our conversation with the Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. In this episode we discuss the details of Managing Equity Curves, Trade Length in CTA systems and how Rho achieves to get the optimal position size when entering new trades.
Thank you for visiting, now let’s continue the interview with Tushar Chande.
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How Rho creates for algorithms to decide the size of a new position
- The difference between the models in terms of trade length
- The trade frequency Rho Asset Management
- About the design philosophy in creating the profile of its Altius Program
- Discussing the research cycle and the research reviews
- Major findings that led to the creation of the Altius Program
- Why trend following systems make money over time
- How the CTA strategies will overcome challenges in the future
- The main thing investors should take away as a benefit of investing with CTAs
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
TTU05: What You Must Do To Survive In the CTA Business ft. Tushar Chande – 1of2
On today’s show I am talking to Tushar Chande, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. Tushar is also the author of a number of books on the topic of how to design rule based trading systems as well as having been actively trading these systems for more than 20 years.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Why the random nature of the markets attracted Tushar to develop systems for trading these markets
- Background information on Rho Asset Management and it’s philosophy
- How Tushar utilizes behaviors of discretionary traders to make estimates of conviction about their individual trades
- How Rho has designed it’s Altius Program to offer meaningful protection when equity markets go down
- What to be aware of when exploring an Asset Manager’s performance over a 20 year period
- Offense/Defense Ratio, What it means and How to use it to Measure the quality of systems design
- How Rho’s models have been designed in order to achieve the overall objective of the Program
- What Trend Following Indicators are used for and why
- Exploring the volatility of the equity curve
- The input data needed to run the Altius Program, the time it takes and when they run the model
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Beyond Technical Analysis by Dr. Tushar Chande
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU04: What it Takes to Become a Great Trader ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 2of2
In this episode we continue our conversation with the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management and discuss the aspects of what makes his rule based asset management style so successful.
Enjoy the second part of my conversation with, Mike Dever.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Continuing the Conversation around why Trend Following can be more difficult
- Describing Disparate Return Drivers
- How Brandywine Assets Management actually implements the decisions of their trading model
- Why Position Sizing and Risk Management Principles are Everything
- How position sizes are managed across various Return Drivers
- Why Sharpe Ratio is a meaningless measure on it’s own. It doesn’t give you any idea on predictability of returns.
- The professional traders approach to the emotional challenges of drawdown.
- Managing regulation challenges
- The environment of marketing trend following strategies to investors
- What it takes to become a great trader today
- Who Mike started out aspiring to be like
- If Mike has any personal habits that contribute to his success
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Jackass Investing by Mike Dever
- Learn about Dick Donchian the Grandfather of Trend Following
- Learn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood Foundation
- Learn about John W. Henry
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Dever on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU03 How To Get Predictable Returns ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 1of2
On today’s show I am talking to Mike Dever, the Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management. Mike is a Divergent Thinking Systematic Investment Manager and Author of the best selling book “Jackass Investing”. Mike has been trading for almost 4 decades and shares a wealth of insight to how he has stayed successful and how his trading approach and research has stayed current in an ever changing financial landscape.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The Evolution of Mike’s Trading
- How Mike almost got in to business with Richard Donchian
- How they developed a systematic trading model in the 1980s
- How Mike met and invested with Paul Tudor Jones, John W. Henry and was the first outside investor in Transtrend
- How Mike went from being a discretionary trader to become fully systematic when launching the Benchmark Program, and Why
- About the experience of running the Brandywine Benchmark Program in in the ‘90s
- How Mike discovered the importance of Portfolio Allocation in the 1980s
- The Story of Developing the Predictive Diversification Portfolio Allocation Model
- The Entrepreneurial Storm that Kept Mike away from Trading and Brandywine for Years
- The story of developing the Brandywine Symphony Program
- How many people it takes to run a system with more than 1,000 strategy/market combinations
- Exploring the track record of Brandywine Symphony Program
- Why one should avoid making decisions based on single return drivers
- 5 Themes in Brandywine’s Asset Allocation Strategy: Fundamental, Sentiment, Event, Arbitrage and Alpha Hedge
- How Marginal Cost of Production Works as a Return Driver
- Are the strategies from the 1980’s just as effective today?
- What is directional arbitrage?
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Jackass Investing by Mike Dever
- Learn about Richard Donchian the Grandfather of Trend Following
- Learn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood Foundation
- Learn about John W. Henry
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mike Dever on Linkedin.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU02: Why The Game of Picking Sectors is a Fool’s Errand ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 2of2
Welcome back to our conversation with Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners.
In this interview we discuss the history of Sunrise Capital Partners, the current evolution in their financial product line and the inner workings of what it takes to make it as a successful trading organization in the ever changing market conditions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- Exploring the design structure of the Sunrise Evolution program: Quadrant A, B, C and D and how they play together
- Detailed examples of how trading models can be different.
- How trade implementation works with complex systems like these
- About the Volume of trading the Sunrise Capital does each day
- Why the game of picking sectors is a fools errand
- Strategies for dealing with the emotional weight of drawdowns
- Sunrise Capital Management’s approach to research
- The traits and what it takes to become a great CTA
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on LinkedIn.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU01: Are Research Ideas Overrated? ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 1of2
Sunrise Capital was the first CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) ever.
The company has evolved considerably since its inception in the 1970s.
Today on the show, Jason Gerlach, the Chief Executive Officer at Sunrise Capital joins us to discuss the history of the company and about the evolution of their trading strategy over nearly 4 decades. Sunrise has achieved astounding results over the lifetime of the company and Jason provides unique insights to the inner workings of Sunrise.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- The story of Sunrise Capitals founding in the early 1970s
- Rick Slaughter (Sunrise’s Chief Researcher) founded Commodity Monitors – the First Hedge Fund/CTA firm ever launched
- Jack Forest (Sunrise Commodities) and Gary Davis (Cresta Commodities) – The doctors trading outside the hospital
- How the three pioneers of the CTA/Commodity Trading Industry came together to form Sunrise Capital Partners in the mid 90’s
- How Jason was brought on into the firm and developed a succession plan for the business
- The unexpected story of how Jason “the Attorney” turned into Jason “the Systematic Trading Guy”
- What Sunrise Capital Partners offer today?
- How does one structure a CTA firm like Sunrise, what functions and how do you manage them?
- The role of outsourcing in the day-to-day operations of Sunrise Capital Partners
- What Sunrise discovered in the early 00’s which indicated to them a decay in long-term trend following and how they responded
-----
Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Download the article Niels mentioned: Fallacies to Avoid When Selecting a CTA
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jason on LinkedIn.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Podcasten Top Traders Unplugged är skapad av Niels Kaastrup-Larsen. Podcastens innehåll och bilderna på den här sidan hämtas med hjälp av det offentliga podcastflödet (RSS).
En liten tjänst av I'm With Friends. Finns även på engelska.