GM07: The father of the Yield-Curve indicator ft. Campbell Harvey
In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago.
Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S., he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting.
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Topics Discussed in this Episode:
- The ‘Great Compression’ rather than another Great Depression
- How the Yield Curve indicator was signalling a mild recession even before the Corona crisis
- Why politician’s would rather have inflation than raise taxes
- How 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 were completely unaware of the risk of pandemics
- Why Bitcoin failed as a hedge in its first ever recession
- Why the US Dollar’s days as a world reserve currency are numbered
- Why central banks may now feel incentivised to create their own digital currencies
- Technology and how it’s going to unleash opportunities to transact value & human capital on a scale never seen before
- Cam’s somewhat rare, positive outlook for the future
- Why peer to peer transactions and lending will be the way forward
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