Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Clearer Thinking is a podcast about ideas that truly matter. If you enjoy learning about powerful, practical concepts and frameworks, wish you had more deep, intellectual conversations in your life, or are looking for non-BS self-improvement, then we think you’ll love this podcast! Each week we invite a brilliant guest to bring four important ideas to discuss for an in-depth conversation. Topics include psychology, society, behavior change, philosophy, science, artificial intelligence, math, economics, self-help, mental health, and technology. We focus on ideas that can be applied right now to make your life better or to help you better understand yourself and the world, aiming to teach you the best mental tools to enhance your learning, self-improvement efforts, and decision-making. • We take on important, thorny questions like: • What’s the best way to help a friend or loved one going through a difficult time? How can we make our worldviews more accurate? How can we hone the accuracy of our thinking? What are the advantages of using our ”gut” to make decisions? And when should we expect careful, analytical reflection to be more effective? Why do societies sometimes collapse? And what can we do to reduce the chance that ours collapses? Why is the world today so much worse than it could be? And what can we do to make it better? What are the good and bad parts of tradition? And are there more meaningful and ethical ways of carrying out important rituals, such as honoring the dead? How can we move beyond zero-sum, adversarial negotiations and create more positive-sum interactions?
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The rival philosophies to Stoicism that you've never heard about (with Greg Lopez)
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Do we still have a lot to learn from ancient Greco-Roman philosophies? What is telos? What is ataraxia? What is "dark" Stoicism? What is the "resilient asshole" problem? What is (or what has) value according to Stoicism? What are the similarities and differences between Stoicism and Buddhism? Why might someone prefer a life "philosophy" over a set of life "hacks"? What is good? And how do you know? How could you know if you potentially adopted the wrong life philosophy? What value can modern humans find in Stoicism, Epicureanism, Pyrrhonism, and Cyrenaicism?
Gregory Lopez has been practicing Stoicism for over a decade and Buddhism a bit longer. He is co-author of A Handbook for New Stoics and Beyond Stoicism. He is also the founder of the New York City Stoics, co-founder of The Stoic Fellowship, a member of the Modern Stoicism team, and a faculty member of Stoa Nova. Additionally, he co-facilitates Stoic Camp New York annually with Massimo Pigliucci. You can find out more and contact him at his website, greglopez.me.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Igor Scaldini — Marketing Consultant
Music
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What can we all agree on? (with Bradley Tusk)
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In times of such extreme political polarization, where can we find common ground? Should we require disclosure of AI authorship? Should AI companies be required to provide fingerprinting tools that can identify when something has been generated by one of their models? Should movie theaters be required to report when movies actually start? Should members of Congress be prohibited from insider trading? Should gerrymandering be outlawed? Should there be age limits on political office? Should we provide free school meals nation-wide? What roadblocks stand in the way of people being able to vote on their phones? What's Spencer's formula for productivity? Which of the productivity factors do most people fail to take into account? What are some "doubly-rewarding" activities? Is altruism a harmful idea? What are people worst at predicting?
Bradley Tusk is a venture capitalist, political strategist, philanthropist, and writer. He is the CEO and co-founder of Tusk Ventures, the world's first venture capital fund that invests solely in early stage startups in highly regulated industries, and the founder of political consulting firm Tusk Strategies. Bradley's family foundation is funding and leading the national campaign to bring mobile voting to U.S. elections and also has run anti-hunger campaigns in 24 different states, helping to feed over 13 million people. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. Before Vote With Your Phone, Bradley authored The Fixer: My Adventures Saving Startups From Death by Politics and Obvious in Hindsight. He hosts a podcast called Firewall about the intersection of tech and politics, and recently opened an independent bookstore, P&T Knitwear, on Manhattan's Lower East Side. In his earlier career, Bradley served as campaign manager for Mike Bloomberg's 2009 mayoral race, as Deputy Governor of Illinois, overseeing the state's budget, operations, legislation, policy, and communications, as communications director for US Senator Chuck Schumer, and as Uber's first political advisor. Connect with Bradley on Substack and LinkedIn.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Igor Scaldini — Marketing Consultant
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Shamanism, witchcraft, and the power of narrative (with Manvir Singh)
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What do westerners misunderstand about "tribal" cultures? How does justice in very small communities differ from justice in large nation-states? Why do some cultures have bride prices (i.e., groom's family pays bride's family) and others have dowries (i.e., bride's family pays groom's family)? How do cultures differ with respect to the body parts they sexualize? How many cultures across time have used psychedelics? Do all religions make moral demands? How do religions change as the people who practice them grow in number? How strong is the link between religious belief and individual behavior? To what extent are anthropologists conscious of their own behaviors and biases? Why do certain types of false beliefs persist for so long? How do shamanism and witchcraft differ? Aside from their official roles, what de facto roles do shamans play in their communities? What personality traits and/or mental health conditions are linked to wanting to become a shaman? Are any taboos universal across all human cultures? Why are taboos against incest and cannibilism so common? What is the value of anthropology?
Manvir Singh is an anthropologist at the University of California, Davis and a regular contributor to The New Yorker, where he writes about cognitive science, evolution, and cultural diversity. He studies complex cultural traditions that reliably emerge across societies, including dance songs, lullabies, hero stories, shamanism, and institutions of justice. He graduated with a PhD from Harvard University in 2020 and, since 2014, has conducted ethnographic fieldwork with Mentawai communities on Siberut Island, Indonesia. He is the author of Shamanism: The Timeless Religion (2025). Follow him on Twitter / X at @mnvrsngh or @manvir on Bluesky, or learn more about him on his website, manvir.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Igor Scaldini — Marketing Consultant
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Which Spencer is real? Spencer vs. his AI clone
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Can you tell which is the real Spencer and which is his AI clone? How irrational are people really? What do most people misunderstand about psychology? What are the best tools to use to accomplish various societal goals? How good are we at predicting the future? Why do we have such a hard time overcoming our tribal instincts in politics? How many people get into politics for narcissistic reasons? What systems could be put in place to help prevent government corruption? Do we have free will? Are numbers real? Is beauty real? What are some things religious people might be right about?
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Igor Scaldini — Marketing Consultant
Music
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Too many mental health challenges and not enough psychiatrists (with Jacob Appel)
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How big is the current mental health crisis? What's causing it? What do we know about the age distribution of people suffering from mental health issues right now? Is the crisis just that more people are suffering from anxiety and depression, or is there an increase in other disorders as well? Why are psychiatrists seemingly very picky about which insurance policies they'll accept? What percent of hospital psychiatric patients are repeat visitors? What would an ideal mental health system look like? How effective are addiction detox programs? Why might suicide prevention programs backfire? Which disorders are associated with the highest risks of suicide? If a person attempts suicide but is saved, how likely are they to attempt it again? When is it better to see a psychologist than a psychiatrist and vice versa? What are some of the most exciting and most worrying parts of genetic medicine? How should we decide which diseases to study and which treatments to develop? What's an "invisible" victim? Is there any solution to the problem of invisible victimhood? How effective was the Affordable Care Act (AKA "Obamacare")? Are we collectively spending too much money on end-of-life care? How can medicine better incorporate preventive care? What is body integrity disorder? Why do we have such a hard time combating our biases relating to physical beauty? Should polygamy be morally and/or legally permissible? Should medical aid in dying (AKA "assisted suicide") be morally and/or legally permissible? Are doctors too willing to resuscitate dying patients?
Jacob M. Appel is currently Professor of Psychiatry and Medical Education at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, where he is Director of Ethics Education in Psychiatry, Associate Director of the Academy for Medicine and the Humanities, and Medical Director of the Mental Health Clinic at the East Harlem Health Outreach Program. Jacob is the author of five literary novels, ten short story collections, an essay collection, a cozy mystery, a thriller, two volumes of poems and a compendium of dilemmas in medical ethics. He is Vice President and Treasurer of the National Book Critics Circle, co-chair of the Group for the Advancement of Psychiatry’s Committee on Psychiatry & Law, and a Councilor of the New York County Psychiatric Society and of the American Academy of Psychiatry & Law. Learn more about him at his website, jacobmappel.com.
Further reading
- Jacob (2019 documentary)
- "They Decide Who Lives, Who Dies" by Shana Alexander
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Misinformation from all sides (with Brian Dunning)
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Why is misinformation a never-ending problem? What fraction of misinformation is intentionally manipulative? What's the difference between bullshit and other kinds of misinformation? What are the various kinds of beliefs we hold? How do the political left and right (at least in the US) differ in their production and consumption of misinformation? Have any conspiracy theories ever been proven right? Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? Why do people listen to Alex Jones? Was Nikola Tesla a fraud? Why does any of this matter? What do we know about UAPs / UFOs? What is the "Christmas tree problem"? Could an advanced human or alien civilization invent interstellar travel technology? What's something you're wrong about?
Brian Dunning is the host and producer of the Skeptoid podcast; the writer and presenter of the documentary films The UFO Movie THEY Don't Want You to See, Science Friction, and Principles of Curiosity; and the author of seven books such as Conspiracies Declassified (Simon & Schuster, 2018). He is a member of the National Association of Science Writers. Learn more about him on his website, briandunning.com.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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A conversation with a rigid perfectionist who has OCPD (with Darryl Rossignol)
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What is obsessive compulsive personality disorder (OCPD), and how does it compare to obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD)? Why is it relatively prevalent and yet also relatively unheard-of? What can people with OCPD do well? What does OCPD feel like from the inside? Which fictional characters might have OCPD? How do people with OCPD typically engage with religion? How can you have better relationships with people in your life who have OCPD? What should you do if you think you or someone you know might have OCPD? What are some treatments for it that actually work?
After struggling with the traits and symptoms of OCPD since childhood, Darryl Rossignol spent a decade deconstructing his own personality disorder and putting the pieces back together. In 2015, he launched a YouTube channel to document his journey. Within a few years, the project had reached tens of thousands of people in need. By 2022, the need for more was clear. With the assistance of some of the top OCPD mental health professionals, he was able to launch The OCPD Foundation. This foundation is now dedicated to assisting those with OCPD to successfully find the help that they need. Watch Darryl's videos on YouTube, learn more about OCPD at ocpd.org, or email Darryl at darryl@ocpd.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Igor Scaldini — Marketing Consultant
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Simple and effective methods for helping people that nonprofits often ignore (with Kanika Bahl)
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Why do nonprofits often ignore the simplest, most obvious solutions for helping the world? Why do some problems get a lot of attention while others — often of equal or greater importance — go completely unaddressed? Why is behavior change so hard? When should or shouldn't NGOs collaborate with governments? Why are deworming effects not as immediately noticeable as might be expected? What sorts of incentive structures surround charities? How can NGOs and nonprofits gain the financial flexibility necessary to make better strategic bets and more principled decisions? What's more important for drawing in donors: stories or statistics? How do (or should) nonprofits measure the long-term economic effects on individuals of their interventions? How can you support the organizations and interventions mentioned in this episode?
Kanika Bahl is CEO and President of Evidence Action where she has been on the Board since 2015. She is also a Trustee of Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust. Previously she served as Managing Director at Results for Development (R4D), where she established and led the Market Dynamics practice. The practice has increased access to products such as childhood pneumonia treatments and malaria bed nets for millions of individuals in Africa and Asia. Prior to R4D, Kanika served as an Executive Vice President at the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) where she established greenfield operations in 17 African countries. She launched and led a $400M, 33-country public-private facility focused on driving access to new HIV/AIDS drugs and diagnostics. She received her MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business and her BA in Mathematical Economics from Rice University. Find out more about the work of Evidence Action at evidenceaction.org, email them at info@evidenceaction.org, or connect with them on social media at @evidenceaction.
Further reading
Sponsor ✨
This episode is sponsored by Animal Charity Evaluators.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Igor Scaldini — Marketing Consultant
Music
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How to unleash student potential in education (with Jack Despain Zhou)
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How bad are things in US education? Why does it seem that educational progress has stagnated? What parts of the US education system should be reformed? Is it better to group students by skill level or by age? How useful are standardized tests? Why is there so commonly a disconnect between what cognitive science tells us about how people learn and the practices that are actually implemented in classrooms? How much do we know about what it's like in schools today? What did the No Child Left Behind act get wrong? What should educational incentive structures look like? Is individual student progress constrained more by interest or intelligence? In the grand scheme of things, how big of a problem is classroom management? What happened in the FAA hiring scandal? Did it increase the risks associated with flying? How could the FAA have better achieved its own ends?
Jack Despain Zhou, also known online as Tracing Woodgrains, is the cofounder of the Center for Educational Progress, a nonprofit focused on reorienting education around a culture of excellence. Elsewhere, he is known for his coverage of institutional crises and online history, particularly the FAA's hiring scandal and Wikipedia abuse, and for cultural and political commentary from an ex-Mormon centrist perspective. He previously helped produce Blocked and Reported, a podcast about internet nonsense. He can be found on Substack as Tracing Woodgrains or on Twitter as @tracewoodgrains.
Further reading
Sponsor ✨
This episode is sponsored by Animal Charity Evaluators.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Music
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How f***ed is psychology? (with Adam Mastroianni)
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Is the bar for what counts as new knowledge higher in psychology than in other scientific fields? Why did the field of psychology formally start centuries later than other scientific fields? Why is it so hard to make progress in psychology? How useful are social science "mega-studies"? What actually helps people stick to habits? What do scientists often get wrong about the philosophy of science? What have social scientists learned so far from the replication crisis? And how does that compare to what they should perhaps have been learning from it? Why is so much meaningless, useless psych research still being done? How can scientists communicate about their work more effectively? When might a blog be a better outlet than an academic journal for a scientific report? Is there a tension in science communication between honesty and explicability? What are the pros and cons of peer review?
Adam Mastroianni is a psychologist and metascientist who writes the popular blog Experimental History. He got his PhD in 2021 and then left academia to publish research directly to the public, like a crazy person. Learn more about him at his website, experimental-history.com.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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A conversation with a multiple-time survivor of sexual abuse
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Why might being the victim of sexual abuse increase the likelihood of being re-victimized? What warning signs, if any, might an abuser exhibit before becoming abusive? How might trauma differ when caused by someone the victim knows versus by someone who is a stranger to them? Why might victims choose to continue interacting with their abusers after receiving abuse? Why might trauma even cause a person to bond with their abuser? What is "affirmative" consent? Which states in the US recognize affirmative consent as a meaningful legal concept? What forms of refusal to engage in sexual activities are legally defensible? Why might victims choose to pursue legal recourse or not? What percent of victims pursue legal recourse? What sorts of things drive abusers to abuse others? Is it mere lust, or are there other factors? How often do abusers apologize or correct their behavior? How can you help a friend who has experienced sexual abuse?
Further reading
- "Why Some Sexual Assault Victims Are Revictimized", by Wendy L. Patrick | Psychology Today
- "Why Some Rape Victims Continue to Date Their Rapist", by Wendy L. Patrick | Psychology Today
- "I Kept Talking to My Rapists", by Jeannie Vanasco | The Atlantic
- "Why am I still attracted to someone who assaulted me?" | Columbia Health
- "Why I continued sleeping with my rapist", by Sian Ferguson | news.com.au
- "Are sexual abuse victims being diagnosed with a mental disorder they don't have?", by Alexandra Shimo | The Guardian
- "Briefing on ‘Personality Disorder’ and the labelling of survivors of abuse and violence", by Platfform
- "Female soldiers raped by colleagues were ‘misdiagnosed’ with personality disorder", by Danielle Sheridan | The Telegraph
- "Abuse Survivors Can Be Revictimized — Here’s What You Should Know", by Lori Lawrenz | Healthline
- "Sexual Revictimization", by National Sexual Violence Resource Center
- "I fell in love with my rapist. What should I do?" | Quora
- "Why do I still love him after he raped me?" | Quora
- "Why did I go back to my rapist and had sex with him? Was it because I was ashamed, or I wasn't thinking straight?" | Quora
- "I am in love with my rapist" by u/Throwaway97547997 | Reddit
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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A story can change the world (with Elizabeth Cox)
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How important is story-telling for changing the world? What counts as a story? How closely should persuasive stories conform to the formula of "the hero's journey"? How much time do we spend on average thinking about stories? How can raw data be shaped into a story that's both true and compelling? What are some good examples of stories that have changed the world for the better? When, if ever, do scare tactics work? Can a bad guy with a story only be stopped by a good guy with a story? Why are there so many valid ways of understanding and treating depression? Why are anxiety and depression always so closely linked (if they're not just the same thing)? Is it true that most depression treatments will make most people feel worse before they begin to feel better? How far along are we in the development of artificial wombs? Why might some people be resistant to the usage or even to the development of artificial wombs?
Elizabeth Cox is the founder of Should We Studio, an independent production company dedicated to projects that raise awareness of the most important issues shaping the future, where she wrote and directed the award-winning animated series Ada. Before that, she was the Senior Editorial Producer at TED-Ed, where she wrote and edited the scripts for over 200 educational animated videos on all sorts of subjects which have hundreds of millions of views and more than 10,000 years of watch time. Learn more about her at her website, elizdcox.com, or connect with her on LinkedIn.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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The heavy price you'll have to pay to have a healthy relationship (with David Burns)
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What are the main causes of problems in romantic relationships? What are the behaviors and patterns that lead to healthy relationships? What is the price of a good relationship? Are dark triad traits (i.e., psychopathy / sociopathy, Narcissism, and Machiavellianism) treatable? What is outcome resistance? What is process resistance? How can a person overcome their own resistance to healthy change? When are labels useful? Do thoughts lead to emotions? Or do emotions lead to thoughts? Or do they both lead to each other? How should psychological trauma be treated? What are the limits of cognitive therapy?
David Burns is Adjunct Clinical Professor Emeritus of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at the Stanford University School of Medicine, where he is involved in research and teaching. He has previously served as Acting Chief of Psychiatry at the Presbyterian / University of Pennsylvania Medical Center (1988) and Visiting Scholar at the Harvard Medical School (1998), and is certified by the National Board of Psychiatry and Neurology. He has received numerous awards, including the A. E. Bennett Award for his research on brain chemistry, the Distinguished Contribution to Psychology through the Media Award, and the Outstanding Contributions Award from the National Association of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapists. He has been named Teacher of the Year three times from the class of graduating residents at Stanford University School of Medicine, and feels especially proud of this award. In addition to his academic research, Dr. Burns has written a number of popular books on mood and relationship problems. His best-selling book, Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy, has sold over 4 million copies in the United States, and many more worldwide. When he is not crunching statistics for his research, he can be found teaching his famous Tuesday evening psychotherapy training group for Stanford students and community clinicians, or giving workshops for mental health professionals throughout the United States and Canada. Learn more about him at feelinggood.com, follow his channel on YouTube, or check out the Feeling Great app.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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The skills every adult human should have (with Raffi Grinberg)
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What life skills do most people fail to learn before adulthood? Why does this failure occur? What should constructive disagreement look like? When might it be impossible to overcome a disagreement? How can you appease your (or someone else's) "elephant"? What do many people get wrong about dating? How much exploration is necessary to figure out what kind of person is compatible with you romantically? Which basic financial skills do many adults lack? What are the best ways to invest? What is your personal "superpower"? Should schools strive to make kids well-rounded (as opposed to highly specialized)? How can you find job opportunities more effectively? How can you figure out what to do with your life? What stages of development do adults go through? What does healthy negotation look like? How much time should you spend consuming information versus processing it? How can you benefit from rejection? Whom should you be trying to impress?
Raffi Grinberg is a business leader, author, and educator based in Washington, D.C. He is the Executive Director of Dialog and cofounder of The Constructive Dialogue Institute (with Jonathan Haidt), both multimillion-dollar education organizations that bring people together for conversations. He graduated with honors from Princeton University and previously worked in management consulting at Bain & Company. He is the author of a mathematics textbook published by Princeton University Press. He also created and taught the popular Adulting 101 course at Boston College. Learn more about him at his website, raffigrinberg.com.
Further reading
- How to Be a Grown Up: The 14 Essential Skills You Didn’t Know You Needed (Until Just Now), by Raffi Grinberg
- "The Inner Ring", by C.S. Lewis
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Rethinking our assumptions about happiness (with Stephanie Harrison)
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What do most people get wrong about happiness? Why doesn't the happiness resulting from success last longer? Is it easier to "get ahead" today than it was 100 years ago? How are we trapped by our ideas of happiness? Does individualism help or hurt happiness? Where do hyper-individualistic messages come from (especially in the US)? How have those messages changed over the past several decades? How can people better open themselves up to help from friends and family? What is the "critical positivity ratio"? How might our understandings of "positive" and "negative" be skewed? What are "old" and "new" happiness? Is our "old" happiness linked to capitalism? What is the "empty" self? What are the differences between how men and women experience gender-normative pressures? Are younger generations more accepting of male emotionality? Is there — and should there be — such a thing as an ideal man or ideal woman? What does it really mean to "be who you are"? What do we owe to each other? What exactly is the opposite of "separateness"? Why do so many people have impostor syndrome?
Stephanie Harrison is the founder of The New Happy and the author of New Happy: Getting Happiness Right in a World That's Got It Wrong. You can learn more about her work by visiting thenewhappy.com or @newhappyco on social media.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Evidence-Based Medicine and its discontents (with Gordon Guyatt)
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How were decisions made about which treatments to trust before the advent of "evidence-based" medicine? How strong are biological arguments for or against various treatments? When did the Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM) movement begin? How did the EBM movement overcome initial resistance among medical professionals? What resources do doctors have at their disposals to find up-to-date information about treatment efficacies? Why is the pharmaceutical industry allowed such influence over information about treatments? What is the GRADE approach to EBM? What does EBM have to say about the role of patient preferences and values? How bad is being overweight? What are "surrogate" or "substitute" outcomes? How rigorous is the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)? How often do treatments suffer from a lack of high-quality evidence of an effect versus plenty of high-quality evidence of a lack of an effect? What's the state of evidence about the placebo effect? What are the most exciting current initiatives in EBM?
Gordon Guyatt is a McMaster University Distinguished Professor. His work has focused on Evidence-Based Medicine and promoting high-quality healthcare without financial barriers for all Canadians. His Order of Canada citation acknowledges both contributions. He has been honored as a Canadian Institute of Health Research Researcher of the Year and a member of the Canadian Medical Hall of Fame. Learn more about Gordon and his work at clarityresearch.ca.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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AI, US-China relations, and lessons from the OpenAI board (with Helen Toner)
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Is it useful to vote against a majority when you might lose political or social capital for doing so? What are the various perspectives on the US / China AI race? How close is the competition? How has AI been used in Ukraine? Should we work towards a global ban of autonomous weapons? And if so, how should we define "autonomous"? Is there any potential for the US and China to cooperate on AI? To what extent do government officials — especially senior policymakers — worry about AI? Which particular worries are on their minds? To what extent is the average person on the street worried about AI? What's going on with the semiconductor industry in Taiwan? How hard is it to get an AI model to "reason"? How could animal training be improved? Do most horses fear humans? How do we project ourselves onto the space around us?
Helen Toner is the Director of Strategy and Foundational Research Grants at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). She previously worked as a Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy, where she advised policymakers and grantmakers on AI policy and strategy. Between working at Open Philanthropy and joining CSET, Helen lived in Beijing, studying the Chinese AI ecosystem as a Research Affiliate of Oxford University's Center for the Governance of AI. Helen holds an MA in Security Studies from Georgetown, as well as a BSc in Chemical Engineering and a Diploma in Languages from the University of Melbourne. Follow her on Twitter at @hlntnr.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Getting a handle on your goals and big life changes (with Tee Barnett)
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What are the best things to do to help someone achieve their goals? What kind of person should see a personal coach? And when should they do so? What makes for a good personal coach? How do you know which coaches are legit given that they aren't certified like counselors? Can everyone benefit from meeting with a coach? How can you harness modernity to live the kind of life you want? In what ways do people treat themselves as resources? What are the most common causes of burnout? How high should our internal standards be? What should people be thinking about as they make large life changes? Should people always try to improve themselves? What are some challenges that are specific to leaders? How can people make more time for and focus better on less tangible challenges like assessing their vision and goals for the future? How can you resurrect seemingly dead parts of your inner life?
Tee Barnett is a Personal Strategist who has coached a variety of high-functioning leaders across several industries. He has also run coaching training programs and recently helped launch Supercycle, a personal and professional development community platform that brings an interdisciplinary approach to personal growth, including philosophy, phenomenology, natural sciences, sociology, etc. Learn more about him at his personal website, teebarnett.com, or Supercycle's website, supercycle.org; follow him on Twitter / X at @teebarnettsays; or email him at tee@supercycle.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Avoiding major investment mistakes (with Jim O'Shaughnessy)
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What are the biggest mistakes people make when investing? What's the best thing to do with extra savings? How can we overcome emotional biases that might negatively impact our investment strategies? What is "hyperbolic discounting"? How can you know when to pull your money out of an investment? How can journaling help with investing? Is it irrational to invest only in companies based in your country? What's the optimal mix of stocks and bonds? Are short-term bonds better than long-term bonds, or vice versa? How can you tell genuine growth from too much hype? How predictable is the stock market? If you find an investment strategy that works, should you tell others about it? What's the best way to cope with bubbles? Who should apply for ventures?
Jim O'Shaughnessy was in quantitative asset management for most of his career until selling his company, O'Shaughnessy Asset Management, to Franklin Templeton in 2021. In 2023, he formed O'Shaughnessy Ventures, which is engaged in book publishing, filmmaking, and partnering with podcasters, Substack writers, and other new media ventures. Their venture capital arm invests in companies that they think have winning business strategies in regards to what Jim calls "The Great Reshuffle". O'Shaughnessy Ventures also gives equity-free fellowships and grants ranging from $10,000 to $100,000. Learn more about Jim at O'Shaughnessy Ventures's website, osv.llc.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Creating a new city from scratch (with Erick Brimen)
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What does it take to start a new city, especially one designed to be a special economic zone (SEZ)? What are the advantages and disadvantages to having a private company as manager of a city? Should governments be profit-maximizing? Can people choose to live in one of the Zonas de Empleo y Desarrollo Económico (ZEDE) cities in Honduras while also opting out of its specific government services? What are some legitimate reasons governments should regulate businesses? Are medicines produced in SEZs safe? How do ZEDE investors make money? To what extent can (or should) a SEZ's laws override state and federal laws? What do the ZEDEs in Honduras look like right now? How many people live in them? Why has there been pushback against them? Are SEZs considered "political" projects? Can a SEZ take land from private owners? Is anyone allowed to move into a SEZ?
Erick Brimen is a finance professional, team leader, and serial entrepreneur who is passionate about investing in life-enhancing opportunities that further human flourishing. He has led Honduras Próspera Inc.'s ongoing development of the Próspera ZEDE free zone in Honduras, raising nearly $110 million to advance his vision of eliminating poverty through delivering free market governance as a service. Erick started his career in private banking, working at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. He later moved to investment banking as a mergers and acquisition sell-side advisor for AG Edwards & Sons (now Wells Fargo). After investment banking, Erick joined Ernst & Young's London consulting practice, where he advised buy-side private equity clients as they considered acquisition targets. Soon after, he was recruited by the Borealis Group to join as CFO of Latin American operations, leading the creation of multiple business units. When the time was right, Erick started his entrepreneurial career in the world of financial intermediation as a founder of ComparaMejor.com. In late 2013, Erick sold another of his tech companies to start NeWay Capital. NeWay Capital LLC is globally-focused and seeks to identify free zone opportunities with partner host countries throughout the world. As Chairman and CEO of NeWay Capital LLC's affiliate Honduras Próspera Inc., Erick is focused on replicating the success of Dubai, Hong Kong, and Singapore in a Honduran free zone located primarily on the beautiful island of Roatán. He has three young children with his wife, Colleen Brimen. He was born Venezuelan and is a U.S. Citizen by choice. Learn more about him at his website, erickbrimen.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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What's the most effective type of therapy? (with Matthew Smout)
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What is Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)? What are the "cognitive" and "behavioral" parts of CBT? What are some of its most common techniques? What are "negative core beliefs"? What does CBT have to say about situations in which problems come from a person's environment rather than from within the person's mind? What makes a particular belief or behavior "good"? How do we know how effective various psychotherapeutic treatments are? How much can we rely on meta-analyses about psychotherapy treatments? Is CBT the most evidence-based psychotherapy treatment? What are CBT's main competitors? Is CBT significantly better than its competitors in all respects, or are there situations in which other treatment types have a significant advantage? How can you figure out exactly what a therapist does when they list a dozen different treatment modalities on their website? Can all treatment modalities be similarly effective if they have the right set of core components? How do antidepressants compare in efficacy to CBT? When should one, the other, or both in conjunction be used to treat a patient?
Dr. Matthew Smout is a clinical psychologist in private practice and the Senior Clinic Supervisor of the University of South Australia Psychology Clinic, where he teaches and trains postgraduate students in clinical psychology. His research interests focus on psychotherapy, especially in making routine practice more effective. He has published on schema therapy, acceptance and commitment therapy, and the development of questionnaires for evaluating psychotherapy. Email him at matthew.smout@unisa.edu.au, or learn more about him at his website, drmatthewsmout.com.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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A conversation about Borderline Personality Disorder (with Kayla Spicer)
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What is Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD)? Why is it so stigmatized relative to other mental health issues? What does it mean to be the "favorite person" of someone with BPD? Can people with BPD have multiple favorite persons, or no favorite person at all? What is "splitting"? Why are people with BPD more prone to engage in risky, reckless, or impulsive behaviors? How might BPD overlap with the "dark triad" personality traits (i.e., machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy)? Is BPD more common among women? How should we treat people who may not meet the threshold for a particular mental illness diagnosis but who nevertheless exhibit some of the symptoms of that illness? How can partners form good relationships with people suffering from BPD? How can you help a person suffering from BPD in a moment of crisis? Why is Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT) the best treatment option for BPD? What does DBT teach? What are some DBT techniques that work especially well for people with BPD? What is "quiet" BPD? What is "emotional reasoning"? What should you do if you think you might have BPD?
Kayla Spicer is a Registered Psychotherapist in Ontario and an online educator specializing in Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD). With a Master's in Counseling Psychology, she combines clinical expertise and lived experience to create accessible learning resources for individuals, particularly women, who struggle with high sensitivity, perfectionism, and emotion regulation challenges. Through her YouTube channel and other online platforms, Kayla offers evidence-based strategies, practical tools, and empowering advice to guide people toward self-compassion and long-term well-being. To learn more, visit the YouTube channel called On the Line.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Could the placebo effect be bullshit? (with Literal Banana)
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Is the placebo effect bullshit? Are "open-label" placebos just as effective as "closed-label" placebos? How do placebos differ from dummies? Is the placebo effect just a kind of scientific-sounding "woo"? How does social priming differ from word priming? Why is it important in research to have both placebo and no-treatment groups? What is the Hawthorne effect? What is the John Henry effect? When is it useful to express effect sizes using Cohen's d? If there's not a placebo effect, then what's really going on in cases where it seems like there is one? Is meditation a kind of placebo treatment for mental states? How can researchers believe that people's mental states are important and yet that the placebo effect doesn't exist? What is stress-induced analgesia? Does the nocebo effect (if it exists) provide reason to think that the placebo effect exists? Where do psychosomatic effects fit into this picture? What have animal studies found about the placebo effect?
Literal Banana is literally a banana who became interested in human social science through trying to live among them. After escaping from a high-tech produce delivery start-up, she now lives among humans and attempts to understand them through their own sciences of themselves. Follow Literal Banana on Twitter at @literalbanana.
Further reading
- "A Case Against the Placebo Effect", by Literal Banana
- "Placebo interventions for all clinical conditions", by Asbjørn Hróbjartsson and Peter Gøtzsche
- "Tears", by Kevin Simler
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Making better decisions by thinking like an artist (with Elspeth Kirkman)
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What kinds of things really distort our ability to think clearly when making decisions? What is "psychological distance"? What is construal level theory? How can we intentionally increase or decrease psychological distance for ourselves or others who are making decisions? What are "decisionscapes"? When giving toddlers choices, we often artificially limit the number of available options to help smooth out the decision process and avoid decision paralysis. When might the imposition of this kind of artificial limitation be useful for adult decision-makers? What should we do with the productivity gains we've reaped (and will presumably continue to reap) from AI? Is it possible to show someone that you really care about them without making any kind of sacrifice? What has AI done to the value of art? Which individuals and companies currently own the means of digital production? How can we break free from algorithms that drive engagement by triggering negative emotions and promoting conflict? Is survivorship bias the ultimate cognitive bias? What are some lesser-known or lesser-used framing devices for making better decisions?
Elspeth Kirkman is the Chief Programmes Officer at Nesta, overseeing missions in early childhood development, obesity reduction, and net-zero emissions. She previously held senior roles at BIT, including establishing the company's North American office. Elspeth is the author of two books: Behavioral Insights (2020), co-written with Michael Hallsworth, and Decisionscape: How Thinking Like an Artist Can Improve Our Decision-Making (2024). Follow her on TikTok at @Karminker or on Bluesky at @karminker.bsky.social.
Further reading
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Are the culture wars harming science? (with Cremieux)
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Which of the world's hardest problems can be solved merely by gathering more data? Why are social problems harder to solve than biological problems? How should power between business owners and unions be balanced? Why do people so often misinterpret research results — sometimes even to the point of concluding exactly the opposite of what the results show? What heuristics should people use when reading research papers? How are culture wars affecting the reliability of research? Should there be any limits on what can be researched and published? When might left-leaning researchers actually end up causing harm to the groups whose causes they're trying to defend? How much does it matter that we know what sorts of traits are heritable? How important is IQ for predicting life outcomes? In what kinds of situations is skill more important than IQ, and vice versa? Is there value in knowing your own IQ?
Learn more about Cremieux at their website, cremieux.xyz.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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How can you learn more efficiently? (with Scott Young)
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What do schools do well and not so well? In what contexts is memorization most effective? What's the value in teaching something that will probably be forgotten by most students after graduation? How should educators balance time spent on building skills versus acquiring knowledge? Why do students so often fail to apply the skills learned in school (e.g., fractions, solving for unknown quantities, etc.) to problems encountered in everyday life? What is "transfer of learning"? What is educational "directness"? How can we learn languages more efficiently? How does review compare to other forms of study or exam prep? How can we forget less of what we read? Is it really true that "practice makes perfect"? How can we best set ourselves up emotionally for optimal learning? What should people do when they hit plateaus in their learning?
Scott H. Young is the Wall Street Journal bestselling author of Ultralearning, a podcast host, computer programmer, and an avid reader. Since 2006, he has published weekly essays to help people learn and think better. His work has been featured in the New York Times, Pocket, and Business Insider, on the BBC, and at TEDx among other outlets. He doesn't promise to have all the answers, just a place to start. He lives in Vancouver, Canada. Follow him on Twitter at @scotthyoung, email him at personal@scotthyoung.com, or read his blog posts on his website, scotthyoung.com/blog.
Further reading
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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A conversation with a narcissist (with Jacob Skidmore)
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Are narcissists born with narcissism? What are the core components of narcissism? To what extent do narcissists have their own personality that isn't shaped by what others think of them? Are narcissists overly confident or overly insecure? How are grandiosity and vulnerability related? Why might narcissists be offended by compliments? Would narcissists relinquish their narcissism if given the opportunity? Do most narcissists know that they suffer from Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD)? How long of a questionnaire is needed to diagnose NPD? In what professions are narcissists overly represented? How should people deal with the narcissists in their lives? How can narcissists be successfully integrated into society? What can people do if they think they might be a narcissist?
Jacob Skidmore, also known as "The Nameless Narcissist", is a social media personality who has made the effort to explain his diagnosis, Narcissistic Personality Disorder, from his perspective. Following being diagnosed with NPD, he craved to understand himself and others, and he's taken to using his platforms to describe his realizations. It's taken him as far as to speak at international conferences and universities. His reflections can be found on most social media, primarily YouTube and TikTok, under the name "The Nameless Narcissist".
Further reading
- Pathological Narcissism Inventory (online free assessment)
- Disarming the Narcissist: Surviving and Thriving with the Self-Absorbed, by Wendy T. Behary
- Unmasking Narcissism: A Guide to Understanding the Narcissist in Your Life, by Mark Ettensohn
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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What effects does guaranteed income have on U.S. citizens? (with Eva Vivalt)
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What have we learned about UBI from recent, large-scale studies? What factors contribute to differential attrition in (especially long-term) studies? How much does it cost to run large UBI studies? Where else in the world have major UBI studies been run? What's the difference between "guaranteed income" and UBI? How do people in cash transfer studies tend to spend their money? Should restrictions be placed on what people can spend their study money on? How long does it take to see various effects of UBI or guaranteed income on a large scale? How does guaranteed income affect the nature of work in recipients' lives? How does guaranteed income affect a person's net worth in the long run? What are the effects on well-being? How does topical knowledge affect prediction accuracy in a given area? How good are subject-matter experts at making predictions about the outcome or utility of a study? How can such predictions in aggregate be used to shape future research? To what extent should reseachers express uncertainty when making proposals to policy-makers? How much of an effect does the publishing of academic papers have on the world? What kind of person should try to build a career in academia? How can non-experts assess the rigor and significance of academic papers?
Eva Vivalt is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Toronto. Dr. Vivalt's main research interests are in investigating stumbling blocks to evidence-based policy decisions, including methodological issues, how evidence is interpreted, and the use of forecasting. Dr. Vivalt is also a principal investigator on three guaranteed income RCTs and a co-founder of the Social Science Prediction Platform, a platform to coordinate the collection of forecasts of research results. Find out more about her on her website, evavivalt.com.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Human evolution and AI evolution (with Dwarkesh Patel)
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What interesting things can we learn by studying pre-humans? How many different species of pre-humans were there? Why is there only a single species of human now? If pre-human species wiped each other out for various reasons, why might the ancestors of chimps and bonobos (who are very closely related to humans) have been spared? What roles did language, racism / speciesism, and disease likely play in the shaping of the human evolutionary tree? How is AI development like and unlike human development? What can we learn about AI development from human development and vice versa? What is an "AI firm"? What are some advantages AI firms would have over human companies in addition to intelligence and speed? How can we learn faster and retain knowledge better? Is writing the best way to learn something deeply?
Dwarkesh Patel is the host of the Dwarkesh Podcast. Listen to his podcast, read his writings on Substack, or learn more about him at his website, dwarkeshpatel.com.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Should sex work be a crime? (with Kaytlin Bailey)
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Why are sex workers treated so badly in the US? What effects do licensing requirements have on sex workers and their customers? How do sex worker rights connect with privacy rights more broadly? In what philosophical principles ought sex worker rights (and their customers' rights) to be grounded? How do sex work laws affect people who aren't sex workers? Is "whore-phobia" the root of all misogyny? Is misogyny built into human nature, or is it learned? How does testicle size affect evolutionary fitness? Must religions necessarily have rules and norms about sexual purity? How do the Abrahamic religions teach sexual purity, and to whom are these lessons taught? Do sex workers have more or fewer STIs than the average "civilian"? If Alice is a sex worker and has had sex with 20 partners, and Bridget is not a sex worker and has also had sex with 20 partners, then which of them is considered to be the more promiscuous of the two? What sorts of tools and processes do sex workers use to screen clients? Are sex workers harmed (psychologically, physically, etc.) more through sex work than the average person is harmed through their work? How common are pimps nowadays? What are the various legal models for sex work around the world? Why does there seem to be a strong connection between sex work and illegal drug use? Why are women more opposed than men to the legalization of sex work? Does legal sex work potentially encourage the objectification of women and thus increase misogyny?
Kaytlin Bailey is the founder and Executive Director of Old Pros, a nonprofit focused on changing the status of sex workers in society. She hosts The Oldest Profession Podcast and is currently touring her award-winning one-woman show Whore's Eye View, a comedic mad dash through 10,000 years of history from a sex worker's perspective. Old Pros sends out a weekly newsletter with a round up of sex worker rights news from around the world, upcoming live events, and new episodes of The Oldest Profession Podcast. Subscribe to that newsletter at oldprosonline.org, or interact on Twitter / X at @oldprosonline. To reach Kaytlin directly, send her an email at kaytlin@oldprosonline.org or message her on Twitter / X at @kaytlinbailey. To find upcoming tour dates for Whore's Eye View, visit whoreseyeview.com.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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When does productivity become toxic? (with Israa Nasir)
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When does productivity become toxic? To which part(s) of ourselves or our lives should we anchor our self-worth? How can we connect our productivity to our values? How does self-esteem intersect with productivity? When should we listen to our bodies and intuitions, and when should we ignore them and perhaps even do the opposite? How should achievements affect our sense of self-worth? What are some techniques for emotional regulation? What is the "narrator mind" useful for? What are some good coping mechanisms? How ambitious should we be? How can we figure out whether our own productivity system is toxic or not?
Israa Nasir, MHC-LP, is a New York City-based psychotherapist, writer, and the founder of WellGuide — a digital community for mental health awareness. A Pakistani-Canadian child of immigrants, she has a specific focus on mental health, identity formation, and healing for the AAPI first- and second-generation immigrant community. Israa has been featured in NBC, Vox, Huffpost, Teen Vogue, and other major publications and has been invited to speak at corporations such as Google, Meta, and Yale University. Israa sits on the Mental Health Advisory Board for both PopSugar (Vox Media) and the menstrual health product and advocacy brand, August. Learn more about her at her website, israanasir.com.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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A conversation with a sociopath (with M.E. Thomas)
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Are the terms "psychopath" and "sociopath" interchangeable? Are people suffering from Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) naturally violent? Are people usually born with these psychopathy, sociopathy, ASPD, or other similar personality disorders; or are they caused by environmental factors? To what extent do sociopaths have a sense of self or relatively fixed personality? Are sociopaths easily manipulated? How do shame and guilt differ? What is "gray rage"? To what extent do the primary "dark" personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and sadism) overlap? From an evolutionary perspective, why might these traits appear in a population? Can (and should) people cooperate altruistically with sociopaths? Why do we treat crimes of passion less harshly than premeditated crimes? (For example, why do people found guilty of sudden, impulsive murder usually receive lighter sentences than people found guilty of premeditated murder?) Are sociopaths more or less impulsive than the average person? How prevalent are antisocial personality disorders? Are sociopaths more likely to commit crimes than the average person? What factors motivate the average person to avoid unethical behaviors, and which of these factors do sociopaths lack? Do sociopaths lie about the same kinds of things as "normies"? Do sociopaths naturally enjoy hurting other people? Are sociopaths able to feel happiness? How do sociopaths' sexual behaviors and orientations differ from normies'? Since the majority of violent crime in the world is perpetrated by young men, is the average young man basically a sociopath or psychopath? How easily can sociopaths identify one another? If someone thinks they might be a sociopath (or have any of the other "dark" personality traits), what should they do? How should sociopaths be integrated into society?
M.E. Thomas is a practicing attorney who has advocated for equal rights and a better understanding of psychopaths since being diagnosed with psychopathy in 2010. She is the author of the book Confessions of a Sociopath: A Life Spent Hiding in Plain Sight. You can find her at sociopathworld.com.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Highs and lows on the road out of the replication crisis (with Brian Nosek)
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How much more robust have the social sciences become since the beginnings of the replication crisis? What fraction of replication failures indicate that the original result was a false positive? What do we know with relative certainty about human nature? How much of a difference is there between how people behave in a lab setting and how they behave out in the world? Why has there been such a breakdown of trust in the sciences over the past few decades? How can scientists better communicate uncertainty in their findings to the public? To what extent are replication failures a problem in the other sciences? How useful is the Implicit Association Test (IAT)? What does it mean if someone can predict how they'll score on the IAT? How do biases differ from associations? What should (and shouldn't) the IAT be used for? Why do replications often show smaller effect sizes than the original research showed? What is the Lifecycle Journals project?
Brian Nosek co-developed the Implicit Association Test, a method that advanced research and public interest in implicit bias. Nosek co-founded three non-profit organizations: Project Implicit to advance research and education about implicit bias, the Society for the Improvement of Psychological Science to improve the research culture in his home discipline, and the Center for Open Science (COS) to improve rigor, transparency, integrity, and reproducibility across research disciplines. Nosek is Executive Director of COS and a professor at the University of Virginia. Nosek's research and applied interests aim to understand why people and systems produce behaviors that are contrary to intentions and values; to develop, implement, and evaluate solutions to align practices with values; and, to improve research credibility and cultures to accelerate progress. Connect with him on Bluesky or LinkedIn, or learn more about him on the COS website.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Suffering and the self (with Jay Garfield)
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Why do we suffer? Would we still suffer if we got rid of all craving and aversion? Is pain the same thing as suffering? How is suffering connected to the concept of self? Should people in horrible situations attempt to remove themselves from those environments or try to improve their plights in any way; or should they merely free themselves from suffering by releasing their "craving" for well-being and their "aversion" to misery? Why would the dissolution of the self free someone from suffering? Are we identical to our bodies and/or minds? Is attention the same thing as the self? Is the concept of "no-self" analytical or empirical? How does "flow" differ from distraction? Is it irrational to pursue our own happiness without regard for others? How and where do Buddhist ethics overlap with the ethics taught by (e.g.) Abrahamic religions? What are the roles of meditators in Buddhist monasteries? What do Buddhists believe about god(s)? What do they believe about reincarnation? Is reincarnation different from rebirth? What is the role of the Buddha himself in Buddhism? Can these concepts be understood and/or experienced without meditating or studying Buddhist texts?
Jay L. Garfield is Doris Silbert Professor in the Humanities and Professor of Philosophy and Buddhist Studies at Smith College, Visiting Professor of Buddhist philosophy at Harvard Divinity School, Professor of Philosophy at Melbourne University, and Adjunct Professor of Philosophy at the Central Institute of Higher Tibetan Studies. Garfield’s research addresses topics in the foundations of cognitive science and the philosophy of mind; metaphysics; the history of modern Indian philosophy; topics in ethics, epistemology, and the philosophy of logic; the philosophy of the Scottish enlightenment methodology in cross-cultural interpretation; and topics in Buddhist philosophy, particularly Indo-Tibetan Madhyamaka and Yogācāra. He is the author or editor of over 30 books and over 200 articles, chapters, and reviews. A few of his most recent books include How to Lose Yourself: An Ancient Guide to Letting Go (with Maria Heim and Robert Sharf 2024), Losing Ourselves: Learning to Live without a Self (2022), and Knowing Illusion: Bringing a Tibetan Debate into Contemporary Discourse (with the Yakherds 2021), and Buddhist Ethics: A Philosophical Exploration (2021). Learn more about him at his website, jaygarfield.org.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Choosing your strategy (with Seth Godin)
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What are the differences between tactics and strategies? Is the speed of growth of a company the main thing business school graduates should consider when trying to figure out where to launch their careers? How much optimism or pessimism should strategies include? How can we gain footholds for change in systems that are very strongly self-reinforcing? Is it possible to change a system's side effects without changing its purpose? What are the differences between strategies and visions? Is it better to follow a map or a compass? If you buy a lottery ticket and win big, was it a good decision? What are some of the most common mistakes leaders make when developing a strategy? How simple or complex should strategies be? What are the benefits of being able to speak a strategy out loud? How can leaders know when to modify or even abandon a strategy? How can entrepreneurs know if their starting strategy is a good one? To what extent is creativity required for good strategy design? What are the three big principles of marketing? Is all marketing unethical? Is it unethical to market a placebo? How are status and affiliation related? What is the single most important thing a team can do when developing a strategy?
Seth Godin is an entrepreneur, best-selling author, speaker, and teacher. In addition to launching one of the most popular blogs in the world, he has written 21 best-selling books, including The Dip, Linchpin, Purple Cow, Tribes, and What To Do When It's Your Turn (And It's Always Your Turn). His book, This Is Marketing, was an instant bestseller in countries around the world. His new book, out in 2024, is This Is Strategy. Though renowned for his writing and speaking, Seth also founded two companies: Squidoo and Yoyodyne (acquired by Yahoo!). He's credited as the inventor of email marketing (the good kind). He has given five TED talks, including two that rank among the most popular of all time. In 2013, Seth was one of just three professionals inducted into the Direct Marketing Hall of Fame; and in 2018, he was inducted into the Marketing Hall of Fame as well. He might be the only person in both. Learn more about him at his website, sethgodin.com, read his blog posts at seths.blog, or pick up his most recent book, This Is Strategy: Make Better Plans.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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How to be productive without burning out (with Anne-Laure Le Cunff)
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What is "mindful" productivity? Is impostor syndrome linked to main character syndrome? Must increased productivity always come with an increased risk of burn-out? What mistakes do people most commonly make when trying to improve their productivity? Is the best productivity system also the most minimal? What is "plus-minus-next"? How can we use our time more efficiently? What does it mean to have an "experimental" mindset? How many of our passions do we discover at first sight? What are the differences between habits and routines? What are some good ways to set up self-experiments? How important is quantification in self-experiments? How often should we expect self-experiments to yield useful results? What does it look like to exhibit "systematic" curiosity?
Anne-Laure Le Cunff is an award-winning neuroscientist, entrepreneur, and writer. She is the founder of Ness Labs, where her weekly newsletter about mindful productivity and systematic curiosity is read by more than 100,000 curious minds. Her research at King’s College London’s Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, & Neuroscience focuses on the psychology and neuroscience of lifelong learning, curiosity, and adaptability. Her upcoming book, Tiny Experiments, is a transformative guide for living a more experimental life, turning uncertainty into curiosity, and carving a path of self-discovery. Previously, Le Cunff worked at Google as a global lead for digital health. Her work has been featured in Rolling Stone, Forbes, the Financial Times, WIRED, and more. She serves as an advisor for the Applied Neuroscience Association and the All Party Parliamentary Group for Entrepreneurship on themes of mental health at work. Based in London, she continues in her writing and research to explore the intersection of neuroscience and personal development. Learn more about her research, and sign up for her newsletter, at nesslabs.com.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
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Does simply giving people money truly enable them to escape poverty? (with Miriam Laker)
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Should we give cash directly to people living in poverty? Why do most nonprofits prefer to give services rather than cash? What should be done if the things that a person really needs aren't purchasable near them? (For example, what if a person needs a vaccine that isn't available in their country?) Can most people be trusted to spend money wisely? Are single lump sum transfers more effective than recurring transfers on monthly or yearly bases? What are the most common uses to which recipients put their cash transfers? What are the most common kinds of businesses started by entrepreneurially-minded recipients? What kinds of communities does GiveDirectly serve? How do cash transfers affect social dynamics in communities? What are the biggest challenges related to giving cash transfers? What is the evidence that cash transfers are more effective than other kinds of aid? How are the short- and long-term effects of cash transfers measured? How long do beneficial effects tend to last? Are recipients ever suspicious of GiveDirectly's motives? How often do people opt out of receiving a cash transfer? How does GiveDirectly explain to people why they (and not people in neighboring communities) were chosen to receive aid? How do recipients see their own financial situations? Do they usually see themselves as living in poverty?
Dr. Miriam Laker is the Director of Research at GiveDirectly. In her role, she oversees the generation of robust evidence on cash transfer implementation and impacts. She is an advocate for unconditional cash transfers as a tool to end global extreme poverty. She is also a board member of the CALPNetwork and was voted one of Uganda's top 40 women under the age of 40. Connect with her on LinkedIn. Learn more about and connect with GiveDirectly on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, or their website, givedirectly.org.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Who really controls US elections? (with Bradley Tusk)
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What's the reality of how politicians get elected in the US? How much of a role does gerrymandering play? Are Democrats and Republicans equally guilty of gerrymandering? Do the parties secretly collaborate on gerrymandering? Is gerrymandering legal? What determines who wins a primary election? What percent of all government positions are actually contested? What are the five main types of politicians? We use our phones to manage our bank accounts, medical records, and other sensitive information; so why can't we vote from our phones yet? Should prediction markets be allowed to bet on elections? What makes a regulation too lax or too restrictive? When should government provide goods, and when should it provide services? Should today's big tech companies be broken up? Should Section 230 is a section of the Communications Act of 1934 be repealed? How can AI be used to make government more effective?
Bradley Tusk is a venture capitalist, political strategist, philanthropist, and writer. He is the CEO and co-founder of Tusk Ventures, the world's first venture capital fund that invests solely in early stage startups in highly regulated industries, and the founder of political consulting firm Tusk Strategies. Bradley's family foundation is funding and leading the national campaign to bring mobile voting to U.S. elections and also has run anti-hunger campaigns in 24 different states, helping to feed over 13 million people. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. Before Vote With Your Phone, Bradley authored The Fixer: My Adventures Saving Startups From Death by Politics and Obvious in Hindsight. He hosts a podcast called Firewall about the intersection of tech and politics, and recently opened an independent bookstore, P&T Knitwear, on Manhattan's Lower East Side. In his earlier career, Bradley served as campaign manager for Mike Bloomberg's 2009 mayoral race, as Deputy Governor of Illinois, overseeing the state's budget, operations, legislation, policy, and communications, as communications director for US Senator Chuck Schumer, and as Uber's first political advisor. Connect with Bradley on Substack and LinkedIn.
Further reading
- Vote With Your Phone: Why Mobile Voting Is Our Final Shot at Saving Democracy, by Bradley Tusk
- The Fixer: My Adventures Saving Startups from Death by Politics, by Bradley Tusk
- "Wisconsin's Legislative Maps Are Bizarre, but Are They Illegal?", by Megan O'Matz (gerrymandering examples)
Even futher reading based on the note @ 00:14:00:
- Article discussing whether or not primaries create more extreme results in U.S. elections: "Are Primaries a Problem?", by Lee Drutman
- These papers find that primary voters are more extreme than general election voters or that primaries promote more extremeness in candidates:
- "Polarized Primaries and Polarized Legislators: Examining the Influence of Primary Elections on Polarization in the U.S. House", by Lindsay Nielson and Neil Visalvanich
- "Primaries and Candidates: Examining the Influence of Primary Electorates on Candidate Ideology", by Lindsay Nielson and Neil Visalvanich
- "Primary Elections and Candidate Ideology: Out of Step with the Primary Electorate?", by David W. Brady, Hahrie Han, and Jeremy C. Pope
- Whereas these papers find that there is little to no difference in polarization between primary voters and general election voters:
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
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Communities of belief vs. communities of chemistry (with Tyler Alterman)
Read the full transcript here.
Do people need more community in their lives? What makes for a good community? Can you really belong to a community if you don't share its core values? Is social chemistry transitive? Do "communities of belief" form and build trust more quickly than "communities of chemistry"? Do rationalists avoid taking "vibes", intuition, or instinct into account when forming communities? Can you learn how to do a thing simply by pretending that you're a pro? What can you learn about people by breaking the standard social scripts? How might utilitarianism be harmful or even dangerous to those trying to live by it? Does the effective altruism movement attract people who are prone to hyper-extend, over-commit, or over-optimize themselves to a fault? To what extent does effective altruism encourage its practitioners to live in permanent crisis mode? Where does moral obligation come from?
Tyler Alterman is a former coalition-builder (effective altruism, reducetarianism, x-risks), a former cognitive science researcher (Yale, UChicago), a former startup-maker (Reserve, The Think Tank), a "former" artist & graphic designer, and a current novel-writer & FractalU co-founder. Learn more about him on his website.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Everyone — including you! — should host more events (with Nick Gray)
Read the full transcript here.
Why should people host more events than they do right now? Under what conditions shouldn't a person host more events? Do these suggestions apply to introverts? What's the best RSVP tool? What is "double opt-in"? What's the ideal length of time for a social event? What kinds of ice-breaker activities, if any, should hosts use? What are the primary factors that affect people's enjoyment of an event? What does it mean to "compress and release" in an event or party context? Which nights of the week are best for hosting events? When should hosts end the event? What should hosts do if people's energy or enjoyment seems to be flagging? Should everyone get a name tag? How should hosts follow up after an event? What is "the strength of weak ties"? Should events be used as business networking tools? How can someone meet more interesting people?
Nick Gray is an entrepreneur and best-selling author living in Austin, Texas. He started and sold two successful companies: Flight Display Systems and Museum Hack. Nick is the author of The 2-Hour Cocktail Party, a step-by-step handbook that teaches you how to build big relationships by hosting small gatherings. Over 75,000 people have watched his TEDx talk about why he hates most museums. He's been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and New York Magazine, which called him a host of "culturally significant parties." Connect with him on Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, LinkedIn, or TikTok; sign up for his newsletter; or learn more about him on his website, nickgray.net.
Further reading
- The 2-Hour Cocktail Party: How to Build Big Relationships with Small Gatherings, by Nick Gray
- The Art of Gathering: How We Meet and Why It Matters, by Priya Parker
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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What do we know for sure about human psychology? (with Simine Vazire)
Read the full transcript here.
How much progress has psychology made on the things that matter most to us? What are some psychological findings we feel pretty confident are true? How much consensus is there about the Big 5 personality traits? What are the points of disagreement about the Big 5? Are traits the best way of thinking about personality? How consistent are the Big 5 traits across cultures? How accurately do people self-report their own personality? When are psychophysical measures more or less useful than self-report measures? How much credence should we lend to the concept of cognitive dissonance? What's the next phase of improvement in the social sciences? Has replicability improved among the social sciences in, say, the last decade? What percent of papers in top journals contain fraud? What percent of papers in top journals are likely unreplicable? Is it possible to set the bar for publishing too high? How can universities maintain a high level of quality in their professors and researchers without pressuring them so hard to publish constantly? What is the simpliest valid analysis for a given study?
Simine Vazire's research examines whether and how science self-corrects, focusing on psychology. She studies the research methods and practices used in psychology, as well as structural systems in science, such as peer review. She also examines whether we know ourselves, and where our blind spots are in our self-knowledge. She teaches research methods. She is editor-in-chief of Psychological Science (as of 1 Jan, 2024) and co-founder (with Brian Nosek) of the Society for the Improvement of Psychological Science. Learn more about her and her work at simine.com.
Further reading
- "How Replicable Are Links Between Personality Traits and Consequential Life Outcomes? The Life Outcomes of Personality Replication Project", by Christopher J. Soto
- "Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies", by Joel, Eastwick, Allison, and Wolf
- Note from Spencer: I misremembered this study as trying to predict breakups when actually the variable they found they couldn't predict is change in relationship-quality over time. The authors said that "relationship-quality change (i.e., increases or decreases in relationship quality over the course of a study) was largely unpredictable from any combination of self-report variables".
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Pattern-breaking ideas, and startups that change the world (with Mike Maples)
Read the full transcript here.
What mistakes do investors make when trying to predict which startups will succeed? Which matters more: a startup's team or its central idea? How do startup founders differ from other capitalists? What makes something a "pattern-breaking" idea or behavior? Are startup founders less sensitive to negative feedback than the average person? Is it possible to achieve startup success without challenging the status quo? Is it true that 90% of startups fail? What is founder-future match? At their core, what are movements? Can startup founders be too good at storytelling? Has the US become less innovative? What are Singapore and Israel doing right that enables them to have the highest number of "unicorn" startups per million people? What's the right amount of "shaking things up"?
Mike Maples, Jr. is an entrepreneur, venture capitalist, podcaster, and the co-founder of FLOODGATE, a leading seed stage fund in Silicon Valley that invested in companies like Twitter, Twitch, Okta, and Outreach at the very beginning of their startup journeys. An eight-time member of the Forbes Midas List of Top Venture Capital investors, he was one of the pioneers of the seed investing movement, which started in the mid-2000s, and now is a mainstream part of startup funding. Follow him on Twitter at @m2jr.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Decision-making and play-testing (with Dan Epstein)
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What sorts of decisions are we making without even realizing we're making them? Are people aware of their own values? Do they know how those values rank relative to each other? What are all the various parties, interests, and values that have to be addressed and balanced when making decisions in a healthcare context? What does it mean to "play-test" yourself? What are the best strategies for giving feedback? How much energy is required to make various kinds of decisions? How can we practice and get better at decision-making? What is "tabletop exercising"? What are the most effective ways to bring other people into the decision-making process? What are some aspects of games that ought to be put to good use in non-game contexts? Why are educational games usually neither fun nor educational? How can game design features be used in ways that avoid turning metrics into targets? How can we make better decisions about how to divvy up our time?
Dr. Dan Epstein is a practicing medical doctor and academic PhD focusing on decision-making and game design. Dan is the director of The Long Game Project, which helps businesses and leaders improve strategy and decision-making with games and tabletop exercises. Dan is also an ambassador for Giving What We Can, a community of people who pledge to donate a portion of their income to effective causes; and he's a member of High Impact Athletes, a community of current and past athletes who do the same. Follow him on Twitter at @drdanepstein, email him at email@longgameproject.org, connect with him on LinkedIn, or learn more about his work at longgameproject.org.
Further reading
- The Long Game Project newsletter
- The Long Game Project YouTube channel
- Foundations of Tabletop Exercising: Design Exercises for Real Impact — a free course taught by Dan
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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The path to utopia (with Nick Bostrom)
Read the full transcript here.
Why do there seem to be more dystopias than utopias in our collective imagination? Why is it easier to find agreement on what we don't want than on what we do want? Do we simply not know what we want? What are "solved worlds", "plastic worlds", and "vulnerable worlds"? Given today's technologies, why aren't we working less than we potentially could? Can humanity reach a utopia without superintelligent AI? What will humans do with their time, and/or how will they find purpose in life, if AIs take over all labor? What are "quiet" values? With respect to AI, how important is it to us that our conversation partners be conscious? Which factors will likely make the biggest differences in terms of moving the world towards utopia or dystopia? What are some of the most promising strategies for improving global coordination? How likely are we to end life on earth? How likely is it that we're living in a simulation?
Nick Bostrom is a Swedish-born philosopher with a background in theoretical physics, computational neuroscience, logic, and artificial intelligence, along with philosophy. He's been a Professor at Oxford University, where he served as the founding Director of the Future of Humanity Institute from 2005 until its closure in April 2024. He is currently the founder and Director of Research of the Macrostrategy Research Initiative. Bostrom is the author of over 200 publications, including Anthropic Bias (2002), Global Catastrophic Risks (2008), Human Enhancement (2009), and Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014). His work has pioneered many of the ideas that frame current thinking about humanity's future (such as the concept of an existential risk, the simulation argument, the vulnerable world hypothesis, the unilateralist's curse, etc.), while some of his recent work concerns the moral status of digital minds. His most recent book, Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World, was published in March of 2024. Learn more about him at his website, nickbostrom.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Physical limits and the long-term future (with Anders Sandberg)
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How much energy is needed for GDP growth? Would our civilization have developed at the same rate without fossil fuels? Could we potentially do the same things we're currently doing but with significantly less energy? How different would the world look if we'd developed nuclear energy much earlier? Why can't anything go faster than light? Will the heat death of the universe really be "the end" for everything? How can difficult concepts be communicated in simple ways that nevertheless avoid being misleading or confusing? Is energy conservation an unbreakable law? How likely is it that advanced alien civilizations exist? What are S-risks? Can global civilizations be virtuous? What is panspermia? How can we make better backups of our knowledge and culture?
Anders Sandberg is a researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies in Sweden. He was formerly senior research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at University of Oxford. His research deals with emerging technologies, the ethics of human enhancement, global and existential risks, and very long-range futures. Follow him on Twitter / X at @anderssandberg, find him via his various links here.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Becoming a goat to avoid existential dread (with Thomas Thwaites)
Read the full transcript here.
How hard is it to construct a toaster from scratch? Do we in modern times individually have more knowledge than individuals living 100 or 1,000 years ago? Should corporations be thought of as a kind of emergent artificial intelligence? To what extent are corporations — and more broadly, whole economies — aligned with human values? Which animals experience the smallest amount of existential dread? Are humans at the top of the evolutionary "pyramid"? Is it possible to make a completely harmless car? Or is it even possible to make a completely harmless anything? What are the differences between "Cowboy Earth" and "Spaceship Earth"?
Thomas Thwaites is an award-winning design researcher and author of two acclaimed books, The Toaster Project, and Goatman. His sometimes eccentric projects explore the psychological and social impacts of technology as we struggle to find a sustainable future. His work is exhibited at museums and galleries worldwide, and is in the permanent collections of the Victoria & Albert Museum in London, The Boijmans Museum in Rotterdam, and the Banque de France. He has a BSc. in Human Sciences from University College London and an MA in Design Interactions from the Royal College of Art. Learn more about him at his website, thomasthwaites.com.
Further reading
- The Toaster Project: Or a Heroic Attempt to Build a Simple Electric Appliance from Scratch, by Thomas Thwaites
- Goatman: How I Took a Holiday from Being Human (One Man's Journey to Leave Humanity Behind and Become Like a Goat), by Thomas Thwaites
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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AI apocalypticism vs. AI optimism (with Adam Russell)
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What is "apocaloptimism"? Is there a middle ground between apocalypticism and optimism? What are the various camps in the AI safety and ethics debates? What's the difference between "working on AI safety" and "building safe AIs"? Can our social and technological coordination problems be solved only by AI? What is "qualintative" research? What are some social science concepts that can aid in the development of safe and ethical AI? What should we do with things that don't fall neatly into our categories? How might we benefit by shifting our focus from individual intelligence to collective intelligence? What is cognitive diversity? What are "AI Now", "AI Next", and "AI in the Wild"?
Adam Russell is the Director of the AI Division at the University of Southern California's Information Sciences Institute (ISI). Prior to ISI, Adam was the Chief Scientist at the University of Maryland's Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security, or ARLIS, and was an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland's Department of Psychology. He was the Principal Investigator for standing up the INFER (Integrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk) forecasting platform. Adam's almost 20-year career in applied research and national security has included serving as a Program Manager at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), then as a Program Manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) (where he was known as the DARPAnthropologist) and in May 2022 was appointed as the Acting Deputy Director to help stand up the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H). Adam has a BA in cultural anthropology from Duke University and a D.Phil. in social anthropology from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. He has also represented the United States in rugby at the international level, having played for the US national men's rugby team (the Eagles).
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Should we trust papers published in top social science journals? (with Daniel Lakens)
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How much should we trust social science papers in top journals? How do we know a paper is trustworthy? Do large datasets mitigate p-hacking? Why doesn't psychology as a field seem to be working towards a grand unified theory? Why aren't more psychological theories written in math? Or are other scientific fields mathematicized to a fault? How do we make psychology cumulative? How can we create environments, especially in academia, that incentivize constructive criticism? Why isn't peer review pulling its weight in terms of catching errors and constructively criticizing papers? What kinds of problems simply can't be caught by peer review? Why is peer review saved for the very end of the publication process? What is "importance hacking"? On what bits of psychological knowledge is there consensus among researchers? When and why do adversarial collaborations fail? Is admission of error a skill that can be taught and learned? How can students be taught that p-hacking is problematic without causing them to over-correct into a failure to explore their problem space thoroughly and efficiently?
Daniel Lakens is an experimental psychologist working at the Human-Technology Interaction group at Eindhoven University of Technology. In addition to his empirical work in cognitive and social psychology, he works actively on improving research methods and statistical inferences, and has published on the importance of replication research, sequential analyses and equivalence testing, and frequentist statistics. Follow him on Twitter / X at @Lakens.
Further reading
- Nullius in Verba (Daniel's podcast)
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Is psychology the same across cultures? (with Joseph Henrich)
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What are "WEIRD" cultures? What percentage of the world's population is WEIRD? Why do WEIRD cultures tend to use analytic thinking (as opposed to the wholistic thinking used in non-WEIRD cultures)? Does school make you more intelligent or merely more knowledgeable? Do individualistic cultures tend to innovate more than collectivistic cultures? How does moral reasoning differ between WEIRD and non-WEIRD cultures? Is the world becoming more WEIRD? How diverse are non-WEIRD cultures?
Joseph Henrich is currently the Ruth Moore Professor of Biological Anthropology in the Department of Human Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University. Before moving to Harvard, he was a professor of both Economics and Psychology at the University of British Columbia for nearly a decade, where he held the Canada Research Chair in Culture, Cognition, and Coevolution. His research deploys evolutionary theory to understand how human psychology gives rise to cultural evolution and how this has shaped our species' genetic evolution. Using insights generated from this approach, Professor Henrich has explored a variety of topics, including economic decision-making, social norms, fairness, religion, marriage, prestige, cooperation, and innovation. He's conducted long-term anthropological fieldwork in Peru, Chile, and in the South Pacific, as well as having spearheaded several large comparative projects. In 2016, he published The Secret of Our Success (Princeton) and in 2020, The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West became psychologically peculiar and particularly prosperous (FSG). Learn more about his work here, or follow him on Twitter / X at @JoHenrich.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Jennifer Vanderhoof — Transcriptionist
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Spencer on The 80,000 Hours Podcast discussing money & happiness and hype vs. value (with Rob Wiblin)
Read the full transcript here.
NOTE: Spencer appeared as a guest on The 80,000 Hours Podcast back in March, and this episode is our release of that recording. Thanks to the folks at The 80,000 Hours Podcast for sharing both their audio and transcript with us!
Does money make people happy? What's the difference between life satisfaction and wellbeing? In other contexts, critics are quick to point out that correlation does not equal causation; so why do they so often seem to ignore such equations when they appear in research about the relationships between money and happiness? When is hype a good thing? What are some ethical ways to generate hype? What are some signs that someone is an untrustworthy or hurtful person? Are pre-registrations and/or registered reports helping with reproducibility in the social sciences? Should we all maintain a list of principles to help guide our decisions? What are the most common pitfalls in group decision-making? What is "lightgassing"? What kinds of life outcomes can be predicted from a person's astrological sign? How does machine learning differ from statistics? When does retaliatory behavior become pro-social? In what ways do people change when they become parents?
Rob Wiblin hosts The 80,000 Hours Podcast, which investigates the world's most pressing problems and what listeners can do to solve them. You can learn more about Rob at robwiblin.com, learn more about his research work at 80000hours.org, and follow him on social media at @robertwiblin.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Concrete actions anyone can take to help improve AI safety (with Kat Woods)
Read the full transcript here.
Why should we consider slowing AI development? Could we slow down AI development even if we wanted to? What is a "minimum viable x-risk"? What are some of the more plausible, less Hollywood-esque risks from AI? Even if an AI could destroy us all, why would it want to do so? What are some analogous cases where we slowed the development of a specific technology? And how did they turn out? What are some reasonable, feasible regulations that could be implemented to slow AI development? If an AI becomes smarter than humans, wouldn't it also be wiser than humans and therefore more likely to know what we need and want and less likely to destroy us? Is it easier to control a more intelligent AI or a less intelligent one? Why do we struggle so much to define utopia? What can the average person do to encourage safe and ethical development of AI?
Kat Woods is a serial charity entrepreneur who's founded four effective altruist charities. She runs Nonlinear, an AI safety charity. Prior to starting Nonlinear, she co-founded Charity Entrepreneurship, a charity incubator that has launched dozens of charities in global poverty and animal rights. Prior to that, she co-founded Charity Science Health, which helped vaccinate 200,000+ children in India, and, according to GiveWell's estimates at the time, was similarly cost-effective to AMF. You can follow her on Twitter at @kat__woods; you can read her EA writing here and here; and you can read her personal blog here.
Further reading
- Robert Miles AI Safety @ YouTube
- "The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence", by Tim Urban
- Uncontrollable: The Threat of Artificial Superintelligence and the Race to Save the World, by Darren McKee
- The Nonlinear Network
- PauseAI
- Dan Hendrycks @ Manifund (AI regrantor)
- Adam Gleave @ Manifund (AI regrantor)
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Jennifer Vanderhoof — Transcriptionist
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What do socialism and effective altruism have in common? (with Garrison Lovely)
Read the full transcript here.
What does effective altruism look like from a leftist / socialist perspective? Are the far left and EA the only groups that take radical egalitarianism seriously? What are some of the points of agreement and disagreement between EA & socialism? Socialists frequently critique the excesses, harms, and failures of capitalism; but what do they have to say about the effectiveness of capitalism to produce wealth, goods, and services? Is socialism just a top-down mirror of capitalism? How difficult is it to mix and match economic tools or systems? Why is the left not more tuned into AI development? What are the three main sides in AI debates right now? Why are there so many disagreements between AI safety and AI ethics groups? What do the incentive structures look like for governments regarding AGI? Should the world create a CERN-like entity to manage and regulate AI research? How should we think about AI research in light of the trend of AI non-profits joining forces with or being subsumed by for-profit corporations? How might for-profit corporations handle existential risks from AI if those risks seem overwhelmingly likely to become reality?
Garrison Lovely is a Brooklyn-based freelance journalist with cover stories in The Nation and Jacobin and long-form work in BBC Future, Vox, Current Affairs, and elsewhere. He has appeared on CBS News Sunday Morning, The Weather Channel, The Majority Report, and SiriusXM. He hosts the podcast The Most Interesting People I Know. His writing has been referenced in publications like The New Yorker (by Ted Chiang), ProPublica, New York Magazine, The New Republic, and GQ. Read his writings on his Substack; learn more about his work at his website, garrisonlovely.com; or email him at tgarrisonlovely@gmail.com.
Further reading
- "13 Ways Some Companies Make Money While Causing Harm", by Spencer Greenberg
- "Can Humanity Survive AI?", by Garrison Lovely in Jacobin
- "The Data Show That Socialism Works", by Nick Warino in Current Affairs
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
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Raising our happiness baseline (with Sasha Chapin)
Read the full transcript here.
How easy is it to shift our baseline level of happiness? What sorts of things can most effectively shift that baseline? And are they highly specific to each individual or generalizable to most people? What are the differences between conceptual and phenomenal self-love? Why might it be useful to view shame as a kink? How does self-love or self-acceptance differ from indulging or even just tolerating the worst parts of yourself? What's the best way to think about "woo"? How genuine is the stereotypical guru demeanor of serenity, graciousness, and attentiveness? Is it possible for people with aphantasia to learn visualization? What's so interesting about perfume? What can people do to become better writers?
Sasha Chapin is a writer currently living in California. Most of his recent writing is on his Substack. His most popular posts there are "What the humans like is responsiveness" and "50 Things I Know". He also wrote a book called All the Wrong Moves: A Memoir About Chess, Love, and Ruining Everything. Learn more about him at his website, sashachapin.com, or follow him on Twitter / X at @sashachapin.
Further reading
- Cate Hall's Clearer Thinking episode
- Loch Kelly's Clearer Thinking episode
- Mind's Eye Development eCourse — the course that helped Sasha overcome aphantasia
- Loving What Is: Four Questions That Can Change Your Life, by Byron Katie
- Expanding Awareness, by Michael Ashcroft
- Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most, by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton, and Sheila Heen
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Music
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Worldviews, altruism, and embracing variance (with Emmett Shear)
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How does Emmett's worldview differ from the standard Silicon Valley worldview? What's the difference between an ideology and a worldview? What's middle management useful for? How might democracy be improved? How important is optimism? Why do people seem to get less done each day than they expect to get done? When is high variance beneficial? Does every startup have a point where it seems like they're going to fail? What's the best and worst startup advice out there? What's the right way to learn from users / customers? When should companies follow trends? How should we think about the different types of AI risks?
Emmett Shear is an entrepreneur and investor. He was part of the first class at Y Combinator in 2005. He co-founded Justin.tv in 2006 and its spin-off company Twitch in 2011. In the same year, he also became a part-time partner at Y Combinator, a role in which he continues to advise new startups. He very briefly (for 2.5 days) acted as interim CEO at OpenAI in November 2023. Follow him on Twitter / X at @eshear.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
Music
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Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)
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Should people spend more time becoming better decision-makers? What are the main things that determine how our lives turn out? What's wrong with pro / con lists? When should we deviate from making decisions based on expected value calculations? What kinds of uncertainty might we encounter in the decision-making process? Are explicit decision calculations self-defeating? How similar is intuitive decision-making to decision-making that's based on calculations? How useful are heuristics? How can we know which decisions are significant enough to warrant calculations? What makes a decision hard? What's the omission / commission bias? What lessons can we learn from monkeys and pedestals? Should decision-making strategies be taught in primary and secondary schools?
Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker, has won a World Series of Poker bracelet, and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. Connect with her on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn or via her website, AnnieDuke.com; or subscribe to her newsletter on Substack.
Further reading
- Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, by Annie Duke
- Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, by Annie Duke
- How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices, by Annie Duke
- The Alliance for Decision Education
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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What we know and don't know about nutrition (with Gil Carvalho)
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How do we know what's true in nutrition? Why aren't nutrition studies seemingly as "definitive" as (e.g.) physics experiments often seem to be? What is the "hierarchy of evidence"? Why is there such a disconnect between the kinds of evidence that actually seem to persuade people and the kinds of evidence that scientists view as valid and meaningful? How can we talk about specific foods in ways that avoid labelling them as always good or always bad? Is the Mediterranean diet good for anyone and everyone? Is it better than all other known dietary patterns? Are there healthy ways to do (e.g.) low-carb, high-carb, low-fat, high-fat, and other similar diet types? What do we know about the effects of ketogenic diets? What do we know about the effects of meat-only diets? Are saturated fats always bad? How should we think about mechanistic evidence given for or against a particular food or diet? How much protein should we consume every day? Should we universally reduce our sugar intake? To what extent is excess body fat bad? Since BMI is much criticized, what are the best measures of health for people with excess body fat? Should we avoid blood sugar spikes throughout the day? What percent of people tend to re-gain lost weight after concluding temporary diets? Is caloric intake really the only factor for weight gain or loss? Is the mistrust of nutritionists justified?
Gil Carvalho, MD PhD is a physician, research scientist, science communicator, speaker, and writer. Dr. Carvalho trained as a medical doctor in the University of Lisbon, in his native Portugal, and later obtained a PhD in Biology from the California Institute of Technology. He has published peer-reviewed medical research spanning the fields of genetics, molecular biology, nutrition, behavior, aging, and neuroscience. In parallel with his research career, Dr. Carvalho also has a passion for science communication. He directs and hosts Nutrition Made Simple, which aims to convey fundamental nutrition concepts to a general audience via educational videos. Learn more about him here, and follow him on YouTube, Twitter / X, and Instagram.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Measuring everything that matters (with Doug Hubbard)
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Can we measure everything that matters to us? When is measuring the correlates of a thing pretty much just as good as measuring the thing itself? Why are some people resistant to measuring certain things? What are some things people should be measuring but aren't? What's the connection between measuring things and assigning probabilities to events? How much do we know about how well human intuition performs against "doing the math"? How inconsistent are we at applying our own principles in decision-making? What kinds of calibration training are effective? What is "value of information"? What is the Rule of 5? What are the top three things we can do to improve our decision-making?
Douglas Hubbard is an author, consultant, and recognized expert in decision theory and risk analysis. He has written several books on measurement and measuring risk. His work spans various industries including insurance, finance, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, military, energy, government, tech, and nonprofit organizations. Connect with Doug on LinkedIn, email him at dwhubbard@hubbardresearch.com, or learn more about his work at hubbardresearch.com.
Further reading
- How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, by Douglas Hubbard
- Applied Information Economics Academy (Doug's online calibration training)
- Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences, by John Allen Paulos
- Clearer Thinking's "Calibrate Your Judgement" tool
- Fatebook
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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What happens when you follow 100 self-help books to the letter? (with Kristen Meinzer)
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Why does it seem that many people read self-help books with no intention of actually doing what the books prescribe? Why are self-help books often less clear than it seems they ought to be? What are self-help books actually designed to do? Why do self-help authors continue to write as though their ideas will help everyone when it seems fairly obvious that no single self-help book has ever been a global panacea? Should self-help advice differ based on the gender of the receiver? How does life coaching differ from self-help? How does therapy differ both from life coaching and from self-help? Should therapists fire their clients once the clients' problems have been solved? Should therapists give homework? What are the best and worst ideas commonly found in self-help books?
Kristen Meinzer is a culture critic, podcaster, and author. She cohosts the podcast How To Be Fine (Apple Podcasts, Instagram), formerly called By The Book, which looks at the good and the bad of the wellness industry. She also cohosts the podcast The Daily Fail, which does comedic close readings of the tabloids. Additionally, Kristen is a frequent contributor on NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Aligning society with our deepest values and sources of meaning (with Joe Edelman)
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What are the best ways to define "values" and "meaning"? How can democratic processes harness people's intrinsic values and sources of meaning to increase their agency, cooperation, participation, equality, etc.? To what extent do political rivals — or even the bitterest of political enemies — actually value many of the same things? Might we be able to use AIs as "neutral" third-party mediators to help reduce political polarization, especially on an interpersonal level? How can we transform our personal values and sources of meaning into positive, shared visions for society? Are markets inherently antisocial? Or are they just easily made to be so? Companies frequently invoke our deepest needs and values as a bait-and-switch to sell us their goods and services; but since there must actually be demand to have those deep needs met and those deep values realized, why do companies so rarely attempt to supply goods and services that address those things directly? Assuming there actually is a lot of overlap in intrinsic values and sources of meaning across individuals and across groups, why do we still have such a hard time developing shared visions for society?
Joe Edelman is a philosopher, sociologist, and entrepreneur. He invented the meaning-based metrics used at CouchSurfing, Facebook, and Apple, and co-founded the Center for Humane Technology and the Meaning Alignment Institute. His biggest contribution is a definition of "human values" that's precise enough to create product metrics, aligned ML models, and values-based democratic structures. Follow him on Twitter / X at @edelwax, email him at hello@meaningalignment.org, or learn more about him and the Meaning Alignment Institute (@meaningaligned on Twitter / X).
Further reading
- "OpenAI x DFT: The First Moral Graph" by Joe Edelman and Oliver Klingefjord — "Beyond Constitutional AI; Our first trial with 500 Americans; How democratic processes can generate an LLM we can trust."
- "Replica Theory" by Spencer Greenberg
- Joe's GPT bots for exploring your personal values
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Separating quantum computing hype from reality (with Scott Aaronson)
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What exactly is quantum computing? How much should we worry about the possibility that quantum computing will break existing cryptography tools? When will a quantum computer with enough horsepower to crack RSA likely appear? On what kinds of tasks will quantum computers likely perform better than classical computers? How legitimate are companies that are currently selling quantum computing solutions? How can scientists help to fight misinformation and misunderstandings about quantum computing? To what extent should the state of the art be exaggerated with the aim of getting people excited about the possibilities the technology might afford and encouraging them to invest in research or begin a career in the field? Is now a good time to go into the field (especially compared to other similar options, like going into the booming AI field)?
Scott Aaronson is Schlumberger Chair of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin and founding director of its Quantum Information Center, currently on leave at OpenAI to work on theoretical foundations of AI safety. He received his bachelor's from Cornell University and his PhD from UC Berkeley. Before coming to UT Austin, he spent nine years as a professor in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. Aaronson's research in theoretical computer science has focused mainly on the capabilities and limits of quantum computers. His first book, Quantum Computing Since Democritus, was published in 2013 by Cambridge University Press. He received the National Science Foundation's Alan T. Waterman Award, the United States PECASE Award, the Tomassoni-Chisesi Prize in Physics, and the ACM Prize in Computing; and he is a Fellow of the ACM and the AAAS. Find out more about him at scottaaronson.blog.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Should we pause AI development until we're sure we can do it safely? (with Joep Meindertsma)
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Should we pause AI development? What might it mean for an AI system to be "provably" safe? Are our current AI systems provably unsafe? What makes AI especially dangerous relative to other modern technologies? Or are the risks from AI overblown? What are the arguments in favor of not pausing — or perhaps even accelerating — AI progress? What is the public perception of AI risks? What steps have governments taken to migitate AI risks? If thoughtful, prudent, cautious actors pause their AI development, won't bad actors still keep going? To what extent are people emotionally invested in this topic? What should we think of AI researchers who agree that AI poses very great risks and yet continue to work on building and improving AI technologies? Should we attempt to centralize AI development?
Joep Meindertsma is a database engineer and tech entrepreneur from the Netherlands. He co-founded the open source e-democracy platform Argu, which aimed to get people involved in decision-making. Currently, he is the CEO of Ontola.io, a software development firm from the Netherlands that aims to give people more control over their data; and he is also working on a specification and implementation for modeling and exchanging data called Atomic Data. In 2023, after spending several years reading about AI safety and deciding to dedicate most of his time towards preventing AI catastrophe, he founded PauseAI and began actively lobbying for slowing down AI development. He's now trying to grow PauseAI and get more people in action. Learn more about him on his GitHub page.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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What should the Effective Altruism movement learn from the SBF / FTX scandal? (with Will MacAskill)
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What are the facts around Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX about which all parties agree? What was the nature of Will's relationship with SBF? What things, in retrospect, should've been red flags about Sam or FTX? Was Sam's personality problematic? Did he ever really believe in EA principles? Does he lack empathy? Or was he on the autism spectrum? Was he naive in his application of utilitarianism? Did EA intentionally install SBF as a spokesperson, or did he put himself in that position of his own accord? What lessons should EA leaders learn from this? What steps should be taken to prevent it from happening again? What should EA leadership look like moving forward? What are some of the dangers around AI that are not related to alignment? Should AI become the central (or even the sole) focus of the EA movement?
William MacAskill is an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford. At the time of his appointment, he was the youngest associate professor of philosophy in the world. He also cofounded the nonprofits Giving What We Can, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and 80,000 Hours, which together have moved over $300 million to effective charities. He's the author of What We Owe The Future, Doing Good Better, and Moral Uncertainty.
Further reading
- Episode 133: The FTX catastrophe (with Byrne Hobart, Vipul Naik, Maomao Hu, Marcus Abramovich, and Ozzie Gooen) — Our previous podcast episode about what happened in the FTX disaster
- "Who is Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) really, and how could he have done what he did? – three theories and a lot of evidence" — Spencer's essay about SBF's personality
- Why They Do It: Inside the Mind of the White-Collar Criminal by Eugene Soltes
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Why are so many people experiencing homelessness in big cities in the U.S., and what can be done to help? (with Kevin Adler)
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How big of a problem is homelessness in the US? How many people in large cities like New York City or Los Angeles are unhoused? What's the best language to use when discussing this issue? How is "homelessness" defined? We usually don't label people without food or water as "foodless" or "waterless"; so why do we label people without homes as "homeless"? Why do we so often look away from the problem, both literally and figuratively? What are the most common events or circumstances that cause people to lose their housing options? What does research show about how unhoused people actually spend their money? What percentage of an average city's unhoused population is represented by the "visible" portion, the people we see on street corners or in tent camps? What percent of unhoused people struggle with mental health problems or substance abuse? What's the average life expectancy of an unhoused person? How much do governments (local, state, and/or federal) spend on homelessness annually? What's the best predictor of whether or not a person will suffer from chronic homelessness? What help — from government institutions, religious organizations, nonprofits, etc. — is available to unhoused people? How hard is it to meet your basic needs when you don't have a place to live? What should we do about unhoused people who refuse help or treatment for mental illnesses or substance abuse? Which nonprofits are working on homelessness? And what kinds of impacts have they made? What interventions are actually effective at solving homelessness on a large scale? What mistakes have the political left and right (in the US) made as they've tried to address homelessness? Demographically speaking, what kinds of people tend to make up unhoused populations in the US?
Kevin F. Adler is a social entrepreneur, sociologist, and author who never learned the word "stranger", and tries to live accordingly. Currently, he is the Founder-In-Residence and Chairman of the Board of Miracle Messages, a nonprofit organization that helps people experiencing homelessness rebuild their social support systems and financial security through family reunification services, a phone buddy program, and the first basic income pilot for unhoused individuals in the US. He is also the bestselling author of When We Walk By: Forgotten Humanity, Broken Systems, and the Role We Can Each Play in Ending Homelessness in America, which Publishers Weekly called "a must-read for anyone interested in solving the problem of homelessness." Kevin's pioneering work on homelessness and "relational poverty" as an overlooked form of poverty has been featured in the New York Times, Washington Post, PBS NewsHour, The Guardian, LA Times, and in his TED Talk. Motivated by his late mother's work teaching at underserved adult schools and nursing homes, and his late uncle's 30 years living on the streets, Kevin believes in a future where everyone is seen as invaluable and interconnected. Learn more about Kevin and his work at his website, kevinfadler.com, follow him on Instagram at @kevinfadler, or email him at kevin@miraclemessages.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Common body language mistakes and how to avoid making them (with Blake Eastman)
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What are some common techniques for quantifying body language? How hard is it to identify poker "tells"? Are there any facial expressions or body movements that have universal meaning? What can be discerned about group dynamics just from watching a meeting over video call? What are the most common body language mistakes people make when going on dates or trying to make friends? What are the strongest indicators of charisma? How do people signal their social status? What are the most effective ways to deal with trolls? How valid is the concept of micro-expressions?
Blake Eastman is the founder of The Nonverbal Group, a behavioral research and education company. With a focus on teaching high-level people skills, Eastman has coached executives and teams, and his company is building the world's largest database of contextually coded human interactions. He also founded Behavioral Robotics, an AI deep tech startup teaching machines to read human behavior, and he's known for conducting the largest behavioral study on poker players through his Beyond Tells project. Follow him on Instagram, Twitter / X, and LinkedIn; or email him at blake@nonverbalgroup.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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True things, useful things, and the differences between them (with Derek Sivers)
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Is nothing objectively true? What kinds of things are we trying to communicate with the stories we tell? Why do we feel the need to take a side on every issue? Which sorts of issues should be tied to our identities? How can we set the definitions for terms in a conversation, if possible? Should people just believe whatever works for them? Is it better to try to compensate for our biases or to reduce them? Should we strive to have lower confidence in ourselves and our abilities? How should we think about assigning blame when something goes wrong? When should we say yes or no to new opportunities? To what degree should we try to optimize our lives?
Derek Sivers is an author of philosophy and entrepreneurship known for his surprising, quotable insights and pithy, succinct writing style. Formerly a musician, programmer, TED speaker, and circus clown, he sold his first company for $22 million and gave all the money to charity. Sivers’ books (How to Live, Hell Yeah or No, Your Music and People, and Anything You Want) and newest projects are at his website: sive.rs
Further reading
- Useful Not True, by Derek Sivers (his forthcoming book)
- Hamas Covenant 1988: The Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Should we widen our moral circles to include animals, insects, and AIs? (with Jeff Sebo)
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How did we end up with factory farming? How many animals do we kill every year in factory farms? When we consider the rights of non-human living things, we tend to focus mainly on the animal kingdom, and in particular on relatively larger, more complex animals; but to what extent should insects, plants, fungi, and even single-celled organisms deserve our moral consideration? Do we know anything about what it's like (or not) to be an AI? To what extent is the perception of time linked to the speed at which one's brain processes information? What's the difference between consciousness and sentience? Should an organism be required to have consciousness and/or sentience before we'll give it our moral consideration? What evidence do we have that various organisms and/or AIs are conscious? What do we know about the evolutionary function of consciousness? What's the "rebugnant conclusion"? What might it mean to "harm" an AI? What can be done by the average person to move the needle on these issues? What should we say to people who think all of this is ridiculous? What is Humean constructivism? What do all of the above considerations imply about abortion? Do we (or any organisms or AIs) have free will? How likely is it that panpsychism is true?
Jeff Sebo is Associate Professor of Environmental Studies; Affiliated Professor of Bioethics, Medical Ethics, Philosophy, and Law; Director of the Animal Studies M.A. Program; Director of the Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program; and Co-Director of the Wild Animal Welfare Program at New York University. He is the author of Saving Animals, Saving Ourselves (2022) and co-author of Chimpanzee Rights (2018) and Food, Animals, and the Environment (2018). He is also an executive committee member at the NYU Center for Environmental and Animal Protection, a board member at Minding Animals International, an advisory board member at the Insect Welfare Research Society, a senior research fellow at the Legal Priorities Project, and a mentor at Sentient Media.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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How to have a positive impact with your career (with Benjamin Hilton)
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What's the best way to think about building an impactful career? Should everyone try to work in fields related to existential risks? Should people find work in a problem area even if they can't work on the very "best" solution within that area? What does it mean for a particular job or career path to be a "good fit" for someone? What is "career capital"? To what extent should people focus on developing transferable skills? What are some of the most useful cross-domain skills? To what extent should people allow their passions and interests to influence how they think about potential career paths? Are there formulas that can be used to estimate how impactful a career will be for someone? And if there are, then how might people misuse them? Should everyone aim to build a high-leverage career? When do people update too much on new evidence?
Benjamin Hilton is a research analyst at 80,000 Hours, where he's written on a range of topics from career strategy to nuclear war and the risks from artificial intelligence. He recently helped re-write the 80,000 Hours career guide alongside its author and 80,000 Hours co-founder, Ben Todd. Before joining 80,000 Hours, he was a civil servant, working as a policy adviser across the UK government in the Cabinet Office, Treasury, and Department for International Trade. He has master’s degrees in economics and theoretical physics, and has published in the fields of physics, history, and complexity science. Learn more about him on the 80,000 Hours website, or email him at benjamin.hilton@80000hours.org.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Spencer's takeaways after 200 episodes (with Spencer Greenberg)
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It's our 200th episode! 🥳 What important things has Spencer gleaned from these 200 episodes? What has he learned about how to have better conversations? On what topics has he updated his views? What makes for a great question?
Thank you, listeners, for listening, following, rating, reviewing, supporting, and communicating with us! You've helped the show continue to grow, improve, and thrive!
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Psychological change in a single session (with Jessica Schleider)
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Is it possible to change someone's life with a really short psychological intervention? What features do turning points in people's lives tend to share in common? What single-session interventions can work well for depression, anxiety, and other mental health issues? What expectations should reasonably be held in advance of a single-session intervention? By what mechanisms do these interventions spark the desire for change in participants? How useful is qualitative research in the social sciences? What can single-session interventions accomplish that longer-term interventions can't? Do single-session interventions for teens work equally well for adults, and vice versa? Are some people more prone to experiencing turning points in their lives than others?
Jessica Schleider is Associate Professor of Psychology at Northwestern University, where she directs the Lab for Scalable Mental Health. Schleider completed her PhD in clinical psychology at Harvard University, her doctoral internship in clinical and community psychology at Yale School of Medicine, and her BA in psychology at Swarthmore College. Her research on brief, scalable interventions for youth depression and anxiety has been recognized via numerous awards, including a National Institutes of Health Director's Early Independence Award; the Association for Behavioral and Cognitive Therapies (ABCT) President's New Researcher Award; and Forbes's "30 Under 30 in Healthcare." Learn more about her work at her lab website, schleiderlab.org.
Further reading
- Project YES: free, anonymous, brief, self-guided mental health tools for teens
- Little Treatments, Big Effects: How to Build Meaningful Moments that Can Transform Your Mental Health, by Jessica Schleider
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant
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Academic group think, free speech norms, and the psychology of time (with Anne Wilson)
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How does psychological time differ from clock time? How does a person's perception of time relate to their personal identity? How does a person's view of their past shape how they view their future? To what extent do people differ in the degree to which they feel like a single, continuous person across time? What effects does a person's perception of time have on their assessment of injustices? Why aren't there more adversarial collaborations in academia? Is academia generally politically left-leaning? How does lack of political diversity in academia compare to (e.g.) lack of gender or economic diversity? Are liberal or progressive academics openly willing to discriminate against conservative academics when, for example, the latter have opportunities for career advancement? Is anyone in the US actually calling for legal changes around free speech laws, or are they only discussing how people ought to be socially ostracized or punished for expressing certain viewpoints? And is there a meaningful difference between legal and social punishments for those who make illegal or taboo statements? Are we in the midst of an ideological war right now? And if so, ought we to quash in-group criticism to avoid giving ammunition to our ideological enemies? Academia seems to have hemorrhaged public trust over the last few decades; so what can be done to begin restoring that trust?
Anne Wilson is a professor of social psychology at Wilfrid Laurier University. Much of her research focuses on self and identity over time both for individual self and collective identities like nation, race, and gender. Her work illuminates the often-motivated malleability of our reconstructions of the past, forecasts of the future, and subjective perceptions of time itself. Her broad focus on motivated reasoning and cognitive bias has also led to more recent research on intergroup misperception, political polarization, and how speech suppression and censorship can inhibit collective bias correction. Follow her on Twitter / X at @awilson_WLU, email her at awilson@wlu.ca, or learn more about her work at her labe website: annewilsonpsychlab.com.
Further reading
- "Prosocial motives underlie scientific censorship by scientists: A perspective and research agenda", by Cory J. Clark, Lee Jussim, Komi Frey, Sean T. Stevens, Musa al-Gharbi, Karl Aquino, J. Michael Bailey, Nicole Barbaro, Roy F. Baumeister, April Bleske-Rechek, David Buss, Stephen Ceci, Marco Del Giudice, Peter H. Ditto, Joseph P. Forgas, David C. Geary, Glenn Geher, Sarah Haider, Nathan Honeycutt, Hrishikesh Joshi, Anna I. Krylov, Elizabeth Loftus, Glenn Loury, Louise Lu, Michael Macy, Chris C. Martin, John McWhorter, Geoffrey Miller, Pamela Paresky, Steven Pinker, Wilfred Reilly, Catherine Salmon, Steve Stewart-Williams, Philip E. Tetlock, Wendy M. Williams, Anne E. Wilson, Bo M. Winegard, George Yancey, and William von Hippel
- "The Future of Memory: Remembering, Imagining, and the Brain", by Daniel L. Schacter, Donna Rose Addis, Demis Hassabis, Victoria C. Martin, R. Nathan Spreng, and Karl K. Szpunar
- "Autobiographical Memory and Conceptions of Self: Getting Better All the Time", by Michael Ross and Anne E. Wilson
- "When Slights Beget Slights: Attachment Anxiety, Subjective Time, and Intrusion of the Relational Past in the Present", by Kassandra Cortes and Anne E. Wilson
- "Crimes of the Past: Defensive Temporal Distancing in the Face of Past In-Group Wrongdoing", by Johanna Peetz, Gregory R. Gunn, and Anne E. Wilson
- "Exploring Gender Bias in Six Key Domains of Academic Science: An Adversarial Collaboration", by Stephen J. Ceci1, Shulamit Kahn, and Wendy M. Williams
- "Political Diversity in Social and Personality Psychology", by Yoel Inbar and Joris Lammers
- Kindly Inquisitors: The New Attacks on Free Thought, by Jonathan Rauch
- Breaking the Social Media Prism: How to Make Our Platforms Less Polarizing, by Chris Bail
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
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How can Stoicism improve your life? (with Bill Irvine)
Read the full transcript here.
Why is Stoicism important and useful today? What are the main ideas of Stoicism? How can you tell if you're "living well"? And if you're not living well, then how can you move yourself in that direction? How can we learn to accept and embrace life as it comes without losing our desire to improve ourselves and the world around us? Do people vary in the degree to which Stoic practices might be beneficial for them? What's the relationship between Stoicism and CBT? What do Stoics have to say about the value or disvalue of emotions? Has Stoicism changed much since its inception? What does it mean to be a "reasonable" person? What are some clear signs that a person is a thinker or a feeler? How might we modify social media and/or ourselves so that our cognitive biases can't as easily be weaponized for political or economic ends? It's easy to see cognitive biases in others; but how can we learn to see them in ourselves?
William B. Irvine is emeritus professor of philosophy at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio, USA. He is the author of eight books that have been translated into more than twenty languages. His A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy played a key role in the Stoic renaissance that has taken place in recent years. His subsequent Stoic Challenge: A Philosopher's Guide to Becoming Tougher, Calmer, and More Resilient provides a strategy for dealing, in proper Stoic manner, with the setbacks we experience in daily living. He is currently at work on a book about thinking critically, but with an open mind, in the age of the internet.
Further reading
- The Enchiridion, by Epictetus
- Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
- Spencer's note: The chapter on social priming should be discounted because it is about research by other people that has not replicated.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
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Is there a grand unified theory of everyone? (with Michael Muthukrishna)
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What is a "theory of everyone"? Do the social sciences currently have enough firm knowledge to synthesize such a theory? Have we been getting smarter as a species over the last few hundred years? Were great historical thinkers smarter than today's greatest minds? Why are governments so prone to corruption? What is the COMPASS framework? What is the "no hyphen" immigration model? What is the "umbrella" immigration model? How can governments change how they think and talk about immigration so that racism is less likely to find its way into immigration policy?
Michael Muthukrishna is an award-winning professor of economic psychology and affiliate in developmental economics and data science at the London School of Economics. His research has been featured in CNN, BBC, Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, The Economist, Scientific American, Time Magazine, Fortune Magazine, and many other news outlets. He is the author of A Theory of Everyone: The New Science of Who We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We're Going. Learn more about him at his website, follow him on Twitter at @mmuthukrishna; or read his writings on his Substack.
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The alternate histories and possible futures of nuclear weapons (with Carl Robichaud)
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Has the world been "lucky" so far with respect to nuclear weapons? How many people have died from nuclear weapons? To what extent do nuclear weapons actually deter aggression? How many countries currently have nuclear weapons or are in the process of building them? How can we discourage continued proliferation of (or even the desire to own) nuclear weapons? How tightly linked are the technologies required to build nuclear energy programs and nuclear weapons programs? How does the International Atomic Energy Agency verify that countries have exactly the nuclear programs and materials they claim to have? What are the best nonproliferation or disarmament interventions being considered right now? What can the average citizen do to make a difference on these enormous issues?
Carl Robichaud co-leads Longview's program on nuclear weapons policy and co-manages Longview's Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund. For more than a decade, Carl led grantmaking in nuclear security at the Carnegie Corporation of New York, a philanthropic fund which grants over $30 million annually to strengthen international peace and security. Carl previously worked with The Century Foundation and the Global Security Institute, where his extensive research spanned arms control, international security policy, and nonproliferation.
Amendments:
- At 00:23:10, Carl said "Stanislav Arkhipov", but he meant to say "Vasily Arkhipov".
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How can AIs know what we want if *we* don't even know? (with Geoffrey Irving)
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What does it really mean to align an AI system with human values? What would a powerful AI need to do in order to do "what we want"? How does being an assistant differ from being an agent? Could inter-AI debate work as an alignment strategy, or would it just result in arguments designed to manipulate humans via their cognitive and emotional biases? How can we make sure that all human values are learned by AIs, not just the values of humans in WEIRD societies? Are our current state-of-the-art LLMs politically left-leaning? How can alignment strategies take into account the fact that our individual and collective values occasionally change over time?
Geoffrey Irving is an AI safety researcher at DeepMind. Before that, he led the Reflection Team at OpenAI, was involved in neural network theorem proving at Google Brain, cofounded Eddy Systems to autocorrect code as you type, and worked on computational physics and geometry at Otherlab, D. E. Shaw Research, Pixar, and Weta Digital. He has screen credits on Ratatouille, WALL•E, Up, and Tintin. Learn more about him at his website, naml.us.
Further reading
- Gandalf: An Educational Game Demonstrating Security Vulnerabilities in Large Language Models
- "AI safety via debate"
- "Claude's Constitution"
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Schemas, goals, values, and the pursuit of happiness (with Jeff Perron)
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What does it mean to have conflicts between our schemas and our values? What is schema therapy? How do schema therapy's claims differ from the "common sense" view that we develop tools for interacting with the world in childhood? How do our "inner critic" and "vulnerable child" connect to our schemas? How do these things differ from the IFS (Internal Family Systems) model of psychotherapy? How do these things map onto Buddhism, Stoicism, and other religious or philosophical traditions? What are the values that lead to a life of happiness? Why are teachings about embracing impermanence and reducing craving found in ancient religious and philosophical traditions but not in modern psychology? And, conversely, why are practices for building "flow" and healthy self-esteem present in modern psychology but not in ancient religious and philosophical traditions?
Jeff Perron is a Clinical Psychologist and Author of The Psychology of Happiness, a Substack with over 15,000 subscribers. He writes detailed guides that explain evidence-based concepts associated with mental well-being and happiness. In his clinical work, he has spent years helping professionals align their lives more closely with their goals and values, supporting them in moving away from unnecessary suffering and towards meaning and fulfillment. Dr. Perron also holds an MBA from Wilfrid Laurier University and in the past has worked in the corporate strategy world. He holds a dual research-clinical PhD in Clinical Psychology from the University of Ottawa and is a Clinical Associate of the Ottawa Institute of CBT.
Further reading
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Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and beyond (with David Burns)
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What was therapy like in the years leading up to the advent of CBT? Has CBT now been over-sold? How does CBT differ from "the power of positive thinking"? How can therapists who use CBT avoid invalidating clients' feelings? When, if ever, should people listen to their negative thoughts? To what extent can a person's good qualities contribute to their depression? Can empathy be learned? Is it possible to cure depression in a single psychotherapy session? What is TEAM-CBT? Is exposure therapy cruel? What are some strategies for silencing the voices in our heads that lead to depression, anxiety, and other negative mental states?
David Burns is Adjunct Clinical Professor Emeritus of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at the Stanford University School of Medicine, where he is involved in research and teaching. He has previously served as Acting Chief of Psychiatry at the Presbyterian / University of Pennsylvania Medical Center (1988) and Visiting Scholar at the Harvard Medical School (1998), and is certified by the National Board of Psychiatry and Neurology. He has received numerous awards, including the A. E. Bennett Award for his research on brain chemistry, the Distinguished Contribution to Psychology through the Media Award, and the Outstanding Contributions Award from the National Association of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapists. He has been named Teacher of the Year three times from the class of graduating residents at Stanford University School of Medicine, and feels especially proud of this award. In addition to his academic research, Dr. Burns has written a number of popular books on mood and relationship problems. His best-selling book, Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy, has sold over 4 million copies in the United States, and many more worldwide. When he is not crunching statistics for his research, he can be found teaching his famous Tuesday evening psychotherapy training group for Stanford students and community clinicians, or giving workshops for mental health professionals throughout the United States and Canada. Learn more about him at feelinggood.com.
Further reading
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There are shrinks, and then there are SUPER-shrinks (with Daryl Chow)
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What is a "super-shrink"? Which factors in the therapist-client relationship are most predictive of positive client outcomes over time: the therapist's personality, the client's personality, the therapist's methodology, or other factor(s)? How can therapists use and teach evidence-based practices and behaviors while also respecting and working within an individual client's belief system? What should clients look for when shopping for therapists? Why do clients often choose to be less open and honest with their therapists than would be beneficial for them? How can non-therapists be good, therapeutic friends to others?
Originally from Singapore, Daryl Chow, MA, Ph.D. is a practicing psychologist based in Perth, Western Australia. He presents to and trains other psychotherapists around the world. He has authored / co-authored several books, including: The First Kiss: Undoing the Intake Model and Igniting First Sessions in Psychotherapy (2018), Better Results: Using Deliberate Practice to Improve Therapeutic Outcomes (APA, 2021), The Field Guide to Better Results (APA, 2023), and Creating Impact (2022). He is also the co-author of many articles, and is co-editor and contributing author of The Write to Recovery: Personal Stories & Lessons About Recovery from Mental Health Concerns. Daryl's newsletter, blogs, and podcast (Frontiers of Psychotherapist Development) are all aimed at inspiring and sustaining practitioners' individualised professional development. Read his writings on Substack; learn more about him on his website, darylchow.com; or email him at info@darylchow.com.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
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Bringing conspiracy theorists back from the brink (with Jesse Richardson)
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Have conspiracy theories been more prevalent, more persuasive, or more convoluted in the last few decades than at other points in human history? Is the presence of conspiracy theorists a feature of every society? The phrase "conspiracy theory" usually implies a false theory, even though some are eventually proven to be true; so how can we update our language to better differentiate between disconfirmed and not-yet-confirmed conspiracy theories? How can people who've really gone down a conspiracy theory rabbit hole come back back from the brink? More generally, what conditions need to be met for a person to change their mind about anything? What are the key motivators of conspiratorial thinking? Why do so many conspiracy theories incorporate strong antisemitic elements? To what degree are conspiracy theorists swayed by arguments from the requisite number of co-conspirators in a conspiracy? How should people research a conspiracy theory? Which personality traits are correlated with conspiratorial thinking? What's a good definition of wisdom? And how could wisdom help us combat the epistemic crisis through which we seem to be living right now? When, if ever, is it useful to approach a topic adversarially? Which would better mitigate the epistemic crisis: education reform or cultural change?
Jesse Richardson is an internationally award-winning creative director and the founder of the nonprofit The School of Thought, which is dedicated to promoting critical thinking, reason, and understanding. The Creative Commons resources The School of Thought has produced have so far reached over 30 million people and are being used in thousands of schools, universities, and companies worldwide. Their latest project is The Conspiracy Test, which is a gamified way to help increase healthy skepticism about conspiracy theories. It can been accessed for free at theconspiracytest.org. Learn more about Jesse and The School of Thought at schoolofthought.org.
Resources:
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Simulacra levels, moral mazes, and low-hanging fruit (with Zvi Mowshowitz)
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Why do we leave so much low-hanging fruit unharvested in so many parts of life? In what contexts is it better to do a thing than to do a symbolic representation of the thing, and vice versa? How can we know when to try to fix a problem that hasn't yet been fixed? In a society, what's the ideal balance of explorers and exploiters? What are the four simulacra levels? What is a moral "maze"? In the context of AI, can solutions for the problems of generation vs. evaluation also provide solutions for the problems of alignment and safety? Could we solve AI safety issues by financially incentivizing people to find exploits (à la cryptocurrencies)?
Zvi Mowshowitz is the author of Don't Worry About the Vase, a widely spanning substack trying to help us think about, model, and improve the world. He is a rationalist thinker with experience as a professional trader, game designer and competitor, and startup founder. His blog spans diverse topics and is currently focused on extensive weekly AI updates. Read his writings at thezvi.substack.com, or follow him on Twitter / X at @TheZvi.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
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Effectively encouraging people to give more (with Josh Greene)
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How can people be encouraged in ways that are more natural and less manipulative to increase the amounts they give to charities? Why are arguments based on the effectiveness of charitable organizations less compelling to most people than we'd like for them to be? What percentages of a social group should be "doves", "hawks", "eagles", or something else? To what extent should our knowledge about our evolutionary history shape our values? Why are children more likely than adults to engage in prosocial behaviors towards strangers? Aside from anecdotal evidence, how do we know that political polarization in the US has been increasing over the last few decades? How can bridges of respect and trust be built between warring political tribes? How can people even begin to undertake the project of building bridges across political divides if they have no interest in understanding or engaging with the other side — especially if they believe that the other side is completely deranged, evil, or otherwise unfit to govern at any level? What is "deep pragmatism"? What might a "psychologically-informed" version of utilitarianism look like?
Josh Greene is Professor of Psychology and a member of the Center for Brain Science faculty at Harvard University. Much of his research has focused on the psychology and neuroscience of moral judgment, examining the interplay between emotion and reason in moral dilemmas. His more recent work studies critical features of individual and collective intelligence. His current neuroscientific research examines how the brain combines concepts to form thoughts and how thoughts are manipulated in reasoning and imagination. His current behavioral research examines strategies for improving social decision-making and alleviating intergroup conflict. He is also the author of Moral Tribes: Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them. Learn more about him at his website, joshua-greene.net.
Further reading
- "Boosting the impact of charitable giving with donation bundling and micromatching" by Lucius Caviola and Joshua Greene
- Giving Multiplier (w/ Clearer Thinking promo code): Use the link yourself, or send it to a friend so that they can get matches on their donations!
- "The Psychology of (In)Effective Altruism" by Lucius Caviola, Stefan Schubert, and Joshua Greene
- Moral Tribes: Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them by Joshua Greene
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
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We can't mitigate AI risks we've never imagined (with Darren McKee)
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How can we find and expand the limitations of our imaginations, especially with respect to possible futures for humanity? What sorts of existential threats have we not yet even imagined? Why is there a failure of imagination among the general populace about AI safety? How can we make better decisions under uncertainty and avoid decision paralysis? What kinds of tribes have been forming lately within AI fields? What are the differences between alignment and control in AI safety? What do people most commonly misunderstand about AI safety? Why can't we just turn a rogue AI off? What threats from AI are unique in human history? What can the average person do to help mitigate AI risks? What are the best ways to communicate AI risks to the general populace?
Darren McKee (MSc, MPA) is the author of the just-released Uncontrollable: The Threat of Artificial Superintelligence and the Race to Save the World. He is a speaker and sits on the Board of Advisors for AIGS Canada, the leading safety and governance network in the country. McKee also hosts the international award-winning podcast, The Reality Check, a top 0.5% podcast on Listen Notes with over 4.5 million downloads. Learn more about him on his website, darrenmckee.info, or follow him on X / Twitter at @dbcmckee.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
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What tools do students really need in order to become successful humans? (with AJ Crabill)
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Why did students struggle so much to learn through video meetings during the locked-down days of the pandemic? What are "student-led restorative practices"? What is "self-connection practice"? What tools are students lacking? When is violence the optimal solution to a problem? What are the biggest problems in education right now? What do students need in order to be successful humans? How can schools give students more agency and autonomy? What happens if students refuse to participate in restorative processes? How do our societal goals shape our educational goals?
AJ Crabill's focus is improving student outcomes. He serves as Conservator at DeSoto, Texas ISD; and during his guidance, DeSoto improved from F ratings in academics, finance, and governance to B ratings. He's also Faculty at the Leadership Institute of Nevada and Director of Governance at the Council of the Great City Schools. He served as Deputy Commissioner at the Texas Education Agency and spearheaded reforms as board chair of Kansas City Public Schools that doubled the percentage of students who are literate and numerate. Crabill is the author of Great On Their Behalf: Why School Boards Fail, How Yours Can Become Effective, and is a recipient of the Education Commission of the State's James Bryant Conant Award. Learn more about him at his website, ajc7.com, or follow him on LinkedIn, YouTube, Facebook, or Twitter / X.
Further reading
- Great on Their Behalf: Why School Boards Fail, How Yours Can Become Effective by AJ Crabill
- Results Now 2.0: The Untapped Opportunities for Swift, Dramatic Gains in Achievement by Mike Schmoker
- Effective School Boards
- Student-Led Restorative Practices
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
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Rethinking what it means to learn math (with Eugenia Cheng)
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What should the goals of math education be? What does it mean to "think well"? Is math real? Why are feelings of bewilderment or confusion so common in math classes but not as common in other subjects? Schools now generally offer reading and writing instruction separately — even though both are important for language use — because the skill sets they require can differ so widely; so how might math education benefit from drawing a similar distinction? What should math classes impart to students that will enable them to engage as citizens with complex or controversial issues? What does it mean to ask good questions in math? Can math teach empathy? What is category theory? Can most people learn most things if they just have the right teacher and/or educational materials?
Eugenia Cheng is a mathematician, educator, author, public speaker, columnist, concert pianist, composer, and artist. She is Scientist In Residence at the School of the Art Institute of Chicago. She won tenure in Pure Mathematics at the University of Sheffield, UK, and is now Honorary Visiting Fellow at City, University of London. She has previously taught at the Universities of Cambridge, Chicago, and Nice, and holds a PhD in pure mathematics from the University of Cambridge. Alongside her research in Category Theory and undergraduate teaching, her aim is to rid the world of "math phobia". Eugenia was an early pioneer of math on YouTube, and her videos have been viewed around 15 million times to date. She has also written several books, including: How to Bake Pi (2015); Beyond Infinity (2017); The Art of Logic (2018); x + y : A Mathematician's Manifesto for Rethinking Gender (2020); The Joy of Abstraction: A Exploration of Math, Category Theory, and Life (2022); Is Math Real? How Simple Questions Lead Us to Mathematics' Deepest Truths (2023); and two children's books: Molly and the Mathematical Mysteries and Bake Infinite Pie with x + y. She also writes the "Everyday Math" column for the Wall Street Journal and has completed mathematical art commissions for Hotel EMC2, 6018 North, the Lubeznik Center, and the Cultural Center, Chicago. She is the founder of the Liederstube, an intimate oasis for art song based in Chicago. As a composer she has been commissioned by GRAMMY-nominated soprano Laura Strickling and is one of the composers for the LYNX Amplify series, setting work by autistic poets who are primarily non-speaking. Learn more about her at her website, eugeniacheng.com.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
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Values, principles, and behavior change (with Eric Zimmer)
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What can we learn from the parable of the two wolves? What is valuism? Do we choose our own intrinsic values? How quickly do our intrinsic values change over time, if at all? How do values and principles relate to one another? Why is behavior change so hard? What conditions need to be met in order for people to change their behavior? How can people make their behavior changes more persistent and less vulnerable to life's ups and downs?
Eric Zimmer is a behavior coach with 20 years of experience, a Certified Interfaith Spiritual Director, a podcast host, and a writer who is endlessly inspired by the quest for a greater understanding of how our minds work and how we can intentionally create the lives we want to live. He has coached hundreds of people from around the world on how to make significant life changes and create habits that serve them well in achieving the goals they've set for themselves. In addition to his work as a behavior coach, he currently hosts the award-winning podcast, The One You Feed, the title of which is based on an old parable about two wolves at battle within us. Learn more about Eric and his work at oneyoufeed.net.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
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Escaping a cult: physically, mentally, and emotionally (with Daniella Mestyanek Young)
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How do the experiences of children born into cults differ from members who join as adults? Why do some cults that grow out of western evangelical Christianity — which is notoriously obsessed with purity culture — often flip the script about sex and turn promiscuity into a virtue? How does age affect the ease with which one internalizes cult programming? To what extent do cult members approve of sexual abuses committed the name of religion? What sort of tactics do cult leaders employ to keep members from leaving? In what ways are militaries like cults? Why has the US military been so slow to fix its culture of rape and abuse of women? What are "thought-stopping" clichés? What defines a cult? What are the often unseen or less tangible consequences of leaving a cult? What sins are considered unforgivable in a cult? What are some examples of cult-like groups that don't necessarily meet every single criterion for cult-ness?
Daniella Mestyanek Young was born a third-generation member of the infamous Children of God religious cult. She grew up being trafficked around the world before escaping that life and moving to America at age 15. She put herself through high school and graduated as college valedictorian before commissioning into the US Army as an intelligence officer. She deployed twice to Afghanistan (in 2011 and 2014) and became a member of one of the Army's first Female Engagement Teams (an experiment that put women into deliberate ground combat for the first time in Army history and eventually led to the repeal of the sexist combat ban and the gender desegregation of the entire US military). She is a proud daughter of the 101st (the unit featured in Band of Brothers), a recipient of the Presidential Volunteer Service Award from President Obama, and is currently pursuing a Master of Arts in Organizational Psychology at the Harvard Extension School where she focuses her research on group behavior, social norms, culture, extremism, leadership demagoguery, and cults. Learn more about her at her website, uncultureyourself.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Win-Win vs. Moloch, the many-headed monster that may consume us all (with Liv Boeree)
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Who's Moloch? And what do we mean when we call something "Molochian"? What does healthy competition look like? How can we avoid or extricate ourselves from Molochian scenarios? Are our instincts about fairness and unfairness usually accurate? Is it possible for today's social media giants to create products that people want to use and that are actually good for people to use? What kinds of problems could conceivably be solved by "trustless" solutions? or "high-trust" solutions? Where do you fall on the "rationality-to-woo" spectrum? When do we not want to find rational explanations for mysterious phenomena? What kinds of new rational explanations might we find if we opened our minds to more "woo"?
Liv Boeree is one of the UK’s most successful poker players, winning multiple titles during her professional career, including a European Poker Tour Championship and World Series of Poker bracelet. Originally trained in astrophysics, she now works as an educator and researcher specializing in the intersection of game theory, technology, and catastrophic risk reduction. Her main focus areas at present are the risks posed by artificial intelligence and other exponential technologies. She is also a co-founder of Raising for Effective Giving (REG), an advisory organization that uses scientific methods to identify and fundraise for the most globally impactful charitable causes. Her latest project is the newly launched Win-Win Podcast, which explores the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Follow her on Twitter at @liv_boeree.
Further reading
- Icarus, a documentary about doping in sports
- "Meditations on Moloch" by Scott Alexander
- Finite and Infinite Games by James Carse
- Win-Win with Liv Boeree (podcast)
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
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Do technological innovations yield net gains in the long run? (with Justin Smith-Ruiu)
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What are the limits of tech solutionism? Do technological innovations create as many problems as they solve? Or, in other words, do technological innovations improve the world on average over time? Are humans living in the 21st century actually worse off than those that lived in the 11th century? What's the difference between "art" and "content"? If image-generating AIs just produce images that are stylistic averages across all of their training data, then is it even theoretically possible for such models to create art that's edgy, avant-garde, or off the beaten path? Is cinema dead? Is literature dead? Are the humanities dying, especially in the US? And might that be a significant contributing factor to the withering of democracy in the US?
Justin Smith-Ruiu, formerly known as Justin E.H. Smith, is a writer based in Paris. He writes speculative fiction, documentary metafiction, criticism, literary non-fiction, and poetry, and also translates poetry. In 2019-2020, he was the John and Constance Birkelund Fellow at the Cullman Center for Scholars and Writers of the New York Public Library. He is also a professor of philosophy in the department of history and philosophy of science at the Université Paris Cité. Learn more about him and read his writings at www.the-hinternet.com
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Money, status, power, and sex in nightclubs around the world (with Ashley Mears)
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What interesting social phenomena can be observed at nightclubs? What are "whales" hoping to achieve by spending big at nightclubs? Trying too obviously to increase social status tends to backfire; so how can people buy status without appearing to do so? What do "promoters" gain from these social interactions? How does their work differ from or overlap with sex work? How can they make money without being seen as "gold-diggers"? What ethnicities tend to comprise these nightclub groups? How do wealthy people attempt to navigate the norms of the various elite substrata which expect them both to put their wealth on display and to do so without being ostentatious or gaudy?
Ashley Mears is a professor of sociology and women's, gender, and sexuality studies at Boston University, and she's the co-founder of the Ethnographic Cafe and BU's Precarity Lab. She received her BA in sociology from the University of Georgia in 2002 and her PhD in sociology at New York University in 2009. Working primarily at the intersections of economic and cultural sociology and gender, she studies how societies value people and things; she researches value and exchange in the context of labor, beauty, free stuff, elites, consumption, and social media; and she has written on theory and qualitative methods. She has held visiting positions at the University of Amsterdam and the Central European University in Budapest. In 2021-2022, she was a Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study in Budapest. She currently serves on the editorial boards of American Sociological Review and Qualitative Sociology. Learn more about her at her website, ashleymears.com.
Further reading
- Very Important People: Status and Beauty in the Global Party Circuit by Ashley Mears
- " The Great Happiness Space: Tale of an Osaka Love Thief "
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Is bad air quality slowly harming us? (with Richard Bruns)
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How bad is the air quality in the US and around the world? What's the evidence that certain kinds of particles in the air lead to negative health outcomes? Are there differences in air quality among urban, suburban, and rural areas? And if so, then to what extent are negative health outcomes attributable to air quality rather than to (e.g.) poverty, education, or other confounding factors? What are "PM 2.5" particles? Can some particles be too small to matter? Are all particles of a certain size harmful, or only specific types of particles? Do damaging particles accumulate in the body over time? What can the average person do to reduce their exposure to unhealthy air? Opening windows in our homes can let in fresh air, but it can also let in harmful particles; so is opening windows a good idea or not? How relatively bad are trans fats and saturated fats? Does the FDA regulate drugs too much or not enough? Why do side effect labels usually list all possible side effects without any indication of how common those side effects are? What should a bureacracy be and not be? How can bureacracies train employees to follow rules and produce consistent outcomes without stifling individual initiative and creativity?
Richard Bruns is an economist who specializes in cost-benefit analysis of novel public health policy. He is currently a Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, which is an Open-Philanthropy-funded think tank devoted to protecting the world from catastrophic biological risks. For the past few years, much of his work has been focused on how indoor air quality improvements can protect us from disease. Before that, he was an economist in the food part of the Food and Drug Administration. Feel free to email him at bruns@jhu.edu about any topic in this episode, or learn more about him at his website.
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Journalism in the age of AI (with Dylan Matthews)
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Will large language models (LLMs) replace journalists any time soon? On what types of writing tasks do LLMs outperform humans? Have the US news media become less truth-seeking in recent decades? Or is truth-seeking behavior merely an aberration from a norm of propagandizing? How should we redistribute economic surplus from AI? Have any AI companies committed to a Windfall Clause? Instead of bothering to negotiate with us, wouldn't a superintelligent AI be able to get much more done by first wiping us all out? What are some subtler or less-well-known ways subscription models reshape incentive structures for journalists? Why is collective action so hard?
Dylan Matthews is a senior correspondent at Vox, where he cofounded Future Perfect, a section devoted to exploring ways to do good. He writes frequently about economics, philanthropy, global health, and more. You can email him at dylan@vox.com.
NOTE: This episode was recorded live at EAGxNYC!
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Experiments for enlightenment and fundamental wellbeing (with Jeffery Martin)
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Is enlightenment the same as being happy all the time? Or being at peace all the time? Or something else? What is "fundamental wellbeing"? What are the "locations" within fundamental wellbeing? What is "persistent non-symbolic experience"? How effective is the Finders Course? Are control groups necessary when researching enlightenment?
Jeffery Martin is the founding director of the Center for the Study of Non-Symbolic Consciousness (nonsymbolic.org) and a research professor and director of the Transformative Technology Lab (transtechlab.org). Prior to his current affiliation with Stanford University, he was Distinguished University Professor, William James Professor of Consciousness, and Dean of Research at Sofia University. He spent the last 15+ years conducting the largest international study on persistent non-symbolic experience (PNSE) — or as it's publicly known, Fundamental Wellbeing — which includes the types of consciousness commonly known as: persistent awakening, enlightenment, nonduality, the peace that passeth understanding, unitive experience, and hundreds of others. He has authored, co-authored, or co-edited over 20 books and numerous other publications. Learn more about him at his website, drjefferymartin.com.
Further reading
- "Effects of Two Online Positive Psychology and Meditation Programs on Persistent Self-Transcendence" by Martin et al.
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Mothers who harm their children for attention (with Andrea Dunlop)
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What is Munchausen syndrome? How does Munchausen syndrome differ from malingering? Does Munchausen usually correlate with lying or exaggerating in other contexts (i.e., pathological lying)? What is "Munchausen by Proxy" (AKA "factitious disorder imposed on another", or FDIA)? Why are women the offenders in the overwhelming majority of cases? What are some consistent patterns of behavior exhibited by people with MBP? What is a "reality distortion field"? How do people with MBP tend to deflect requests for facts? Do such people believe their own stories? How does MBP relate to sociopathy or psychopathy? How common is MBP?
Andrea Dunlop is an author and podcaster based out of Seattle, WA with two decades of experience in book publishing. She is the author of four novels: Losing the Light (February 2016; Atria), She Regrets Nothing (February 2018; Atria), We Came Here to Forget (July 2019; Atria), and Women Are the Fiercest Creatures (March 2023; Zibby Books). Andrea is host and creator of the popular true crime investigative podcast about Munchausen by Proxy called Nobody Should Believe Me, which was a New & Noteworthy pick for Apple's Dark Side collection. Her non-fiction book on the same topic is forthcoming from St. Martin's Press. She is a member of the American Professional Society on the Abuse of Children's Munchausen by Proxy Committee and is the founder of Munchausen Support, which is dedicated to providing resources for frontline professionals, families, and survivors dealing with MBP. Learn more about her on her website, andreadunlop.net.
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Is evolutionary psychology just a bunch of "just so" stories? (with Geoffrey Miller)
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Why do even people who accept evolutionary explanations for most biological phenomena often push back against evolutionary explanations for human psychology? To what extent should humans adjust their behavior in light of evopsych findings? How do evopsych researchers avoid formulating "just so" stories to explain specific behaviors? What can we infer about human behavior from the behaviors of chimps, bonobos, gorillas, or orangutans? What is the evopsych view of incest (which most people seem to find disgusting but which is also one of the most popular porn categories)? Are emotions primarily shaped by evolution or by culture? How can evopsych findings be applied to everyday things like dating? A safely-aligned AI system should presumably support the majority of human values; so how should AI alignment researchers think about religious values, which are generally held by the majority of humans but which differ radically in their specifics from group to group? What are some other rarely-considered AI alignment blind spots?
Geoffrey Miller is an evolutionary psychologist best known for his books The Mating Mind (2001), Mating Intelligence (2008), Spent (2009), and Mate (2015). He also has over 110 academic publications addressing sexual selection, mate choice, signaling theory, fitness indicators, consumer behavior, marketing, intelligence, creativity, language, art, music, humor, emotions, personality, psychopathology, and behavior genetics. He holds a B.A. in biology and psychology from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in cognitive psychology from Stanford University, and he is a tenured associate professor at University of New Mexico. Follow him on Twitter at @primalpoly, or find out more about him on his website, primalpoly.com.
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Systems of governance built on prediction markets (with Robin Hanson)
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What is futarchy? Why does it seem to be easier to find social innovations rather than technical innovations? How does it differ from democracy? In what ways might a futarchy be gamed? What are some obstacles to implementing futarchy? Do we actually like for our politicians to be hypocritical to some degree? How mistaken are we about our own goals for social, political, and economic institutions? Do we enjoy fighting (politically) more than actually governing well and improving life for everyone? What makes something "sacred"? What is a tax career agent?
Robin Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He has a doctorate in social science from California Institute of Technology, master's degrees in physics and philosophy from the University of Chicago, and nine years experience as a research programmer at Lockheed and NASA. He has over ninety academic publications in major journals across a wide variety of fields and has written two books: The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth (2016), and The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life (2018, co-authored with Kevin Simler). He has pioneered prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, since 1988; and he suggests "futarchy" as a form of governance based on prediction markets. He also coined the phrase "The Great Filter" and has recently numerically estimated it via a model of "Grabby Aliens". Learn more about Robin at his GMU page or follow him on the-website-formerly-known-as-Twitter at @robinhanson.
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Using metacognitive therapy to break the habit of rumination (with Pia Callesen)
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What is metacognitive therapy? How does MCT differ from CBT, DBT, and other mental health therapy paradigms? How do we know we're spending time worrying about the right things? How much time spent worrying is actually useful? How aware are we of our own tendencies to ruminate on certain negative thoughts? Does MCT avoid all content-based problem-solving? What is the state of the evidence for MCT?
Dr. Pia Callesen is one of Denmark's most educated and experienced metacognitive psychologists. She has more than 25 years of experience as a therapist and has completed the official 2-year metacognitive certification training in Manchester at the MCT Institute and the subsequent 1-year advanced level masterclass in Oxford by Professor Adrian Wells. At the end of 2016, she completed her PhD at Manchester University with Professor Adrian Wells. The PhD contained a large randomised controlled trial with research into the effects of metacognitive therapy treatment for depression.
Resources:
- CEKTOS: Pia's clinic that offers online 1:1 and groups
- The international list of MCTI Registered therapists
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How quickly is AI advancing? And should you be working in the field? (with Danny Hernandez)
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Along what axes and at what rates is the AI industry growing? What algorithmic developments have yielded the greatest efficiency boosts? When, if ever, will we hit the upper limits of the amount of computing power, data, money, etc., we can throw at AI development? Why do some people seemingly become fixated on particular tasks that particular AI models can't perform and draw the conclusion that AIs are still pretty dumb and won't be taking our jobs any time soon? What kinds of tasks are more or less easily automatable? Should more people work on AI? What does it mean to "take ownership" of our friendships? What sorts of thinking patterns employed by AI engineers can be beneficial in other areas of life? How can we make better decisions, especially about large things like careers and relationships?
Danny Hernandez was an early AI researcher at OpenAI and Anthropic. He's best known for measuring macro progress in AI. For example, he helped show that the compute of the largest training runs was growing at 10x per year between 2012 and 2017. He also helped show an algorithmic equivalent of Moore's Law that was faster, and he's done work on scaling laws and mechanistic interpretability of learning from repeated data. He is currently focused on alignment research.
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Can we choose who we are? (with Gavin Leech)
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Can we really deeply change who we are? Can we choose our preferences, intrinsic values, or personality more generally? What are some interventions people might use to make big changes in their lives? Why might it be harder to be a generalist than a specialist? What are some of the most well-known "findings" from the social sciences that have failed to replicate? Do some replications go too far? Should we just let Twitter users take over the peer-review process? Why hasn't forecasting made major inroads into (e.g.) government yet? Why does it seem like companies sometimes commission forecasts and then ignore them? How worried should we be about deepfakes?
Gavin Leech cofounded the consultancy Arb Research. He's also a PhD candidate in AI at the University of Bristol, a head of camp at the European Summer Programme on Rationality, and a blogger at gleech.org. He's internet famous for collecting hundreds of failed replications in psychology and for having processed most of Isaac Asimov's nonfiction of the mid-twentieth-century to score his predictive performance.
Amendments:
- Gavin says: "Google shut down their 2007 market, Prophit, but they started another one in 2020 called Gleangen. It's also not going well."
Further reading
- "Long-term stability in the Big Five personality traits in adulthood" by Johanna Rantanen, Riitta-Leena Metsäpelto, Taru Feldt, Lea Pulkkinen, and Katja Kokko
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Normalizing catastrophes and catastrophizing normalcy (with Mike Pesca)
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Besides the need to attract attention, what are some other drivers behind the news media's tendency to "catastrophize the normal"? To what extent does paltering take place on the politically left and right ends of the new media spectrum? Should journalists try to be as objective and unbiased as possible, or should they strive to make a difference in the world by highlighting particular issues that are important to them? Is the US on the verge of a civil war? Are prophecies of civil war self-fulfilling? Is it (and should it be) okay to reference certain taboo phrases by saying them explicitly? To what extent do journalists pull their punches because they fear angering the wrong crowd?
Mike Pesca is host of The Gist, the longest running daily news podcast in history, consistently ranked in Apple's Top 20 Daily News charts. During his 10 years as a correspondent for NPR, Mike guest hosted All Things Considered and the news quiz Wait, Wait, Don’t Tell Me. His work has been featured on This American Life, Radiolab, and Planet Money. He has frequently appeared on MSNBC, CNN, and The PBS Newshour, and written for The Washington Post, The Guardian, GQ, Slate, and Baseball Prospectus. Listen to Mike on The Gist, or follow him on Twitter at @pescami.
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What's wrong with society, and how can we fix it? (with Tim Urban)
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What's wrong with society? And what can we do to fix it? Centuries ago, a person's grandparents lived in a world that was basically identical to that person's world; but what are the implications of living in a time when the rate of technological change is such that our grandparents' world was almost nothing like ours, and ours will be almost nothing like our grandchildren's? How do Tim's concepts of the "primitive mind" and the "higher mind" map onto System 1 and System 2 thinking types? What thinking styles exist along the spectrum from primitive mind to higher mind? Why are there either lots of Nazis or virtually none at all? Are there more "golems" or "genies" in the world right now? Are the American political left and right wings just equal but opposite groups, or are there significant asymmetries between them? How does social justice activism differ from "wokeness"? What is "idea supremacy"? Does liberalism need to be destroyed and rebuilt from scratch (perhaps as something else entirely) or merely repaired and revamped? Is illiberalism the biggest threat facing the world right now — bigger even than AI, climate change, etc.?
Tim Urban is the writer/illustrator and co-founder of Wait But Why, a long-form, stick-figure-illustrated website with over 600,000 subscribers and a monthly average of half a million visitors. He has produced dozens of viral articles on a wide range of topics, from artificial intelligence to social anxiety to humans becoming a multi-planetary species. Tim's 2016 TED main stage talk is the third most-watched TED talk in history with 67 million views. In 2023, Tim published his bestselling book What's Our Problem? A Self Help Book for Societies.
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AI creativity and love (with Joel Lehman)
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Where does innovation come from? How common is it for "lone wolf" scientists to make large leaps in innovation by themselves? How can we imbue AIs with creativity? Or, conversely, how can we apply advances in AI creativity to our own personal creative processes? How do creative strategies that work well for individuals differ from creative strategies that work well for groups? To what extent are models like DALL-E and ChatGPT "creative"? Can machines love? Or can they only ever pretend to love? We've worried a fair bit about AI misalignment; but what should we do about the fact that so many humans are misaligned with humanity's own interests? What might it mean to be "reverent" towards science?
Joel Lehman is a machine learning researcher interested in algorithmic creativity, AI safety, artificial life, and intersections of AI with psychology and philosophy. Most recently he was a research scientist at OpenAI co-leading the Open-Endedness team (studying algorithms that can innovate endlessly). Previously he was a founding member of Uber AI Labs, first employee of Geometric Intelligence (acquired by Uber), and a tenure track professor at the IT University of Copenhagen. He co-wrote with Kenneth Stanley a popular science book called Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned on what AI search algorithms imply for individual and societal accomplishment. Follow him on Twitter at @joelbot3000 or email him at lehman.154@gmail.com.
Further reading
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Glimpses of enlightenment through nondual meditation (with Michael Taft and Jeremy Stevenson)
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How does nondual meditation differ from other forms of meditation? Is nonduality the sort of thing a person can just "get" immediately? What value is provided by the more effortful, less "sudden" forms of meditation? Is there such a thing as full or complete enlightenment? And what would such a state entail? To what extent do nondual meditation teachers agree about what nonduality is? Are glimpses of enlightenment available to everyone? How long does it usually take a person to stabilize their ability to return to a nondual way of seeing the world? What are some common ways people get "stuck" while learning nondual meditation? How important are meditation retreats? Though the paths themselves are obviously quite distinct from one another, do all forms of meditation ultimately share a common goal? How are all of these things related to spirituality or religion?
Michael Taft is a teacher of nondual meditation and host of the Deconstructing Yourself podcast and website. He is the author of The Mindful Geek, and co-founder of The Alembic, a Berkeley-based center for meditation, movement, citizen neuroscience, and visionary culture. Having lived all over the world and practiced deeply in several traditions, Michael currently makes his home in California. Email him at michaeltaft@gmail.com, or learn more about him at his website, deconstructingyourself.com.
Jeremy Stevenson hails from Adelaide, Australia, and has a PhD in clinical psychology with a dissertation focused on the effects of self-compassion on social anxiety. During his PhD he became intensely interested in meditation, sitting several shorter retreats which eventually culminated in sitting longer retreats, including a 3-month retreat in Nepal. He is now working as a clinical psychologist as well as doing research work for Spark Wave. His ongoing meditation interest is the perplexing skill of nondual mindfulness. Email him at jeremy.david.stevenson@gmail.com, or listen to his previous episode on this podcast here.
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Crumbling institutions, culture wars, and the dismissal economy (with Ashley Hodgson)
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What is the New Enlightenment? What might it mean to improve our epistemics with regard to institutions? How should we fix imbalanced salience in contexts where misinformation is a problem (like news media)? How have the economics of institutions deteriorated? How can we continually reinvigorate systems so that they remain ungameable and resistant to runaway feedback loops? In the context of government in particular, how can we move away from "one dollar, one vote" and back towards "one person, one vote"? At what levels or layers should institutional interventions be applied? What can we do to increase trust across social differences and reduce contempt among groups? Under what conditions is it rational to feel contempt for an out-group? How can we make conflict and "dunking" less appealing, and make openmindedness and careful consideration more appealing? What is the "dismissal" economy? How can we deal with information overload? How might the adversarial economic model be used to improve academia?
Ashley Hodgson is an Associate Professor of Economics and a YouTuber. She teaches behavioral economics, digital industries, health care economics, and blockchain economics. Her YouTube channel, The New Enlightenment, explores topics related to economics, governance, and epistemics — that is, the determination of truth and validity — in a world of social media and increasing power concentration. She also has another YouTube channel with her economics lectures.
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Virtual reality, simulation theory, consciousness, and identity (with David Chalmers)
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What does philosophy have to say about virtual reality (VR)? Under what conditions is "normal" reality preferable to VR? To what extent are VR experiences "real"? How likely is it that we're living in a simulation? What implications would the discovery that we're living in a simulation have for our beliefs about reality? How common is Bayesian thinking among philosophers? How should we think about identity over time if selves can be split or duplicated? What might it look like for our conception of identity to undergo a "fall from Eden"? What do people mean when they say that consciousness is an illusion? Finding a grand unified theory of physics seems at least in principle the sort of thing that science can do, even if we haven't done it yet; but can science even in principle solve the hard problem of consciousness? Might consciousness just be a fundamental law of the universe, an axiom which we must accept but for which there might be no explanation? Is consciousness needed in order to attain certain levels of biological evolution? How conscious (or not) are our current AI models? Statistically speaking, what are the most prevalent views held by philosophers?
David Chalmers is University Professor of Philosophy and Neural Science and co-director of the Center for Mind, Brain, and Consciousness at New York University. He is the author of The Conscious Mind (1996) and Reality+ (2022). He is known for formulating the "hard problem" of consciousness, which inspired Tom Stoppard's play The Hard Problem, and for the idea of the "extended mind," which says that the tools we use can become parts of our minds. Learn more about him at consc.net.
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Deep canvassing, street epistemology, and other tools of persuasion (with David McRaney)
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What is persuasion, and what is it not? How does persuasion differ from coercion? What is the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion? How are the concepts of assimilation and accommodation related to persuasion? Motivated reasoning is usually seen as a cognitive bias or error; but what if all reasoning is motivated? Are we motivated more by physical death or social death? How much evidence would Flat-Earthers need in order to be convinced that Earth is round? What are "deep" canvassing and "street" epistemology? In what contexts are they most effective? Under what conditions is persuasion morally acceptable?
David McRaney is a science journalist fascinated with brains, minds, and culture. He created the podcast You Are Not So Smart based on his 2009 internationally bestselling book of the same name and its followup, You Are Now Less Dumb. Before that, he cut his teeth as a newspaper reporter covering Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast and in the Pine Belt region of the Deep South. Later, he covered things like who tests rockets for NASA, what it is like to run a halfway home for homeless people who are HIV-positive, and how a family sent their kids to college by making and selling knives. Since then, he has been an editor, photographer, voiceover artist, television host, journalism teacher, lecturer, and tornado survivor. Most recently, after finishing his latest book, How Minds Change, he wrote, produced, and recorded a six-hour audio documentary exploring the history of the idea and the word: genius. Learn more about him at davidmcraney.com, or follow him on Twitter at @davidmcraney.
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Will AI destroy civilization in the near future? (with Connor Leahy)
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Does AI pose a near-term existential risk? Why might existential risks from AI manifest sooner rather than later? Can't we just turn off any AI that gets out of control? Exactly how much do we understand about what's going on inside neural networks? What is AutoGPT? How feasible is it to build an AI system that's exactly as intelligent as a human but no smarter? What is the "CoEm" AI safety proposal? What steps can the average person take to help mitigate risks from AI?
Connor Leahy is CEO and co-founder of Conjecture, an AI alignment company focused on making AI systems boundable and corrigible. Connor founded and led EleutherAI, the largest online community dedicated to LLMs, which acted as a gateway for people interested in ML to upskill and learn about alignment. With capabilities increasing at breakneck speed, and our ability to control AI systems lagging far behind, Connor moved on from the volunteer, open-source Eleuther model to a full-time, closed-source model working to solve alignment via Conjecture.
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Is AI development moving too fast or not fast enough? (with Reid Hoffman)
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Many people who work on AI safety advocate for slowing the rate of development; but might there be any advantages in speeding up AI development? Which fields are likely to be impacted the most (or the least) by AI? As AIs begin to displace workers, how can workers make themselves more valuable? How likely is it that AI assistants will become better at defending against users who are actively trying to circumvent assistants' guardrails? What effects would the open-sourcing of AI code, models, or training data likely have? How do actual or potential AI intelligence levels affect AI safety calculus? Are there any good solutions to the problem that only ethically-minded people are likely to apply caution and restraint in AI development? What will a world with human-level AGI look like?
An accomplished entrepreneur, executive, and investor, Reid Hoffman has played an integral role in building many of today's leading consumer technology businesses including as the co-founder of LinkedIn. He is the host of the podcasts Masters of Scale and Possible. He is the co-author of five best-selling books: The Startup of You, The Alliance, Blitzscaling, Masters of Scale, and Impromptu.
Note from Reid: Possible [the podcast] is back this summer with a three-part miniseries called "AI and The Personal," which launches on June 21. Featured guests use AI, hardware, software, and their own creativity to better people's daily lives. Subscribe here to get the series: https://link.chtbl.com/thepossiblepodcast
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Where philosophy meets the real world (with Peter Singer)
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How have animal rights and the animal rights movement changed in the last few decades? How has the scale of animal product consumption grown relative to human population growth? On what principles ought animal ethics to be grounded? What features of human psychology enable humans to empathize with and dislike animal suffering and yet also eat animal products regularly? How does the agribusiness industry convince people to make choices that go against their own values? What are some simple changes people can make to their diets if they're not ready yet to go completely vegetarian or vegan but still want to be less responsible for animal suffering? What attitudes should vegetarians and vegans hold towards meat-eaters? When, if ever, is it possible to have done "enough", morally speaking? What are the things that matter intrinsically to humans and other sentient beings? What is the most complex organism that is apparently not conscious? Will we ever have the technology to scan someone's brain and measure how much pleasure or suffering they're experiencing? How uncertain should we be about moral uncertainty? What should we eat if it's eventually discovered that plants can suffer?
Peter Singer is a philosopher and the Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics in the University Center for Human Values at Princeton University. His work focuses on the ethics of human treatment of animals; he is often credited with starting the modern animal rights movement; and his writings have significantly influenced the development of the Effective Altruism movement. In 1971, Peter co-founded the Australian Federation of Animal Societies, now called Animals Australia, the country's largest and most effective animal organization; and in 2013, he founded The Life You Can Save, an organization named after his 2009 book, which aims to spread his ideas about why we should be doing much more to improve the lives of people living in extreme poverty and how we can best do this. In 2021, he received the Berggruen Prize for Philosophy and Culture for his "widely influential and intellectually rigorous work in reinvigorating utilitarianism as part of academic philosophy and as a force for change in the world". He has written, co-authored, edited, or co-edited more than 50 books, including Animal Liberation, The Life You Can Save, Practical Ethics, The Expanding Circle, Rethinking Life and Death, One World, The Ethics of What We Eat (with Jim Mason), and The Point of View of the Universe (with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek); and his writings have been translated into more than 25 languages. Find out more about him at his website, petersinger.info, or follow him on Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Large language models, deep peace, and the meaning crisis (with Jim Rutt)
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What are large language models (LLMs) actually doing when they churn out text? Are they sentient? Is scale the only difference among the various GPT models? Google has seemingly been the clear frontrunner in the AI space for many years; so how did they fail to win the race to LLMs? And why are other competing companies having such a hard time catching their LLM tech up to OpenAI's? What are the implications of open-sourcing LLM code, models, and corpora? How concerned should we be about bad actors using open source LLM tools? What are some possible strategies for combating the coming onslaught of AI-generated spam and misinformation? What are the main categories of risks associated with AIs? What is "deep" peace? What is "the meaning crisis"?
Jim Rutt is the host of the Jim Rutt Show podcast, past president and co-founder of the MIT Free Speech Alliance, executive producer of the film "An Initiation to Game~B", and the creator of Network Wars, the popular mobile game. Previously he has been chairman of the Santa Fe Institute, CEO of Network Solutions, CTO of Thomson-Reuters, and chairman of the computer chip design software company Analog Design Automation, among various business and not-for-profit roles. He is working on a book about Game B and having a great time exploring the profits and perils of the Large Language Models.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Censorship, cancel culture, and truth-seeking (with Iona Italia)
When is a certain speech act an opinion versus a call to action? Does that distinction matter for censorship purposes? Why does it seem that human behavior tends towards censorship rather than towards freedom of expression? Is feeling emotionally or politically harmed a valid reason for censoring certain speech acts? Will it always be the case that, given enough time, truth will win out over ignorance, bullshit, misinformation, and lies? What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for creating a society in which truth wins at the end of the day? Why are citizens so often attracted to populist and/or fascist ideologies and political parties? What value does religion provide to a society?
Iona Italia is the editor-in-chief of Areo Magazine and the host of its Two for Tea podcast. Iona is the author of two books: Anxious Employment (a study of eighteenth-century essayists) and Our Tango World (sociological and philosophical musings on dance and life). She holds a PhD in English Literature from Cambridge University and publishes weekly creative non-fiction pieces on her Substack, The Second Swim. Her background includes a decade in academe and a 12-year career as a tango dancer and teacher. Iona lives in London with four old friends. She loves dancing, running, choral singing, chess, dogs, and sci-fi.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
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- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Why are birth rates plummeting? And how much does it matter? (with Malcolm & Simone Collins)
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What is pro-natalism? How fast are birth rates falling around the world? How long will it take for us to really feel the effects of population collapse? What are the primary drivers of population collapse? How does the current difficulty of raising children compare to other periods in history? What roles do various religions and philosophies play in population dynamics? What are some non-coercive ways to encourage population growth? What constitutes an intergenerationally durable culture?
Simone and Malcolm Collins are a husband-wife team driving the pronatalist movement, which seeks to bring attention to the risks of a hard landing on demographic collapse. In addition to running the Pronatalist Foundation, the Collins Institute, and a collection of private equity companies, they enjoy writing, having so far published five bestselling books (The Pragmatist's Guide series). To hear more from them, check out their podcast (on Substack, YouTube, or whenever you listen to podcasts), follow them on Twitter at @SimoneHCollins, or check out their books:
- The Pragmatist's Guide to Crafting Religion
- The Pragmatist's Guide to Governance
- The Pragmatist's Guide to Sexuality
- The Pragmatist's Guide to Relationships
- The Pragmatist's Guide to Life
Further reading:
- Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years: Metaculus "pro" forecasters' estimates of global fertility rates over the next 100 years
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Science is learning from start-ups (with Adam Marblestone)
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What are focused research organizations? Which kinds of research projects lend themselves to the FRO model? Researchers in academia frequently complain about the incentive structures around funding and publishing; so how do FROs change those dynamics? Why must FROs be time-limited, especially if they're successful? Who's in charge in an FRO? How does "field-building" help to improve science? What effects might large language models have on science?
Adam Marblestone is the CEO of Convergent Research. He's been launching Focused Research Organizations (FROs) such as E11 bio and Cultivarium. He also serves on the boards of several non-profits pursuing new methods of funding and organizing scientific research including Norn Group and New Science. Previously, he was a Schmidt Futures Innovation Fellow, a consultant for the Astera Institute, a Fellow with the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a research scientist at Google DeepMind, Chief Strategy Officer of the brain-computer interface company Kernel, a research scientist at MIT, a PhD student in biophysics with George Church and colleagues at Harvard, and a theoretical physics student at Yale. He also previously helped to start companies like BioBright and advised foundations such as the Open Philanthropy Project. His work has been recognized with a Technology Review 35 Innovators Under 35 Award (2018), a Fannie and John Hertz Foundation Fellowship (2010), and a Goldwater Scholarship (2008). Learn more about him at adammarblestone.org.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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The range of human perceptual experiences (with Anil Seth)
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How does the world differ from our perception of it? Where is color located? Is the self constructed in the same way our concept of the world is constructed? Aside from being interesting bits of trivia, why does any of that really matter? In what ways does perception most often differ among humans? How different are art and science?
Anil Seth is a neuroscientist, author, and public speaker who has pioneered research into the brain basis of consciousness for more than twenty years. His mission is to advance the science of consciousness, and to use its insights for the benefits of society, technology, and medicine. He is Professor of Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience at the University of Sussex; Co-Director of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research Program on Brain, Mind, and Consciousness; a European Research Council Advanced Investigator; and Editor-in-Chief of the academic journal Neuroscience of Consciousness. He has published more than 180 research papers and has been recognized by Web of Science, over several years, as being in the top 0.1% of researchers worldwide. A former Wellcome Trust Engagement Fellow, his two TED talks have been viewed more than thirteen million times, he has appeared in several films, and he has written for Aeon, The Guardian, Granta, New Scientist, and Scientific American, and he is lead scientist on the Dreamachine project. His new book Being You: A New Science of Consciousness was an instant Sunday Times Bestseller and a 2021 Book of the Year for The Economist, The New Statesman, Bloomberg Business, The Guardian, The Financial Times and elsewhere. Check out Dreamachine, take part in The Perception Census, visit Anil's website, or follow him on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, or LinkedIn.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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The capabilities approach to welfare (with Martha Nussbaum)
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What is the capabilities approach to welfare? To what is this approach reacting? How should capabilities be balanced or traded off against each other? How do capabilities differ from needs? Are zoos unethical? Can plants be subject to injustice? What are our ethical obligations towards factory farms? How do our ethical obligations to domesticated animals and livestock differ from our ethical obligations to wild animals, if at all? Why is vulnerability important? Is inequality intrinsically bad, or is it only bad because of its effects?
Martha C. Nussbaum is the Ernst Freund Distinguished Service Professor of Law and Ethics, appointed in the Philosophy Department and the Law School of the University of Chicago. She gave the 2016 Jefferson Lecture for the National Endowment for the Humanities and won the 2016 Kyoto Prize in Arts and Philosophy, the 2018 Berggruen Prize in Philosophy and Culture, and the 2020 Holberg Prize. These three prizes are regarded as the most prestigious awards available in fields not eligible for a Nobel. She has written more than twenty-two books, including Upheavals of Thought: The Intelligence of Emotions; Anger and Forgiveness: Resentment, Generosity, Justice; Not for Profit: Why Democracy Needs the Humanities; The Monarchy of Fear, and most recently Justice for Animals: Our Collective Responsibility. Learn more about her via her University of Chicago bio.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Should you become a charity entrepreneur? (with Joey Savoie)
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What is charity entrepreneurship? What sorts of incentives pull charities away from their stated goals? Why is Effective Altruism even a thing when it's already the case that most charities probably try to be as effective as they can be and probably use evidence of some kind to move towards that end? How diverse are the value systems in the EA movement? To what extent should charity funders diversify? Under what conditions does expected value theory break down? Is it possible to be too altruistic? Have too many EA orgs moved away from more traditional, near-term causes to pursue long-term causes? How frequently should charities switch projects? What is foundation entrepreneurship? What's the best advice to give to a non-EA person who wants to do some amount of good in the world?
Joey Savoie wants to make the biggest positive difference in the world that he can. His mission is to cause more effective charities to exist in the world by connecting talented individuals with high-impact intervention opportunities. To achieve this, he co-founded Charity Entrepreneurship, an organization that launches effective charities through an extensive research process and incubation program. Prior to Charity Entrepreneurship, he co-founded Charity Science, a meta-organization that increased the amount of counterfactual funding going to high-impact charities. Subsequently, he co-founded Charity Science Health, a nonprofit that increases vaccination rates in India using mobile phones and behavioral nudges. He has given lectures on various aspects of charity entrepreneurship and Effective Altruism in Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, Yale, EAG London, EAG San Francisco, Berlin, Basel, Vancouver, Stockholm, and Oslo. Learn more about Charity Entrepreneurship here, and learn more about Joey here.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Has political polarization been misunderstood? (with Nick Gillespie)
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Are the US's culture wars a sign of a society falling apart? Is social media a cause or a symptom (or both or neither) of the animosity between political tribes in the US? We've all heard of postmodernism, but what the heck is it? Is libertarianism a right-leaning ideology? Are the current levels of intergenerational animosity unusually high? How will the FTX collapse likely impact cryptocurrencies over the next few decades?
Nick Gillespie is an editor at large at Reason, the libertarian magazine of "free minds and free markets", and host of The Reason Interview with Nick Gillespie. Gillespie served as the editor in chief for Reason.com and Reason TV from 2008 through 2017 and was Reason magazine's editor in chief from 2000 to 2008. Under his direction, Reason won the 2005 Western Publications Association "Maggie" Award for Best Political Magazine. His work has appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, The New York Post, Slate, Salon, Time.com, Marketplace, and numerous other publications; and he is a frequent commentator on radio and television networks such as National Public Radio, CNBC, CNN, C-SPAN, Fox Business, Fox News Channel, MSNBC, and PBS. He holds a Ph.D. in English literature from the State University of New York at Buffalo. He also holds an M.A. in English with a concentration in creative writing from Temple University and a B.A. in English and Psychology from Rutgers University. Follow him on Twitter at @nickgillespie.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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How can you tell if you're cut out for entrepreneurship? (with Matt Clifford)
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What are "variance-amplifying" and "variance-dampening" institutions? Has the world been getting weirder recently? Should entrepreneurs aim for variance amplification or variance dampening? What percentage of people should be entrepreneurs? What traits and skills are necessary for successful entrepreneurship? How has ambition changed over the course of history? How can entrepreneurs know if they're really changing the world, or just doing something slightly before someone else did it, or just doing something that would have happened anyway? How can entrepreneurs avoid getting mired in "tar pit" ideas?
Matt Clifford MBE is cofounder and CEO of Entrepreneur First, the leading technology company builder that invests in top technical individuals to help them build world-class deep technology startups from scratch in six locations across Europe, Asia, and Canada. Since 2011, Entrepreneur First has created over 500 startups worth over $10bn including Magic Pony Technology, Tractable, and CloudNC. Matt is also Chairman of the UK's new Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), which aims to enable exceptional scientists and researchers to identify and fund transformational research that leads to new technologies, discoveries, products, and services. Matt sits on the board of Code First Girls, which he co-founded in 2013 to teach young women how to code, and is a member of the Innovate UK Council. Matt started his career at McKinsey & Co. and holds degrees from Cambridge and MIT, where he was a Kennedy Scholar. He was awarded an MBE for services to business in the 2016 Queen's Birthday Honours. Follow him on Twitter, interact with him on LinkedIn, or learn more about his work at Entrepreneur First.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Letting ChatGPT make your decisions for you (with Dax Flame)
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What would happen if you chose to let ChatGPT control your life for a year? If products like ChatGPT help us (e.g.) to write something important, then should we give it credit as a co-author or merely act as though it's a high-powered Grammarly? How would you feel if you received a hand-written card from a romantic partner but later found out that everything they'd written had been authored by ChatGPT? How can we learn to get along with — and perhaps even form friendships with — people with whom we strongly disagree?
Dax Flame was one of the first YouTube stars. He acted in the movies 21 Jump Street and Project X, and has written three memoirs. After running out of money, he spent a few years working minimum wage jobs, but now at 31 he is attempting to become a full-time YouTuber again. Check out his YouTube channel, @Daxflame.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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What good is college now that we can learn everything for free on the internet? (with Nick Dirks)
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Why are colleges and universities valuable to societies? Why does formal post-secondary education seem unnecessary for some fields like programming, where a person can learn everything they need from internet resources? Do universities have a monopoly on credentials? If so, is that monopoly warranted and desirable, or does it stifle innovation and reduce competition? Why have tuition costs been skyrocketing over the past few decades? How does the quantity and quality of university research compare to military and private research? Are universities too political? Should the humanities still be taught in universities? How must colleges and universities evolve to keep pace with technological and economic change?
Nicholas Dirks, President and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences, is an internationally renowned historian and anthropologist. He leads the Academy in promoting science-based solutions to world challenges, including pandemics and global warming. His work at the Academy facilitates the dissemination of scientific information, supports broad access to science education, studies counter bias in academia and the laboratory, and supports scientists across all stages of their careers. He was awarded his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago and has taught at UC Berkeley, the California Institute of Technology, the University of Michigan, and Columbia University. Find him on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Not seeing your face as a first step to enlightenment? (with Richard Lang)
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What is The Headless Way? What are we like before we accept the names, roles, and narratives given to us by other people? What does it mean for consciousness to be "boundless" or "infinite"? What are the benefits of adopting a "headless" perspective? How can we visit (and feel relatively confident that we've visited) this perspective? Where is this perspective situated relative to the larger constellation of meditation and mindfulness concepts from other traditions?
Richard Lang has been teaching The Headless Way for over fifty years having met Douglas Harding, the author of On Having No Head, in 1970. Richard also worked for many years as a psychotherapist as well as teaching tai chi and dance. The Headless Way is a method of waking up to your True Self which is spacious, still, and free. Being conscious of your True Self enables you as an individual to be more creative, loving and effective in the world. Contact Richard at headexchange@gn.apc.org or learn more at his website, headless.org.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
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Is giving people a sense of agency better than giving them cash? (with Richard Sedlmayr)
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Can giving people a sense of agency and dignity be better than giving them access to food, shelter, clothing, or cash? And what exactly can be done in practice to expand human agency? How does the value of agency-oriented interventions compare to the value of more tangible interventions? How robust are the findings about all of the above in light of the replication crisis? In general, how much confidence should we place (with or without the replication crisis) in the findings of social science research? How tight should the feedback loop be for organizations that do both research for and implementation of charitable interventions?
Richard Sedlmayr works with a private foundation called the Wellspring Philanthropic Fund, where he funds research and innovation to promote pro-poor economic development. He is also involved in the setup of The Agency Fund, a philanthropic partnership investing in ideas and organizations that support people in the navigation of difficult lives. Richard's background is in behavioral, development, and financial economics, and he has a PhD in Public Policy from Oxford. Richard has lived in a dozen countries and is currently based in the Bay Area. You can get in touch with him on LinkedIn.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Are you working on the most important problem in your field? Why not? (with Rohit Krishnan)
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How are curiosity and innovation connected? What's the most important problem in your field? And are you working on it? Why or why not? Is curiosity the best heuristic — either for an individual or for society at large — for finding valuable problems to work on? What mental models do people tend to use by default? How much is an academic degree worth these days? What are some alternatives to degrees that could count as valid credentials, i.e., as unfakeable (or very-hard-to-fake) signals of someone's level of skill in an area? Can people learn to fake any kind of signal, or are there some that are inherently unfakeable?
Rohit Krishnan is an essayist at Strange Loop Canon, where he writes about business, tech, and economics. He's been an entrepreneur and an investor and is very excited to see when crazy ideas meet the real world. Follow him on Twitter at @krishnanrohit.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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How huge a deal is climate change, really? (with Diana Ürge-Vorsatz and Misha Glouberman)
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How huge a deal is climate change, really? What's the right metric for determining how bad climate change effects will be? How do the forecasts made by climate experts differ from those made by superforecasters? Which pieces of the climate change puzzle are we absolutely sure about right now, and which pieces are still speculative or under investigation? Where can we find trustworthy information about climate change? How can we navigate conversations about these topics without becoming defensive?
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz is a professor at the Central European University in Vienna, and also Vice Chair of Working Group III (Mitigation) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the UN's science panel on climate change. She has a PhD from the University of California (Los Angeles and Berkeley) in Environmental Sciences and Engineering. Diana has over 100 peer-reviewed publications and has been serving on a wide range of academic and corporate advisory and governing bodies, including the UK Energy Research Center (UKERC), European Climate Foundation, Austrian Climate and Energy Fund (Klien), McKinsey, RWE, European Research Council, and IIASA. She regularly provides expert analysis related to environmental issues to the media, including BBC World News, BBC4, BBC World Service, Euronews, RTL, TRT, NTV, ITV. Diana is a proud mother of 7 children and a national champion in Orienteering. She lives with her family in Budapest, Hungary. Follow her on Twitter at @dianaurge or on Instagram at @dr_diana_urgevorsatz.
Misha Glouberman is a consultant who helps companies get unstuck on all sorts of issues, ranging from retention problems, to underperforming teams, to creating collaborative cultures across silos and in hybrid workplaces. He does this by helping people talk to each other in ways that are effective, authentic, and human. He hosts the Trampoline Hall Lectures in Toronto and is the co-author, with Sheila Heti, of The Chairs Are Where The People Go. He does lots of online events, so join his email list to learn more about them. You can also find him on Twitter, LinkedIn, and his website, mishaglouberman.com. (NOTE: Misha was on our podcast back in episode 109!)
Further reading
- "Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change"
- "Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years"
- "Climate and weather at 3 degrees more: An Earth as we do not (want to) know it"
- "Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios"
- "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points"
- Notes from Misha's climate talk at BitNorth
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Becoming a policy entrepreneur (with Tom Kalil)
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What is a "policy entrepreneur"? Can people become policy entrepreneurs if they're not already a political office holder? Aside from literally speaking to the POTUS, what are some ways that policy entrepreneurs can make progress on their goals? Why is it so hard for some people to articulate actionable plans that would accomplish their goals? What is market shaping? Why do some government departments have no budget for R&D?
Tom Kalil is Chief Innovation Officer at Schmidt Futures. In this role, Tom leads initiatives to harness technology for societal challenges, improve science policy, and identify and pursue 21st century moonshots. Prior to Schmidt Futures, Tom served in the White House for two Presidents (Obama and Clinton), helping to design and launch national science and technology initiatives in areas such as nanotechnology, the BRAIN initiative, data science, materials by design, robotics, commercial space, high-speed networks, access to capital for startups, high-skill immigration, STEM education, learning technology, startup ecosystems, and the federal use of incentive prizes. Follow him on Twitter at @tkalil2050.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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How to build your second brain (with Tiago Forte)
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What is a "commonplace book"? What traits are desirable in "second brain" tools? What are some common mistakes people make in note-taking? What should we take notes about? What are some useful methods of organizing, distilling, remembering, and taking action on notes? How much information should we hold in our brains and how much should be offloaded to a second brain? What are creative convergence and divergence?
Tiago Forte is the founder of Forte Labs and one of the world's foremost experts on productivity. He has taught more than 20,000 people worldwide through his programs and writes and speaks on how technology can help knowledge workers revolutionize their personal effectiveness. Tiago's online course, Building a Second Brain, has produced more than 5,000 graduates from over 70 countries. In a previous life, he worked in microfinance in Latin America, served in the Peace Corps in Ukraine, and consulted for large companies on product development in San Francisco. He lives in Long Beach, California, with his wife Lauren, son Caio, and dog Ximena. Lear more about him at buildingasecondbrain.com or follow him on Twitter at @fortelabs.
By the way: We've summarized this episode's key takeaways in a Thought Saver card deck to help you remember these ideas forever! You can explore the deck here: https://app.thoughtsaver.com/share/MT6EwJ82pO
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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Does every language have a word for depression? (with Sean Mayberry)
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Why is depression on the rise globally? We've all heard that social media is a big cause of depression, but what other factors might we have overlooked? Why are anxiety and depression so closely linked? What is group interpersonal therapy? How does it differ from cognitive behavioral therapy and other treatment modalities? Which languages lack an equivalent to the word "depression"?
Sean Mayberry is a former diplomat and social marketer who believes that treating depression in women in Africa is the most simple and cost-effective way to address systemic poverty. Sean is the founder of StrongMinds, a social enterprise with the mission of improving women's mental health in Africa; and has served as a SOCAP Fellow, a Rainer Arnhold Fellow, a Cordes Foundation Fellow, and a GLG Fellow. In addition to that, in 2020, he won the Humanitarian Award from the Group Foundation for Advancing Mental Health. Prior to founding StrongMinds, Sean was the CEO of FXB International, an anti-poverty team active in Africa, and the COO for VisionSpring, which provides eyeglasses to low-income populations. Sean also worked for Population Services International as their Country Director in India and the Congo. For interest in partnering with StrongMinds or learning more, email Sean at sean@strongminds.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
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- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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What things in life *shouldn't* we optimize? (with Christie Aschwanden)
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Why should we not optimize some things in life? Should some things (e.g., interpersonal relationships) be "off-limits" for optimization? How much time spent being unproductive is good for us? What can we learn by paying attention to our moods? Does science make progress and produce knowledge too slowly? Why is research methodology applied so inconsistently, especially in the social sciences?
Christie Aschwanden is author of Good to Go: What the Athlete in All of Us Can Learn From the Strange Science of Recovery, and co-host of Emerging Form, a podcast about the creative process. She's the former lead science writer at FiveThirtyEight and was previously a health columnist for The Washington Post. Her work has appeared in dozens of publications, including Wired, Scientific American, Slate, Smithsonian, Popular Science, New Scientist, Discover, Science, and NPR.org. She is a frequent contributor to The New York Times. She was a National Magazine Award finalist in 2011 and has received journalism fellowships from the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, the Carter Center, the Santa Fe Institute, and the Greater Good Science Center. Learn more about her at christieaschwanden.com or follow her on Instagram at @cragcrest or on Mastodon at @cragscrest.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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How can we make science more trustworthy? (with Stuart Ritchie)
Read the full transcript here.
How can we make science more trustworthy? When scientists break into factions around a particular topic, whom should we trust, and why? Why did trust in science as an institution plummet drastically during COVID? What is the state of the evidence for the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, or vitamin D against COVID? Why is controlling for variables so difficult? What evidence is there for how well IQ represents intelligence and predicts useful things about people's lives? There's the famous quip that "IQ tests only measure how well people do on IQ tests", but we also all seem to know that some people are smarter than others; so can't that disparity be captured in a single number, or even in a small set of numbers?
Stuart Ritchie is a Lecturer at the Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, King's College London. He received his PhD in psychology from The University of Edinburgh in 2014. Since then, he's been researching human cognitive abilities like how our mental abilities age and how education can improve intelligence. His other interests are in the subject of Science Fictions: the problems with the scientific system and how we might fix them to improve the quality of research. Learn more about him at sciencefictions.org or follow him on Twitter at @StuartJRitchie.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Living a life of service to others (with Tasshin Fogleman)
Read the full transcript here.
What is a "quasi-monk"? How hard is it to govern one's own speech and thoughts? What is "maximum deep benefit"? And how does it differ from effective altruism? How can we best direct our energy, time, and resources to do good in the world? Should more people become monks and/or adopt a lifestyle of service to others?
Tasshin Fogleman is an extremely online wandering quasi-monk on indefinite pilgrimage for the benefit of all beings. He lives a simple life, dedicating his life to being of service, supported by the generosity of others. He has three main endeavors: spreading love, following his curiosity, and empowering others. Follow him on Twitter at @tasshinfogleman or learn more about him at his website, tasshin.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Mapping metaethics (with Lance Bush)
Read the full transcript here.
What is metaethics? Is moral objectivism the same thing as moral realism? When philosophers examine sentences like "Murder is wrong", are they generally more interested in (1) the role that the language is playing in a social interaction (e.g., that it's an imperative or that it expresses an emotion) or (2) the concepts themselves and their relations? Could it be the case that all moral statements are false? What do we know about how people actually use moral language in everyday life? Or do people even have any idea what they're doing when they use moral language? We're familiar with the idea that cultures vary in how they emphasize and value moral concepts; but are there cultures that have radically different moral concepts than our own (i.e., cultures that might not even have the concepts of modesty or honor in the first place, or that might have moral concepts that have never occurred to us)? Are there cultures that have have no moral concepts at all? What does it really mean to say that someone "should" do something? What is the use of intuition in philosophy? Where is philosophy going wrong today?
Lance S. Bush is a PhD student in social psychology at Cornell University. Most of his research focuses on moral psychology, metaethics, and methodological issues in experimental philosophy. He is also interested in psychological factors relevant to effective altruism and existential risk, particularly cognitive biases, reputational concerns, and other psychological phenomena that inhibit altruism and concern for the distant future. Email him at lancesbush@gmail.com or learn more about him at LanceSBush.com.
Further reading
- Meta-Ethical Positions diagram and explanation blog post by Tommy Crow
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Do organizations have to get slower as they grow? (with Alex Komoroske)
Read the full transcript here.
Why do organizations get slower as they grow? What can organizations learn from slime molds? What are the advantages of top-down organization versus bottom-up organization, and vice versa? How can organizations encourage serendipity? What use are doorbells in jungles? Why is it so hard for organizations to set a "north star" that is at once plausible, coherent, and good?
Alex Komoroske has over a decade of experience in the tech industry as a product manager focusing on platform- and ecosystem-shaped problems. While at Google, he worked on Chrome's Web Platform PM team, Augmented Reality in Google Maps, and Ambient Computing. He's fascinated by how to navigate the emergent complexity within organizations to achieve great results. You can find some of his public writing at komoroske.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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How can we un-break politics? (with Magnus Vinding)
Read the full transcript here.
How can we as individuals and as societies un-break politics? What is the two-step ideal of reasoned politics? How might this ideal apply to specific political issues, like free speech? Is it possible to reach agreement or even compromise on political issues that are rooted in intrinsic values? How can we reduce our own political biases? Are there some political issues which must always or by definition be zero-sum, or can all issues conceivably become positive-sum?
Magnus Vinding is the author of Speciesism: Why It Is Wrong and the Implications of Rejecting It, Reflections on Intelligence, You Are Them, Suffering-Focused Ethics: Defense and Implications, and Reasoned Politics. He has a degree in mathematics from the University of Copenhagen, and in 2020, he co-founded the Center for Reducing Suffering, whose mission is to reduce severe suffering in a way that takes all sentient beings into account.
Further reading
- "Compassionate Free Speech" (2020), an essay by Magnus Vinding on free speech, compassion, and social media
- Reasoned Politics (2022), a book by Magnus Vinding available for free download
- Hate: Why We Should Resist It with Free Speech, Not Censorship, by Nadine Strossen
- "How a cultural revolt against "political correctness" helped launch Trump into the presidency", by Lucien Gideon Conway III
- "Understanding Libertarian Morality: The Psychological Dispositions of Self-Identified Libertarians", by Ravi Iyer, Spassena Koleva, Jesse Graham, Peter Ditto, and Jonathan Haidt
- Reporters Without Borders index
- A Twitter thread by Michael Petersen that presents some evidence suggesting that bans are counterproductive to fighting disinformation
- "The Automaticity of Affect for Political Leaders, Groups, and Issues: An Experimental Test of the Hot Cognition Hypothesis", by Milton Lodge and Charles S. Taber
- "Beyond Western, Educated, Industrial, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) Psychology: Measuring and Mapping Scales of Cultural and Psychological Distance", by Michael Muthukrishna, Adrian V. Bell, Joseph Henrich, Camerom M. Curtin, Alexander Gedranovich, Jason McInerney, and Brandon Thue
- "Disagreement or Badmouthing? The Role of Expressive Discourse in Politics", by Michael Hannon
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Why capitalism doesn't live up to its promises (with Martin Schmalz)
Read the full transcript here.
Why doesn't capitalism seem to be living up to its promises of free and fair competition, low prices, and high quality goods and services (at least in Western nations)? What did Adam Smith fail to foresee about the ways economic systems would change on the way to 2022? What is "common ownership", and what effects does it have on economies? What interventions should be implemented to keep an economy healthy? Is it easier to put pressure on business leaders or politicians? In terms of shifting incentives for the sake of mitigating climate change, how effective is it to divest from "brown" businesses and invest instead in "green" ones? What is the AI revolution really about? Is it conceivable, even in theory, that AIs could make predictions in "uncharted territory" where the present is completely unlike the past? (But for that matter, how well can humans make predictions in such cases?) Is the hubbub around AI just a distraction from other more important issues? How can we keep AIs from reinforcing existing biases?
Martin Schmalz is Professor of Finance and Economics at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. He holds a graduate degree (Dipl.-Ing.) in mechanical engineering from the Universität Stuttgart (Germany) and a M.A. and PhD in Economics from Princeton University (USA). Prof. Schmalz is the Academic Director of Oxford's Blockchain Strategy Programme, and co-director of the Open Banking & AI in Finance Programme. He co-authored The Business of Big Data: How to Create Lasting Value in the Age of AI, and was featured as one of the "40 under 40" best business school professors worldwide at the age of 33. Read his writings on his blog, learn more about him on his website, and follow him on Twitter at @martincschmalz (governance & antitrust) and @oxfordfrom (everything else).
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Anti-interoperability, vendor lock-in, and high switching costs (with Cory Doctorow)
Read the full transcript here.
What is interoperability? What counts as "unauthorized" access to computers or parts of computers? If the rendered design of a web page is copyrighted, then does blocking ads on that page count as copyright infringement by creating a derivative product? Does Facebook really want what's best for its users? Is Google evil? Could blockchain-based solutions provide much-needed privacy or interoperability? Why doesn't the U.S. government (for example) fight harder to prevent vendor lock-in when buying goods and services? Which tech companies, if any, should be broken up?
Cory Doctorow (craphound.com) is a science fiction author, activist, and journalist. He is the author of many books, most recently Radicalized and Walkaway, science fiction for adults; Chokepoint Capitalism, nonfiction about monopoly and creative labor markets; In Real Life, a graphic novel; and the picture book Poesy the Monster Slayer. His latest novel is Attack Surface, a standalone adult sequel to Little Brother. In 2020, he was inducted into the Canadian Science Fiction and Fantasy Hall of Fame.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Separating the sinner from the sin (with Khomotso Moshikaro)
Read the full transcript here.
What is a criminal label? What implications should criminal labels have (or not) for a person's future? To what extent are the long-term social effects considered as part of the sentence for a crime (e.g., not only considering sending a person to prison for 5 years but also considering how likely they are to be shunned socially or to be prevented from working certain kinds of jobs after their release)? How does the concept of dignity differ from the concept of rights? Are human rights infinitely valuable? Can a society that takes dignity seriously also allow for contempt? Under what conditions are rights forfeited by a person who commits a crime? And which rights are forfeited, and why? (For example, should the punishments for theft include a loss of the right to vote? Does the amount or kind of theft matter? Does it matter who the victims are, or how many victims there are?) For what kinds of crimes can we draw conclusions about a person's character? How much should we focus on punishment versus rehabilitation? How do honor, mercy, redemption, dignity, and contempt all relate to one another? How do we know when someone is truly reformed?
Khomotso is a South African and British trained lawyer who completed graduate work at Oxford and is now pursuing his PhD at Cambridge. His research focuses on the morality of criminal punishment, specifically the nature, ontology, and limits of criminal labelling. He currently teaches at the University of Cape Town and reads too much Roman politics and history in the late Republic and Early Imperial period in his spare time.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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The FTX catastrophe (with Byrne Hobart, Vipul Naik, Maomao Hu, Marcus Abramovich, and Ozzie Gooen)
What the heck happened with FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried? Were there early warning signs that most people failed to notice? What could've been done differently, and by whom? What effects will this have on the EA movement going forward?
Timestamps:
- 00:01:37 — Intro & timeline
- 00:51:48 — Byrne Hobart
- 01:39:52 — Vipul Naik
- 02:18:35 — Maomao Hu
- 02:41:19 — Marcus Abramovitch
- 02:49:38 — Ozzie Gooen
- 03:21:40 — Wrap-up & outro
Byrne Hobart writes The Diff, a newsletter covering inflections in finance and tech, which has 47,000+ readers. Previously he worked at a hedge fund covering Internet and media companies. Follow Byrne on Twitter at @ByrneHobart or subscribe to The Diff at thediff.co.
Vipul Naik holds a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago and is currently the head of data science at Equator Therapeutics, a drug discovery startup. He previously worked at a tech startup called LiftIgniter and then at The Arena Group, a media / tech company that acquired LiftIgniter. Learn more about him at his website, vipulnaik.com.
Maomao Hu is a blockchain, fintech, and AI entrepreneur and thought leader. He has been involved in organizations ranging from leading investment banks to new startups, to solve both microstructure problems like market surveillance and macrostructure problems like capital allocation. Currently, he leads development and quantitative research at asset manager Zerocap. Learn more about him at his website, thefirenexttime.com.
Marcus Abramovich is a managing partner at Enlightenment Ventures, an EA-aligned cryptocurrency hedge fund. Marcus also leads a Facebook group and Discord community of effective altruists focused on accumulating capital to donate to EA causes, and advises several cryptocurrency projects. Marcus discovered effective altruism as a PhD candidate at the University of Waterloo and professional poker player. Email him at marcus.s.abramovitch@gmail.com.
Ozzie Gooen is the president of The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute. He has a background in programming and research. He previously founded Guesstimate and worked at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Follow him on Twitter at @ozziegooen or learn more about his current work at quantifieduncertainty.org.
Further Reading:
- "Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving" by Rob Wiblin @ the EA forum on why he disagrees with the SBF's risk-taking approach [link]
References:
- 0xhonky. (November 13, 2022, 03:12 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/0xhonky/status/1591630071915483136. Twitter. [link]
- alamedatrabucco. (April 22, 2021, 10:37 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/alamedatrabucco/status/1385180941186789384. Twitter. [link]
- Allison, I.. (November 2, 2022). Divisions in Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire Blur on His Trading Titan Alameda's Balance Sheet. Coindesk. [link]
- Austin. (November 14, 2022). In Defense of SBF. Effective Altruism Forum. [link]
- autismcapital. (November 12, 2022, 07:33 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/autismcapital/status/1591333446995283969. Twitter. [link]
- Berwick, A.. (November 13, 2022). Exclusive: At least $1 billion of client funds missing at failed crypto firm FTX. Reuters. [link]
- carolinecapital. (April 5, 2021, 11:41 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/carolinecapital/status/1379036346300305408. Twitter. [link]
- corybates1895. (November 10, 2022, 10:37 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/corybates1895/status/1590836167867760641. Twitter. [link]
- cz_binance. (November 6, 2022, 03:47 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1589283421704290306. Twitter. [link]
- cz_binance. (November 8, 2022). https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1590013613586411520. Twitter. [link]
- Faux, Z.. (April 3, 2022). A 30-Year-Old Crypto Billionaire Wants to Give His Fortune Away. Bloomberg. [link]
- Ellison, C.. (September 21, 2021). https://worldoptimization.tumblr.com/post/642664297644916736/slatestarscratchpad-all-right-more-really-stupid [deleted]. World Optimization. [link]
- ftxfuturefund. (February 8, 2022, 05:32 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/ftxfuturefund/status/1498350483206860801. Twitter. [link]
- Gach, E.. (November 14, 2022). Crypto's Biggest Crash Saw Guy Playing League Of Legends While Luring Investors [Update]. Kotaku. [link]
- Hussein, F.. (November 16, 2022). House panel to hold hearing on cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapse. PBS News Hour. [link]
- Jenkinson, G.. (November 17, 2022). SBF received $1B in personal loans from Alameda: FTX bankruptcy filing. Cointelegraph. [link]
- Kulish, N.. (November 13, 2022). FTX's Collapse Casts a Pall on a Philanthropy Movement. The New York Times. [link]
- Levine, M.. (November 14, 2022). FTX's Balance Sheet Was Bad. Bloomberg. [link]
- Ligon,C., Reynolds, S., Kessler, S., De, N., & Decker, R.. (November 11, 2022). 'FTX Has Been Hacked': Crypto Disaster Worsens as Exchange Sees Mysterious Outflows Exceeding $600M. Coindesk. [link]
- Morrow, A.. (November 18, 2022). ‘Complete failure:' Filing reveals staggering mismanagement inside FTX . CNN. [link]
- Nick_Beckstead, leopold, ab, & ketanrama. (November 10, 2022). The FTX Future Fund team has resigned. Effective Altruism Forum. [link]
- Partz, H.. (November 9, 2022). FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried removes “assets are fine” flood from Twitter. Cointelegraph. [link]
- Piper, K.. (November 16, 2022). Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself. Vox. [link]
- Regan, M.P. & Hajric, V.. (November 12, 2022). SBF vs CZ: How 2 crypto billionaires' social media “bloodsport” went from keyboard warrior shenanigans to a $32 billion blowup. Fortune. [link]
- Rosenberg, E., Khartit, K., & McClay, R.. (August 26, 2022). What Is Yield Farming in Cryptocurrency?. The Balance. [link]
- sbf_ftx. (December 2, 2020, 09:25 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1334247283081138178. Twitter. [link]
- sbf_ftx. (December 11, 2020, 04:19 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1337250686870831107. Twitter. [link]
- sbf_ftx. (November 8, 2022, 04:03 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1590012124864348160. Twitter. [link]
- sbf_ftx. (November 10, 2022, 02:13 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1590709195892195329. Twitter. [link]
- sbf_ftx. (November 11, 2022, 03:23 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1591089317300293636. Twitter. [link]
- Sigalos, M. & Rooney, K.. (November 9, 2022). Binance backs out of FTX rescue, leaving the crypto exchange on the brink of collapse. CNBC. [link]
- tara_macaulay. (November 16, 2022, 08:57 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/tara_macaulay/status/1592985303262072834. Twitter. [link]
- taylorpearsonme. (November 10, 2022, 10:00 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/taylorpearsonme/status/1590826638429650944. Twitter. [link]
- Tsipursky, G.. (November 16, 2022). SBF's dangerous decision-making philosophy that brought down FTX. Fortune. [link]
- whalechart. (November 15, 2022, 06:46 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/whalechart/status/1592408565402464259. Twitter. [link]
- Wiblin, R. & Harris, K.. (April 14, 2022). Sam Bankman-Fried on taking a high-risk approach to crypto and doing good. 80,000 Hours. [link]
- Yaffe-Bellany, D.. (November 14, 2022). How Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire Collapsed. The New York Times. [link]
- yashkaf. (November 12, 2022, 07:18 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/yashkaf/status/1591606925149540353. Twitter. [link]
- FTX (company). Wikipedia. [link]
- Sam Bankman-Fried. Wikipedia. [link]
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
Music
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How to find out what people in rural communities really need (with Robert Chambers)
Read the full transcript here.
What is the field of development? What are the differences between rapid and participatory rural appraisal? Under what conditions should qualitative surveys be preferred over quantitative and vice versa? What is participatory mapping? How has the field of development changed over the last few decades? Why do people get taller when sanitation improves?
Robert Chambers is a British academic and development practitioner. He spent his academic career at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex. In 2013, he became an honorary fellow of the International Institute of Social Studies. He has been one of the leading advocates for putting the poor, destitute, and marginalized at the center of the processes of development policy since the 1980s. Learn more about him here.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
Music
Affiliates
Building healthy relationships (with Jayson Gaddis)
Read the full transcript here.
What are the main categories of interpersonal relationship problems? What's really going on when most people say they have a "communication" problem? What are the criteria for being a good listener? What's the "right" amount of conflict to have in a healthy relationship? How can we best express our wants and needs? What sorts of requests are reasonable (or not) to make of our relationship partners? People can get along just fine when they differ on little things, like the best flavor of ice cream; but how can people maintain relationships when they have deep differences in their core values?
Jayson Gaddis is an author, relationship expert, and coach who teaches people the one class they didn't get in school: "How To Do Relationships." Jayson leads one of the most in-depth and comprehensive relationship educational programs and trains relationship coaches all over the world. Jayson is the host of The Relationship School Podcast, the founder of The Relationship School, and the author of Getting to Zero: How to Work Through Conflict in Your High-Stakes Relationships. Learn more about Jayson and his work via these links:
Jayson:
The Relationship School:
Further reading
- "Interested in improving your relationships? Try Nonviolent Communication" by ClearerThinking.org
- Getting to Zero by Jayson Gaddis
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
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Bringing rationality into politics (with Elizabeth Edwards-Appell)
Read the full transcript here.
How do campaign and election dynamics affect the sorts of people that politicians court and the kinds of platforms they build? How well can we really know non-voters' preferences? What would your life be like if your most treasured belief turned out to be false? What are all the ramifications of voting against your own party? To what extent is "political capital" a real, legit thing? Do politicians actually manage to get anything useful done despite the constant flip-flopping of power? How can we expect non-experts to write robust regulations in fields that are extremely complicated? What percent of politicians exhibit higher-than-average levels of the Dark Triad traits? How does becoming a politician change one's personality? How accurate are Bradley Tusk's political personality types (the rare breed, the typical politician, the ideologue, the "I'm just happy to be here", and the corrupt politician)? How similar are state politics to federal politics?
Elizabeth Edwards-Appell is a former New Hampshire legislator who currently works as a political consultant. As a member of the effective altruism movement, her work focuses on policy change to reduce catastrophic risks. She lives near Manchester with her wife, their cat, and their brand new baby daughter.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
Music
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Sex workers — empowered, or victims? (with Melissa Broudo)
Read the full transcript here.
Content warning: Please be aware that rape and sexual abuse are discussed in this episode. If you are particularly sensitive to these issues, then please take care when listening.
How have identity politics and social media changed sex work? To what extent is sex work work? Under what conditions is a sex worker a victim of abuse? Why does rape seem so much worse than other kinds of physical abuse? Does an increase in access to sex workers necessarily cause an increase in infidelity? Are there psychological risks associated with sex work even for people that enjoy the work and are not otherwise harmed or abused? (For example, compared to the average person, is it harder for sex workers to form romantic relationships with others?) Does sex work reinforce or even amplify unwanted objectification and commodification of bodies? What are the various legal models of sex work being used around the world right now?
Melissa Sontag Broudo, JD, MPH, has been part of the sex-worker-rights and harm-reduction movements since the late 1990s, furthering policy, advocacy, and capacity-building efforts that support the rights of sex workers and survivors of human trafficking. She has been able to push rights-based policies and legislative initiatives that support sex workers and survivors of human trafficking, including: expanded criminal record relief for survivors of trafficking, immunity for victims of crimes who engage in sexual labor, and the formation of study commissions to review data related to better health outcomes for all people in the sex industry. She won the first-ever vacatur motion for a survivor of human trafficking and provided technical expertise on these critical motions throughout New York state and the country. Melissa received her Bachelor of Arts from Brown University in gender studies in 2001. She received her Master of Public Health from the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University and a Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center through their dual degree program in 2006. Read more about Melissa's work at DecriminalizeSex.Work, or follow her on Instagram at @decrimsexwork or on Twitter at @decrimsex.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
Music
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What, if anything, do AIs understand? (with ChatGPT Co-Creator Ilya Sutskever)
Read the full transcript here.
Can machines actually be intelligent? What sorts of tasks are narrower or broader than we usually believe? GPT-3 was trained to do a "single" task: predicting the next word in a body of text; so why does it seem to understand so many things? What's the connection between prediction and comprehension? What breakthroughs happened in the last few years that made GPT-3 possible? Will academia be able to stay on the cutting edge of AI research? And if not, then what will its new role be? How can an AI memorize actual training data but also generalize well? Are there any conceptual reasons why we couldn't make AIs increasingly powerful by just scaling up data and computing power indefinitely? What are the broad categories of dangers posed by AIs?
Ilya Sutskever is Co-founder and Chief Scientist of OpenAI, which aims to build artificial general intelligence that benefits all of humanity. He leads research at OpenAI and is one of the architects behind the GPT models. Prior to OpenAI, Ilya was co-inventor of AlexNet and Sequence to Sequence Learning. He earned his Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Toronto. Follow him on Twitter at @ilyasut.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
- Miles Kestran — Marketing
Music
Affiliates
Forecasting the things that matter (with Peter Wildeford)
Read the full transcript here.
How can we change the way we think about expertise (or the trustworthiness of any information source) using forecasting? How do prediction markets work? How can we use prediction markets in our everyday lives? Are prediction markets more trustworthy than large or respectable news outlets? How long does it take to sharpen one's prediction skills? In (e.g.) presidential elections, we know that the winner will be one person from a very small list of people; but how can we reasonably make predictions in cases where the outcomes aren't obviously multiple-choice (e.g., predicting when artificial general intelligence will be created)? How can we move from the world we have now to a world in which people think more quantitatively and make much better predictions? What scoring rules should we use to keep track of our predictions and update accordingly?
Peter Wildeford is the co-CEO of Rethink Priorities, where he aims to scalably employ a large number of well-qualified researchers to work on the world's most important problems. Prior to running Rethink Priorities, he was a data scientist in industry for five years at DataRobot, Avant, Clearcover, and other companies. He is also recognized as a Top 50 Forecaster on Metaculus (international forecasting competition) and has a Triple Master Rank on Kaggle (international data science competition) with top 1% performance in five different competitions. Follow him on Twitter at @peterwildeford.
Further reading
- ClearerThinking.org's "Calibrate Your Judgment" practice program
- Metaculus (forecasting platform)
- Manifold Markets
- Polymarket
- "Calibration Scoring Rules for Practical Prediction Training", a paper by Spencer Greenberg
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Is the universe a computer? (with Joscha Bach)
Read the full transcript here.
What is intelligence? What exactly does an IQ test measure? What are the similarities and differences between the structure of GPT-3 and the structure of the human brain (so far as we understand it)? Is suffering — as the Buddhists might say — just a consequence of the stories we tell about ourselves and the world? What's left (if anything) of the human mind if we strip away the "animal" parts of it? We've used our understanding of the human brain to inform the construction of AI models, but have AI models yielded new insights about the human brain? Is the universe is a computer? Where does AI go from here?
Joscha Bach was born in Eastern Germany, and he studied computer science and philosophy at Humboldt University in Berlin and computer science at Waikato University in New Zealand. He did his PhD at the Institute for Cognitive Science in Osnabrück by building a cognitive architecture called MicroPsi, which explored the interaction of motivation, emotion, and cognition. Joscha researched and lectured about the Future of AI at the MIT Media Lab and Harvard, and worked as VP for Research at a startup in San Francisco before joining Intel Labs as a principal researcher. Email him at joscha.bach@gmail.com, follow him on Twitter at @plinz, or subscribe to his YouTube channel.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Inventions, stories, and ideas that don't matter (with Pablos Holman)
Read the full transcript here.
How does 3D-printed food work? How do hackers and inventors think? What are some ideas that don't matter? Why are humans so driven by stories? What are the current sentiments around nuclear energy? What is an "information DMZ"? Is "cryptocurrency regulation" a contradiction in terms? What are "deep" and "shallow" technologies? How could we handle intellectual property rights more fairly?
Pablos is a hacker and inventor that runs Deep Future, a venture capital firm backing mad scientists, rogue inventors, crazy hackers, and maverick entrepreneurs who are implementing science fiction, solving big problems, and helping our species become better ancestors. Pablos is a top public speaker on technology whose TED Talks have over 30 million views. With his Deep Future Podcast, Pablos is sharing his conversations with people who understand the biggest problems in the world and the technologies that could help us solve them. Follow him on Twitter at @pablos, email him at pablos@deepfuture.tech, or find out more about him at deepfuture.tech.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Humble-bragging, counter-signalling, and impression management (with Övül Sezer)
Read the full transcript here.
What should we do (or not do) to make a good first impression on others? Is "humble-bragging" better or worse than straightforward bragging? Or is completely hiding our successes an even better strategy than humble-bragging or straightforward bragging? When do our attempts to signal something about ourselves actually end up signalling something else that we don't intend? What are some long-term strategies for gaining others' respect?
Övül Sezer is a behavioral scientist, stand-up comedian, and Visiting Assistant Professor at Columbia University, Columbia Business School. She received her A.B. in Applied Mathematics and her Ph.D in Organizational Behavior from Harvard University. Follow her on Twitter at @ovulsezer or learn more about her at ovulsezer.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Ambition and expected value at extremes (with Habiba Islam)
Read the full transcript here.
Are ambition and altruism compatible? How ambitious should we be if we want to do as much good in the world as possible? How should we handle expected values when the probabilities become very small and/or the values of the outcomes become very large? What's a reasonable probability of success for most entrepreneurs to aim for? Are there non-consequentialist justifications for longtermism?
Habiba Islam is an advisor at 80,000 Hours where she talks to people one-on-one, helping them to pursue high impact careers. She previously served as the Senior Administrator for the Future of Humanity Institute and the Global Priorities Institute at Oxford. Before that she qualified as a barrister and worked in management consulting at PwC specialising in operations for public and third sector clients. Follow her on Twitter at @FreshMangoLassi or learn more about her work at 80,000 Hours at 80000hours.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Career science, open science, and inspired science (with Alexa Tullett)
Read the full transcript here.
How much should we actually trust science? Are registered reports more trustworthy than meta-analyses? How does "inspired" science differ from "open" science? Open science practices may make research more defensible, but do they make it more likely to find truth? Do thresholds (like p < 0.05) represent a kind of black-and-white thinking, since they often come to represent a binary like "yes, this effect is significant" or "no, this effect is not significant"? What is "importance laundering"? Is generalizability more important than replicability? Should retribution be part of our justice system? Are we asking too much of the US Supreme Court? What would an ideal college admissions process look like?
Alexa Tullett is a social psychologist who works at the University of Alabama. Her lab examines scientific, religious, and political beliefs, and the factors that facilitate or impede belief change. Some of her work takes a meta-scientific approach, using psychological methods to study the beliefs and practices of psychological scientists. Learn more about her at alexatullett.com, or send her an email at atullett@ua.edu.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Estimating the long-term impact of our actions today (with Will MacAskill)
Read the full transcript here.
What is longtermism? Is the long-term future of humanity (or life more generally) the most important thing, or just one among many important things? How should we estimate the chance that some particular thing will happen given that our brains are so computationally limited? What is "the optimizer's curse"? How top-down should EA be? How should an individual reason about expected values in cases where success would be immensely valuable but the likelihood of that particular individual succeeding is incredibly low? (For example, if I have a one in a million chance of stopping World War III, then should I devote my life to pursuing that plan?) If we want to know, say, whether protests are effective or not, we merely need to gather and analyze existing data; but how can we estimate whether interventions implemented in the present will be successful in the very far future?
William MacAskill is an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford. At the time of his appointment, he was the youngest associate professor of philosophy in the world. A Forbes 30 Under 30 social entrepreneur, he also cofounded the nonprofits Giving What We Can, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and Y Combinator–backed 80,000 Hours, which together have moved over $200 million to effective charities. He's the author of Doing Good Better, Moral Uncertainty, and What We Owe The Future.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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The differences between analytic and continental philosophy (with Alexander Prescott-Couch)
Read the full transcript here.
What is the genetic fallacy? How do the analytic and continental philosophical traditions differ? What is the role and value of intuition in analytic philosophy? Is continental philosophy too poetic for its own good?
Alexander Prescott-Couch is an Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Oxford. He is currently writing a book on genealogy that is under contract with Oxford University Press. His academic work has appeared in journals such as Noûs and Journal of Political Philosophy, and he contributes to a regular interview column in the ZeitMagazin. Email him at alexander.prescott-couch@philosophy.ox.ac.uk or follow him on Twitter at @prescottcouch.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Voting method reform in the US (with Aaron Hamlin)
Read the full transcript here.
Does the US have one of the worst implementations of democracy in the world? Why do people sometimes seem to vote against their own interests? Is it rational for them to do so? How robust are various voting systems to strategic voting? What sorts of changes would we notice in the US if we suddenly switched to other voting systems? How hard would it be to migrate from our current voting systems to something more robust and fair, and what would be required to make that happen? Are centrist candidates always boring?
Aaron Hamlin is the executive director and co-founder of The Center for Election Science. He's been featured as an electoral systems expert on MSNBC.com, NPR, Free Speech TV, Inside Philanthropy, 80K Hours, and Popular Mechanics; and he has given talks across the country on voting methods. He's written for Deadspin, USA Today Magazine, Independent Voter Network, and others. Additionally, Aaron is a licensed attorney with two additional graduate degrees in the social sciences. You can learn more about The Center for Election Science at [electionscience.org(https://electionscience.org/) and can contact Aaron at aaron@electionscience.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Critiquing Effective Altruism (with Michael Nielsen and Ajeya Cotra)
Read the full transcript here.
What is Effective Altruism? Which parts of the Effective Altruism movement are good and not so good? Who outside of the EA movement are doing lots of good in the world? What are the psychological effects of thinking constantly about the trade-offs of spending resources on ourselves versus on others? To what degree is the EA movement centralized intellectually, financially, etc.? Does the EA movement's tendency to quantify everything, to make everything legible to itself, cause it to miss important features of the world? To what extent do EA people rationalize spending resources on inefficient or selfish projects by reframing them in terms of EA values? Is a feeling of tension about how to allocate our resources actually a good thing?
Ajeya Cotra is a Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy, a grantmaking organization that aims to do as much good as possible with its resources (broadly following effective altruist methodology); she mainly does research relevant to Open Phil's work on reducing existential risks from AI. Ajeya discovered effective altruism in high school through the book The Life You Can Save, and quickly became a major fan of GiveWell. As a student at UC Berkeley, she co-founded and co-ran the Effective Altruists of Berkeley student group, and taught a student-led course on EA. Listen to her 80,000 Hours podcast episode or visit her LessWrong author page for more info.
Michael Nielsen was on the podcast back in episode 016. You can read more about him there!
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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How to form habits effectively (with Jim Davies)
Read the full transcript here.
How can we form good habits more effectively? What roles do reward and punishment play in the habit formation process? And what roles should they play? How should we structure our daily schedules around new habits to maximize the likelihood that they'll stick? If our goal is to do 100 push-ups a day, it's often easier to start with 10 and increase the difficulty over time; but at what level of difficulty should we start, and how quickly should we approach the target difficulty? How does willpower connect (or not) with habit formation? Why should we care about animal consciousness? When it comes to estimating how much good specific interventions will do, are bad estimates better than no estimates at all?
Dr. Jim Davies is a professor of cognitive science at Carleton University. He is the author of Imagination: The Science of Your Mind's Greatest Power; Riveted: The Science of Why Jokes Make us Laugh, Movies Make us Cry, and Religion Makes us Feel One with the Universe; and Being the Person Your Dog Thinks You Are: The Science of a Better You. He co-hosts (with Dr. Kim Hellemans) the award-winning podcast Minding the Brain. Learn more about him at jimdavies.org or follow him on Twitter or Facebook.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Are scientific journals just parasites? (with Chris Chambers)
Read the full transcript here.
How is outcome bias especially relevant to science publishing? What are some possible solutions for overcoming outcome bias? In what ways are the publishing and peer review processes flawed? Why do many (or maybe most) scientists perform peer reviews for free? What value do publishers add to the scientific process, especially given that the internet democratizes distribution? How do (and should) scientific journals differ from newspapers? What kinds of changes must academic systems implement in order to improve in parallel with the proposed improvements for journals? How likely is it that a random preregistered study will replicate? Why can't we come to a consensus about some fraught topics like ego depletion?
Chris Chambers is a professor of cognitive neuroscience at Cardiff University. His primary research focuses on the psychology and neurobiology of executive functions and higher cognition. He is also interested in the relationship between science and the media, ways the academic community can better contribute to evidence-based public policy, and methods for improving the reliability and transparency of science. You can reach Chris via email at chambersc1@cardiff.ac.uk, follow him on Twitter at @chrisdc77, or learn more at his website.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Human bias in the definition of intelligence (with Alene Anello)
Read the full transcript here.
Are all animals equally intelligent but in different ways? Do some animals perceive the passage of time differently from humans? Are our definitions of intelligence biased towards our own human strengths and therefore not fairly applicable to other animals? Is a baby human's pre-linguistic communication (like crying) analogous to the ways other animals communicate? Is civil litigation the best strategy for defending animal rights? Human lawyers represent their clients, but can other animals be clients? Can other animals be plaintiffs or defendants in human courts?
Alene Anello is the founder of Legal Impact for Chickens, a litigation nonprofit that seeks to make animal cruelty a liability. Before founding Legal Impact for Chickens, Alene graduated from Harvard Law School, clerked for a federal judge, and then started litigating for animals. She has worked at People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), the Animal Legal Defense Fund, and The Good Food Institute. Her undergraduate degree is also from Harvard. Alene is committed to helping chickens to honor the memories of her two beloved avian family members, Conrad and Zeke. Find out more about her and her work at legalimpactforchickens.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Guess culture vs. ask culture (with Will Eden and Sam Rosen)
Read the full transcript here.
How straightforwardly should we communicate our preferences to others? How many times does a person need to say "yes" relative to the number of times they say "no" so that a relationship can be maintained? Most people probably use a mix of asking and guessing; but under what conditions should each strategy be employed? What are the costs and benefits for the askers, guessers, and the people of whom the explicit or implicit request is being made? Since even the act of asking a question can be revealing, how can we know when to disclose certain pieces of information about our preferences? Does asking or guessing work better in small or large groups? Is it more polite to guess or ask? How does "tell" culture differ from ask and guess cultures? Does asking for consent (instead of guessing about whether or not the person consents) in sexual situations kill the mood?
Will Eden was on the podcast back in episode 040. You can read more about him there!
Sam Rosen was on the podcast back in episode 002. You can read more about him there!
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Are we all the heroes of our own stories? (with Cate Hall)
Read the full transcript here.
Is our adoption of beliefs primarily motivated by wanting to be the heroes of our own stories? Why do we have such a hard time understanding the stories other people are telling about themselves and the world? How can we reduce political polarization? How plausible are the various theories (conspiracy or otherwise) around the origins of COVID? Why don't the EA, Rationalist, and related communities focus more on transforming political landscapes? Free speech is incredibly important, of course; but does absolute free speech tip the scales in favor of misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda? Has the internet fundamentally changed the way we converse with each other, or has it merely scaled up and accelerated those conversations while preserving their original characteristics? Is there ultimately a way to land on a principled answer around free speech and censorship? Does a globally optimum free speech policy even exist, or are we stuck picking from a lineup of equally unsavory options?
Cate Hall is a co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of Alvea, a newly clinical stage EA biotech company. She is also the co-founder and President of Juniper Ventures, a biosecurity and pandemic preparedness foundry. She is a former Supreme Court litigator and former no. 1 female poker player in the world. She tweets at @catehall.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Content moderation and its dis-content-moderators (with Ada Palmer)
Read the full transcript here.
How does the current information revolution compare to previous information revolutions? What kind of event or set of events counts as an information revolution? Why do new information technologies usually amplify the most extreme voices first? Why are intentions not very useful as a metric for determining whether a particular kind of censorship is good or bad? When, if ever, is censorship appropriate or morally acceptable? Why were officials of the Inquisition much more worried about slight deviations in theology than outright agnosticism or atheism? What are the implications of using AI to censor certain kinds of information? What do people misunderstand about history? Why are there so many more futuristic dystopian stories than utopian stories? What is "plural" agency, and why do we need more stories about it?
Ada Palmer is a cultural and intellectual historian focusing on radical thought and the recovery of the classics in the Italian Renaissance. She works on the history of science, religion, heresy, freethought, atheism, censorship, books, printing, and on patronage and the networks of power and money that enabled cultural creation in early modern Europe. She teaches in the History Department at the University of Chicago, and her first book is Reading Lucretius in the Renaissance. Find out more about her at adapalmer.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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Exploring sex science and pseudo-science (with Mary Roach)
Read the full transcript here.
What are some surprising discoveries in the science of sex? What should we do when animals break human laws (e.g., when they commit manslaughter, steal, or even jaywalk)? Is a capacity for suffering the primary characteristic — or perhaps even the sole characteristic — that imbues an animal with moral status? How do science writers ensure faithful and accurate accounts of fields in which they may not be experts? Is there any evidence that humans could have psychic abilities like telepathy, telekinesis, etc.? People often err by being too credulous or too skeptical; so what level or shape of skepticism should be brought to bear on claims that are surprising, counterintuitive, or outlandish?
Mary Roach is the author of the New York Times bestsellers STIFF, SPOOK, BONK, GULP, GRUNT, and PACKING FOR MARS. Her newest book FUZZ: When Nature Breaks the Law, debuted in September 2021. Mary has written for National Geographic, Wired, and The New York Times Magazine, among others, and her TED talk made the TED 20 Most Watched list. She has been a guest editor for Best American Science and Nature Writing, a finalist for the Royal Society's Winton Prize, and a winner of the American Engineering Societies' journalism award, in a category for which, let's be honest, she was the sole entrant. Find more about her at maryroach.net.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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The worst mistakes people make with diet and exercise (with Menno Henselmans)
Read the full transcript here.
What is willpower, really? What are the differences among willpower, self-control, self-discipline, and other related concepts? What are the best ways to become more self-disciplined? What are the differences between enthusiasm and motivation? What are the most effective motivators? What are fixed, performance, and growth mindsets? It's possible to work too hard and thus degrade our productivity; but is it possible to be too productive? What does it really mean to "work"? Why are there so many competing kinds of diet advice? What are the best ways of dealing with cravings? Are there physical, non-psychological correlates for cravings? What are some of the most common or worst mistakes people make with diet and exercise?
Menno Henselmans is a former business consultant turned international public speaker, scientific researcher, and educator. His works have been published in over a dozen languages, and his website was ranked the #1 fitness website by The Huffington Post. He recently published the bestselling book The Science of Self-control: 53 tips to stick to your diet, be more productive and excel in life.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Communicating what you really mean (with Misha Glouberman)
Read the full transcript here.
Why is most communication advice so fluffy? How can we actually communicate better? Why do we sometimes fail to say what we mean or what needs to be said? What counts as "nonviolent" communication? To what extent is avoidance of conflict and confrontation a result of agreeableness versus cowardice? What aspects of divorce aren't talked about enough?
Misha Glouberman helps people communicate and connect better. He teaches a course called How to Talk to People About Things, online and in person, that helps people get better outcomes in their most important conversations at work and at home. He is an expert facilitator and designer of online and in-person events. He hosts the Trampoline Hall Lectures in Toronto, and is the co-author, with Sheila Heti, of The Chairs Are Where The People Go. He does lots of online events, so join his email list to learn more about them.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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Taking pleasure in being wrong (with Buck Shlegeris)
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How hard is it to arrive at true beliefs about the world? How can you find enjoyment in being wrong? When presenting claims that will be scrutinized by others, is it better to hedge and pad the claims in lots of caveats and uncertainty, or to strive for a tone that matches (or perhaps even exaggerates) the intensity with which you hold your beliefs? Why should you maybe focus on drilling small skills when learning a new skill set? What counts as a "simple" question? How can you tell when you actually understand something and when you don't? What is "cargo culting"? Which features of AI are likely in the future to become existential threats? What are the hardest parts of AI research? What skills will we probably really wish we had on the eve of deploying superintelligent AIs?
Buck Shlegeris is the CTO of Redwood Research, an independent AI alignment research organization. He currently leads their interpretability research. He previously worked on research and outreach at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. His website is shlegeris.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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A philosophical theory of jerks (with Eric Schwitzgebel)
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To what extent does thinking about ethics actually cause a person to behave more ethically? Do ethicists behave more ethically than the average person, or are they just better at justifying their unethical behavior? Why do we sometimes have strong negative reactions to people who seem "too" moral — even if they're genuinely altruistic and not just acting as though they're better than everyone else? Is morality inherently motivating? More specifically, are some kinds of moral beliefs more motivating than others (e.g., beliefs obtained through reasoning vs. beliefs adopted because of social pressures vs. implicit beliefs to which our brains are predisposed for evolutionary reasons, etc.)? In philosophical terms, what is a jerk? How many kinds of jerks are there? Are philosophers mostly trying to find the truth, or are they mostly just playing logic games?
Eric Schwitzgebel is a professor of philosophy at University of California, Riverside. He has published widely in moral psychology and philosophy of mind, including on the moral behavior of ethics professors, on introspection and consciousness, and on the role of science fiction in philosophical thinking. His most recent book is A Theory of Jerks and Other Philosophical Misadventures. He blogs at The Splintered Mind.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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How meanings get words and social sciences get broken (with Literal Banana)
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How do meanings get words? What is ethnomethodology? Some attempts at defining words are successful; but why do some words seem to become more slippery the more we try to pin down their meanings? What sorts of problems uniquely plague the social sciences? What subtle aspects of the placebo effect are not noticed or easily forgotten by researchers? How can social science researchers clarify and strengthen the meanings of words in their questionnaires? More broadly, what are some of the less-talked-about ways that the social sciences can become more robust and reliable?
Literal Banana is literally a banana who became interested in human social science through trying to live among them. After escaping from a high-tech produce delivery start-up, she now lives among humans and attempts to understand them through their own sciences of themselves. Follow Literal Banana on Twitter at @literalbanana.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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Dealing with our "groupstruckness" and "boundedness" (with Katja Grace)
Read the full transcript here.
What does it mean to be "groupstruck"? How does groupstruck-ness differ from the bystander effect, normalcy bias, and other related cognitive biases? How do we break people out of being groupstruck? What does it mean to be a "bounded" person? How can we build up better decision-making heuristics? What sorts of decisions do people usually not quantify but should (and vice versa)? How can we make rational relationship decisions without coming across as "calculating" or cold? How does anthropic reasoning affect our hypotheses about the nature of the universe and life within it (i.e., the Fermi paradox, the simulation hypothesis, etc.)?
Katja Grace is a blogger at worldspiritsockpuppet.com and researcher at aiimpacts.org. Follow her on Twitter at @KatjaGrace.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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Math as a perspective on life (with Marcus du Sautoy)
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How can we have System-2-type reflection but with System-1-type speed? How can math be considered to be a "fast" way of solving problems? Is math discovered or invented? How can we use math to think better in everyday life? How can math education be improved? Do mathematicians have a snobbish preference for "pure" maths over applied maths? How can math be used to tell stories?
Marcus du Sautoy is the Simonyi Professor for the Public Understanding of Science and Professor of Mathematics at the University of Oxford. He is author of seven books including his most recent book, Thinking Better: the Art of the Shortcut. He has also published a play, I is a Strange Loop, which was performed at the Barbican in London in which he was also lead actor. He has presented numerous radio and TV series including a four-part landmark TV series for the BBC called The Story of Maths. He works extensively with a range of arts organisations bringing science alive for the public from The Royal Opera House to the Glastonbury Festival. He received an OBE for services to science in the 2010 New Year's Honours List and was made a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2016. Follow him on Twitter at @MarcusduSautoy or find out more about him at www.simonyi.ox.ac.uk.
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- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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A former Al-Qaeda recruiter speaks (with Jesse Morton)
Read the full transcript here.
NOTE: When we published this episode a few days ago, we were unaware that Jesse had passed away back in December of 2021. We only just learned of this fact today when a listener reached out to inform us. We're saddened by this news, and we apologize for any possible confusion or hurt we may have caused by linking to his Twitter handle, email address, etc. We have removed those items from his bio but left the link to the Light Upon Light website since it contains many of Jesse's writings and information about his life's work.
What leads people to violent extremism? Is extremism a legitimate, rational response to trauma, hardship, and powerlessness? Do some holy books make it easier to justify violence than others, or are all violent movements equally capable of extracting justifications from their holy book? To what extent does recruitment to radical movements involve "brainwashing" or overriding people's beliefs versus hooking into, shaping, and strengthening their beliefs? Are cults and radical movements the same thing? What enables people to deradicalize? How can we most effectively interact with radicalized friends or family members?
Jesse Morton was once a jihadist propagandist (then known as Younes Abdullah Muhammad) who ran Revolution Muslim, a New York City-based organization active in the 2000s that connected Muslims in the west to al-Qaeda's ideology, creating English language propaganda and collaborating with the most notorious jihadist preachers of that era. He deradicalized in 2011 and has worked since to become a leading commentator, interventionist, and innovator in the prevention and countering of violent extremism, focusing especially on jihadist, far-right, and far-left extremism. Jesse was included in Foreign Policy Magazine's 2017 "Global Thinkers" listing and holds a master's in Middle East studies from Columbia University along with licensure in substance-abuse and mental health counseling. Find more info at lightuponlight.online.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Cognitive biases and animal welfare (with Leah Edgerton)
Read the full transcript here.
What are some of the tensions between short-term and long-term thinking about how best to reduce animal suffering? Why spend time and energy working on animal welfare when human welfare hasn't even been secured? Why do so many animal rights activists and organizations have such negative reputations and elicit such strongly negative emotional reactions from the population at large when they're just trying to reduce suffering? How does animal rights activism from an effective altruism perspective intersect with the more traditional forms of animal rights activism and social justice activism? Humans tend to be more capable of empathizing (for example) with a cow than with a fish, and more with a dog than with a cow; so how can animal rights activists motivate people in a way that works with or around human cognitive and emotional biases? What are some tools for dealing with chronic pain?
Leah has been involved in the effective altruism community for a decade and in animal advocacy her whole life. She has 7 years of professional experience in farmed animal advocacy, primarily focused on movement growth and interfacing with funders. Most recently, she worked at Animal Charity Evaluators on the Communications team and then as Executive Director. Her previous work experience includes performing in the Zurich Opera, managing a small business, and founding and leading ProVeg International's China Program. She currently works as a freelance philanthropic advisor to high-net-worth individuals entering the farmed animal space. You can email Leah at leah.edgerton@gmail.com or find out more about her on her LinkedIn profile.
Further reading
- A tool to help you figure out what animal products are most harmful (as well as some caveats about the methods of the tool)
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Is it bad to coerce yourself to do unpleasant things? (with Matt Goldenberg)
Read the full transcript here.
What is non-self-coercion? What's so bad about coercing ourselves to do things we don't want to do? What is "the reconsolidation pyramid"? What are the differences between being heaven-oriented and enlightenment-oriented? What does it mean to scale trust?
Matt Goldenberg is the creator of Procrastination Playbook and the Head of Marketing at the Monastic Academy for the Preservation of Life on Earth. He spends his time meditating, helping people heal their emotional wounds, and working to prevent existential risks. Contact him via Twitter at @mattgoldenberg or via email at matt@procrastinationplaybook.net.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Our 100th episode! (with Uri Bram and Spencer Greenberg)
Read the full transcript here.
Is it possible to be both agreeable and skeptical in conversations? How can you give feedback and challenge people constructively without triggering their automatic self-defense mechanisms? More generally, how can you challenge people intellectually without riling them up emotionally? What skills are needed to be able to have detailed, productive conversations across a wide range of topics? How can you push through plateaus in the process of self-improvement? What are podcasts as a medium good for?
Find more about Spencer through his website, spencergreenberg.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Volunteering to be infected with COVID — for science! (with Josh Morrison)
Read the full transcript here.
How can we develop vaccines more quickly? What kinds of study designs are used (or could be used) during vaccine development? In pandemic situations, we need to roll out vaccines quickly; but even if we can develop and test a vaccine quickly and thoroughly, how confident can we be that there won't be long-term risks? Between ethics and pragmatics, which facet should communicators emphasize when trying to convince organizations and institutions to adopt certain vaccine development strategies? Informed consent is, of course, a hugely important requirement for using human volunteers in challenge trials; so if some people are informed, eager, and willing to volunteer their health and safety for such trials in order to aid vaccine development, then why aren't they being used more (if at all)? Since IRBs are often "all brakes and no gas", could they be given powers to accelerate research in addition to their current powers to slow or halt research? How can bioethics reviews be improved?
Josh Morrison is a serial social entrepreneur and aspiring effective altruist who has founded 1Day Sooner, Waitlist Zero, and the Rikers Debate Project. His work — in the fields of clinical trials, living organ donation, and criminal justice reform — focuses on empowering particular identity groups (research participants, kidney donors, and incarcerated people) to improve decision-making processes so as to achieve impactful policy. His projects have been covered globally in outlets such as the New York Times, CNN, the Financial Times, the BBC, Der Spiegel, Asahi Shimbun, and the South China Morning Post. His writing has been published in the Washington Post, the American Journal of Bioethics, Clinical Infectious Disease, Vaccine, Risk Analysis, Vox, STAT News, and BMJ Opinion. You can email him at josh@1daysooner.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)
Read the full transcript here.
Graphic novels have been around for a long time, so why have graphic novel sales skyrocketed suddenly in the last year or two? Is that growth representative of a possible trend away from reading text-only books? Do animated movies and TV shows allow for greater suspension of disbelief than their live-action counterparts? Does animation make it easier for movies and TV shows to push the boundaries of what's culturally acceptable? What is "soft" power, and why is it so important? How important has America's soft power been relative to its hard power over the past century? How is America's soft power affected by Americans' own views of their country? What's lacking or misguided in the ways most people think and talk about probabilities and statistics? Is it better to report predictions with very specific probabilities (e.g., "It's 67.5% likely to rain today") or with looser, more casual probabilities (e.g., "I think it'll probably rain today")?
Walt Hickey is a data journalist who founded and writes Numlock News, a daily morning newsletter about fascinating numbers buried in the news. His primary interests are in pop culture data journalism and how journalists can better integrate stats into stories. He's currently writing a book about how pop culture impacts its consumers and is the senior editor for data at Insider. He previously worked as the chief culture writer at FiveThirtyEight and has written for Marvel.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @WaltHickey and subscribe to his newsletter at NumlockNews.com.
- "If You See a 40% Chance of Rain, This Is What It Really Means"
- "Weather 101: What does a 30% chance of rain really mean?"
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Why is self-compassion so hard? (with Kristin Neff)
Read the full transcript here.
What is self-compassion? Why do people struggle so much to show themselves the same kind of compassion that they regularly show to others? How can parents find a successful middle ground between authoritativeness / harshness and permissiveness / love? Should our love for ourselves be unconditional? What's the difference between shame and guilt? What should we make of people who are neither compassionate nor cruel to themselves because they simply don't practice self-reflection? What factors during childhood lead to higher or lower self-compassion in adults? What religious, cultural, socioeconomic, or other factors contribute to differences in self-compassion? How can we still treat ourselves compassionately when we feel legitimate guilt over mistakes that have moral dimensions? Are there differences in self-compassion between men and women? What are the various components of self-compassion? How does compassion differ from related concepts like pity, sympathy, empathy, etc.? Why is it so important to us to have our feelings validated by others? Is it possible to have too much self-compassion? Do extremely antisocial people — like psychopaths or sociopaths, who typically seem not to have compassion for others — have self-compassion? Narcissists seem to "love" themselves, but is that the same as having compassion towards oneself? What are some common misconceptions about self-compassion?
Kristin Neff is currently an Associate Professor of Educational Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin. She is a pioneer in the field of self-compassion research, conducting the first empirical studies on self-compassion nearly twenty years ago. She has been recognized as one of the most influential researchers in psychology worldwide. She is author of the bestselling book Self-Compassion. Along with her colleague Chris Germer, she developed the Mindful Self-Compassion program, taught internationally, and co-wrote The Mindful Self-Compassion Workbook. Her newest book is Fierce Self-Compassion: How Women Can Harness Kindness to Speak Up, Claim Their Power, and Thrive. For more info, go to self-compassion.org.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Why it's so hard to have confidence that charities are doing good (with Elie Hassenfeld)
Read the full transcript here.
How does GiveWell's approach to charity differ from other charitable organizations? Why does GiveWell list such a small number of recommended charities? How does GiveWell handle the fact that different moral frameworks measure causes differently? Why has GiveWell increased its preference for health-related causes over time? How does GiveWell weight QALYs and DALYs? How much does GiveWell rely on a priori moral philosophy versus people's actual moral intuitions? Why does GiveWell have such low levels of confidence in some of its most highly-recommended charities or interventions? What should someone do if they want to be more confident that their giving is actually having a positive impact? Why do expected values usually tend to drop as more information is gathered? How does GiveWell think about second-order effects? How much good does the median charity do? Why is it so hard to determine how impactful charities are? Many charities report on the effectiveness of individual projects, but why don't more of them report on their effectiveness overall as an organization? Venture capitalists often diversify their portfolios as much as possible because they know that, even though most startups will fail, one unicorn can repay their investments many times over; so, in a similar way, why doesn't GiveWell fund as many projects as possible rather than focusing on a few high performers? Why doesn't GiveWell recommend more animal charities? Does quantification sometimes go too far?
Elie Hassenfeld co-founded GiveWell in 2007 and currently serves as its CEO. He is responsible for setting GiveWell's strategic vision and has grown the organization into a leading funder in global health and poverty alleviation, directing over $500 million annually to high-impact giving opportunities. Since 2007, GiveWell has directed more than $1 billion to outstanding charities. Elie co-led the development of GiveWell's research methodology and guides the research team's agenda. He has also worked closely with donors to help them define their giving strategies and invest toward them. Prior to founding GiveWell, Elie worked in the hedge fund industry. He graduated from Columbia University in 2004 with a B.A. in religion.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Shovelgloves and extreme moderation (with Reinhard Engels)
Read the full transcript here.
What is "extreme" moderation? What is the "No S" diet? What is a "shovelglove"? Why be a luddite only on the weekend? What are some better alternatives to traditional habit tracking?
In the real world, Reinhard Engels is a librarian, software engineer, and father of three. But on the Internet, he's a diet, exercise, and productivity guru. His shtick is something called "Systematic Moderation": simple, common-sense, psychology-based rules for building sustainable good habits — and a touch of humour to help you laugh away the ridiculous excuses you'll come up with trying to get out of them. Find out more about Reinhard at everydaysystems.com, watch his shovelglove demonstration, or email him at reinhard.engels@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Mental models that apply across disciplines (with Blas Moros)
Read the full transcript here.
What is a mental model? What are "the three buckets"? How can Galilean relativity and alloying apply to non-science parts of life? What is the goal-gradient hypothesis? Why is it useful to know about signalling, especially in a social context? How can the concept of marginal safety apply outside of investing? More generally, why should people learn about mental models?
Blas Moros is writer, thinker, and entrepreneur. He's the CEO of Frontier and the founder of Latticework. Find more about him at blas.com, or follow him on Twitter at @blasmoros.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Accessing pure consciousness at any moment (with Loch Kelly)
Read the full transcript here.
What is "awakening"? What is a "stateless" state? What is nonduality? Why and how do some spiritual practitioners experience a dissolution of their sense of self? Do these altered or enlightened states require thousands of hours of practice to achieve, or are they always inside us, waiting to be noticed and accessed at any time? Can these states be accessed through a variety of paths and methods? Is there a certain kind of person that does better or worse at achieving these states?
Loch Kelly, M.Div., LCSW is an award-winning author, licensed psychotherapist, and recognized leader in the field of meditation and awakening. He is the founder of the nonprofit Effortless Mindfulness Institute and has worked in community mental health, established homeless shelters, and counseled family members of 9/11 victims. Loch graduated from Columbia University and received a fellowship to study in Sri Lanka, India, and Nepal. Loch has collaborated with neuroscientists at Yale, UPenn, and NYU in the study of how awareness training can enhance compassion and wellbeing. Loch is dedicated to reducing suffering and supporting people to live from open-hearted awareness. He is known for his warm sense of humor and his trust that awakening is the next natural stage of development. He teaches the advanced-yet-simple nondual pointers and direct methods of Effortless Mindfulness, informed by psychology and social justice. Loch lives in upstate New York with his wife Paige and their cat Duffy. Please go to lochkelly.org/em to find more information and free practices.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Fight, flight, freeze, fawn (with Sasha Raskin)
Read the full transcript here.
When does positivity become toxic? When is it appropriate (or not) to give advice? Can depression really be healed without systemic changes? What are some ways that society at large gaslights people? Why do women sometimes not come forward after sexual assault? What is "freeze or faun"? Do men suffer as much under patriarchy as women?
Sasha Raskin is the Founder of A Beautiful Mess (ABM), a mental health organization that runs corporate talks and events to combat loneliness, depression, and mental health stigma, while fostering connection, intimacy, and equality. She founded ABM to be the resource she wished she had when she was struggling the most. You can learn more about her story here. For her mental health work, she has delivered talks for platforms ranging from Venture University to The World Economic Forum's Global Shapers Community; she has been named a Young Social Impact Hero by Thrive Global in partnership with Authority Magazine; and she'll be delivering a TEDx talk shortly titled, "The Other Pandemic: We Must End Mental Health Stigma Now".
Sasha's contact info:
- Website: abeautifulmess.org
- Email: sraskin@abment.org
- Phone: 732-630-5520
- Medium writings: https://blog.usejournal.com/@sashaalexraskins
- Calendly (to book a free chat): https://calendly.com/sraskin/15min
- Instagram: @abeautifulmess_org
- Mailing list: https://thoughtful-speaker-3766.ck.page/d42eaa3d08
Sasha also asked us to include this in the show notes:
A BEAUTIFUL MESS believes that mental health is a human right and accordingly, no one is turned away from public events for lack of funds. We also offer free resources whenever possible. A lot goes into this work so please consider supporting our mission financially. It is greatly appreciated!
- Venmo: @Sasha-Raskin
- Paypal: araskin11@gmail.com
- Cash App: $abeautifulmessorg
- Zelle: araskin11@gmail.com
Additionally, we'd LOVE to collaborate with you and your company. You can reach us / schedule a free consultation call here:
- Calendly: https://calendly.com/sraskin/15min
- E-mail: sraskin@abment.com
- Phone: 732.630.5520
- Website: abeautifulmess.org
- Follow Sasha's Writing on Medium: https://blog.usejournal.com/@sashaalexraskin
- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/abeautifulmess_org
- Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sasha-alexandra-raskin-20334813/
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
The science of addiction (with Crystal Dilworth)
Read the full transcript here.
Why do people get addicted to cigarettes? Should people use nicotine as a stimulant (without smoking it, of course)? What percent of people have a hard time quitting smoking once they start? What genetic factors predispose a person to nicotine addiction? How addictive is alcohol relative to nicotine? Is vaping less addictive and/or less negatively impactful on cardiovascular health than smoking? How can we train scientists to be better leaders? How valuable are graduate students to their advisors, mentors, and departments in various fields? How can researchers tell better stories about the data they've collected? Why are there fewer girls and women in science? Why can educators do to encourage more girls and women to work in scientific fields? Will increasing diversity in science improve science?
Dr. Crystal Dilworth is a neuroscientist, dancer/choreographer, and television host on a mission to help others better understand themselves and their world. Saturday Mornings you can find her on CBS as Mission Unstoppable's "Dr. Brain" or weekly on Voice of America as the host of VOA-Tek. Behind the camera, the Caltech-trained neuroscientist coaches both public and private organizations in how to foster meaningful communication and understanding within internal teams and externally to the public, and she loves leveraging her unconventional background in the performing arts to creatively produce large-scale public events championing science and technology. Dr. Dilworth is an AAAS IF/THEN Ambassador for STEM and lives in Jakarta, Indonesia with her husband and two cats. Find her on Instagram at @PolycrystalhD.
Further reading
- "Many Analysts, One Data Set: Making Transparent How Variations in Analytic Choices Affect Results"
- "A 'stress test' for journals: What happened when authors tried to republish a Nature paper more than 600 times?"
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Evidence, reason, and compassion for all sentient beings (with Jamie Woodhouse)
Read the full transcript here.
How can we encourage people to increase their critical thinking and reliance on evidence in the current information climate? What types of evidence "count" as valid, useful, or demonstrative? And what are the relative strengths and weaknesses of those types? Could someone reasonably come to believe just about anything, provided that they live through very specific sets of experiences? What does it mean to have a "naturalistic" epistemology? How does a philosophical disorder differ from a moral failure? Historically speaking, where does morality come from? Is moral circle expansion always good or praiseworthy? What sorts of entities deserve moral consideration?
Jamie Woodhouse works on the Sentientism worldview ("evidence, reason, and compassion for all sentient beings") — refining the philosophy, raising awareness of the idea, and building communities and movements around it. After a quarter century in the corporate world he is a now an independent consultant, coach, and volunteer. You can follow Jamie on Twitter at @JamieWoodhouse or email him at hello@sentientism.info.
Here are a few more links related to Sentientism:
- Sentientism YouTube channel
- Sentientism podcast
- Sentientism website
- Sentientism Facebook group
- All other places to find Sentientism (including Twitter, Reddit, Discord, and many others)
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Can the economy grow indefinitely? (with Alyssa Vance)
Read the full transcript here.
How is the economy like a differential equation? Can the economy grow indefinitely? Are there economic attractor states? Or are economic outcomes chaotic and/or extremely sensitive to certain variables? What should we know about progress in genetic engineering? Can you (and should you) do genetic engineering in your garage? What are some common mistakes people make when thinking about AI? Should we expect AI abilities to converge in some domains and diverge in others? Why do we sometimes collectively forget important ideas? Have we as a species grown wiser over the course of our history? How can we form high-trust communities on the internet? In the context of social media, is ease of access at cross-purposes with membership screening and/or costs, or is it possible to have both? What should we make of ephemeral communities that appear briefly, do something huge, and then disappear (like the WallStreetBets subreddit phenomenon)? What are the various types of misinformation being used in the US, Russia, China, and elsewhere?
Alyssa Vance is an engineer of AI systems, a futurist, and an entrepreneur. She is currently serving as an independent consultant for a variety of organizations interested in AI. She was previously the first employee at Apprente, which developed conversational AI for the McDonald's drive-thru and was acquired by McDonald's in 2019. She was a founder of CandleCRM, MetaMed, and GetBitcoin, and served as Executive Director of the World Transhumanist Association. She also hosts the Long Term World Improvement mailing list and other groups for discussing future technology. Alyssa has recently joined Twitter at @alyssamvance and can be reached via email at alyssamvance@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
How many minds do you have? (with Kaj Sotala)
Read the full transcript here.
What are the advantages of viewing the mind through the multi-agent model as opposed to (say) the rational / optimizing agent model? What is the "global workspace" theory of consciousness? What's going on during concentration meditation according to the global workspace theory? If our brains are composed of multiple sub-agents, then what does it mean when I say, "I believe such-and-such"? Are beliefs context-dependent (i.e., you believe P in one context and not-P in a different context)? What effects do the various therapeutic modalities and meditation practices have on our beliefs? What are the advantages of transformational therapy over other approaches?
Kaj Sotala is interested in finding ways that would allow everyone to reach their fullest potential with regard to agency, inner harmony, and well-being. He believes that the upper limits on these are somewhere very high indeed. Kaj has worked as an emotion coach, software developer, and researcher focusing on the long-term consequences of advanced artificial intelligence. One of his last research projects was the Multiagent Models of Mind article series, combining perspectives from a variety of fields ranging from psychotherapy to AI and neuroscience, for better understanding how the mind works. His website is kajsotala.fi, and he also posts articles on lesswrong.com. You can also follow him on Twitter and Facebook or email him at kaj.sotala@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Are you a wamb or a nerd? (with Tom Chivers)
Read the full transcript here.
What is a "wamb"? What are the differences between wambs and nerds? When is it appropriate (or not) to decouple concepts from their context? What are some common characteristics of miscommunications between journalists and writers / thinkers in the EA and Rationalist communities? What are "crony" beliefs? How can you approach discussions of controversial topics without immediately getting labelled as being on one team or another? What sorts of quirks do members of the EA and Rationalist communities typically exhibit in social contexts?
Tom is a freelance science writer and the science editor at UnHerd.com. He has twice been awarded a Royal Statistical Society "statistical excellence in journalism" prize, in 2018 and 2020, and was declared the science writer of the year by the Association of British Science Writers in 2021. His first book, The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy: Superintelligent AI and the Geeks Who are Trying to Solve Humanity's Future (originally titled The AI Does Not Hate You), was declared one of the Times's science books of 2019. He worked for seven years at the Telegraph and three years at BuzzFeed before going freelance in 2018, and was once described by Sir Terry Pratchett as "far too nice to be a journalist". Find out more about Tom on Twitter, UnHerd, and tomchivers.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Behind the scenes of the online dating world (with Tom Quisel)
Read the full transcript here.
How do men and women differ in their approach to online dating? How do online dating services deal with the fact that men send many times more messages to women than women send to men? How can online dating services' recommendation algorithms avoid merely recommending the most attractive people over and over to everyone? To what extent do users of such services agree about what makes a person attractive? How do transactions and interactions on these platforms shape the way users pursue short-term and/or long-term relationships? What surprising effects emerge in aggregate as a result of these transactions? How well do people really know themselves? How well do they know what kind of relationship partners would actually make them happy? How does gay male online dating (especially on Grindr) differ from heterosexual online dating? What makes for effective management and/or leadership? Is anger a useful tool for managers? How should managers weight the importance of various hiring tools (e.g., résumés, interviews, work samples, personality tests, contract periods, etc.)? What are some tools for designing highly effective self-experiments? Is there alien life in the universe? Should we be trying to reach out to aliens?
Tom Quisel is the CTO at Grindr, where he practices servant leadership and works to build a culture that values diversity, collaboration, ownership, and quality craft. He's passionate about making a positive impact on the world and is an online dating veteran with 9 years of experience in the industry, including 2.5 years as OkCupid's CTO. He has a BS in Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon, with a background in software engineering, distributed systems, data science, and machine learning. Tom lives in Santa Barbara and loves to mountain bike, explore philosophy with friends, and pursue life-long learning.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
The clash between social justice and anti-wokeness (with Amber Dawn and Holly Elmore)
Is it okay for anyone to have opinions about marginalized communities even if they're not a part of those communities? Do people in marginalized groups have special knowledge (especially tacit knowledge) about their groups that can't be known or experienced from the outside? To what extent can we know and empathize with others' experiences regardless of differences in race, socioeconomic status, gender, sexual orientation, etc.? Do oppression and discrimination tend to be caused more by active bigotry or by mere lack of care and awareness? What information (if any) does intersectionality fail to capture about people? Is describing someone intersectionally an end in itself, or is it just a way of correcting (or over-correcting) for the suppression of marginalized voices? Should ideas be discussed absent their context or implications (see: decoupling norms vs. contextualizing norms)? To what extent should we focus on individuals versus groups when attempting to fix inequities? Are individuals or groups responsible for redressing the atrocities of their ancestors? Should people be "cancelled" for their views (including their past views, even if their current views are different)? To what extent is the shifting of moral ground around social justice issues unpredictable and/or disorienting? How can democratic societies balance the need to debate difficult ideas with the risk of giving reprehensible ideas a platform? Should rules about offensiveness be enforced from the top down (e.g., from a government, a school administration, a company's board of directors, or even parents)? Is offense only "in the eye of the beholder"?
Amber Dawn is an itinerant UChicago PhD student working on Plato and Lucretius. She is interested in philosophy, emotions, mental health and therapy, effective altruism, ethics, gender, sex, anarchism, and social justice. You can find more about Amber on Facebook, Twitter, or Medium, or you can email her at contemplatonist@gmail.com.
Holly Elmore is an effective altruist with a background in evolutionary biology. After organizing EA groups at Harvard throughout her PhD, she left academia and conducts EA-style wild animal welfare research. She witnessed the rise of wokism from within American universities, and has followed developments in social justice culture both as an adversary and an interested amateur sociologist. You can find more about her at her blog.
Amber and Holly would like for us to remind you that the views they express in this conversation are their own and do not reflect the views held by their employers.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Tyler's three laws and twelve rules (with Tyler Cowen)
Read the full transcript here.
Why might it be the case that "all propositions about real interest rates are wrong"? What, if anything, are most economists wrong about? Does political correctness affect what economists are willing to write about? What are the biggest open questions in economics right now? Is there too much math in economics? How has the loss of the assumption that humans are perfectly rational agents shaped economics? Is Tyler's worldview unusual? Should people hold opinions (even loosely) on topics about which they're relatively ignorant? Why is there "something wrong with everything" (according to Cowen's First Law)? How can we learn how to learn from those who offend us? What does it mean to be a mentor? What do we know and not know about success? What is lookism? Why is raising someone else's aspirations a high-return activity?
Tyler Cowen is Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and serves as chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. With colleague Alex Tabarrok, Cowen is coauthor of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution and cofounder of the online educational platform Marginal Revolution University. Read more at his website, tylercowen.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Freezing to (not) death: cryonics and the quest for immortality (with Max Marty)
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What is cryonics? And how does it work? What do we know right now about reversing death? And what would we have to learn to make resurrection from a cryogenically frozen state feasible? How much does cryonics cost? What incentives would future people have for reviving a cryo-frozen person? How likely is it that a cryo-frozen person will be brought back in the future? Why do people (even pro-cryonics people) "cryoprastinate" and put off considering cryonics for a later time? What sorts of risks are involved in being frozen and later revived? What philosophical and ethical issues are at stake with cryonics? Would a revived person be able to integrate into a future society? Why is there stigma around cryonics in some cultures?
Max Marty is an entrepreneur and futurist who lived and worked in the Bay Area for 10 years. He's now in Austin and has been working to build the Cryonics community, including co-hosting the Cryonics Underground podcast and running the largest Cryonics discord community: The Cryosphere. He looks forward to getting back into startups in the future, this time in biotech.
Further reading
- "Lena" by qntm
- "Scientific Justification of Cryonics Practice" by Benjamin P. Best
- "Why Cryonics Makes Sense" by Tim Urban
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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The pre/trans fallacy, and why you should learn the skill of coaching (with Eben Pagan)
Read the full transcript here.
What is the vertical conception of cognitive development? Do developmental stages always occur in a predictable order? To what extent are adult humans able to continue their cognitive development? Is it better to be a specialist or a generalist? What is the "pre/trans" fallacy? What is the importance of coaching as a meta-skill? What sorts of questions precipitate insights and/or clarifications of values?
Eben Pagan is a well-known entrepreneur, teacher, and technology investor. He's launched and invested in many companies, selling over $100 million in products and services in the process.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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What does humanity need to survive after a global catastrophe? (with David Denkenberger)
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What kinds of catastrophic risks could drastically impact global food supply or large-scale electricity supply? What kinds of strategies could help mitigate or recover from such outcomes? How can we plan for and incentivize cooperation in catastrophic scenarios? How can catastrophic and existential risks be communicated more effectively to the average person? What factors cause people to cooperate or not in disaster scenarios? Where should we be spending resources right now to prepare for catastrophe? Why does it seem that governments are largely uninterested in these questions?
Dr. David Denkenberger (also known as 3D) received his master's from Princeton in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and his Ph.D. from the University of Colorado at Boulder in Building Systems (dissertation on his patented heat exchanger). He is an assistant professor at University of Alaska Fairbanks in Mechanical Engineering. He cofounded and directs the Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) and donates half his income to it. He received the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, is a Penn State distinguished alumnus, and is a registered professional engineer. He has 73 peer reviewed publications and is the third most prolific author in the existential and global catastrophic risk field. His work has been featured in more than 25 countries in over 200 articles, including articles in Science.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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To be successful, should you focus on your strengths or your weaknesses? (with Anna Paley)
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To increase our chances of success (in whatever domain and using definition of success), should we focus on boosting our strengths or shoring up our weaknesses? Are we harsher in our critiques of ourselves than in our critiques of others? What should an ideal inner monologue be like? What are some useful taxonomies of pain? Are there times when irrational, magical, emotionally-driven, and/or delusional types of thinking are useful?
Anna Paley is insatiably curious about how best to live our lives. She is a behavioral scientist and marketing professor at Tilburg University in the Netherlands. She received her PhD from New York University, Stern School of Business in 2017. You can reach her at a.paley@tilburguniversity.edu.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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When is suffering good? (with Paul Bloom)
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When (if ever) can suffering be good? Is there an optimal ratio of pleasure to pain? What is motivational pluralism? Can large, positive incentives be coercive? (For example, is it coercive to offer to pay someone enormous amounts of money to do something relatively benign or even painful or immoral?) How can moving from making judgments about a person's actions to making judgments about their character solve certain moral puzzles? Why do we sometimes make seemingly irrational judgments about the relative badness of certain actions? How does the level of controversy around an action factor into how much we publicly disapprove of it? What are the differences between compassion and empathy? Is antisocial personality disorder (AKA psychopathy or sociopathy) defined only by a lack of empathy? How have humans evolved (or not) to detect and mitigate the effects of others who feel no remorse? Is altruism especially vulnerable to remorseless people? What are the differences between narcissists and sociopaths?
Paul Bloom is Professor of Psychology at the University of Toronto, and Brooks and Suzanne Ragen Professor Emeritus of Psychology at Yale University. Paul Bloom studies how children and adults make sense of the world, with special focus on pleasure, morality, religion, fiction, and art. He has won numerous awards for his research and teaching. He is past-president of the Society for Philosophy and Psychology, and co-editor of Behavioral and Brain Sciences. He has written for scientific journals such as Nature and Science, and for popular outlets such as The New York Times, The Guardian, The New Yorker, and The Atlantic Monthly. He is the author of six books, including his most recent, The Sweet Spot: The Pleasures of Suffering and the Search for Meaning. Find more about him at paulbloom.net, or follow him on Twitter at @paulbloomatyale.
Further reading
- "Friction in Relationships from Misunderstanding the Mind" by Spencer Greenberg
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
What causes progress? And how can we stop it from slowing? (with Jason Crawford)
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What is progress? How do we (and should we) measure progress? What are the most important questions to ask in progress studies? What are the factors that lead to progress? Why has large-scale progress taken so long (i.e., why did we not see much progress until the Industrial Revolution)? Why did industrial revolution, scientific revolution, and democratic revolution all seem to start within a relatively short period of time of each other? How can we prevent progress from slowing down, stopping, or even reversing? What factors have contributed to the slowing of progress in the last 50 years? What's the state of progress in nuclear energy? What is the history of attitudes towards progress? And why is it important for people to believe that progress is good?
Jason Crawford is the founder of The Roots of Progress, where he writes and speaks about the history of technology and the philosophy of progress. Previously, he spent 18 years as a software engineer, engineering manager, and startup founder. Follow him on Twitter at @jasoncrawford.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Clearer paths and sharper ideas (with Lynette Bye)
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What are "forward-chaining" and "backward-chaining", and how do they connect with theory of change? What sorts of mental habits and heuristics prevent you from brainstorming ideas effectively? How can you harness feedback effectively to sharpen your ideas? From whom should you solicit feedback? How can you view your own products with fresh eyes? What are some common struggles people encounter when starting or changing careers, and how can they be overcome? Why are small experiments so under-used? How can we construct a sustainable work life? What are the best ways to rest and recover from overwork and burnout?
Lynette Bye is a productivity coach who works with effective altruists. Before that, she studied the psychology of self-control at Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania. You can find out more and read her blog at lynettebye.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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How to measure impact, and why we may have all been doing it wrong (with Michael Plant)
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Researchers in the Effective Altruism movement often view their work through a utilitarian lens, so why haven't they traditionally paid much attention to the psychological research into subjective wellbeing (i.e., people's self-reported levels of happiness, life satisfaction, feelings of purpose and meaning in life, etc.)? Are such subjective measures reliable and accurate? Or rather, which such measures are the most reliable and accurate? What are the pros and cons of using QALYs and DALYs to quantify wellbeing? Why is there sometimes a disconnect between the projected level of subjective wellbeing of a health condition and its actual level (e.g., some people can learn to manage and cope with "major" diseases, but some people with "minor" conditions like depression or anxiety might be in a constant state of agony)? What are some new and promising approaches to quantifying wellbeing? The EA movement typically uses the criteria of scale, neglectedness, and tractability for prioritizing cause areas; is that framework still relevant and useful? How do those criteria apply on a personal level? And how do those criteria taken together differ conceptually from cost-effectiveness? How effective are psychological interventions at improving subjective wellbeing? How well do such interventions work in different cultures? How can subjective wellbeing measures be improved? How can philosophers help us do good better?
Michael Plant is the Founder and Director of the Happier Lives Institute, a non-profit research institute that searches for the most cost-effective ways to increase global well-being. Michael is also a Research Fellow at the Wellbeing Research Centre, Oxford. He has a PhD in Philosophy from Oxford, and his thesis, entitled Doing Good Badly? Philosophical Issues Related to Effective Altruism, was supervised by Peter Singer and Hilary Greaves.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Major and minor scales of consciousness (with Andrés Gomez Emilsson)
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Should pleasure and pain be measured on logarithmic scales? How might such a scale affect utilitarian calculations? How do harmonic energy waves in the brain correspond to states of (or intensities of) consciousness? What sorts of conclusions can we draw about brain states given the resolutions and sampling rates of tools like fMRI, EEG, and MEG? What is the symmetry theory of homeostatic regulation, and how does it connect to pleasure and pain? Are uncomfortable or confused mental states computationally useful to us? To what extent can the concepts of musical consonance and dissonance map onto energy states in the brain?
Andrés Gomez Emilsson has a Master's Degree in Psychology with an emphasis in computational models from Stanford and a professional background in graph theory, statistics, and affective science. Andrés was also the co-founder of the Stanford Transhumanist Association and first place winner of the Norway Math Olympiad. His work at QRI ranges from algorithm design, to psychedelic theory, to neurotechnology development, to mapping and studying the computational properties of consciousness. Andrés blogs at qualiacomputing.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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The art of being a creative person (with Georgia Shreve)
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What is positive psychology? What is the PERMA model? From a creativity standpoint, is there a connection between music and writing? In various artistic fields, how hard is it to be creative without first achieving some level of technical mastery? How can one hone the skill of creativity? How useful is optimism for achieving happiness? What are the different sources from which humans derive pleasure? To what extent is western culture conscious of ageism? What does positive psychology have to say about interpersonal relationships? What is the value and purpose of extended education generally and degrees specifically? What is wisdom?
Georgia Shreve is a composer, fiction writer, playwright, and poet. She holds degrees from Stanford, Brown, Columbia, and PENN. Her poetry and fiction have been published in magazines such as the New Yorker, New Republic, and New Criterion, and her short story, "The Countess of M-", won the Stanford Magazine Fiction award.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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An interview with an A.I. (with GPT-3 and Jeremy Nixon)
Read the full transcript here.
What is machine learning? What are neural networks? How can humans interpret the meaning or functionality of the various layers of a neural network? What is a transformer, and how does it build on the idea of a neural network? Does a transformer have a conceptual advantage over neural nets, or is a transformer basically the equivalent of neural nets plus a lot of compute power? Why have we started hearing so much about neural nets in just the last few years even though they've existed conceptually for many decades? What kind of ML model is GPT-3? What learning sub-tasks are encapsulated in the process of learning how to autocomplete text? What is "few-shot" learning? What is the difference between GPT-2 and GPT-3? How big of a deal is GPT-3? Right now, GPT-3's responses are not guaranteed to contain true statements; is there a way to train future GPT or similar models to say only true things (or to indicate levels of confidence in the truthfulness of its statements)? Should people whose jobs revolve around writing or summarizing text be worried about being replaced by GPT-3? What are the relevant copyright issues related to text generation models? A website's "robots.txt" file or a "noindex" HTML attribute in its pages' meta tags tells web crawlers which content they can and cannot access; could a similar solution exist for writers, programmers, and others who want to limit or prevent their text from being used as training data for models like GPT-3? What are some of the scarier features of text generation models? What does the creation of models like GPT-3 tell us (if anything) about how and when we might create artificial general intelligence?
Learn more about GPT-3 here. And learn more about Jeremy Nixon and listen to his episode here.
Further reading
- "Kanye West, Donald Trump And Jim Brown: The Full Transcript"
- lsusr's website
- "The Humans Are Dead" by Flight of the Conchords
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Beyond cognitive biases: improving judgment by reducing noise (with Daniel Kahneman)
Read the full transcript here.
How can we apply the theory of measurement accuracy to human judgments? How can cognitive biases affect both the bias term and the noise term in measurement error? How much noise should we expect in judgments of various kinds? Is there reason to think that machines will eventually make better decisions than humans in all domains? How does machine decision-making differ (if at all) from human decision-making? In what domains should we work to reduce variance in decision-making? If machines learn use human decisions as training data, then to what extent will human biases become "baked into" machine decisions? And can such biases be compensated for? Are there any domains where human judgment will always be preferable to machine judgment? What does the "fragile families" study tell us about the limits of predicting life outcomes? What does good decision "hygiene" look like? Why do people focus more on bias than noise when trying to reduce error? To what extent can people improve their decision-making abilities? How can we recognize good ideas when we have them? Humans aren't fully rational, but are they irrational?
Daniel Kahneman is Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs Emeritus at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology Emeritus at Princeton University, and a fellow of the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Dr. Kahneman has held the position of professor of psychology at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem (1970-1978), the University of British Columbia (1978-1986), and the University of California, Berkeley (1986-1994). He is a member of the National Academy of Science, the Philosophical Society, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, the American Psychological Society, the Society of Experimental Psychologists, and the Econometric Society. He has been the recipient of many awards, among them the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award of the American Psychological Association (1982) and the Grawemeyer Prize (2002), both jointly with Amos Tversky, the Warren Medal of the Society of Experimental Psychologists (1995), the Hilgard Award for Career Contributions to General Psychology (1995), the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences (2002), the Lifetime Contribution Award of the American Psychological Association (2007), and the Presidential Medal of Freedom (2013). He holds honorary degrees from numerous universities. Find out more about him here.
Here's the link to the Thought Saver deck that accompanies this episode: https://app.thoughtsaver.com/embed/JGXcbe19e1?start=1&end=17
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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How to use your career to have a large impact (with Ben Todd)
Read the full transcript here.
What is 80,000 Hours, and why is it so important? Does doing the most good in the world require being completely selfless and altruistic? What are the career factors that contribute to impactfulness? How should people choose among the various problem areas on which they could work? What sorts of long-term AI outcomes are possible (besides merely apocalyptic scenarios), and why is it so important to get AI right? How much should we value future generations? How much should we be worried about catastrophic and/or existential risks? Has the 80,000 Hours organizing shifted its emphasis over time to longer-term causes? How many resources should we devote to meta-research into discovering and rating the relative importance of various problems? How important is personal fit in considering a career?
Ben Todd is the CEO and cofounder of 80,000 Hours, a non-profit that has reached millions of people and helped 1000+ people find careers tackling the world's most pressing problems. He helped to start the effective altruism movement in Oxford in 2011. He's the author of the 80,000 Hours Career Guide and Key Ideas series. Find out more about Ben at benjamintodd.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Why does psychotherapy work (when it works at all)? (with Scott Miller)
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How can we make psychotherapy more effective? How much confidence should psychotherapists have in the efficacy of their methods? How does deliberate practice differ from mere repetition? How can we overcome confirmation bias, the Dunning-Kruger effect, and other blind spots in our own fields of expertise? What are the most significant predictors of positive outcome achievement for clients in psychotherapy? When a patient has a physical ailment, doctors gather data, diagnose the ailment, and prescribe a particular treatment; but to what extent is psychotherapy similar to that model? To what extent do psychological models reflect the culture in which they're created? Has psychotherapy improved its efficacy over the course of its existence? When the therapeutic relationship seems less than optimal or even difficult, how long should clients stick with a therapist before switching to a different one? What are some meta-analyzers getting wrong when they compare treatment methods?
Scott D. Miller, Ph.D. is the founder of the International Center for Clinical Excellence, an international consortium of clinicians, researchers, and educators dedicated to promoting excellence in behavioral health services. Dr. Miller conducts workshops and training in the United States and abroad, helping hundreds of agencies and organizations, both public and private, to achieve superior results. He is one of a handful of invited faculty whose work, thinking, and research is featured at the prestigious Evolution of Psychotherapy Conference. Email him at info@scottdmiller.com or learn more at scottdmiller.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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How broken is social science? (with Matt Grossman)
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What makes studying humans harder than studying other parts of the universe? Is social science currently improving its rigor, relevance, and self-reflection? Is it improving its predictive power over time? Why have sample sizes historically been so small in social science studies? Is social science actually able to accumulate knowledge? Have social scientists been able to move the "needle" on real-world problems like vaccine adoption? Is social science becoming more diverse? Specifically, does social science have a political bias? Are universities in crisis? Do the incentive structures in universities make them difficult or even impossible to reform?
Matt Grossmann is Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University. He is also Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center and a Contributor at FiveThirtyEight. He has published analysis in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Politico, and hosts the Science of Politics podcast. He is the author or co-author of How Social Science Got Better, Asymmetric Politics, Red State Blues, The Not-So-Special Interests, Artists of the Possible, and Campaigns & Elections, as well as dozens of journal articles. You can find more about him on his website.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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How to communicate better with the people in your life (with Sara Ness)
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What are the "relating" languages? What strategies do we use when interacting with each other under various conditions? How does one formulate a new taxonomy in a field? What information can we glean from our own emotional and physical reactions? What is authenticity? What are the strengths and weaknesses of various personality typologies?
Sara Ness is a facilitator, teacher, and community-builder who is internationally known for popularizing the field of Authentic Relating. Among other things, she co-founded and ran two of the longest-running AR communities in the world, compiled the source text for Authentic Relating, and built an online platform for AR and Circling practice that has run events for more than 1,200 consecutive days. Sara has worked with tens of thousands of students in sectors from Google to Mindvalley to Burning Man, teaching authentic leadership and social health. Her passion is in understanding how people can work together to create fulfilling groups that balance belonging, productivity, and self-expression. You can email her at sara@authrev.com or learn more on her website, authrev.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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How to hack your own brain (with Elizabeth Ricker)
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Why should we be doing more experiments on our own lives? How should we approach and get started with self-experimentation? Why are such varying dietary changes able to improve people's well-being? What are some measures and interventions for improving executive function, memory and learning, emotional self-regulation, and creativity? Do brain games actually make you smarter? What are some promising nootropics? Should people use neurostimulation and/or neurofeedback devices at home? What sorts of skills can be trained through video games? When is blue light useful?
Elizabeth Ricker is the author of Smarter Tomorrow: How 15 Minutes of Neurohacking a Day Can Help You Work Better, Think Faster, and Get More Done (Little, Brown Spark / Hachette). She's the founder of Neuroeducate, a citizen DIY neuroscience and neurohacking organization, and Ricker Labs, a consultancy that helps organizations unlock mental performance. Ricker's clients have included Silicon Valley venture capital firms, technology startups, schools, and the Fortune 500. Her work has been featured on public broadcast TV, in books, in the popular press, and she's given talks in the US and abroad. Ricker's degrees are from MIT (Brain & Cognitive Science) and Harvard (Mind, Brain, & Education). Her website is ericker.com and her username is @eliricker on Medium, LinkedIn, Twitter, and Instagram.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Why do civilizations collapse? And is ours next? (with Samo Burja)
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What is "long" history? Why don't historians usually focus on what happened before recorded human history? What (if anything) is special about agriculture when it comes to the development of civilization? How far back does human civilization go, and why should we care? Have humans always been gardeners? What factors cause civilizations to crumble or thrive? Should we reboot standardized tests and college admissions every few decades so that measures don't become targets? Which destructive factors are particularly salient to modern human civilization? Why is there such a disconnect between our intuition that progress is inevitable and our knowledge that virtually all civilizations have collapsed in the past? In other words, what makes us think that we'll succeed where others have failed? How does a functional social institution differ from a failing one? What is the "great founder" theory?
Samo Burja is the founder of Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society; a research fellow at the Long Now Foundation; and a senior research fellow in political science at the Foresight Institute. Samo's studies focus on the social and material technologies that provide the foundation for healthy human societies, with an eye to engineering and restoring the structures that produce functional institutions. He has authored articles and papers on his findings. His manuscript, Great Founder Theory, is available online. You can find him on Twitter at @samoburja, on YouTube at @samoburja, or on his website, samoburja.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Utopia on earth and morality without guilt (with Joe Carlsmith)
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What are some of the challenges of defining utopia? What should a utopia look like? What are concrete versus sublime utopias? What are some of the failure modes related to various conceptions of utopia? Is it really that hard to create a shared, positive vision of the future? What is the value (or disvalue) of creating new people, especially in relation to the utopic or dystopic state of the world? What is "whole-hearted morality" versus "morality-as-taxes"? How can we encourage people to be more moral without harming them psychologically (e.g., by loading them down with guilt)? Which sorts of worldview changes are reversible? Where does clinging fit into the constellation of concepts like valuing, caring, envying, etc.? How does non-attachment differ from indifference? Is clinging always bad? Is philosophy making tangible progress as a field? Is philosophy's primary function to show us how our questions are confused rather than to give us direct answers to our questions? Has philosophy given us a clearer picture of what consciousness is or isn't?
Joe Carlsmith is a research analyst at Open Philanthropy and a doctoral student in philosophy at the University of Oxford. His research focuses on risks to humanity's long-term future. He has a BPhil from Oxford and a BA from Yale, both in philosophy. His website is josephcarlsmith.com, his blog is handsandcities.com, and his Twitter handle is @jkcarlsmith.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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How do you leverage your limitations? (with Oliver Burkeman)
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How can we leverage our own limitations? Why does converting the average human lifespan from years to other units (like weeks) give us such a shock? What are the most useful kinds of reactions to contemplating our own mortality? What causes our feeling that time speeds up as we age? What is the "importance trap"? How should we handle the frustration or disappointment caused by our inability to do everything we want or need to do? Why is patience important in the world today? What information sets are available to us in various communication media? Is there — and should there be — a disconnect between the "meatspace" world and the internet world? Which kinds of self-help advice are actually useful?
Oliver Burkeman's new book is Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals, published in the US on August 10, 2021. He is the author of The Antidote: Happiness for People Who Can't Stand Positive Thinking, and he wrote a long-running weekly column on psychology, productivity, and self-help culture for The Guardian newspaper called "This Column Will Change Your Life." His writing has also appeared in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and New Philosopher magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York. You can pre-order Four Thousand Weeks and sign up for Oliver's email newsletter "The Imperfectionist" at oliverburkeman.com or find him on Twitter at @oliverburkeman.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
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The secrets of effective learning (with Andy Matuschak)
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How can we accelerate learning? Is spaced repetition the best way to absorb information over the long term? Do we always read non-fiction works with the goal of learning? What are some less common but perhaps more valuable types of information that can be put on flash cards? What sorts of things are worth remembering anyway? Why is it important to commit some ideas to memory when so much information is easily findable on the internet? What benefits are derived from being involved in all stages of a project pipeline from concept to execution (as opposed to being involved only in one part, like the research phase)? Why should more researchers be involved in para-academic projects? Where can one find funding for para-academic research?
Andy Matuschak invents tools that expand what people can think and do. His current research focuses on a new written medium which makes it much easier to remember what you read. In previous roles, Andy led R&D at Khan Academy and helped build iOS at Apple. You can read more about his work at andymatuschak.org and follow him on Twitter at @andy_matuschak.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Exploring your shadow and healing your traumas (with Aurora Quinn-Elmore)
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What is metamodernism? How does metamodernism relate to spiral dynamics? What does it look like to apply a metamodern approach to large-scale problems? What are shadow traits, and what is shadow projection? What do our reactions about others' behavior tell us about ourselves? What's going on psychologically and physiologically when we relive past traumas? What dosages of psychedelics are most effective in a therapeutic context? How soon will psychedelic substances likely be decriminalized or legalized at the state and/or federal level in the United States? How can we enter into blissful, ecstatic, intense, or other less common psychological states without drugs or alcohol? What are the pros and cons of (especially intergenerational) co-living?
Aurora Quinn-Elmore is on a mission to understand "what's going on, and what should we do about it?" As a labor of love, she executive produced and published an audiobook version of Hanzi Freinacht's The Listening Society: A Metamodern Guide to Politics. Professionally, she is on a mission to expand legal access and to speed adoption of psychedelic therapies shaped by the wisdom and insights of the deeply rooted psychedelic guide community. She also leads the SoulSupport team at SoulPlay, which is a substance-free festival focused on ecstatic dance, contact improv, and tantric connection games. She helped form and lives in a beautiful intentional community of 12 "hackers, hipsters, and hippies" in Berkeley, California, who use the microcovid.org tool to manage covid risk in a household of diverse needs. Feel free to reach out to Aurora on Facebook at @aurora.q.elmore.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Dances with robots (with Catie Cuan)
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What is a choreographic interface? Is dance for everyone? What is dance for? What can dancers learn from roboticists, and what can roboticists learn from dancers? What are some of the practical difficulties one encounters when programming a robot to dance? Why do robots break or fail so often? What are the pros and cons of using virtual reality to train or test robots? Why don't we see more robots in everyday life? What are some everyday robotics applications coming up on the horizon? Are humans still needed in the robot training process? Can robots create art?
Catie Cuan is a dancer, choreographer, and researcher. Catie is currently a PhD Candidate in the Mechanical Engineering department at Stanford University, where she recently completed a Master's of Science in Mechanical Engineering in Spring, 2020. Her artistic and research work focuses on dance and robotics. She is a 2018 TED Resident, 2018 ThoughtWorks Arts Resident, and the 2017-2018 Artist-in-Residence at the Robotics, Automation, and Dance Lab at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. You can find Catie on Instagram at @itscatie and on her website, catiecuan.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Heaven and hell on earth: a trip to the limits of human consciousness (with Anthony David Adams)
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What is "metaphysical geometry"? What do we get out of surrendering to the idea of death? Why do some people find the sensation of intense fear to be pleasurable? Is psychosis valuable? Are all mental states valuable? Why are altered states of consciousness typically socially unacceptable, and why should we move towards accepting them? Could oxytocin be used as a less risky alternative to MDMA in therapeutic contexts?
Anthony David Adams is a visionary, inventor, activist, artist, entrepreneur, and the transformational coach / trusted advisor to the founders of the worlds greatest organizations and their teams. He's known for his capacity to support the world's most powerful leaders in doing deep inner and outer work. He holds a BA in Psychology from Edinboro University and an MS in Urban Planning from Wisconsin. As an activist, he's one of the country's leading voices on psychedelics and mental health reform — recently becoming the first person to hold space for an "underground" MDMA therapy session on national television. You'll find him in Brooklyn's Prospect Park or Presque Isle's Beach 11 playing Ultimate Frisbee and online at AnthonyDavidAdams.com, BioMythic.com, and FoundersHike.com; you can follow him on Instagram (@anthonydavidadams) or Facebook (@anthonydavidadams); or you can email him at a@175g.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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How can we save the world? (with Toby Ord)
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What is "the precipice"? Which kinds of risks (natural or technological) pose the greatest threats to humanity specifically or to life on Earth generally in the near future? What other kinds of existential risks exist beyond mere extinction? What are the differences between catastrophic risks and existential risks? How serious is the threat of climate change on an existential scale? What are the most promising lines of research into the mitigation of existential risks? How should funds be distributed to various projects or organizations working on this front? What would a world with existential security look like? What is differential technological development? What is longtermism? Why should we care about what happens in the very far future?
Toby Ord is a Senior Research Fellow in Philosophy at Oxford University. His work focuses on the big picture questions facing humanity. His current research is on the longterm future of humanity and the risks which threaten to destroy our entire potential. His new book, The Precipice, argues that safeguarding our future is among the most pressing and neglected issues we face. You can find him on Twitter at @tobyordoxford.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Risk-Driven Development and Decentralization (with Satvik Beri)
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What is risk-driven development? How should we weigh advice, best practices, and common sense in a domain? What makes some feedback loops better than others? What's the best way to take System 2 knowledge and convert it to System 1 intuition? What are forward-chaining and backward-chaining? When is it best to use one over the other? What are the advantages and disadvantages of centralization and decentralization?
Satvik Beri is a cofounder and head of Data Science at Temple Capital, a quantitative hedge fund specializing in cryptocurrency. He is a big believer in the theory of constraints, and he has a background helping companies find and eliminate major development bottlenecks. Some of his interests include machine learning, functional programming, and mentorship. You can reach him at satvik.beri@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Statistics Intuitions and Social Science Reproducibility (with Stuart Buck)
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How should math be taught in primary and secondary schools? How much is science denialism caused by statistics illiteracy or lack of statistical intuitions? What do p-values actually mean? Under what conditions should null results be published? What are some of the less well-known factors that may be contributing to the social science reproducibility crisis?
Stuart Buck was Vice President of Arnold Ventures (a $2 billion philanthropy) for nine years and led its nationally-renowned work on improving research quality and reproducibility. He has advised DARPA, IARPA, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the GAO on rigorous research, and he was recently asked by Nature to publish a commentary on reproducibility. You can find more about him at stuartbuck.com, follow him on Twitter at @stuartbuck1, or email him at stuartbuck@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Genomics and Health Outcomes (with Noor Siddiqui)
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Why has there been such an explosion of progress in genomics recently? What's the right way to think about how genes affect the likelihood of experiencing certain health outcomes? How can people mitigate genetic risks for their potential children? What sorts of moral obligations (if any) do parents have to mitigate potential genetic risks for their children? How does Orchid's focus differ from other companies in the same space? What is "junk" DNA? What percentage of our genes are identical to our siblings, to other humans, and even to other animals?
Noor Siddiqui is the Founder and CEO of Orchid, a reproductive technology company. Prior to Orchid, Noor was an AI researcher at Stanford where she worked on applications of deep learning to genomics with Anshul Kundaje and computer vision applied to medical imaging with Sebastian Thrun. Noor has spoken internationally about her work at the intersection of technology and medicine at events like Milken's Global Conference, WebSummit, and Kaiser Permanente's Executive Leadership Summit. Her work has been covered by The Washington Post, Forbes, TechCrunch, among other outlets. Noor is also a recipient of the Thiel Fellowship, a grant program spawned by Paypal founder and Facebook board member, Peter Thiel, supporting breakthrough technology companies. Noor earned her M.S. and B.S. in Computer Science from Stanford University. Follow her on Twitter, connect with her on LinkedIn, visit her website, or email her at noorsiddiqui@orchidhealth.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Rationality and Cognitive Science (with Anna Riedl)
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What is the Great Rationality Debate? What are axiomatic rationality and ecological rationality? How irrational are people anyway? What's the connection between rationality and wisdom? What are some of the paradigms in cognitive science? Why do visual representations of information often communicate their meaning much more effectively than other kinds of representations?
Anna Riedl is a cognitive scientist with a primary research interest in judgement and decision-making under unmeasurable uncertainty, a field in the intersection of psychology, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence. She loves the scientific method so much that she regularly spreads her joy about it in various formats of science communication. In the end, she cares about ideas being applied in the real world, solving problems, and benefitting humanity. This means she often plays the role of being an interface between the two worlds of ideas and their application by humans. Over the last years, she has founded and lead different organizations in the DACH region that work on improving the world. You can find more about her at riedlanna.com, follow her on Twitter at @annaleptikon, or email her at annariedl.office@gmail.com.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Self-Improvement and Behavior Change (with James Norris)
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How can you live your best life? What's a good definition of "wisdom"? What are some possible taxonomies of life outcomes? What are some low-hanging fruit in the realm of self-improvement? What are some useful behavior change frameworks and techniques?
All his life, James Norris has been searching for the best ways to change himself and change the world. He started as an entrepreneur at age 6 and since has co-founded or helped build 9 businesses and 16 organizations, including the premier conference for the effective altruism movement, the world's first global lifehacking event series, Southeast Asia's first social innovation hackathon series, and a university for today's Leonardo da Vincis. He graduated from the University of Texas at Austin as a triple major / quadruple minor. Find more about him at jamesnorris.org and upgradable.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Everyday Statistics and Climate Change Strategies (with Cassandra Xia)
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What are "shed" and "cake" projects? And how can you avoid "shed" projects? What is the "jobs to be done" framework? What is the "theory of change" framework? How can people use statistics (or statistical intuition) in everyday life? How accurate are climate change models? How much certainty do scientists have about climate change outcomes? What are some promising strategies for mitigating and reversing climate change?
Cassandra Xia (@CassandraXia) is the creator of Adventures in Cognitive Biases and co-founder of the non-profit Work on Climate. She is fascinated by how human biases affect the actions we take as a society and how to hack human psychology to get the change that we want. She is previously affiliated with the MIT Media Lab, MIT CS department, and Google AI. More of Cassandra's work can be found at cassandraxia.com and workonclimate.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Conscious Processes and Intelligence (with Richard Nisbett)
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What sorts of things do the conscious and unconscious parts of our minds do? How we can make people more intelligent? How much is intelligence heritable vs. environmental? What's the value (or disvalue) of holding interviews during the hiring process? When do we over- and under-use cost-benefit analyses?
Richard E. Nisbett is one of the world's most respected psychologists. His work focuses on issues in social psychology and cognitive science. His newest book Thinking: A Memoir is both an intellectual autobiography and a personal history. It's available for sale on Amazon, Amazon.co.uk, and Barnes and Noble. To learn more, go to RichardNisbett.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Educational Restructuring and Investing (with Matt Greenfield)
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How can we restructure schools around student needs? What sorts of skills do people actually need in the 21st century, and how can education systems reorganize themselves around those skills? What sorts of things do impact investors look for when investing in education companies? How can teachers cultivate critical thinking and passion in the classroom? Should prejudice and privilege be addressed at the primary or secondary levels of education?
Matt Greenfield is a managing partner of Rethink Education, a venture capital firm that invests in education technology businesses. He previously helped start Rethink Autism and worked for ABS Ventures. He holds a B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in English from Yale University and has taught at Columbia University, the City University of New York, and Bowdoin College. You can find him on Twitter and Clubhouse.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Chinese Culture and Love Addiction (with Ava King)
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How is Chinese culture different from American culture? For what reasons do Chinese people get plastic surgery, and how do those reasons differ from those of their American counterparts? What is love addiction? Are 12-step programs the only way (or the best way) of overcoming addiction?
Ava King is an international singer, songwriter, and producer based out of LA. She was born and raised in France, spent a decade in China, then decided to move to LA to pursue her passion of music. As a songwriter, Ava co-wrote "I Just" for K-pop group Red Velvet's second album that debuted at #1 on the Billboard World charts and #1 on the Korean Pop Charts. The album has since gone on to become 9X Platinum in Korea and has accumulated over 2.3 million plays on Spotify. Her songs have also been featured on The Ellen Show, Empire, and Crazy Rich Asians. You can find her on Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok; and you can email her at avakingbookings@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
User Engagement and Expert Intuition (with Rob Haisfield)
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How do you design a product to handle user failure? How do you keep users motivated even when they fail? How do you successfully onboard new users? What are some different kinds of search behavior? How and when does gamifying a product increase user engagement and success? What psychological components do games attempt to engage with? How do we develop expert intuition in a domain?
Rob Haisfield is a behavioral product strategy and gameful design consultant. He applies behavioral science and game design principles to products to influence user behavior. This is based on the thesis that when people use tools in ways that allow them to more effectively accomplish their goals, they gain more value. He also works as a behavioral product strategist for Spark Wave and its various portfolio companies, recently focusing on the onboarding for GuidedTrack. You can learn more about him at robhaisfield.com, follow him on Twitter at @RobertHaisfield, or email him at rob@influenceinsights.io.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Psychological Models and Parenting (with Divia Eden)
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What is the Internal Family Systems model? What kinds of information do our emotions give us? How many agents live in our heads? And, if there's more than one, how well do those agents cooperate? What is operant conditioning? What is attachment theory? How does parenting differ from animal training? Is decision theory able to unify many different psychological theories?
Divia Eden has always been interested in understanding how minds work, and she currently spends most of her time unschooling her three kids. You can find out more about her at becomingeden.com or follow her on Twitter at @diviacaroline.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Productive Conversations and Feedback Loops (with Julia Carvalho)
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How can we become better leaders? How can we give better feedback to others? How can we be better listeners? How can we give good advice? How do startups (or even existing companies) build great products? What sorts of things do experts actually know? When is it useful to poll customers for feedback?
Julia Carvalho serves as an advisor to startups doing impactful things in the world. She thinks a lot about product strategy, teams, and prioritization. She likes emailing with strangers and can be found at juliawcarvalho@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
EA Efficacy and Community Norms (with Stefan Schubert)
Read the full transcript here.
How can people be more effective in their altruism? Is it better for people to give to good causes in urgent situations or on a regular basis? What causes people to donate to less effective charities even when presented with evidence that other charities might be more effective? We can make geographically distant events seem salient locally by (for example) showing them on TV, but how can we make possible future events seem more salient? How much more effective are the most effective charities than the average? How do altruists avoid being exploited (in a game theoretic sense)? What sorts of norms are common in the EA community?
Stefan Schubert is a researcher in philosophy and psychology at the University of Oxford, working on questions of relevance for effective altruism. In particular, he studies why most donations don't go to the most effective charities and what we can do to change it. He also studies what norms we should have if we want to do the most good, as well as the psychology of the long-term future. You can email him at stefanfredrikschubert@gmail.com, follow him on Twitter at @StefanFSchubert, or learn more about him at stefanfschubert.com.
Further reading
- "The Psychology of (In)Effective Altruism"
- "The many obstacles to effective giving"
- "Donors vastly underestimate differences in charities' effectiveness"
- "Supportive Scepticism"
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Explanatory Depth and Growth Mindset (with Daniel Greene)
Read the full transcript here.
What is the illusion of explanatory depth? Are there forms of debate or dialogue that actually help people to change their minds (instead of stacking the incentives such that people feel forced to harden and defend their views)? What is epistemic "debt"? Should people avoid having opinions on things where they haven't thought deeply and carefully about all of the relevant considerations? How does one choose which experts to trust? What is "growth mindset"? How can social science be used to do good in the world?
Daniel Greene is a postdoctoral researcher and fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, where he works with Dr. Megan Palmer to research methods of engaging life scientists with the potential safety and security risks of their work. He has a Ph.D. in Education from Stanford and worked as a social psychologist and data scientist at the Project for Education Research that Scales. You can find more information about Daniel at danielgreene.net.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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AI Safety and Solutions (with Robert Miles)
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Why is YouTube such a great way to communicate research findings? Why is AI safety (or alignment) a problem? Why is it an important problem? Why is the creation of AGI (artificial general intelligence) existentially risky for us? Why is it so hard for us to specify what we want in utility functions? What are some of the proposed strategies (and their limitations) for controlling AGI? What is instrumental convergence? What is the unilateralist's curse?
Rob Miles is a science communicator focused on AI Safety and Alignment. He has a YouTube channel called Rob Miles AI and runs The Alignment Newsletter Podcast, which presents summaries of the week's research. He also collaborates with research organizations like the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and the Future of Humanity Institute to help them communicate their work.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
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Online and IRL Relationships (with Steve Dean)
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To what extent do we put ourselves, each other, and our relationships in fixed, sharply-defined boxes? Do we exude trust to people we meet? How often do we project our own wants and needs onto other people? How do the experiences of men and women differ on dating apps? Why do men behave so badly towards women (both online and in the meatspace)? How can people improve their dating experiences? How do we tell our own stories? And how do we recognize the ways in which our lives and the lives of others can intersect such that everyone is better off? How can we recognize and avoid "takers"?
Steve Dean is an NYC-based dating & relationship coach, researcher, educator, and community builder. He offers dating coaching and experimental events through Dateworking.com, and hosts the Dateworking podcast which explores the nuances across relationships in romance, friendships, workplaces, and communities. You can find Steve on Instagram, LinkedIn, Facebook, Medium, and Twitter: @stevenmdean. In his spare time, Steve delights in daylong walks through natural and built environments, punctuated by photography and puppy petting.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Utilitarianism and Its Flavors (with Nick Beckstead)
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What is utilitarianism? And what are the different flavors of utilitarianism? What are some alternatives to utilitarianism for people that find it generally plausible but who can't stomach some of its counterintuitive conclusions? For the times when people do use utilitarianism to make moral decisions, when is it appropriate to perform actual calculations (as opposed to making estimations or even just going with one's "gut")? And what is "utility" anyway?
Nick Beckstead is a Program Officer for the Open Philanthropy Project, which he joined in 2014. He works on global catastrophic risk reduction. Previously, he led the creation of Open Phil's grantmaking program in scientific research. Prior to that, he was a research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. He received a Ph.D. in Philosophy from Rutgers University, where he wrote a dissertation on the importance of shaping the distant future. You can find out more about him on his website.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Cults and Social Needs (with Alice Mottola)
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What is a cult? What do people seem to mean when they use the word "cult"? Do cults always have a charismatic and/or narcissistic leader? Are cults always harmful? Are people ever really "tricked" into being in a cult? What needs are met by cults that aren't met by standard social structures? What sorts of interactions induce intimacy and/or solidarity among people?
Alice Mottola is a perpetual student with experience in writing software, directing plays, conducting social psychology research, and planning unduly elaborate parties. Her passion for creating spaces that facilitate connection is not unrelated to her long-standing interest in groups that are broadly termed "cults." She is currently pursuing a dual Master's in theology and social work at Boston University. You can email her at alicemottola@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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History and Longevity (with Will Eden)
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What are the benefits of studying history? How do we find useful historical analyses? Can learning about history save us from repeating it? Is America decaying as a nation, empire, and/or leading world power? Generally speaking, what causes empires to fail? Is the aging and decay experienced by organic bodies analogous to the aging and decay experienced by an empire (or by any complex system, for that matter)? What are all the reasons organisms age, decay, and die? What are the most promising avenues of exploration in longevity research? What kind of stressors on our bodies are beneficial? How accurate is the efficient market hypothesis? What kinds of catalysts force a market to value assets at their "intrinsic" value? How rational are markets?
William Eden is currently an entrepreneur-in-residence at biotech founder and investor Errik Anderson's family office, Ulysses Diversified. Previously, he worked with Peter Thiel for six years and jointly led the Life Science Investments group at Thiel Capital focused on early-stage breakthrough biomedical technologies. His previous roles include the Chief Analytics Officer of Azumio, a digital health startup, and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the 2008 global financial crisis. His Twitter handle is @WilliamAEden, and he and his wife have additional essays and podcasts and more at their blog.
NOTE: After the recording, Will contacted us with the following correction. There is a family lineage with a congenital growth hormone deficiency called Laron Syndrome that lives in villages in Ecuador, but he had incorrectly identified them as indigenous people. They actually migrated there from Spain, where other members of the family still live with the same genetic mutation. They suffer from fewer diseases of aging like cancer and diabetes, but their lifespan is indeed no longer than average due to vulnerability to accidents and injuries. This serves to demonstrate the tradeoff between longevity and robustness under free living conditions for these types of anti-aging interventions.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Knowledge Management and Deugenesis (with Jeremy Nixon)
Read the full transcript here.
What is "The Index"? What are some benefits of externally compiling and organizing one's knowledge? When is spaced repetition useful? How can we co-opt our visual systems to boost memory? Would we all be more interested in producing an external personal knowledgebase if we could feel on a visceral level how much information is constantly being forgotten? How and when should we move up and down the ladder of abstraction? What sorts of problems can be solved by simulation? What is a generative model (as opposed to a predictive model)? How can constraints improve creativity? How useful are credentials as a guide to how much a person knows and whether or not a person is "allowed" to have an opinion on a topic? What do credentials actually signal about a person? What are "fox" and "hedgehog" thinking? What is deugenesis?
Jeremy is the founder of Consilience, an immersive information retrieval company. Previously he did machine learning research at Google Brain and studied Applied Mathematics at Harvard University. Jeremy works relentlessly towards aggregating knowledge, acquiring knowledge, and creating new knowledge. Find him on Twitter at @jvnixon or email him at jnixon2@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Crypto Pros and Cons (with Sam Bankman-Fried)
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What's the current state of cryptocurrency? What are the good and bad aspects of crypto? To what extent have the promises of crypto panned out? How do blockchain and cryptocurrency even work anyway? What are "proof of work" and "proof of stake"? What are the differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum? What sorts of transactions are made easy or possible by the blockchain that are difficult or impossible to perform with traditional currencies? What are non-fungible tokens (NFTs)? What (if anything) prevents people from doing nefarious things with cryptocurrencies? What are some of the exciting, positive things coming up on the crypto horizon?
Sam Bankman-Fried is the co-founder and CEO of FTX. Before venturing into crypto, Sam was a trader on Jane Street Capital's international ETF desk. He traded a variety of ETFs, futures, currencies, and equities, and designed their automated OTC trading system. He graduated from MIT with a degree in physics. Find him on Twitter at @SBF_FTX.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Behavior Change and Interpersonal Connection (with Ting Jiang)
Read the full transcript here.
How does a behavioral scientist apply her knowledge to her own life? What fraction of our behaviors are deliberative, and what fraction are automatic? In what ways are we insufficiently scientific in our attempts to diagnose behavior problems? To what extent is introspection important for behavior change? Can behavior change take place without relatively accurate quantification and measurement? (For example, we know exact values for our bank account balance or our weight on the scale, but we don't know exact values for our level of happiness or how much progress we've made in meditation. To encourage behavior change in those more nebulous domains, is it useful to assign numbers to everything?) Can (and should) "sacred" things be quantified? What's the difference between customs and norms? Why do we often fail to generalize our own skills from one domain to other domains? How can we use stories to encourage behavior change? What are some new and different ways of connecting with others, especially during a pandemic? How can everyday items or events be tweaked to encourage behavior change?
Ting Jiang is a global expert and thought leader in behavioral change and innovation. She received her Ph.D. in Experimental Economics but publishes findings across a broad range of disciplines. For the past 5 years, until January 1st, 2021, she served as a principal at Dan Ariely's behavioral science lab at Duke University, during which she led projects globally helping diverse organizations, companies, and tech startups to improve the behavioral uptake and retention of programs and products. The work she is most proud of is her own attempt to develop various science-based games for behavioral change, including a board game called "Healthy Money" for forming better spending and saving habits. Most recently, she's been calling for a collective reflection on whether the world is currently in the dark ages of human flourishing despite our advancement in tech and natural sciences. Find out more about her here.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Scout and Soldier Mindsets (with Julia Galef)
Read the full transcript here.
What are "scout" and "soldier" mindsets? How can we have productive disagreements even when one person isn't in scout mindset? Is knowing about good rationality habits sufficient to reason well? When do we naturally tend to be in scout mindset or soldier mindset? When is each mindset beneficial or harmful? Are humans "rationally irrational"? What are the two different types of confidence? What are some practical strategies for shifting our mindset in the moment from soldier to scout?
Find out more about Julia at juliagalef.com.
Further reading
- The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't by Julia Galef
- Rationally Speaking (podcast)
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Jennifer Vanderhoof — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Social Science and Science Journalism (with Jesse Singal)
Read the full transcript here.
Should we trust social science research? What is the open science movement? What is the "file drawer" effect? How can common sense help social science dig itself out of the replicability crisis? Is social science in the West too focused on interventions for individuals? How useful is the Implicit Association Test? How useful is the concept of "grit"? How should journalists communicate confidence or skepticism about scientific results? What incentive structures stand in the way of honestly and openly critiquing scientific methods or findings?
Jesse Singal is a contributing writer at New York Magazine and cohost of the podcast Blocked and Reported. He is also the author of The Quick Fix: Why Fad Psychology Can't Cure Our Social Ills, which came out April 6, 2021, and which you can order here. You can read more of his work at jessesingal.substack.com.
Further reading
- "Want to End Bullying? Get the Popular Students to Help" by Jesse Singal
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Search Data and Self-Improvement (with Seth Stephens-Davidowitz)
Read the full transcript here.
What can we learn about people from search data? What does search data reveal about human nature that surveys and polls fail to reveal? What patterns of searching do people exhibit when they're suffering from mental and physical illnesses? How can we use data to make better decisions, become better parents, date better, and be happier?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is a data scientist, author, consultant, and keynote speaker. His book Everybody Lies was a New York Times bestseller and an Economist and PBS NewsHour Book of the Year. He has worked as a contributing op-ed writer for the New York Times, a data scientist at Google, and a visiting lecturer at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He received a BA, Phi Beta Kappa, from Stanford in philosophy and a PhD in economics from Harvard. Find more about him at sethsd.com, follow him on Twitter at @seths_d, or email him at seth.stephens@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Poker and Productivity (with Chris Sparks)
Read the full transcript here.
What can people learn from playing poker? What makes someone good at playing games? What is the OODA loop? What is a "premortem" analysis of decision-making? How should we think about decisions that aren't easily (or even possibly) reversible? What do people get wrong when they're trying to be more productive? What is a "forcing function"? How can people create their own forcing functions?
Chris Sparks is a professional poker player and the founder and CEO of Forcing Function. You can find his full bio here, follow him on Twitter at @SparksRemarks, or find more of his work via these links:
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Jennifer Vanderhoof — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Moral Discourse and the Value of Philosophy (with Ronny Fernandez)
Read the full transcript here.
What is normative hedonism? What's the difference between wanting something and wanting to want something? Should we only care about the experiences of conscious beings? What's wrong with moral discourse? Does philosophy ever actually make progress, or is it still only discussing the things that were discussed a thousand years ago? What is (or should be) the role of intuition in philosophy? Why should people study philosophy (especially as opposed to other disciplines)? What can we do to create more rationality or systematic wisdom in the world? How can we disagree better?
Ronny Fernandez is a philosophy PhD student at Rutgers University and high school dropout. He is interested in formal epistemology, human rationality, and AI alignment. He blogs at figuringfiguring.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @TrueBrangus or send him an email at anonnerdfrenzy@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Superintelligence and Consciousness (with Roman Yampolskiy)
Read the full transcript here.
What is superintelligence? Can a superintelligence be controlled? Why aren't people (especially academics, computer scientists, and companies) more worried about superintelligence alignment problems? Is it possible to determine whether or not an AI is conscious? Do today's neural networks experience some form of consciousness? Are humans general intelligences? How do artificial superintelligence and artificial general intelligence differ? What sort of threats do malevolent actors pose over and above those posed by the usual problems in AI safety?
Dr. Roman V. Yampolskiy is a Tenured Associate Professor in the department of Computer Science and Engineering at the University of Louisville. He is the founding and current director of the Cyber Security Lab and an author of many books including Artificial Superintelligence: a Futuristic Approach. Dr. Yampolskiy's main areas of interest are Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cybersecurity. Follow him on Twitter at @romanyam.
Further reading
- Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Jennifer Vanderhoof — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Meditation and Ontology (with Daniel Ingram)
Read the full transcript here.
Why should we meditate? What are the typical developmental stages as one progresses along the contemplative path? What does it mean to "hold an ontology loosely"? Are some meditative techniques inappropriate for some practitioners? Are there risks associated with meditation?
Further reading
- Mastering the Core Teachings of the Buddha by Daniel Ingram
- A Path with Heart by Jack Kornfield
- The Dharma Overground
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Jennifer Vanderhoor — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Rationality Education and Dating (with Jacob Falkovich)
Read the full transcript here.
What's the best way to teach rationality? How do you communicate rationalist principles to people who aren't already interested in thinking more clearly? What has COVID taught us about how people typically make decisions and think about problems? Where and how can the rationalist community improve? Does rationalism have anything to say about (for example) exercise, spirituality, art, or other parts of the human experience that aren't typically addressed by rationalists? What are some positive aspects of social media (especially Twitter)? What's going on with recent dating trends? Has dating gotten harder in recent years? How many people does it take to make a pencil? Is there a case to be made for anti-antinatalism?
Jacob is the only rationalist with an MBA. He writes Putanumonit.com and is famous for bringing the idea of decision matrices to the pages of the Economist and the New York Times. Jacob is Russian-Israeli and is currently living in Brooklyn with his wife and two guinea pigs. Follow him on Twitter at @yashkaf.
Further reading
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Jennifer Vanderhoof — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Preference Falsification and Postmodernism (with Michael Vassar)
Read the full transcript here.
How much preference falsification is occurring in society? What's the difference between conflict theory and mistake theory? Why is postmodernism useful to understand?
Michael Vassar was the President of the Singularity Institute from 2009 to 2012. Subsequently, he has worked in business consulting, especially in association with cutting edge science, although these days he primarily invests his own assets. You can contact him at michael.vassar@gmail.com.
Further reading
- My IRB Nightmare — the Slate Star Codex codex account of trying to do a study in a hospital that we discuss in the episode
- GPT-3 — the A.I. language model discussed in the episode that was released by OpenAI
- Preference falsification
- Conflict theory vs. Mistake theory and people's views on society
- The "postmodern" analysis / article that Michael brought up
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Jennifer Vanderhoof — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Moral Foundations Theory and Constructive Dialogue (with Caroline Mehl)
What is the Moral Foundations Theory? Is the MFT a model that's only intended to describe human behavior and psychology, or does it also make claims about what's actually true about morality? Why does morality exist in the first place? How can the MFT be used to have better conversations across ideological and cultural divides? What (if anything) helps groups to cohere successfully as they increase in size? Why is internet communication especially hostile and prone to misunderstandings? What common mistakes do people make in in-person communication? What is OpenMind?
Caroline Mehl is the Co-Founder and Executive Director of OpenMind, a non-profit EdTech organization that leverages behavioral science to foster openness to diverse perspectives and equip people with skills for constructive dialogue. OpenMind's evidence-based tools have been used by more than 35,000 people across more than 15 countries. As part of her role, Caroline advises workplaces, universities, philanthropists, and communities on how to create more open and inclusive cultures. You can learn more about OpenMind and use it yourself at openmindplatform.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Past / Future Selves and Intrinsic Values (with Simone Collins)
How well do we identify with our past and future selves? What are some of the ways we can develop self-awareness and emotional control? How can we learn more and learn faster at a younger age? How can we best express emotions like sadness and anger? What are our intrinsic values, and what should they be?
Simone is a Cambridge-educated crumpet addict who joyfully attacks life with her husband Malcolm Collins, with whom she founded an art commission startup (ArtCorgi) and raised a miniature private equity fund to acquire a management business (Travelmax), which the couple presently operates. Together the Collinses founded and run The Pragmatist Foundation, a non-profit dedicated to fighting tribalism and promoting pragmatic approaches to life's challenges. Simone dreams of someday parenting seven children with Vulcan-like logic and grace, but will settle with someday parenting seven children with dogged human endurance.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Happiness and Hedonic Adaptation (with Rob Smith)
Why do we seem to get less and less pleasure from some things over time? And what can we do about it? Are there dimensions along which some people can't be satiated (e.g., perhaps narcissists can't get "enough" adoration)? What are the structures of needs and incentives in cults? How should we think about the pursuit of long-term happiness, which sometimes requires us to sacrifice some amount of short-term happiness? Are people more likely to make choices that verify their identities or that improve their identities?
Robert Smith is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at Tilburg University in the Netherlands. He has previously taught at the University of Michigan and Ohio State University. He does research on enjoyment and the many ways that people learn about themselves. You can learn more about him here.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship (with Miles Lasater)
How can we better make decisions under uncertainty? What are some of the different ways of being uncertain? What are some powerful venture patterns? How can founders and venture capitalists reduce risk in their startups and portfolios? What is the nature of innovation? How can investing be used to do good in the world?
Miles Lasater has started 3 companies, 2 nonprofits, and 1 family with 4 kids. He has been a founder, VC, angel investor, business school professor, board member, donor, improv comedian, and dancer. He currently is Founding Partner of Purpose Built Ventures and serves on the board of tech nonprofit Curious Learning. Miles also hosts a podcast called Startups for Good (which you can also follow on Twitter at @startups4good). Find out more at mileslasater.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Sexuality and Dominance Hierarchies (with Malcolm Collins)
Are our brains equipped to handle the increasing velocity of information exchange? What's going on psychologically when we take offense to an idea? Should some kinds of research results be suppressed or hidden? Should some kinds of research be avoided altogether? What are some of the faults in the old paradigms and models in sexuality research? What are some of the surprising findings in the research of sexual attraction? What are dominance hierarchies, and how do they relate to governance?
As a neuroscientist-turned-entrepreneur-and-investor, Malcolm leverages day jobs in VC, private equity, and business operations in a passionate battle to bring Gentleman Science back into vogue. He founded and directs The Pragmatist Foundation, a non-profit dedicated to encouraging pragmatic approaches to life's big challenges—all of which he personally likes to tackle arm-in-arm with his wife, Simone, who he met while getting his MBA at Stanford. Together, they co-founded an art commission startup (ArtCorgi) and subsequently raised a miniature private equity fund to acquire a travel management business (Travelmax), which the couple now operates. Their books are:
- The Pragmatist's Guide to Sexuality
- The Pragmatist's Guide to Life
- The Pragmatist's Guide to Relationships
You can reach Malcolm via email at collinsmalcolm@gmail.com. And you can learn more about Malcolm and Simone's company at witan.io.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)
What are the best strategies for improving ourselves? How are line managers useful? Why does Rob prefer long-form content for the 80,000 Hours podcast? What are the sorts of things humans value and why? In what ways do research ethics considerations fail to achieve their stated objectives? Why are prediction markets useful?
Rob Wiblin is the Head of Research at 80,000 Hours where he investigates how people can do more good in the course of their career and produces a long-form interview show called the 80,000 Hours Podcast. He studied genetics and economics in Australia before moving to the UK to help develop the emerging field of effective altruism. You can learn more about Rob at robwiblin.com, learn more about his research work at 80000hours.org, and follow him on social media at @robertwiblin.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Antagonistic Learning and Civilization (with Duncan Sabien)
Why do "antagonistic" teachers exist in popular culture but not in the classroom? What happens to student outcomes when "antagonistic" learning is implemented in real classrooms? What is the Field Theory of Parenting? What are things that we can do for others but can't do for ourselves? How can we notice and utilize costly and unfakeable signals? What is the core definition of civilization? How can we influence others ethically? Is explicit communication always better than implicit?
Duncan wants to leave the universe noticeably different than it was before he arrived, and he's currently trying to do this through making things and teaching people. He has a background in LEGO, parkour, and middle grades education, and is easily manipulated by people quoting Ender's Game. You can find out more about him at thirdfoundation.github.io.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Worldviews and Framing (with Elizabeth Kim)
How are ideologies like snowglobes? What is "convert communication"? What are some algorithms for creativity? How can framing help us to make better decisions?
Elizabeth Kim is an applied behavioral scientist designing products to help people be happier, healthier, and wealthier. She is the music streaming industry's first Behavioral Scientist at Spotify where she uses experimentation to understand and improve user experience. Previously, she has designed experiments at Jet.com/Walmart, the Fabulous (a Google award-winning habit tracking app), and Dan Ariely's behavioral science lab at Duke University. In her free time, she runs studies for prosocial initiatives and spontaneous curiosities.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Intelligence and Creativity (with Scott Barry Kaufman)
What are the various components of intelligence? How does intelligence relate to IQ? Can IQ be trained or improved? What is creativity, and how does it relate to intelligence? Can creativity be trained or improved? What is self-actualization, and how does it relate to Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs? What is transcendence?
Scott Barry Kaufman, Ph.D., is a humanistic psychologist exploring the depths of human potential. He has taught courses on intelligence, creativity, and well-being at Columbia University, NYU, the University of Pennsylvania, and elsewhere. He hosts The Psychology Podcast, and is author and/or editor of 9 books, including Transcend: The New Science of Self-Actualization, Wired to Create: Unravelling the Mysteries of the Creative Mind (with Carolyn Gregoire), and Ungifted: Intelligence Redefined. In 2015, he was named one of "50 Groundbreaking Scientists who are changing the way we see the world" by Business Insider. Find out more at ScottBarryKaufman.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Scientific Progress and the Replication Crisis (with Geoff Anders)
NOTE: The beginning of this conversation touches on some of the same themes that were discussed in the recent episode with Michael Nielsen. After that, though, this conversation heads off in other directions.
Is scientific progress speeding up or slowing down? How can we understand and explain the replication crisis in the social sciences? In the context of research, does speed have a quality all its own in the same way that quantity has a quality all its own? What are Geoff and Spencer doing in the social science field that's significantly different from what others are doing?
Geoff Anders is the founder of Leverage Research, a non-profit research institute that studies the history of science to learn how a better understanding of early stage science can inform scientific efforts today. Geoff is also the co-founder of Paradigm, a training and coaching organization that uses knowledge of learning, thinking, and motivation to help people think better and better pursue their missions. Geoff has a PhD in Philosophy from Rutgers University. You can learn more about Geoff via his website and can follow him on Twitter at @geoffanders.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Enlightenment and Sex Work (with Aella)
What is enlightenment? What are the different kinds or definitions of enlightenment? What was Aella's religious upbringing like, and why did she lose her faith? How did Aella get into sex work, and what has her career as a sex worker been like? How do we ask great questions, and what is Askhole?
You can find out more about Aella on her website, knowingless.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Scientific Progress and Political Feedback Loops (with Michael Nielsen)
Is scientific progress speeding up or slowing down? What are the best strategies for funding research? What is "para-academia," and what are the pros and cons of being a para-academic researcher? What are the feedback loops in politics that cause politicians and their constituents to react to each other?
Michael Nielsen is a scientist who helped pioneer quantum computing and the modern open science movement. He also has a strong side interest in artificial intelligence. All are part of a broader interest in developing tools that help people think and create, both individually and collectively. His most recent book is Quantum Country, an introduction to quantum computing. Find out more at his website, michaelnielsen.org, or follow him on Twitter at @michael_nielsen.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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52 Living Ideas and the Four Systems Model (with Shrikant Rangnekar)
What is 52 Living Ideas? How does the Four Systems Model help to classify parts of human nature? What tools do civilizations create that allow individuals to transact with each other without knowing each other? Why has "form follows function" been the most influential idea ever for Shrikant? What is intuitive analytic shuttling, and how does it help to improve creative output?
Shrikant Rangnekar runs 52 Living Ideas, a community of learners engaged in joint exploration of the world, ourselves, and ideas. He conducts daily, open Zoom meetups on psychology, philosophy, and self-improvement.
Also, here's the diagram Shrikant mentions in the episode:
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Learning and Governance (with Emerson Spartz)
What's the best way to learn? Why is learning how to learn "the most important skill"? When should we explore, and when should we exploit? What are the merits and demerits of various models of governance? How should we think about the problems around free speech?
Named "King of Viral Media" by Forbes, Emerson Spartz is one of the world's leading experts on internet virality and has been featured in major media including CBS, CNBC, CNN, and hundreds more. Spartz was named to both Forbes' and Inc Magazine's "30 Under 30" lists. Spartz is the founder of Dose, a top digital media company with $35 million in funding. Dose's videos generate billions of video views, and the company's broadcast TV show, Morning Dose, airs on CW stations nationwide. Previously, Spartz created 20+ of the world's largest viral content sites, including OMG Facts, attracting 50 million visitors monthly. At age 12, Spartz founded Mugglenet, the #1 Harry Potter site and one of the internet's largest communities. By the age of 19, Spartz became a New York Times bestselling author after publishing his first book. Find out more about Emerson at his website: emersonspartz.com
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Liberalism and Conservatism (with Cassandra Xia and Hank Racette)
Why do liberals and conservatives disagree so vehemently? Why are things so polarized in the US right now? What are the core values held by liberals and conservatives? How much value does tradition have? Where and why do liberals and conservatives disagree about climate change? Where and why do liberals and conservatives disagree about free speech and political correctness?
Cassandra Xia's bio: "Cassandra Xia (@CassandraXia) is the daughter of Chinese scientists who emigrated to the United States. Her parents raised her on a blend of logic, reason, and immigrant can-do attitude. She emerged as a strategic liberal that strongly believes in free speech and compassionate dialogue. She recently left her job as a Google software engineer to work on climate change. Cassandra's work can be found at cassandraxia.com and workonclimate.org."
Hank Racette's bio: "I'm an uneducated fifty-something father of six who divides his time between writing industrial automation software and opining about the precariousness of western civilization and the enemies, mostly unwitting, arrayed against it. I'm fascinated by words, mathematics, evolution, human nature, emergent behavior, and saving the most successful nation and culture in history from the innocent mistakes of smart people with good intentions. I'm a free-speech extremist and, in general, what used to be called a classical liberal. I can be found on Ricochet, where I write as Henry Racette, on Facebook, and reached via email at hank.racette@gmail.com."
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Psychedelics and Comedy (with Sarah Rose Siskind)
What are the pros and cons of taking psychedelics? What goes into creating a good setting for psychedelic use? How can experiencing depression change someone's political views? What is comedy? What is the relationship between comedy and social status? Why is it that comedians can get away with saying things that other people can't say?
Sarah Rose Siskind is a science comedy writer based in New York City. She's the cofounder of HelloSci.Com, a consulting group that makes smart people funny, and the producer of Drug Test, a show about Psychedelics. Previously, she wrote comedy for Hanson Robotics, StarTalk with Neil deGrasse Tyson on Fox, and several shows on Facebook Watch. She's written jokes for the White House Press Correspondents dinner and spoken at Comic Con! In the words of Marie Curie, "follow me on Twitter."
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Comfort Languages and Nuanced Thinking (with Kat Woods)
What's the best way to help someone who's going through a difficult situation? What are the four states of distress? What are "comfort languages"? How can we introduce more nuance into our everyday thinking habits? When gathering information and forming opinions, how do you know who to trust? What's the difference between intelligence and wisdom?
Kat Woods is the co-founder of Charity Entrepreneurship, a startup incubator for effective altruist charities. It provides training, seed funding, and the other things necessary to kickstart an effective nonprofit. Previously, Kat co-founded Charity Science Outreach, a meta-organization that raised nine counterfactual dollars for high impact charities for every dollar spent. Subsequently she co-founded Charity Science Health, a direct poverty charity that received multiple grants from GiveWell and has served hundreds of thousands of families in India. You can find more about Kat at her website or on Twitter at @kat__woods.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Learning and Goal-Setting (with Michael Simmons)
Read the full transcript here.
How much time should we set aside for learning? What are the most effective ways of portraying and communicating ideas? Should we set long-term goals for ourselves, or allow our goals to emerge over time? What are the pros and cons of being a celebrity in a field (or in general)?
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Music
Affiliates
Aesthetics and Polyamory (with Sam Rosen)
Read the full transcript here.
How can we improve art museums? Does aesthetics need something equivalent to the effective altruism movement? What is steel-aliening? What are the most important social skills to learn, and how can we learn them? Can anybody become polyamorous? What does it take to succeed in a polyamorous relationships? Why do societies decay over time?
Sam Rosen is a rationalist who has studied philosophy and has done psychology research. He writes a lot on his Facebook page. His artblog is called Opulent Joy. And his two favorite blog posts he's written are here and here. If you want to get in touch with Sam, message him on Facebook or email him at samuelblakerosen@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
- Gayla Castle — Transcriptionist
Music
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Meditation and Enlightenment (with Jeremy Stevenson)
What's a good definition of meditation that cuts through all the dogma and differing methodology? What are the techniques, skills, and insights associated with meditation? How does meditation connect to religion and spirituality, and is meditation valuable without those components? And what is enlightenment?
Jeremy hails from Adelaide, Australia, and has a PhD in clinical psychology with a dissertation focused on the effects of self-compassion on social anxiety. During his PhD he became intensely interested in meditation, sitting several shorter retreats which eventually culminated in sitting longer retreats, including a 3-month retreat in Nepal. He is now working as a clinical psychology registrar as well as doing research work for both Flinders University and Spark Wave. His current meditation interest is the perplexing skill of nondual mindfulness. Email Jeremy at jeremy.david.stevenson@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Forgiveness and E-Prime (with Josh Castle)
What is the goal of this podcast? How does a person become a polymath? What are the conceptual difficulties surrounding forgiveness? How can E-Prime help to highlight logical fallacies? How can we improve educational media?
You can email Josh at joshrcastle@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Lines of Retreat and Incomplete Maps (with Anna Salamon)
What does it mean to leave lines of retreat in social contexts? How can we make sense of the current state of the world? What happens when we run out of map? How does the book Elephant in the Brain apply to the above questions?
Anna Salamon does work with the Center for Applied Rationality and the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. She studied math and great books in undergrad, and philosophy of science for a small bit of grad school before leaving to work on AI-related existential risk. Fav. books include: R:AZ; HPMOR; “Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance,” and “The Closing of the American Mind” (as an intro to the practice of reading books from other places and times, not to evaluate the books, but to gain alternate hypotheses about ourselves by asking how the authors might perceive us). She blogs a bit at lesswrong.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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THINKERS Workshop (with Spencer Greenberg)
Why is it important to learn about cognitive biases? What are the various modes of nuanced thinking? What kind of mindset do people have to have in order to change their minds? When should we make "gut", intuitive decisions? When should we make careful, measured, reflective decisions?
This episode was originally recorded on the THINKERS Workshop show. Watch the original recording here, or visit THINKERS Workshop or THINKERS Notebook to learn more.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Death and Story-Telling (with A.J. Jacobs)
Are there more meaningful and ethical ways of honoring the dead than our traditional rituals? Why is it useful to adopt probabilistic thinking in our everyday lives? What sorts of things do we value intrinsically (i.e., that we would value even if they had no other positive benefits)? What do stories do well and not so well?
A.J. Jacobs is an author, lecturer, and human guinea pig. He has written four New York Times bestsellers, including The Year of Living Biblically and Drop Dead Healthy. He is a contributor to NPR, Esquire, and the New York Times, among others. His most recent book is Thanks a Thousand, which chronicled his quest to thank a thousand people who had even the smallest role in his morning cup of coffee. You can find A.J. on Facebook and Twitter, or you can email him at ajjacobs1@gmail.com.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
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Life Experiments and Philosophical Thinking (with Arden Koehler)
What is 80,000 Hours? What sorts of people should become entrepreneurs? How can you run cheap experiments on yourself? What are some beneficial modes of philosophical thinking?
Arden Koehler is a researcher and writer at 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit whose mission is to help people use their careers to help solve the world's most pressing problems, and an active member of the effective altruism community. Arden has a PhD in philosophy from New York University, with a specialisation in ethics and attitudes toward time, and a B.A. in philosophy from University of California, Berkeley. You can check out her work at 80,000 Hours, and you can email her at arden@80000hours.org.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Negotiation and Psychological Immune Systems (with Julie Kheyfets)
How can we move beyond zero-sum, adversarial negotiations? What are some tools we can use to overcome physical and psychological pain? How can we develop psychological resilience and stability?
Julie is an executive at an A.I. company and winner of the 2019 USA Track & Field's Women's 100-Mile Trail Championship. You can find more about her on LinkedIn.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
Education and Charity (with Uri Bram)
Are universities a cult? Do charitable interventions like de-worming work? How much should we trust the conclusion of well-respected charity evaluators like GiveWell?
Uri is the publisher of The Browser and The Listener, the world's favourite curation newsletters, and the author of Thinking Statistically and The Business of Big Data. Uri can be found at uribram.com or uri@uribram.com.
As we mention in the audio, this episode includes a critique of Givewell. Givewell were kind enough to listen to our recording and send us a reply. Here's their reply:
We're excited to see this level of detailed engagement with our research. As Uri and Spencer note, one of the key reasons we share the full analysis behind our recommendations is precisely this: inviting fresh perspectives and debate on the conclusions we reach.
We operate in an expected value framework when recommending top charities. We recommend deworming programs because of the possibility that deworming may have a large impact on long-term economic well-being. At less than $1 per treatment, we think it's a pretty good bet. We've discussed our views publicly over the years, such as in our blog post titled "Deworming might have huge impact, but might have close to zero impact."
The case for deworming's long-term benefits does rely on a relatively small number of studies. And the mechanisms by which it has long-term impact are unclear. But when we account for these uncertainties in our impact estimates, it still remains promising.
We've also supported research to better understand the impacts of deworming. We funded part of a study that measured the economic welfare of children who received deworming treatments 20 years later. This work was recently published, and at a high level, seems to support the story of deworming's long-term effects.
Thanks again for discussing this topic—it's an important and thorny one!
Givewell also mentioned some corrections to some of the claims made in the episode. They said:
[We] noticed some comments outside of the deworming conversation that didn't reflect our views and flagged a few of the more important ones below.
- In addition to the groups you listed, our current list of top charities includes Malaria Consortium's seasonal malaria chemoprevention program and Helen Keller International's vitamin A supplementation program. The full list is here: https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities.
- The two outcomes we recommend our current list of top charities for are averting deaths (not improving nutrition) and increasing incomes/consumption. We are open to considering additional outcomes in the future.
- Uri said the following in regards to cash transfers: "I might be wrong but I think GiveWell doesn't count—if you took the money and spent it on a one-off way that didn't increase your long-term wealth or income—then GiveWell wouldn't count that." This is not accurate. We model short-term as well as longer-term benefits to cash transfers. This is reflected in our cost-effectiveness model and discussed in this blog post.
Staff
- Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
- Josh Castle — Producer
- Uri Bram — Factotum
Music
Affiliates
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