The next wave

Over the past twenty years, media has evolved from user-generated content in the social graph to algorithmic feeds, and now to long-form subscription models. Each wave has produced new winners, from Facebook and Instagram to TikTok and YouTube. But the platforms that drove growth are now failing creators: Instagram shows posts to only 4% of followers, while TikTok delivers views without building real audiences. The pattern is clear across two decades. Formats keep getting richer, from text to photos to short video to long-form content. Distribution becomes more direct, moving from social graphs to algorithms to subscriptions. The relationship between creators and audiences deepens, from anonymous viewers to paying subscribers. This subscription pivot changes everything because it flips the incentives from optimizing for clicks to building trust. Substack proved the model works with over 50 writers earning more than a million dollars annually and 5 million paid subscriptions. But no existing platform can fully capitalize on this shift. YouTube can't abandon its $50 billion ad business, Substack started text-first and is catching up to video, and others are constrained by their existing models. The opportunity exists for a platform that combines better creative tools with a viewing experience that works across video, audio, and text. Published on Subwave https://subwave.app/@paul/post/the-next-wave