Early 2026 Signals: Rates, Indexing, and the Red Sea Question

As 2026 gets underway, early signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Matthew Chicalace of Hellmann Worldwide Logistics to break down the growing gap between quoted and paid rates, early NYFI movements post–Chinese New Year, and what those signals really say about the market.

The conversation also dives into rising interest in index-linked contracts, how forwarders and carriers are approaching contract season, and why volatility remains structural. Finally, Lars unpacks the latest developments around the Red Sea reopening, geopolitical risks tied to Iran and Greenland, and how quickly trade lanes could shift again in 2026.

A timely discussion on how shippers are navigating uncertainty—and why flexibility and alignment matter more than ever.