Year-End 2025: What Changed, What Didn’t, and What’s Coming in 2026

In this 2025 year-end review, Caroline, Lars, and Don Davis reflect on a year defined by tariff whiplash, uneven demand, and persistent gaps between quoted vs. paid spot rates. They also look ahead to 2026, where the base case remains continued volatility—with the Red Sea/Suez question, shifting capacity, and geopolitics keeping markets on edge.

Key themes covered:

• Why 2025 ended “mixed”: SCFI up while paid, loaded spot rates stayed uneven
• How tariffs reshaped shipper behavior toward more just-in-time ordering and priority services
• Don’s view from ZIM: strong and growing interest in index-linked contracts, including first-time adopters asking how structures work
• The outlook for 2026 rate volatility: continued big swings driven by uncertainty, capacity rebalancing, and potential routing changes

A clear wrap on what defined 2025—and what could make 2026 even harder to forecast!