SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan

05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 1994

10:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns

14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough

20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year

23:10 - What defines a market regime change

27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities

39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers

48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes

56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress

01:02:30 - Portfolio construction and the role of managed futures in uncertain markets

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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